Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised upward to 3.9% from the original 3.5%. The reason was investment, as changes in private inventories were revised sharply upward. Consumer spending was also stronger by over a quarter of a percentage point and also bumped up the revision. Imports were revised upward and exports downward which subtracted from economic growth. Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly strong in this Turkey surprise.
Third quarter 2014 real GDP came in at a strong 3.5%. This is the second quarter in a row for solid economic growth. Q1 showed a contraction Take a good look for Q3 GDP will be revised and we estimate strongly downward as imports come into the Census for tabulation. Private inventories contracted, hence investment was much less than Q2. Consumer spending was also tamer. Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly solid.
Q2 2014 real GDP was revised to 4.6%, a strong showing not seen since Q4 2011. Q2 Gross Domestic Product also cancels out the dismal Q1 -2.1% real GDP contraction for the year. Growth was across the board. Investment showed large growth. Personal consumption expenditures increased and were a large component of GDP. Changes in private inventories was a large GDP contribution, but so were exports.
Q4 2013 real GDP was revised significantly downward from the original 3.2% to a weak, measly 2.4%. Personal consumption expenditures was revised down over half a percentage point of GDP. The original estimate for exports was also revised down over a quarter of a percentage point. If the Q4 downward revision in consumer spending isn't bad enough, for all of 2013 annual real GDP was just 1.9%. In 2012, annual GDP was 2.8%.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders declined by -1.0% for January 2014, but December 2013 new orders were revised downward to a -5.3% plunge. The better news of this report is core capital goods increased by 1.7%. For the last three of four months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.
Q4 2013 real GDP has come in at 3.2%, a good showing. Personal consumption expenditures was almost 70% of the growth whereas federal government spending took off almost a percentage point of GDP. Exports increased significantly while imports did not.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders plunged by -4.3% for December 2013 after a 2.6% increase in November. The really bad news in this report is core capital goods declined by -1.3%. For the last two of three months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined. While December is shaping up to a bad month for the economy, a word of caution as durable goods are often revised dramatically.
The BEA has released revisions for Gross Domestic Product by Industry for years 1997 all the way to 2012. Unfortunately but not surprising, manufacturing was revised downward in their real value added to economic growth. Overall GDP grew 2.8% in 2012 and that year's better news is private goods GDP increased more in growth in comparison to private sector services.
The U.S. November 2013 monthly trade deficit plunged -12.9% from last month due to a massive drop in oil imports. While the press headlines blare November's $34.25 billion trade deficit is at a four year low, what they are not reporting is just last June the deficit also dropped suddenly and very close to this figure.
The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.5% for November 2013 after a -0.7% decrease in October. The really good news in this report is the growth in core capital goods. New orders in core capital goods increased 4.5% for November This report is often revised dramatically, yet even inventories did not decline. Even without volatile aircraft durable goods new orders increased.
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