The post It’s Running Out of Workers Day at the Washington Post! appeared first on CEPR.

 

 

From 2008 through 2022, the 10-year Treasury yield was never above 3.25%; it spent nearly all of 2019–21 under 2%, while the 30-year bottomed at ~1% in March 2020.

What an amazing opportunity to refinance debt at ultra-low rates!

But not every institutional debtor is that savvy. Torsten Slok reminds us how much savvier Corporate America was than the US Government, including Congress, the Treasury Department, and even many “think” tanks.

As Slok observes:

“Corporate net interest payments have fallen to 0.4% of GDP because firms locked in record-low fixed rates during the pandemic. The US government did not extend the maturity of its debt outstanding when interest rates were close to zero and now pays 3.6% of GDP in net interest (chart below).”

This has been one of my biggest pet peeves for the past few decades. 

When presented with a once-in-a-generation opportunity, there was an array of truly ignorant, foolish, or just outright false reasons not to make the carrying costs of long-term debt much cheaper. Treasury nominally lengthened the term of its debt, post-GFC and post-COVID. But it ignored the opportunity to issue 30-, 50-, or 100-year debt. That kind of long-term fixed-rate funding at historic lows only comes along once or twice in a generation.

Treasury did make some minor extensions of duration: The weighted average maturity (WAM) went from ~48 months in 2008 to ~64 months in 2012; by 2019, it was ~70 months — the longest duration since 2001. But issuing truly long-term debt, such as the 30-year or, heaven forbid, the 50/100 year — was off the table.

Why?

Some of the excuses were laughable then, but these three are downright silly now:

– “We do not time the market”
(Geithner, Yellen, Ramanathan, GAO, Office of Debt Management)

– “There isn’t enough demand”
(Mnuchin, Yellen, Lew, Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee)

– “Rates will stay low”
(Summers, Blanchard, Furman and Mnuchin)

It was apparent then to anyone who looked closely; today, it’s an utterly obvious missed opportunity.

 

 

Again, this is not hindsight  bias. As the list below, starting in 2013, shows, this was an obvious opportunity –one that was blown by all the usual fools.

 

 

Refinancing America’s Debt:
Fix infrastructure on the cheap while you still can (July 12, 2013)

Do We Need a 50-Year Bond? (May 12, 2014)

The Bonds That Can Cure America’s Ills (March 19, 2015)

Time for a 50-Year U.S. Treasury Bond (May 19, 2016)

Cost of Financing US Deficits Falls (December 18, 2020)

The Greatest Missed Opportunity of Our Lifetimes (October 23, 2023)

A Historic Missed Opportunity (June 3, 2025)

What’s Upsetting the Bond Market? (August 25, 2026)

 

Sources:
A Missed Opportunity: The Treasury Did Not Term Out Its Debt When Interest Rates Were Near Zero
Torsten Slok
Apollo, September 07, 2026

The Federal Government’s Debt Is Growing Faster Than the Economy. What Does that Mean for You?
GAO, June 11, 2026.

 

The post Corporate vs Treasury Debt Duration appeared first on The Big Picture.

My Two-for-Tuesday morning reads:

• Little Tobacco Moment Meta Wins. Our “Big Tobacco moment” ended with Meta’s shareholders richer, competitors weaker, and its business model intact. We’ve been played, again. ​Scott Galloway on the Meta settlement — 47 states and DC, up to $17.1 billion in penalties, no admission of wrongdoing. “We’ve been played, again.” (Scott Galloway)

​• For Many Individual Traders, Prediction Markets Are Hot — and Crypto Is Not: Traders are leaving crypto — bitcoin recently around $79,000 — to bet on sports, elections, and Fed rate decisions instead. Traders are spending more time and money betting on sports, elections and the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions (Wall Street Journal)

• Why We Can’t Get Enough Juicy Art Heist Stories. In these kinds of stories, the main characters usually have some abstract motive to distinguish them from common crooks. Mine was a question that’s been bothering me more than usual of late: How can a country that’s world famous for philistinism care so much about possessing art—care to the point where the people are willing to spend billions of dollars on beautiful objects and billions more on entertainment about stealingthem? It’s as though a nation of teetotalers chooses, year after year, to hang out in bars. ​(Art In America)

Spain Got a Head Start on Renewables — Now It Needs a Battery Revolution. Today, renewables account for about 60% of electricity on the Spanish grid, compared with about 50% across the European Union and one-third globally. That bold bet has lowered Spain’s power bills — which are now cheaper than they were before the latest Middle East conflict or the invasion of Ukraine — and put the country on track to meet its 2030 renewable targets. Spain is both ahead of the clean-power curve and the fastest-growing major economy in Europe, proof that deploying green energy at massive scale isn’t at odds with growth. Bloomberg on the country whose wind industry was once so low-tech that a broken turbine blade meant calling in a repairman — and what its grid needs next. (Bloomberg)

​• Tech Websites Remove Articles After Failing to Verify Journalists Exist: Rob Waugh on the prolific crypto writers who appear not to be people. Press Gazette raises questions about four more profilic tech writers who cover world of crypto. (Press Gazette)

• A Start-Up Called Nothing Has Raised $450 Million. It’s Coming for the iPhone. AI dollars have crowded out consumer tech — VC deals in the category have been cut in half since the 2021 peak near 3,000 — but one phone maker is still swinging. It’s Coming for the iPhone. Venture capital funding for consumer tech has stalled as funds shift to artificial intelligence. That makes the story of Nothing, a start-up maker of phones and audio gear, all the more surprising. (Barron’s) see also Why does it even matter if SoftBank’s an investment holding company? Toby Nangle on the classification question with real consequences. (Financial Times)

• This company has built a solar car. I took it for a drive. Test-driving a car coated in solar panels gave me a preview of a future without gas pumps or charging cables. Michael J. Coren test-drives the Aptera along the California coast, passing gas stations while the sun fills his tank for free. (Washington Post)

​• Maria Bartiromo’s Downfall at an Increasingly Cautious Fox News: Benjamin Mullin on the network pulling one of the last hosts whose Dominion coverage drew the expensive defamation suit. The network this week took Maria Bartiromo off the air, pulling one of the last hosts whose coverage of Dominion Voting Systems drew an expensive defamation lawsuit. (New York Times)

• ‘I don’t chase the dollar. I never did’: the astonishing hidden life of Mr T. He grew up in the ghetto, became a global superstar – then gave it all up. Why did he step away from the spotlight?  Simon Hattenstone meets the 74-year-old ahead of a new Netflix documentary — late, but making clear this is not an apology: “God comes first in all my life.” He grew up in the ghetto, became a global superstar – then gave it all up. Why did he step away from the spotlight? (The Guardian)

• The Pro Tennis Wage Gap, Explained: The history of tennis is the history of wealth — in 2025 the average US Open ticket ran $529, up 18% in a year, for the privilege of watching two Rolex ambassadors volley. How the wealthy perception of tennis has masked the exploitative pay practices of its players for decades. (Strung)

Video of the day: The ‘Ghost’ Creators Hijacking YouTube’s Algorithm & America’s Divided Politics

 

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business this week with William McNabb, former CEO and Chairman of the Vanguard Group from 2007-17. He is also an advisor to Venrock, and was an investor and advisor to Altruist, which was just sold to VG for $2 billion.

Private Equity’s Zombie Problem

Source: Pitchbook

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Tuesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Bond Selloff Isn't Fiscal Armageddon, It's The End Of A Decade Of Financial Repression; Deutsche Bank

Authored by Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank global head of macro research,

The latest global bond sell-off has revived the idea that markets are fretting over unsustainable public finances. As concerned as I am by this issue in the longer term, the recent bond market weakness at the moment should be seen more as a continuation of the long normalisation from the historic anomaly of the 2010s.

That was a decade of financial repression with central banks buying trillions in government debt, benchmark policy rates sitting near zero, and sovereign borrowing costs held down for years. Had you been on a desert island for a couple of decades, the level of yields today would look perfectly normal at the end of your sabbatical from the world, not at crisis levels.

At Deutsche Bank, our house view has consistently been in recent years that yields would rise due to heavy government issuance, the retreat of quantitative easing programmes of bond buying by central banks and inflation levels that have been persistently higher and more volatile than the pre-pandemic period. In the US, inflation has now been above the Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target for more than five years.

There is also some positive news that has supported higher yields. Global growth has held up better than most expected since the conflict with Iran began. US nominal GDP growth in the second quarter was 6.6 per cent year on year, which, outside the Covid-19 bounceback period, was the highest level since 2005. Clearly, part of this reflects higher energy prices and inflation, but there is no doubt that real growth is also holding up, partly thanks to the continuing AI boom. This has also increased corporate debt supply, which has competed with government bonds for investor demand in recent months. European growth, meanwhile, is also performing better than many thought possible in the face of an all-too-familiar energy shock for the continent.

And make no mistake, fiscal concerns are real and higher borrowing costs potentially worsen debt arithmetic, especially if growth fades.

The big shift, though, is that the equilibrium rate for bond yields is higher than markets became accustomed to in the ultra-loose era.

This has raised understandable concern, but one thing has been under-reported: returns for investors are starting to stabilise and, in many cases, have been positive over recent months and years.

This has been a welcome change from the early 2020s, when low starting yields offered no protection from the bear market. Rolling five- and 10-year total returns are still around their lowest on record across many government bond markets. However, the worst of the negative-return period is probably behind us.

Over the past year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return index delivered a positive return even as 10-year yields rose by about 0.60 percentage points. From current levels, the 10-year yield would need to rise to roughly 5.5 per cent over the next year, or 6.4 per cent over two years, before total returns turned negative. An investor who bought 10-year Treasuries at the October 2023 yield peak of 4.99 per cent would now have a total return of more than 16 per cent. It is a useful reminder of how much starting yield now matters.

The UK provides an even clearer example, given the constant negative headlines. Ten-year gilt yields are now about 0.65 percentage points above the peaks reached during the 2022 mini-Budget crisis. Yet the broad gilt index has returned roughly 12 per cent since those crisis highs. There hasn’t been any prolonged period of negative returns in gilts over those four years.

This does not mean the secular adjustment is complete. Outside of a material downgrade to growth expectations or an external shock, the forces encouraging yields to move upwards are unlikely to disappear, but at least we’re in the ballpark of normal again. Over the past 100 years, a period with regular and large swings in prices, inflation has averaged 3 per cent in the US and 4 per cent in the UK — a higher level than that seen since 1990 but lower than current long-dated yields.

After years in which returns depended heavily on capital gains, more normal levels of yields are again providing income that can compound over time, which is helping to cushion volatility and steadily reward patience. The pressures will remain, and it’s hard to see spectacular returns, especially in real terms, but at least bonds have become bonds again, and investors should bear this in mind when the next inevitable bad headline comes through.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 06:30

The Exodus Continues... Britain's 3rd Largest Taxpayer Escapes To Greece

Britain’s highest taxpayers have been drifting offshore since the non-dom regime was scrapped in April 2025 and inheritance tax was extended to worldwide assets.

This shift is already visible on the Sunday Times lists: six of the 2026 Tax List’s top 100 (including Revolut’s Nik Storonsky) had left in the previous year, the compiler noted that one in nine names on that list were no longer UK-resident, and the companion Rich List dropped dozens of foreign billionaires while recording a sharp rise in British nationals now based in Dubai, Switzerland and Monaco.

But, the latest news is likely the most disturbing to the increasingly socialist government as the UK's 3rd largest taxpayer - hedge fund founder Chris Rokos - is set to leave.

 The star trader paid a stunning £330 million ($447 million) in taxes last year...

That's one hell of a hole for Burnham and his buddies to fill.

As Bloomberg reports, Rokos is the latest in a string of high-profile financiers and business leaders that have opted to leave.

Since winning the general election in 2024, Labour has targeted wealth with taxes on non-domiciled residents, inheritance on family farms and businesses, private equity and private school fees.

At her last budget, former chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced a tax on homes worth more than £2 million.

With a net worth of about $4 billion according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Rokos is among the UK’s most prominent figures in finance.

The Rokos Capital Management founder is switching his residency to Greece, people with knowledge of the arrangement said.

Rokos will also open an office in Athens as part of the move, one of the people said, asking not to be identified because the details are private.

Greece offers a 15-year high-net-worth investor regime.

Italy operates a similar 15-year system, but after recent increases, it has set the flat tax at €300,000 on foreign-sourced income.

Greece has also sought to lure fund managers and private equity executives, adopting new tax rules this summer designed to prevent double taxation.

If the highest taxpayers keep leaving - as Rokos’s reported move to Greece underlines - Labour’s bet that abolishing non-doms and tightening inheritance tax would raise more money starts to look fragile, because a thin slice of people already supplies a large share of income-tax receipts.

The government then faces an awkward choice: accept a smaller tax base and tighter budgets, or raise rates on the mobile and immobile alike and risk accelerating the outflow it is trying to tax.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 04:15

Why Won't China Cut Ukraine Off From Drone-Related Sales?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Indefinitely perpetuating the Ukrainian Conflict through these means indefinitely delays the full implementation of the US' planned "Pivot (back) to (East) Asia", can lead to Russia selling its natural resource wealth to China at bargain-basement prices, and maintains China's "active neutrality".

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) referenced the EU's summertime disbursement of the first €1 billion to Ukraine for drone procurement out of the €6 billion promised for this program in an article late last month about how "Ukraine's Drone War Exposes An Uncomfortable Reliance On China". They drew attention to the carve-out allowing Ukraine to purchase Chinese parts with these funds, ergo the politically incorrect observation back then that "The EU Plans To Pay China To Help Ukraine Kill Russians".

RFE/RL reported that "While Kyiv has cut back on the purchase of ready-made drones from China, components such as motors, lithium batteries, and fiberoptics are still in high demand." Additionally, "In the first six months of 2026, imports of Chinese parts had already reached around 76 percent of the total recorded for the previous year." They also cited a Ukrainian report which claimed that "38 percent of the value of drone components imported by Ukraine in the first half of 2025 came from China."

The purpose of their piece appears to be to instill a sense of urgency in Ukraine and the West alike to radically ramp up domestic drone production in order to reduce what one of their cited experts described as Ukraine's "hostile interdependence" on China. They explained that "Beijing remains Kyiv's largest trading partner, while Ukraine is a key supplier of agricultural goods to China." That's true, and it's one of the reasons why China won't cut Ukraine off from drone-related sales, but there's more to it.

While Sino-Russo ties are better than at anytime in history, it was suspected as far back as early 2023 that "China Doesn't Want Anyone To Win In Ukraine", the reason being that a supposedly manageable forever war would indefinitely delay the full implementation of the US' planned "Pivot (back) to (East) Asia". Moreover, resource-rich Russia could become disproportionately dependent on China, thus leading to Moscow selling its natural wealth to Beijing at bargain-basement prices.

In pursuit of this cynical end, China has simultaneously played an irreplaceable role in providing Ukraine with drones, parts, and fiber optics (even if only indirectly through intermediaries like apologists have speculated) while serving as an irreplaceable valve from sanctions pressure for Russia. Ukraine is therefore able to keep pace with Russia's military-technical advancements, the Russian economy avoids the crisis that the West sought to catalyze through sanctions, and China maintains its "active neutrality".

The last point refers to China actively helping Ukraine and Russia, thus making it neutral in the sense of not taking either side. China financially profits from Ukraine's drone-related purchases, its economy continues growing due to the large-scale import of heavily discounted Russian energy, and it relatively reduces the overall Western pressure upon it by proving that it's not secretly "allied" with Russia. This policy, for whatever one might think about its merits, indisputably contributed to prolonging the conflict.

Had China cut Ukraine off from its drone-related sales in the spirit of its "no-limits" partnership with Russia that was declared several weeks before the start of special operation, then Russia might have attained more of its stated objectives in the conflict by now, if not outright achieved maximum victory. The US' military and intelligence support for Ukraine is more important than China's drone-related sales, but since there's no end to US support in sight, Russia should try to get China to finally cut Ukraine off.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 03:30

Europe's Auto Bloodbath Deepens: Jaguar Land Rover To Axe 4,000 Jobs After VW Targets 50,000 More Job Cuts

Europe's industrial base faces yet another setback, with Bloomberg reporting that Jaguar Land Rover plans to cut 4,000 jobs over the next two years. Britain's largest carmaker is confronting intensifying Chinese competition and adding to the broadening wave of planned and ongoing layoffs across European automakers.

The job cuts represent about 10% of Jaguar Land Rover's global workforce and is part of a $2.3 billion savings plan, Chief Executive Officer P B Balaji said Monday. The layoffs are not expected to begin immediately.

The workforce restructuring comes as the struggling automaker faces a sharp deterioration in earnings. Revenue fell 10% in the latest quarter, while pretax profit plunged 69% to 109 million pound sterling. 

On Monday, CEO P B Balaji said, "The automotive industry faces significant challenges, with technological change amidst intense competition and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty."

It's not just a BYD Motors invasion of Europe that is pressuring Jaguar Land Rover. As the Tata-owned automaker warned, pressures are developing from several directions. Higher tariffs have complicated business in the US, its largest market. A fire at a key parts supplier and disruption from the Middle East conflict have compounded the damage caused by the cyberattack.

In recent weeks, Europe's automotive industry has continued its death spiral, with news that Volkswagen pushed ahead with its plan to eliminate another 50,000 jobs, adding to soaring job losses across the industry.

A sustained downturn in Europe's automotive industry raises risks across the broader industrial base. Lower vehicle output would weaken demand for steel, aluminum, glass, chemicals, semiconductors, batteries, and other components, putting pressure on supplier margins and investment. If prolonged, that weakness could trigger additional production line closures and worker losses. That spiral appears to be already underway, eroding manufacturing capabilities that also support defense production.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 02:45

Greenland's Icecap Grew This Year

Authored by Paul Homewood via The Daily Sceptic,

Greenland's icecap is melting away thanks to global warming, at least that is what we are told. According to the EU's European State of the Climate 2025 Report, the ice sheet lost 139 Gt last year. They say that is equivalent to about 1.5 times the amount of ice stored in all the glaciers in the European Alps, and raised global mean sea level by 0.4 mm. (A gigatonne is one billion tonnes.) Since 1972, losses have amounted to 5,747 Gt. The rate of ice loss has increased by around five times since the 1980s and is expected to continue increasing beyond the end of the century.

These amounts sound terrifying, which is of course the object of the exercise - at least until you realise that at present rates it would take Greenland 27,000 years to melt away.

I am always suspicious when 'scientists' present trends since the 1970s, a time when the Earth had gone through three decades of cooling and there were genuine fears among both scientists and world leaders about the return of the Little Ice Age. I am even more suspicious when I discover that official data about the Greenland ice sheet is publicly available back to 1840.

In 2021, a peer-reviewed study calculated the annual changes in the ice sheet mass balance since 1840. (The heavy black line represents the net changes, which is of relevance to this discussion):

The graph confirms that the ice sheet has been losing mass since the 1980s. But crucially, we can see that the melting began around 1900. During the period 1920 to 1970, ice loss was running at similar levels to the last three decades - this is hardly surprising, as temperature records across Greenland show that it was just as 'warm' then as now. In between times, there was a sharp decline in temperatures in the 1970s and 80s.

In other words, this is not a new phenomenon, as we are expected to believe. It is part of a much longer process, which began long before so-called man-made global warming began.

Scientists have long established, with the help of ice cores and other evidence, that the 19th Century was probably the coldest era in Greenland since the Ice Age. During warm eras, such as the Middle Ages, Roman times and earlier millennia, the ice cap was smaller than it is now. Any reduction in the ice cap in the last century must be viewed as part of these longer-term cycles.

Ice mass data is still regularly published and provisional data is now available for the year ending August 2026 - Greenland ice data is normally presented by "hydro-year", September to August.

Since the 2021 study, ice loss has continued to slow down and is back to 1920s levels. The 2025/26 season actually saw a small increase of 6 Gt in ice mass. Greenland never really had a summer this year. Whereas the summer melt usually begins in early June, cold, snowy weather persisted well into July. As a result, summer melt was around 200 Gt less than normal.

It is worth noting that the poor summer in Greenland was part of the wider jet stream setup, which brought our hot summer. While we had a summer dominated by high-pressure systems, the rainy weather stayed out in the Atlantic, battering Greenland.

6 Gt is of course a tiny amount, given the massive uncertainty in how these things are calculated. There is no way to directly measure ice cap changes; instead, the numbers are calculated from computer models fed with data such as precipitation and temperature. The experts accept that they can often be wrong by as much as 100 Gt.

Nevertheless, it is abundantly clear that Greenland's icecap is doing just fine. It is still much larger than it has been for most of the last 10,000 years and, if it is shrinking at all, it is doing so no faster than a century ago.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/08/2026 - 02:00

Central Asia Is Escaping The 'Backyard' Label

Authored by Ziaulhaq Tanin via RealClearWorld,

Three decades after their independence, Central Asia is still often viewed through outdated geopolitical lenses - a region once called "Russia's backyard" and more recently as an arena of competition among Russia, China, and the West. Yet this familiar narrative no longer captures the region's strategic reality. Central Asian states are increasingly using great-power rivalry not simply to navigate external pressure, but to expand their own choices and strategic room for maneuver.

This transformation is driven not by a single event but by the convergence of several trends: the war in Ukraine, new connectivity corridors, China's growing role, deeper engagement of Europe, Türkiye, and the Gulf states, and regional efforts to reduce dependence on a single power. Together, these developments are reshaping the traditional framework of regional politics and creating new space for Central Asia to redefine its position.

The central question is no longer who will dominate Central Asia, but whether its states can turn this changing geopolitical environment into greater strategic autonomy. This article argues that the region is moving from the logic of "backyard" toward that of a "crossroads" - a transition shaped not by the departure of major powers, but by the growing agency of Central Asia itself.

The Ukraine War and the End of Geopolitical Monopoly

For decades, Central Asia was viewed largely through the lens of Russian influence. The legacy of the Russian Empire and then the Soviet Union created deep security, economic, and cultural ties between Moscow and the region - ties that endured after independence through institutions such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Yet today's transformation does not reflect the collapse of these connections; it marks the end of an era in which a single power could define Central Asia's strategic trajectory.

The war in Ukraine did not initiate this shift, but it accelerated existing trends. Even before 2022, regional states were diversifying foreign relations, reducing traditional dependencies, and seeking alternative routes of connectivity. The war exposed more clearly the risks of relying on a single partner or corridor, prompting governments to reshape their security, trade, and connectivity policies around a wider range of options.

For years, Central Asia faced a geopolitical paradox: despite its central position in Eurasia, access to the global economy depended largely on Soviet-era networks. These historical, infrastructural, economic, and security links reinforced Russia's position as the region's dominant external actor.

The war did not dismantle this structure, but it revealed the costs of dependence on traditional routes. Western sanctions on Russia and disruptions to established trade corridors pushed regional governments to pursue alternatives. The central question became whether its geography would remain a historical constraint or become a source of strategic choice.

This shift is most visible in the growing importance of the Middle Corridor, linking China and Europe through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye. More than a trade route, it offers alternative to Soviet-era connectivity and allows Central Asian states to turn geography into a strategic asset. Kazakhstan, with its location and natural resources, stands at the center of this transformation, illustrating how the region is increasingly using great-power competition to expand its own choices.

At the same time, competition around Central Asia has broadened. China has expanded its presence through investment and infrastructure, Russia remains a security actor, while the West, Türkiye, and Gulf states have strengthened their roles in energy, trade, and strategic resources. The wider external engagement has increased regional room for maneuver, but it has also made balancing competing interests more demanding.

From Balance of Power to Balance of Options

In Central Asia, independence has never meant complete freedom from great-power influence. Geography, history, and economic ties have made such separation unrealistic. The challenge has therefore not been to sever these ties, but to prevent any single partnership from becoming source of decisive dependency. In this context, independence is increasingly defined not by distance from any power, but by the ability to preserve multiple options and manage competing relationships.

This shift is evident in the foreign policy of Central Asian states. Rather than choosing between major powers, they are using the simultaneous presence of different actors to expand their strategic room for maneuver. This is a form of practical autonomy: not on isolation from great powers, but the ability to engage with several partners at once.

The region's transformation also extends beyond the traditional Russia - China - West triangle. Gulf states have become increasingly active in Central Asia through investments in energy, infrastructure, transport, mining, and trade, with the United Arab Emirates emerging as an important partner in renewable energy, logistics, and infrastructure projects. For the Central Asian states, these ties offer opportunities to diversify economic partnerships and attract new investment; for Gulf countries, the region's strategic location and role in the emerging Eurasian connectivity routes have made it increasingly important.

Kazakhstan is a prominent example of this approach. Despite its long border with Russia and deep historical ties to Moscow, Astana has expanded its economic ties with China while strengthening cooperation with Europe and other partners. Its goal is not to replace one partner with another, but to maintain diversified relationships to increase strategic flexibility and reduces overdependence on any single power.

Uzbekistan has followed a similar path since 2016, gradually opening its economy and pursuing a more active regional diplomacy. Tashkent's has sought to broaden cooperation with multiple partners including Russia, China, Europe, and the United States while increasing its strategic flexibility.

The experience of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan shows that Central Asia's transformation is not only a result of changing great-power behavior. It also depends on whether regional states can turn this evolving geopolitical space into bargaining power.

Beyond Geopolitics: The Return of Identity

For decades, Central Asia was largely defined by narratives shaped outside the region itself - from the legacy of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union to contemporary perspectives based on great-power competition. Today, however, regional states are increasingly seeking to define their history and place in the world beyond the lens of external powers. This shift shows that the struggle over Central Asia's position is not taking place only through trade routes and security calculations; it is also unfolding at the level of the historical and political identity.

Central Asia's departure from the logic of "backyard" is visible not only in the change in its foreign ties, but also in efforts by regional states to redefine their historical standing. Since independence - and especially in recent years - the Central Asian states have gradually tried to adjust their national narratives beyond the frameworks left over from the Soviet era.

From Tajikistan's emphasis on its Persian heritage, to strengthening cultural ties among Turkic-speaking states, and Uzbekistan's renewed engagement with its historical past, this trend shows that the competition over the region's future is not limited to economics and security. It is also a competition over narratives, and identity. Ultimately, it shows that Central Asian states are trying to define their status based on historical experience and their own interests.

Central Asia's Future: Sphere of Influence or Hub of Connectivity?

For decades, Central Asia's geography was seen as a constraint - a region caught between great powers, whit its security, economic, and connectivity shaped largely by external interests. Today, that same geography is becoming a strategic asset, expanding the region's choices and influence.

Central Asian governments are no longer merely adapting to geopolitical changes; they are using it to widen their strategic options. More diverse partnerships and new connectivity corridors have expanded their diplomatic flexibility.

Great-power competition has not disappeared. Russia remains the principal security actor, China the leading economic partner, while west, Türkiye and the Gulf states continue expanding their presence. What has changed is that no single relationship can define the region's future. Geography alone is insufficient; without stronger institutions and independent decision-making, new routes of connectivity could simply produce new form of dependence.

Ultimately, Central Asia's transformation is not about replacing one dominant power with another, but about expanding regional agency. Russia, China, and other actors will remain influential, yet no single power is likely to define the region's future alone. The region's states are turning geography into leverage - not to escape power competition, but to shape the conditions in which they have more choices.

Ziaulhaq Tanin is a University lecturer, researcher, and analyst specializing in international security, regionalism, and foreign policy.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 22:15

Japan's NEC Halts Quantum Computer Project After Decades Of Research

NEC has ended its effort to develop a working quantum computer, reportedly deciding that the project would take too long to deliver an acceptable return on investment, according to a new report by Nikkei.

The move represents a significant change in direction for a company that has been involved in quantum computing research for more than three decades.

NEC was among the earliest companies to pursue the technology, beginning its research in the 1990s and achieving a major breakthrough in 1999 with the first demonstration of superconducting qubits. Those qubits remain one of the principal approaches used in quantum computer development today. Despite that early lead, NEC discontinued work on its own physical quantum computer at the end of March.

Nikkei reported that the company will continue pursuing quantum-related technologies and services, including quantum annealing, which is used to find efficient solutions to complex optimization problems. NEC also plans to expand services that use conventional computers to simulate quantum computing.

The shift suggests that management sees a more immediate commercial opportunity in applying quantum-related techniques than in funding the lengthy and expensive development of its own hardware.

NEC’s retreat comes as other major players continue investing heavily in the field. IBM and Google remain prominent competitors in the United States, while China is advancing quantum computing through coordinated public- and private-sector efforts.

In Japan, Fujitsu is continuing its research and signed an agreement in August with an Australian university and government research institution to collaborate on quantum-related projects.

The industry has nevertheless made meaningful technical progress over the past two to three years. Google’s Willow processor, introduced in 2024, demonstrated that error rates could decline as additional qubits were added, an important step toward building larger and more reliable systems.

Microsoft and Quantinuum have also reported advances in error correction, while Amazon’s Ocelot prototype, unveiled in 2025, was designed to reduce the hardware required to produce reliable logical qubits. Increasingly, the challenge is not simply to build machines with more qubits, but to make those qubits stable enough to perform useful calculations.

That progress has yet to resolve the commercial question. IBM’s experimental Loon chip, unveiled in November 2025, forms part of its effort to develop a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, while Google reported another quantum-advantage demonstration in October.

Such milestones show that the technology is advancing, but they do not establish when quantum computers will become broadly useful or economically viable. NEC’s decision therefore illustrates the distinction between scientific progress and investment returns: the industry may be moving forward, but the timetable for turning those advances into a profitable business remains uncertain.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 21:40

China's Provinces Show Evidence Of Financial Pressure And The Economy's Imbalances

Authored by Milton Ezrati via The Epoch Times,

Some 28 provinces and separate jurisdictions increasingly have had to turn to Beijing for help closing budget gaps, according to China's Ministry of Finance.

People walk next to a screen with a stocks indicator in the Jing'an district in Shanghai, China, on April 7, 2025. Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images

It is not unusual for Beijing to have to chip in. It gets the lion's share of the country's tax revenues. But the growing need to turn to Beijing nonetheless points to the economy's imbalances and other problems.

Some transfers from Beijing have occurred since the country's tax-sharing reforms were implemented in the 1990s. Beijing gets all income tax revenues from both individuals and companies, all securities trading levies, and all customs duties.

Provinces and like entities must depend almost entirely on deed and land appreciation taxes. Even during the boom years of property development, some provinces needed help. Few had what the Chinese call budgetary "self-sufficiency ratios" at 100 percent.

Outlining the most recent data from this year's first quarter, the deputy director general of the finance ministry's budget department, Tang Zaifu, downplayed the troubling direction of provincial finances. The figures, however, make clear that self-sufficiency has deteriorated and dependency has grown.

Now, Beijing must cover half the budget needs of the 22 provinces under its control and an additional five separate jurisdictions. (Beijing claims 23 provinces, but one, Taiwan, manages its own budget and obviously is not subject to the People's Republic of China's governance.)

The needs of this large number of jurisdictions vary greatly. It is significant, however, that even Shanghai - one of the country's richest areas - failed to meet its own budget needs during this year's opening quarter - this for the first time since the pandemic.

Some areas have done comparatively well. Zhejiang, for instance, managed a self-sufficiency ratio of just over 96 percent. Other rich areas, such as Shandong and Guangdong provinces, showed self-sufficiency ratios exceeding 70 percent.

Other areas did less well, a lot less well. Filling all the budget gaps will cost Beijing some 10.5 trillion yuan, more than a third of the government's entire budget.

Though arcane in many respects, these budget needs and burdens offer yet other perspectives on the imbalances in China's economy and finances.

The first point that becomes clear is how much China's economic reality has changed since the still-prevailing budget reform rules of the 1990s. Those revenue-sharing arrangements, implicitly dependent on a booming property development sector, are simply no longer viable. The still-ongoing property crisis has thoroughly reordered the economy.

These budget figures also point, albeit obliquely, to how narrowly focused China's economy has become. The only reliable growth lies in the mostly high-technology sectors favored by Beijing's "Made in China 2025" program.

Broad-based development has received short shrift, including the Chinese consumer and investments in other, mostly privately owned sectors, making China's economy narrower and more export-dependent than ever.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 21:05

This Labor Day Take A Closer Look At America's Deadliest Jobs, Ranked

Labor Day is a time to recognize the contributions of American workers, but it also draws attention to the risks many face on the job.

Logging was the most dangerous occupation in America in 2024, with 110.4 fatal work injuries per 100,000 full time equivalent workers, more than 33 times the national rate of 3.3, according to a new study by Moneygeek.

Fishing and hunting workers ranked second at 88.8, followed by roofers at 48.7, structural iron and steel workers at 37.8, and refuse and recyclable collectors at 37.4. Each of the five occupations had a fatality rate at least 11 times the national average, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries.

The Labor Day reminder is especially stark when looking at the national toll. A total of 5,070 workers died from job related injuries in 2024, equivalent to one death every 104 minutes. That was a 4% decline from 5,283 deaths in 2023 and marked the second consecutive annual decrease. The national fatality rate also fell from 3.7 per 100,000 workers in 2022 to 3.5 in 2023 and 3.3 in 2024.

The occupations with the highest fatality rates are not necessarily those with the most deaths. Logging recorded 51 fatalities, while driver/sales workers and truck drivers accounted for 950, the largest total of any occupation, despite a substantially lower rate of 25.7 per 100,000.

Moneygeek wrote that construction laborers recorded 334 deaths at a rate of 15.8. The difference reflects workforce size, since a smaller occupation can carry a much greater risk per worker without producing the largest number of fatalities.

The dangers also vary considerably by occupation. Contact with objects and equipment accounted for 40 of the 51 logging deaths, while falls, slips and trips caused 83 of the 104 roofing fatalities.

Transportation incidents were the leading cause in several other high risk occupations, including truck driving, fishing, refuse collection and grounds maintenance. Nationwide, transportation incidents caused 1,937 fatal work injuries, representing 38.2% of all workplace deaths.

The data also highlights the growing toll among older workers. Workers age 65 and older recorded 824 fatal work injuries in 2024, a five year high and a 21.9% increase from 2020. Their share of all workplace deaths rose from 14.2% to 16.3% over that period.

The under 25 group also saw a 19.3% increase, while workers ages 55 to 64 were the only age group to record a decline.

Fatality risk and nonfatal injury rates tell different stories. Forestry and logging had a nonfatal injury rate of 1.3 per 100 workers, below the private industry average of 2.3, despite logging’s exceptionally high fatality rate.

Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction showed a similar contrast, with a nonfatal rate of 1.2. Waste collection and transportation and warehousing, meanwhile, recorded higher nonfatal injury rates of 4.7 and 4.4, respectively. The figures show that the jobs with the greatest risk of death are not always those reporting the most nonfatal injuries.

Workplace risk also varies by state. Wyoming had the highest fatality rate in 2024 at 13.9 deaths per 100,000 workers, followed by Mississippi at 8.0, Alaska at 7.1 and North Dakota at 6.8. Rhode Island had the lowest rate at 1.1, while Texas stood above the national average at 3.9. These differences reflect where hazardous industries and work activities are concentrated rather than where workers permanently reside.

For workers in dangerous occupations, the risks highlighted by Labor Day can also raise questions about financial protection for their families. A hazardous job does not automatically prevent someone from obtaining life insurance.

According to Ethos Chief Underwriter Nichole Myers, underwriting focuses on the specific activities a worker performs, such as working at heights or operating heavy machinery, rather than relying solely on a job title. Ethos reports that approximately 86% of applicants in dangerous job categories are approved for coverage, close to its overall approval rate.

Occupational risk may affect how an application is evaluated, but it does not necessarily make coverage unavailable.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 20:30

Court Rules Pentagon Can Fire Stars And Stripes Journalists

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

A district court denied a motion from three Stars and Stripes journalists that sought to block the Department of War from firing them.

The Pentagon in Arlington, Va., in a file photo. Carolyn Kaster/AP

While plaintiffs argue that the terminations "violate their First Amendment rights to communicate as citizens on matters of public concern," such rights have "some limitations" when applied to people employed in public service, Judge Trevor N. McFadden, from the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, said in the Sept. 4 order.

"When government employees provide public commentary in their official capacity, their speech is government speech, and the First Amendment does not apply," the judge said, adding that the plaintiffs have not demonstrated any "irreparable harm."

The journalists - Max D. Lederer, Erik A. Slavin, and Lara S. Korte - filed their lawsuit on Aug. 27.

On July 5, Korte and Slavin gave interviews to CBS News. The program discussed changes to Pentagon regulations governing Stars and Stripes and their impact on its independence.

Korte said that restrictions may come on her reporting. "I'm working for Stars and Stripes ... not for the Pentagon, not for any administration, not for any policymaker. I'm here to cover the military community," she said.

Meanwhile, Slavin said he would not comply if the Pentagon requested depictions of the story that were inaccurate.

On Aug. 11, Stars and Stripes published a story about "deteriorating conditions" aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, according to the lawsuit. The vessel had been on extended duty amid the U.S.-Iran war.

On Aug. 12, a day after the article was published, Lederer was allegedly ordered to give Slavin and Korte Notices of Separation, citing insubordination for statements made in the July 5 interview.

However, Lederer did not deliver the notices. Instead, he announced his retirement.

Moreover, on Aug. 18, Lederer gave an interview with Stripes, raising concerns about the "direction" of the publication, the complaint said.

On Aug. 21, the Pentagon delivered Notices of Separation for all three plaintiffs, accusing them of insubordination and violating other Department of Defense rules, according to the lawsuit. Defendants in the case include the Pentagon and officials from the department.

"Defendants seek to terminate Plaintiffs because they publicly expressed their personal opinions about Stripes' operations as citizens and because Defendants disapproved of Stripes' publication of the Lincoln Story. The terminations violate Plaintiffs' First Amendment rights," the lawsuit said.

The U.S. Central Command has accused media reports of publishing false reports regarding USS Abraham Lincoln, including one which claimed multiple sailors died aboard the ship in a fight. "No service members aboard the aircraft carrier have died," the Central Command said.

According to the recent court order in Slavin and Korte, the judge held that the plaintiffs failed to show that they participated in the CBS News interview as private citizens.

As for Lederer, the judge observed that his "failure to carry out a directive from a supervisor finds no shelter under the First Amendment."

The judge denied the plaintiffs' motion for a temporary restraining order and a preliminary injunction.

The Epoch Times reached out to the legal representative for Slavin, Korte, and Lederer for comment and did not receive a response by publication time.

The Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, which provides free legal services to news organizations and journalists, said in a Sept. 4 statement that the court should block the War Department from terminating the three employees.

"The government's actions in this case pose a threat to the historical independence of a news outlet that publishes stories of interest to the U.S. military community," the group said.

Meanwhile, the USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in Thailand this week after spending 286 days at sea. The roughly 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard the vessel got the chance to be on land for the first time since November last year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 20:00

UBS Calls Brazil Election "Extremely Close" - Bolsonaro Win Would Cement LatAm's Political Shift

Socialist Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's polling lead over right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has eroded in recent weeks, leaving both statistically tied in UBS' latest runoff polling average. 

Arend Kapteyn, UBS' global head of economics and strategy research, described the upcoming election in early October as "extremely close" in a note to clients on Monday.

Lula (Left); Bolsonaro (Right)

Kapteyn's note today puts Bolsonaro at 50.4% in a hypothetical runoff, against 49.6% for Lula, adding that the narrowing spread leaves the candidates statistically tied. 

Kapteyn continued:

On 4 October, Brazilians will vote for a president, the entire Chamber of Deputies and two-thirds of the Senate. Brazil currently has one of the highest real interest rates in the world, contributing to increasingly adverse debt dynamics. In our view, an election outcome that delivers a credible fiscal consolidation program could significantly improve the macroeconomic outlook. Relative to our baseline, real interest rates could fall by at least 2.5 percentage points (to around 5% from 7.5%), potential growth could be 1pp higher (2.5% rather than 1.5%), and inflation could be around 1pp lower (3.5% rather than 4.5%).

Our poll aggregator currently shows first-round voting intentions of 42.5% for Lula and 36.0% for Flávio Bolsonaro. Given the historical polling error of approximately 3 percentage points, the candidates' confidence intervals overlap. Rejection rates are elevated for both candidates, while other contenders collectively attract 21.5% of voting intentions. If no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round, a runoff will be held on 25 October.

The second round appears even tighter. Lula currently polls at 49.6% of voting intentions versus 50.4% for Flávio. Compared with our poll update a week ago, the lead has effectively changed hands. Importantly, these surveys were conducted before the latest controversy involving a Supreme Court justice, who is alleged to have advised an individual under fraud investigation, a case that could potentially implicate key allies within Lula's inner circle.

Historically, incumbent presidents have generally secured re-election when their "good or great" approval rating exceeded 40%. Lula currently stands at 37% on this measure. Conversations with two political consultants also suggest that momentum may be shifting in Flávio's favour. Nevertheless, prediction markets continue to assign Lula a modest advantage. Polymarket implies odds of roughly 55%-43% in Lula's favour, while Kalshi places the race at approximately 55%-44%.

Polymarket Odds:

Read:

• Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Disappear As Bolsonaro Heir Turns Presidential Election Into Coin Toss
• Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Evaporating, New Poll Shows

The election may determine whether Brazil moves further left or right politically. Across the continent, the latest country to shift right was Colombia. Many others have followed:

By mid-2026, South America had already flipped. Argentina (Milei), Chile (Kast), Colombia (de la Espriella), Peru (Keiko Fujimori), Ecuador (Noboa), Bolivia (Paz), and Paraguay (Peña) sit on the right.

The remaining large left-wing governments are Brazil and Uruguay. Brazil accounts for about half of South America's GDP and population. If Brazil goes right, the region would be entirely aligned with the Trump administration and would be on track to rid itself of nation-killing socialism and other failed progressive experiments.

In Germany on Sunday, right-wing Alternative für Deutschland delivered its strongest election result ever in Saxony-Anhalt, dealing a sharp blow to the political establishment. Nomura analysts indicate that Europe may be in the early stages of "lurching right" (read the report).

Putting this all together, Western voters are rejecting nation-killing left-wing regimes that have done nothing more than allow mass migration, pursue progressive experiments, and neuter the West's industrial and power grids with climate change policies, which has only given China a leg up in the AI and weapons race. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 19:30

Chinese Oil Demand Unexpectedly Soars, Sending Shanghai Crude Above $100, With Brent Prices Set To Follow

One of the reasons why the price of oil failed to soar during the "actively kinetic" phase of the Iran war, when shipments through Hormuz were effectively halted and the world faced a shortage of about 10-15mm barrels of oil per day, is that Chinese oil demand suddenly evaporated. Whether due to a sharp slowdown in the economy (which after the sudden "recap" of China's banks appears quite likely) or due to an aggressive drain of China's strategic reserve, the reality is that, as discussed here extensively, both Chinese oil imports...

... and local product refining...

... cratered for much of 2026, signaling that Chinese oil demand has indeed plunged.

But no more: one of the telltale signs of the period of weak Chinese demand was the collapse in the Brent-Shanghai crude spread, which traded as negative as -$20 in late April. However, in the past few weeks, we have seen a dramatic jump in Shanghai crude, which is trading just shy of the highest level hit since the Iran war, well above $100. More importantly, it now trading a sizable premium to Brent, indicating that the period of weak Chinese demand is finally over (whether because the economy is finally recovering or simply to squeeze Trump ahead of his summit with Xi, not to mention the midterms, remains tbd). 

And sure enough, as Bloomberg report, China - the world's largest oil importer - is now aggressively bidding up crude prices across Africa, Canada, and Latin American markets as disruptions in the Hormuz chokepoint and limited Iranian supplies intensify competition for alternatives. The scramble is squeezing smaller Chinese refineries that once relied on heavily discounted Iranian barrels; the same refineries simply shut down a few months ago when there was not enough domestic demand.

But now, something has finally flipped, and demand for oil is suddenly soaring, sending Shanghai crude above $100 and threatening to push Brent prices - earlier today rising above $97 for the first time in over a month - also above $100 for the first time since May. 

The renewed Chinese buying marks a major shift from a period when subdued Chinese buying helped restrain crude oil prices. With Iranian exports almost entirely shut off by the US blockade and fighting flaring again, as seen Monday when Saudi Aramco's Jizan oil facilities were reportedly hit, the race to find replacement supplies around the world is becoming an increasingly expensive task for the Chinese. 

Here is what some traders who spoke with Bloomberg had to say: 

The turnaround is producing spikes in the price of various grades. Congo's Djeno crude was offered to Chinese buyers at premiums of as high as $20 a barrel over ICE Brent this week, up from around $15 a couple of weeks ago, according to traders who asked not to be named as they're not authorized to speak to the media.

Chinese buyers are also buying tanker loads of crude from Canada, Brazil, and Argentina, while stronger demand has lifted prices for Russia's ESPO crude. Asian buyers are also pushing Dubai crude futures toward $100 per barrel.  

While Chinese seaborne crude imports are still below prewar levels and are currently trending toward 10 million barrels per day, the Shanghai crude spread indicates that imports are aggressively rising, and that the race for alternative supplies may still intensify. 

Bloomberg pointed out that the rebound in crude imports comes as refinery math improves and inventories are being rebuilt in China. Improved processing margins, the resumption of fuel exports, and commercial restocking are encouraging refiners to ramp up purchases, according to GL Consulting founder Liao Na. 

Smaller independent refiners, known as teapots, face the greatest pressure because their traditional sourcing channels for Iranian and Venezuelan crude have eroded this year as access to those supplies has collapsed amid the Trump administration's push to rewire global energy markets. 

Liao said, "China's robust buying lately is largely driven by refiners taking advantage of decent margins," adding, "Active restocking by commercial players has also helped, but it’s not necessarily a sign of stronger underlying demand that’s supporting the recovery."

Separately, Goldman Sachs energy expert Daan Struyven expects China's ability to adjust purchases to prices to help moderate any spikes in crude prices, although he also warned that Brent may rally to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East increase.

“Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

Goldman's preferred way to trade another oil spike is buy going long natural gas and diesel as a way to capture gains:  “While we see meaningful upside to crude oil prices, we do recommend to investors to hedge geopolitical risks by going long in global natural gas and refined-oil products,” Struyven said, referring to bets on gains. “The supply shocks are bigger than in the crude market.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 19:04

Hunter Biden To Launch Memecoin, Will Send To TRUMP Holders

Authored by Turner Wright via CoinTelegraph.com,

Hunter Biden will reportedly distribute 200 million of the LAPTOP token to his substack subscribers, members of a mailing list and investors in President Donald Trump’s memecoin.

Hunter Biden, son of former US President Joe Biden, announced that he plans to launch a memecoin based on the reports of his infamous laptop, which has been subject to intense media scrutiny.

In a Monday announcement on X, Hunter Biden posted the memecoin’s ticker symbol, $LAPTOP, signaling a Wednesday launch. The Wall Street Journal reported that Biden would send 20% of the one-billion token supply to substack subscribers, members of a mailing list and investors in President Donald Trump’s memecoin, Official Trump (TRUMP), whose value has dropped by about 97% since reaching an all-time high price in January 2025.

Source: Hunter Biden

The basis for the memecoin’s namesake is Biden’s computer, whose existence and contents were subject to scrutiny before the 2020 election, in which his father was running against Trump. The laptop continues to be invoked by many right-wing media figures and was the subject of two lawsuits filed by Biden over privacy laws. 

Since his father left office in January 2025, Biden has stepped up his rhetoric on crypto and blockchain, specifically criticizing the Trump family’s entanglements with the industry through its World Liberty Financial business. 

In August, he called World Liberty “corruption at a scale we’ve never seen,” comparing its business practices with those of defunct crypto exchange FTX and pointing to its ties to foreign governments like the UAE. Biden also said in June that “decentralized digital currency and the blockchain are the inevitable future.”

The LAPTOP founders, holding 30% of the token supply, will reportedly burn up to 30% of the memecoins depending on the outcome of events, including a Democrat winning the presidency in 2028, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching an all-time high and LAPTOP’s fully diluted value exceeding TRUMP’s.

CLARITY Act vote set for later this month

The LAPTOP memecoin, if launched as planned, could shine more of a spotlight on Trump’s crypto ventures at a time when lawmakers in Congress are considering a comprehensive market structure bill to regulate the digital asset industry. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, also known as the CLARITY Act, is scheduled for a cloture vote in the Senate on Sept. 15.

Cointelegraph reached out to the White House for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 18:00

Unhinged Passenger Duct-Taped on Flight Is Identified, Fired From Job

An American Airlines flight was forced into an emergency landing Thursday evening after an unhinged passenger was duct-taped to his seat after a racist, sexist meltdown, according to multiple reports.

The raging flyer, identified as 67-year-old Arthur Layne Lundeen, allegedly hurled the N-word and anti-gay slurs at flight attendants and unloaded a series of "very offensive" remarks at female passengers, eyewitnesses told ABC News.

Fellow passenger Richard O'Lenick told NJ.com that Lundeen made statements about Jesus and said the plane was going to crash, then struck a pastor seated next to him and a woman who intervened. Witnesses said Lundeen had been served at least one drink.

That prompted O'Lenick and his coworker Juan Mejia, a retired Weehawken police officer, to step in. According to the New York Times, Lundeen bit Mejia's hand before a flight attendant handed over the tape that Mejia wrapped around the man's body, seat and head.

Shocking footage shows Lundeen's head, hands and torso duct-taped to the chair and his wrists bound together.

The Dallas-to-Newark flight was diverted to Baltimore, where Lundeen was hauled off the plane and arrested before passengers could continue on to their destination, according to the New York Post.

Lundeen was charged with misdemeanor second-degree assault and disorderly conduct, while the real estate agent's employer, Long Realty, cut ties in a statement.

"Long Realty is aware of reports concerning criminal charges filed against a former affiliated real estate agent arising from an incident that allegedly occurred during a commercial flight.

"Upon learning of the incident, Long Realty promptly ended its affiliation with the individual. The individual is no longer associated with or authorized to represent Long Realty in any capacity.

"The conduct described in the reports is wholly inconsistent with the professionalism, integrity, compassion, and respect for others that Long Realty expects from those affiliated with the company. We expect those associated with our company to uphold those values, and we have no tolerance for conduct that so clearly falls short of those expectations. Our thoughts are with the passengers, crew members, and others affected by this incident."

Federal authorities are now weighing whether to file additional charges.

"The FBI is currently conducting interviews to gather the facts and will consult with the U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Maryland to determine if federal charges will be filed," the bureau said in a statement.

Lundeen was released on his own recognizance on Sept. 4 and waived an attorney at his initial appearance, court records show. His trial is set for Oct. 19 in Anne Arundel County District Court. The charges are allegations and he is presumed innocent.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 17:30

Canada's Tariff Strategy Designed To Interfere With U.S. Midterm Elections

Late last month, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walked away from a trade deal with the United States. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Canada was "offered the best trade deal of any country on the globe," but Carney abandoned the deal "at the last minute."

According to the White House, "the U.S. offered Canada the most preferential market access of any country on Earth, with deep cuts on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber, and more. Instead of partnership, Canada chose unreasonable demands, walk-backs, and flat-out rejection." Canada responded with retaliation rather than negotiation, becoming the only other country besides China to do so.

And the reason is that Canada is trying to influence the 2026 midterm elections in the United States.

After the trade negotiations failed, Canadian officials announced that tariffs of up to 50% will hit roughly 700 American products starting September 8, covering close to $20 billion in goods, about 7% of everything Canada imports from the United States. The rates range from 15% to 50%, and tariffs on American steel and aluminum will double from 25% to 50%. This was a targeted economic strike meant to hit key states before the midterm elections.

Ottawa has barely bothered to deny it. Canadian Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said the tariffs were built to apply political pressure on specific states, telling reporters: "We are also targeting products that can target specific states in the United States. We are being smart and strategic in order to apply political pressure, and I think it's the right thing to do right now."

Asked directly about the political intent by the Canadian Broadcasting Corp., Joly did not walk it back: "We are putting pressure clearly on different states and different people. We don't want to do that. We don't want this trade war. We didn't start it."

The target list reads like a midterm map. Cheese products from Wisconsin. Washers and dryers from Kentucky, where GE Appliances is a major employer. Steel, aluminum and auto parts from Michigan. The Wall Street Journal reported that Canadian officials designed the package to protect domestic industry and to "sting President Trump and his Republican Party" heading into November.

"The states that are most reliant on Canada as an export market are often the northern-tier states - Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire," Ed Gresser told the Wall Street Journal. He argued that Canada is "trying to show the Republican party that there's a systemic cost to doing this sort of thing."

Trade consultant Eric Miller, who heads the Washington-based Rideau Potomac Strategy Group, said Canada picked targets with available substitutes, either domestic production or imports from Mexico and China, items like air conditioners and appliances, while simultaneously hitting producers in swing states and reliably Republican territory.

Nowhere was the targeting clearer than Maine, and nowhere did it collapse faster. Ottawa's original list carried a 25% tariff on American lobster, set to bite during the fall season when roughly half of Maine's catch goes to Canadian processors. Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), facing re-election in November, had already warned that the trade war would hurt her state. The Maine Lobstermen's Association warned on Aug. 26 that the duty would land at the worst possible moment for an industry running on thin margins.

One day later, Canada removed seafood and fish products from the list entirely, citing "select adjustments" made "based on feedback" while insisting it was maintaining a dollar-for-dollar response. Collins applauded the reversal. Ottawa aimed at a vulnerable Republican senator's most iconic industry, took one day of political heat from that state, and backed off - which tells you the aim was never really about lobster.

The rest of the list is still standing.

Desjardins Capital Markets economist Royce Mendes estimates that the tariffs could add about 0.2 percentage points to Canadian inflation, already near 3%. The central bank is already managing higher energy costs and the risk of a slowdown, which makes this move extremely complicated for Canada, and, according to Corpay chief market strategist Karl Schamotta, Canada's strategy may backfire.

"An intensified trade war will hurt the country more than the U.S.," Schamotta explained. "Countertariffs will not help. In Canada, just as in the U.S., they are effectively taxes on domestic consumption. They raise the cost of living while doing little to shift trade balances or improve overall economic welfare."

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 16:30

Hackers Withdraw 320 Million In Bitcoin From Blockstream's Liquid Network Federation Reserves

Authored by Juan Galt via BitcoinMagazine.com,

The Liquid Network said Sunday that purported white-hat hackers withdrew about 4,000 bitcoin, worth about $320 million, from the federation wallet that backs L-BTC.

Bridge nodes were disabled, and the sidechain was paused. Other issued assets, including USDT, DePix and RWAs, were unaffected, the official account said on X.

The Liquid Network is a federated sidechain of Bitcoin, founded by Adam Back’s Blockstream. The Liquid chain issues a variety of assets such as LBTC, which it backs with BTC on the Bitcoin main chain, held in a large multisig of 15 corporate and known members. 11 of the 15 members need to sign a valid multi-signature transaction to move coins from the treasury. Before the hack, the treasury held over 4200 BTC; after the hack, Blockstream’s proof of reserves page reports a little over 207 BTC left. 

The hackers withdrew 4,019.4 BTC from the reserve address in a peg-out transaction using the SideSwap Peg-out Authorization Key. SideWap is a bridge exchange and a member of the Liquid Federation. While details on the mechanism of the hack are not confirmed yet, it appears an inflation bug on the LBTC side chain was exploited by the hackers to create over 4,000 LBTC that did not exist before, and cash them out for on-chain bitcoin from the federation. Because the transaction appeared as valid, given the consensus bug, the federation members’ HSM security servers signed the BTC withdrawal transaction, worth roughly 320 million at the time. 

The hacker moved the funds to an address ending in 6gyqjlte, from which they quickly signed a new transaction with a message on the OP_RETURN arbitrary data field saying “we are whitehats. contact us on chain.” Those coins were still at that address at the time of writing.

A small mainnet transaction to the hacker address followed by an OP_RETURN saying “Please contact security@blockstream.com”, presumably from a Blockstream public address, though that remains unconfirmed. A later OP_RETURN spend from the hacker address carried “Please contact us on Signal @m671aw.70”, however, this may be spam and does not share a link to the address with the stolen funds.

In response to the breach, exchanges were told to pause L-BTC deposits and withdrawals. Bridge nodes on the Liquid Network have been paused, limiting access to the side chain, which continues to produce blocks. 

JAN3 CEO Samson Mow said Aqua’s Liquid features were affected and that on-chain bitcoin still worked. Other wallets in the industry that use the Liquid Network are expected to be affected. Users holding LBTC now effectively have their savings at risk, since the underlying BTC is currently not redeemable. Given the private nature of the Liquid chain, user onchain analytics are scarce and not much public information is known about how much LBTC is held by retail users versus corporations of Blockstream itself. Nevertheless, should the funds not be returned, it would be a heavy blow to the Liquid Network’s user base.

Users of LBTC don’t have many options but to wait for conversations with the hackers to resolve. Given the size of the hack, it would be difficult for the hackers to get away with stealing all that bitcoin, though perhaps not impossible.

What may happen is that the hackers ask for a finder’s fee and return the majority of the funds. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 16:00

Iron Ore Bottom In? Prices Reclaim $100 On "Improving Downstream Conditions"

Iron ore futures in Singapore surged above $100 a ton, the highest level since mid-July, as tightening Chinese coking coal supplies lifted steelmaking costs and early signs of improving seasonal demand supported prices across the steel supply chain.

Rafael Barcellos, head of Latin American metals and mining, pulp and paper equity research at Bradesco BBI, wrote in a note last week that the coal squeeze is helping support steel prices, with rebar and hot-rolled coil reaching multi-month highs. Improving downstream conditions are, in turn, providing support for iron ore.

Barcellos pointed to China's August manufacturing purchasing managers' index as another encouraging economic signal. 

Iron ore inventories also continued to decline, spot activity at Chinese steel-trading houses increased for a second consecutive week, and steelmaker margins improved. Blast furnace utilization, however, declined for a second week, tempering the recovery picture.

Barcellos flagged a recovery: 

Even so, the recovery we flagged in VALE: Calling the Iron Ore Bottom? Attractive Asymmetry After 2Q26 Results is now playing out, with prices largely rebounding from the lows of the past couple of weeks — a trend we expect to persist amid firm cost support and improving downstream conditions. 

Barcellos' trade recommendation: 

Against this backdrop, we continue to favor Vale and Ternium over CSN, Gerdau, and Usiminas.

China's prolonged property downturn has weakened a major source of steel demand, weighing on iron ore prices despite periodic rebounds. 

The latest recovery to $100 a ton raises the question of whether improving seasonal conditions can translate into a sustained demand growth story, keeping prices in triple-digit territory. 

In the metals complex on Monday, London copper futures reached a new high of $14,530 a ton. For further context, we direct readers to our note, "The Copper Chart Causing Alarm."

Professional subscribers can read much more about the latest metals space here on our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/07/2026 - 15:30