"I find it unfathomable that people are not horrified about what is going to happen," said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute. "I regard all this talk about how the recession is maybe going to end, all the talk about deficits and inflation, to be the equivalent of telling Americans, 'You are just going to have to tough it out.' But we're looking at persistent unemployment that is going to be extraordinarily damaging to many communities. There is a ton of pain in the pipeline."
So, I have to agree, now it's just being spun that the TARP and all of the bail outs saved the day, but where is the definitive proof?
Now Congress is talking about a $15k tax credit to buy a home (let's re-inflate the bubble and fraud shall we?) and Dean Baker called out the obvious manipulations and housing flips this could cause.
Nothing changed. The sad thing is that it is working class people who are hurt the most by these economic crises. I do believe we have established a "new" normal for economic growth. We can adjust to that but it is the financial oligarchy and financial conglomerates that can't afford to adjust so they, with the help of Fed and Summer/Geithner, will try to re-inflate the asset and credit bubbles. That is the only way that they can survive.
The financial oligarchy has essentially gotten off scott free. Nothing has changed. In fact many underlying factors that make financial conglomerates balance sheets still toxic remain. Unemployment exceeding "worse case" scenario on "stress test" is just an example that things may actually get worse. Fed and Treasury is hoping the zombie banks can earn their way out of this mess. That will extremely difficult thing to do with unemployment over 11%.
The time for dramatic action has long past. Now, we sit and wait and hope for the best. Just like the "Lost Decade".
I would say "let that be a lesson to anyone" who just takes a graph or a scalar (number) and extrapolates the end of the world from that.
Although one thing I am really wondering about is EIs and their divergence from the real economy. We know this is true for the middle class, plenty of data showing the slide in wages over 30 years, career stability and so on.
I mean if we do not look at one in particular lagging indicator, jobs, esp. right now, the stats are looking like bottle rockets giving off warnings (straight up!) ...well, there is no recovery on main street.
(but I think you mean in your post lagging indicators that are more about GDP and their implications thereof).
Did you see the further breakdown/debate of CPI coming from the Atlanta Fed blog? (bottom right and they are running a fantastic blog!)
1. As the recession gets worse, one sector I'm seeing get the customers is *local* businesses- those that depend on natural resources within easy farm trucking distance of a city, or that rely on lesser amounts of imported natural resources and local manufacturing. Farmer's markets, craft fairs, and the like are getting the business- and they don't need long distance shipping.
2. There was a recent story in the Oregonian that pointed out that many smaller towns in Eastern Oregon are seeing a new visual blight to their vistas: idled railcars, excess capacity in the system that is being parked just wherever the rail companies can find the space. Originally bought for a new boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s in rail shipping, which is much more environmentally friendly than truck shipping, the rail companies overpurchased rolling stock, and now that the trains aren't rolling, are having problems finding rare sidings to park cars on.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
There is no possible way smoot-hawley had anything to do with causing the Great Depression. It was not put into place until the early 1930's, long AFTER the economy/stock-market crashed. It is not possible for the cause to occur after the effect!!
Instead, the excesses of the 1920's (credit/banking/wall street excesses) are the primary cause of the Great Depression (sounds familiar - eh?).
The general idea that the US taxpayers are responsible for taking care of the world (incarceration, education, jobs, medicine, welfare, foreign aid, ...) is finally coming home to roost.
Huge deficits at the state and federal level and millions of CITIZENS unemployed and in poverty and you still have foolish politicians wanting to spend taxpayer money to save the world. This is the definition of insanity.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A quarter of U.S. employers have eliminated matching contributions to employee 401(k) retirement plans since September to save money amid the economy's downturn, according to research released on Monday.
A quarter of U.S. employers also have instituted limited enrollment rather than open the savings plans to all employees, according to the study conducted for Charles Schwab Corp. by CFO Research Services.
So for those that just had their 401K's wiped out, it going to be a long uphill climb back to post-employment security.
Still working on putting together a post that meets EP's high standards.
My time demands are in overdrive these days - and I only allow for so many ultra cerebral thoughts in any given day. :)
Last week’s furor over the possibility of an eventual downgrade of America’s AAA rating demonstrates that only too clearly. On the night of May 20, Standard & Poor’s announced a downgrade watch for the United Kingdom and since the U.S. and U.K. are Siamese-connected, financially-levered twins, the implications were obvious: the U.S. might be next.
This is on the Atlanta Fed blog, where they are breaking down the entire CPI to look for skew which won't show up in the median numbers.
I'd say NDD you're getting a lot of validation on worrying about deflation from reading the more detailed analysis of some of the more "hard core" economics blogs.
RBC Bank President Gordon Nixon - Salary $11.73 Million
$100,000 - MISTAKE (FISHERMEN'S LOAN)
I'm a commercial fisherman fighting the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Bank) over a $100,000 loan mistake. I lost my home, fishing vessel and equipment. Help me fight this corporate bully by closing your RBC Bank account.
There was no monthly interest payment date or amount of interest payable per month on my loan agreement. Date of first installment payment (Principal + interest) is approximately 1 year from the signing of my contract.
Demand loan agreements signed by other fishermen around the same time disclosed monthly interest payment dates and interest amounts payable per month.The lending policy for fishermen did change at RBC from one payment (principal + interest) per year for fishing loans to principal paid yearly with interest paid monthly. This lending practice was in place when I approached RBC.
Only problem is the loans officer was a replacement who wasn't familiar with these type of loans. She never informed me verbally or in writing about this new criteria.
Phone or e-mail:
RBC President, Gordon Nixon, Toronto (416)974-6415
RBC Vice President, Sales, Anne Lockie, Toronto (416)974-6821
RBC President, Atlantic Provinces, Greg Grice (902)421-8112 mail to:greg.grice@rbc.com
RBC Manager, Cape Breton/Eastern Nova Scotia, Jerry Rankin (902)567-8600
RBC Vice President, Atlantic Provinces, Brian Conway (902)491-4302 mail to:brian.conway@rbc.com
RBC Vice President, Halifax Region, Tammy Holland (902)421-8112 mail to:tammy.holland@rbc.com
RBC Senior Manager, Media & Public Relations, Beja Rodeck (416)974-5506 mail to:beja.rodeck@rbc.com
RBC Ombudsman, Wendy Knight, Toronto, Ontario 1-800-769-2542 mail to:ombudsman@rbc.com
Ombudsman for Banking Services & Investments, JoAnne Olafson, Toronto, 1-888-451-4519 mail to:ombudsman@obsi.ca
http://www.pfraser.blogspot.com
http://www.corporatebully.ca
http://www.youtube.com/CORPORATEBULLY
http://www.p2pnet.net/story/17877
"Fighting the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Bank) one customer at a time"
but that said, getting these people to organize is like pulling teeth. I put together a techie community site, similar to EP @ www.noslaves.com and believe this or not, they are refusing to use it.
I'm actually not a "techie" by skill, but STEM, which is Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics. This area really does seriously need labor representation, organization and it's beyond unreal trying to get people to join up and do something.
but I.T. is related and truly the worst area under attack for labor arbitrage but so is STEM and this is all the way to PhD level skills, years of expertise, education, training...
it's just unbelievable considering the level of difficulty in these occupational areas.
BTW: anyone reading this in the above occupational categories, noslaves.com is there for people to use to try to create a community space.
You IT folks ought to think about the benefits of going for a guild.
With so much contract work, having an organization that could verify that workers possess the necessary skills for the job, and providing access to guild sponsored health insurance and other benefits limited to members could be attractive to companies.
The idea is that you have a limited membership, which own the guild in common, and elect a leadership, that companies are able to come to to find contract labor.
It's the model that has prevailed in building trades for the better part of the last century.
Collective organization of this type can do a great deal to ease the burden of periods of unemployment, and can provide individual workers greater leverage.
He has some references to where he got his numbers: N. Andrews.
NDD's Great Depression series part 2 here (there are 4 parts) he pulled up a lot of raw data and has references in these posts.
I know NDD hunted high and low for raw stats before 1947, so he might have additional resources. He even pulled some from an appendix in an old Milton Friedman text. I'll look around in my cabinets too.
I'm beginning to think we need some Economics department and some sort of Professor adopting us for this is a lot of work! Shame we can't get course credits here and btw, where are others trying to do the same thing?
I'm right now swimming through various papers on regulatory reform and here is what I have found so far:
1. they have not diagnosed the real causes, thus real solutions are lacking and also all of the Proposals are not really analyzed due to not understanding the dynamics of what happened, the interactions in full.
2. there is so much opinion out there by various people wanting to say something when we really need a much more thorough research mentality of the economics writers on this topic. It's a lot of boilerplate with gems in the mix, but it's adding to the massive "read through" requirement to figure out enough to write up something intelligent or have insight.
You can see in the other comments what kind of exercise for the reader questions I already have...
the biggest is how the unemployment rate amplifies a bad situation into a disastrous situation. I think we're about to hit a threshold. People can hang on for a time on savings (myself included) but they are assuredly running out (myself included). (BTW: should we put up a jobs board on here? @@&*)#&*)!!!)
I just found this.
Looks like I was earlier than most to realize that this report was BS.
The GAO just implied while there are some indicators they really cannot for certain assess the effectiveness of TARP.
See the this Instapopulist, GAO - June 2009 TARP Report.
So, I have to agree, now it's just being spun that the TARP and all of the bail outs saved the day, but where is the definitive proof?
Now Congress is talking about a $15k tax credit to buy a home (let's re-inflate the bubble and fraud shall we?) and Dean Baker called out the obvious manipulations and housing flips this could cause.
Goldman Sachs on pace for Record Bonuses
Nothing changed. The sad thing is that it is working class people who are hurt the most by these economic crises. I do believe we have established a "new" normal for economic growth. We can adjust to that but it is the financial oligarchy and financial conglomerates that can't afford to adjust so they, with the help of Fed and Summer/Geithner, will try to re-inflate the asset and credit bubbles. That is the only way that they can survive.
The financial oligarchy has essentially gotten off scott free. Nothing has changed. In fact many underlying factors that make financial conglomerates balance sheets still toxic remain. Unemployment exceeding "worse case" scenario on "stress test" is just an example that things may actually get worse. Fed and Treasury is hoping the zombie banks can earn their way out of this mess. That will extremely difficult thing to do with unemployment over 11%.
The time for dramatic action has long past. Now, we sit and wait and hope for the best. Just like the "Lost Decade".
I would say "let that be a lesson to anyone" who just takes a graph or a scalar (number) and extrapolates the end of the world from that.
Although one thing I am really wondering about is EIs and their divergence from the real economy. We know this is true for the middle class, plenty of data showing the slide in wages over 30 years, career stability and so on.
I mean if we do not look at one in particular lagging indicator, jobs, esp. right now, the stats are looking like bottle rockets giving off warnings (straight up!) ...well, there is no recovery on main street.
(but I think you mean in your post lagging indicators that are more about GDP and their implications thereof).
Did you see the further breakdown/debate of CPI coming from the Atlanta Fed blog? (bottom right and they are running a fantastic blog!)
In two ways:
1. As the recession gets worse, one sector I'm seeing get the customers is *local* businesses- those that depend on natural resources within easy farm trucking distance of a city, or that rely on lesser amounts of imported natural resources and local manufacturing. Farmer's markets, craft fairs, and the like are getting the business- and they don't need long distance shipping.
2. There was a recent story in the Oregonian that pointed out that many smaller towns in Eastern Oregon are seeing a new visual blight to their vistas: idled railcars, excess capacity in the system that is being parked just wherever the rail companies can find the space. Originally bought for a new boom in the late 1990s and early 2000s in rail shipping, which is much more environmentally friendly than truck shipping, the rail companies overpurchased rolling stock, and now that the trains aren't rolling, are having problems finding rare sidings to park cars on.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
During the last recession. My programmer's guild membership # is 1113.
Didn't help much then- might help some now.
-------------------------------------
Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.
There is no possible way smoot-hawley had anything to do with causing the Great Depression. It was not put into place until the early 1930's, long AFTER the economy/stock-market crashed. It is not possible for the cause to occur after the effect!!
Instead, the excesses of the 1920's (credit/banking/wall street excesses) are the primary cause of the Great Depression (sounds familiar - eh?).
The general idea that the US taxpayers are responsible for taking care of the world (incarceration, education, jobs, medicine, welfare, foreign aid, ...) is finally coming home to roost.
Huge deficits at the state and federal level and millions of CITIZENS unemployed and in poverty and you still have foolish politicians wanting to spend taxpayer money to save the world. This is the definition of insanity.
This morning on Reuters Employers cutting back 401(k) plans
So for those that just had their 401K's wiped out, it going to be a long uphill climb back to post-employment security.
Still working on putting together a post that meets EP's high standards.
My time demands are in overdrive these days - and I only allow for so many ultra cerebral thoughts in any given day. :)
link
One can only infer that Gross' actions are in line with this assumption and that those who have him on "speed dial" are aware.
Earlier there was a request that The Economic Populist be Available on Kindle, the Amazon book reading device.
the Economic Populist should be available as soon as Amazon processes it, about 06-22-09.
If there are any other delivery methods people want or know about, leave a request in a comment.
This is on the Atlanta Fed blog, where they are breaking down the entire CPI to look for skew which won't show up in the median numbers.
I'd say NDD you're getting a lot of validation on worrying about deflation from reading the more detailed analysis of some of the more "hard core" economics blogs.
Very interesting graph noted by the Atlanta Fed.
RBC Bank President Gordon Nixon - Salary $11.73 Million
$100,000 - MISTAKE (FISHERMEN'S LOAN)
I'm a commercial fisherman fighting the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Bank) over a $100,000 loan mistake. I lost my home, fishing vessel and equipment. Help me fight this corporate bully by closing your RBC Bank account.
There was no monthly interest payment date or amount of interest payable per month on my loan agreement. Date of first installment payment (Principal + interest) is approximately 1 year from the signing of my contract.
Demand loan agreements signed by other fishermen around the same time disclosed monthly interest payment dates and interest amounts payable per month.The lending policy for fishermen did change at RBC from one payment (principal + interest) per year for fishing loans to principal paid yearly with interest paid monthly. This lending practice was in place when I approached RBC.
Only problem is the loans officer was a replacement who wasn't familiar with these type of loans. She never informed me verbally or in writing about this new criteria.
Phone or e-mail:
RBC President, Gordon Nixon, Toronto (416)974-6415
RBC Vice President, Sales, Anne Lockie, Toronto (416)974-6821
RBC President, Atlantic Provinces, Greg Grice (902)421-8112 mail to:greg.grice@rbc.com
RBC Manager, Cape Breton/Eastern Nova Scotia, Jerry Rankin (902)567-8600
RBC Vice President, Atlantic Provinces, Brian Conway (902)491-4302 mail to:brian.conway@rbc.com
RBC Vice President, Halifax Region, Tammy Holland (902)421-8112 mail to:tammy.holland@rbc.com
RBC Senior Manager, Media & Public Relations, Beja Rodeck (416)974-5506 mail to:beja.rodeck@rbc.com
RBC Ombudsman, Wendy Knight, Toronto, Ontario 1-800-769-2542 mail to:ombudsman@rbc.com
Ombudsman for Banking Services & Investments, JoAnne Olafson, Toronto, 1-888-451-4519 mail to:ombudsman@obsi.ca
http://www.pfraser.blogspot.com
http://www.corporatebully.ca
http://www.youtube.com/CORPORATEBULLY
http://www.p2pnet.net/story/17877
"Fighting the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Bank) one customer at a time"
but that said, getting these people to organize is like pulling teeth. I put together a techie community site, similar to EP @ www.noslaves.com and believe this or not, they are refusing to use it.
I'm actually not a "techie" by skill, but STEM, which is Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics. This area really does seriously need labor representation, organization and it's beyond unreal trying to get people to join up and do something.
but I.T. is related and truly the worst area under attack for labor arbitrage but so is STEM and this is all the way to PhD level skills, years of expertise, education, training...
it's just unbelievable considering the level of difficulty in these occupational areas.
BTW: anyone reading this in the above occupational categories, noslaves.com is there for people to use to try to create a community space.
You IT folks ought to think about the benefits of going for a guild.
With so much contract work, having an organization that could verify that workers possess the necessary skills for the job, and providing access to guild sponsored health insurance and other benefits limited to members could be attractive to companies.
The idea is that you have a limited membership, which own the guild in common, and elect a leadership, that companies are able to come to to find contract labor.
It's the model that has prevailed in building trades for the better part of the last century.
Collective organization of this type can do a great deal to ease the burden of periods of unemployment, and can provide individual workers greater leverage.
He has some references to where he got his numbers:
N. Andrews.
NDD's Great Depression series part 2 here (there are 4 parts) he pulled up a lot of raw data and has references in these posts.
I know NDD hunted high and low for raw stats before 1947, so he might have additional resources. He even pulled some from an appendix in an old Milton Friedman text. I'll look around in my cabinets too.
I'm beginning to think we need some Economics department and some sort of Professor adopting us for this is a lot of work! Shame we can't get course credits here and btw, where are others trying to do the same thing?
I'm right now swimming through various papers on regulatory reform and here is what I have found so far:
1. they have not diagnosed the real causes, thus real solutions are lacking and also all of the Proposals are not really analyzed due to not understanding the dynamics of what happened, the interactions in full.
2. there is so much opinion out there by various people wanting to say something when we really need a much more thorough research mentality of the economics writers on this topic. It's a lot of boilerplate with gems in the mix, but it's adding to the massive "read through" requirement to figure out enough to write up something intelligent or have insight.
You can see in the other comments what kind of exercise for the reader questions I already have...
the biggest is how the unemployment rate amplifies a bad situation into a disastrous situation. I think we're about to hit a threshold. People can hang on for a time on savings (myself included) but they are assuredly running out (myself included). (BTW: should we put up a jobs board on here? @@&*)#&*)!!!)
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