......'You don't know jack' to all the Paretoians and Smithists, although he actually is right when you read all of him not just the parts Milton Friedman likes, who have been using mathematical tools and a model of Homo Economicus that any hard science grad student would find laughable...
Only ain't nobody laughin' right now.
Are they?
This is the money quote:
It is not ethical to say that if I make a dollar and you make a dime the trade is worthwhile since we both gain. This is, however, how all international trade is viewed.
Social scientists have shown in literally hundreds of studies done with sample populations from the Yanamano indians of the Amazon Basin to investment bankers in London's 'The City' that if your 'split' of the take in any activity between two parties goes below 30% you will not 'play the game'.....period.
Further from that area of research we also see that the role of trust in a society, how it's structured and actually works among the different relationships that exist in that society , plays a determinative role in the economics of that society. In a graph of trust relationships, near vs. far you find those countries which are the most economically successful clustered together in a region where only immediate family are allowed to impose on the family's economic activity. These happen to be Northern European generally. Countries where the 3rd cousin is allowed to show up at the door and move in if the central family can afford it don't rank highly in GDP etc. I can see I've not done justice to this argument but my central point is this.
The World Bank, WTO and all those who are busily securitising the world's economy are in the position of a man driving down a jungle road, at night, at high speed....
With a frikin' bag over his head and expecting to get to town on time and with money in his pocket.
Shorter form: No one is in charge and it really doesn't matter because those who would be in charge are utterly ignorant of the mechanism of the modern digital marketplace
I could use some real stats for comparing state economies. MI, OH for examples did invest heavily in advanced R&D but due to global labor arbitrage are still hurting, in fact now leading the nation in foreclosures, bankruptcies, unemployment, so while not reinvesting in a state is certainly true, these days I'm thinking it might even more be luck of the draw in terms of which industries a state is home to.
Last weekend was an economic disaster--especially for Bear, Stearns. Somehow I get the feeling that JPM won this with a no bid contract--and that Mr Cayne had a shotgun to his head. The whole thing is too fishy--and too profitable for JPM.
Thanks for this. I had expected the household debt figures to contract significantly in Q4 2007. Interesting that they didn't. At least as of the end of last year, households apparently were NOT reining in spending yet, just re-allocating it to food and gas and away from discretionary spending.
Judd Gregg is a corporate sell-out. He should just be a lobbyist for the Chamber of Commerce or Microsoft; instead of impersonating as a representative of American citizen.
Truly, there is a great desire among households to be stable economically on a single income. Many households occupied by even as low as one individual find it necessary to supplement their full-time 40 hour salary with a part-time paying position. This is required to simply make ends meet.
Also, once you register on this blog, then the CAPTCHA goes away and all of the features are enabled.
Many community blogs don't allow anonymous (not logged in) comments at all because it's a major security issue, so this is my compromise.
Believe me spam bots are notorious and why the CAPTCHA is so tough. They have broken most.
As far as the economy, watching today's rally I was thinking, this is so out of reality from all of the real numbers, so there does appear to be this separate Wizard of Oz economy and us mere mortals are not allowed behind the curtain. I highly recommend Winter Watch blog who writes about this daily.
I'm an amateur who manages his own IRA. When I saw the coming crisis, my strategy was kind of like a bracket. I bought gold, silver and Euros as a hedge against a hyperinflationary collapse of the greenback and I bought muni-bonds as a hedge against a depression style deflationary collapse in asset value.
My understanding was that in a time of extremely low interest rates and non-existent yields from stocks, the demand for munis would sky-rocket. All other things being equal, a muni that currently pays a 4% yield would appreciate in value if interest rates were around 1%; this is because there would be increased demand for the higher yield of the munis. So, the price of munis would have to rise, until their effective yield had dropped to the point that demand for them had equilized.
So, why does the Bond Market fear deflation (besides the collateral damage it will do to the economy)?
Watching what seemingly is becoming fictitious capital (Wall Street), I'm wondering when the chickens will come home to roost due to the hollowing out of the America in terms of production, manufacturing.
Reading this makes me suspect the US will have to go all the way to 3rd world status before corporations start shopping for yet another cheap labor market across the globe and then realize it is now the United States.
if wages were high enough, one would be able to adequately maintain their household with a single job. But the cost of housing, food and heating oil has increased at a higher rate than wages. Because the American worker's wage does not go far enough to maintain their household, it has become a necessity for dual income earnings. This causes the need for secondary jobs.
That's exactly what I'm wondering about, how are they dealing with that bad debt and is it being dumped onto the taxpayer, through some ponzi scheme? I mean using bad debt against bad debt is what I've read (mortgage securities against fed funds) so I'm confused. If you find out details I hope you post about it.
I'm watching DOW futures they are already at -240 but last time this was building up the Fed did an emergency surprise rate cut to circumvent a major market correction.
So, as your "scenario 3" I'm wondering if we're looking at the big one and there are no more tricks.
I read it was 1% of the value just 16 days ago. God lord help anyone if they had all of it in Bear Sterns.
This is a real economic indicator because our GDP is 70% of people shopping.
I find that so sad and seemingly our government just looks at people as consumers instead of citizens and producers.
......'You don't know jack' to all the Paretoians and Smithists, although he actually is right when you read all of him not just the parts Milton Friedman likes, who have been using mathematical tools and a model of Homo Economicus that any hard science grad student would find laughable...
Only ain't nobody laughin' right now.
Are they?
This is the money quote:
Social scientists have shown in literally hundreds of studies done with sample populations from the Yanamano indians of the Amazon Basin to investment bankers in London's 'The City' that if your 'split' of the take in any activity between two parties goes below 30% you will not 'play the game'.....period.
Further from that area of research we also see that the role of trust in a society, how it's structured and actually works among the different relationships that exist in that society , plays a determinative role in the economics of that society. In a graph of trust relationships, near vs. far you find those countries which are the most economically successful clustered together in a region where only immediate family are allowed to impose on the family's economic activity. These happen to be Northern European generally. Countries where the 3rd cousin is allowed to show up at the door and move in if the central family can afford it don't rank highly in GDP etc. I can see I've not done justice to this argument but my central point is this.
The World Bank, WTO and all those who are busily securitising the world's economy are in the position of a man driving down a jungle road, at night, at high speed....
With a frikin' bag over his head and expecting to get to town on time and with money in his pocket.
Shorter form: No one is in charge and it really doesn't matter because those who would be in charge are utterly ignorant of the mechanism of the modern digital marketplace
I could use some real stats for comparing state economies. MI, OH for examples did invest heavily in advanced R&D but due to global labor arbitrage are still hurting, in fact now leading the nation in foreclosures, bankruptcies, unemployment, so while not reinvesting in a state is certainly true, these days I'm thinking it might even more be luck of the draw in terms of which industries a state is home to.
Last weekend was an economic disaster--especially for Bear, Stearns. Somehow I get the feeling that JPM won this with a no bid contract--and that Mr Cayne had a shotgun to his head. The whole thing is too fishy--and too profitable for JPM.
Thanks for this. I had expected the household debt figures to contract significantly in Q4 2007. Interesting that they didn't. At least as of the end of last year, households apparently were NOT reining in spending yet, just re-allocating it to food and gas and away from discretionary spending.
Judd Gregg is a corporate sell-out. He should just be a lobbyist for the Chamber of Commerce or Microsoft; instead of impersonating as a representative of American citizen.
Truly, there is a great desire among households to be stable economically on a single income. Many households occupied by even as low as one individual find it necessary to supplement their full-time 40 hour salary with a part-time paying position. This is required to simply make ends meet.
His Nobel prize was for monetary policy but also differentiating between business cycles and crisis cycles.
Here are the debt service figures from the Fed; they’ve just been updated.
.....daddy of 'Disaster Capitalism' that evil lil' elf Mr. 'Chicago School' Friedman?
Him and pals Cheney and Dr. Kissinger helped 'figure out' Chile and Argentina. Funny how such incompetents came to be regarded as genius's.
Not hah...hah funny.
The genius was in turning normal humans metrics upside down.
Destroying a country's economy turned out to be an enormously profitable undertaking.
And so it continues.
Do you have a link?
Also, once you register on this blog, then the CAPTCHA goes away and all of the features are enabled.
Many community blogs don't allow anonymous (not logged in) comments at all because it's a major security issue, so this is my compromise.
Believe me spam bots are notorious and why the CAPTCHA is so tough. They have broken most.
As far as the economy, watching today's rally I was thinking, this is so out of reality from all of the real numbers, so there does appear to be this separate Wizard of Oz economy and us mere mortals are not allowed behind the curtain. I highly recommend Winter Watch blog who writes about this daily.
I'm an amateur who manages his own IRA. When I saw the coming crisis, my strategy was kind of like a bracket. I bought gold, silver and Euros as a hedge against a hyperinflationary collapse of the greenback and I bought muni-bonds as a hedge against a depression style deflationary collapse in asset value.
My understanding was that in a time of extremely low interest rates and non-existent yields from stocks, the demand for munis would sky-rocket. All other things being equal, a muni that currently pays a 4% yield would appreciate in value if interest rates were around 1%; this is because there would be increased demand for the higher yield of the munis. So, the price of munis would have to rise, until their effective yield had dropped to the point that demand for them had equilized.
So, why does the Bond Market fear deflation (besides the collateral damage it will do to the economy)?
I've put an excerpt from this on my blog. This is exactly what Edwards kept trying to tell us, so of course the media had to marginalize him....
BTW, that capcha is VERY difficult to figure out and confusing - probably will discourage many commenters. Took me three tries.
New benchmark 2.25%
plus a 3/4 pt cut on the discount rate.
I don't see how this helps anything beyond this rigged paper economy game. But bad debt, worthless assets are worthless assets.
Excerpts from Iraq for Sale film that was banned from being shown in Congress.
Senator Bryon Dorgan on March 11, 2008 on the Senate Appropriations Committee
Democracy Now interview with economist Joseph Stiglitz on the how the Iraq war has hurt the US economy.
Watching what seemingly is becoming fictitious capital (Wall Street), I'm wondering when the chickens will come home to roost due to the hollowing out of the America in terms of production, manufacturing.
Reading this makes me suspect the US will have to go all the way to 3rd world status before corporations start shopping for yet another cheap labor market across the globe and then realize it is now the United States.
These statistics are:
ALARMING
You are assuming that women or families somehow do not want dual careers and this is quite a sexist assumption.
Moreover, secondary job implies somehow someone doesn't have their own, equal career to the other.
There is an assumption by you that implies magically someone would prefer to stay home, have no career in a family and that is not the case.
if wages were high enough, one would be able to adequately maintain their household with a single job. But the cost of housing, food and heating oil has increased at a higher rate than wages. Because the American worker's wage does not go far enough to maintain their household, it has become a necessity for dual income earnings. This causes the need for secondary jobs.
That's exactly what I'm wondering about, how are they dealing with that bad debt and is it being dumped onto the taxpayer, through some ponzi scheme? I mean using bad debt against bad debt is what I've read (mortgage securities against fed funds) so I'm confused. If you find out details I hope you post about it.
I'm watching DOW futures they are already at -240 but last time this was building up the Fed did an emergency surprise rate cut to circumvent a major market correction.
So, as your "scenario 3" I'm wondering if we're looking at the big one and there are no more tricks.
I read it was 1% of the value just 16 days ago. God lord help anyone if they had all of it in Bear Sterns.
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