– by New Deal democrat As per usual on Thursdays, let’s take a look at the very good short leading indicator of jobless claims. The bullet point take is that they continue to be among the most positive indicators of all at the moment. Last week only 206,000 people filed initial claims, down -6,000 from […]

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Governments tax labor at much higher rates than capital for what used to be good reasons: labor is less mobile, making such taxes easier to collect, and capital investments tend to boost human productivity and wages, meaning that taxes on labor indirectly capture the upside from capital spending. But if machines start to replace humans […]

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One of the greatest achievements in this century was making health insurance affordable to millions more Americans. In 2010, ~ 18 percent of people under 65 lacked healthcare insurance. By 2024, the rate had fallen below 10 percent The drop is the result of the Affordable Care Act plus legislation building on it. For once […]

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Can we afford Medicare for All? Given that health care in America costs per capita twice that of all the other industrialized nations with some form of single-payer with the same or worse outcomes, I should think so. But even with our current Medicare system, there’s an identifiable source of waste, fraud and abuse that […]

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Unemployment Summary for July 2926, Setting the Stage for something to take place. I do not know which way it is going to go as the numbers do not say much. We are probably in a period of stagnation. Trump is doing his best to turn it into a down turn. I do not see […]

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  – by New Deal democrat If housing permits and starts are in the forefront of long leading indicators, then industrial production and its components are among the most important coincident indicators, even if they are not as important as they were back when the US was the world’s industrial powerhouse. And if earlier this morning […]

The post The positive trend in manufacturing production continues, but are there signs of flagging AI-related growth? appeared first on Angry Bear.

Trump has threatened new economic sanctions on Iran in a tacit admission that his bombing war hasn’t brought Iran to capitulate to his masculine dominance. It’s not clear how these sanctions will relieve the stranglehold Iran holds on the Strait of Hormuz. It’s more likely that they’ll increase the cost of food and gas in […]

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Stalinism is one way of achieving industrialization like cannibalism is one way of achieving a high-protein diet. ~Robert Conquest

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The enrollment impact from cutting ACA subsidies hits all states whether up north on the East Coast, West Coast or down South. Charles Gaba is tracking the impact of Republicans cutting back on ACA subsidies and the impact on ACA healthcare insurance. Taken from Charles Gaba’s ACA Signups, Second Yellow Column on the ACA Effectuated […]

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– by New Deal democrat No significant economic news today, so let’s take the proverbial “35,000 foot” look at the US economy in the past two years. One of the things I have gone back and forth on over that time is whether there was a “mini-recession” late last year. As of the lastest revised data, […]

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The author is not revealing 20th century ideology in this commentary. Professor Heather is revealing a comment made by a Christian nationalists’ organization and individuals recently. This is like taking the Wayback Machine to view an important event. Except it is happening now. There are some people clamoring for a return of blocking women from […]

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Kind of slower these days for now anyways. I spent six days in the hospital. First a walkabout to see what was wrong. I have been eating oats plus other things for a long while. My cholesterol is low and I am active. Turned out I needed one artery cleaned out and one stent. May […]

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Democracy is not an easy form of government. It has none of the certainties of the various forms of tyranny. It demands that the governed as well as the governing make compromises, learn to to listen, and sometimes resist impulses. The champions of democracy are not the people who cling to power in its name, […]

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Kareem takes on the Head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Robert Kennedy. Excellent comparison to Woody Allen in “Sleeper.” I do not see what we can do about ditching Robert and getting someone more competent. When Tr__p leaves and we get a competent president, I am sure Robert will be leaving […]

The post If the Disease Doesn’t Kill You, Listening to RFK Jr. Just Might appeared first on Angry Bear.

 – by New Deal democrat Let me start out this post with my updated overall conception of the long leading indicators. To begin with, most of them are financial — generally speaking, “the cost of money.” That applies to bond interest rates, the yield curve, real money supply, and bank lending. Recently, I’ve also indicated […]

The post The neutral trend in the most reliable long leading indicators in housing continues appeared first on Angry Bear.

There’s a lot of controversy surrounding Flock cameras. The cops say they help catch crooks. The civil libertarians say big brother is watching you. Some camera operators are using them to spy on girlfriends. Turns out that retail stores have been using them to reduce “shrinkage,” aka shoplifting. But digital surveillance comes at a price. […]

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Foreign policy has always been the area in which Trump was likely to do the most damage to America and the world.  In 2024, it was clear from his first term that, if re-elected, he would undermine our alliances and violate our treaty commitments.  This would embolden our adversaries, reduce our influence with our friends, […]

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President Trump won’t even be straight with the country about how he’s running out of weapons – when his war has depleted well upwards of 90% of certain crucial munitions, as Zeteo has learned. When reporters have dug in on this topic, he’s huffily accused them of “treason,” and pledged that those responsible for leaking […]

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Of inflation and corporate bond spreads  – by New Deal democrat Over the weekend, in response to my “Weekly Indicators” post, a commenter wanted to know why I was concerned about inflation. After all, hadn’t core CPI just tied its post pandemic low? And it is true: core inflation (blue), at 2.5% YoY, is equal to […]

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I do not know why Tr__p wanted to go alone with this. Other countries did not want to be a part of this. The country of Oman has been acting as a go between for the United States and Iran. He couldn’t wait, I guess? NPR: “Oman has played a relatively low-profile role since the […]

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