Individual Economists

India's Power Demand Hits Record High As Heat Drives Coal Use

Zero Hedge -

India's Power Demand Hits Record High As Heat Drives Coal Use

Submitted by Irina Slav of OilPrice.com

India’s power generation rose to a new all-time high amid hot weather that drove air-conditioning demand up, with thermal generation, most of its coming from coal power plants, covering 62% of demand.

Power demand on Thursday hit 271 GW, on the “fourth consecutive day when the peak power demand (solar hours) reached a new all-time high,” India’s power ministry said, as quoted by AFP.

After milder temperatures tempered demand growth in the fiscal year to March 2026 to the lowest level in six years, demand is now beating peak consumption records amid heat waves at the start of this year’s summer.

India’s coal demand from power plants is set to rise by 11.5% in the April to June quarter amid the peak electricity demand season in the country in May and June, sources with knowledge of the matter told the Economic Times in April.

Besides coal, which dominated India’s grid this week, solar power covered 22% of demand, the power ministry also said, while hydro and wind provided another 5% each. India has been putting a lot of effort into diversifying its sources of electricity to reduce its reliance on imported fuels and cut emissions, of which it is the third-largest generator in the world.

India expects to nearly quadruple its solar power capacity and triple wind power-generating assets within ten years, according to the new Generation Adequacy Plan published by the country’s Central Electricity Authority earlier this year.

Challenges, however, remain, mostly in transmission, reflecting the broader global picture, where grid upgrades lag behind wind and solar installations, prompting so-called curtailment, which in the first quarter of the year reached 300 GWh. Coal-fired power generation and capacity installations, meanwhile, continue to rise, and coal remains a key pillar of India’s electricity mix, with about 60% share of total power output.

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 13:45

Tulsi Gabbard Resigns As Director Of National Intelligence

Zero Hedge -

Tulsi Gabbard Resigns As Director Of National Intelligence

Tulsi Gabbard is stepping down from her role as Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to support her husband, Abraham, as he battles an extremely rare form of bone cancer, according to Fox News.

Gabbard informed President Donald Trump of her decision during a meeting in the Oval Office on Friday. Her last day at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) will be June 30, 2026.

In her formal resignation letter, obtained exclusively by Fox, Gabbard expressed deep gratitude to Trump, writing:

"I am deeply grateful for the trust you placed in me and for the opportunity to lead the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for the last year and a half. Unfortunately, I must submit my resignation, effective June 30, 2026. My husband, Abraham, has recently been diagnosed with an extremely rare form of bone cancer."

She added that her husband "faces major challenges in the coming weeks and months," and that she must step away from public service to be by his side.

"Abraham has been my rock throughout our eleven years of marriage... His strength and love have sustained me through every challenge. I cannot in good conscience ask him to face this fight alone while I continue in this demanding and time-consuming position."

Gabbard noted the significant progress made during her tenure, including major declassification efforts (more than half a million pages), reducing the size of the intelligence community and saving taxpayers over $700 million annually, dismantling DEI programs, and establishing a "Weaponization Working Group" to address government weaponization.

The news comes roughly a week after a controversy involving the CIA reclaiming approximately 40 boxes of sensitive documents - including files related to the JFK assassination and MKUltra - from the ODNI. The incident sparked accusations of a “raid” on Gabbard’s office by some lawmakers, though her team pushed back against that characterization amid her broader push for declassification.

Gabbard was confirmed as DNI in early 2025 and has been a key figure in advancing transparency within the intelligence community.

//--> //--> Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?
Yes 27% · No 73%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

This is a developing story.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 13:07

Crowd Burns Ebola Treatment Center In Congo Amid Dispute Over Body

Zero Hedge -

Crowd Burns Ebola Treatment Center In Congo Amid Dispute Over Body

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

People set fire to an Ebola treatment center in a town at the heart of the outbreak in eastern Congo on May 21 after being stopped from retrieving the body of a local man, witnesses and police said.

“The police intervened to try to calm the situation, but unfortunately they were unsuccessful,” Alexis Burata, a local student who said he was in the area, told The Associated Press.

“The young people ended up setting fire to the center. That’s the situation.”

An Associated Press journalist saw people break into the center at Rwampara Hospital and set fire to objects inside, and also to what appeared to be the body of at least one suspected Ebola victim that was being stored there. Aid workers fled the treatment center in vehicles.

The crowd set fire to two tents fitted with eight beds run by a medical charity called The Alliance for International Medical Action (ALIMA), said Deputy Senior Commissioner Jean-Claude Mukendi, head of the public security department in Ituri Province.

Mukendi said the youths had not understood the protocols for burying a suspected Ebola victim.

“His family, friends, and other young people wanted to take his body home for a funeral even though the instructions from the authorities during this Ebola virus outbreak are clear,” Mukendi said. “All bodies must be buried according to the regulations.”

Mother Speaks Out

Family members of a man who died, soccer player Eli Munongo Wangu, wanted to bury their loved one themselves.

Munongo had played for several local teams and was a well-known figure in his neighborhood. He had been admitted to the hospital days earlier. A doctor said he was a suspected Ebola case, and the hospital had taken samples to run tests.

His mother told Reuters she believes her son had died of typhoid fever, not Ebola.

Authorities buried Munongo safely on Friday.

Calm Restored

Army and police reinforcements arrived to bring the situation under control, according to Mukendi.

Patrick Muyaya, Congo’s communication minister, said on X that “calm has been restored and care is continuing normally” at the center in Rwampara.

Muyaya and ALIMA said that six patients were being treated in the part of the facility set on fire.

They have all been located and are being cared for at a hospital. Security measures have been strengthened, Muyaya said.

Charred hospital beds stand in a smoldering Ebola treatment center in Rwampara, Congo, on May 21, 2026. Dirole Lotsima Dieudonne/AP Photo

Condemnation

Mukendi told reporters that “this is precisely a misunderstanding due to young people who do not understand the reality of this disease.”

ALIMA condemned in a May 21 statement what it called “the endangerment of human lives and the destruction of medical equipment essential for the safe care of patients, in the context of a particularly critical epidemic.”

It also warned against “the spread of incorrect or unconfirmed information on social media and the internet, which is likely to fuel fear, misinformation and mistrust towards health facilities and the teams involved in the Ebola response.”

Congo Health Minister Samuel Roger Kamba told a briefing on May 19 that the first known Ebola patient in the current outbreak was placed in a coffin after dying, but that the coffin was damaged.

Family members of the patient put the person in a different coffin, “thus spreading the infection,” Kamba said.

He said that the virus that causes Ebola is mainly spread through touching and improperly handling dead bodies.

“It was from this first case, from this funeral ceremony, that the virus exploded,” he said. “Everyone who was around, of course, was probably infected, and many developed the illness, and everyone thought it was the coffin that was causing it.”

Latest Figures

As of May 20, there have been 64 confirmed cases, 671 suspected cases, six confirmed deaths, and 160 suspected deaths linked to the outbreak, according to the Congolese government.

The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern, and multiple other countries have barred some or all flights from Congo, including Uganda and the United States.

Congo’s government said that the cases and deaths have all been in Ituri province or neighboring North Kivu province.

Rebels holding South Kivu province, though, said Thursday that an Ebola case has been confirmed there. Local officials said there were two suspected cases, including one who died.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 13:05

White House And Pentagon Clash Over $80M ReElement Critical Minerals Deal

Zero Hedge -

White House And Pentagon Clash Over $80M ReElement Critical Minerals Deal

The Pentagon is reconsidering an $80 million conditional loan to rare-earths refiner ReElement Technologies, raising tensions with the White House over efforts to reduce US reliance on China for critical minerals, according to Bloomberg.

The loan, announced in November through the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital (OSC), was part of a broader $1.4 billion critical-minerals initiative alongside Vulcan Elements. But officials reviewing the deal have questioned ReElement’s ability to scale production and meet long-term revenue targets, according to people familiar with the matter.

The loan has not been canceled, and no funds have been disbursed. Pentagon officials emphasized from the outset that ReElement still needed to pass financial, legal, and technical due diligence before receiving funding.

The dispute highlights a broader divide inside the Trump administration between moving quickly to build domestic rare-earth supply chains and conducting rigorous vetting. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro criticized OSC’s review process as too burdensome for emerging companies, calling ReElement “exactly the kind of asymmetric bet we should be making.”

Bloomberg writes that Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell defended OSC’s oversight, saying the office balances speed with disciplined dealmaking. The effort is overseen by Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg.

ReElement CEO Mark Jensen said the company’s work with the government is ongoing and confirmed plans to continue developing its Indiana refining facility.

Under the agreement, ReElement would produce rare-earth oxides from recycled materials, while Vulcan would turn them into magnets used in defense and energy technologies. The Pentagon previously said the companies aimed to produce up to 10,000 metric tons of magnet materials over the coming years.

Despite concerns, the government’s backing helped ReElement attract additional private investment, including a $200 million strategic equity agreement with Transition Equity Partners announced in January.

ReElement, formerly a subsidiary of American Resources Corp., was described in a 2025 filing as being in a “pre-revenue development stage.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 12:50

White House And Pentagon Clash Over $80M ReElement Critical Minerals Deal

Zero Hedge -

White House And Pentagon Clash Over $80M ReElement Critical Minerals Deal

The Pentagon is reconsidering an $80 million conditional loan to rare-earths refiner ReElement Technologies, raising tensions with the White House over efforts to reduce US reliance on China for critical minerals, according to Bloomberg.

The loan, announced in November through the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital (OSC), was part of a broader $1.4 billion critical-minerals initiative alongside Vulcan Elements. But officials reviewing the deal have questioned ReElement’s ability to scale production and meet long-term revenue targets, according to people familiar with the matter.

The loan has not been canceled, and no funds have been disbursed. Pentagon officials emphasized from the outset that ReElement still needed to pass financial, legal, and technical due diligence before receiving funding.

The dispute highlights a broader divide inside the Trump administration between moving quickly to build domestic rare-earth supply chains and conducting rigorous vetting. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro criticized OSC’s review process as too burdensome for emerging companies, calling ReElement “exactly the kind of asymmetric bet we should be making.”

Bloomberg writes that Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell defended OSC’s oversight, saying the office balances speed with disciplined dealmaking. The effort is overseen by Deputy Defense Secretary Stephen Feinberg.

ReElement CEO Mark Jensen said the company’s work with the government is ongoing and confirmed plans to continue developing its Indiana refining facility.

Under the agreement, ReElement would produce rare-earth oxides from recycled materials, while Vulcan would turn them into magnets used in defense and energy technologies. The Pentagon previously said the companies aimed to produce up to 10,000 metric tons of magnet materials over the coming years.

Despite concerns, the government’s backing helped ReElement attract additional private investment, including a $200 million strategic equity agreement with Transition Equity Partners announced in January.

ReElement, formerly a subsidiary of American Resources Corp., was described in a 2025 filing as being in a “pre-revenue development stage.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 12:50

Rising Interest Rates: Why The Narrative Fails Against The Data

Zero Hedge -

Rising Interest Rates: Why The Narrative Fails Against The Data

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Last Friday closed with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.60%, a one-year high, and the doom commentary about rising interest rates was waiting before the bell even rang. Hyperinflation. Bond market breakdown. Paradigm shift. A 1981 fair-value retest. The Fed is about to “push the brrrr button” or pop “the everything bubble.” If you spent any time on social media over the weekend that followed, you saw a version of every one of those.

So I posted a short thread that Friday, making a simple point. Over time, yields track growth and inflation. The chart that drew the strongest pushback roughly showed that relationship, and a wave of responses argued that the framework is broken, debt is about to break the bond market, supply-side inflation has changed everything, and rates have nowhere to go but higher.

However, let’s slow down and look at what the data actually says. Some of those critiques are weak. A few are partially right. And one of them deserves a serious answer. I’ll work through them in order. After 30 years of watching market cycles, the pattern in this setup is more familiar than most commentary suggests.

Rising Interest Rates Follow A Framework That Has Held For Six Decades

Start with the basic identity behind rising interest rates. Of course, a bond yield is what an investor demands to hold a piece of paper for ten years. That demand has two main inputs: the opportunity cost of economic growth and the inflation rate that erodes the dollars being repaid. If real growth is 2.5% and inflation is 3.5%, then a 6% nominal yield breaks even before any term premium. The investor isn’t going to lend at 2% in a 6% nominal economy because that’s a guaranteed loss of purchasing power and a worse return than the broader economy offers.

Importantly, that isn’t a theory I invented. It’s the framework Wicksell wrote about more than a century ago, and it shows up cleanly in the data when you plot yields alongside nominal GDP growth, which is just real growth plus inflation.

Notice how closely the two lines move together. Through the 1970s inflation spike, both lifted. Then, through the Volcker disinflation that began in 1981, both fell. After that, through 30 years of declining inflation and slower trend growth, both drifted lower. Through the COVID shock, both swung. And as inflation rebounded in 2022 and 2023, yields rebuilt the relationship. In short, rising interest rates have consistently mapped to rising nominal growth, and the reverse has been true on the way down.

However, the relationship deserves a more precise statement than “yields track nominal growth.” Over the full 1953 to 2026 monthly history, the 10-year yield has averaged about 0.77 percentage points below nominal growth. Not above, below. So the right way to think about the framework is that yields run slightly below the nominal economy in a stable long-run relationship, and the gap between them has fluctuated within a band rather than collapsing or exploding.

Where does that put us now? Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026. Headline CPI ran 3.8% year over year in April. Together, that puts nominal growth on a 6.04% pace. The 10-year at 4.60% sits about 1.7 percentage points below nominal growth, a gap roughly a full point wider than the long-run average. By the mean-reversion logic the framework implies, the fair value of the 10-year is closer to 5.3% than to 4.6%.

Therefore, yes, there is modest upward pressure on rates from here. However, that is a very different statement than “7% rates and a debt crisis.” It is a slow drift back toward a long-established relationship, not a paradigm shift.

The Fisher Decomposition

Behind the chart above lies an economic principle nearly a century old that still does the heavy lifting in any serious discussion of long-term interest rates. In 1930, Yale economist Irving Fisher published The Theory of Interest, in which he proposed that any nominal interest rate can be cleanly decomposed into two parts. The first is a real return that compensates an investor for locking up capital. The second is an inflation premium that compensates the investor for the loss of purchasing power between the day the loan is made and the day it is repaid. The relationship, in its approximate form, is simple:

The equation looks trivial. The implications are not, because each component has its own economic anchor. Once you understand what anchors each one, you understand what can and cannot cause yields to permanently move to a new regime. That is the practical question every investor worried about rising interest rates is actually asking, even if they have not phrased it that way.

The real return on a long Treasury bond is anchored to the productive economy. Think of it as the opportunity cost of capital. If the real economy grows at 2.5% a year over the next decade, then on average, businesses are earning a 2.5% real return on capital deployed in real activity.

An investor with money to lend has a choice. They can place that capital in the real economy and earn approximately the real growth rate. Or they can lend it to the Treasury for ten years at a fixed yield. If the Treasury offers a real yield of 0.5% when real growth is running 2.5%, the investor is giving up 200 basis points per year for a decade. That trade does not hold up. Over time, capital migrates between the bond market and the real economy until the real component of yield lines up reasonably with the real return potential of the broader economy.

This gravitational pull is what economists call the natural rate of interest, often denoted as “R-Star” or “r*”. It moves slowly, anchored by productivity growth, labor force expansion, and savers’ time preferences. However, it is not a number set by the Federal Reserve, but rather one it estimates. Critically, it has been running around 0.5% to 1.0% in real terms for two decades, consistent with the U.S. trend real growth of roughly 1.8% to 2.0%. That has not changed.

The second component is more direct. If a bond pays a fixed nominal coupon and inflation runs at 4% over the life of that bond, every dollar the investor receives back is worth less than the dollar they originally lent. Therefore, bond buyers demand compensation for inflation on a point-for-point basis. If they expect inflation to average 3% over the next ten years, they want at least three percentage points added to whatever real return they require. If they expect 5%, they want five points. The framework is built on the assumption that bond buyers are not in the business of giving away purchasing power.

The word expected matters more than most casual observers appreciate. The Fisher equation is not about what inflation prints today. It is about what investors expect inflation to be over the bond’s remaining life. If headline CPI runs 4% in April but the bond market believes inflation will average 2.5% over the next decade, the 10-year yield will reflect that 2.5%, not today’s 4%. This is exactly why short-term inflation spikes do not always translate one-for-one into yield spikes. Markets are pricing the forward path, not the rearview mirror. So when commentary points to a hot monthly print and asks why yields are not breaking out, the Fisher framework is the answer.

Why The Two Pieces Add Up To Nominal Growth

Put the two components together. Nominal yield equals real return, which is anchored to real growth, plus expected inflation, which is anchored to the inflation outlook. Add the anchors together, and you arrive at something that, over the long run, looks remarkably like nominal GDP growth. Because real growth plus inflation equals nominal growth by definition.

That is why Chart 1 shows what it shows. The 10-year yield and nominal GDP growth move together over decades because they measure the same economic forces from two different vantage points. The Treasury yield is the bond market’s pricing of growth and inflation over a 10-year horizon. Nominal GDP growth is the realized output of growth and inflation looking backward over a one-year window. Both are samples of the same underlying economy. They will not match perfectly month to month, because one is a forward-looking expectation and the other is a backward-looking realization. But over time, they have to converge, and they do. That convergence is illustrated in Chart 2, with each year as a single data point.

Why The Correlation Isn’t 1.0

The framework predicts that yields and nominal growth move together. The data confirms that they do. However, the year-to-year correlation is around 0.5 rather than 1.0, and the relationship shows visible deviations across decades. Both of those deserve an explanation that does not require throwing out the framework.

Four mechanisms account for most of the noise.

  1. The term premium changes over time. Investors sometimes demand more or less compensation for the risk of holding long-duration paper, depending on the perceived volatility of inflation and the macro outlook.

  2. Expected and realized inflation can diverge sharply, especially at turning points. In 1980, realized inflation was high, but expectations were already falling as the Volcker tightening took hold, so yields topped before headline CPI did. In 2021, the opposite happened. Realized inflation jumped, but markets initially treated it as transitory, so yields lagged the move.

  3. Central bank balance sheet policy can hold yields down (quantitative easing) or push them up (quantitative tightening), independent of fundamentals.

  4. Supply and demand for Treasuries from foreign reserve managers, pension funds, and bank balance sheets shift at the margin and produce real moves in yields without changing the underlying growth or inflation picture.

None of those mechanisms breaks the Fisher decomposition. They explain why the relationship is noisy at high frequency and stable at low frequency. When you smooth the data with a three-year moving average, which absorbs most of those frictions, the correlation between nominal growth and yields rises to 0.68. When you look at decade-over-decade averages, it rises further. The framework holds. The market just takes its time.

An Interesting Asymmetry Inside The Composite

One observation from the data is worth surfacing because it sharpens the doom debate. When you decompose the composite into its two pieces and run the correlations separately, CPI inflation alone correlates with the 10-year yield at r = 0.63. Real growth alone correlates at essentially zero, about -0.07. The inflation component is doing almost all of the explanatory work, and the real growth component is barely registering at the monthly frequency.

That looks puzzling for half a second, then resolves once you remember what bond buyers actually care about. They care about purchasing power first, and opportunity cost second. The inflation premium is the more reactive component, because every percentage point of expected inflation is a percentage point of nominal compensation the investor demands. The real return component, in contrast, is anchored to slow-moving fundamentals like productivity, demographics, and the stance of monetary policy. Those things do not change month-to-month. They change over the years and decades. So in any given year, bond yields move primarily with inflation expectations, and real growth shows up indirectly through the real-rate channel rather than directly through the nominal yield.

This asymmetry is useful for thinking clearly about what would actually break the framework. A regime shift in nominal yields, the kind the doom case is forecasting, would require a regime shift in inflation expectations. Not a one-year inflation spike. Not a quarter of hot prints. A permanent re-anchoring of what bond markets expect inflation to average over the next decade. That has happened exactly once in U.S. modern history, between 1968 and 1980, and it took twelve years of policy mistakes, oil shocks, and lost central bank credibility to produce it. The current setup, however uncomfortable, is not that.

Pull this together and apply it to the present moment.

  • Real growth potential, by every credible estimate, including those of the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve staff, is around 1.8% to 2.0%.
  • Long-run inflation expectations, as measured by the five-year forward breakeven and survey-based measures, are anchored near 2.4%.
  • Add those two and the framework points to a steady-state 10-year yield in the neighborhood of 4.0% to 4.5%, plus a small term premium.

Today’s 10-year at 4.60% is right inside that range. Slightly elevated, perhaps, but not screaming regime shift.

This is where the doom case falters.

The doom case says yields are detaching from growth and inflation, that they will float higher due to debt, deficits, or supply-side forces, and that the long-run relationship is breaking down. For that claim to be correct, the Fisher decomposition has to fail. It has not failed in the United States in any sustained way over the seven decades of clean data we have. It is possible to bet against that, but it is important to be honest about what is being bet against. That bet is against a hundred years of one of the most robust regularities in financial economics, dating back to Fisher’s original work and confirmed by every subsequent empirical study.

The “Debt = Higher Rates” Argument Doesn’t Survive Contact With The Data

Now, for the most common pushback against the framework. The thread of responses ran along these lines.

“We print $2 trillion a year. The debt is exponential. Econ 101 supply and demand says rates have to keep going up.”

Or

“,,,with $39 trillion in debt and rates above 4%, the math doesn’t work. The Fed will either print or hyperinflate. There is no third option.”

Or more simply

“Are you sure debt has little to do with rates?”

Yes, I’m sure. Not because I’m dismissive of debt levels, but because the data over the last 45 years is unambiguous. Here is U.S. federal debt as a share of GDP, plotted against the 10-year yield, since the start of the modern era.

However, I want to be precise about what this does and doesn’t say. It doesn’t say debt is irrelevant. In fact, there’s a real literature on term premium, and large supply shocks at specific auctions can move yields on the day. The 2023 Treasury refunding episode is a clear example in which a shift in expected coupon issuance pushed the term premium higher for several months.

What it does say is that the simple “more debt equals higher rates” thesis fails the empirical test over any meaningful horizon. The reason is that the inflation-and-growth channel runs the other direction. Rising debt service crowds out productive investment, suppresses the marginal return on capital, and slows trend growth. In turn, lower trend growth means lower inflation, which means lower yields. The whole thing self-corrects, just not in the way the doom narrative wants.

If you want the cleanest counterexample to the “rising debt means rising interest rates” theory, look no further than Japan. I’ve made this case in prior work, but the comparison is worth refreshing with current numbers.

Yes, Japan’s 10-year is now at 2.6%, the highest since 1997. The bond vigilantes, the “doom crowd” that has been waiting for 30 years, did finally show up, just much later and much more politely than the script demanded. However, that’s not the point. The point is that Japan has been carrying more than 200% debt-to-GDP for over a decade. By the supply-and-demand-of-debt theory, Japanese yields should have spiraled long ago. They didn’t, because debt isn’t the dominant driver. In fact, inflation, growth, and central bank policy are.

Germany makes the same point in reverse. German debt-to-GDP is 64%, half the U.S. ratio. However, the Bund traded at 3.13% last Friday, well below the U.S. 10-year. If debt were the binding constraint, then Germany would have the lowest yield in the developed world. It doesn’t, because growth differentials, currency dynamics, and ECB policy matter more than the absolute size of the debt stack.

Rising Interest Rates And The Real Debt Service Question

Here is where I want to give the doom side credit, because one of the responses to last Friday’s post hit on a genuine problem. The question was simple. “How much does it cost to service the national debt at 7% interest rates?” That’s the right question. In fact, the fiscal cost of carrying $39 trillion in debt at higher rates is real, and it’s accelerating.

The numbers, pulled directly from Treasury and CBO data through April 2026, look like this. Net interest in fiscal year 2025 ran $970 billion. That was the third-largest line item in the federal budget, behind only Social Security and Medicare, and ahead of national defense. Furthermore, the CBO projects fiscal 2026 net interest will cross $1 trillion. By 2036, under current law, it’s projected to be $2.1 trillion.

That isn’t nothing. That is a serious fiscal problem. However, it’s important to separate the two arguments. The argument that high debt service is a fiscal problem is correct. On the other hand, the argument that high debt service drives yields higher is not the same as the second one, and the second one doesn’t follow from the first.

Here’s the part that matters for portfolio thinking. Historically, when interest costs have climbed toward unsustainable levels, the resolution has not come through a permanent rise in long-term yields. Instead, the resolutions have come through some combination of three things. First, financial repression, where the central bank caps long rates and inflation slowly erodes the real burden. That’s what happened after World War II. Second, recession, which crushes nominal growth, collapses inflation, and pulls yields down through demand destruction. That’s what happened in 1991, 2001, 2008, and 2020. Third, structural reform, which is politically rare and historically slow.

Notably, none of those resolutions involves yields ratcheting permanently higher to compensate for fiscal strain. Italy’s debt-to-GDP has been above 130% for a decade. Italian yields hit 7% during the 2012 eurozone crisis. Today, however, they’re 3.75%, well below the U.S. The mechanism that pulls yields back is the same mechanism that creates the fiscal stress in the first place: slower growth.

The doom narrative tends to skip this loop entirely. It assumes debt service rises, then yields rise, then debt service rises more, and the spiral takes the system out. However, that’s not how the loop has worked in any modern advanced economy. It’s how it worked in Argentina, but Argentina is not the comparison.

About That Oil Shock

Several of last Friday’s responses raised what, on its face, is the more interesting argument behind rising interest rates. Yields are rising because of supply-side inflation. Iran. The closed Strait of Hormuz. Gasoline at $4.50 a gallon. Electricity demand from AI data centers. Base metals, lubricants, and the physical economy. Rate cuts can’t fix supply bottlenecks. So we’re in a stagflationary regime, not a recessionary one, and yields are repricing accordingly.

Importantly, that argument has more weight than the simple “debt = rates” framing. The current setup really is supply-driven. For example, CPI jumped from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March and 3.8% in April. Energy is up 17.9% year over year. Gasoline is up 28.4%. That’s not a demand-led rebound. Instead, that’s a price shock running through the system from the supply side.

However, here is the historical record on supply-side oil shocks. They don’t sustain. Every modern oil shock has followed the same arc.

I want to be careful not to overstate this. For instance, the 1979 episode includes Paul Volcker deliberately driving the U.S. into a double-dip recession to break inflation expectations, which is a specific policy choice that may or may not repeat. Similarly, the 2008 oil spike happened inside an already-developing financial crisis. The histories aren’t identical.

However, what is common across all four is the demand destruction mechanism. Higher oil prices act like a tax on consumers. As a result, consumers cut discretionary spending. Businesses face higher input costs and slower revenue growth simultaneously. Earnings get squeezed. Capex slows. Hiring slows. Demand falls. Consequently, the inflation caused by the oil spike begins to unwind, sometimes within months of the price peak.

“The need to save to service debt depresses potential growth. Absent true investment, public spending can lower r*, passively tightening for a fixed monetary stance.”– Stuart Sparks, Deutsche Bank

If the current Iran situation persists for another 6 to 9 months, the lag effect on consumer balance sheets becomes the dominant story, not the headline CPI print. In fact, we’re already seeing the early signs. Real wages went negative in April for the first time since April 2023. Furthermore, consumer delinquencies are rising. The labor market is cooling. None of that is yield-bullish on a 12-month view, regardless of where the spot oil price is.

“Rates Are At Modern History Highs” Doesn’t Quite Survive A Long Chart

One of the responses worth addressing directly was the claim that yields have hit “the highest in modern history.” That’s a real argument, and partially true if you draw the window narrowly. For instance, UK 10-year gilts are at 5.18%, the highest since 2008. German Bunds are at 3.13%, the highest since May 2011. Japanese 10-year JGBs are at 2.6%, the highest since 1997. Indeed, yields have moved up globally.

However, the U.S. 10-year at 4.60% is well within its long-run range, not above it. The framing of “modern history highs” only works if you treat the 2010s as the normal baseline.

In fact, the 2010s were the anomaly.

That re-framing matters. Critics arguing yields are at “modern history highs” are anchoring on the 2010s, which was the most artificially suppressed yield environment in modern U.S. history. Specifically, that period featured:

  • an aging demographic,
  • two rounds of QE,
  • ZIRP, and
  • then a global pandemic with another round of QE, and ZIRP.

Pulling yields out of that bucket and noting they’re “high” is like measuring temperature against an arctic baseline and concluding spring is a heat wave.

The honest framing is that we’ve spent the last six years normalizing.

The 2020 low at 0.9% was a once-in-a-century print driven by the pandemic shutdown. Therefore, anything heading back toward the long-run average is going to look elevated relative to that. Globally, yields have risen as monetary policy has normalized, inflation has reasserted itself, and central banks have stopped buying every duration auction. However, that doesn’t make today’s yields a regime shift. It makes them a regime reset.

Rising Interest Rates: What This Means For Investors

Stepping back from the framework and the rebuttals, here is the practical takeaway on rising interest rates.

  1. Yields can absolutely stay elevated.
  2. Yields can spike further if the Iran situation worsens or oil pushes through $120.
  3. The term premium can widen.

Clearly, the next six months are not going to be smooth.

However, the structural pull on yields is downward over a 12 to 24-month horizon, for three reasons.

  • First, the framework. Nominal growth is the gravitational pull, and nominal growth is already softening as real wages turn negative and consumer credit metrics deteriorate.
  • Second, the oil shock is a tax on the consumer, not a sustainable demand-led inflation. Notably, the 2008 parallel is the closest, and the 2008 setup ended in a 200-basis-point yield rally as the recession unfolded.
  • Third, the debt-service problem is a fiscal problem that gets resolved through some combination of repression and recession, not through permanently higher long yields.

For portfolios, that points to a few practical implications.

  • Long duration is reasonable to begin layering in at these yields, recognizing that the path could be choppy and that further short-term yield spikes are possible.
  • Pure equity risk needs to acknowledge that earnings pressure from energy costs is building, particularly in consumer-discretionary names.
  • Gold and commodity exposure make more sense as a hedge against the supply-shock tail than as a core inflation play.
  • Cash is paying you to wait at the front end.

The binary framing some of last Friday’s critics offered, “either crash or hyperinflation, there is no middle scenario,” does not reflect how modern advanced economies typically resolve fiscal and inflation strain. In fact, the middle scenario, muddle through with volatility, is by far the most common outcome historically. So position for that as the base case, and stress-test for the tails.

Closing Thoughts

The 10-year at 4.60% isn’t a paradigm shift. It’s a yield doing what yields have done for 60 years: tracking the rate of nominal economic growth around it. Of course, the current setup includes a genuine oil shock, real fiscal pressure, and global yield repricing. However, those facts mean the simple “debt explodes, rates explode” thesis is incorrect. None of them means we’re heading into a Weimar paradigm. Instead, rising interest rates only mean we’re in a supply-led inflation that historically resolves through demand destruction, which in turn lowers yields.

If you want to bet against that pattern, then you’re betting against every modern oil shock and every modern debt cycle in advanced economies. Some bets are worth taking. However, that one has a poor base rate.

I’ll keep watching the data and remain honest when something in the framework breaks. But, in context, last Friday’s move doesn’t break it. In fact, it confirms it.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 12:30

Taiwan Arms Deal Put On Ice Amid China Pressure, But Pentagon Cites Iran War Stockpile Concerns

Zero Hedge -

Taiwan Arms Deal Put On Ice Amid China Pressure, But Pentagon Cites Iran War Stockpile Concerns

Did the Pentagon just back down amid pressure from China? It appears so. As we reported Thursday, China has been actively holding up a proposed visit by Elbridge Colbythe Pentagon's under-secretary of defense for policy. The move is a transparent effort to pressure President Trump over a looming $14 billion weapons package for Taiwan.

Sources familiar with the talks told the Financial Times that Beijing signaled it "cannot approve a visit until Trump decides how he will proceed with the arms package."

Later the same day, Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao revealed that the US is indeed pausing the $14BN arms sale in question, though he framed the move as due to the Trump administration's war with Iran. He said this was to make sure there's plenty of missile supply and interceptors to execute the war, especially in the scenario that a full aerial bombing operation is renewed. 

via AFP

Addressing a Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee hearing, Cao sought to assure that the US still has "plenty” of missiles and interceptors, amid growing concerns from officials.

"Right now we’re doing a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for Epic Fury - which we have plenty," Cao told Sen. Mitch McConnell. "We’re just making sure we have everything, but then the foreign military sales will continue when the administration deems necessary."

McConnell pressed Cao further on the arms sale to Taiwanto which the acting Navy chief responded that it would be up to Pete Hegseth, to which the Republican Senator from Kentucky replied, "Yeah, that’s what’s really distressing."

While the administration is trying to frame all of this as more out of caution over Iran war supplies, The Hill points out that President Trump had already situated it within dealings with Xi and China:

Cao's remarks appear to contradict President Trump’s stated reason for the pause; last week he indicated he may hold off on the arms sale to Taiwan as a "negotiating chip" with China.

"I haven’t approved it yet. We’re going to see what happens," Trump told Fow News. "I may do it; I may not do it."

Speaking to reporters after a trip to China, Trump said the topic was discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping "in great detail" before saying he will "make a determination over the next fairly short period."

As for Colby, the Pentagon had been actively discussing a summer trip to Beijing with Chinese officials, but China effectively froze the process and logistics. 

Trump admin officials have been quick to point out that Trump has approved "the sale of more weapons to Taiwan than any other US president." And so it appears that such bravado should come with a cost, in Beijing's apparent thinking.

And yet, Trump has repeatedly publicly touted his personal relationship with Chinese President Xi Jinping as "amazing" - though his recent Beijing trip did nothing to ultimately produce a breakthrough.

At the very least, all of this also suggests that the dragged-out Iran war is weakening the Pentagon's force posture in southeast Asia, after earlier in the war military assets, including anti-air defense systems, were pulled from the region.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 12:15

Is Take-Two Sandbagging Guidance Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch?

Zero Hedge -

Is Take-Two Sandbagging Guidance Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch?

Take-Two Interactive slumped in early U.S. cash session after the video-game publisher reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results but issued what some analysts described as a "conservative" outlook for the year, even as it reaffirmed the November 19 launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI.

TTWO's earnings, released Thursday evening, initially sent shares higher in the after-market, as traders focused on GTA VI remaining on schedule. However, shares fell once the cash session opened, as the market shifted attention to softer-than-expected guidance on bookings and TTWO's cautious fiscal-year assumptions.

Goldman analysts, led by Eric Sheridan, noted that the fourth-quarter report centered on optimism around its video game pipeline, including 29 planned titles through fiscal 2029 and the reaffirmed November 2026 launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI.

Sheridan said TTWO is expecting higher marketing expenses ahead of the GTA VI release, with Rockstar expected to begin its marketing campaign this summer.

The analyst outlined that traders will remain focused on GTA VI news flow, including potential trailer launches, pre-order data, marketing spend, and early title performance after release.

However, potentially what's driving weakness in the stock today is that the outlook for both bookings and adjusted earnings was disappointing...

Positives: a) FQ4'26 Bookings came in above the high-end of guidance range, driven by outperformance across GTA, Red Dead Redemptio,n and continued momentum in the mobile portfolio; b) Solid RCS growth during the quarter (+7% YoY) was supported by continued engagement across GTA Online, mobile, and NBA 2K series; & c) Positive mgmt. commentary surrounding forward content slate, with the company highlighting a multi-year pipeline (incl. 6 additional titles during FY27 & 29 titles through FY29), alongside additional live service updates across key franchises.

Negatives: a) FQ1'27 Bookings guidance came in below GS/Street (FactSet) estimates, with mobile and the GrandTheftt Auto Series expected to decline (albeit offset by HSD % YoY growth for NBA 2K); b) mgmt. Guided to FY27 RCS growth being flat on a YoY basis - largely driven by the lapping of mobile growth during FY26 (and Color Block Jam success), offset by NBA 2K strength and GTA series growth; & c) Operating expenses expected to increase during FY27, driven by marketing spend and increased R&D investments.

1FQ27 & FY27 Estimate Changes:

  • 1FQ27: Bookings of $1.37bn (from prior $1.55bn), Adj. EBIT of $78mm (from prior $8mm), & Adj. EPS of $0.29 (from prior $(0.06)).

  • FY27: Bookings of $8.08bn (from $9.51bn), Adj. EBIT of $1.40bn (from prior $1.76bn), & Adj. EPS of $5.89 (from prior $7.42).

1FQ27, FY27, FY28, & FY29 Estimate Changes

"We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our 12-month price target from $270 to $275 as we adjust our forward operating estimates for this earnings report and management's forward commentary," Sheridan said.

Separately, Citi analysts said, "Investors are likely pleased that GTA VI is still on track for a November 19 release date, and the 4Q26 results were robust." However, they also noted that the forecast for both bookings and adjusted earnings was disappointing, adding, "We suspect investors will take the guidance in stride, given some level of conservatism that's likely embedded in the FY27 outlook."

Vital Knowledge analysts made similar remarks: "While the bookings guide falls short of expectations, many feel this is just management being conservative."

Bank of America analysts also said the same thing, noting that FY27 guidance looks "overly conservative," arguing that the $8.2 billion sales guide implies only about 31 million GTA 6 units, or 21% console penetration.

One X user said that CEO Strauss Zelnick's forecast ahead of GTA 6 "is a generational sandbag" ...

Professional subscribers can read the full GTA VI note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 12:00

US Lawmakers Renew Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Push With ARMA Bill

Zero Hedge -

US Lawmakers Renew Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Push With ARMA Bill

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

US lawmakers have renewed efforts to codify a US strategic Bitcoin reserve with a new bipartisan bill on Thursday that seeks to acquire around 1 million Bitcoin over five years. 

The American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 would establish a Strategic Bitcoin (BTC) Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile for other federally held cryptocurrencies, which would be held by the US Treasury Department, said the bill’s sponsor, Representative Nick Begich.

ARMA, sponsored by 16 members of Congress, builds on the BITCOIN Act, which was introduced in July 2024 and updated in March 2025.

Source: Nick Begich

In an interview on Sunday, Patrick Witt, of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, referred to ARMA as “Version 2” of the BITCOIN Act and said the White House has spent considerable time examining the legal implications of a Bitcoin reserve.

“It's a breakthrough as far as getting everything in place, legally sound, properly safeguarding the assets.”

The push for a federal policy comes as the US currently holds 328,372 Bitcoin worth more than $25.5 billion — the most of any nation-state — but has sold portions of those holdings through court-ordered actions over the years.

“The US is already one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world. But Congress has never set a federal policy on what to do with that asset,” said US Representative Jared Golden, one of the 16 co-sponsors of the bill.

Under ARMA, Bitcoin must be held for a minimum of 20 years unless it is sold to reduce America’s national debt, which topped $39 trillion on Wednesday.

Like the BITCOIN Act, ARMA also seeks to acquire up to 1 million Bitcoin over five years through budget-neutral strategies, meaning it would avoid using taxpayer money.

US Representative Mike Carey argued that as digital assets continue to grow in importance, the bill could strengthen America’s long-term economic position and help keep it “competitive on the world stage.”

Strive CEO and chairman Matt Cole said ARMA is the “single most important crypto legislation” that could come out of Washington DC.

ARMA could strengthen transparency measures, property rights

Quarterly proof of reserve reports and independent third-party audits of the Bitcoin reserve would be published under ARMA, Begich noted.

The bill also seeks to protect digital property rights by affirming that the federal government may not impair the right of individuals to own or self-custody digital assets.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 11:45

"Huge Shock": China Launches Crackdown On Cross-Border Stock Selling To Block Capital Outflows

Zero Hedge -

"Huge Shock": China Launches Crackdown On Cross-Border Stock Selling To Block Capital Outflows

China launched an unprecedented campaign against illegal cross-border trading to stem capital outflows, threatening severe penalties against brokers and ordering non-compliant accounts to be liquidated within two years, sparking a brutal selloff in three popular brokerages.

As Bloomberg reports, the pushback came after the onshore markets closed Friday when eight regulators issued a joint statement vowing a campaign against these trades, sending US-listed Chinese stocks tumbling.

The securities regulator said it planned to penalize brokerages Futu Holdings, Tiger Brokers and Long Bridge Securities for operating on the mainland without a license, and would confiscate all “illegal gains” from their domestic and overseas entities. Hong Kong’s markets regulator also announced measures on accounts for mainland Chinese investors.

Futu said regulators proposed about $271 million in fines, while Tiger Brokers owner Up Fintech Holding Ltd. said it was subject to a combined 411 million yuan ($60 million) in fines and confiscated income.

“Tiger has noted the relevant notice and will strictly comply with regulatory requirements and actively cooperate with the relevant process,” UP Fintech’s brokerage unit said in a statement, adding that all business operations remain normal. Futu also said it will co-operate with regulators and that business outside mainland China remains normal. China clients represent about 13% of total funded accounts, the firm said in a statement.

The penalty on Futu likely refers to revenue from mainland clients before 2022, Morgan Stanley said in a research note. That’s because Futu has largely stopped adding new mainland clients since then, and the requirement at that time was to ask brokers to continue serving existing clients, according to analyst Chiyao Huang. Separately, JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut Futu to neutral, with a price target of $87. 

The impact on the brokers’ shares was immediate: Up Fintech saw its ADRS sink 25% on Friday, while the US-listed shares of Futu tumbled 27%. The declines spread to other Chinese stocks, as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.9%

The joint plan, issued on Friday by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Public Security and five other government bodies, aims to dismantle unauthorized offshore investment services that target mainland investors.

Officials said the measures are designed to clean up the capital market and steer investors toward regulated channels for overseas investment. An estimated $1.04 trillion of so-called hot money flowed out of the country in 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations - the biggest annual outflow since data began in 2006.

The moves amount to China’s most aggressive attempt yet to clamp down on its citizens finding ways to trade overseas markets, a long-running practice that is officially off-limits for a nation that imposes strict capital controls to defend its currency.

But as Bloomberg notes, the ramifications may be much wider than just the brokers targeted. Chinese companies’ global ambitions have led them to list in New York, London and particularly Hong Kong, and Chinese citizens have invested large sums as they follow their national champions overseas.

This came as a huge shock that the plug would be pulled today,” said Chen Da, founder of Dante Research, adding that the biggest surprise was the push to close existing accounts within two years. “This is very bad news for Chinese ADRs and the Golden Dragon Index if people rush to liquidate all at once.”

The Hong Kong stock market’s strong performance has attracted a growing number of mainland investors to open overseas accounts illegally to trade there, increasing outflows and likely providing authorities a stronger incentive to stop such practices, said Allen Wang, a Shanghai-based partner at Jincheng Tongda & Neal Law Firm.

The shocking crackdown also coincides with Chinese tax authorities’ intensifying drive to get its citizens to pay taxes on offshore income, he noted. A number of clients have since last year been contacted by officials to pay taxes for gains including those from overseas stocks trading, with some having opened new accounts in Hong Kong after 2022, he added.

Under the new initiative, overseas institutions will be banned from marketing in China related to securities, futures and fund products. They will also be prohibited from offering account-opening services, executing trades or facilitating fund transfers for domestic clients.

The crackdown extends beyond foreign firms. Domestic entities that assist such operations, including intermediaries that solicit investors or companies providing website, trading software or customer support, will also be subject to enforcement action. Internet platforms and social media accounts publishing illegal promotional content are included. In addition to securities laws, violations involving foreign exchange controls, anti-money laundering rules, cybersecurity requirements and personal data protection will also be inspected.

Banks will face closer scrutiny as well. Institutions providing accounts for cross-border investment will be required to strengthen compliance checks on outbound foreign exchange transactions, as regulators move to curb illicit capital outflows, including those routed through underground banking networks.

The move comes around three years after local retail traders were cut off from accessing the apps of Futu and Up Fintech, an early sign that Beijing was growing impatient with cross-border flows. In 2023, the firms were forced to scrub their trading platforms from mainland app stores. That followed a late-2022 directive where regulators told Tiger and Futu to rectify “illegal” activities and stop taking on new onshore investors.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 11:25

'Mission Impossible' Begins: Watch Live As Kevin Warsh Is Sworn In As 17th Fed Chair

Zero Hedge -

'Mission Impossible' Begins: Watch Live As Kevin Warsh Is Sworn In As 17th Fed Chair

Kevin Warsh, who’s promised the biggest shakeup in decades at the US central bank, is set to be sworn into office this morning at 1100ET in a White House ceremony as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve.

Warsh takes over at a tense moment for the economy and the central bank. Inflation has reaccelerated, driven by the impact of war in the Middle East on energy supplies. The Fed, meanwhile, has been battered by President Donald Trump for not cutting interest rates quickly enough.

That backdrop of persistent inflation and political pressure has stoked concern among investors and analysts that the Fed’s independence is under threat. In his confirmation hearing for the job, Warsh repeatedly pledged to act independently even as he criticized the central bank for what he called mission creep and its response to the pandemic inflation surge.

Warsh faces the highest 10Y yield of any Fed Chair being sworn in since Greenspan and a market that is priced dramatically more hawkishly than The Fed's 'dots' expected...

For those watching closely, the first sign of new management will likely be visible in the Fed’s communication about monetary policy.

The June 17 press conference could give us a first taste.

Warsh has promised less forward guidance, data dependence and near-term forecasting, and more dissent.

This would be a structural break from the Bernanke-Yellen-Powell years.

Warsh's swearing-in ceremony is due to start at 1100ET...

As James E Thorne wrote on XKevin Warsh’s arrival at the Federal Reserve is not a personnel change. It is a regime change attempt inside an institution built to prevent one.

A supply-sider now runs a central bank hard-wired for Keynesian demand management, and the machine is already resisting the new code.

The next mistake is visible in plain sight. Keynesians on Wall Street and inside the Fed are treating a supply shock as if it were a demand boom and calling for tighter money. This is dogma masquerading as seriousness. A chokepoint in the Strait of Hormuz, a jump in energy prices, and a cost shock rolling through transport, food, and manufacturing are not evidence of overheated demand. They are evidence of a damaged supply side.

Monetary policy cannot reopen a shipping lane. It cannot pump more oil. It cannot repeal geopolitics. It can only crush demand somewhere else, usually with a lag, and usually in the most interest-rate-sensitive corners of the economy first, housing, commercial real estate, capital spending, and durables. Those sectors did not close the Strait. They are simply first in line to pay for the Fed’s intellectual mistakes.

That is the Keynesian reflex in its purest form. Every price spike becomes “inflation.” Every inflation scare requires a rate move. Every rate move is advertised as proof of resolve. It is nonsense. A change in relative prices caused by a supply shock is not the same thing as an inflationary spiral. Pretending otherwise is how central banks turn an external shock into a domestic recession.

Machiavelli explained why change is so hard. The innovator makes enemies of everyone who did well under the old order and wins only lukewarm defenders among those who might benefit from the new. Christensen gave the same warning in corporate language. Incumbent institutions kill disruptive change because their processes, incentives, and prestige are built around the existing model. 

That is the real problem Warsh faces. The resistance is not incidental. It is structural.

The test for Warsh is not whether he can sound tough on television. It is whether he can resist the Wall Street catechism that every supply shock must be met with tighter money.

If he hikes rates into a supply-driven price spike to prove his anti-inflation credentials, he will not have broken with the Keynesian regime.

He will have submitted to it.

This is not the 1970s.

Expectations are not unanchored, and the productive economy is already scarred by years of policy excess, fiscal decadence, and institutional bias. 

The hope is that Warsh understands the difference between inflation and a supply shock, ignores the Keynesian pundits, and refuses to compound one policy error with another.

But as Ron Paul writes, Warsh faces an 'Impossible Mission' as Fed Chair as the markets greeted him with a worldwide spike in government bond yields.

Washington will read this as a problem of personnel, a question of whether the new man will cut rates fast enough to please the president who appointed him.

Ron Paul reads it as something older and more honest:

the predictable arithmetic of a state that has spent decades borrowing against the future, debasing its currency, and then waging wars it cannot pay for.

A new chairman changes none of that. The debt is still north of 39 trillion dollars, the dollar is still losing value faster than wages can keep up, and the printing press is still the only tool the warfare state has left.

What follows is Paul’s account of how the bill comes due, and why the people least responsible for running it up will be the ones handed the tab...

After Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Federal Reserve chairman last week, he received a stark reminder of the challenges facing the central bank. The reminder came in the form of a worldwide surge in the interest rates paid by government bonds. The surge followed the spike in oil prices caused by the Iran War.

The rise in bond yields comes along with the news that, according to government statistics (which are manipulated to understate the real rate of inflation), consumer prices increased by 3.8 percent over the past year while wages increased by 3.6 percent. This means that, even though many Americans received nominal wage increases, their real (adjusted for inflation) incomes fell.

The decline in real income is why more Americans are maxing out their credit cards or carrying large balances on cards. The high interest rates on those cards trap many Americans in debt burdens from which they are unable to escape.

President Trump’s “solution” to the economic problems facing many Americans is lower interest rates. Jerome Powell, who Warsh is succeeding as Fed chair, has refused to lower rates to the level desired by President Trump. This is a big part of why the president has said he chose not to reappoint Powell.

Concerns that Warsh would allow President Trump to dictate monetary policy help explain why only one Democratic Senator voted for Warsh’s confirmation.

Lowering rates may slightly reduce credit card and other interest rates paid by consumers. However, it will further erode the dollar’s value, thus further reducing Americans’ real incomes and causing them to go further into debt.

The Fed also faces pressure to lower rates in order to monetize the over 39 trillion dollars and rising federal debt. Before the Iran War, the Federal government was projected to spend 16 trillion dollars over the next ten years just on interest on the national debt. That amount has no doubt increased thanks to the billions spent waging an unconstitutional war against Iran.

The Iran War has harmed economies around the world and could result in a global debt crisis as the disruptions cause governments to default on their debt. The disruptions could also lead to new challenges to a basis of the dollar‘s world reserve currency status — the petrodollar system linking the dollar to oil.

After President Nixon severed the last link between the dollar and gold, then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia where the Saudis would use only dollars for the oil trade in exchange for American military support. In recent years, interest in challenging the petrodollar and the dollar’s world reserve currency status has grown. This is in large part because of opposition to the US government’s use of the dollar’s status to support the US government’s sanctions.

The end of the petrodollar and the dollar’s world reserve currency status will likely lead to major inflation as the Fed desperately pumps money into the economy to monetize ever increasing levels of federal debt. The good news is this could bring about the final collapse of the welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system that sustains it.

While the short-term results of this collapse will be painful, if those of us who know the truth are successful in convincing a critical mass of people to support free markets, limited government, and a noninterventionist foreign policy, the crisis will lead to a new age of peace, prosperity, and liberty.

*  *  *

The bottom line is that, as Rabobank concludes, Warsh is in a difficult position trying to convince the FOMC to cut rates as the White House prefers, while the economic data suggest the Committee could remain on hold or even hike.

If he lets the FOMC’s caution prevail, he could face criticism from the White House. Powell’s experience could serve as a stark reminder.

However, if Warsh pushes for policy rate cuts that go beyond what is seen as appropriate given the economic data, the bond market vigilantes will punish him with higher longer-term rates.

The FOMC may think monetary policy is still in a good place, but the new Chair will be between a rock and a hard place.

Good luck Mr.Warsh!

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 10:50

UBS Warns Of "Scary" Oil Price Scenarios Once Inventory Buffers Run Dry

Zero Hedge -

UBS Warns Of "Scary" Oil Price Scenarios Once Inventory Buffers Run Dry

Drawing down crude inventories at a record pace, with SPR releases doing the heavy lifting to cushion the Gulf supply shock, only delays the move higher in crude oil prices. Once those buffers are depleted, oil risks being violently repriced higher.

That is why the Trump administration's race to secure a peace deal with Iran and reopen the Hormuz chokepoint has taken on new urgency in recent weeks. The longer the critical waterway remains disrupted, the greater the risk that the oil shock will escalate from a market event to a financial crisis, with higher crude prices feeding directly into inflation, consumer stress, and broader recession risk.

The message from the SPR crude data this week, the largest ever draw, is very clear: The Trump administration is buying time to get a deal done with Tehran. If Hormuz does not reopen soon, the market will eventually force demand destruction through much higher prices.

UBS analyst Arend Kapteyn penned a note Friday morning titled "When The Oil Buffers Run Out."

Kapteyn warned, "Oil prices can move much higher once inventories are depleted."

He continued:

This week saw the largest-ever drawdown in US oil inventories since records began in 1982: commercial inventories and the SPR combined fell by 17.8mb. These stock draws help explain why—despite nearly three months of supply shortfalls from the Middle East—oil is still trading "only" around $105/bbl.

Oil prices and volumes are linked by the price elasticity of demand. A simple relationship allows us to approximate price outcomes under different supply disruptions and degrees of demand destruction:

The oil team estimates that the net supply loss via the Strait of Hormuz is around 9mb/d after SPR releases, equivalent to a ~9% disruption.

At $105/bbl, this implies demand elasticity of roughly –0.2: a 1% increase in prices reduces demand by 0.2% (see chart). Without SPR releases, the supply shock would be closer to 12%, implying a price nearer $123/bbl.

There are two ways in which oil prices could increase much more:

  • First, if inventories are depleted they can no longer buffer the supply shortfall.
  • Second, as the "easy" adjustments in consumption and production are exhausted, demand becomes less responsive to higher prices.

The chart highlights some scary combinations.

For instance, if the global supply shortfall were 14% then even with the current demand elasticity, oil should be trading closer to $140/bbl. If the demand elasticity was 0.15 rather than 0.2, the implied oil price would be $208/bbl, and if the demand elasticity was 0.1 prices would approach $372/bbl.

Earlier this week, SPR data showed drawdowns continue to accelerate, with 9.92 million barrels - a record - drained last week. That means over 10% of the SPR has been depleted in just a few short weeks.

Total U.S. crude stocks, including the SPR, are at their lowest level since June 2025, with this week seeing the largest combined SPR and commercial stock drawdown in history.

Cushing stocks are rapidly approaching "tank bottoms" once again.

Reminder to readers: Global visible stock draws accelerated over the last week, bringing average May month-to-date visible stock draws to a record 8.7mb/d.

Earlier, Rapidan Energy Group analysts warned that a prolonged closure of the Hormuz chokepoint risks pushing the economy into a downturn on a scale approaching that of the 2008 Great Recession.

The clock is ticking for the US to secure a deal with Tehran to reopen the critical waterway and avert a further energy shock that would complicate the Trump team's midterm election odds.

Professional subscribers can read further commentary on the Gulf energy crisis-related mayhem at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 10:35

Viral Video Reveals Extent Of LA's Homeless Hell

Zero Hedge -

Viral Video Reveals Extent Of LA's Homeless Hell

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A shocking video making the rounds shows the reality of life under Los Angeles bridges: a sprawling setup of makeshift homes complete with lighting tapped into the city power grid, tables of items, and a self-contained community living off public resources.

The clip, originally from local documentarian @whitewallstuntz, captures a resident proudly displaying his space. "This how people living out here in LA man. My boy got the whole bridge to himself."

The footage reveals lighting strung throughout, suggesting direct access to grid electricity, alongside what appears to be a network of living areas.

The post continues, "These people are living down here for free, getting energy for free, guaranteed they all have EBT cards and free health insurance. It's like a self contained city 100% paid for by taxpayers. This screams 3rd world country but it's in Los Angeles, California. One of the most expensive, once iconic places on earth."

California's homelessness crisis has reached this scale despite enormous spending. The state poured roughly $24 billion into programs between 2019 and 2024, with totals climbing toward $37 billion when including later allocations.

Yet the problem persists, with over 187,000 people experiencing homelessness statewide as of recent counts. Los Angeles County alone accounts for tens of thousands of that total.

Democrat-led policies in Sacramento and LA have funneled massive sums into the system with little measurable success in reducing street homelessness long-term. Audits have repeatedly flagged poor tracking of outcomes, leaving taxpayers wondering where the money actually went while scenes like this underground network expand.

A related clip, which is actually over three years old, drives home the incentive problem. In it, a man who moved to San Francisco explains: "If you're gonna be homeless, it's pretty f*cking easy here. I mean, if we're gonna be realistic, they pay you to be homeless here."

When asked to clarify he responds "$200 food stamps and $620 bucks cash a month - it's free money, dude. This right now is literally by choice. Literally by choice. Like, why would I want to pay rent? I'm not doing. I got a cell phone that I have Amazon Prime and Netflix on."

This dynamic fuels what many call the 'Homeless Industrial Complex'.

Joe Rogan has repeatedly highlighted the issue on his show, slamming the waste and lack of accountability. In one discussion, Rogan questioned pouring billions more into the problem with no results, pointing to high salaries for those managing programs while conditions on the streets worsen.

Rogan and guests like Michael Shellenberger have exposed how the system creates incentives to maintain rather than solve the crisis.

While California's Democrat strongholds descend ever deeper into third-world conditions, Washington D.C. offers a striking contrast. Under President Trump's direct intervention, the nation's capital has seen aggressive encampment clearances, restored historic parks and fountains, and visibly cleaner public spaces - with families and even blue-haired locals now reclaiming areas once overrun by vagrants and decay.

This proves decline is a choice. Where endless taxpayer billions and soft policies create underground cities in LA and San Francisco, decisive enforcement and accountability are already making America's capital livable again.

California Democrats have controlled the levers of power for years, promising compassion while delivering third-world visuals in one of America's wealthiest states. Billions spent, power grids tapped for free, EBT and services flowing - yet the encampments multiply and iconic cities decay.

America First priorities like accountability, enforcement against open drug use, and real pathways to self-sufficiency offer a stark contrast. Taxpayers deserve better than funding underground cities while surface-level failures mount.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 10:15

As Stocks Hit Record Highs, Americans' Consumer Confidence Collapses To Record Low

Zero Hedge -

As Stocks Hit Record Highs, Americans' Consumer Confidence Collapses To Record Low

With the "mini war" still ongoing (albeit with a 'ceasefire' in place), expectations were for UMich consumer sentiment to continue languishing at record lows in final May data released this morning.

And it did, with the headline sentiment - along with both Current Conditions and Expectations - all plunging to record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Yep... Americans have never been more miserable... Black Friday, meh; 9/11, nothingburger; GFC, fleshwound...

The cost of living continues to be a first-order concern, with 57% of consumers spontaneously mentioning that high prices were eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

So far, consumer spending has proved resilient as the job market holds up and a stock-market rally bolsters wealth.

“Critically, consumers appear worried that inflation will increase and proliferate beyond fuel prices, even in the long run,” Hsu said.

Consumers expect prices to rise an annualized 3.9% over the next five to 10 years, up from 3.5% in April and the highest in seven months. They also saw costs advancing 4.8% over the next year.

This month’s increase in long-run expectations reflects sizable jumps among independents and Republicans.

For the latter group, long-run inflation expectations are currently more than double their February 2025 reading on a monthly basis.

Republicans' confidence overall is starting to fade...

Finally, here's the k-shaped economy writ large...

Stocks at record highs (thanks to AI CapEx dreams) while sentiment at record lows (thanks to inflationary pressures on low income consumers - among other things)...

This divergence is ultimately unsustainable.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 10:09

At the Money: Blurring the Lines Between Public & Private Investments

The Big Picture -



 

 

At The Money: Blurring the Lines Between Public and Private Investments with Dave Nadig, ETF.com (May 20, 2026)

There used to be a clear distinction between public and private companies. Firms would take years or even decades to grow, build their revenue and profits, and eventually tap the public markets to go national or even global. This is no longer how it works.

Full transcript below.

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About this week’s guest:

Dave Nadig is President and Director of Research at ETF.com, and he shares with us how investors should navigate all of these new products. Dave helped design and market some of the first exchange-traded funds. He is the author of  “A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds” for the CFA Institute.

For more info, see:

LinkedIn

Twitter

Substack

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

Barry: There used to be a clear distinction between public and private companies. Firms would take years or even decades to grow, build their revenues and profits, and eventually tap the public markets to go national or even global. That doesn’t seem to happen anymore as endless amounts of capital slosh through the system. More and more companies are staying private, but there’s a group of private investors that are accessing public capital through various wrappers, including ETFs.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Dave Nadig. He’s president and director of research at etf.com, and he shares with us how investors should navigate these public-private hybrids. Dave is also the author of the book A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange Traded Funds. So Dave, there was once a very bright line between public and private markets. Has that line disappeared, or has it simply moved into wrappers that investors don’t fully grok?

Dave: I think it’s more the latter. The rules haven’t really changed — that’s important to point out here. It’s not like we passed a law that said everybody can get in. What’s changed is that there’s a willingness by the issuers of product to get a lot more aggressive in what they’re positioning as retail-appropriate vehicles. So there’s not a new wrapper here. What there are are new ways of stretching the edges of wrappers that had been around for almost a hundred years at this point.

Barry: So let’s put some numbers on that. Since 2010, private credit has raised something like $1.8 trillion. Every major firm — Blackstone, Apollo, KKR, Ares, Blue Owl — is building retail channels. There were 314 interval funds and tender offer funds with $277 billion in assets as of January of this year, 2026. A lot of chatter that private is going after the 401(k) market next. What does all this capital mean to investors?

Dave: You know, the thing investors need to realize is that if you are the one being offered a product, you need to ask yourself why. If somebody’s coming to you and saying, “I want to give you access to private credit or private equity,” it’s very smart to say, who is selling this to me, and why are they selling it to me now? And unfortunately the real answer here is — look, we’re in this incredible bull market, let’s just be really honest. Things have been going up for a very, very long time.

And because of that, there is a lot of money looking for exits. At the end of every cycle in my career, it is retail that is looked at to be the exit. Whether that’s buying Beanie Babies, used cars, or stocks, it doesn’t really matter. At the end of the day, the retail investor is the one that the quote-unquote smart money, the big institutional money, is looking to unload their positions onto.

So it’s not surprising to me that we’re seeing a lot of discussion around quote-unquote democratizing private investing — whether it’s venture capital or private credit, it doesn’t really matter. It’s all the same thing. We just have to accept that we are going to be marketed these products, and for the most part, I think investors are not well served by them. But that’s worth poking at.

Barry: So we should all take some advice from that great alternatives investor, Groucho Marx: I don’t want to be a member of any club that would have me.

Dave: Exactly.

Barry: So let’s talk a little bit about how this used to look. In the old days, historically, companies would go public to raise growth capital. Today it seems like a lot of the best-known private firms can stay private indefinitely, and those that do go public seem just to be reaching for liquidity for insiders. Is that what’s happening with these various ’40 Act funds in all sorts of new wrappers?

Dave: Yeah, there are two things going on here. On the one hand, eventually these private companies go public, and there’s a lot of effort to get investors involved in those IPOs. That’s the end state of what we’re talking about. I want to focus a little bit more on the beginning state, which is how the actual money in private equity gets there.

Historically, how that money ends up in a private company is pretty simple. There’s some pool of assets — generally an LLC or a limited partnership — and it collects a billion dollars of money from a bunch of rich people, endowments, institutions, and financial advisors. That money goes into a pool, which then makes a bunch of small investments in, say, 15 different startups in Silicon Valley. The idea is that one of those hits big, and then the payout from that is either that company gets bought or it goes IPO, and all the investors in that limited partnership get a big check.

That’s the structure. How that little pool of private money gets managed can really vary. It’s very common for it to be literally a limited partnership. But the problem with that is you can only get so many investors into it.

When you want to get a lot of investors, you have to go to some sort of regulated vehicle, and then you end up in usually a closed-end fund of some kind — whether it’s a traded closed-end fund, a non-traded closed-end fund, an interval fund, or a tender offer fund. They’re all versions of the same thing. They’re funds that are roach motels: money goes in, money never comes out.

Barry: Define those various things. What’s the difference between a tender offer fund, a closed-end fund, an interval fund — for people who may not be hip to all these different acronyms? Go through the whole list.

Dave: So really the main structure is the closed-end fund, or the CEF, which is part of the ’40 Act — just like an open-ended fund, which is an ETF or a mutual fund. Same rules, same laws, very similar structures at the very high level. The biggest difference is a closed-end fund is basically subscribed to once, like an IPO. You go out, you say, “I want to raise a billion dollars.” You see if you can get a bunch of people to give you that billion dollars.

Now that is a closed pool of money. And whether or not money ever comes out of that pool again depends on how the rules are written for that fund. In the most investor-friendly version, it tends to be a traded closed-end fund, meaning you can go to the NYSE and get a bid for it, and it may be trading at a discount or not. That’s the version that, for instance, Pershing Square just launched. Pershing Square just filed PSUS, which is a fairly traditional closed-end fund. They raised a bunch of money.

Now it trades in the open market, and much to Bill Ackman’s dismay, it’s trading at a 20% discount to what it’s actually worth. That’s pretty common in closed-end funds, because there’s no liquidity. You can only buy it or sell it from other people who happen to want it or own it.

Barry: And to clarify, PSUS — are the holdings private or public, or both?

Dave: At the moment that’s really going to be public equities. I think what people are trying to buy there is Bill Ackman’s high concentration, use of some leverage to get better exposure, special-situations kind of investing. That was a specific offering that he’s tried — I think this is his third tilt at this windmill — and finally got this one to close, albeit not with the pricing he probably would’ve hoped for. But that’s actually a pretty traditional closed-end fund.

You raise a bunch of money, you trade it back and forth with your friends, maybe it throws off dividends, maybe it throws off a capital gain someday if they have a big win. But you’re never expecting to get your money out. You can do the exact same thing and not have it ever be traded — and that’s a non-traded private equity fund.

That’s a pretty common thing. BREIT, a really well-known REIT fund, is one of those non-traded closed-end funds, and we’ve had a bunch of those launched recently also really targeting private equity. So that’s another very common version of it.

Barry: And full disclosure — what I’m about to talk about is something I own. Boaz Weinstein has an ETF, CEFS, that looks for closed-end funds that are trading at a discount to NAV. He buys them and then either agitates for the manager to buy back enough stock so it’s trading at NAV, or to break it up and just sell all the pieces and return the money or give the stock back to the investors. Why do so many of these closed-end funds trade at such a discount that activists are haranguing management for what essentially is a dollar trading at 75 cents?

Dave: Well, the discount comes because of what you just said. There’s no liquidity in it. There’s no way to ever extract real value from the fund. It’s permanent capital, largely from the perspective of the issuer.

That’s why the issuer loves it. They’re just like, “I have a $2 billion portfolio. I never have to worry about providing liquidity. I’m fine.” So if it trades at a discount, that manager really doesn’t care. They’re still getting paid based on NAV — often paid on NAV that’s been goosed by a bunch of leverage.

So they still get paid. The end investor is the one sitting here going, “Why am I sitting here at a discount?” So arb-ing out of the discount is a classic tale. People have been doing that since the sixties.

Barry: But that’s a —

Dave: — story for closed-end funds.

Barry: Right? With ETFs, the arb means there’s no discount, because you could always buy it, open the wrapper, and sell the stock. So it just seems weird that closed-end funds don’t have the same response to arb.

Dave: It’s like an appendix on regulatory structure, right? It’s this vestigial piece of flesh that’s attached to the ’40 Act. And that’s why, as you mentioned at the top of the show, there are only a couple hundred of these things. Generally people only use the closed-end fund structure when they have one of a couple of problems to solve.

One is they’re buying stuff they literally can’t sell. So in the case of USVC — the one that AngelList’s Naval just launched, I’m still trying to get my money into — the whole idea there is that buying stakes in SpaceX and private companies like that, you can’t just liquidate. They need to be able to close the liquidity gate. That’s usually reason number one.

Reason number two is usually leverage. If you’re trying to do some sort of levering up bonds to try to get 15% returns out of them — those kinds of portable alpha strategies, or risk parity strategies where you really need to be able to go long and short and get lots of leverage — you can do that in the closed-end fund structure where you can’t in a traditional mutual fund or ETF. So it does solve a problem.

The issue is, it’s very rarely a problem the normal investor has.

Barry: So you mentioned PSUS, and I remember that fee was not five bips. What was the fee on PSUS?

Dave: I think it’s 2% out of the gate.

Barry: Oh, that’s a chunk of cash. But no 20 — it’s not a two-and-twenty hedge fund. It’s just a two.

Dave: Yes, exactly.

Barry: And what about products like USVC? By the way, I love that these all have the name “US” in them. I guess the plan is they’ll do an overseas version one day as well.

Dave: Look, all of these funds are generally pretty expensive. Something like USPE, which is the one that’s come from Tap — that’s basically just going to buy a bunch of private stuff that they get access to — is charging 2%, but what they’re buying is other funds. So you get a lot of acquired fund expenses. It’s not uncommon to see these expenses creep up toward 3 or 4% when you start rolling all this stuff together.

Barry: Because it’s fees on fees?

Dave: It’s fees on fees. I should point out, though, that USVC is the one that made a big splash lately because they’re basically saying the limit’s $500 — get your money in now. They’re structuring that as a bit more of an interval fund, where once a quarter they’re saying, “We’ll give 5% liquidity to people who want to get out.” That’s, again, a fairly common structure, although none of those things are written in stone. They can say they’re going to do that and then not do it, and there’s no recourse.

Barry: And USVC does not trade on any —

Dave: It won’t trade anywhere. It’s non-traded. So the only way you’ll ever get your money out of it is either they make a distribution because something big happened in the fund, or you sign up for one of these quarterly windows where you can get 5% of your money out.

Barry: So some of these are private and hold non-liquid assets. Some of these are public and hold public assets. Are there public versions of these that hold private assets?

Dave: Well, the equivalent to that would be something like USPE, which is the one coming from Tap. The idea there is that it’ll be trading on the exchange — no, it’s not an ETF, it’s still a closed-end fund, but it’ll be a traded closed-end fund. So it’ll have its big discounts.

The other version of this is you can take an ETF and use the 15% illiquid bucket that all mutual funds are technically allowed to have, and you can try to use that aggressively. There are ETFs doing that. XOVR is the big one — it has a 15% SpaceX chunk in it. Ron Baron’s fund, BRONB, has a big chunk of SpaceX in it right now. So there are more ETFs and mutual funds trying to do that, but it’s obviously fraught with peril. You don’t want to go too far down that road and then have a giant pile of redemptions you can’t meet.

Barry: So here’s the obvious question. USPE — or even better, Pershing Square PSUS with Bill Ackman — these funds convinced savvy institutional investors and others to put a bunch of money in. They launched at a couple of billion dollars. “Wait, I could buy me some Bill Ackman at a 20% discount.” How come more people don’t see this and say, “Oh, I get to buy a premier hedge fund manager at a discount to NAV”? What’s the disconnect? Why haven’t people themselves just said, “I want some of this”? Is the expectation that, hey, if you want to be in Pershing Square, that’s where all the good stuff has taken place, but the PSUS closed-end fund isn’t going to have the same juice?

Dave: Interestingly, part of the reason Ackman had such a hard time getting this capital raise done over the years was exactly that argument. People were like, “I want to be part of the management company. I don’t want to own this garbage fund.” So what they actually floated was the combo platter, where for every — I think it’s every four or five shares of the fund you get one share of —

Barry: One —

Dave: — of the management company, the big GP, the main vehicle.

Barry: So you’re both an LP and a GP. If this was a hedge fund, you’d be an LP and a GP at the same time. Which is a very clever way to do it. How much of the overall GP did Ackman allow outsiders to buy? Or is it just built into the fund?

Dave: It’s built into the structure of the fund. I don’t know exactly —

Barry: Because you’re not getting 20% of the GP.

Dave: Well, you’re certainly not getting a hundred percent of it.

Barry: You’re getting one out of — well, if you’re buying it, you’re only getting one out of five shares or whatever it is. But he could say, “Oh, we’re going to have a hundred million shares and I’m going to put a million into this,” or whatever the float is.

Dave: Right. This is part of the problem with these kinds of funds. You ask why people aren’t storming the gates to try to get into this thing — well, you don’t know that much about it. You’re not getting regular reporting; it’s not super transparent. You don’t really know what the marks are. Obviously if they’re only holding public securities, you can impute the marks yourself, that’s fine. But on anything that’s private, you’re just kind of guessing and taking their word for it.

So yeah, it’s trading at a 20% discount to what you think it’s worth. But is that really even what it’s worth? And how do you value the GP component of this in that 20% discount? So I think the combo platter of lack of transparency and lack of liquidity is enough to scare most rational investors out of something like this.

Barry: So those are the downsides. There obviously has to be an upside. If someone like Bill Ackman is saying, “I have an idea,” and $2 billion worth of smart money theoretically threw some cash into that — what’s the upside?

Dave: The upside is Bill Ackman could be right. He runs high-concentration, somewhat levered portfolios of, I don’t know, a dozen stocks. That’s a high-conviction bet. If he gets those dozen stocks right, he could absolutely blow away the market. I’ve fully acknowledged that there are investors out there —

Barry: And his track record over the years is not bad. Lights out, right?

Dave: Exactly.

Barry: Not necessarily consistent, but mostly pretty good years and a handful of spectacular ones.

Dave: Some flashes of genius, right? So that’s why people are buying into these things — because they believe, in this case for Pershing Square, in Ackman and his prowess and his access to insight, quote-unquote, that other people aren’t getting. In the case of something like USVC, I think what they’re counting on is, “Oh, those are the AngelList guys. They’re getting to see all of this deal flow from Silicon Valley way before everybody else. USVC is going to get these nice little slugs of whatever the next SpaceX or the next big IPO is way before anybody else.”

That’s not insane. I mean, I have some private investments of my own. I’ve chosen to be much more careful and pick exactly what I want to do, but I’m not going to sit here and tell people private investing is a terrible idea. Lots of people have made lots of money doing it. So that’s the allure: hey, USVC — once they finally let people’s money in and start investing, maybe they will in fact carry the whole tailwind of everything going on in Silicon Valley venture, and your $500 becomes $5,000. It’s not impossible.

Barry: Here’s the math on private investing that I think a lot of people overlook. The median fund does okay — doesn’t do great. You’re better off in the S&P. It’s expensive and illiquid versus the S&P. But a top-decile fund does really well — diversified, non-correlated, and very often outperforms the index. The problem is, unless you get into that — I’ll be generous and say top-quartile — fund, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. I love that expression. So given all of that, how do you think regulators should be treating this private exposure in these various public wrappers?

Dave: So my two big issues are liquidity and transparency. I think we should enforce the liquidity rules. Which means that if you’re sticking something in like an ETF, you should not be able to violate the 15% — if you cannot trade it and get a price on it intraday, it is not liquid, and you should not count it as liquid. So step one: we should actually enforce those liquidity rules.

Barry: Intraday meaning once a day, or anytime throughout the day?

Dave: Well, you’ve got to at least be able to do it once a day. And I would argue, holding an intraday-priced vehicle, you should probably be holding most of your assets in intraday-priced securities.

Barry: 85%.

Dave: 85%, right? So that seems pretty rational. That’s the liquidity side of it.

And then the transparency side. Look, the problem in private equity and private credit — as everybody who’s played in any of this knows — is that the marks don’t matter. We’ve all seen those pitch books that say, “Look, you should invest in privates. They’re so stable, they hardly ever go up or down.”

Barry: I love — Cliff Asness calls that “volatility laundering.” It’s a perfect phrase.

Dave: Right. So you’re taking what would obviously be wildly volatile assets, you’re marking them once a quarter, and you’re marking them based on a lower-vol metric — on what their comps did. So of course those are ridiculous and stupid marks. That would be the next thing I would focus on: independent valuation agents for anything that is going to touch the public hand. If you’re going to touch the 1940 Act, we should have independent verification, and we should at least publish valuation rules. That’s the other big one — they don’t tell you how they value any of these things. The board values whether or not your private thing is worth X or Y. I don’t like that. I would like to know the rules. Why do you think SpaceX is worth $185 instead of $500?

Barry: Really fascinating. Last question: five years from now, how do you think this public-private distinction — these public wrappers around private investments — I love the phrase “liquid alts.” It kind of reminds me of the George Carlin word routine: jumbo shrimp —

Dave: Military intelligence.

Barry: Right, exactly. That’s the exact routine. Listen, either it’s private and illiquid, or public and liquid. But private and liquid doesn’t really — at that point it might as well be public. It doesn’t make any sense. How do you think this distinction is going to show up in the minds of investors and/or regulators?

Dave: I don’t want to be Doomberg about this, but I feel fairly confident suggesting we’re going to have some event in the next couple of years that is going to pull the scales off our eyes around —

Barry: Haven’t we kind of had those sort of events already this year? We’ve had a bunch of privates kind of —

Dave: Oh no, very, very thin — like Blue Owl closing your BDC for redemptions. That’s course of business.

Barry: You’re talking not quite GFC, but in the same neighborhood?

Dave: Yeah, I think we’re going to have a few funds really have to either close — whether it’s a high-profile private equity fund unwinding, whether it’s some of the private credit stuff really coming home to roost. Initially it looks like we may have dodged some of that, like the private credit stuff. There was a lot of concern that that was going to blow up the world. We seem to be being a little more rational about that. On the private equity side, I think most of the money going into private equity is pretty high risk-tolerance money anyway. So until we actually cross that Rubicon of shoving this stuff in 401(k)s — which I think is still going to be a while out, I don’t think that’s happening tomorrow.

Barry: Good. I hope that’s very far out.

Dave: So I think we’ll have some high-profile blowups, but I think they will be good for investors in the sense that they will wake us up and we’ll be more skeptical — which is what’s happened with private credit. There’s not billions and billions and billions of dollars chasing private credit from retail right now. That’s a good thing. I think we dodged a bullet.

Barry: Well, there certainly were billions of dollars chasing it in ’24 and ’25. So to wrap up: for those of you interested in everything from liquid alts to interval funds to M&A funds to what have you — you have to be aware of the downside risks. These things tend to be expensive. They often trade at a discount, assuming they trade at all. They are not especially transparent. There is a lot of good faith in relying on management to tell you what these things are worth.

 

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Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At the Money: Blurring the Lines Between Public & Private Investments appeared first on The Big Picture.

Hope And Reality

Zero Hedge -

Hope And Reality

By Teeuwe Mevissen, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Since the start of the Iran war the market has had a tendency to view the likelihood of a peace agreement with a ‘glass half full’ attitude.

Once again, markets have found some comfort in encouraging remarks from both the US and Iran, even though both sides are making it clear that there are still major sticking points on critical issues.

US Secretary of State Rubio has suggested that there are “some goods signs” towards finding a resolution. This is despite Iran’s Supreme leader ordering that the country’s enriched uranium must not be sent abroad, which is a key objective of both the US and Israel. Rubio has also stated that any deal that involved Iran imposing tolls on shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be unacceptable. This statement comes on the heels of this week’s news that Iran is looking to set up a new “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” to exert control over a maritime zone in the area and that the country’s authorities are also discussing with Oman how to set up a permanent toll system. Amid the confusion over the degree of progress towards peace, Brent crude prices have ticked higher this morning, though they remain in the lower part of this week’s range.

Reflecting movements in oil prices, US treasury yields are also trading in the lower part of this week’s range, though they remain at elevated levels. While asset prices continue to take their cue from speculation regarding the length of time that the Strait of Hormuz may be closed, economic data are increasingly reflecting the impact that the supply shock is already having.

Yesterday’s release of French preliminary May PMI data showed a plunge in the composite number to 43.5 from 47.6 the previous month, with weakness evident in both the manufacturing and the services sectors. The composite number, which is a 66-month low, would usually be associated with recession.

According to S&P Global, firms cited higher fuel and energy costs as reasons for lower output, with manufacturing firms citing material shortages.

The German PMI data was less of a shock but with a composite number reading 48.6, the economy is continuing to show signs of contraction. While this morning’s German IFO release was a little better than expected, it remains close to a 5-year low.

Yesterday’s release of the spring forecasts from the European Commission reflected the growing pessimism regarding the economic toll of the Iran war. GDP growth in the EU is now projected to slow to 1.1% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.3 ppts from the autumn forecasting round.

Growth for the Eurozone this year is now projected to be just 0.9%, while price pressures have been revised higher. The EC’s forecast for inflation in the EU has been revised a full percentage point higher to 3.1% in 2026. The forecast for the Eurozone stands at 3% this year up from an autumn forecast of 1.9%.

The data highlight the conundrum for the ECB. Price pressures are of clear concern, but weak activity data question whether the ECB needs to hike rates as much as markets have been expecting to rein back demand in the face of the supply shock. This morning the market is priced for a little more than two 25 bps ECB rate hikes on a 6-month view. Rabobank has pencilled in just one for now.

How weakening economic activity will impact central bank decisions has been a theme in many parts of the G10 this week. The releases of softer than expected UK and Australian labor data earlier in the week had a noticeable impact on rate hike expectations in their respective markets. Weak UK retail sales data this morning have further shone the spotlight on growth risks.

Cost of living pressures have been highlighted by UK voters as a primary concern and PM Starmer’s leadership continues to hang by a shoestring. In an effort to grapple back some control, the (current) Labour party leadership have this week announced steps to ease pressure on household budgets. This includes extending a freeze on fuel duty, cutting VAT on some hospitality services over the summer, and granting a 12-month road tax holiday for hauliers.

The package of measures will be funded by bringing forward changes to how oil and gas companies are taxed on overseas earnings. UK Chancellor Reeves’ adherence to her fiscal rules have won her some credibility in the gilts markets. Concerns that a leadership challenge would result in a swing to the left of the party and bring more spending pledges have unsettled the gilts market this month, though comments earlier in the weeks from Manchester Mayor Burnham that he would maintain the fiscal rules if he led the country have provided some reassurance.

Burnham may be the bookies’ favorite for the next leader of the UK’s Labour party, but he must win a seat in parliament before announcing a challenge. The most likely date for the Makerfield by-election is June 28. Reform will be fighting hard to win that seat ahead of Burham.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 09:45

Trump Sending 5,000 Additional Troops To Poland, After Same Number Reduced From Germany

Zero Hedge -

Trump Sending 5,000 Additional Troops To Poland, After Same Number Reduced From Germany

President Trump announced in a post on Truth Social late Thursday that he will send 5,000 additional troops to Poland, which has raised a lot of questions and introduced some level of confusion, given this is precisely the same number of troops the Pentagon has announced it plans to pull out of Germany.

"Based on the successful Election of the now President of Poland, Karol Nawrocki, who I was proud to Endorse, and our relationship with him, I am pleased to announce that the United States will be sending an additional 5,000 Troops to Poland," Trump wrote.

Weeks ago, the White House began threatening a significant and historic force reduction from Germany, following Berlin officials' repeat criticisms of the US-Israeli war against Iran. This was initially presented in media reports as part of a broader drawdown from Europe, but now it appears US forces are just being shifted around, and with 5,000 to be placed closer to Russia.

All of this was first reported and confirmed by Punchbowl News' Briana Reilly, citing the words of House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL)...

Rogers indicated that the 5,000 new troops for Poland will be in addition to the delayed deployment of 4,000 US Army soldiers to Poland.

As it stands, reports from a week ago suggest that the 4,000 has been paused or even canceled, with Pentagon commanders cited in media reports saying they were "blindsided" by the decision.

Some of this surprise and frustration was echoed in public, with Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, the former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, stating that the Army’s role in Europe "is all about deterring the Russians, protecting America’s strategic interests and assuring allies."

But it remains that "now a very important asset that was coming to be part of that deterrence is gone." He added: "The Poles certainly have never criticized President Trump, and they do all the things that good allies are supposed to do. And yet, this happens."

Trump's announcement that he's sending a separate contingency of 5,000 to Poland could be an effort to smooth over Pentagon fears, while keeping European allies happy, and seeking to demonstrate the US is not 'backing down' from Russia. 

Germany itself can't complain too loudly either, given it too has long been worried about Russia, and now more US forces are en route to NATO's 'eastern flank'. This move might have even been long in planning, with Washington trying to spin everything in terms of punishment and reward actions.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 09:15

Great Again: Blue-Haired Liberals Seen Enjoying Beautifully Restored DC Park Fountain

Zero Hedge -

Great Again: Blue-Haired Liberals Seen Enjoying Beautifully Restored DC Park Fountain

Authored by Steve Watson via modernity.news

Decline is a choice

Just weeks ago, Meridian Hill Park - also known as Malcolm X Park - stood as a graffiti-scarred reminder of neglect, overrun by vagrants, trash, and decay. Today, its iconic 13-basin cascading fountain flows powerfully once more, drawing families, dog walkers, and even those with blue hair who once might have sneered at such efforts.

The transformation is undeniable: clean pathways, flowing water, and people reclaiming public space in the heart of Washington, D.C.

It's the direct result of President Trump's determination to restore the nation's capital ahead of America's 250th anniversary. As one viral video captured, locals are visibly enjoying the revived park where needles and encampments once dominated.

President Trump has been clear about his personal investment in these projects. In a statement shared widely, he detailed the progress:

"So far, over 20 have been revitalized, and fixed, looking better than the day they were built, many years ago. We have some left, some were in very bad and difficult condition, but we will get them all done in a short time. D.C. is being reawakened as to its Beauty, Elegance, and Charm."

He continued on the grand prize:

"The "Granddaddy" of them all will be The Reflecting Pool - 2,500 feet long, and almost 200 feet wide, the biggest such structure ever built, but also, the most troublesome for many Administrations in that, from the time it was built in 1922, it essentially never really worked! It leaked from all angles, drew dirt, grime, and decay, was often filled with garbage, and wasn't at all representative of the two Great Monuments it connects - The Lincoln Memorial, and the Washington Monument."

"I, together with Doug Burgum and the Department of Interior, am fixing it the right and proper way - It will last for many decades into the future," Trump added.

Trump further stated, "The Fountains are now working, and look magnificent as the Park is being entirely rebuilt, using far better and more beautiful materials than originally used. As the Entrance to the White House, it's got to be spectacular - There is no other way! Again, check out what's going on at Lafayette Park."

The fountain revival aligns with Trump's revived executive order promoting classical architecture for federal buildings - an order Biden scrapped in 2021 but Trump reinstated to prioritize beauty, tradition, and civic pride over modernist ugliness.

Meridian Hill Park's cascading fountain, one of North America's longest, had been dry for years. Now it cascades with renewed vigor, part of a $54 million initiative restoring seven major D.C. fountains.

The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool - long plagued by leaks and grime - is undergoing a major overhaul with upgraded materials and a striking "American flag blue" finish for enhanced reflection and durability.

As Trump noted, Lafayette Park, right at the White House entrance, is also being fully rebuilt with superior materials. Additional fountains and public spaces across D.C. are in the pipeline, all timed for the 250th celebrations.

The most striking images show everyday Americans - including those who might not vote Trump - relaxing by the flowing water. Blue Haired liberals were even spotted enjoying the surroundings.

Crime in D.C. is dropping, encampments are cleared, and families are returning. Beauty and order draw people in; neglect repels them. Trump's approach proves that enforcing basic standards and investing in public spaces benefits everyone, regardless of politics.

Leftist critics can fume about "wasted" money or "gentrification," but the footage tells the truth: people love safe, clean, beautiful spaces. They always have. Decades of Democrat-led decay turned the capital into a embarrassment. Trump is reversing it.

The fountains are flowing, the parks are alive, and the capital is reawakening.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 08:55

Regulators Circle StanChart After CEO's AI Layoff Comments Spark Uproar

Zero Hedge -

Regulators Circle StanChart After CEO's AI Layoff Comments Spark Uproar

It has been a tumultuous week for Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters.

Winters appeared out of touch with the growing anxiety surrounding mounting white-collar AI-related job losses. He described the bank's AI adoption push as "not cost-cutting," but rather as "replacing lower-value human capital with financial and investment capital."

Such language ignited a firestorm for the CEO and the bank, and by the end of the week, regulatory scrutiny had descended on the firm.

Reuters reports that authorities in Hong Kong and Singapore have pressed the bank for clarity on Winters' comments and the scope of upcoming AI-related layoffs.

On Tuesday, StanChart began labor restructuring to cut 15% of its corporate roles (about 7,800 jobs) by 2030 as part of a broader efficiency push amid the adoption of AI.

Hong Kong authorities asked StanChart whether AI was being used as a pretext to reduce headcount.

By midweek, Winters scrambled into damage control following the "lower-value human capital" remarks. Early today, he apologized for his "choice of words" in a LinkedIn post.

"For that, I am sorry. I am therefore showing below a verbatim transcript of what I actually said, which I hope allows for a better understanding of the important point I was raising..."

Here's the transcript:"

“For example, this new core banking system in Hong Kong, which is a major, major accomplishment. This is not an everyday thing. It happens once in 40 years. And when it goes wrong, it's a disaster. It did not; it was practically perfect. That was a two and a half year programme, to get that right. The people that were gonna be affected, who were very important for helping us get to the right answer, knew that they were gonna be affected, and we began reskilling them at the earliest possibility. We're not long on talent in the markets where we operate, because these markets are growing fast. So the people that want to reskill, that want to carry on, we're giving every opportunity to reposition. And the people that say, yeah, you know, I've done my bit, I'm ready to do something else. I take a package at the end of the application migration. So this isn't, it's not cost cutting. It's replacing, in some cases, lower-value human capital with the financial and investment capital we're putting in. But almost always, with good clear notice going forward."

Beyond StanChart, corporate America is firing engineers and other white-collar workers as AI adoption accelerates. This era will likely be remembered as the great "white-collar purge," and the response may be continued backlash toward data centers.

Meta Platforms began firing 8,000 workers earlier this week, while leaked audio of CEO Mark Zuckerberg described how AI is monitoring highly skilled employees. According to X user Official Layoff, who leaked the audio: "AI is replacing the contractor. Then the employee trains the AI. Then the AI replaces the employee."

Take a look at Bloomberg story count data for "ChatGPT" and "layoffs" ...

Labor-market disruption for white-collar workers has arrived with the rise of AI adoption. In 2023, Goldman detailed just how many jobs AI may eliminate. That number is absolutely alarming.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 08:35

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