– by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%), especially over a three-month period, has been much more accurate since 2000. In March the expansionary headline and new […]

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I have been subscribing to The Atlantic for over a decade now. When I would travel by air to some far-off destination, I would have it in my brief case and also carry a book. It used to be, you could obtain a magazine or newspaper on an airplane. That disappeared and I do not […]

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Central beliefs of MAGAnomics: • If people get money (wages, whatever) they just eat it directly. They don’t pass it on to someone else, who then passes it on to someone else, etc…; • There are no gains from trade, individually or between countries; • If the government spends money, it’s just fake somehow. All […]

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From the Financial Times (paywalled) via Eschaton: “Hedge funds have been hit with the biggest margin calls since Covid shut down huge parts of the global economy in 2020, after Donald Trump’s tariffs triggered a rout in global financial markets. “Wall Street banks have asked their hedge fund clients to stump up more money as […]

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– by New Deal democrat This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,000. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.903 million, the highest number since 2021: Since last year this week there was something of an outlier to the upside, by […]

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GOP’s subservience to Trump and Musk is also problematic for Democrats featured at MSNBC originally. The GOP is throwing out the powers that the Constitution gave Congress to better bow to the Republicans scrambling to keep Trump and Musk from hurting their constituents. The Constitution’s authors clearly saw Congress as being the first among equals in the […]

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“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition  – by New Deal democrat Before I get to today’s data, let me make this brief note on the tariffs that were announced late yesterday and the instant reaction overnight. As to the effect on the US and global economy, I really don’t have anything […]

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The tariffs were always about extortion, soliciting bribes. They were never about helping the economy, balancing the budget, trade deficits or reducing taxes. “After multiple White House aides insisted that the new tariffs were not a negotiation, Trump said he would be open to negotiating with other countries about the duties. “Trump said he would […]

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Things are moving so fast, that I am a day late with this. I argue that Trump’s insane tariffs will, in some cases, impose higher costs on US than foreign manufacturers. There are two key issues. First tariffs are charged the full value of a good, not the value added in the target foreign company. […]

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I keep reading about how Tesla is in trouble. Well, yes, in the sense that its business model is a fail. But Tesla stock price has been defying gravity. Why? Probably because Musk, who is richer than God, can keep Tesla’s stock price afloat. How? Well as the commissar of DOGE, he’s managed to get […]

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Trump called fallen American soldiers “suckers” and “losers.” Presumably because they didn’t find a podiatrist who could claim they had “bone spurs.” Now the Trump Administration is punishing living veterans for their service. In the latest episode: “The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs said Thursday that it will end a mortgage-rescue program designed to help […]

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I am eligible for an Italian passport which my brothers and sister will obtain also. Not sure as to whether I will use it any time soon due to how much our president impresses the world. I had some explaining to do in Germany when I was working there for six weeks. The US does […]

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This is about a 12-minute read. It is most of the CBO report minus what I thought would be extraneous information, detail you may not need. I get lost in the detail and have to read it a few times. These are projections based upon various assumptions. Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and […]

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As one commenter to this post (23 cars and trucks said) said: It is only for cars meeting the requirements of USMCA like having 75% of the parts sourced from North America. U.S. goods and services trade with USMCA totaled an estimated $1.8 trillion in 2022. Exports were $789.7 billion; imports were $974.3 billion. The […]

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– by New Deal democrat  Along with all the other reports, yesterday the JOLTS survey was updated for February. This survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, and so gives a more granular view. The question over the past year has been whether they best describe a “soft landing,” or “hard” […]

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Just some thoughts on manufacturing and international trade I have seen and experienced over the decades. I worked in automotive (care and trucks) for the Tier1s supplying wire harnesses and other components to Chrysler, Ford, and GM. The company also did business with foreign car manufacturers. This particular company was Japanese. US components were shipped […]

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For Trump, the suffering is a feature, not a bug. Here’s Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) to explain: “Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive. No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief. […]

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I wish I could put the entire article up; but then you would probably not read it. I did quite a bit of editing to get this article to the point of establishing what the Gov did during the pandemic concerning unemployment. Much of which was done during Joe Biden’s presidency. Besides showing the first […]

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February construction spending: nominal vs. real makes all the difference  – by New Deal democrat Since the turn of the Millennium, a downturn in manufacturing has not been enough to tip the economy into recession. There must also be a decline in construction as well. This morning’s construction spending report for February painted a substantially […]

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Arizona is among the states where K-12 public schools rely on federal funding, according to the Pew Research Center. During fiscal year 2022, 19.7% of Arizona school funding came from the federal government, according to the center. Arizona ranks in the bottom 25% of schools for quality of education. Underpaid teachers is one issue. Yet, AZ […]

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