Why do you suppose the Keystone Pipeline travels to the Gulf of Mexico
and does not stop anywhere in the Midwestern or Southern refineries? The answer
is just what Canada says: the refined product is going to Asia. Canada makes the
extra point that the pipleline could have been constructed from Alberta to Vancouver.
Again, the oil is going to Asia. Just keep repeating that phrase.
The Wealth of Nations has a section regarding gold which Smith called the Money Price of Gold. In so many ways, oil will behave like gold. A gold chart for the timeframe of 1972 to 2012 would look just a spikey with gold moving from $35 (1971). almost $2000 (2008-9). There is 60 fold change in oil ($2.50 / bbl) when the Saudis started charging
market prices and abandonded the Royalty agreement with ARAMCO. Gold moves from $35 to 2000 (factor of 57) in the same 40 year timeframe.
Eyeball the long-term price chart of oil, and you can see a classic head-and-shoulders pattern, There is a major top coming in the next 3-5 years. This is not to play down the manipulation theory. The best case I have seen is the EIA charts. The futures and spot prices all spike but the consumption hardly changes. There is a real divergence between price and demand. Why would demand be so stable or weak, and price be so frothy? Look at the futures and cash prices. These markets are the raw meat of the oil speculators.
First of all, The Canadian oil line should have been done, second, sice number 1 solution hasn't been done why not go back to way things were ran in the 1900s and before that even, with gasifiers! Yes it would look tacky but the prices would be way better, and its a renewable sorce. why doesnt America use them anymore? Are they forgotton?
OIL OIL OIL
EZRA KLEIN WONKBOOK 2-24-12
EIA FORECAST NET PETROLEUM IMPORTS TO DECLINE
TO 36% OF TOTAL LIQUID FUEL CONSUMPTION BY 2035.
49% IN 2010—60% IN 2005
THE US HAS BECOME A NET----EXPORTER ---OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS.
FIRST TIME IN 62 YEARS
US OIL COMPANIES ARE NOW EXPORTING OIL:
THEY BLAME FALLING US DEMAND
SUPPLY AND DEMAND DETERMINES PRICES????
FALLING DEMAND = RISING PRICES????
The site crashed screwed up anonymous comments and security. It should be working now. Any problem writing comments, please use the contact form and let us know.
Great graph. I had to study it and the line colors are at the bottom. After staring at it for awhile I see what you mean. Seems that the focus on 2008 quickly shifted to the banks but earlier in the year it was oil/gas killing us.
We were front paged by Google news which was giving the site the "Digg" effect. In trying to offload processing we have a PHP Feature called "throttle", but this exposed a major site component bug which gave us the WSOD.
Sorry about that, trying to make the site load for all and ended up crashing it!
Anyone suggesting that 8.3% is a good number in and of itself is a little off. BUT so is anyone who wants to act like there's nothing positive to be garnered by such progress. It is simply a very positive figure given what we've had in recent years and given what other countries are still going through now. Quibble with the numbers all you want but the bottom line is that unemployment is going down and we are starting, at long last, to see job growth. Forget the political spin, that is amazing news for many families who are finally able to send dad/mom/both back into the working field after struggling to put food on the table, let alone pay the bills, for the last few years.
Acting like 8.3% is, on its own, fantastic is a little foolish but acting like there's nothing worth a positive outlook unless unemployment drops below 4% is not just incredibly unrealistic but also even more foolish than cheering the 8.3% rate. Looking around the globe I can't help but be extremely grateful that our country has handled this financial crisis as well as it has and yes things are starting to improve even if it is not as fast as you or others may like.
You don't get it, clearly. Budget deficits do not correlate immediately to economic growth, which is why Keynes works and no the Stimulus was not Keynesian. Your comment is spurious, at best. It's only long term economic growth where deficits matter and in the short term, cuts will send the economy a hit. That's why you don't want draconian cuts in the middle of an economic contraction.
Ya know, quit reading your bible or whatever belief you seem to be stuck on, from whatever crackpot spinmeister you're listening to, and crack a few economic texts. You can buy older editions of undergraduate economic texts for a couple of bucks used.
2008 was caused by banks with their derivative laden house of cards implosion and financial trading desk circle jerk, not budget deficits.
The press acting like 8.3% is a great number is an atrocity, but 8.3% is correct, but by BLS statistical definitions. I think I last calculated out the "real" unemployment rate at 18%, tis true, but this is another type of metric. Initial claims are the number of people filing for unemployment insurance (and the percentage who do not actual get it is high). The correlation here is when people lose their job, they file. But UI only covers W2 type of jobs. It doesn't cover contract jobs for the most part or the self-employed.
It all boils down to definitions from the BLS, the types of questions asked on their survey and the survey size, plus the all important Census. If Census data is wrong, then the entire BLS CPS is wrong. (there are two surveys by the BLS, the CPS are people and where the unemployment rates come from).
But the press acting like things are all rosy with an official unemployment rate of 8.3% is pretty nuts. It should be down in the 4% range.
That's another reason to graph data up, in one look you can see the unemployment rate is over double what it should be and that's the official unemployment rate, which has always left out large groups of people.
Anyway, I know what you're saying and I agree, the employment picture in the U.S. is horrific and that is with these improved statistics.
So, if there are approx., +28m total under/unemployed
with a LFP of say +/-154m? wouldn't that put the
U6 rate around 18%-19%? If not what is the correct figure. If this is correct though, I wish you would have mentioned that. I think it it is important to list the real figures for U3 and U6 every chance we get. Since the mega-corporate owned media keeps saying that headline unemployment is 8.3% which we know is NOT true.
Calculated Risk goes through some of the insights and his own on housing inventory here.
We caught the main one, foreclosures were postponed, in the above post. Housing inventory matters in terms of markets and 6 months is far away from 8 months in terms of price implications, recovery and such.
Not that we don't think housing prices need to still drop until they finally come into alignment with wages in the U.S. for the majority.
I thought so too and the list of demands is good too. One of the biggest complaints about OWS was the lack of specifics and hence "pepper spray" got headline news instead of the issues. I imagine if one polled the list of demands from this 99% site, they would hit 80% or greater in agreement, across the political spectrum, which is also good.
It's a good idea. Making a declaration from Philly on the Fourth of July is a powerful statement, and we as Occupiers can take it and run with it. I'm willing to see if the website pans out, and if it doesn't I will still be up there looking up fellow Occupiers to get this done. If there isn't a hall to meet in we can go to the park. We can meet in front of Independence Hall on the morning July 1st and go from there. We're quite flexible and determined.
I also love how the banks can commit $17 billion to delivering $32 billion of value. What does that mean? Is it like my wife buying cosmetics: spend $50 and get this gift that's a $24 value? Who assesses what the value is? If you have an 8% loan, and I write off $1000 from it, do I get to call it a $2000 value because that's the total principal and interest you would have to have paid by the end of the loan?
When lawyers use words without real meaning, watch out!
Why do you suppose the Keystone Pipeline travels to the Gulf of Mexico
and does not stop anywhere in the Midwestern or Southern refineries? The answer
is just what Canada says: the refined product is going to Asia. Canada makes the
extra point that the pipleline could have been constructed from Alberta to Vancouver.
Again, the oil is going to Asia. Just keep repeating that phrase.
The Wealth of Nations has a section regarding gold which Smith called the Money Price of Gold. In so many ways, oil will behave like gold. A gold chart for the timeframe of 1972 to 2012 would look just a spikey with gold moving from $35 (1971). almost $2000 (2008-9). There is 60 fold change in oil ($2.50 / bbl) when the Saudis started charging
market prices and abandonded the Royalty agreement with ARAMCO. Gold moves from $35 to 2000 (factor of 57) in the same 40 year timeframe.
Eyeball the long-term price chart of oil, and you can see a classic head-and-shoulders pattern, There is a major top coming in the next 3-5 years. This is not to play down the manipulation theory. The best case I have seen is the EIA charts. The futures and spot prices all spike but the consumption hardly changes. There is a real divergence between price and demand. Why would demand be so stable or weak, and price be so frothy? Look at the futures and cash prices. These markets are the raw meat of the oil speculators.
Retail Prices (Dollars per Gallon)
Futures Prices (Dollars per Gallon*)
Stocks (Million Barrels)
First of all, The Canadian oil line should have been done, second, sice number 1 solution hasn't been done why not go back to way things were ran in the 1900s and before that even, with gasifiers! Yes it would look tacky but the prices would be way better, and its a renewable sorce. why doesnt America use them anymore? Are they forgotton?
OIL OIL OIL
EZRA KLEIN WONKBOOK 2-24-12
EIA FORECAST NET PETROLEUM IMPORTS TO DECLINE
TO 36% OF TOTAL LIQUID FUEL CONSUMPTION BY 2035.
49% IN 2010—60% IN 2005
THE US HAS BECOME A NET----EXPORTER ---OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS.
FIRST TIME IN 62 YEARS
US OIL COMPANIES ARE NOW EXPORTING OIL:
THEY BLAME FALLING US DEMAND
SUPPLY AND DEMAND DETERMINES PRICES????
FALLING DEMAND = RISING PRICES????
SELL OVERSEASES REDUCES OUR SUPPLY THUS RAISES OUR PRICES??????
The site crashed screwed up anonymous comments and security. It should be working now. Any problem writing comments, please use the contact form and let us know.
Great graph. I had to study it and the line colors are at the bottom. After staring at it for awhile I see what you mean. Seems that the focus on 2008 quickly shifted to the banks but earlier in the year it was oil/gas killing us.
We were front paged by Google news which was giving the site the "Digg" effect. In trying to offload processing we have a PHP Feature called "throttle", but this exposed a major site component bug which gave us the WSOD.
Sorry about that, trying to make the site load for all and ended up crashing it!
It's back now. Won't try that one again.
This is Bullard as well as Plosser, saying there will be no QE3.
I'm glad to see this kind of comment for your argument is valid and it's true, we are seeing unemployment indicators decreasing, no doubt about it.
I'm just happy we have intelligent readers, right, wrong, or in-between, it's just refreshing to see intelligent debate on economic statistics here.
Anyone suggesting that 8.3% is a good number in and of itself is a little off. BUT so is anyone who wants to act like there's nothing positive to be garnered by such progress. It is simply a very positive figure given what we've had in recent years and given what other countries are still going through now. Quibble with the numbers all you want but the bottom line is that unemployment is going down and we are starting, at long last, to see job growth. Forget the political spin, that is amazing news for many families who are finally able to send dad/mom/both back into the working field after struggling to put food on the table, let alone pay the bills, for the last few years.
Acting like 8.3% is, on its own, fantastic is a little foolish but acting like there's nothing worth a positive outlook unless unemployment drops below 4% is not just incredibly unrealistic but also even more foolish than cheering the 8.3% rate. Looking around the globe I can't help but be extremely grateful that our country has handled this financial crisis as well as it has and yes things are starting to improve even if it is not as fast as you or others may like.
You don't get it, clearly. Budget deficits do not correlate immediately to economic growth, which is why Keynes works and no the Stimulus was not Keynesian. Your comment is spurious, at best. It's only long term economic growth where deficits matter and in the short term, cuts will send the economy a hit. That's why you don't want draconian cuts in the middle of an economic contraction.
Ya know, quit reading your bible or whatever belief you seem to be stuck on, from whatever crackpot spinmeister you're listening to, and crack a few economic texts. You can buy older editions of undergraduate economic texts for a couple of bucks used.
2008 was caused by banks with their derivative laden house of cards implosion and financial trading desk circle jerk, not budget deficits.
How did 2008 work out? I rest my case.
The press acting like 8.3% is a great number is an atrocity, but 8.3% is correct, but by BLS statistical definitions. I think I last calculated out the "real" unemployment rate at 18%, tis true, but this is another type of metric. Initial claims are the number of people filing for unemployment insurance (and the percentage who do not actual get it is high). The correlation here is when people lose their job, they file. But UI only covers W2 type of jobs. It doesn't cover contract jobs for the most part or the self-employed.
It all boils down to definitions from the BLS, the types of questions asked on their survey and the survey size, plus the all important Census. If Census data is wrong, then the entire BLS CPS is wrong. (there are two surveys by the BLS, the CPS are people and where the unemployment rates come from).
But the press acting like things are all rosy with an official unemployment rate of 8.3% is pretty nuts. It should be down in the 4% range.
See this post for a graph.
That's another reason to graph data up, in one look you can see the unemployment rate is over double what it should be and that's the official unemployment rate, which has always left out large groups of people.
Anyway, I know what you're saying and I agree, the employment picture in the U.S. is horrific and that is with these improved statistics.
So, if there are approx., +28m total under/unemployed
with a LFP of say +/-154m? wouldn't that put the
U6 rate around 18%-19%? If not what is the correct figure. If this is correct though, I wish you would have mentioned that. I think it it is important to list the real figures for U3 and U6 every chance we get. Since the mega-corporate owned media keeps saying that headline unemployment is 8.3% which we know is NOT true.
A wonderful precedent is being set. I bet the people of Italy, Spain, Portugal. . . and the US will love it when their turn comes around.
Calculated Risk goes through some of the insights and his own on housing inventory here.
We caught the main one, foreclosures were postponed, in the above post. Housing inventory matters in terms of markets and 6 months is far away from 8 months in terms of price implications, recovery and such.
Not that we don't think housing prices need to still drop until they finally come into alignment with wages in the U.S. for the majority.
No surprise, Fitch just downgraded Greece to one credit rating above "default".
I thought so too and the list of demands is good too. One of the biggest complaints about OWS was the lack of specifics and hence "pepper spray" got headline news instead of the issues. I imagine if one polled the list of demands from this 99% site, they would hit 80% or greater in agreement, across the political spectrum, which is also good.
It's a good idea. Making a declaration from Philly on the Fourth of July is a powerful statement, and we as Occupiers can take it and run with it. I'm willing to see if the website pans out, and if it doesn't I will still be up there looking up fellow Occupiers to get this done. If there isn't a hall to meet in we can go to the park. We can meet in front of Independence Hall on the morning July 1st and go from there. We're quite flexible and determined.
I love the term foreclosure Kraken.
I also love how the banks can commit $17 billion to delivering $32 billion of value. What does that mean? Is it like my wife buying cosmetics: spend $50 and get this gift that's a $24 value? Who assesses what the value is? If you have an 8% loan, and I write off $1000 from it, do I get to call it a $2000 value because that's the total principal and interest you would have to have paid by the end of the loan?
When lawyers use words without real meaning, watch out!
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