Interesting that two of three states with the 2/3rd rule are in the red: California and Rhode Island. They are dominated by a minority who prevent raising taxes.

the most government intervention. In fact they gave it a name....The Great Depression.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4B06ZD20081201?virtualBran...

There is an awful lot of data that suggests the FDR stimulus extended the recession. I've lived in earthquake country and those little rumblings are much needed to relieve pressure and there is little you can do. It seems that maybe the more government does to stop the small rumbles leads us to the big quake.

Sometimes just as in the physical world, the immediate economic medicine must be received to stop the long term illness.

Goes back in history a bit more.........

http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html

This was written in Feb. 2002....

"The Nippon government has tried to spend its way out of the problem, Keynesian-style, to no avail. Instead, total government debt in Japan has risen 140% of GDP, the highest in the OECD and an astounding 465% of government revenues.

The only answer appears to be to let the Japanese currency collapse so that Japan can revive by selling more goods abroad by lowering their prices. But if the yen falls sharply, Japan will cause competitive devaluations from currencies throughout Asia. That could lead to further deflation pressures in the US and a prolonged stagnant world economy. The land of cheap electronics and Godzilla movies is leading the world to the brink of disaster."

Like Japan we had the stimulus spending.
Then the second paragraph mentions devaluations. I ask, is the dollar getting stronger or weaker?

Government wastes so much freaking money. Take the Medicaid long term care. If an elderly person just needs a bit of help with activity daily living (ADL's), maybe they need help making meals or other little ADL's. Medicare will not pay anything for home health care. The cost to have an agency to stop by once a day, the cost may be $15,000 to $20,000. Instead Medicaid will pay to have that person put into a nursing home to the tune of $40,000, $50,000 or $75,000 a year. Plus the person must move out of their house. I currently know of a person that is in the above
problem. The nursing home will bill Medicaid $7100/month and nobody will bat an eyelash.

Errrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!! Just like Medicare they waste money like a drunken sailor. Who the hell is running that show? Finally I've read (after 40 years of abuse) Medicare will start looking into fraud. Oh dear....that will mean their administration rate will go up. I am sure they will roll it over into another program.

DO I seem jaded?

1. Find some unused land along a transit corridor
2. Buy a riding lawnmower with rototiller attachment
3. Divide land into10x10 plots for yearly rent.
4. Rent to city folks for gardens.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.

you are more optimistic than I am, since I'm figuring 10.1% unemployment by July, even if that month marks the NBER end of the recession, rising to ~12% in 2010.

I'm not optimistic at all. I just don't have any hard info, or even official numbers, to base a more realistic prediction on. I wish I had some hard data from the late 19th Century, because there is nothing from the post-WWII recessions to base the current Depression on.
To be honest I do expect an "accident" before the end of the year, probably coming from California or overseas. I think we are only months away from another economic shock, and I think the political fallout from all this is going to be scary indeed.

This all started out yesterday when I was thinking about my personal situation, and it became a more general academic exercise.

Enough stimulus that is. I know deficit hawks are howling but the fact is that the government, with deficit spending, is the only player in the economy. Now, I am afraid it is politically too late to seek more.

But the spending has to be about priorities: infrastructure improvements, education, health care and environment - that is it. Good-bye subsidies, war spending. The tough calls and decisions have to be made.

Sadly, for someone who supported this President throughout the election cycle, his actions have not met the enormity of the problems.

The recession hasn't really begun, let alone being over. Petroleum based 1st world economies without domestic reserves are going to be at the mercies of the oil producing nations. This will destabilize any "recoveries" as they begin. This will lead us to see a continuing cycle of growth and failure as rising energy prices collapse demand.

Add the above to a system with unstable, unregulated banks,insurance and financial industries and a collapsing housing bubble, wholesale unemployment and an aging demographic and we have the recipe for perfect disaster.

Our only hope is replacing our petroleum based economy with a more stable locally based economy utilizing agricultural & technology based solutions such as hemp to replace petrochemicals and solar/wind/tidal to replace petroenergy.

All of these changes will be opposed by the powerful industries that have financial interests in maintaining the status quo. If we cannot change our economy, it is destined to die and many of us with it. As people realize this fact, violence and confrontations will increase, causing the state to clamp down on civil rights and America will become an overt police state rather than the hidden police state we currently inhabit.

The future is uncertain and full of massive changes, the only thing certain is that the pre-bubble world can never be resurrected.

you are more optimistic than I am, since I'm figuring 10.1% unemployment by July, even if that month marks the NBER end of the recession, rising to ~12% in 2010.

One caution about housing starts: in the aftermath of the 1920s housing bubble, starts didn't bottom until 1935, two years after the bottom of the recession. Whether we reach a bottom here or not probably depends on whether there is another "event" ratcheting down economic activity (as there was last September).

Speaking from someone who currently lives in California, I have to wonder if I need to make plans for going elsewhere.
And if California, the 8th largest economy in the world, goes down, how can they honestly expect the economy of the rest of America not to collapse with it?

I think that comment claiming somehow workers would keep their jobs while services are suspended is wrong.

Also, the site has changed so we need to promote all posts now to the front page. So everyone has to use the promotion/demotion arrows on the bottom right of posts.

I should be shocked by the per person deficit but the Fed calculations make this look like chump change.