Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.9% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent dipped by 0.8% in October, and now stands at $1,381. This was the third consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines to close out the year.

Realtor.com: 26th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

September 2025 marks the 26th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $36, or -2.1%, year over year.

There is much more in the article.

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.7% in October, down from 49.1% in September. The employment index was at 46.0%, up from 45.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.4%, up from 48.9%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.7% October 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 61.9 percent reported in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, up 1.7 percentage points compared to the 46.2 percent recorded in September. The Employment Index registered 46 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from September’s figure of 45.3 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 16.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 17.9%), and down 6.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.5%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of October 31st, inventory was at 857 thousand (7-day average), compared to 868 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 2, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.

• At 2:00 PM, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 11 and DOW futures are up 58 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $60.98 per barrel and Brent at $64.77 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $70, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 13% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.00 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.06 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.06 year-over-year.

Here is another update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On October 31, 2025, LBR was at $539.50 per 1,000 board feet, down 3% from a year ago.
Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

• Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.