'Deadly Force' An Option: New Docs Show FBI Agents Were Prepared For Secret Service Resistance At Mar-a-Lago

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

FBI agents executing a search warrant at former President Donald Trump’s home in 2022 prepared for the possibility U.S. Secret Service agents resisted the agents, according to newly unsealed court documents.

An operations plan for the raid of Mar-a-Lago in southern Florida stated that should President Trump arrive at Mar-a-Lago during the period when agents were there, FBI agents would be prepared to “engage with” him and U.S. Secret Service (USSS) agents who protect him.

If the Secret Service agents “provide resistance or interfere with FBI timeline or accesses,” then FBI officials would contact certain individuals—their names and positions were redacted—the documents stated.

The documents also stated that if Mar-a-Lago employees refused to provide a list of occupied guest rooms, FBI agents would “knock on each guest room door to determine occupation status.” Agents would request a map, list of rooms, and a skeleton key for all rooms, and were preparing to bring lock-picking equipment with them.

The documents, produced to President Trump through discovery in the criminal case against him, were placed on the docket on May 21.

President Trump’s lawyers attached the documents as exhibits to a motion asking to suppress evidence seized by agents, arguing the raid was unconstitutional.

The warrant was cleared by a U.S. magistrate judge after agents said there was probable cause to believe sensitive materials were being kept at unauthorized places at the resort. Officials said the raid would likely uncover evidence of obstruction of justice.

Agents arrived at Mar-a-Lago at 8:59 a.m. on Aug. 8, 2022, and initiated the search at 10:33 a.m.. A summary of what transpired stated that FBI leaders coordinated with local Secret Service leaders and that Secret Service agents “facilitated entry onto the premises, provided escort and access to various locations within, and posted USSS personnel in locations where the FBI team conducted searches.”

In addition to 25 FBI employees from the bureau’s Miami office, the group of DOJ personnel included five officials from Washington and two DOJ lawyers.

The group took numerous photographs, including pictures in the bedroom of former First Lady Melania Trump and a “child’s bedroom suite,” according to picture logs that were released on Tuesday.

President Trump’s lawyers said in the motion that the search was “roving and highly inappropriate,” citing how it covered a gym, a kitchen, and the bedrooms where the pictures were taken. They said the warrant was too broad and authorized agents to seize virtually any document from Mar-a-Lago.

Government officials have acknowledged they improperly seized passports and some other materials.

Agents remained on the scene until 6:39 p.m. They flew the seized evidence to Washington the following day.

President Trump after the execution of the warrant was charged with mishandling of national defense information, concealing documents, and making false statements.

Deadly Force an Option

The documents included a statement on the use of deadly force, which quoted government policy in stating that “law enforcement officers of the Department of Justice (DOJ) may use deadly force only when necessary, that is, when the officer has a reasonable belief that the subject of such force poses an imminent danger of death or serious physical injury to the officer or to another person.”

Biden ordered the hit on Trump at Mar-a-Lago. pic.twitter.com/amyUysoNKU

— Rep. Paul Gosar, DDS (@RepGosar) May 21, 2024

The FBI also brought a medic and paramedic along on the raid, according to the documents, and listed the nearest trauma center in case anyone was injured during the execution of the warrant.

Agents were equipped with standard issue weapons, ammunition, handcuffs, and badges, and brought medium and large bolt cutters.

There was no basis for the FBI to bring guns into Mar-a-Lago, according to President Trump’s lawyers.

“There were no threats and no risk to agents’ safety arising from their allegations relating to possession of documents at a premises already guarded by the Secret Service,” the lawyers said.

The lawyers also argued that an FBI agent omitted relevant information from the affidavit submitted to the judge as part of the request to authorize the warrant.

The agent, for instance, “failed to disclose that presidents are not required to obtain clearances and that sensitive briefings including classified information had been provided to President Trump at Mar-a-Lago and other residences before and during his presidency,” the lawyers said.

In a DOJ filing in response to the motion, government attorneys countered the arguments.

“Regardless of Trump’s authority during his presidency, he lacked authority to possess classified documents at Mar-a-Lago after it ended and he became a private citizen. Trump’s authority to access or possess classified documents during his presidency was both obvious and immaterial to the probable cause determination regarding the retention of the documents after his presidency,” they wrote in part.

The attorneys also said that while some FBI officials did suggest seeking the consent of former President Trump to search Mar-a-Lago before seeking a warrant, his “prior obfuscation and deception up to that point” meant there was “ample reason to avoid seeking Trump’s consent, which would simply invite more deception.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 17:00

WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Unexpected Crude Build

Oil (and gasoline) prices were lower today (WTI sliding back near two-month lows) as the Biden administration said Tuesday it is releasing 1 million barrels of gasoline from a Northeast reserve established after Superstorm Sandy in a bid to lower prices at the pump this summer.

However, the main driver for oil prices right now is "worry about the economy, and the potential that [interest] rates will remain elevated," Michael Lynch, president at Strategic Energy & Economic Research (SEER), told MarketWatch.

Additionally, the market appears to have quickly shrugged off the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.

Will a third weekly crude draw in a row be enough to re-energize prices ahead of OPEC+'s meetings, where members will "almost certainly roll over" its current quotas when it meets on June 1, "keeping a floor on prices for now," according to SEER's Lynch.

API

• Crude +2.49mm (-3.1mm exp)

• Cushing +1.77mm

• Gasoline +2.09mm

• Distillates -320k

Crude and Gasoline stock piles grew last week (more than expected) along with inventories at the Cushing hub while Distillates saw a small draw...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $78.60 ahead of the API print and slipped lower after...

Finally, we note that pump prices are at their second most expensive in a decade ahead of the Memorial Day holiday...

Source: Bloomberg

“As an analyst, this reserve never really made a whole lot of sense to have,'' De Haan said in an Associated Press interview. The reserve is very small and must be frequently rotated, “because gasoline has a shelf life,'' De Haan said.

“That's why there’s really no nation that has an emergency stockpile of gasoline'' other than the U.S.

Patrick De Haan, an analyst for GasBuddy, said sale of the Northeast reserve would have little impact on gasoline prices nationally, although there “may be a slight downward pressure on prices” in the Northeast.

The million-barrel reserve only amounts to about 2.7 hours of total U.S. gasoline consumption, he said.

Finally, Bloomberg notes that for several weeks, oil traders have been confident that OPEC+ will choose to extend supply curbs when the group gathers next month. The latest trend in crude time-spreads probably removes any trace of a doubt.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 16:40

Jack Smith's Appointment Violated The Constitution, Some Legal Experts Argue

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Days before Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed special counsel Jack Smith to investigate former President Donald Trump, experts who had been following the Justice Department investigations questioned its necessity. Mr. Smith was appointed on Nov. 18, 2022.

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock, Getty Images)

Would the appointment of an “independent” lead prosecutor undermine the Justice Department’s own appearance of independence from politics? Would the newly appointed prosecutor slow the case down?

Those concerns have now materialized, though not for the predicted reasons.

On June 22, U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon will hear arguments on a motion to dismiss the classified documents case against President Trump based on the unlawful appointment of the special counsel. Experts who advanced this legal theory have told The Epoch Times they plan to participate as amici curiae, or friends of the court.

What Are Special Counsels For?

Attorneys general have been hiring special counsels since before the Justice Department was established in 1870, via a statute that specifically set guardrails on the hiring and payment of outside attorneys as special counsel.

A century later, Congress decided, with the Watergate scandal, there was a need for a truly independent prosecutor to investigate senior executive branch personnel, including the president. In 1978 Congress passed an ethics bill that created the Office of Independent Counsel.

While controversial, the law was reformed and reauthorized more than once before Congress let it expire in 1999.

Just before it expired, the Justice Department under Attorney General Janet Reno created its own set of regulations for appointing a special counsel.

The department determined that attorneys general may appoint a special counsel if a case “would present a conflict of interest for the Department or other extraordinary circumstances,” instructing the attorney general to then select someone from “outside the United States Government.”

These past few years, the Justice Department has found plenty of “extraordinary circumstances.”

In 2017, acting Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appointed special counsel Robert Mueller to investigate Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

In 2020, Attorney General William Barr appointed special counsel John Durham to investigate whether federal personnel violated the law in investigating the 2016 presidential.

In 2022, Mr. Smith was appointed to investigate matters related to President Trump.

In 2023, special counsel Robert Hur was appointed to investigate the possible unauthorized removal of classified records at properties of President Joe Biden, and special counsel David Weiss was appointed to take on the ongoing investigation into first son Hunter Biden.

Media tents and television satellite trucks are set up outside the E. Barrett Prettyman U.S. District Courthouse in Washington on July 27, 2023. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images) Experts Weigh In

When President Trump appealed his presidential immunity defense to the Supreme Court, former U.S. Attorney General Edwin Meese III was quick to submit an amicus brief arguing that before the case could proceed, the high court should settle the matter of whether a private citizen can lawfully be given the authority to impanel a grand jury, investigate, and prosecute a former president.

Mr. Meese, arguing together with constitutional law scholars and professors Steven Calabresi and Gary Lawson, holds the position that Mr. Garland had no authority to grant Mr. Smith such “extraordinary criminal law enforcement power,” as attorneys general lost that power in 1999.

Mr. Meese, incidentally, was himself investigated by an independent counsel when the law was still in effect. The professors are experts in this niche matter, and in 2019 authored a paper arguing that the appointment of special counsel Robert Mueller was unlawful for the same reasons.

The Appointments Clause of the Constitution states that the president has the authority to appoint a number of officers that courts have come to deem “principal” or “superior” officers, whose appointments have to be established by Congress through law, and have their appointments confirmed by the Senate. It also states that Congress can, through law, allow department heads to appoint “inferior” officers.

The amici argue Mr. Smith wields the power of a “principal or superior officer” without being appointed through the lawful process as required under the Appointments Clause.

The correct avenue would have been to appoint a currently serving U.S. Attorney as special counsel, or to appoint an outside special counsel that serves under a U.S. Attorney, Mr. Meese, Mr. Calabresi, and Mr. Lawson argue.

“Smith is the classic ‘emperor with no clothes,’” their Supreme Court brief reads.

Attorneys for President Trump in a second case picked up on this argument, filing a motion in the Southern District of Florida. They argued that Mr. Smith’s appointment violated the Appointments Clause, and there is no permanent funding allocated to a special counsel office, therefore the indictment should be dismissed.

Mr. Meese, Mr. Calabresi, and Mr. Lawson filed another amicus brief in support of the motion in this case, as did other experts.

Former Attorney General Edwin Meese (R) delivers remarks after being awarded the National Medal of Freedom by President Donald Trump during a ceremony with his's wife Ursula Herrick and other family members in the Oval Office at the White House on Oct. 8, 2019. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

In a separate amicus brief, professor Seth Barrett Tillman argued that not only is Mr. Smith not a principal or inferior officer, but he is right now really an “employee” of the Justice Department.

Mr. Tillman has written extensively on related issues, and argued that Supreme Court precedent shows that to be an officer of the United States requires that the position has permanency.

In a 1867 case, United States v. Hartwell, the Supreme Court defined the difference between a contract employee and officer. Justice Noah Swayne wrote that an office “embraces the ideas of tenure, duration, emolument, and duties.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 16:20

Stocks Inch Higher As Fearless Vol-Sellers Continue To Push Ahead Of NVDA/FOMC Mins

It's quiet... too quiet...

Small Caps lagged on the day but the rest of the majors struggled to gain any momentum as long gamma and low vol compressed the ranges. Some early hawkish (though nothing new) remarks from Fed's Waller ("...in the absence of a significant weakening in the labor market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would be comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy...") sparked a little risk-off but as soon as cash markets opened, BTFDers resumed their game - but could not push ahead of unch.

A late lift flattered an otherwise 'meh' day...

As Goldman's Chris Hussey notes, a peak under the surface of the S&P 500 reveals a somewhat defensive tilt with Pharma, Staples and Utilities outperforming, and Consumer Discretionary, Semis, Transport and Builders lagging the index. Consumer discretionary is particularly underperforming, being dragged down by negative reactions to earnings from AZO and LOW.

Source: Bloomberg

Anemic implied vols persist - despite the event risk catalysts this week - with VIX pushing a 11 handle...

Source: Bloomberg

...and bond vol also compressed...

Source: Bloomberg

We note there is some anxiety on the very short-end... but still a 13 handle is not exactly 'risk averse'...

Source: Bloomberg

The risk, as SpotGamma explained earlier, in these very low IV's, are the very low IV's themselves.

If traders are pricing in 30bps of movement for a given trading day, any move that pushes the market past 30bps (up or down) could lead to a short vol cover and a jumpy stock move. This suggests to us that while you maybe can't find a reason to buy short dated SPX options, shorting them at these IV levels seems like a poor risk-reward (we're looking at you 0DTE traders!).

On that note we think that a cleaner way here for basic "short vol" trades may be owning puts/short call spreads in VXX/UVXY or long SVXY calls/short put spreads. This is because you catch some of the roll decay, and you don't have the strike-risk in 0DTE.

0DTE vols are extremely low but we would expect a jump (as we saw around last week's CPI)...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields slipped lower today, erasing most of yesterday's spike higher with the short-end lagging (2Y -2bps, 30Y -4bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar pushed higher again, erasing Friday's losses...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin slipped back from its overnight surge back up near $72,000 to end basically flat on the day...

Source: Bloomberg

...which follows the sixth day on net inflows to BTC ETFs (and fourth day of inflows in a row to GBTC)...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum outperformed once again as ETH ETF hopes continued to build amid an apparent about-face from the Biden admin's anti-crypto army...

Source: Bloomberg

For context, ETH is now at its strongest relative to BTC since mid-March..

Source: Bloomberg

Gold chopped around and ended flat today...

Source: Bloomberg

Silver continues to outperform gold, now at its strongest relative to the yellow metal since Dec 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, wholesale gasoline prices fell today after the Biden admin announced a release of its strategic gas reserve (not for political reasons of course)...

Source: Bloomberg

Which is noteworthy because gas prices going into Memorial Day are at their second most expensive in a decade...

Source: Bloomberg

...and as we noted earlier, Biden is behind Trump bigly...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 16:00

EPA's Clean Power Plan Rule Prioritizes Net-Zero Over Grid Reliability

Authored by Gabriella Hoffman & Christian Palich via RealClearEnergy,

Coal and natural gas plants provide 60% of the U.S.’ affordable, reliable, and baseload power. In a time of increased electricity demand, America needs to double down on harnessing these sources—not abandon them.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s recently finalized Clean Power Plan 2.0 (CPP) rule, however, takes the country in the wrong direction. Under this regulation, one that is arguably illegal, existing coal and new natural gas power plants will be mandated to install emissions control technologies that aren’t yet commercially viable. Plants that don’t comply risk permanent closure. This unrealistic mandate is advanced under the guise of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 90% by 2032.

The Biden administration should nix this rule altogether given its many drawbacks to the American economy, all of which come with no environmental gain and are based on dubious authority. If it doesn’t reverse course, a forthcoming Congressional resolution of disapproval and newly-filed lawsuits could stop overreach here.

The EPA’s limited authority over-regulating greenhouse gas emissions was affirmed in the landmark June 2022 West Virginia vs. EPA decision. That case challenged the original Obama-era Clean Power Plan, and the Supreme Court ruled the EPA lacked the statutory authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions. No change has been made to grant the EPA more authority over greenhouse gasses.

Moreover, the Clean Air Act says the EPA must craft achievable emission limitations standards that have been “adequately demonstrated.” Yet, the Carbon Capture technology that would be relied upon under this rule has never been “adequately demonstrated” on the scale that EPA is attempting to require.

The EPA rule would lead to grid instability because operators will be forced to adopt intermittent, unreliable, and costly sources like wind and solar. According to the Department of Energy, wind is only reliable 33.5% of the year while solar is dependable for just 24.9% of the time. Wind energy generation decreased for the first time last year. The federal government reports wind generation hit maturity with slower recorded wind speeds, despite adding 6.2 gigawatts of new wind capacity. Solar energy also had a bad 2023 with over 100 companies going bankrupt and expensive electricity rates. Many planned solar plants, including those receiving Inflation Reduction Act subsidies, are predicted to be canceled this year due to price collapse and waning demand.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) warned in its December 2023 Long-Term Assessment report that rigid policies like CPP 2.0 “have the potential to influence generators” to close down their plants. The risk of massive electric reliability issues across the country is by no means a political talking point. In 2023, FERC Commissioner Danly stated in a hearing to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee that “there is a looming reliability crisis in our electricity markets.” In that same hearing, Commissioner Christie said “The United States is heading for a very catastrophic situation in terms of reliability.” These are the experts sounding the alarm that we need more grid capacity from baseload sources, not intermittent ones, or we could face not just loss of commerce but a loss of human life.

CPP 2.0 promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2032 by mandating coal and natural gas plants install carbon capture and storage (CCS) or face closure. But the EPA is downplaying the nascent technology’s shortcomings.

CCS, as it stands, is expensive and will diminish coal and natural gas plant efficiency by at least 14%. Moreover, natural gas and coal plants retrofitted with first-generation carbon capture technology reportedly can expect a 50% and 70 to 80% increase in electricity costs, respectively.

In the U.S., we already have highly effective emissions technology that enables coal plants to run in an incredibly environmental way. For example, just look at how states that rely heavily on coal have almost none of the air quality issues of China or India. That’s because of our emissions control technologies.

Let’s call this rule out for what it really is: It’s a vehicle to punish coal country which has left the president’s party in droves over the last 20 years, in favor of radical environmental non-governmental organization (NGO) donors who are a major constituency of this administration.

The finalized Clean Power Plan 2.0 rule is a bad deal for American energy producers and consumers. Congress should immediately pull the plug on this rule.

Gabriella Hoffman is director of Independent Women’s Forum’s Center for Energy and Conservation (iwf.org/CEC) and host of the District of Conservation podcast.

Christian Palich is Vice President of Government & External Affairs at Eagle Forge Services Company, one of the nation’s largest coal producers and a board advisory member for IWF’s Center for Energy and Conservation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 15:45

Biden Drains Entire Northeast Gasoline Reserve In Bid To Lower Gas Prices As He Trails Trump By Double Digits

Back in March, when reading the mammoth, 1050-page bill that was meant to avert government shutdown, but was yet another pork filled free-for-all bonanza authorizing $1.7 trillion in in discretionary spending, we stumbled upon something that was truly shocking: after Biden singlehandedly drained half of the US strategic petroleum reserve to avoid obliteration for Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections, Congress has snuck in a provision that would sell off and shutter the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve, a move that while perhaps keeps gas prices lower for a day or two, would also leave the entire continental northeast defenseless to any true environmental catastrophe or shock. We were so dismayed by the inclusion of this particular text, we wondered if it hadn't been put there solely for the benefit of America's enemies...

The entire US 1 million barrel Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve will be required to be sold and closed in fiscal 2024, according to bill text of government funding legislation unveiled Sunday

Did China write this bill? https://t.co/d8qLXZ5Gi6 pic.twitter.com/8B2flG0CZw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 3, 2024

... because surely nobody in their right mind, not even the illegitimate senile occupant of the White House, would ever pursue such short-term gains at the expense of potentially disastrous long-term consequences to the entire nation.

We were wrong: earlier today, just two months after the bill was signed by Biden into law, the panicking administration announced that it would sell the nearly 1 million barrels of gasoline in the US managed stockpile in northeastern states, the Department of Energy said, effectively closing the reserve.

The department created the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve (NGSR) in 2014 after Superstorm Sandy left motorists scrambling for fuel. But, according to some megabrains hoping to justify the dumping of gas so its price drops for a few weeks ahead of the summer and avoid even more anger aimed at the president, storing refined fuel is costlier than storing crude oil, so closing the reserve was included in U.S funding legislation signed by President Joe Biden in March.

Bids to buy the gasoline located at the two NGSR storage sites in Port Reading, NJ (900,000 bbl) and South Portland, ME (98,824 bbl), are due on May 28 and the Treasury Department's general funds gets proceeds from the sale. Incidentally, the proceeds from the reserve liquidation - which will amount to roughly $125 million gross (and far less net) - is roughly how much the government spends every 15 minutes!

So is it better to have a gasoline reserve for unexpected events, or to fund a quarter hour of US government's spending? Don't answer that. Of course, the answer is neither - the whole point of selling the gasoline is to depress prices at the pump if only for a few days to help Americans forget about the great inflationary nightmare they have been in for the past 3 years.

The volumes will be allocated in quantities of 100,000 barrels with each barrel containing 42 gallons, the department said and said it would require that fuel is transferred or delivered no later than June 30. That will ensure the gasoline can flow into local retailers ahead of the Fourth of July holiday and that it will be sold at competitive prices. Translation: Biden just drained the Northeast strategic gasoline reserve to push gas lower by a few cents on July 4.

For context, gas prices at the pump this Memorial Day will be the second most expensive in a decade - dramatically above the ten-year average of $2.91...

“By strategically releasing this reserve in between Memorial Day and July 4th, we are ensuring sufficient supply flows to the ... northeast at a time hardworking Americans need it the most,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a release.

“The Biden-Harris administration is laser-focused on lowering prices at the pump for American families, especially as drivers hit the road for summer driving season,″ Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in the statement. “By strategically releasing this reserve in between Memorial Day and July 4th, we are ensuring sufficient supply flows to the tri-state (area) and Northeast at a time hardworking Americans need it the most.”

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said release of gas from the Northeast reserve builds on actions by President Joe Biden, a Democrat, “to lower gas and energy costs — including historic releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the largest-ever investment in clean energy.″

Biden significantly drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, dropping the stockpile to its lowest level since the 1980s after selling about 280 million barrels to keep prices low. The election year move helped stabilize gasoline prices that had been rising in the wake of the war in Europe but drew complaints from Republicans, and frankly anyone with half a brain, that the Democratic president was playing politics with a reserve meant for national emergencies.

The Biden administration has since very theatrically begun refilling the oil reserve, which had more than 364 million barrels of crude oil as of last month, by purchasing a couple million barrels every other month or so, setting it on pace for refilling some time in the 2100s.

“While congressional Republicans fight to preserve tax breaks for Big Oil at the expense of hardworking families, President Biden is advancing a more secure, affordable, and clean energy future to lower utility bills while record American energy production helps meet our immediate needs,” Jean-Pierre said.

As for the real reason behind the latest myopic decision by the Biden admin, today we learned that Trump’s lead over Biden has widened to 13pp in the betting market, the largest difference since mid-March. Meanwhile, political event prediction website PredictIt places higher betting odds on Trump than Biden for the first time since March.

Trump is also leading in the latest polls of all swing states.

Trump is leading by 2% in the latest polls in Pennsylvania. If Biden loses Pennsylvania but wins Wisconsin and Michigan, he then at least needs to win one state from Georgia and North Carolina in addition to one state from Arizona and Nevada to secure a second term.

Meanwhile, closing arguments in Trump's "hush money" case in New York are set to being on May 28. If the jury finds Trump guilty, it is possible for the former president to receive prison time, and judging by how weaponized the "legal system" of the current fascist regime has become, we would not be surprised if Biden goes there.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 14:45

California Governor Escalates War On Gasoline Impacting Neighboring States

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Prepare to pay another $1 per gallon in California with higher prices in Nevada and Arizona too.

The War on Gasoline a Gift to Trump

The Wall Street Journal says Gavin Newsom’s War on Gasoline Is a Gift to Donald Trump.

California’s prices are the highest in the country—$5.21 a gallon on average vs. $3.59 nationwide—owing to hefty taxes and burdensome regulations, such as its cap-and-trade program and low-carbon fuel standard. Here’s the rub: California refineries supply nearly 90% of Nevada’s gasoline and half of Arizona’s.

Mr. Newsom is escalating his war on the industry. The California Energy Commission is planning to impose a tax on refineries’ “gross margins”—i.e., the difference between wholesale gasoline and crude prices plus certain regulatory costs. The gross margin notably doesn’t include refiners’ operating costs, which include employee pay.

Mr. Newsom conflates profits and gross margins. According to the commission’s data, refiners lost between 10 and 38 cents on each gallon they produced from October 2023 through February 2024, while their gross margins ranged from 56 to 79 cents a gallon. In December, California refineries lost 31 cents a gallon while the state imposed $1.15 a gallon in taxes and regulatory fees.

The price gougers in Sacramento now want to penalize drivers even more. Mr. Newsom is pushing the commission to finalize the refinery tax at the same time as the California Air Resources Board, or CARB, prepares to tighten its low-carbon fuel standard and greenhouse-gas emissions cap. These regulations add about 54 cents to the price of each gallon of gasoline. CARB’s rules will increase the cost by an estimated 88 cents a gallon in 2026 and $1.01 by 2031.

Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo last week sent Mr. Newsom a letter expressing concern that the new tax and regulations will “lead to limited supplies and higher fuel costs for consumers in both of our states.” Mr. Newsom’s response? Another deflection. He accused Mr. Lombardo of parroting the “talking points” of “Big Oil donors.”

Arizona and Nevada are increasingly trending in Mr. Trump’s direction as working-class Hispanics bear the brunt of the Biden administration’s policies. Many migrated from California—and like America’s émigrés from socialist countries, they don’t want to relive the misery from their former lands.

Gasoline Top Six

• California: $5.21

• Washington: $4.60

• Oregon: $4.38

• Nevada: $4.38

• Alaska: $4.35

• Arizona: $3.90

California pays $1.62 more than the national average and $0.61 more than Washington, the second highest state.

Despite refiners losing money, Newsom seeks new taxes causing a complaint from Nevada.

If I was a refiner, I would leave that hell hole and let California fend for itself.

The EU Is Spending Billions on Hydrogen-Ready

Across the Atlantic ocean, The EU Is Spending Billions on Hydrogen-Ready, But Where’s the Hydrogen?

I’m all in favor of hydrogen-powered plants to produce electricity if only we had cheap hydrogen. But we don’t and likely won’t.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 14:25

During 'War Drill', Greek Navy Chases Russian Tankers Out Of Oil Transfer Hotspot

The Greek Navy has established a temporary obstacle in the Laconian Gulf, approximately 110 miles southwest of Athens, to disrupt a 'floating oil base' used by Russian tankers for ship-to-ship transfers of crude oil and related products. These products are then loaded onto other tankers and transported to Asia. This action is part of the West's strategy to curtail Moscow's ability to supply energy to customers evading Western sanctions, thereby limiting funding for the special operation in Ukraine. 

Bloomberg reported that the Greek Navy has "re-issued a notice that it would carry out exercises" in the Laconian Gulf area. These previously announced exercises have been extended through June 3. Each notice forces vessels in the region to exit under maritime law. 

This month though, the Greek Navy started carrying out exercises in the area in a bid to halt an activity that helps Moscow's export machine to keep functioning. -BBG

Here's a map of where the military exercises will be held. 

"There is a gap between the Laconian Gulf and the newly-added area where a lot of the tankers are now clustered," Bloomberg noted. 

Greek officials have not publicly stated they are using military exercises against Russia's commercial tanker fleet to deter STS transfers of crude and related products in the sheltered Laconian Gulf area. 

We reported earlier this month that the website TankerTrackers reported tankers conducting STS transferred abruptly left the Laconian Gulf for "reasons that were unknown."

STS Russian transfers from the Laconian Gulf have ended up thousands of miles away in Asia. However, according to the Black Sea Group, some of it ended up at European ports because of Brussels' poor sanction management: 

"68% of the oil was brought to the Laconian Gulf in Greece for transshipment, while the rest was directly exported to the EU ports amid poor sanctions management," researcher Bohdan Ben wrote in a note. 

In a separate Bloomberg report, they noted STS transfers of Russian crude could shift to the Red Sea:

"There are other signs of change in how Russian oil is moving. One tanker also flipped a cargo of crude onto another vessel in the Red Sea last month. The Panta Rei 1 transfered its cargo onto the Odysseus, which then transported its consignment to India. That's the first ever switch observed in that location in ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg." 

This is a new development in how the West fights Moscow. What could possibly go wrong? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 14:05

Southern US Border Sees 143% Jump In Imported Malaria: CDC

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Imported malaria cases in three southern border jurisdictions more than doubled in 2023 from the year prior, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

“During January–December 2023, a total of 68 imported malaria cases were identified from reportable disease surveillance systems in Pima, Arizona (18), San Diego, California (27), and El Paso, Texas (23),” the CDC said in a May 9 report.

A U.S. Border Patrol agent counts illegal immigrants before transporting them for further processing in Campo, Calif., on March 7, 2024. (John Moore/Getty Images)

This is 143 percent higher than the 28 cases in 2022 when there were three in Pima, 12 in San Diego, and 13 in El Paso.

“Because malaria case counts were higher than expected, enhanced case investigations were initiated,” said the agency.

The CDC found that 15 out of 68 cases occurred among U.S. residents. Two were found in newly arrived refugees and two among travelers with unknown immigration status. The majority, 49 cases, were identified among “other newly arrived migrants,” including asylum seekers.

Imported malaria cases in 2023 increased correspondingly to the entry of asylum seekers and other “migrants” into the United States via the southern land border, the CDC said.

The agency advised healthcare professionals to “obtain a complete travel history, consider malaria among symptomatic patients with recent travel through areas where malaria is endemic, and initiate prompt testing and, if indicated, treatment.”

Before arriving in the United States, the U.S. residents and refugees had traveled through other nations infected with the disease.

“Among the 49 other newly arrived migrants, 46 (94 percent) had traveled through one or more countries with endemic malaria.”

Out of the 68 cases, 63 were hospitalized, with almost a third experiencing severe disease. The agency noted that severe malaria was more common among “other newly arrived migrants” than among American residents. No deaths have been reported.

“Approximately 2,000 malaria cases are imported into the United States annually, mostly among U.S. residents with recent travel to areas with endemic malaria.”

Malaria used to be a leading cause of death in the United States before being eradicated in the 1950s.

Last June, five cases of malaria infection on U.S. soil were reported—four in Florida and one in Texas. This was the first local spread of the infectious disease in two decades.

Dr. Eric Cioe-Pena, emergency medicine physician at Staten Island University Hospital and vice president of Global Health, told The Epoch Times last year that “malaria is a serious disease that can be fatal, and its presence within the U.S. is a cause for concern.”

He attributed the spread in the country to the “importation of the disease by travelers returning from regions where malaria is prevalent.”

According to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), patrol agents encountered 2.47 million illegal immigrants at the southwest land border in fiscal 2023, up from 1.73 million in fiscal 2021.

“While it’s possible for malaria to become endemic again (in America), it’s too early to make definitive predictions,” Dr. Cioe-Pena stated.

“Nevertheless, the situation serves as a reminder of the need for continuous vigilance against infectious diseases, even those considered eradicated, and for ongoing investments in public health infrastructure.”

Tuberculosis Reported

In addition to malaria, illegal aliens have brought other illnesses into the United States. Last year, a report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) revealed that thousands of illegal immigrant children with tuberculosis were released from government custody.

The CDC states that people with tuberculosis are infectious and can transmit it. In the report, Aurora Miranda-Maese, an HHS official, said that if tuberculosis were to become active, it would become “a threat to both the individual’s and the public’s health.”

Last month, officials at Chicago’s Health Department said a few cases of tuberculosis were identified among recently arrived illegal immigrants. The agency insisted there was no cause for concern.

In an April 3 X post, Chicago Alderman Raymond Lopez said he had warned the city for months about such a situation but that no action was taken due to “performative politics & hurt feelings.”

“Anyone who demanded action to protect our residents was called racist, xenophobic, and anti-immigrant by fringe politicians,“ he wrote. ”And now here we are: measles, now tuberculosis both ‘confirmed’ in Chicago. Shame on every mouthpiece that worked so hard to keep this secret.

“Everyday Chicagoans MUST demand @ChicagosMayor & his cronies take this seriously, demand American immunization standards for all asylum seekers & their children within @ChiPubSchools , and stop muting the truth.”

Malaria Infection and Symptoms

Malaria is a disease caused by a parasite carried by Anopheles mosquitoes. If the mosquitoes bite a person with malaria, the individual can become infected.

According to CDC, the “risk of malaria in the United States is very low. People do not spread malaria to other people like the common cold or the flu.”

Symptoms range from very mild illness to death. Early symptoms include fever and flu-like illness: chills, headache, muscle aches, and tiredness, plus nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea.

If left untreated, the condition can become severe. Severe malaria can cause kidney failure, mental confusion, seizures, and coma.

CDC recommends that people see a healthcare provider “as soon as possible” if they experience any symptoms of malaria or traveled to a region where the illness is known to occur.

Once the disease is confirmed, prescription drugs are given to treat and cure the illness.

The type of drugs and the length of the treatment depend on the type of malaria infecting a person, the geographical location where the person was infected, and how sick the individual was when they started treatment. Age and pregnancy are other key factors when considering treatment.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there were an estimated 249 million malaria cases in 2022 globally and 608,000 deaths from the disease.

The WHO African Region accounted for 94 percent of malaria cases and 95 percent of deaths. Children under the age of five years made up roughly 80 percent of all deaths in the region.

Meanwhile, the CDC urges travelers from the United States to exercise caution when visiting nations prone to malaria.

The agency maintains a webpage detailing malaria risk across countries.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 13:45

Global Bankers Are Suddenly Worried About The Soaring US National Debt

In January of this year JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon argued in an interview with Fortune Magazine that the record US debt 'Is a cliff...and we're going 60MPH towards it."  He claimed that the situation was a global market rebellion waiting to happen.  His comments preceded reports that the national debt was increasing by approximately $1 trillion every 100 days due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes.  US debt has climbed over $11 trillion since March of 2020.

It's a problem that bankers should have been able to predict well in advance:  The inevitable Catch-22 scenario in which the Fed must either raise rates to stop inflation but cause debt to skyrocket, or, the Fed must lower rates and return to QE to alleviate debts but also trigger an even greater inflation crisis.

The bottom line?  There's no way out.  While Jamie Dimon suggested the economy was headed off a cliff in another ten years, it's likely the threat is approaching much sooner.  Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told Fortune in February that:

'We need to get after' America's $34T national debt: 'You can either admire the problem or do something about it...' 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted in remarks Tuesday to an audience of bankers in Amsterdam that:

“We’re running big structural deficits, and we’re going to have to deal with this sooner or later, and sooner is a lot more attractive than later...”

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) now estimates that debt held by the public compared to GDP will rise to “an amount greater than at any point in the nation’s history," caused by surging deficits.  We witnessed the first sparks of a debt crisis in spring of 2023 with five bank failures, until the Fed stepped in and stalled the avalanche with its backstop program.  The assertion by global bankers is that the next crisis will be sparked in markets (rising bond yields spilling over into equities).  Jamie Dimon chimed in again on debt and deficits this past week on Sky News:

“America should be quite aware that we have got to focus on our fiscal deficit issues a little bit more, and that is important for the world...At one point it will cause a problem and why should you wait?”

“The problem will be caused by the market and then you will be forced to deal with it and probably in a far more uncomfortable way than if you dealt with it to start." 

However, Dimon glosses over the fact that ALL of America's "growth" since the covid pandemic can be attributed to the effects of inflation, not sound financial policies.  The entire system is built upon a frail foundation of more money chasing less goods and this is causing extreme problems in affordability in necessities, including housing.  This is where bankers like Dimon sound far more like malicious propagandists than economic analysts. 

The greater problem which most international and central bankers will deny is the threat to the US Dollar and US treasuries.  An exponentially expanding debt could lead foreign investors to question if the US will be able to cover its debts, which may lead to more investment in short term treasuries over long term bonds, or a hands off approach to all dollar denominated debt instruments.  A dollar crash would be the logical consequence.   

Of course, one thing financial elites fail to mention is what the practical solution would be to the debt problems they describe?  One might argue that this is a ploy by bankers to convince the public that a return to the printing presses is "necessary" in order to prevent a deflationary spiral.  Banks would be the primary beneficiaries should the Federal Reserve bring back QE.  But do markets really matter more than a re-energized inflationary freight train crushing consumers?

Maybe prices on everything need to come down?  Beyond that, should the people who helped create the crisis be trusted to fix it?

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 13:25

The Wrath Of Khan... Or Why At Some Point The Lack Of Global Rule Of Law Will Matter Mightily

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Karim Khan, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), has announced he is applying for arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant, the first time leaders of a Western democracy have been accused. Sadly, however, this does not signal a new era of global adherence to the rule of law, but rather the ICC’s likely self-evisceration.

Khan wants to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant, as a start, for “causing extermination, starvation as a method of war, including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies, [and] deliberately targeting civilians in conflict” within “the territory of the state of Palestine” (which is not a state), and perhaps even for before October 7. Balancing this, though not his CNN speech or media headlines, Khan is also applying for arrest warrants for Hamas leaders Sinwar, Deif, and Haniyeh --two hiding in Gaza, one lounging in Qatar-- for extermination, murder, hostage taking, rape, and sexual assault in detention. Even so, Khan is equating an elected Western leader --albeit one Gallant himself last year implied is demagogic, and last week accused of dragging the war out because he can’t make a political decision on what happens next-- to terrorists.

So, some celebrate. Others despair and argue the evidence against Israel is clearly biased while that against Hamas is from its own bodycams; the ‘controversial’ phrase Netanyahu used, “Remember what Amalek did to you,” is written on the wall at Yad Vashem and in The Hague Holocaust memorial; the allegation Israel closed all crossings into Gaza includes Rafah, which it did not control until very recently; Hamas steals most incoming aid and resells it at vastly inflated prices; Hamas just hugely reduced the casualty figures Western media, politicians, and the ICC repeat; Israel’s judiciary hold its leaders to account; and testimony from Western military experts on the exemplary way Israel carries out the (awful) business of urban combat was ignored. As such, Israelis across its political spectrum are calling this a “blood libel”, as from Europe’s past and today’s US campuses; Hamas complains it should be allowed to do anything as “resistance”; and others point out the ICC hasn’t dived in against clear-cut abuses in many other locales. In short, this is all controversial and divisive rather than lining us up behind the rule of law.

Indeed, the ICC decision can be seen as neutering the right to self-defence it professes to support: what Israeli military action would the Court allow vs. tens of thousands of heavily armed terrorists in a crowded urban area if Israel was, as it strongly claims, simply obeying the existing laws of war? (Which, to be clear, are like calorie-free double chocolate fudge cake: more about psychological than physical comfort or health.) If nothing effective, Israel’s and the West’s enemies will take note and heart. “They knew exactly where to hit us,” says Spock in Star Trek II.

Israel is not a signatory to the ICC so can simply ignore any arrest warrants like Russia’s President Putin, though he travels in the BRICS when Israel is part of the West, even if parts of the West no longer seem to want it. Indeed, it’s within the West where rifts will be felt most. Non-signatory US senators had lobbied the Court to back off, but Khan publicly told them to – no repeat of his dropping investigations into war crimes committed by the US in Afghanistan, and secret CIA prisons, “because of the limited financial means of the ICC.” However, that means defunding the ICC is likely back on the US agenda for Republicans: revenge is a dish best served cold in 2025. And while progressive Democrats cheer, President Biden has called the arrest warrant requests “outrageous.”

Even Europe won’t be spared this polarization: Belgium has backed the ICC, Czechia has already called its action “appalling”, Austria “non-comprehensible”, the UK government which appointed Khan, “unhelpful”, and how will Wilders or Meloni react? So, does the West back the Court or not?

More specifically, can the West still send arms to Israel? If so, what does the ICC step really mean? If not, even with a shift to self-reliance and/or non-ICC India, where does this leave Israel vs. Iranian proxies and Iran close to a nuke? And as Hal Brands notes in ‘Ukraine Is Now a World War. And Putin Is Gaining Friends’, where does this leave Western economies vs. the joint threat of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea?

The Court therefore stirs the pot in a troubled Middle East already seeing unrest in Israel, where unpopular PM Netanyahu is if anything strengthened by the ICC move, as Trump has been with his court cases; the current Israel-Hamas war, which can still grow to encompass Hezbollah more fully, and where any ceasefires now look more difficult to achieve; an ongoing Houthi blockade maybe to expand to the Mediterranean; Sudanese starving because of it, when not fleeing a civil war led by Islamists; the Saudi King gravely ill; Kuwait cancelling its experiment with democracy because people vote for parties like Hamas; the sudden death of Iran’s President Raisi in a helicopter crash; and the US still trying to achieve Israel-Saudi normalisation under a US (and Israeli) defence umbrella.

What might the Saudis -- not charged by the ICC for the war they carried out vs. the Houthis in Yemen -- think of that proposed defence guarantee when it knows US and Israeli hands are tied against the kind of foes it faces? Or maybe the US will just push even harder for the deal to be done now as a result: we shall soon see.

Meanwhile, showing how far we are from a world of justice, or even basic truth, Iran’s Raisi was known as ‘The Butcher of Tehran’ because of his responsibility for many thousands of deaths in the 1980s, and he also helped with multiple human rights abuses since, with no charges leveled by the ICC for either. Instead, while some Iranian youth openly celebrated his death, Raisi got a minute’s silence at the UN Security Council and official condolences from NATO, the EU, and the US State Department, even as Iran arms Russia vs. Ukraine, the Houthis vs. EU shipping, and the proxies which kill US soldiers. It’s as bad a joke as the Israeli social media quip that Raisi was killed by a Mossad agent named Eli Kopter, which some in Hamas thought was real for a while.

To summarise, some may think The Wrath of Khan is the genesis of a new ideal world of the rule of law. Sadly, we can’t be Reliant on such utopianism in a realpolitik world where Western Enterprise is being struck violently, including from within its own team.

As Spock says, the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one. But which few, or one, will it be?

I suspect the ICC. If so, another pillar of the international liberal order’s architecture joins those already seen as impotent (i.e., the WTO and UN), irrelevant (i.e., the IMF and World Bank), or completely incompetent (i.e., The Ivy League, but also pick your acronym).

That backdrop may not vex overexcited markets much. However, it’s another sign of what The Economist just bewailed, echoing my warning from January 2016: that the international liberal order is at risk of collapse, or at least fragmentation.

At some point the lack of a global rule of law, or clashing global rules of law, matters mightily.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 13:05

Russia Launches Tactical Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine In Response To 'Western Threats'

Russia on Tuesday confirmed that its forces have kicked off tactical nuclear weapons drills in its southern military district, which is near the Ukrainian border, in what the Kremlin has described as a response to "threats" by the West.

The defense ministry (MoD) announced that the exercises aim to test the "readiness" of its "non-strategic nuclear weapons … to ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian state."

Illustrative image: Russian long-range strategic bomber

The MoD specified that this is in "response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials."

"Under the order of the commander-in-chief, a military exercise involving practice of preparation and use of tactical nuclear weapons started in the Southern military district under the supervision of the General Staff," the ministry said.

First unveiled in early May, the date and location of the exercises at that early preview phase were unknown. The Foreign Ministry had warned at the time that NATO's own "Steadfast Defender" drills are possible preparations for war with Russia.

And more recently some US and UK officials have been pressing for more Ukrainian attacks directly on Russian soil, with Washington officials now openly debating whether to allow pro-Kiev forces to utilize US-supplied missiles to attack inside Russian territory. Zelensky has meanwhile launched a new aggressive lobbying campaign to push deepened Western involvement: 

Western allies are taking too long to make key decisions on military support for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an exclusive interview in Kyiv on Monday.

He also said he was pushing partners to get more directly involved in the war by helping to intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine and allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons against enemy military equipment amassing near the border.

Russia's Defense Ministry has finally released a video showing the tactical nuke drills it announced a couple of weeks back. And they've blurred out the warheads.

But just the tips. pic.twitter.com/FroQg76qUY

— Mack Tubridy (@macktubs) May 21, 2024

Another among the 'threats' emanating from the West is the possibility of deploying NATO troops in Ukraine. The idea has gained steam ever since Frances Emmanuel Macron first proposed it months ago a security conference in Paris. Lithuania is the latest to recently back the idea.

According to more details of Tuesday's non-strategic nuclear forces drills via state media:

"As part of this stage, the personnel of the missile formations of the Southern Military District are completing combat training tasks for obtaining special ammunition for the Iskander operational and tactical missile system, equipping them with launch vehicles and covertly advancing to the designated positional area to prepare for missile launches," the ministry explained, adding that the Russian aviation is training with the equipment of special combat units of aircraft destruction, including Kinzhal hypersonic missiles.

Russia's military has issued several videos and images of the drills in progress, which will also be monitored closely from Western capitals and the Pentagon. The situation is ominous to say the least...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/21/2024 - 12:45