Angry Bear

Another Great Day on the Golf Course and the Nation? Oh well . . .

Trump goes golfing while the nation burns . . . As taken from The Daily Beast “Amid the carnage of this week wrought by his own decision to start a global trade war and send the stock market plummeting, President Donald Trump experienced a personal victory after winning a round of golf at his own golf course. On Saturday, Trump won the […]

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Tesla wins, Detroit bleeds

“Tesla wins, Detroit bleeds,” Bernstein analysts led by Daniel Roeska declared Thursday. “Tesla is the clear structural winner…. For everyone else, this is a margin reset and real drag on near-term earnings power,” Roeska continued.” The only imported part for Teslas appears to be a wire harness made in Mexico. That’s expected to add less […]

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Trump crashed the world’s markets

Rachel Maddow: Trump crashed the world’s markets based on on the advice of a fictional economist. Summary The video highlights a Rachel Maddow segment revealing that Donald Trump’s tariff policy, destabilizing global markets, was based on advice from a fictional economist invented by Trump adviser Peter Navarro. This absurd but dangerous origin story underscores the […]

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March jobs report: possibly the last good report of the expansion

– by New Deal democrat My question over the past year has been whether “deceleration” would turn into “deterioration.” For a “soft landing,” deceleration would need to end, and the numbers stabilize, vs. continuing to deteriorate towards an actual downturn. With the stupefying economic moves by the new Administration, looking for hard data indicating the onset […]

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New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators April 1-5 + an update of the quick and dirty recession indicator

– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. You may be surprised to learn that despite the 10%+ stock market crash on Thursday and Friday, my rating for the short leading indicator of the S&P 500 is still “neutral.” That’s because the market is extremely volatile. There was an all-time […]

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Economically weighted ISM manufacturing + services on the cusp on yellow caution flag

– by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is much less important to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, the economically weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%), especially over a three-month period, has been much more accurate since 2000. In March the expansionary headline and new […]

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America’s Most Hated Car

I have been subscribing to The Atlantic for over a decade now. When I would travel by air to some far-off destination, I would have it in my brief case and also carry a book. It used to be, you could obtain a magazine or newspaper on an airplane. That disappeared and I do not […]

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MAGAnomics

Central beliefs of MAGAnomics: • If people get money (wages, whatever) they just eat it directly. They don’t pass it on to someone else, who then passes it on to someone else, etc…; • There are no gains from trade, individually or between countries; • If the government spends money, it’s just fake somehow. All […]

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Trump smites hedge funds

From the Financial Times (paywalled) via Eschaton: “Hedge funds have been hit with the biggest margin calls since Covid shut down huge parts of the global economy in 2020, after Donald Trump’s tariffs triggered a rout in global financial markets. “Wall Street banks have asked their hedge fund clients to stump up more money as […]

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Jobless claims continue tame

– by New Deal democrat This week initial jobless claims declined -6,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average declined -1,250 to 223,000. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims rose 56,000 to 1.903 million, the highest number since 2021: Since last year this week there was something of an outlier to the upside, by […]

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Congressional Control Goes to Trump and Musk

GOP’s subservience to Trump and Musk is also problematic for Democrats featured at MSNBC originally. The GOP is throwing out the powers that the Constitution gave Congress to better bow to the Republicans scrambling to keep Trump and Musk from hurting their constituents. The Constitution’s authors clearly saw Congress as being the first among equals in the […]

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“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition

“Those who cannot see must feel:” global trade and tariffs edition  – by New Deal democrat Before I get to today’s data, let me make this brief note on the tariffs that were announced late yesterday and the instant reaction overnight. As to the effect on the US and global economy, I really don’t have anything […]

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Versatility of conviction

The tariffs were always about extortion, soliciting bribes. They were never about helping the economy, balancing the budget, trade deficits or reducing taxes. “After multiple White House aides insisted that the new tariffs were not a negotiation, Trump said he would be open to negotiating with other countries about the duties. “Trump said he would […]

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Tesla stock price means nothing

I keep reading about how Tesla is in trouble. Well, yes, in the sense that its business model is a fail. But Tesla stock price has been defying gravity. Why? Probably because Musk, who is richer than God, can keep Tesla’s stock price afloat. How? Well as the commissar of DOGE, he’s managed to get […]

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The Trump Administration hates veterans (cont’d)

Trump called fallen American soldiers “suckers” and “losers.” Presumably because they didn’t find a podiatrist who could claim they had “bone spurs.” Now the Trump Administration is punishing living veterans for their service. In the latest episode: “The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs said Thursday that it will end a mortgage-rescue program designed to help […]

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Impressing the World with Tariffs

I am eligible for an Italian passport which my brothers and sister will obtain also. Not sure as to whether I will use it any time soon due to how much our president impresses the world. I had some explaining to do in Germany when I was working there for six weeks. The US does […]

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CBO Projection of Extending the 2017 Tax Breaks Plus Some

This is about a 12-minute read. It is most of the CBO report minus what I thought would be extraneous information, detail you may not need. I get lost in the detail and have to read it a few times. These are projections based upon various assumptions. Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Spending and […]

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Trade with Mexico and Canada

As one commenter to this post (23 cars and trucks said) said: It is only for cars meeting the requirements of USMCA like having 75% of the parts sourced from North America. U.S. goods and services trade with USMCA totaled an estimated $1.8 trillion in 2022. Exports were $789.7 billion; imports were $974.3 billion. The […]

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