Peter Schiff: America's Economy Is A House Of Cards

Via SchiffGold.com,

In a recent podcast appearance with Glenn Diesen, Peter makes a compelling case regarding the fragile state of the American economy, highlighting the unsustainable reliance on monetary inflation, trade deficits, and artificially low interest rates. He contrasts the challenging road ahead for America against the comparatively smoother transition other parts of the world might experience by turning their productive capacities inward. 

Peter starts by revealing the fundamental imbalance driving the U.S. economy—its dependence on consuming goods it doesn’t produce, paid for by printing dollars:

We’re able to consume what we don’t produce, and we pay for it by printing money. And so the world gets our inflation and we get their stuff. So we’ve got the better end of the bargain. Now they use our paper to buy our financial assets, our stocks, our bonds, our real estate. So they are accumulating assets and they’re getting the income from those assets. So what we’re doing is we’re indulging our present and we’re sacrificing our future.

This indulgent behavior is unsustainable, Peter argues. To truly stabilize the U.S. economy, Americans must be prepared for sacrifices and cuts in public spending, reforms that politicians are loath to pursue:

Because in order to free up resources to build factories, we can’t spend all this money and run these huge deficits to crowd out all of our capital. So we need to cut Medicare, Social Security, national defense, and Americans have to stop spending. We need to save our money to build those factories. They’re not going to just grow out of thin air. So there’s a lot of hard work that needs to be done. But of course, nobody has a stomach for that. Our whole economy is a house of cards built on the overvalued dollar and our trade deficits and our excess consumption and artificially low rates. And all that’s about to come toppling down.

Far from solving the economic woes, Peter warns that the current combination of monetary policy and tariffs will exacerbate existing inflation and economic stagnation, pushing America deeper into recession:

We already have stagflation now. We’re just going to have higher inflation and a weaker economy. We’re going to be in a recession and there’s going to be a lot of inflation. Mainly because the tariffs redirect the inflation out of the financial markets back into the real economy. We’ve benefited from diverting our inflation to the stock market and the bond market. That’s all going to reverse. That’s why if you look at what’s happening today, the foreign stocks are going way up. I own a lot of stocks today that are up 3%, 4%, 5%, 6% that are in Europe, they’re in Asia, they’re in South America. Money is being sucked out of the US right now, the opposite of what Trump wants. Capital is not coming to America, it’s fleeing America.

Given this reality, Peter offers practical advice to investors, encouraging a pivot away from overpriced U.S. assets toward more fundamentally sound investment opportunities abroad, particularly in precious metals:

They should own mining stocks, precious metals mining stocks that will benefit from the rising gold price. Gold is over 3,000. It’s going higher as the world de-dollarizes. Central banks are going to be buying more gold and less treasuries. That’s great for gold mining stocks. That’s not good for the U.S. government, because who’s going to buy those treasuries? The deficits are going to be much bigger in this recession. I think the Fed is going to buy them, and that’s going to be even more inflation. Not only are the tariffs going to be pushing up prices, but so will inflation that the Fed is going to create. The weak dollar is going to add to the pain of the tariffs.

Peter concludes that while America faces daunting structural economic challenges, many international economies have an easier path forward. They can simply redirect their existing productive capacity inward, decoupling themselves from a collapsing dollar:

All the world has to do is turn its productive capacity that already exists and use those factories, use those workers, use those resources and supply chains and infrastructure to make stuff for themselves instead of making stuff for Americans. 

… 

So the world has an easy task and actually a pleasant task because they get to consume. The hard work is here in America because we got to figure out how to consume without factories, which we can’t do. So we have to build non-existing factories. That takes a lot of resources. That takes a lot of effort. So we have the difficult road ahead, not the world.

Be sure to listen to Peter’s latest podcast, where he analyzes economic news in even more detail.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 14:40

Temu, Shein Slash Massive US Ad Spend, Threaten Higher Prices Over Tariffs

Two of China’s fastest-growing e-commerce players are dialing back their U.S. expansion strategies as tariffs and trade restrictions reshape the competitive landscape.

Temu and Shein, whose ultra-low prices and aggressive digital marketing campaigns have challenged industry incumbents like Amazon, have significantly cut U.S. advertising spending and notified customers of upcoming price increases - amid mounting pressure from President Donald Trump’s recent tariff hikes on Chinese goods.

According to data from analytics firm Sensor Tower, Temu cut its average daily advertising spend on platforms including Meta, X (formerly Twitter), and YouTube by 31% in the two weeks leading up to April 13. Shein’s spending fell by 19% over the same period. Temu also eliminated its entire U.S. spend on Google Shopping as of April 9, the day new tariffs on Chinese goods were introduced.

The two companies sent near-identical emails to U.S. customers this week citing “global trade rules and tariffs” as drivers of higher operating expenses and warning that “price adjustments” will begin on April 25.

The pullback underscores how Trump’s revived trade confrontation with China, which includes ending the de minimis exemption that allowed duty-free imports under $800 - is reverberating across the U.S. consumer and tech sectors. The new rules, set to take effect May 2, impose tariffs of up to 90% of a parcel’s value or $75–$150 per shipment, a dramatic shift for companies that relied on small-package loopholes to flood the U.S. market with inexpensive goods.

“The decision to close the de minimis loophole has been like a targeted weed killer,” Mike Ryan, an analyst at Smarter Ecommerce, told the Financial Times.

The price advantage that helped Temu and Shein amass tens of millions of American customers is now eroding, and with it, their digital dominance. Temu’s app, once a top-five staple in Apple’s U.S. App Store, has dropped to 75th place, according to the BBC. Shein, previously in the top 15, is now ranked 58th, reflecting a rapid decline in user acquisition.

Both companies have urged customers to shop before prices rise and said they were “doing everything we can to keep prices low and minimize the impact on you.”

Advertising Cuts Could Hit U.S. Platforms

The shift could dent revenues for major U.S. advertising platforms. Meta, whose advertising business brought in $18.4 billion from China-based advertisers last year, more than 10% of its total, warned investors in January that tariffs and trade disputes posed a material risk to its business.

Temu and Shein were among the largest Chinese advertisers in the U.S. in 2023 and early 2024. Temu alone was the top U.S. advertiser on X last year. According to marketing intelligence company WARC, the recent ad cuts will likely affect sales, as “they need to constantly advertise to keep customers,” said James McDonald, the company’s director of data intelligence and forecasting.

While their combined U.S. market share remains under 1%, according to Consumer Edge, Temu and Shein accounted for more than 30% of the 1.5 million daily tariff-free shipments to the U.S. last year, based on congressional reports and customs data.

The loss of the de minimis privilege, long criticized by U.S. lawmakers as an unfair advantage, has bipartisan support. In 2023, 1.4 billion packages entered the U.S. under the provision, up from 140 million in 2013, customs authorities report.

Amazon and U.S. Retailers Eye Opportunity

Amazon, which has faced margin pressure from the deep discounts offered by its Chinese rivals, is already adjusting. Last November, the e-commerce giant quietly launched Haul, a sub-platform for products under $20, in what many viewed as a direct response to Temu and Shein.

Now, with tariffs set to level the playing field, U.S. retailers may see an opening to reclaim market share, though it could come at the cost of higher prices for consumers.

As Trump’s administration pushes ahead with additional levies that could raise tariffs on certain Chinese goods to as high as 245%, the road ahead for Chinese e-commerce upstarts looks steeper.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 14:20

FAA Announces (More) Drone Tests In New Jersey

Authored by Janice Hisle via The Epoch Times,

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is telling people there is no cause for concern over the large numbers of drones flying across New Jersey skies.

According to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which is under Duffy’s purview, more tests are planned later this year in at least three other states—New Mexico, North Dakota, and Mississippi.

Duffy said in an April 15 video posted on social media that the drone flights, like those that caused public alarm in late 2024, are authorized.

Specifically, the FAA is conducting “drone-detection testing” in Cape May, New Jersey, through April 25.  The FAA said it began the tests on April 14.

Duffy said more than 100 “commercial, off-the-shelf drones,” large and small, are being used. The FAA alerted local authorities and invited their participation.

“The FAA is doing this to ensure we can properly detect drones in our airspace and make sure they don’t interfere with aircraft navigation systems,” Duffy said. 

“This is about protecting our national security and American safety.”

Because drone flights may interfere with aircraft navigation, “operating drones around airplanes, helicopters, and airports is dangerous and illegal,” the FAA said. Yet the agency still receives more than 100 drone-sighting reports near airports each month.

Officials said the FAA test drones are being flown over the water near the Cape May Ferry Terminal during daytime hours on weekdays only.

“The public should not fly recreational drones near this area during the test period,” it said.

Similar research has been done at airports during the past few years, but the FAA expanded these investigations to off-airport locations, including some in Alaska.

Duffy pledged he would “continue to provide you, the American people, with this kind of candid, behind-the-scenes updates.”

“You deserve a government that’s always going to be transparent about what we say and what we do,” he said.

Before Duffy became transportation secretary in January, he was a New Jersey resident. Thus, he knew from personal experience that concerns about the drones festered as citizens clamored for further explanation.

“The public was deeply worried about the lack of clear information—communities, kids, families, seeing drones flying over their homes,” he said.

To prevent such undue concerns, Duffy said, the FAA has adopted a “radical transparency” approach to ensure that people are better informed.

In December 2024, White House national security adviser John Kirby said there was “no evidence that the reported drone sightings pose a national-security threat or a public-safety threat.” Authorities were inundated with at least 5,000 reports of mystery drone sightings across several states.

Questions lingered after President Donald Trump took office in January. He instructed his staff to release more information.

On Jan. 28, the ninth day of Trump’s second presidency, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the FAA had authorized “large numbers” of drones to fly over New Jersey for research and various other reasons.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 14:00

Exxon Shares Post Second Largest Gain Since 2023 After DOGE Seeks To Cut Clean Energy Projects

Shares of Exxon had their 2nd largest pop since the regional banking crisis of 2023 (second only to last week's record surge) after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Energy Department is eyeing steep cuts that could wipe out nearly $10 billion in clean-energy funding, jeopardizing major projects with Exxon Mobil and Occidental Petroleum.

Or, as the market appears to see it, a cost saving measure for the likes of Exxon, who will no longer have to endeavor to spend on low-margin "green" businesses. 

Internal memos show the cuts would scrap government contracts tied to hydrogen, carbon capture, and energy storage, with thousands of DOE jobs on the chopping block. Part of President Trump’s broader push to slash federal spending, the move is driven by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by adviser Elon Musk. The agency has already axed numerous contracts and federal jobs.

The $10 billion figure spans two DOE offices and reflects broader DOGE-driven cancellations under review, according to the Wall Street Journal report.

“No final decisions have been made and multiple plans are still being considered,” a DOE spokeswoman said.

The Energy Department, responsible for everything from nuclear weapons oversight to energy R&D, is weighing steep funding cuts, including pulling support from four hydrogen hubs in Democratic-leaning states, while continuing to fund three in GOP-leaning regions. Over 250 clean-tech projects—spanning EV charging, solar, wind, and more—could be scrapped.

The report says that roughly 9,000 of the department’s 17,500 jobs are deemed essential. More than 1,200 employees have resigned or been sidelined—many tied to diversity efforts. Another round of buyouts is underway.

Federal grants and loans have largely been frozen since February, when Trump halted funding tied to Biden-era laws, including the Inflation Reduction Act—legislation he’s criticized as the “green new scam.”

Only a few projects, such as Michigan’s Palisades nuclear plant, have received funding.

Jigar Shah, former head of the DOE’s Loan Programs Office, warned this risks driving clean-tech investment overseas: “That just makes me so sad... now they’re receiving the opposite message.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 13:40

Powell's Chicago Speech Shows He's Guessing Again...

Submitted by “Hyper Pi”,

Yesterday at the Economic Club of Chicago, Jerome Powell doubled down on his tariff-pocalypse fetish, warning that Trump’s trade levies could spark “higher inflation and slower growth.” 

Sound familiar? 

In 2021, he called 9.1% inflation “transitory” while M2 money supply exploded 42%. 

That delusion triggered a market rout and crushed Main Street. 

Now, Powell’s playing Nostradamus again, fixating on hypothetical tariff shocks while ignoring deflationary red flags like $60/barrel oil prices. 

The Fed’s job isn’t to predict trade wars - it’s to react to data. Powell’s flunking that test, again. 

Powell’s April 16 speech hyped Trump’s 10-25% tariff proposals as a looming inflation bomb, claiming they’re “larger than anticipated” and could derail the Fed’s 2% target. 

Sure, tariffs might bump some prices, but Powell’s acting like they’re the whole story. 

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude is at $60 - multi-year lows - slashing transport and production costs. 

That’s a deflationary sledgehammer, yet Powell barely nods at it. 

The data screams caution, not panic. 

Consumer confidence cratered to January 2021 lows in March 2025. Small-business uncertainty spiked to near-record highs in February. 

First-quarter GDP growth is slowing, with consumer spending “modest” despite car sales. 

These are signs of an economy wheezing, not overheating. 

Yet Powell’s 4.3% interest rates, frozen since mid-2024, are squeezing harder than a bear market vise. 

Trump’s Truth Social rants for rate cuts might be brash, but they’re not wrong. 

Powell’s tariff obsession mirrors his 2021 blunder: betting on guesses over facts.

Back then, he ignored money supply and CPI spikes. 

Now, he’s blind to oil prices and softening demand, chasing trade-war ghosts. 

The Fed has tools—producer price indices, commodity trackers—to spot real inflation. 

If tariffs bite, hike rates then. 

Preemptively choking growth on “what-ifs” is malpractice. 

History honors Fed chairs who act, not prophesize. 

Volcker smashed 1980s inflation by reading the data, not tea leaves. 

Powell’s stuck in model-land, leaving markets jittery—S&P 500 dropped 2% post- speech—and Main Street exposed. 

Oil’s at $60, confidence is tanking, and Powell’s still dreaming of tariff-driven doom. 

Ditch the guesses and drive the damn car.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 13:20

"Luxury Turns Late-Cycle": After LVMH Miss, Hermes Stumbles Too

The European luxury sector, tracked by Goldman via GSXELUXG, came under continued pressure on Thursday after French luxury giant Hermes added to the gloom with a disappointing Q1 earnings report, following LVMH Moet Hennessy's shock results just a day earlier. Most notably, a slowdown in Chinese demand is rippling through the industry — prompting one Goldman analyst to warn: "Luxury is late cycle."

Hermes' first-quarter earnings report was mixed to say the least, with growth in Europe, Japan, and the Americas, but disappointing results in Asia and key segments like Watches and Perfumes.

Here's a snapshot of the first quarter report with estimates provided by Bloomberg: 

Total sales growth: +7.2%, missed Bloomberg Consensus of +7.89%

Revenue: €4.13B, +8.5% y/y, just shy of €4.16B estimate

Segment Performance:

• Leather Goods: +10.0% (vs. est. +10.8%) — Slight miss, still strong double-digit growth

• Watches: -10.0% (vs. est. -3.9%) — Deep miss, weakest segment

• Perfumes: -0.5% (vs. est. +7.06%) — Sharp disappointment

• Silk & Textiles: +4.5% (vs. est. +3.64%) — Beat

• Ready-to-Wear & Fashion: +7.2% (vs. est. +9.34%) — Moderate miss

Regional Breakdown:

• France: +14.2% (vs. est. +10.3%) — Strong outperformance

• Europe (ex-France): +13.3% (vs. est. +13.1%) — In line

• Japan: +17.2% (vs. est. +12.7%) — Significant beat

• Asia Pacific: +1.2% (vs. est. +4.02%) — Weak

• Asia (total): +3.7% (vs. est. +5.39%) — Soft demand in China likely a drag

• Americas: +11.0% (vs. est. +8.55%) — Strong outperformance

Axel Dumas, Executive Chairman of Hermes, released comments about the challenging macroeconomic environment: 

"In a complex geopolitical and economic context, the house is strengthening its fundamentals more than ever: uncompromising quality, creativity at the heart of all development, and vertical integration, a guarantee of preserving unique savoir-faire. Despite a high comparison basis in the first quarter, the group achieved solid growth in sales, thanks to the trust of its customers and the commitment of the teams, whom I thank warmly." 

Hermes' uninspiring quarterly report builds on LVMH's first-quarter results yesterday, which served as a luxury gut-check for the industry. The miss was broad-based across segments and regions, led by sliding demand in key markets, including China and the U.S. Fashion and Leather Goods—the group's growth engine—also stumbled, signaling concerns about a wider slowdown in the high-end consumer space. 

"Magnitude Of Deterioration": Wall Street Stunned By LVMH's Earnings https://t.co/96uM1CoZQA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 15, 2025

Commenting on Hermes, but more importantly, the broader industry, Goldman analyst Natasha de la Grense warned, "Luxury is a late cycle." 

Here's more from the analyst:

• The Luxury sector is failing to perform this morning (GSXELUXG flat) despite three relatively reassuring prints and watch exports in positive territory in March. We think this is partly a function of positioning (Hermes, Brunello and Moncler all consensus longs) but also reflects wariness around the forward.

• First the good news: Brunello was bang in line, while Moncler and Hermes beat in the areas of the business that usually matter most (Moncler brand retail, Hermes Leather Goods). All three said that they are not seeing a noticeable change in trend through April. And all three sounded relatively calm on the direct impact of tariffs – the message has unanimously been that there will be no change production footprints, strategy is unaltered (Moncler still sees the U.S. as a growth opportunity) and any price increases would take place in the U.S. in H2 (Brunello quantified this at 3-4% which feels manageable).

• However, feedback this morning is that Q1 is backward looking and Luxury is late cycle – people pretty much unanimously expect U.S. demand to deteriorate even if this is not happening just yet. Moncler acknowledged risks to U.S. underlying demand looking forwards. In addition, the misses in Hermes' non-leather divisions has made some wonder if the business will be more cyclical than in the past as these categories have grown in the mix. Meanwhile, everyone understands that March Swiss Watch exports were helped by stocking up (exports to the US +14%) while other major markets were weak (China -12%).

• Big picture, the takeaway from this week is that the outperformers last year (high end, strong brand momo) are still putting up better growth. Coupled with some potential pull forward of demand in watches/jewellery, that does bode well I think for Richemont cFX. Interestingly, unlike Moncler/Hermes/Brunello, our data suggests Richemont is a consensus short (with bears worried about higher gold costs, CHF headwinds and management's tone on outlook). That said, the other takeaway from reactions today is that the market doesn't care too much about Q1 beats which don't tell us anything about what's to come.

• Bottom line: conviction levels low in this space right now. We are net sellers on the desk this morning. I haven't changed my view that Hermes and Moncler are relatively better places to be but I still think the whole space is going down. On Hermes, I expect Leather to accelerate in Q2 (as supply constraints drop out) and note that anyone on a list for a bag is expected to spend on other product categories first. Beauty and Watches are small and can be quite volatile, relating to timing of shipments and launches – I'm not overly concerned about the misses here. Meanwhile at Moncler, the strong performance with the Chinese cluster really stands out and speaks to excellent brand momo. Moncler also accelerated in Japan which is impressive post LVMH comments. Pushback on Moncler this morning is we are now entering low seasonality for the business/stock – I wonder if that's actually helpful to have a smaller proportion of FY sales vulnerable to near-term shocks to demand. Remain cautious on Kering and Burberry based on weak brand momo, more limited pricing power to pass on tariffs and idiosyncratic risks. On Kering, we still think FY25 consensus EBIT is too high and expect some comments on H1 margin outlook could drive further downgrades. On Burberry, we see negative read across from Moncler/LV comments on the South Korean cluster. I'm also concerned that the scarf/trench push will be less relevant into S/S months.

Commentary from other analysts:

Barclays (overweight)

• Hermes reported a slight miss on its first-quarter sales update, analyst Carole Madjo writes, though all regions saw robust growth

• Growth in its leather goods division should be driven by a price increase and volume contribution in 2025, so it should pick up throughout the year

CIC Market Solutions (neutral)

• Hermes saw a solid start to the year which confirms its status as a safe haven, says analyst David Da Maia

• Its unique status is "highly valuable" in a backdrop that has become very uncertain, and has been reflected in its premium to the luxury sector

Bernstein (outperform)

• Tough comparisons in China weigh heavily, but should get better as the year progresses, says analyst Luca Solca

• Category mix confirms a slower consumer demand environment; watches again are the weakest link in the Hermes lineup

Stifel (buy)

• Lighter-than-expected growth in Asia Pacific overshadowed solid growth in the Americas, France, Europe ex-France and Japan, writes analyst Rogerio Fujimori

• Share-price weakness offers opportunity to buy ahead of growth re-acceleration for leather goods in the second and third quarters

Citi (neutral)

• Hermes continues to outperform with resilient sales, says analyst Thomas Chauvet, noting continued double-digit growth in all regions but Asia ex-Japan

• Notes that U.S. tariffs will be fully offset with pricing from May 1

Jefferies (buy)

• Hermes's first-quarter organic growth confirms the resilience of the group's model, even if it may be slightly below buyside ambitions, says analyst James Grzinic

• The 2025 price rise in leather will have helped, but also provides a good sense for Hermes's pricing power at a time when tariffs, as well as euro strength, are likely to represent mounting gross margin challenges

Bloomberg Intelligence

• Hermes's 1% Asia Pacific-excluding-Japan sales gain in the first quarter dragged otherwise robust low double-digit constant currency growth elsewhere, writes analyst Deborah Aitken

• Slowed China store traffic in April could see more trimming to consensus

For the first time in decades, Hermes's market cap exceeded LVMH's this week.

The theme sticking here is Goldman's "Luxury is late cycle."

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 13:00

Cryptic, Crypto, Krypton

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Bank of Canada left rates on hold at 2.75%, as expected and predicted either we get a quick resolution to US-Canada trade tensions or a year-long recession (see here for more). There’s the kind of nasty, geopolitical, binary outcome I was flagging for 2025 from mid-2024.

Fed Chair Powell said tariffs may raise inflation and unemployment, so no rate cuts for you. It’s nice to see the guys who earn, and manage, the big bucks are on the ball.

Next up today, the ECB: please see our preview here (Many forks in the road). We expect them to cut the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.25%, an additional cut to the one we see in June, so we now have our terminal rate at 2%. However, this is again all very much contingent on trade developments, and a significant further escalation of the trade war could require the ECB to return to an accommodative policy stance, even as the Fed seems to be leaning the other way.  

On trade, President Trump said “big progress” is being made on a deal with Japan, and the White House also expects one with the UK “in three weeks.” Europe can get one too if it decouples from China; but German/EU firms are lobbying to ‘give China a second chance’ --and why wouldn’t Europe ‘try again’ with the economy wiping out its auto industry and propping up the Russian war-economy which the EU is rearming against?-- as some worry the EU will sleepwalk into the China bloc due to its own rigidities.

That outcome could risk making the US outright adversarial in energy, defence, and swaplines as well as trade – but even that doesn’t necessarily mean institutional inertia/motion, or “because markets” mindsets, can adapt in time. It’s unclear what the ECB would do in those worst-case scenarios, and presumably they won’t even be alluded to today. Expect them to remain cryptic.

Aware of this, however, is Italian PM Meloni, in the US today, with the EU worried she might strike a side deal for zero-tariffs on Italian goods that would split the EU and open the door for others to follow suite. If you were the US and didn’t like the EU, wouldn’t you do exactly that? The question may be if the Italians are prepared to reap the rewards for being the first to break rank while risking brickbats from the EU, and the downside if the US reneges on any agreement. Chi non risica non rosica?

Elsewhere, oil markets noticed earlier Arab press reports about a troop build-up vs the Houthis now it’s in English on Bloomberg; and the latter also ran an op-ed about the five signs to look for ahead of a US-China war (not trade war): and we are already seeing all of them. That isn’t very reassuring, or much guidance for markets.

Gold just surged to a new nominal high and is starting to move like a stock. Glibly, this is ‘risk off’. Yet even with the Middle East and China news above that misses what’s also happening as the US tries to remake itself by remaking the global trading and financial system.

This missive from Matthew Pines shows how US gold reserves could be revalued vastly higher to create $1 trillion of fiscal breathing room and to bid up Bitcoin. Alongside tectonic shifts in the global architecture, is gold up only as a ‘haven’ rather than front-running? Likewise, USD-backed stablecoins, where framing legislation is moving forwards, may also see up to $1-1.5 trillion of new demand for US T-bills ahead. That’s also a controversial and potentially market-moving hypothesis that goes beyond just saying ‘crypto’.

Ok, so here’s my latest take on how Bessent may be able to revalue the gold certificates w/o legislation:

Under 31 USC §5117 & the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, the U.S. Treasury is authorized to issue gold certificates to the Federal Reserve Banks, backed by the gold it holds, at… https://t.co/vRRCS3pGui

— Matthew Pines (@matthew_pines) April 16, 2025

However, looking ahead, the larger issue would be if such financial ‘fartcraft’ were followed by the economic statecraft of adopting gold, Bitcoin, or stablecoins --only accessible via the US dollar-- as neutral reserve assets for external trade and clearing. That would truly start the global bifurcation some have been warning of as a risk for years and have massive market implications.

Indeed, what if either the US or China, or Europe refuse to accept Bitcoin, stablecoins, or gold even if the other/s do/does? Mercantilist China, with a vast trade surplus, has no issues with any neutral reserve asset. Partially-mercantilist Europe is pushing ahead with a digital Euro CBDC: would it want to switch to another USD asset if it’s in the China bloc, or to gold? The US, with a vast trade deficit, has a huge problem with a neutral reserve asset until it reindustrialises if it wants to avoid a larger inflation shock than that presented by tariffs (i.e., all commodities follow gold higher). And it has already banned all Central Bank Digital Currencies within the US system, which will necessarily keep a digital Euro off the balance sheet of any US entity.

Hypothetically, what if the US revalued gold higher --encouraging China to buy more of it, which it is doing, partly to prevent capital flight-- then used the $1 trillion from that and the $1-1.5 trillion from stablecoin issuance to help onshore production…. and then banned gold again, leaving China with a lot of shiny metal that wouldn’t be useful to it as reserves, or within the US/Western bloc? Why wouldn’t it do so, in fact? “Because gold”? Recall the US has form, having seized/gone off gold in the 1930s, and going off it again in the 1970s.

Of course, this is probably too many dots for those who think only in dot plots, or gold & yachts, to join. Yet if we are going to see financial steps in that bifurcating direction, again we can look for warning signs; like more digital ring-fencing of crypto assets to keep some in and some *out*. Saying what assets can and can’t be used where is not just ‘regulation’, as some will dully put it, any more than China’s Common Prosperity was: it would literally be the digging of trenches to lay the pipes for future central bank liquidity within non-fungible systems.

Meanwhile, see here for our indicative quantitative scenario of what trade bifurcation and milder trade war outcomes could imply for the US, Europe, and China: don’t focus on any one macro number - the point is to look at the spread between them. And, yes, the current American bull in a China shop may be able to force China to shop a lot more… at a high economic price to everyone - but that would just be economic statecraft over policy again. (And kudos to Jeffrey Powell and Lize Naute for their brilliantly original innovation of using an economic gravity model of trade that places China 1,000,000km from the US, three times the distance of the Moon from the Earth, to simulate a Cold War-style bifurcation.)

It’s also hardly a quiet day on multiple other fronts.

Reportedly, the IRS have begun stripping Harvard University -- which some have called a hedge-fund with a (highly politicised) school attached-- of its tax-exempt status.

A US judge has found probable cause to hold the Trump administration in criminal contempt of court for defying his order to turn around planes in mid-air, as some legal experts point out he likely doesn’t have jurisdiction on the issue at all, which will now have to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court (again).

Lastly, the Financial Times says astronomers have found the strongest signs yet of alien life. I now await their editorial piece arguing that anyone coming from ‘Krypton’ must be in favour of Ricardian free trade, because anything else would be illogical.

Then again, Superman used to promote “Truth, Justice, and the American Way” – which today would mean high tariffs, Bitcoin, and USD-backed stablecoins.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 12:40

The post China’s Economy and Silliness on Deflation appeared first on CEPR.

Human Trafficking Too? Biden Admin Flagged Deported El Salvadoran As 'Suspect Alien'

As Democrats work themselves into hysterics over Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a now-deported El Salvadoran man (aka, 'Maryland Man') at the center of an intense court battle, several new details about 'St. Abrego' have surfaced in the last several days - most recently that the Biden administration flagged him as a 'suspect alien' who was potentially involved in "human smuggling/trafficking" following a traffic stop hundreds of miles away from his Maryland home, according to DHS records reviewed by Just the News.

And while it should come as no surprise that the Biden administration did not follow up (or at least the records don't indicate whether they did), here's what we know:

Abrego Garcia was pulled over in November 2022 by a Tennessee state trooper for driving an SUV full of people erratically and speeding.

"Subject was observed speeding and unable to maintain its lane, and was subsequently pulled over," reads one entry. "Encountering officer decided not to cite the subject for driving infractions but gave him a warning citation for driving with an expired driver's license," the memo continues. Of note, Maryland issues driver's licenses to illegal aliens.

According to the report, the trooper believed human trafficking was involved according to a DHS summary recorded on Dec. 6, 2022. 

"During the interview, subject pretended to speak less English than he was capable of and attempted to put encountering officer off-track by responding to questions with questions," reads the summary. "When asked what relationship he had with the registered owner of the vehicle, subject replied the owner of the vehicle is his boss, and that his work is in construction."

"There was no luggage in the vehicle, leading the encountering officer to suspect this was a human trafficking incident," the report continues.

The incident was filed in DHS's system as "human smuggling/trafficking" according to the memos.

There is no record showing whether the Biden's DHS ever followed up on enforcing the matter. 

The initial review determined that Abrego Garcia was a “suspect alien” and referred his matter for review to “passport control," the records show. Three weeks later on Dec. 27, 2022, Homeland updated its record to urge all personnel who encountered Abrego Garcia in the future to “escort to secondary,” a term referring to the investigative procedures used when someone suspected of wrongdoing is encountered at a port of entry or by border patrol agents. -Just the News

This is just the latest tidbit on Abrego Garcia, the left's new George Floyd.

Domestic Violence, MS-13 Ties

On Wednesday, DHS released a court filing revealing that Abrego Garcia's wife sought a restraining order for domestic violence a year before the traffic stop.

In May 2021, a document signed by a judge described allegations of a "violent encounter." The case was eventually dismissed when his wife, Jennifer Vasquez, failed to appear for a final court hearing in June 2021.

"Just this morning, it was revealed through Maryland court documents that Abrego Garcia’s wife petitioned for an order of protection against him for two instances of domestic violence in May of 2021," said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday. "The court ordered that ‘the respondent committed the following acts of abuse. Once, in May of 2021, assault in any degree….’" she added. "On May 4th of 2021, he punched and scratched his wife, ripped off her shirt, and grabbed and bruised her."

"This is from a court in Maryland," Leavitt continued. "So not only are Democrats rushing to defend an illegal criminal foreign terrorist gang member, but also an apparent woman-beater."

Of course, Vasquez has now changed her tune - claiming she filed the restraining order "out of an abundance of caution..."

An abundance of caution... pic.twitter.com/GJGZvzmG9s

— Byron York (@ByronYork) April 17, 2025

Kinda like why he was deported?

Meanwhile, Leavitt noted that "When Gilmar Abrego Garcia was originally arrested, he was wearing a sweatshirt with rolls of money covering the ears, mouth, and eyes of presidents on various currency denominations," adding "This is a known MS-13 gang symbol of ‘Hear no evil. Speak no evil. See no evil.’"

.@PressSec: "It's appalling and sad that Senator @ChrisVanHollen and the Democrats applauding his trip to El Salvador today are incapable of having any shred of common sense or empathy for their own constituents and our citizens. Nobody knows this more than the woman standing to… pic.twitter.com/EiNoth8zwM

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 16, 2025

"He was also arrested with two other well-known members of the vicious MS-13 gang," she continued.

Leavitt went on to point out that not one, but two separate judges confirmed Abrego Garcia’s affiliation with MS-13 — a finding that has never been disputed. But the gang ties are just the beginning. “Just this morning, it was revealed through Maryland court documents that Abrego Garcia’s wife petitioned for an order of protection against him for two instances of domestic violence in May of 2021,” she told reporters. -PJ Media

Abrego-Garcia's lawyers insisted that there was no evidence that he was MS-13, that the cops were just making it all up, that he's just a Maryland father.

Turns out that he was hanging out with multiple confirmed MS-13 members when he was arrested, that he was wearing apparel… pic.twitter.com/hwrwDnJcGY

— Will Chamberlain (@willchamberlain) April 16, 2025

And so...

If you’re not fighting tooth and nail for a serial domestic abusing MS13 deported non-citizen — it’s only a matter of time before dictator Trump starts abducting American citizens and disappearing them into torture prisons.

- Current Democrat mid-term campaign message

— Western Lensman (@WesternLensman) April 17, 2025

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 12:20

Cosplay Dystopia: Trans Individuals Are Seeking 'Asylum' In Canada

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Immigration attorneys in Canada are being “overwhelmed” with requests for information on how to seek asylum from transgender identifying individuals in the US, according to a report.

The Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail reports that alarmed alphabet people are looking to be granted political asylum as if it’s a hostile dystopian takeover a la The Handmaid’s Tale.

“We are receiving numerous inquiries from U.S. nationals, including many trans individuals, who are no longer feeling safe at home,” immigration lawyer Warda Shazadi Meighen told the outlet.

Scores of transgender Americans seeking route to Canada, including through asylum claims https://t.co/BUA3DezMe3

— Globe Politics (@globepolitics) April 15, 2025

“International refugee protection is a last-resort option, granted only when a person’s home country is no longer safe,” the report notes.

The attorney further highlighted that Canadian law “certainly includes trans identity” as a valid justification for potential refugee protection from persecution.

“If that fear stems from U.S. state action or inaction, the state is considered the agent of persecution, and the claimant isn’t required to show they first sought protection from the authorities,” the attorney added.

A second attorney, Yameena Ansari, asserted that requiring individuals to identify by sex on government documents is “a form of violence.”

Okay, no it’s not.

Ansari claimed that her practice is inundated with desperate LGBTQQIAAP2S+ idnetifying Americans looking to escape to Canada.

“Some immigration lawyers have been hosting online seminars for LGBTQ communities on navigating Canadian immigration to address the volume of inquiries,” the Globe and Mail further reports. 

“One last month, attended by 62 people, was dominated by questions about asylum claims from transgender Americans,” the report adds.

The Canadian government’s immigration website states that the country “has a proud history of providing protection to and helping resettle those most in need. That includes those in the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, intersex, and additional sexually and gender diverse (LGBTQI+) community.”

CBC News in Canada is also covering the “plight” of such individuals looking for a new “safe space.”

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 12:00

Court Rules Google Illegally Holds "Monopoly Power" In Online Ad Tech 

A U.S. federal court ruled that Google had illegally monopolized key digital advertising markets, including publisher ad servers, ad exchanges, and advertiser ad networks. This ruling could deal a major blow to Google's core business pillar: advertising revenue (advertising accounted for about 77.4% of Google's total revenue in 2023).

U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema found on Thursday morning that Google had violated antitrust law by "willfully acquiring and maintaining monopoly power in the open-web display publisher ad server market and the open-web display ad exchange market."  

Here are the key findings in the landmark antitrust case (U.S. v. Google, 23-cv-00108, U.S. District Court, Eastern District of Virginia (Alexandria):  

Google violated Section 2 of the Sherman Act by willfully acquiring and maintaining monopoly power in:

• The open-web display publisher ad server market, and

• The open-web display ad exchange market Google also violated Sections 1 and 2 by unlawfully tying its publisher ad server (DoubleClick for Publishers/DFP) to its ad exchange (AdX). The court did not find that

Google held monopoly power in the third alleged market: advertiser ad networks.

Legal and Procedural Notes:

• The DOJ and 17 states originally brought the suit, accusing Google of monopolizing three key ad tech markets.

• Google had earlier tried to dismiss the case and transfer it to New York but failed.

• The court conducted a three-week bench trial and reviewed extensive expert testimony and evidence.

This case is one of several antitrust actions pending against Google. In a separate lawsuit, the Justice Department seeks to force Alphabet to divest its Chrome browser following a landmark ruling that found the company had monopolized the online search market.

"Google will be drastically reshaped by court decrees in the next year or two," The Information said, adding, "Google will likely be forced, as a result of today's decision, to dismantle much of its ad tech business which dominates both how advertisers buy ads on independent websites, and how web publishers sell their ad space." 

Here are the next steps for Google, and it appears the court will be deciding on potential remedies: 

• Google was found liable on Counts I, II, and IV, violating Sections 1 and 2 of the Sherman Act. Count III was dismissed.

• The court will set a schedule for briefing and hearings to determine remedies, potentially including divestiture of DFP and AdX, injunctions against anticompetitive practices, and other measures to restore competition.

• The ruling highlights Google's decade-long strategy of tying products and imposing exclusionary policies to maintain dominance in digital advertising, harming publishers, competition, and consumers. 

Market response:  

• Alphabet shares fell as much as 3.2% after the ruling.

• Competitor The Trade Desk's stock jumped nearly 8%, reflecting investor optimism about improved competition in the ad tech space.

. . .

Here's the full court filing:

. . . 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 11:40

Measles Outbreak Likely Bigger Than Thought: CDC

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The measles outbreak that started in Texas this year is likely larger than reported, a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official said on April 15.

A measles advisory on a bulletin board outside the Gaines County Courthouse in Seminole, Texas, on April 9, 2025. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

“We do believe that there’s quite a large amount of cases that are not reported,” Dr. David Sugerman, a senior CDC scientist working on measles, said during a meeting with the agency’s vaccine advisory panel.

“In working very closely with our colleagues in Texas, in talking with families, they may mention prior cases that have recovered and never received testing, [and] other families that may have cases and never had sought treatment,” he said. “So we do think that there is under-testing and therefore under-diagnosis and under-reporting.”

The outbreak in Texas started in Gaines County in January and has since expanded to multiple other jurisdictions, including part of New Mexico.

As of April 15, Texas had confirmed 561 cases, and New Mexico had confirmed 63 cases.

Most patients are either unvaccinated or have no documented doses of a measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine more than 14 days before the onset of symptoms. Seventeen of the patients had received at least one MMR vaccine dose.

In Gaines County and surrounding areas, falling vaccination rates have been recorded for years. Federal and local health officials say 95 percent coverage is needed for herd immunity, or community protection. But just 82 percent of kindergartners and 90 percent of seventh graders in Gaines County had received two doses, or a full series, of the vaccine, according to the most recent data available, from 2023 to 2024.

Underreporting cases of measles “is not uncommon in close-knit communities that may also have lower health care seeking behavior at baseline,” Sugarman said on April 15.

Two people have died from measles in Texas, according to state health officials. Dr. Edwin Jose Asturias, a panel member, said that factoring in the reported number of cases, the case fatality rate would be much higher than is historically known for measles outbreaks.

“I don’t want to think that there is a higher mortality there. Perhaps what’s happening is a huge amount of under-reporting of the cases of measles that are happening in that jurisdiction,” he said.

Sugarman reported to the committee that as of April 10, there had been 712 confirmed cases of measles across 25 states in 2025—up from 285 cases in all of 2024—with most of the cases being part of one of five ongoing outbreaks.

Measles spreads through respiratory droplets and airborne transmission. It causes symptoms such as rash and fever.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said at an unrelated press conference earlier on April 15 that some people get measles “because they don’t vaccinate” and that people who are vaccinated contract the disease “because the vaccine wanes about 4.8 percent per year.”

A 2023 paper published by the American Journal of Epidemiology that studied antibody levels found that the antibodies waned by 4.8 percent a year among those who received two doses of the MMR vaccine, compared with 9.7 percent per year after one dose.

“It’s a leaky vaccine, and that problem is always going to be around,” said Kennedy, who recently advised people to take the MMR shot.

Some other studies, such as a 2023 study from France, have concluded that the protection from the vaccine drops only slightly over time.

Dr. Helen Keipp Talbot, a professor of medicine at Vanderbilt University who chairs the CDC’s vaccine advisory panel, said during the April 15 meeting that “there’s no reason why we have healthy children dying of measles in the U.S. when this vaccine is amazing.”

“It’s highly effective and has a very long-lasting immunity,” she said.

Kennedy said recently that Americans who have died with measles have underlying conditions. One of the children who died this year, he said, had lingering mononucleosis, citing her medical records and his conversations with her parents.

Texas officials have said one of the girls who died this year had no underlying conditions and that neither child had been vaccinated.

The CDC’s childhood vaccination schedule recommends that the first dose of the MMR vaccine be administered at about 12 months of age, with a second dose several years later. Many school districts mandate two doses of the vaccine.

The CDC says on its website that one dose of the MMR vaccine is 93 percent effective against measles, while two doses are 97 percent effective. The estimates come from a 2013 paper analyzing studies that were performed more than a decade ago, according to a spokesperson for the agency.

“Although the titer of vaccine-induced antibodies is lower than that following natural disease, both serologic and epidemiologic evidence indicate that vaccine-induced immunity appears to be long-term and probably lifelong in most persons,” the CDC site says. “Most vaccinated persons who appear to lose antibody show an anamnestic immune response upon revaccination, indicating that they are probably still immune.”

A 2021 paper found that some people who received a measles vaccine had no detectable immunoglobulin G antibodies against measles.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 11:05

Leaked White House Document Reveals Monster Budget Cut Proposal For Federal Health Agencies

The Trump administration could slash roughly one-third of the federal government’s bloated health budget, a leaked White House proposal shows. The plan, first reported by the Washington Post and detailed in documents acquired by CNN, calls for slashing “tens of billions of dollars” annually, targeting a host of programs across multiple agencies.

The proposal, already sent to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), aligns with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “Make America Healthy Again” initiative and tech titan Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, sources say.

The proposal, part of President Donald Trump’s broader push to curb government waste, would eliminate billions in annual spending and reign in a sprawling bureaucracy that employs 82,000 workers across 10 regional offices, with average salaries of $100,000 plus generous benefits.

CNN reports:

The plan calls for steep cuts to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which would see its budget reduced by more than 40% under the administration’s proposal.

It also eliminates CDC’s global health center and programs focused on chronic disease prevention, and domestic HIV/AIDS prevention. While some of the agency’s work would be moved into new AHA centers, programs on gun violence, injury prevention, youth violence prevention, drowning, minority health and others would be eliminated entirely.

The preliminary plan would slash the National Institutes of Health’s budget by more than 40% and reduce its 27 research institutes and centers down to just eight.

This month, HHS launched its initial wave of layoffs, with 10,000 employees slated for termination in the coming weeks.

“The COVID-19 pandemic is over, and HHS will no longer waste billions of taxpayer dollars responding to a non-existent pandemic that Americans moved on from years ago. HHS is prioritizing funding projects that will deliver on President Trump’s mandate to address our chronic disease epidemic and Make America Healthy Again,” the agency said in a statement at the time of the first cuts.

The annual budget of the HHS is a staggering $1.8 trillion.

As we previously noted, the agency was infamously implicated in funding controversial gain-of-function research through EcoHealth Alliance through Dr. Anthony Fauci's NIAID. These efforts, tied to the Wuhan Level 4 Virology Lab in China - widely considered COVID-19’s ground zero - allegedly produced human-transmissible coronaviruses, sparking a deadly pandemic and draconian lockdowns around the world. How could we forget?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 10:45

Trump Announces Free Flights, Possible Stipends For Self-Deportees

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The federal government will facilitate and pay for the self-deportation of those who have entered the country illegally, while operations will continue to target gang members and violent criminals, President Donald Trump told Fox Noticias host Rachel Campos-Duffy in an interview filmed at the White House that aired on April 15.

President Donald Trump leaves after a ceremony for the Ohio State Buckeyes, the 2025 college football national champions, on the South Lawn of the White House on April 14, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The president said that stipends, including plane tickets and money, could help incentivize illegal immigrants to leave and pursue legal status.

“We’re going to make it comfortable for people, and we’re going to work with those people to come back into our country legally,” Trump said during the interview. “And then ... if they’re good, if we want them back in, we’re going to work with them to get them back in as quickly as we can.”

He did not provide further details about how much money illegal immigrants could receive or how to apply for such benefits.

The president also announced a plan to work with some industries, including hospitality and agriculture, to help business owners mitigate the effect of mass deportations.

“We’re making it so that if a farmer can give recommendations to people, we’re going to be very soothing,” he said.

“They’re sort of responsible, and we’re going to have the farmer take responsibility. But you know, ultimately, at some point, we want the people to go out, come back as legal.”

Broadcast to a Hispanic audience, the interview was conducted in English and released with Spanish subtitles. Trump successfully courted the Hispanic vote during his 2024 campaign, according to exit polling that showed him garnering a record share for a Republican Party candidate.

While the United States is offering paths to citizenship for many in the workforce, the president said aggressive deportation operations will continue for violent criminals.

“Right now, we’re getting the murderers out,” Trump said. “We have our total aim on the very bad ones, as you can imagine. These are rough, bad people. We want them out, and that’s mostly our focus.”

He thanked Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele—who visited the White House on April 14 to discuss migration and national security policies—for housing violent deportees in his country’s Terrorism Confinement Center.

Trump said White House officials are looking into the legality of potentially housing dangerous U.S. citizens in the supermax prison.

“I call them homegrown criminals,” the president said. “We are looking into it, and we want to do it. I would love to do that.”

Regarding tariffs imposed on nations around the world, the president suggested that revenues could grow large enough to replace income taxes.

“We’re making tremendous amounts of money, taking in billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs from other countries that, for many, many decades, just ripped off the United States,” he said.

He also repeated his goals of introducing more lenient mortgage deductions; allowing interest deductions for U.S.-made vehicles; and eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security. But he cautioned that political winds on Capitol Hill are challenging to overcome.

“I have some strange people I deal with, and we have to get it approved,” Trump said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 10:30

Carroll, Bryant, Dawson: The Ultimate Epstein Deep Dive

YOUTUBE:

X: 

Tonight at 7pm EST I'll be hosting an Epstein deep dive with journalists @Nick__Bryant and @RyLiberty

These guys are two of the most researched journalists on the topic today. You're guaranteed to learn something new tonight. Tune in. https://t.co/LZnE6Ac7Lx

— Ian Carroll (@IanCarrollShow) April 17, 2025

****************************************************** 

I’m starting to think that handing the Mossad pedo files to a bunch of Zionists might not be the best way to get the truth to the public.

— Dave Smith (@ComicDaveSmith) February 27, 2025

After an underwhelming Phase 1 release of the Epstein Files by the Trump administration (still awaiting phase 2 by the way…) we wanted to bring together proper category experts.

Visit the ZeroHedge homepage tonight at 7:15 pm ET for the ultimate deep dive into government sex trafficking rings, hosted by Ian Carroll.

Panelist include Nick Bryant, author of The Franklin Scandal which is an absolute must-read for those wanting to learn more about government’s systematic pedophilia. Bryant spent the better part of a decade on the ground in Omaha Nebraska piecing together the salacious details behind Larry King’s operations that connected to the CIA and highest levels of the George HW Bush administration.

Also joining is Ryan Dawson who has done mountains of research into the Epstein case and its connections to the country of Israel.

We will see you tonight at 7:15 pm ET. Live and uncensored on the homepage and our X channel.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 10:15

AG Bondi Announces Lawsuit Against Maine Over Trans Boys In Girls' Sports

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Department of Justice is seeking a federal court injunction requiring Pine Tree State schools to immediately stop transgender boys from competing in girls’ sports and return all athletic records and titles to their rightful female owners.

Attorney General Pam Bondi, accompanied by (L–R) Riley Gaines, Rep. Laurel Libby (R-Maine), and Education Secretary Linda McMahon, speaks during a news conference to announce that the administration it is suing Maine’s education department for not complying with the government's push to ban transgender athletes in girls sports, at the Department of Justice headquarters in Washington on April 16, 2025. Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo

The federal agency will also consider retroactively pulling funding from school districts that have not complied with Title IX regulations in the past, Attorney General Pam Bondi said during an April 16 news conference in Washington.

“Pretty basic stuff,” she said. “This is about women’s sports. This is also about young women’s personal safety.”

Bondi was flanked by Education Secretary Linda McMahon and Maine Assemblywoman Laurel Libby, who was censured by her state’s Democrat-led state legislature for posting photos and the identity of a male transgender athlete from Greely High School who won an indoor track state pole vaulting title this year.

Maine high school athletes who competed against transgender males also appeared on stage, along with Riley Gaines, a former NCAA swimmer who brought this debate to the national stage after losing the championship to a transgender male who had competed in the men’s division until his senior year.

Bondi said a Maine transgender male also won a cross-country state title last fall in the girls’ division and placed at state-level skiing competitions this past winter.

“That took away a spot from young women in women’s sports,” Bondi said. “Shame on him.”

Bondi did not disclose where this federal lawsuit was filed.

In a separate court case related to the same debate, a judge ordered the federal government to unfreeze Department of Agriculture funding to schools.

President Donald Trump previously issued executive orders clarifying Title IX and prohibiting males from competing in women’s sports. The NCAA has already complied, and Republican House members are working on a bill to codify that regulation.

Maine’s attorney general has already informed Bondi that his state has no intention of complying with the order. School district superintendents told their communities that until directed otherwise, they are expected to comply with state laws that are contrary to Trump’s executive order.

Trump publicly sparred with Maine Gov. Janet Mills at a governor’s workshop on Capitol Hill in February, warning her that he would pull funding if she continued to defy his executive order.

At the state level, the Greely High School community has shown public support for all transgender athletes, including their state champion pole vaulter, criticizing Trump and the NCAA for its compliance. But Libby has also received plenty of support via her social media presence and continues to state that most Mainers do not support men competing as women in their state.

“Maine Democrats have doubled down on their far-left agenda, and now our students and families stand poised to lose hundreds of millions in federal funding,” Libby said in a statement provided to The Epoch Times.

“Their radical gender ideology is endangering the continued existence of women’s sports and penalizing Maine students against the will of Maine citizens.”

Mills issued a statement after Bondi’s news conference, saying that Trump and the Department of Justice’s actions are politically motivated.

“As I have said previously, this is not just about who can compete on the athletic field, this is about whether a President can force compliance with his will, without regard for the rule of law that governs our nation. I believe he cannot,” the governor said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 09:40

Philly Fed Surveys Screams Stagflation As 'Soft' Data Slump Continues

Another day, another sentiment survey collapsing into the abyss of Trump-Tariff-driven hell...

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook survey crashed from +12.5 to -26.4 in April (+2.2 exp) - its weakest in two years. However, quietly, the 6-month forward outlook remained positive and actually improved...

The index for new orders also fell sharply, from 8.7 in March to -34.2 this month, its lowest reading since April 2020, and the prices paid index edged up from 48.3 to 51.0, its highest reading since July 2022

Smells a little stagflationary to us.

The future prices paid index climbed to 63.1, and the future prices received index jumped 28 points to 67.7, its highest reading since June 2021.

Finally, the gap between strengthening 'hard' data and collapsing 'soft' data continues to grow...

Will this be a replay of Q2 2024 - when the hard data 'caught down' to soft data? Or Q3 2023 where the sentiment surveys snapped higher as the hard data refused to fold?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 09:23

If A Trump-Tariff-Driven Depression Is Imminent, Why Aren't Scared CEOs Firing Anyone?

Another week, another bulletproof jobless claims print...

Just 221k Americans filed for jobless claims for the first time last week - a number that is the same level as it was in November of 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing Claims rose last week but remain in the same range as they have been in for the last year...

Source: Bloomberg

Initial Claims in the 'Deep TriState' fell last week...

But, Continuing Claims in the 'Deep TriState' are rising...

Virginia is starting to feel the DOGE pain...

So, while the 'Deep TriState' is starting to see some jobs lost, the rest of the nation continues to show absolutely no signs at all of this imminent recession that CEOs and talking heads keep proclaiming is right around the corner.

Perhaps it is simply jawboning to keep the pressure on Trump to reverse his actions - and keep the pressure on the market to go down - when they all realistically know the Trump plan is to negotiate these terrifying tariff levels back to some normalization that levels the playing field for 'Murica?

Or are these CEOs simply asleep at the wheel - if you were the most terrified since Lehman... wouldn't you be firing people?

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 08:57

US Housing Starts Plunged Most Since COVID In March

With homebuilder confidence languishing near COVID lockdown lows...

...and mortgage rates rebounding higher - it should be no surprise that Housing Starts were expected to decline in March. However, the scale of the drop is dramatic, tumbling 11.4% MoM (vs -5.4% exp).

The monthly swings in Housing Starts recently have been wild to say the least. Building Permits rose 1.6% MoM (better than expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

On a SAAR basis,. Housing Starts are back near COVID lockdown lows...

Source: Bloomberg

The plunge in Housing Starts was dominated by a 14.2% MoM collapse in single-family home starts - the biggest drop since April 2020....

Source: Bloomberg

The more forward looking Building Permits continue to (roughly) track Fed rate cut expectations...

Prices have come off their peak somewhat as builders deploy incentives to try to clear excess inventory, which still stands at the highest since 2007. 

That’s also prompting builders to slow down on projects, with the number of single-family homes under construction falling to the lowest level in four years, continuing a steady decline back to mid-2022.

Will Fed rate cuts even help at this point?

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 08:48

ECB Cuts Rates For The 7th Time, Outlook Leans Dovish Amid "Exceptional Uncertainty"

As expected, the ECB cut its three main rates by 25bps for a 7th consecutive time (deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% respectively). Of note, for the first time this easing cycle the central bank dropped the word "restrictive" from the statement. Reuters reported that the decision to cut rates was unanimous, as even some of the more hawkish rate setters agreed the global trade was has significantly altered the outlook.

The ECB also delivered a dovish outlook given “exceptional” uncertainty. The cut was based on the “updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission”, the Governing Council said in the statement. 

The ECB said the disinflation process is well on track but added the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions. Increased uncertainty “may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area”, it said. In addition, the ECB dropped the word "restrictive" in reference to monetary policy – a point of debate among policymakers in recent weeks.

Parsing the statement, here are the highlights

TRADE:

• The adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions.
• These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area
• Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions

INFLATION:

• Inflation has continued to develop as staff expected
• Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at its 2% medium-term target

WAGES:

• Wage growth is moderating

OUTLOOK:

• The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions
• Will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance

In kneejerk reaction, the EURUSD fell from 1.1361 to 1.334, a fresh session low, in 2 minutes, as the market viewed the statement more dovish than expected (to Trump's credit, who called the growing bifurcation between the ECB and the Fed as the basis for his anger). In line with the dovish response, the Jan 24 Bund future rose from 130.95 to 131.17, while the Stoxx 50 saw a modest move higher.

Overall, the decisions was largely as expected with the prior language around restrictiveness removed, given today's 25bps cut takes the ECB to the top-end of its 1.75-2.25% neutral rate estimate. Interestingly, the line around restrictiveness was removed and was not replaced with any reference to that neutral band or similar; not necessarily a signal or similar, but still a point to note. Elsewhere, forward guidance was unsurprisingly non-committal, though the statement does highlight increased uncertainty and an associated confidence impact is which ' likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions'. Given this, we now look for any hint of an offsetting policy response (i.e. dovish action) to counter the "likely" tightening of financing conditions - a point which may have driven the slightly delayed dovish reaction.

Earlier:

Preview

OVERVIEW: Expectations are for the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25%. Despite the positive impulses from the German fiscal reform package and the Euro being at a record high on a trade-weighted basis, the expected negative growth shock from the global trade war is set to see policymakers ease monetary policy to the top of the estimated neutral range. Focus for the release will be on how the ECB is currently modelling the impact of the trade war on the Eurozone economy and how it could shape monetary policy in the coming months. That being said, the ECB will likely adopt a non-committal tone on account of the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's trade practices.

PRIOR MEETING: As expected, the ECB pulled the trigger on a 25bps reduction to the Deposit Rate. Greater attention fell upon the Governing Council’s decision to tweak its policy statement so that it reads "monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive" (prev. “monetary policy remains restrictive").

Elsewhere, the Bank opted to reiterate its data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach, whilst stating that it will not pre-commit to a specific policy path. For the accompanying macro projections, the headline 2025 inflation forecast was raised to 2.3% from 2.1%, 2026 held at 1.9% and 2027 trimmed to 2.0% from 2.1%. On the growth front, policymakers cut their 2025 and 2026 growth views whilst holding 2027 at 1.3%. At the follow-up press conference, President Lagarde remarked that the statement language tweak was not an innocuous change and word changes have meaning. She added that the ECB is now moving towards a more 'evolutionary approach'. With regard to the policy decision, all policymakers, with the exception of Austria’s Holzmann (who abstained), backed the announcement. Lagarde suggested that the GC could cut again or pause its cutting cycle depending on the data. The fact that Lagarde classified the policy discussion as “lively" and Intense" suggested upcoming decisions will become more contentious.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS: March's flash HICP report saw Y/Y inflation slip to 2.4% from 2.6%, super-core decline to 2.4% from 2.6% and services inflation fall to 3.4% from 3.7%. The February ECB Consumer Expectations Survey saw the 12-month and 3-year forecasts hold steady at 2.6% and 2.4% respectively. In terms of market gauges, the 5y5y inflation forward has declined to around 2.07% from the 2.22% seen at the time of the March meeting. On the growth front, 01 GDP data is not released until April 30th. However, more timely survey data from S&P global showed the EZ-wide manufacturing print tick higher to 48.7 from 47.6, services rose to 51.0 from 50.6, leaving the composite at 50.9 vs. prev. 50.2. In the labour market, the unemployment rate in the Eurozone remains at its historic low of 6.1%. It's also worth noting that the trade-weighted EUR is currently at a record high.

RECENT COMMUNICATIONS: Given the fluidity of the trade situation, a bulk of the comments since the prior meeting have been viewed as somewhat stale. However, in recent sessions. President Lagarde (11th April) noted that the Bank is ready to use the instruments it has to procure price stability if needed. France's Villeroy (10th April) said US President Trump's pause decision was less bad news but bad news elements remain. He also remarked (9th April) that a trade war will lower EZ growth by 0.25pp in 2025; shock will not be negligible but will not be a recession. Austria's Holzmann (9th April) said he does not see the reason for a rate cut for now, adding that waiting is the best strategy when uncertainty is this high. He added that considering an outsized 50bps cut is "ludicrous". Elsewhere at the hawkish end of the spectrum, Netherlands' Knot (9th April) is of the view that the impact of the trade war is likely inflationary in the long term. Finland's Rehn (9th April) stated that the case for continuing rate cuts at the April meeting is supported by downside risks materialising. Typically a dove, Stournaras of Greece (8th April) has conceded that the potential increase in inflation may delay the normalisation of monetary policy.

RATES: Expectations are for the ECB to cut the deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25%, according to 61/71 economists surveyed by Reuters (note, some of these forecasts may be considered out of date given the fluidity of the trade war). Financial markets have greater conviction over a 25bps rate cut and price such an outcome at 99%. The backdrop to the meeting has been dominated by US President Trump's trade agenda. At the time of writing, US President Trump announced a 90-day pause in tariff actions and cut reciprocals to 10% for nations that asked for talks. The EU responded by delaying its countermeasures (due on April 15th) to the US. Overall, the outlook for trade has improved over the past few sessions, however, it remains highly uncertain and therefore continues to suppress the growth outlook for the region. Accordingly, policymakers are set to take action by loosening monetary policy further. Note, an outsized move of 50bps is unlikely with ECB's Simkus stating that he sees no need to talk about such an increment. Markets will also be looking to see if Holzmann (or any others) abstains from the decision. ING writes that given expectations of a cut, "the ECB will also have to change its communication. Instead of ’monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive', the ECB is likely to flag that at 2.25%, the deposit rate would now be within the range of neutral interest rates”. It remains to be seen whether the Bank will insert any additional language in lieu of the ongoing trade war. Beyond the upcoming meeting, market pricing has been particularly choppy given the volatility in markets. However, the next 25bps reduction is fully priced by July with 80bps of easing implied by year-end.

Tyler Durden Thu, 04/17/2025 - 08:30