That's what I like about this economics site above all others- the predictions match reality. With the arrest of Bernard L Madoff and the collapse of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities reported yesterday, we have sudden insight into the main problem of Hedge Funds- the flat trading commission, people paid according to market volume rather than according to whether or not the trade made anybody any money.
The way I see it, next summer's so-called respite at this rate (along with the obvious hoarding of cash going on with 4-week T-Bills hitting 0%) will be just a respite on paper- accompanied with a food famine.
I was wondering about M3 (did they divide that at all in the 1930's?)
But, in your graph, you have the great depression circled, but to me the real woe was from 1929-1934 and there is looks like a contraction, with a response after the fact of increasing it.
It would be nice to zero in on that time period.
I think things fundamentally improved until the 1937 period but didn't they try to reign in federal spending due to the budget deficit at that time?
but as shown above, from the middle of the depression on, the monetary base expanded substantially.
Iirc, there was no concept of "M1" or "M2" at the time, so the Fed had no way of keeping track of it, wherease they did have data for and kept track of the monetary base.
If any American needed yet another lesson in what the Republican Party is about 'Fat' Mitch gave it to 'em yesterday. Politically this is the end of the ReThug Party they are now on life support as they will never win MI, IL, OH or IN again.
In fact this was so stupid and so vile an action that the news this am is that the WH will, in outstanding Bush style, take money from elsewhere to help the automakers. That's right the WH, George W. Bush realizes that we just can't let Detroit fail right now for chump change just so Southren White Senators can destroy the UAW.
Finally, imagine what's going thu the minds of every citizen of the states I listed above. Wheee, I don't think Republicanism and 'conservative' economics are real popular at the moment.
Change is on the way and as long as the Republicans keep diggin' that hole I am content.
How the some of the kool-aid drinkers have glammed onto the auto makers bailout as a bad thing but Wall Street had to be done.
The media has paraded these auto exec's in front of the public with their hand out and somehow that makes them repulsive. In my opinion they should be tossed out on their keesters. But the industry needs to be saved, too many jobs depend on it.
Next time somebody rants about the auto makers bailout ask them how many CEO's from Citi, AIG, Goldman, JP Morgan, BEAR ... had to show up in Washington with their hand out?
One small silver lining in this. Almost certainly YoY PPI will now be less than YoY CPI. This typically happens later in recessions, and it means producer profits can begin to increase. It is basically a necessary but not sufficient indicator.
But of course with all the carnage on Wall Street, "let them eat cash" rapidly transmogrifies to "let them eat treasuries". So I guess in a way, you're correct.
Between Sept 15 and October 31, the Treasury issued $950 billion in new debt. Since then the Fed has printed $600 billion in new cash and the Treasury has issued only $75 billion in new debt. All that cash needs a place to go and Wall Street and Hedge Funds aren't looking so good. Couple the expansion of the monetary base with a 10 fold reduction in the issuance of new debt and dollar recycling from places like China and shezam, negative returns on T-bills.
These absolutely insane zig-zags in policy coordination between the Fed and Treasury are creating some very serious distortions in the market. With all that education and experience you'd think these folks could do better. Of course if it's the wrong experience...
Seriously, I think NDD has it right. Issue some egregiously long term debt. That would be very beneficial to the US and a very nice hedge against a sudden increase in the cost of US debt should the idiots currently in charge continue to lurch from one policy position to the next. Financial epilepsy is not a pretty sight.
And so, the very same people who now refuse to help workers who are allegedly earning $73/hour, had no problem bailing out Wall Streeters who were earning $73/second! (and attaching no strings to executive compensation of course).
Since the temple walls of US-style capitalism are now virtually certain to rain down on us, wouldn't it have been nice if we hadn't blown $700 billion first?
These people are idiots - industries decline and maybe the US car industry needs to be restructured. However, simply allowing an industry to collapse is criminal in terms of impact on people lives, whole towns, etc.
the last ones they should be attacking are the UAW.
This is so stupid, they are paying zero attention to the $700B and using the big 3 as political football when it will have a much larger negative impact on US workers than the financial sector.
Look folks, the big 3 have been going downhill for 30 years because they produce an inferior product as well as having poor management.I myself am over 50 yet have never owned a US car (and I certainly wouldn't now). Let's not throw away money. The TARP was rammed down the public's throat by scare mongering. Not again!
Some of our most *mission critical* industries aren't seeing PPI decrease- but they are seeing CPI decrease. This will mean farm bankruptcies....
That's what I like about this economics site above all others- the predictions match reality. With the arrest of Bernard L Madoff and the collapse of Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities reported yesterday, we have sudden insight into the main problem of Hedge Funds- the flat trading commission, people paid according to market volume rather than according to whether or not the trade made anybody any money.
The way I see it, next summer's so-called respite at this rate (along with the obvious hoarding of cash going on with 4-week T-Bills hitting 0%) will be just a respite on paper- accompanied with a food famine.
I was wondering about M3 (did they divide that at all in the 1930's?)
But, in your graph, you have the great depression circled, but to me the real woe was from 1929-1934 and there is looks like a contraction, with a response after the fact of increasing it.
It would be nice to zero in on that time period.
I think things fundamentally improved until the 1937 period but didn't they try to reign in federal spending due to the budget deficit at that time?
but as shown above, from the middle of the depression on, the monetary base expanded substantially.
Iirc, there was no concept of "M1" or "M2" at the time, so the Fed had no way of keeping track of it, wherease they did have data for and kept track of the monetary base.
....they just call for a wire transfer.
No...
If any American needed yet another lesson in what the Republican Party is about 'Fat' Mitch gave it to 'em yesterday. Politically this is the end of the ReThug Party they are now on life support as they will never win MI, IL, OH or IN again.
In fact this was so stupid and so vile an action that the news this am is that the WH will, in outstanding Bush style, take money from elsewhere to help the automakers. That's right the WH, George W. Bush realizes that we just can't let Detroit fail right now for chump change just so Southren White Senators can destroy the UAW.
Finally, imagine what's going thu the minds of every citizen of the states I listed above. Wheee, I don't think Republicanism and 'conservative' economics are real popular at the moment.
Change is on the way and as long as the Republicans keep diggin' that hole I am content.
I have a Ford Escort that is a wonderful car- 50 MPG if I shift it right. My wife's Chevy Venture 2002 gets 30MPG in a VAN!
This smacks of hatred of the working class, the way it was done.
Why do they slam the industrial workers, not acknowledging the executives in Wall Street are making so much money.
It is that messaging machine which is truly some strange.
I thought the fed during that time tightened the money supply as well as lending during 1930-1933.
How the some of the kool-aid drinkers have glammed onto the auto makers bailout as a bad thing but Wall Street had to be done.
The media has paraded these auto exec's in front of the public with their hand out and somehow that makes them repulsive. In my opinion they should be tossed out on their keesters. But the industry needs to be saved, too many jobs depend on it.
Next time somebody rants about the auto makers bailout ask them how many CEO's from Citi, AIG, Goldman, JP Morgan, BEAR ... had to show up in Washington with their hand out?
Finished goods up 0.4% YoY.
One small silver lining in this. Almost certainly YoY PPI will now be less than YoY CPI. This typically happens later in recessions, and it means producer profits can begin to increase. It is basically a necessary but not sufficient indicator.
But of course with all the carnage on Wall Street, "let them eat cash" rapidly transmogrifies to "let them eat treasuries". So I guess in a way, you're correct.
Between Sept 15 and October 31, the Treasury issued $950 billion in new debt. Since then the Fed has printed $600 billion in new cash and the Treasury has issued only $75 billion in new debt. All that cash needs a place to go and Wall Street and Hedge Funds aren't looking so good. Couple the expansion of the monetary base with a 10 fold reduction in the issuance of new debt and dollar recycling from places like China and shezam, negative returns on T-bills.
These absolutely insane zig-zags in policy coordination between the Fed and Treasury are creating some very serious distortions in the market. With all that education and experience you'd think these folks could do better. Of course if it's the wrong experience...
Seriously, I think NDD has it right. Issue some egregiously long term debt. That would be very beneficial to the US and a very nice hedge against a sudden increase in the cost of US debt should the idiots currently in charge continue to lurch from one policy position to the next. Financial epilepsy is not a pretty sight.
And so, the very same people who now refuse to help workers who are allegedly earning $73/hour, had no problem bailing out Wall Streeters who were earning $73/second! (and attaching no strings to executive compensation of course).
Since the temple walls of US-style capitalism are now virtually certain to rain down on us, wouldn't it have been nice if we hadn't blown $700 billion first?
These people are idiots - industries decline and maybe the US car industry needs to be restructured. However, simply allowing an industry to collapse is criminal in terms of impact on people lives, whole towns, etc.
Bloomberg has filed a FOIA on the Federal Reserve to reveal who has gotten now $2 trillion in US taxpayer dollars and for what collateral.
It's denied. Hats off to Bloomberg for doing this.
latest on refusal to reveal.
story here.
The markets are tanking too.
Since they could not stop the financial bail out they are going after this.
Well...I'm under 50, and have proudly owned a US car. I'm sorry, but TARP and this are different.
What's wrong with these people and yes I am well aware GM is outsourcing but so is Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and so on.
This is just one thing I don't want to say "see I told you so".
the last ones they should be attacking are the UAW.
This is so stupid, they are paying zero attention to the $700B and using the big 3 as political football when it will have a much larger negative impact on US workers than the financial sector.
Look folks, the big 3 have been going downhill for 30 years because they produce an inferior product as well as having poor management.I myself am over 50 yet have never owned a US car (and I certainly wouldn't now). Let's not throw away money. The TARP was rammed down the public's throat by scare mongering. Not again!
Pages