From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content).  Brief excerpt:

Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a contributing factor. But uncertainty over next year could be pulling sales into December, as some consumers could be expecting prices to rise depending on the extent of tariff increases or the possibility that EV credits will be eliminated.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for December (Red).

On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 16.7 million SAAR, would be up 1.2% from last month, and up 4.9% from a year ago.

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).  I've linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a brief excerpt and a few comments.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I think it helps to outline what I think will happen - and understand - and change my mind, when the outlook is wrong.  As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020.
Here were my questions for 2024 (posted in December 2023).  The analysis for the housing related questions were posted in the newsletter, and the other questions on this blog.
10) Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024?

"The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2024. However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels."

That was correct.

Here is a graph from Altos Research showing active single-family inventory through December 16, 2023.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, and up 26% compared to the same week last year.
However, inventory is still below pre-pandemic normal levels. 
9) Question #9 for 2024: What will happen with house prices in 2024?

"I don’t expect inventory to reach 2019 levels but based on the recent increase in inventory maybe more than half the gap between 2019 and 2023 levels will close in 2024. If existing home sales remain sluggish, we could see months-of-supply back to 2017 - 2019 levels.

That would likely put price increases in the 3% to 4% range in 2024. I don’t expect either a crash in prices or a surge in prices. "

That was correct.

As of September, the National Case-Shiller index SA was up 3.9% year-over-year. (Case-Shiller for October will be released December 31st).

The FHFA index was up 4.3% YoY in October, and the Freddie Mac index was up 3.7%. 
 The ICE HPI was up 3.0% in November.
And no crash or surge in house prices in 2024.  

8) Question #8 for 2024: How much will Residential investment change in 2024? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2024?

"My guess is multi-family starts will decline further in 2024, likely down 25% or so year-over-year. Single family starts will likely be mostly unchanged year-over-year, putting total starts down close to 10%. I expect New Home sales to be up around 5% YoY."

This was close.
This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

As of November, single family starts were up 7.2% year-to-date (YTD) compared to the same period in 2023.  Single family starts were a little stronger than expected.
Multi-family starts were down 28.9% YTD (pretty close!).
Total starts were down 4.3% YTD.


The next graph shows new home sales as of October (November sales will be released next week).

New home sales were up 2.1% YTD in October. 
Note that sales in October were impacted by the hurricanes, and I expect some bounce back in November.
That will likely put YTD sales even closer to my guess.

7) Question #7 for 2024: How much will wages increase in 2024?

"Clearly wage growth is slowing and I expect to see some further decreases in both the Average hourly earnings from the CES, and in the Atlanta Fed Wage Tracker. My sense is nominal wages will increase close to 3.5% YoY in 2024 according to the CES. "

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  
There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Excluding the pandemic spike, wage growth peaked at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and declined to 3.6% in July 2024.  However, wages have ticked up to 4.0% YoY in November.
6) Question #6 for 2024: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2024?

"My guess is there will be around 5 rate cuts in 2024 ... I also expect the FOMC to start discussing slowing balance sheet runoff late in the year."

There were 4 rate cuts in 2024 with the Fed Funds rate target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent in December 2024. There has also been some discussion of slowing balance sheet runoff.

5) Question #5 for 2024: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2024?

"My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2024 (from the current 3.2%), and I think core PCE inflation will be close to the Fed's target by Q4 2024."

According to the November Personal Income and Outlays report released this morning, the November PCE price index increased 2.4 percent year-over-year, and the November PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent year-over-year. Inflation declined, but not as much as expected.

4) Question #4 for 2024: What will the participation rate be in December 2024?

"There are probably a few more people that will return to the workforce in 2024, pushing up the participation rate. However, demographics will be pushing the rate down. So, my guess is the participation rate will decline slightly in 2024 to around 62.3%"

My guess was close.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 62.5% in November from 62.6% in October.
This is down from the post pandemic peak of 62.8%.
Demographics (retiring baby boomers) is pushing down the rate.
3) Question #3 for 2024: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2024?

"Depending on the estimate for the participation rate and job growth (next question), my guess is the unemployment rate will remain in the mid-to-high 3% range in December 2024. (Lower than the FOMC forecast of 4.0% to 4.2%)."

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November (The FOMC projections beat me on this one).

2) Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? Or will the economy lose jobs?

"So, my forecast is for gains of around 1.0 million to 1.5 million jobs in 2024. This would be another solid year for employment gains given current demographics."

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Job growth slowed from 3.0 million in 2023 but was still strong in 2024.

Through November the economy has added 1.98 million jobs in 2024, above my guess.

1) Question #1 for 2024: How much will the economy grow in 2024? Will there be a recession in 2024?

"The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2% to 1.7% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024. ... My sense is growth will be sluggish in 2024, and the economy will avoid recession. ...

So, my guess is that real GDP growth will be positive in the 1% to 2% range in 2024.

I was correct about no recession, but growth will likely be closer to 2.5% or so in 2024.

For the most part, the economy evolved as expected in 2024. Economic (GDP) and employment growth outperformed my guesses.

From Goldman:

Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.1 percent on December 20, down from 3.2 percent on December 18. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the National Association of Realtors, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from 3.3 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively, to 3.2 percent and 1.2 percent. [Dec 20th estimate]

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024.

CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Housing (PCE) was up 4.8% YoY in November, down from 5.0% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year.
The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are slightly below the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. Note: There appears to be some residual seasonality distorting PCE prices in Q1, especially in January.

3-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 2.1%
Core PCE Prices: 2.5%
Core minus Housing: 2.3%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November:

Personal income increased $71.1 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $61.1 billion (0.3 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $81.3 billion (0.4 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in November and real PCE increased 0.3 percent; goods increased 0.7 percent and services increased 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

The November PCE price index increased 2.4 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.3 percent YoY in October, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.8 percent in October, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2024 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and PCE were below expectations.
Inflation was below expectations.
Using the two-month method to estimate Q4 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 3.3% annual rate in Q4 2024. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 3.8%).  This suggests solid PCE growth in Q4.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to increase 0.2%, and the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.5% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.9% YoY.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).

• Also at 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2024

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For November, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 26.2% YoY, but still down 21.5% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 23.4% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Dec. 14, 2024

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 23.4% above year-ago levels

For the 58th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. However, this week’s growth was the slowest since March 2024. As the mortgage rates remain close to 7%, the combination of sluggish listing activity and muted buyer demand has led to a slowdown in inventory growth. This increase should help lead to a more balanced housing market heading into 2025.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 7.9%

The past two weeks have brought the highest combined two-week increase in new listings since April, reflecting a rising desire of existing home sellers to sell their home and, in many cases, also buy a new one. This late-season increase could lead to a noticeable but modest increase in housing market activity throughout the remainder of the year.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 58th consecutive week.  
New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades

The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.

As the nation’s population surpasses 340 million, this is the fastest annual population growth the nation has seen since 2001 — a notable increase from the record low growth rate of 0.2% in 2021. The growth was primarily driven by rising net international migration.
...
Natural increase also contributed to the population growth, as births outnumbered deaths by nearly 519,000 between 2023 and 2024. This marks an increase from the historic low in 2021 when natural increase was just over 146,000, but it was still well below the highs in prior decades.

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

Excerpt:

The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate).
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales increased 6.1% year-over-year compared to November 2023.
...
On an NSA basis, sales are down 1.5% year-to-date compared to 2023.

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Elevated 4.8% in November; Post Strongest Year-Over-Year Increase Since June 2021

Existing-home sales grew in November, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Sales advanced in three major U.S. regions and remained steady in the West. Year-over-year, sales climbed in all four regions.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – improved 4.8% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 million in November. Year-over-year, sales bounced 6.1% (up from 3.91 million in November 2023).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.33 million units, down 2.9% from October but up 17.7% from one year ago (1.13 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.2 months in October but up from 3.5 months in November 2023.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in November (4.15 million SAAR) were up 4.8% from the previous month and were 6.1% above the November 2023 sales rate.  This was the second year-over-year increase since July 2021.  Last month was the first.
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 1.33 million in November from 1.37 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 17.7% year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2023.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 3.8 months in November from 4.2 months the previous month.

The sales rate was above the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits (Revised Estimate), and GDP by Industry, Third Quarter 2024

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "third" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up.
emphasis added

Here is a Comparison of Third and Second Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 3.5% to 3.7%. Residential investment was revised up from -5.0% to -4.3%.

The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 220,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 224,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 225,500.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 232 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (Third estimate). The consensus is for real GDP at 2.8% annualized, unchanged from the second estimate of 2.8%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -6.0.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million in October. Last year, the NAR reported sales in November 2023 at 3.91 million SAAR. This will be the second year-over-year gain since July 2021 (last month was the first).

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million SAAR for November.
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Note the regional differences with more months-of-supply in the South, especially in Florida and Texas (although November statistics in Florida were likely still impacted by Hurricane Milton).
...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although there are some "base effects" that might push PCE inflation up in Q4).
So, the projections for GDP were revised up for 2024, the unemployment rate revised down for 2024, and inflation revised up for the next couple of years.

In September, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was around 3.375% at the end of 2025 (3.1%–3.6%) and the long run range was 2.5% to 3.5%.  The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 3.875% at the end of 2025 (3.6%-4.1%) and the long run range is 2.8% to 3.6%.  
The BEA's second estimate for Q3 GDP showed real growth at 2.8% annualized, following 3.0% annualized real growth in Q2, and 1.6% in Q1.  Current estimates for Q4 GDP are around 2.6%.  That put real growth in 2024, Q4 over Q4, at 2.5% - well above the top end of the September FOMC projections.  
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 Projection Date2024202520262027 Dec 20242.4 to 2.51.8 to 2.21.9 to 2.11.8 to 2.0 Sept 20241.9 to 2.11.8 to 2.21.9 to 2.31.8 to 2.1 1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.2% in November (and 4.1% in October).  This is below the low end of the September projections for Q4.
Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 Projection Date2024202520262027 Dec 20244.24.2 to 4.54.1 to 4.44.0 to 4.4Sept 20244.3 to 4.44.2 to 4.54.0 to 4.44.0 to 4.4 2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of October 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY). This is in the middle of the September projection range.
Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 Projection Date2024202520262027 Dec 20242.4 to 2.52.3 to 2.62.0-2.22.0Sept 20242.2 to 2.42.1 to 2.22.02.0
PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in October. This was slightly above the range of FOMC projections for Q4.
Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 Projection Date2024202520262027 Dec 20242.8 to 2.92.5 to 2.72.0-2.32.0 Sept 20242.6 to 2.72.1 to 2.32.02.0

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

FOMC Statement:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.
emphasis added

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: ABI November 2024: Architecture firm billings remain flat

Despite the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score dipping slightly below 50 for the month, it remains close enough to that threshold to indicate that the share of firms that reported declining billings was essentially the same as the share that reported increasing billings. Although it would be better to see the majority of firms reporting growth, the fact that billings have returned to flat after declining for nearly two full years is an encouraging sign that conditions are improving for more firms. Inquiries into new work continued to grow steadily, and while the value of newly signed design contracts declined for the eighth consecutive month, the pace of that decline slowed this month.

Business conditions continued to improve in the West and South regions of the country in November, where firm billings increased for the second consecutive month. Most notable was the strength of billings growth in the West, where the score was the highest it has been since mid-2022. Although billings continued to decline at firms located in the Northeast and Midwest, the pace of the decline slowed in both regions this month. There was significant improvement in business conditions at firms with a multifamily residential specialization in November as well, where they reported their first increase in billings since August 2022, at the end of the post-pandemic boom. In addition, billings increased for the second consecutive month at firms with an institutional specialization. While billings continued to decline at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization, the pace of the decline slowed significantly.
...
The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added

• Northeast (46.9); Midwest (48.1); South (50.0); West (54.3)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (49.4); institutional (50.6); multifamily residential (50.8)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 49.7 in November, down from 50.3 in October.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 24 of the last 26 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment into 2025.
This was first positive score for multi-family since August 2022.  This suggests we will see further weakness in multi-family starts, but a possible pickup in the 2nd half of 2025.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November

A brief excerpt:

Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up slightly, combined.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

Total starts were down 14.6% in November compared to November 2023. The YoY decrease in November total starts was a combination of further weakness in multi-family starts and a difficult comparison to starts in November 2023.

Single family starts have been up year-over-year in 13 of the last 17 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 2 of last 18 months. Year-to-date (YTD), total starts are down 4.3% compared to the same period in 2023. Single family starts are up 7.2% YTD, and multi-family down 30.1% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,289,000. This is 1.8 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,312,000 and is 14.6 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,510,000. Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 1,011,000; this is 6.4 percent above the revised October figure of 950,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 264,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,505,000. This is 6.1 percent above the revised October rate of 1,419,000, but is 0.2 percent below the November 2023 rate of 1,508,000. Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 972,000; this is 0.1 percent above the revised October figure of 971,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in November.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in November.   Multi-family starts were down 27.6% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) increased in November and were down 10.2% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in November were below expectations, however, starts in September and October were revised up, combined.

I'll have more later …

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 13, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 41 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 6 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased last week, leading to overall mortgage application activity decreasing for the first time in five weeks, said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional and VA purchase applications drove this week’s increase in purchase activity on a weekly and annual basis. Buyers remained active in the purchase market, helped by gradually improving inventory conditions and a more positive outlook on the economy and job market. Refinance applications declined last week, largely driven by VA refinances that were down 17 percent after two weeks of gains.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.75 percent from 6.67 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 6% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is up about 25% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September, but the index declined as rates moved back up.