Individual Economists

Brent Flirts With $110 Before Reversing As Wright Declares Pump Prices Have "Peaked"

Zero Hedge -

Brent Flirts With $110 Before Reversing As Wright Declares Pump Prices Have "Peaked"

Brent crude futures briefly tagged $109.99 a barrel in overnight trading before retreating from five-month highs during the Asian session and into European trading, as signs of recovering Middle Eastern supply offset renewed attacks on energy infrastructure and critical maritime shipping lanes.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright reinforced expectations of easing fuel prices at the pump, with ABC News quoting him on Sunday as saying gasoline and diesel prices had "peaked."

"Both gasoline and diesel prices peaked a few weeks ago," Wright said, adding that the US wants them to "pull back a lot more than they have."

He said he understands the mounting frustrations at the pump, which have soured consumer sentiment, but said the administration is "working in all different avenues" to address the problem.

The latest data from AAA show the national average for diesel prices at the pump on Sunday stood at around $6.319 a gallon, down from the previous record high of $6.50.

AAA pump data also show regular gasoline prices sliding from the $4.50 level to $4.295 by Sunday, still above the politically sensitive $4 level.

Wright said Gulf oil flows had recovered to about 80% of pre-conflict levels, although refined-product shipments remained heavily constrained amid a global refining crisis compounded by Ukraine's persistent attacks on Russian refineries.

Separately, Wright told Fox News that Trump administration officials were discussing releases of diesel stockpiles in coordination with European allies.

June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities SA, told Bloomberg, "The markets seem unwilling to absorb the higher prices with the rest of the economy not looking rosy," adding that Brent crude is likely to remain around $100.

The Wall Street Journal reported overnight that Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed talks next month with President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Moscow confirmed discussions were underway.

Last week, the International Energy Agency reinforced Goldman Sachs energy analyst Nikhil Bhandari's warning that there is no quick relief at the pump, as the refining crisis, particularly in diesel, will persist well into next year.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 07:45

Struggling Volkswagen Plans Pay Freeze Through 2030 As Job Cuts Loom: Report

Zero Hedge -

Struggling Volkswagen Plans Pay Freeze Through 2030 As Job Cuts Loom: Report

In another episode of the "death of Europe," a new report from Germany brings more troubling news for struggling automaker Volkswagen, suggesting to us that globalists in the bloc have squandered not just their inheritance but their economic future through a failing progressive experiment that has neutered Europe's industrial base.

German daily newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) reports that Volkswagen plans to freeze salaries through the end of the decade as it expands its cost-cutting push after lowering its outlook and doubling its job-reduction target.

"Internal documents reveal that hundreds of thousands of employees are to forgo pay raises. These latest plans represent a further escalation in the conflict between management and employee representatives," SZ wrote in the article.

The proposed freeze is part of a broader restructuring plan the executive board approved, SZ said, citing internal documents. It added that all regions and plants are expected to make an "appropriate" contribution to Volkswagen's "Group Target Picture," a turnaround strategy aimed at rescuing the automaker.

The plans follow Volkswagen's September decision to slash its outlook and double its job-cut target to 100,000 positions.

More context:

Why Europe allowed a flood of Chinese EVs and hybrids to undercut its own automakers is a question for the history books.

Brussels has at least begun to respond, agreeing earlier this month to cap Chinese hybrid imports at 350,000 vehicles a year, with restrictions expected to take effect in December. It's a start.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 07:20

Europe Braces For A Winter Energy Crisis As Gas Reserves Run Low

Zero Hedge -

Europe Braces For A Winter Energy Crisis As Gas Reserves Run Low

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice,

  • Europe faces another expensive winter as low gas reserves and Middle East disruptions drive up energy prices.

  • Rising fuel costs threaten household budgets, industrial production, and employment across Europe.

  • Increased U.S. LNG supplies could provide some relief, but continued geopolitical risks leave energy markets vulnerable.

After months of elevated energy prices, Europe can expect fuel costs to continue rising through the winter months as demand grows. Ongoing energy trade constraints and threats to energy infrastructure across the Middle East are expected to limit global energy supplies and continue to drive up prices, hitting consumers hard unless governments intervene.

The European Union (EU) is thought to have paid an additional €100 billion on oil and gas so far this year, prompting EU ministers to seek ways to manage the impact of high fuel prices. Since 2022, the extra costs of energy have surpassed €900 billion, even as total demand has fallen. The price of natural gas in Europe has more than doubled since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli-led war in Iran. This winter could be the most challenging in terms of energy supplies and prices since the start of Russia's war on Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions on Russian energy.

Meanwhile, EU energy commissioner Dan Jorgensen has warned that the winter months could be challenging amid "very high" oil and gas prices, although he reassured consumers that no supply issues are expected. Jorgensen also proposed postponing the introduction of rules to reduce methane emissions on energy imports to help ease pressure on European energy markets.

Gas storage has fallen to its lowest level since 2022. In September, across Europe, gas storage stood at around 67 per cent full, compared with a seasonal average of around 80 per cent. Germany, which has the largest storage capacity in Europe, is roughly half full, and is expected to miss its official 80 per cent storage target this year.

Meanwhile, constrained supplies due to strict limits on energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz have sharply driven up energy prices. Oil prices increased by 65 per cent, diesel by 45 per cent, and jet fuel by 112 per cent between September 25, 2025 and 2026. This has led the European Commission to call for consumers to reduce their demand throughout the year to manage supplies.

As Europe heads into its high-demand winter months, there is no end to the war in Iran in sight. In addition, the El Niño weather cycle is expected to add an element of uncertainty to weather trends, which could further complicate the gas demand picture. Threats remain to fuel shipments traversing the Strait of Hormuz, as well as ongoing threats to energy infrastructure across the Middle East. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and against pipelines continue to be a concern. Therefore, there are likely to be restrictions on global oil trade well into 2027.

The United States has focused on increasing oil and gas production to help alleviate some of the energy supply chain constraints, but this can only partly fill the gap. Atlantic and Pacific freight rates have returned to pre-Iran war levels, as a larger share of cargoes from the United States is heading to Europe rather than Asia, thereby reducing travel distances and increasing ship availability.

The independent LNG and shipping analyst Pratiksha Negi stated, "The growing share of Atlantic trade, combined with an increasing pool of prompt vessels, will continue to pressure freight rates... I expect Europe to remain the principal destination for marginal U.S. LNG at the start of Q4 2026, given the significant storage deficit this season." Negi also highlighted the rise in newbuild deliveries, with roughly 55 new vessels delivered in the first seven months of the year and another 40-45 expected by the end of the year.

Across Europe, it is not only households that are concerned about their energy bills, as several industries prepare for fuel shortages. Higher fuel prices are driving up operating costs in factories and other facilities, which could lead companies to charge more for manufactured goods, as costs will once again shift to consumers. Meanwhile, companies that cannot secure or afford adequate fuel supplies may be forced to suspend operations in the winter, leading to job cuts.

A recent forecast by the Item Club suggested that in the United Kingdom, as many as 163,000 jobs could be lost in 2026 in relation to the war, mainly in manufacturing-heavy regions such as South Wales and the Humber region. As one of Europe's biggest gas consumers, the U.K. is highly exposed to trade restrictions, particularly because it has one of the lowest levels of domestic storage capacity, which means it relies heavily on pipeline imports from Europe and tankers from the U.S. and the Middle East. The CEO of British Gas owner Centrica, Chris O'Shea, said in August that Britain had "almost no gas in storage" for the coming winter.

Both households and businesses across Europe could be hit hard this winter by the continued constraints on oil and gas supplies and high energy prices. This could force consumers to ration their consumption and may prompt the European Commission and governments to intervene to ensure consumers have access to vital energy supplies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 05:00

70% Of Moroccan Asylee Claims In Ceuta After Mass Entry Cite Persecution Over Sexual Orientation

Zero Hedge -

70% Of Moroccan Asylee Claims In Ceuta After Mass Entry Cite Persecution Over Sexual Orientation

Spanish police say about 70% of the Moroccans processed in Ceuta after July's mass entry have asked for asylum alleging persecution over their sexual orientation, according to El Periódico de Ceuta, which relays figures from National Police sources first published by the Spanish daily ABC. The number comes from unnamed police sources, not published statistics.

Migrants hold Spanish flags and signs calling for asylum as they gather in Ceuta, Spain, August 16, 2026. REUTERS/Maria Alejandra Cardona TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

The paper says officers handling migration in the enclave see a shift from the economic or work reasons Moroccans usually gave, and that the claims have reshaped the caseload at the city's asylum office. Morocco-focused outlet Yabiladi reports that the sources suspect some applicants are being coached on asylum procedures as a way to stay in Spain.

Only five of those who arrived in the mass entries have so far won refugee status for persecution over homosexuality, El Periódico says. Spain's Office of Asylum and Refugees reviews each file individually, and the paper says investigators are still weighing whether each account is true.

Being gay is not enough by itself, Yabiladi notes: applicants must show a well-founded risk of persecution if sent back, judged on interviews, consistency, documents and conditions in Morocco, and without relying on stereotypes. Morocco criminalizes same-sex relations under Article 489 of its penal code, and the U.S. State Department says hundreds of men and women are prosecuted for it each year, per AP.

Neither report says how many claims sit behind the 70% figure. El Periódico describes it as a share of Moroccans attended after the entries, while Yabiladi calls it 70% of applications, so the denominator is unclear.

Some claimants have told their stories. An AP report on Oct. 11 quoted a gay man from Tetouan who left after his brother threatened to report him to police: "I left Morocco because being gay is so hard." AP said it could not independently verify the asylum claim of one interviewee. Police cleared the beachside tent camp in early October.

The scale of the July 30-31 entry is itself disputed. Spanish government estimates put the number who reached the city at 72,000, many swimming around the border fence, the Irish Times reported in August. The government counted 83 deaths and a human rights group 141. Most of those who crossed were sent back to Morocco, several thousand remain, and Yabiladi puts the number still in the city at about 10,000.

Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska has said none of the migrants will stay in Ceuta or travel to the mainland. Spain raised police and Civil Guard numbers in the city from 1,100 to 1,600, and Morocco put soldiers and extra fencing along the border. Madrid blamed traffickers, but the cause of the crossing has not been identified.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 04:15

Germany's Rent Control Is Backfiring, New Study Of 107 Cities Finds

Zero Hedge -

Germany's Rent Control Is Backfiring, New Study Of 107 Cities Finds

Authored by Rainer Zitelmann via RealClearMarkets,

Across Europe, the housing shortage is getting worse - and left-wing parties have discovered it as a central political issue. Recently, the far-left party DIE LINKE even won the elections in Berlin, the German capital, campaigning on a demand to nationalize large housing companies. In Spain, hundreds of thousands of people have demonstrated in favor of stricter regulations.

But do such measures really help?

We should learn from Germany's experience, where a form of rent control known as the "Mietpreisbremse" (rent brake) was introduced back in 2015 and has since been tightened several times.

Yet this rent control policy is producing precisely the opposite of what it was intended to achieve. That is the conclusion of a new doctoral dissertation completed at the University of Regensburg, Europe's leading university for real estate studies.

In Germany, the gap between rents paid by existing tenants and rents charged for newly rented apartments is growing wider. In his 2026 dissertation, "Housing Markets Between Regional Heterogeneity and Political Intervention," Lars Jagemann analyzes 107 German cities. He finds that the gap between existing rents and asking rents for new leases averages 20 to 25 percent, reaching as much as 50 percent in major metropolitan areas.

This creates what economists call a "lock-in effect." As Jagemann explains, existing tenants hold on to their inexpensive, legally protected rental contracts and avoid moving into the more expensive segment of the market, even when their current homes no longer suit their circumstances.

As a result, the supply of housing available to people who need to move, such as young families or those starting their careers, shrinks, making it increasingly difficult for them to find an apartment. The market becomes increasingly divided into two groups: "insiders," who benefit from stable, inexpensive rental contracts protected by regulation, and "outsiders," who are looking for housing and face sharply rising market rents for new leases.

The dissertation confirms what economists have repeatedly warned about: While German housing policy aims to promote social stability and protect tenants, the measures introduced create unintended market distortions that can, paradoxically, harm precisely those groups they are supposed to protect. Regulation, the author concludes, is becoming increasingly "dysfunctional."

In theory, there are two possible responses: even more regulation, or deregulation and greater reliance on market forces. The author himself makes no direct recommendation. It would have been desirable for the dissertation to examine in greater detail the problems associated with even stricter regulation, particularly the "interventionist spiral" identified by economist Ludwig von Mises.

According to Mises, tighter regulations may temporarily alleviate certain problems, but they create new ones. Governments then introduce additional regulations to address these problems, which in turn produce further unintended consequences.

In fact, the dissertation provides empirical confirmation of this mechanism. Since Germany introduced its rent brake in 2015, the policy has already been tightened several times. The so-called "Kappungsgrenze," which limits rent increases for existing tenants, has also been made more restrictive.

The central finding of the dissertation is that precisely because housing is a fundamental social need, housing policy interventions must respect the inherent mechanisms of the market. Regulations that work against fundamental economic incentives provoke avoidance strategies that can place additional burdens on vulnerable groups. Sustainable housing policy, so the authors, must therefore make intelligent use of market mechanisms rather than fight them: by creating incentives instead of imposing prohibitions, expanding supply instead of capping prices, and establishing transparent, long-term rules instead of constantly changing interventions.

The author also places particular emphasis on the damaging effects of political uncertainty. Such uncertainty is created not only by actual government policies. Even the discussion of possible new regulations can generate uncertainty, prompting investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

Uncertainty is always bad for investors, but it is particularly damaging in real estate, the author argues, because investments require long planning periods and are largely irreversible. Unlike stocks, investors cannot simply exit a construction project at any time without losing substantial amounts of money.

Here, too, a vicious circle develops: uncertainty reduces housing supply, which drives up property prices and rents. These increases are then used to justify new political demands for intervention, creating even more uncertainty.

Alongside healthcare and finance, housing is among the most heavily regulated markets in many countries. It is no coincidence that these are precisely the sectors that experience recurring crises. More regulation increases costs and reduces efficiency.

Across Europe, center-right parties are making the mistake of leaving housing policy to the left instead of making problems such as high rents and housing shortages central issues themselves. They should demonstrate that only sweeping deregulation can substantially expand housing supply. Javier Milei is currently showing exactly how this can be done in Argentina.BIO: In June, Skyhorse Publishing will release Rainer Zitelmann's book "New Space Capitalism."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 03:30

80% Of New UK Payroll Jobs Since 2014 Went To Foreign Nationals, Think Tank Finds

Zero Hedge -

80% Of New UK Payroll Jobs Since 2014 Went To Foreign Nationals, Think Tank Finds

Just one in five of the roughly 3.7 million jobs added to UK payrolls from 2014 through the end of 2025 went to British nationals. Non-EU nationals took about 2.5 million of them, roughly two-thirds, and EU nationals another 408,000, leaving Britons with 734,000, according to a Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) analysis of HMRC data.

The center-right think tank released the figures Tuesday in State of Dependency, a 250-page report launching its Welfare 2030 inquiry. Former Work and Pensions Secretary Sir Iain Duncan Smith chairs the inquiry.

The CSJ's rounded components add to about 3.64 million against its "approximately 3.7 million" total, so foreign nationals took close to 80% of the growth and Britons about 20%. Britons still hold most of the jobs that exist: HMRC data show 25.6 million Britons among 32 million payrolled workers in December 2025, the Press Association reported.

The shift is recent. Since January 2020, Britons' payroll jobs fell in nine of the UK's 12 regions and nations while non-EU nationals' jobs rose in all 12, the CSJ's regional table shows. Summed across that table, non-EU nationals gained about 2.1 million payroll jobs, Britons lost about 186,000 and EU nationals lost about 352,000. More than four-fifths of the non-EU gain since 2014 therefore came in the last six years of the twelve.

London shows it most sharply. Non-EU payroll jobs there rose by 465,200 since 2020 while Britons' fell by 26,500 and EU nationals' by 171,100. Scotland lost 53,000 British payroll jobs and gained 130,200 non-EU ones; the South East lost 31,700 and gained 284,500. Four sectors account for about two-thirds of the non-EU increase: health and social work (29%), administrative and support services (16%), accommodation and food (12%), and wholesale and retail (10%).

Care shows how the door opened. In the year to March 2023, about 57,700 care and senior care workers received skilled-worker visas, and 99% of sponsored care workers in 2022 came from outside the EU, according to the Migration Observatory. Inflows have since fallen: the ONS put net migration at 171,000 in 2025, from 331,000 a year earlier, with work-related arrivals of non-EU nationals down 47% to about 146,000 after rule changes that included closing the Health and Care route for overseas care workers. The CSJ's payroll window ends in December 2025, so it captures the hiring wave and only part of the 2024 and 2025 restrictions.

The other half of the CSJ's case is welfare. It counts 6.7 million people on at least one out-of-work benefit, about one in six working-age adults, and says out-of-work claimants rose by 2.3 million between February 2020 and November 2025. Working-age benefits are forecast to cost £136.1 billion in 2026/27, up about £50 billion in real terms since 2019/20, and the report identifies 3,369 "welfare hotspots" where claimants outnumber half the working-age population, home to nearly 900,000 people.

A companion CSJ estimate puts the foreign-national share at about 1.85 million non-British adults receiving at least one benefit or the state pension in 2025, at roughly £23 billion, including 1.3 million on Universal Credit at £11.9 billion. Those are CSJ calculations from DWP, HMRC and Home Office data and survey rates, not official statistics, and they assume half the adults in mixed-nationality households are foreign nationals. Earlier estimates ran lower: as we reported, one analysis of government data put welfare paid to migrants at £7.6 billion in a single year.

The report's thesis is that governments swapped one dependency for another. Real GDP grew 26% from 2006 to 2025, but real GDP per person grew only 10%, which the CSJ calls "human quantitative easing": importing workers to lift headline growth. It adds that official fiscal forecasts run only five years, so they bank the early tax take from migrant workers and miss the welfare costs that arrive later. Duncan Smith said "ministers have repeatedly pulled the easy lever of immigration rather than providing a better deal for left behind communities."

He has made the jobs argument before. As work and pensions secretary in July 2011, Duncan Smith told a Madrid audience that businesses should hire unemployed Britons, and Channel 4 noted that 87% of the 400,000 jobs created in the coalition's first year had gone to workers from abroad, a figure unearthed by Labour MP Frank Field. The same caution applies here. The CSJ counts net changes in payrolled jobs by nationality, not who was hired, and a naturalized citizen counts as British. In 2015 the Daily Express claimed 75% of new jobs went to EU migrants; the paper corrected it after economist Jonathan Portes complained and the press regulator IPSO ruled it "significantly misleading," because the ONS data showed net changes in employment, not people entering new jobs.

The report landed a day after Reform UK's Nigel Farage pledged to suspend the asylum system for a full parliament, as we reported.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 02:45

Dutch Minister: Young Locals Can Just Live With Their Parents, Migrants Get Houses First

Zero Hedge -

Dutch Minister: Young Locals Can Just Live With Their Parents, Migrants Get Houses First

Via Remix News,

Dutch Housing Minister Elanor Boekholt-O'Sullivan drew sharp criticism this week after defending priority access to scarce social housing for recognized refugees, arguing that many young Dutch first-time home seekers "can still live with their parents."

In an interview with De Telegraaf, the D66 minister was asked why status holders - asylum seekers granted residence permits - should receive preference for social rental homes while Dutch "starters" face long waiting lists and delayed independence. She responded that "we see that a lot of starters can still, or are allowed to, live with their parents."

Dutch commentator and activist Eva Vlaardingerbroek wrote on X that the policy amounted to "systemic racism."

"And not just the 'new' newcomers. A 25-year-old Syrian who came here with his parents years ago jumps the queue for a home when he decides he wants to live on his own. Meaning a 25-year-old white Dutch guy can forget about getting his own place and ends up on waiting lists for 10+ years," she wrote, adding: "Putting the interests of foreigners above the interests of the native population needs to end."

Boekholt-O'Sullivan, an Irish-born former lieutenant general in the Dutch Air Force who took office earlier this year, claims that anyone who wants to live in the Netherlands should get a roof but does not address the major housing crisis brought on by mass immigration.

"For me, the fundamental principle is that anyone who is allowed to and wants to live in the Netherlands gets a roof over their head," she said. She noted that status holders typically leave asylum reception centers and argued that alternatives such as remaining in centers, homelessness, hotels or cruise ships were unacceptable, so priority allocation should continue until other solutions exist.

The remarks landed amid fresh data underscoring migration's outsized role in the Netherlands' housing crunch. A report released this week by the Economic Institute for Construction (EIB) found that migration accounted for about 60 percent of additional housing demand between 2015 and 2024. Migrants who arrived in that period occupied roughly 435,000 homes by 2024, out of nearly 700,000 homes added to the stock.

In addition, data shows that migrants occupy 44 percent of the 2.2 million social housing units in the country.

The 44 percent figure of social housing units occupied by first or second-generation immigrants has doubled from 22 percent in 2000, and is forecast to rise to 51 percent by 2030.

A total of 92 percent of Syrian first-generation immigrants reside in social housing. In addition, 90 percent of those born in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Eritrea reside in social housing.

Asylum-related migration contributes disproportionately to lasting demand because status holders remain permanently at high rates, unlike many labor or student migrants who leave within a decade.

Critics said the minister's comments minimized the burdens on young Dutch adults who have already spent years on waiting lists for social housing or who face high private rents and purchase prices that lock them out of independent living.

Social housing waiting lists in major cities often stretch many years; priority rules for status holders allow some recent arrivals to bypass ordinary queues. Dutch population growth in recent years has been driven almost entirely by net migration, amplifying pressure on an already constrained housing market marked by strict planning rules, nitrogen regulations and slow construction.

The latest debate about Dutch housing policy and mass immigration is only one aspect of the massive burden foreigners have been on Dutch society, which shows that Dutch taxpayers have spent €400 billion on migrants between 1995 and 2019.

The landmark study, entitled "Borderless Welfare State: The Consequences of Immigration on Public Finances," shows that net costs of immigration to the Dutch public sector over the period 1995-2019 were an astounding €400 billion, averaging €17 billion a year, with a peak of €32 billion in 2016 due to the 2015 refugee crisis.

However, this is far from the total figure. Since 2019, Dutch taxpayers have paid tens of billions more, with no end in sight.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/19/2026 - 02:00

Omar, Obama, And The Danger Of False Identities

Zero Hedge -

Omar, Obama, And The Danger Of False Identities

Authored by J.B. Shurk via American Thinker,

On Columbus Day, Homeland Security Investigations executed a judicially authorized search warrant of Representative Ilhan Omar's home. For several months, there have been rumors that she was under investigation for immigration fraud. A few weeks ago, White House Border Czar Tom Homan acknowledged that the congresswoman was the subject of an ongoing criminal investigation. U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro says her office is investigating Omar for potential financial crimes. The D.C. magistrate judge who authorized the search of Omar's residence is a registered Democrat who donated to Hillary Clinton and received professional appointments from other Democrats.

Despite the fact that Democrats wholeheartedly cheered when President Joe Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland authorized FBI agents to use deadly force against the Trump family when they raided his Mar-a-Lago home in 2022 to retrieve evidence of the Department of Justice's unlawful spying operations against Republican politicians during Barack Obama's presidency, the people who repeatedly told us for years that "nobody is above the law" now insist that the raid of Omar's residence is an "abuse of power," "political retribution," and the act of "a fascist police state."

As news of the Omar raid broke, CNN's Jake Tapper called it "vindictive" and questioned whether it was a "legitimate law enforcement action." Tapper's supposedly expert guest - a Democrat lawfare operative - responded to the host's predetermined judgment of the investigation by calling it, "Partisan. Racism. Xenophobia."

Bill Kristol - who, amazingly enough, was once regarded as a trusted public intellectual among Republican voters before revealing himself to have been a complete fraud who lied about almost everything he long claimed to believe - posted this urgent request on X: "Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country." When FBI agents were pawing through First Lady Melania Trump's undergarments back in 2022, Kristol encouraged Americans to be patient and to avoid any rush to judgment - even though the criminal targeting of an American president was unprecedented and shocking.

MS NOW's "Justice and Intel Reporter," Ken Dilanian pointed out that most immigrants' naturalization paperwork contains "fudged facts" - essentially arguing that since many foreigners lie to authorities, Omar shouldn't be singled out and prosecuted for committing immigration fraud. This is a rather unjust double standard for a "justice" reporter to articulate given that Americans who "fudge facts" on legal documents are regularly prosecuted for the crimes of misrepresentation, forgery, and fraud.

Unless and until Representative Omar is actually indicted, the public will have to wait to read about the particular facts of her case. It is worth noting, however, that numerous allegations have swirled around the congresswoman for years. Several of her Democrat primary opponents alleged that she had committed immigration fraud on behalf of herself and other members of her family. Public investigations suggest that she falsified her birthdate in order to obtain naturalized citizenship. There have been reports that she married her biological brother as part of a fraudulent scheme to provide him American citizenship. A number of historians claim that Omar's father "misrepresented himself as a refugee" and was instead a military commander in a Somali dictatorship responsible for several hundred thousand murders. The congresswoman insists that her birth records were destroyed during Somalia's civil war (a bloody conflict during which her father may have committed crimes against humanity).

Perhaps we will learn whether these allegations have merit in the months ahead. What I do know is that this inquiry is long overdue. The appearance of impropriety has followed Representative Omar even before she joined Congress in 2019. Allegations of immigration fraud have been loud - including the unsavory claim that she married her brother - yet neither congressional leaders nor federal officials have been inclined to investigate the matter more fully until now. The lack of curiosity and continued silence from authorities have been impossible for the American people to ignore.

Two-tiered justice in the United States has been with us for quite some time. Democrat lawfare drove President Nixon from the White House. President Bill Clinton targeted Christians and gun-owners and reoriented intelligence agencies away from communist organizations that were monitored during the Cold War and toward "right-wing" groups that had never posed a national security threat.

When President Obama took the reins of the federal government, he combined Clinton's targeting of conservatives with President Bush's new domestic surveillance system authorized by the USA PATRIOT Act and maliciously - yet ironically - redefined American patriots as "potential domestic terrorists." Over the course of the Obama and Biden presidencies, Christians, conservatives, libertarians, and Republican voters have been investigated for imaginary "crimes" at the behest of Democrat partisans within the federal government.

When a woman from Somalia can come to the United States and join Congress with less scrutiny than a random American Christian receives for praying outside an abortion clinic or carrying a firearm, the entire government - especially the criminal justice system - loses credibility, if not legitimacy.

Congresswoman Omar is certainly not the first member of the federal government to have been accused of committing identity fraud. Although the corporate "news" oligarchy and the political Establishment did their best to cover up the story, there were serious allegations against Barack Obama, including claims that he was not born an American citizen and was therefore ineligible to become president of the United States. As the propaganda press and the Democrat Party are doing today with regard to claims of immigration fraud against Omar, those institutions have told the American people for two decades that doubting the authenticity of Obama's Hawaiian birth certificate is an act of "racism" and "white supremacy."

However, as investigative researcher "Sundance" over at The Conservative Treehouse has long argued, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence suggesting that former CIA Director John Brennan conspired with others to scrub records from federal systems that showed Obama is not exactly who he claims to be.

Back in 2008, Brennan was an intelligence adviser to presidential candidate Obama and the CEO of an intelligence-related consulting group called The Analysis Corporation. That firm was implicated in a breach of the State Department's passport office, when one of Brennan's contract employees accessed the records of Obama, as well as those of Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Brennan's company later released this statement: "This individual's actions were taken without the knowledge or direction of anyone at The Analysis Corp. and are wholly inconsistent with our professional and ethical standards."

The State Department's inspector general later concluded that the hacker specifically sought Obama's passport file and accessed the Clinton and McCain files to create confusion for investigators. What may have been deleted from Obama's files is unknown. At the time of the incident, the Obama campaign denounced the "outrageous breach of security and privacy, even from an Administration that has shown little regard for either over the last eight years." Obama appointed Brennan director of the CIA five years later.

Obama also told reporters that any investigation "should be done in conjunction with those congressional committees that have oversight so it's not simply an internal matter." Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden had oversight over the Foreign Service and passport office and was in charge of the investigation into the breach of Obama's records. Obama chose Biden as his vice presidential running mate.

Later, State Department employee Lt. Quarles Harris, Jr. - who apparently penetrated the database and likely scrubbed Obama's records - was found dead. He had been shot twice in the head (described as "execution style"), but his death was ruled a "suicide." Lt. Harris was cooperating with investigators concerning the State Department breach at the time of his death. "Sundance" implicates John Brennan in both Harris's death and the later death of investigative journalist Michael Hastings.

Barack Obama successfully hid his identity. Perhaps Ilhan Omar has John Brennan on retainer, too. We'll see.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 23:30

Putin Proposes Summit With Trump And Xi To Negotiate End Of Ukraine War; Zelensky Not Invited

Zero Hedge -

Putin Proposes Summit With Trump And Xi To Negotiate End Of Ukraine War; Zelensky Not Invited

Amid an escalating war that appears to get farther from any hope of a ceasefire, let alone peace, late on Sunday the WSJ reported that Vladimir Putin has proposed that he, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet next month to talk about Ukraine in an attempt to negotiate an end to the four-year conflict that would favor Moscow.

Citing people familiar with the discussions, the WSJ notes that the plan represents an effort by Putin to capitalize on warming ties between Trump and the Russian leader that have alarmed Ukraine and its allies in Washington and Europe. Such a summit - one notably without the involvement of Zelensky who appears to have terminally alienated Trump in recent days - would be "unprecedented and send alarm bells ringing in European capitals and beyond."

According to a former Russian intelligence officer briefed on the matter, Putin floated the idea in an Oct. 9 phone call with Trump. That conversation also produced a deal for the U.S. to buy Russian diesel fuel and facilitate its sale on the global market. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that discussions were taking place over a potential meeting. 

“There is no clear understanding yet regarding the meeting itself or its potential agenda, although all three parties acknowledge the hypothetical possibility of such a meeting taking place,” he told The Wall Street Journal.

A senior US official said that while Trump hadn’t agreed to such a summit, he said that the president could be receptive to the idea, given his desire to fulfill a campaign promise to settle the war. Trump had said it would be finished on “day one” of his new term, but he is now approaching nearly two years in office. 

The Kremlin has suggested holding the trilateral dialogue on the sidelines of the coming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, the people familiar with discussions said. That gathering takes place on Nov. 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, the southern Chinese tech hub. 

A potential three-way dialogue on Chinese soil would mark a big step for Xi in his efforts to elevate China’s role as a diplomatic power broker, said analysts who study China. Russian officials proposed the idea to Beijing through diplomatic channels and the Chinese side has indicated it wouldn’t object if Trump is on board.

“China wants to be seen as the pivot of the great powers, and potentially as a mediator between the U.S. and Russia,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank.

While Putin had unsuccessfully proposed a trilateral summit to both Trump and Xi on previous occasions, this time, however, it comes during a reversal of Moscow’s fortunes with Washington. 

Trump just notched a deal with Putin to get Russian diesel in a bid to lower fuel prices that have slowed the American economy and hurt Republican prospects ahead of the midterm elections. On Friday, Trump halted implementation of sanctions that were to be imposed on Russia under a bipartisan bill he signed last month, drawing criticism from lawmakers, including some of his allies.

The senior White House official said Trump made the decisions after seeing few other good options to lower prices.

At a time when Diesel prices are soaring, in part due to limited Russian exports amid a constant drone campaign waged by Ukraine against its refineries, Trump has shown renewed frustration with Zelensky, saying the Ukrainian leader must stop strikes on Russian refineries and suggesting that the country needs a new president. U.S.-led efforts to broker an end to the war, meanwhile, have been largely stalled.

In a post on Truth Social on Sunday, Trump took aim at Zelensky, following Ukraine’s strike on an oil terminal in Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg earlier in the day. He accused the Ukrainian leader of targeting Russian diesel refineries and said he “doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did.” The president said he was holding off on imposing sanctions because he didn’t want to drive Russia away from the bargaining table. “I WANT THIS WAR END!” he wrote. 

According to the WSJ, Moscow sees a potential trilateral dialogue as a way of cementing Russia’s membership in a club of great global powers, a status Putin has sought since he entered the Kremlin in 2000. The format also excludes from the picture Europe, which the Kremlin sees as its main obstacle to clinching victory in Ukraine. 

The former Russian intelligence officer who was the WSJ source, said Putin has broad, if unrealistic, ambitions for the trilateral format as a second Yalta summit, which would divide up the globe into spheres of influence. 

Even if Xi and Trump are unlikely to agree to that, the image of the American, Russian and Chinese leaders negotiating the fate of one nation would be a powerful signal. In Taipei, it could reinforce fears that Taiwan’s own future might be one day bargained over in a similar forum, particularly as Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring the self-governing democratic island under its control.

That said, a summit isn’t without risk for Xi. Chinese officials have concerns about allowing a geopolitical side show to overshadow their designs to use APEC as a showcase of China’s role in the region, said some of the people close to the discussions.

Xi is attempting to walk a fine line between continuing his support for Putin and maintaining China’s economic ties with Europe, the people said. A trilateral meeting like this could risk drawing China more directly into the Ukraine conflict and provoke a backlash from European capitals already wary of Beijing’s tilt toward Moscow. Although, with most European capitals desperate to either export or import from China, it isn't clear what if anything that can do to express their "outrage."

***

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 22:45

Trump Issues Full-Throated Endorsement Of Netanyahu Ahead Of Tough Election

Zero Hedge -

Trump Issues Full-Throated Endorsement Of Netanyahu Ahead Of Tough Election

In what should come as no big surprise at all, President Trump has issued a whole-hearted endorsement for Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday as next Israeli prime minister.

Axios points out, "This is the first time in the history of the U.S.–Israel relations that a U.S. president explicitly and publicly endorsed a candidate in the Israeli elections."

Getty Images

There's a mere nine days to go before the country's Oct.27 elections, and domestically Netanyahu has long been accused of prolonging and escalating conflicts in order to sell himself as the necessary 'wartime president'.

Axios further observes that Trump's endorsement was 'needed' as most polls show Netanyahu's coalition "falling short of the 61 seats needed to form a government."

Trump himself on Truth Social touted Bibi as "a Great Warrior Prime Minister" and a "great partner" in the war against Iran.

"If Israel has the wrong Leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work [in Iran] ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so," Trump wrote.

The post is full of lavish praise about how Netanyahu 'thrives' under pressure and that most "normal men and women" would in the same situations "would have wilted under pressure."

Political opponents are lambasting inappropriate 'foreign intervention' while Netanyahu is really soaking in and making the most of Trump's full explicit backing:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Israel could face a “hostile” US president in two years, emphasizing the need to capitalize on the time remaining in US President Donald Trump’s term.

“There is a window of another two years with President Trump, and one of the questions in these elections is who will work with Trump? Who will complete the remaining work?” Netanyahu said.

The full post:

Early on, after the US launched Operation Epic Fury, a slew of top admin officials including Marco Rubio admitted that the war is happening to defend Israel from the Iranian threat, and focused on preventing Tehran from getting nuclear weapons.

The White House has since tried to downplay it, but this remains the publicly articulated rationale among admin legal and official memos defending the 'legal justification' of the war. A State Department publication issued on April 21 of this year stated firmly: "As the United States has explained in multiple letters to the U.N. Security Council, including most recently on March 10, the United States is engaged in this conflict at the request of and in the collective self-defense of its Israeli ally, as well as in the exercise of the United States’ own inherent right of self-defense."

At this point Trump might need Netanyahu for whatever next rounds of bombing break out, but more importantly Bibi needs Trump. Iranian leaders have warned that if the Islamic Republic comes under direct bombing raids again, Israel would in turn likely face Iran's ballistic missiles once again.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 22:35

Pentagon Plans To Withhold Report on Minab School Massacre Past Midterms

Zero Hedge -

Pentagon Plans To Withhold Report on Minab School Massacre Past Midterms

Authored by Dave DeCamp via Antiwar.com,

Bloomberg reported on Thursday that top Pentagon officials have expressed that they will withhold the release of an internal report on the US bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab, southern Iran, which massacred at least 120 children, through the midterm elections.

According to an earlier Bloomberg investigation into the attack, within hours of the strikes, Pentagon personnel were aware that the US was responsible, but the Trump administration has still not admitted to carrying out the attack.

The new Bloomberg report said that advisors to US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth have conveyed to other Pentagon personnel that the report on the massacre, which found flawed intelligence, outdated imagery, and an overreliance on AI contributed to the attack, will not be shared with the public before the November 3 elections.

Officials said the investigation has been all but complete for several months.

The exact toll in the bombing varies, with Bloomberg putting the number of children killed at 123, while the general prosecutor in Minab said in early April that the final death toll was 156, including 120 students - 73 boys, 47 girls - 26 female teachers, the unborn child of a pregnant teacher, seven parents, a school bus driver, and a technician at a nearby clinic.

Drop Site News recently published an extensive report on the massacre from the perspective of the parents of the people who experienced it, including parents and relatives of children who were killed, children who survived, rescue workers, and teachers.

The massacre is one of the worst US war crimes since the Vietnam War, and it came after Hegseth hollowed out mechanisms meant to reduce civilian harm.

Last month, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) introduced a resolution to impeach Hegseth that included an article about how the Pentagon chief ignored US laws meant to minimize civilian harm and tied it to the bombing of the Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School.

"The elementary school was struck after Secretary Hegseth sought to repeal congressionally mandated civilian-protection requirements, dismantled the Department's civilian-harm mitigation infrastructure, removed the senior-most Judge Advocates General responsible for independent legal oversight, stripped civilian protection from the National Defense Strategy, and publicly denigrated legal restraints on military force as obstacles to 'maximum lethality,'" the resolution reads.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 22:10

Egypt Approves Troop Deployment In Support Of Saudi Arabia

Zero Hedge -

Egypt Approves Troop Deployment In Support Of Saudi Arabia

Via The Cradle

Egypt announced on Sunday that it has approved the deployment of troops to Saudi Arabia on a "defensive mission" to help the kingdom protect itself from the retaliatory military operations carried out by the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF).

The Egyptian House of Representatives held "an emergency session to discuss the President of the Republic and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces’ decision to send military forces to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on a defensive mission," said MP Mostafa Bakry.

Source: Egyptian Presidency

"The National Defense Council, chaired by the president, concluded its meeting and approved the deployment of the forces and the mission assigned to them," he added. 

He said that "Egypt has never abandoned its pan-Arab role in protecting Arab national security. For us, Saudi Arabia is part of Egypt’s own national security, and any threat to its security and stability is a threat to us."

On Saturday, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi called for the authorization of defensive measures in support of Saudi Arabia, which has been waging a brutal war and blockade against Yemen for over a decade.

"Egypt is ready to take any measure Saudi Arabia requests to defend its security and sovereignty," the Egyptian president said. 

The news follows the reported activation of the Mecca Defense Pact between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkiye.

Pakistani jets have reportedly been striking Yemen, yet Islamabad denied this. Thousands of Pakistani troops are in the kingdom, and Turkiye is also said to be making significant equipment and personnel deployments that are being used against Yemen.

The Ansarallah-led YAF announced it shot down a Saudi attack helicopter in a statement on Sunday, releasing footage of the operation.

The footage shows “the targeting and downing of a Saudi AH-6i attack helicopter with an indigenously manufactured surface-to-air missile while it was carrying out hostile activities off the coast of Najran.” The Saudi-led coalition confirmed that the whole crew was killed.

Earlier, Saudi airstrikes hit Hodeidah in western Yemen. According to the YAF, over 2,500 Saudi attacks have been launched against Yemen since the kingdom’s escalation against the country in July.

The Saudi escalation has killed dozens of civilians. In response, Saudi Arabia’s airports, military bases, and energy sites have been under heavy missile and drone fire from the YAF.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 21:20

"They Will All Go To Jail": Trump Threatens California Election Officials If They Let Non-Citizens Vote

Zero Hedge -

"They Will All Go To Jail": Trump Threatens California Election Officials If They Let Non-Citizens Vote

On Friday President Donald Trump warned California election officials that they will go to prison if they count mail-in ballots from about 20,000 people who have been identified as possible noncitizens by the federal government, intensifying the legal dispute with the state mere weeks before the midterm elections.

FILE – Ballots are sorted the day after California’s primary election at the LA County Ballot Processing Center, June 3, 2026, in City of Industry, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)

California's voter registration system relies on applicants attesting to their own citizenship, and county officials argued that the system obligates them to count ballots from registered voters. The Trump administration disagrees.

"They will all go to jail for a long period of time!!!" Trump wrote on Truth Social on Oct. 16. He attached a copy of a Justice Department letter to Los Angeles County that promised "significant" consequences for "facilitating or ignoring" noncitizens voting in a federal election.

"The legal consequences for either facilitating or ignoring a federal crime are significant," the letter reads. "Noncitizen voting in a federal election is a federal crime-and knowingly facilitating such conduct is equally unlawful. Under 18 U.S.C. § 611(a), noncitizens are prohibited from voting in any election involving federal offices."

The letter continued:

Under 18 U.S.C. § 2, anyone who aids, abets, counsels, induces, or procures the commission of a federal offense is equally liable. If persons knowingly tabulate ballots cast by individuals identified by federal agencies as noncitizens, they risk becoming aiders and abettors to a federal crime. Your assertion that ballots must be counted simply because California's registration system relies on self-attestation does not relieve election officials of their obligations under federal law when they are on actual notice of noncitizen voting. Nor can state procedures supersede federal criminal statutes.

Trump's post followed a week of escalating federal action. Earlier in the week, the DOJ mailed California election officials a USB drive containing voter roll citizenship data, then sent a separate letter with the password needed to open it. According to a report from The Hill, the state had 48 hours to compare 20,000 names that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) identified as non-U.S. citizens against its own voter rolls.

On Thursday, the DOJ sued California. "If California was unable to independently confirm the citizenship of people on that list, the Federal Government asked that California set aside ballots received from them until the person's citizenship was confirmed," the lawsuit reads.

Under this approach, the state would hold the ballots in question until officials verified the voters' citizenship. The lawsuit does not ask California to discard the ballots outright.

Earlier this year, Trump said California and three other states together had 250,000 noncitizens on their voter rolls. His opponents dispute that number.

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom called the lawsuit a "sad, desperate attempt by Trump to use his politicized Justice Department to try to suppress California voters just three weeks before Election Day."

"The courts have made clear that the federal government has no role in how a state carries out its election process, and now, in the middle of Californians voting, they have asked local officials - who do a damn good job defending democracy - to violate federal law," Newsom said, but did not specify which federal law he claims the DOJ's request would require local officials to break.

Outside groups have also moved against the administration. In September, the UCLA Voting Rights Project sued the DOJ and DHS, challenging the method the administration used to count noncitizens registered to vote. The group plans to seek a temporary restraining order if the administration does not drop its plans for a criminal crackdown on state officials.

"Your clients' actions in compiling the list violates established law; your efforts to employ this list to systematically purge voters, less than a month before the election, further violates the National Voter Registration Act, among other laws," attorneys for the group claimed in their latest letter to the DOJ.

***

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 20:55

Saudi Arabia At The Breaking Point

Zero Hedge -

Saudi Arabia At The Breaking Point

Authored by Larry C. Johnson via Sonar 21,

For most of this war, Saudi Arabia has been the shock absorber of the world oil market. When Hormuz closed, Riyadh pushed crude west through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea and kept at least part of its exports moving. That bypass is now under attack. Ansar Allah has seized islands at the mouth of the Red Sea, declared a "maritime ban" on Saudi shipping and claimed strikes on Saudi airports, and in September drones knocked the East-West pipeline largely out of service. Riyadh blamed that strike on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. On October 4 a pumping station at Khurais, east of Riyadh, was hit for the first time and the pipeline stopped again.

Karl Miller, whose earlier assessment of the global fuel emergency I have drawn on before, has just completed a new analysis of what this means for Saudi Arabia and for the world. His conclusion is stark: the Gulf's energy system will take far longer and cost far more to rebuild than anyone in Washington is admitting, and Saudi Arabia can no longer be counted on to cover the gap. Here are his key findings.

1. The bypass is the weak point

Miller's starting point is that a pipeline is not a pipe. It is a connected system of pumping stations, power supplies, controls, storage tanks and loading berths, and it is only as strong as its weakest link. The September damage to the East-West pumping stations, the October interruption at Khurais, a fire at the Riyadh energy complex and the disruption of Saudi aviation all hit that system at different points. The pipeline has been partly restored, but Miller warns that permanent equipment losses remain unresolved. Yanbu can be shut down without a single bomb hitting the port: if crude stops arriving, tankers stop loading.

He also cautions against counting damaged stations as if each represented a fixed share of lost capacity. What matters is throughput, and he measures it against a benchmark of 5.8 million barrels a day through the corridor. A complete interruption for seven days would put 40.6 million barrels of movement at risk; for 30 days, 174 million. He stresses that this is a stress calculation, not a claim that the line is fully shut.

2. The rebuild now runs to 2033–2036

In his previous paper Miller set a five-year horizon for rebuilding the damaged Gulf energy complex. He has now extended it to seven to ten years for the most severely damaged, interconnected systems, meaning recovery between roughly October 2033 and October 2036. Partial output will return sooner, but full, reliable operation will not.

The reason is equipment. Large compressors, turbines, high-voltage transformers, specialized pressure vessels and integrated control systems are custom-built and cannot be pulled from a warehouse. His critical path for replacing such a package is 84 months: a year to define the damage and fund the design, three years to procure and manufacture, two years to deliver and install, and a year to commission and stabilize. Insecure sites, financing gaps, factory queues and repeated attacks could add up to three more years. As he puts it, money can reserve a manufacturing slot, but it cannot compress every stage of engineering and fabrication.

3. A bill of $550 billion to $2.28 trillion

Miller models the reconstruction of the wider Gulf energy system, Saudi Arabia included, in three scenarios. He is explicit that these are funding envelopes built on stated assumptions, not audited damage estimates and not a Saudi-only bill.

  Controlled Central Severe Base reconstruction capital $400 bn $800 bn $1,400 bn Execution uplift (security, delays, escalation) $100 bn $280 bn $630 bn Finance and startup liquidity $50 bn $120 bn $250 bn Total funding envelope $550 bn $1.20 trn $2.28 trn

Source: Karl W. Miller, Saudi Arabia: The Breaking Point (12 October 2026). Covers the broader Gulf reconstruction portfolio.

In the central case, $180 billion must be committed in the first two years alone, rising to $540 billion in years three to five. Over seven years that averages more than $170 billion a year. And every Gulf state will be competing for the same manufacturers, engineering firms, fabrication yards and specialist crews. A transformer slot taken by Kuwait or Qatar is one that Saudi Arabia does not get.

4. Delay is expensive

Miller puts numbers on what waiting costs. A three-year delay on the central program could add $76 billion to $125 billion in cost escalation and another $42 billion to $90 billion in financing charges. Meanwhile the fuel must still be bought somewhere: each year that 1 million barrels a day of fuel supply stays offline means 365 million barrels to replace, about $55 billion at his illustrative price of $150 a barrel. Leaving his full 3 million barrel-a-day gap unrepaired for three more years implies nearly $500 billion in replacement purchases.

5. The diesel gap gets wider

Miller's baseline remains a minimum global shortfall of 3 million barrels a day of diesel and jet fuel. The Saudi attacks threaten to push it higher. If disruption leaves 1 million barrels a day of crude unable to reach working refineries, the loss of diesel and jet fuel is roughly 300,000 to 450,000 barrels a day. An additional net loss of 500,000 barrels a day would raise his baseline to 3.5 million, an increase of one-sixth, adding 15 million barrels of shortfall every month.

He is careful not to double count: lost crude, the refinery output it would have produced and the missed export cargo may all be the same barrels. But the direction is clear. Saudi Arabia was the Gulf's main source of relief. If its bypass is unreliable, the global deficit grows.

6. America cannot fill the hole

Miller's test of American capacity is sobering. Over the four weeks to October 2, US refineries produced about 5.17 million barrels a day of distillate, exported 1.56 million and used 3.77 million at home. Replacing a 3 million barrel-a-day gap from the United States alone would require 58% more distillate output than American refineries produce today. US production is only about 150,000 barrels a day higher than a year ago; the global gap is nearly 20 times that. Promising more exports does not create more fuel. It simply moves the shortage from one buyer to another and drains American inventories.

7. Food, freight and flights

The fuel crisis is already reaching the real economy. Cereal prices are 17.2% higher than a year ago. Farmers need diesel before the harvest pays, truckers before their invoices are settled, and refrigeration before food reaches the shelf. Airlines need certified jet fuel at the airports they serve, and diesel cannot substitute for it. Miller's warning is that the weakest buyers, countries short of foreign exchange and credit, will not just pay more. They will be priced out entirely.

My take

Miller's assessment confirms what I have been arguing for months: the energy damage from this war is not a temporary price spike that ends when a ceasefire is signed. Reopening a shipping lane does not rebuild a refinery. Saudi Arabia, which only months ago was the world's insurance policy, is now itself a source of risk, and its economy shows it: Saudi oil activity fell by a quarter in the second quarter and GDP shrank 4.8%. The rebuilding of the Gulf will be measured in years and trillions of dollars, and the world will be short of diesel for much of that time.

That should be the frame for every promise coming out of Washington, whether it is Russian diesel, export bans or claims that prices are about to fall. As Miller concludes, recovery will be proven by fuel actually delivered, not by repairs announced or by a lower headline price.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 20:10

X Gets "Stronger" As Threads And Bluesky Quarantine The "Worst People On The Internet"

Zero Hedge -

X Gets "Stronger" As Threads And Bluesky Quarantine The "Worst People On The Internet"

Meta Platforms' Threads and rival Bluesky have devolved into far-left echo chambers that some describe as platforms for the clinically insane, where intelligent conversations are severely lacking and discussions become shouting matches among those suffering from "Trump Derangement Syndrome" and infected by the woke mind virus.

That concentration of left-wing lunatics on Threads and Bluesky may be strengthening X's competitive position, making it more attractive to professional users and youngsters seeking competing viewpoints and substantive conversations across the political spectrum and about current trends in the real world. 

Nikita Bier, who most recently led X's product development, took to X over the weekend to explain that "Threads was an existential risk to X" last year, but that the threat has largely dissipated.

Bier explains: 

Last year I thought Threads was an existential risk to X.

When Meta puts its full weight behind something, by injecting the app into Instagram, it's DEFCON 5:

You have to squeeze out every last drop of growth from all available surfaces to save the app.

However, I started to realize that the opposite was happening:

It was strengthening X.

If you look at any announcement by Zuck, you will see the most rude & toxic comments on the internet.

But when he makes those same announcements on X, people are thrilled about how he's pushing humanity forward. X is a place where people are excited about the future, so it's no surprise he and his top lieutenants are using it more than their own app.

Threads, and Bluesky, have effectively quarantined some of the worst people on the internet.

And so I had an epiphany: those apps are X's anti-abuse systems.

Bier's revelation comes one week after he cited what appears to be internal X data that shows Bluesky users have been "coming back to X in droves the last few weeks." 

Elon Musk responded to our note on this development, confirming it as "true." 

Let's take a stroll down memory lane and remind readers that PR firms and corporate media ran an information campaign centered around the key phrase "Twitter Killer" when Bluesky really gained traction in 2023. 

However, that information operation gained limited traction. 

X has challenged globalist corporate media's role as the primary gatekeeper of information, shifting influence toward the accounts and networks users choose to follow. Its appeal extends to discussions, where competing voices across the political spectrum can have civilized conversations and challenge prevailing narratives. Threads and Bluesky have struggled to replicate X's ecosystem, as it has merely become a 'safe space' for left-wing extremism. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 18:00

NRC Backs Fermi's Four Texas Reactors

Zero Hedge -

NRC Backs Fermi's Four Texas Reactors

Fermi America's nuclear plans just cleared their first regulatory hurdle.

NRC staff have preliminarily recommended issuing combined licenses for four Westinghouse AP1000 reactors at Project Matador, Fermi's planned power and AI campus outside Amarillo, Texas, according to a draft environmental impact statement the agency put out for comment on October 9th.

Together, the four units would add over 4.4 GW of nuclear generation capacity to the private grid.

It took 15 months from application, and Fermi wrote the draft itself as the first test of an NRC pilot that lets applicants prepare their own environmental reviews under staff supervision. The agency expects that to cut its in-house review time by about half.

The NRC is targeting a final version in December. The harder part is the safety review, which has no schedule yet. Fermi pulled the site-specific portion of its application and plans to refile it by Dec. 31, and a mandatory hearing and Commission vote come after that. 

Fermi wants its first reactor running by 2032, meaning the NRC is far from the company's problem.

Last November, we warned that storm clouds were gathering as Fermi struggled to sign its first major tenant. A month later, the stock cratered 50% when that prospect pulled out of a $150 million construction funding agreement. 

In April, shares crashed another 22% after the board ousted co-founder and CEO Toby Neugebauer and the CFO resigned. As we put it then, "without tenants there is no company."

But, Fermi finally has one, on paper. In August, it signed a binding 15-year lease with TensorWave, an AMD-only GPU cloud, for 222 MW worth about $6.5 billion, with options to expand past 650 MW. 

Phased delivery starts in the second half of 2027.

The lease hasn't closed yet. Fermi pushed the deadline from Sept. 30 to Oct. 31 to finish a lease guarantee, and it still needs project financing. On Tuesday, AMD agreed to provide credit support for the lease.

So AMD sells TensorWave its chips, has invested in TensorWave, and now backs TensorWave's lease. Circular?

Still waiting on first power

On-site power is running behind. Last November, Fermi promised "1 GW of capacity online by late 2026." As of August, they moved the goal posts to "about 200 megawatts of initial commercial power over the next six months."

Fermi has taken delivery of six Siemens SGT-800s (nearly 300 MW) and three larger Siemens F-class units, and three GE Vernova 6B turbines reached the site recently. NAES has been hired to run the fleet, and Hillcore Energy Capital has signed a framework deal to finance, build and own about 2.6 GW more on site.

The old founder won't let go

Neugebauer, still Fermi's largest shareholder, sued over his firing in May. 

He suspended a campaign to call a special meeting in July, and last month a Texas Business Court judge declined to temporarily block a 70% supermajority bylaw and new voting rules the board adopted after his ouster. He has since sued three directors.

The board, meanwhile, named former TerraPower CEO and Bechtel veteran Lee McIntire as CEO in August.

The next few weeks will be busy:

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 12:00

The Left's Rank Hypocrisy On 'Socialist Influencers'

Zero Hedge -

The Left's Rank Hypocrisy On 'Socialist Influencers'

Authored by Thaddeus G. McCotter via American Greatness,

Far-left candidates court socialist influencers in primaries, then pivot to the center for the general election...

If memory serves me, while serving in Congress amidst a heated midterm battle in the mid-2000s, I made a cable television appearance where I was asked an "ambush" question. Well, it wasn't quite an ambush question, because the station in question was left-wing; hence, the anchor's Pavlovian parroting of the Democrat talking point du jour was really no surprise. The question was something along the lines of "Does every Republican blindly listen to Rush?"

"Who doesn't love a Canadian power rock trio?" I replied. My interrogator was nonplussed. I elaborated, "Though I do prefer Triumph."

In truth, the Rush in question was actually Mr. Limbaugh, who was at the height of his renown. Looking for an issue, the Democrats trotted out the canard that Republicans didn't work for their constituents but were in the thrall of a radio show host, following his dictates heedless of what the public wanted.

The Democrats' strategy quickly petered out, largely because Mr. Limbaugh's pro-American and commonsensical views were shared by scores of millions of Americans. Thus, even if some Republicans were influenced to one degree or another by Rush's views, those views were also shared by many of their right- and center-right constituents, who formed the base of their electoral coalition.

What evokes this memory is how the rank hypocrisy of today's leftists, particularly the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), regards their associations with social media, particularly radical leftist socialist influencers - one of whom, in fact, claims to aspire to being the radical version of Rush Limbaugh.*

The ideological difference between Mr. Limbaugh and today's shrill leftist socialist influencers is patent, as their anti-American content readily attests to their quest for clicks, celebrity, and money. (At present, I am unaware of these socialist influencers voluntarily putting their streaming revenues into a pool to be apportioned by a commissar for the common good of the oppressed.)

Be it hating all Americans or - as if to prove the depths of their animus - justifying the murderous terrorist attacks on our nation on September 11, 2001, or rationalizing away domestic left-wing political violence, these socialist influencers, to varying degrees of self-indulgent animus and self-imposed ignorance, aver that the "United States of Amerika" is irredeemably racist, misogynistic, inequitable, and wholly corrupt, and must be radically transformed into a socialist utopia by an omnipotent government controlled and commanded by them and their bilious, unproductive ilk, who have never run anything but their mouths.

Sane people would be tempted to think these anti-American, socialist cranks would be ignored by sound minds. They are. But sound minds are in ever-shortening supply these days. That is why they are increasingly being listened to and heeded by politically like-minded listeners.

In the instances of those listeners who become DSA and other ideologically aligned far-left candidates, there is the question of how truly they dance to the socialist influencers' tune - especially in electoral areas that are not deep blue progressive hellscapes.

What happens is the far-left candidate proclaims to the far-left, socialist, America-loathing voters how they, too, share that view. To help prove their bona fides as radicals and defeat a Democrat establishment candidate in a primary, they associate and, in some cases, physically appear with socialist influencers on the campaign trail.

Once they win their primary, however, the far-left/DSA Democrat realizes that America-loathing is not a great general election issue, so they begin to distance themselves not only from such socialist influencers but also from their own words.

One would hope such cynical duplicity would be readily identified so voters could factor it into their considerations. Unfortunately, we live in a world where the deceitfully named "accountability journalism" is a pandemic transmogrifying objective reporting into propaganda. As a result, when the far-left candidate is called on the carpet about embracing socialist influencers, the crucial bloc of independents views it, if at all, as just another partisan attack.

Consequently, the far-left/DSA candidate can casually dissemble how they are not there to disavow any social media influencer and how any past association with socialist influencers is a distraction by their GOP opponent, indeed a smear tactic. As they cynically race from the radical Left to the center in a general election, the far-left/DSA candidate hopes the voters miss the abject deceit in this defense.

The far-left/DSA candidate has actively embraced and aligned with the America-hating socialist influencer to court like-minded America-loathing socialists in his or her electoral coalition. Thus, while the far-left/DSA candidate claims not to have "disavowed" the socialist influencer, that is already known, because the fact is the far-left/DSA candidate has knowingly and cynically aligned with the socialist influencer and their listeners to win the primary.

Now, not wanting to lose these critical members of their electoral coalition, the far-left/DSA candidate gives a wink and a nod in the general election to keep their votes in his or her pocket without alienating independent and traditional Democrat voters. Meanwhile, this general election conversion from a far-left/DSA candidate into a center-left moderate is abetted by an ideologically sympathetic media that studiously ignores it.

One group that does not ignore it, however, is the socialist influencers. Throughout both their overt primary support and covert support in general elections, they have made no bones about how, once elected, the far-left/DSA candidate will answer to them - or else.

One can only imagine if Rush Limbaugh had made such claims against Republicans. Or, indeed, if Republicans had tried to win primaries by fist-bumping the far-right version of these socialist influencers and then scurrying to the center. They would rightly be pilloried by the press and the electorate.

People of good hearts know that hate is hate regardless of its partisan stripe and that it has no place in our American home. Yet, despite their lawn signs to the contrary, for the far-left/DSA candidates and their friends in a compliant press, not all haters are created equal, and their radical, socialist influencer haters, while muted for the moment as a matter of electoral necessity, are far from appeased.

If these radical socialist influencers get their way and their fellow-traveling far-left/DSA candidates get away with their cynical strategy and win, their America-loathing words will become deeds.

[*Author's note: I did not name the individual social influencers who disdain Americans and our country. I am not in the habit of giving these reprobates what they seek - name recognition, validation, and the clicks they crave that provide the revenue streams needed to propagate their anti-American screeds and promote their "careers." One rightly must support the freedom of speech. But no one is required to promote views they find repugnant. Feel free, however, to look them up and give them a listen, though I advise you to have the Alka-Seltzer handy.]

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 11:30

Migration Has Cost German Taxpayers At Least €400 Billion Since 2016

Zero Hedge -

Migration Has Cost German Taxpayers At Least €400 Billion Since 2016

Authored by - Remix News Staff - via Remix News,

Germany's migration and asylum policies have cost the state at least €400 billion, according to calculations by Welt journalist Björn Harms. Other estimates have gone far higher, including into the trillions, when broader follow-on effects of migration are included. These massive figure will only add to the growing debate about mass immigration into high social-welfare countries like Germany.

As for the data, much of it comes directly from the German government, according to Welt. The federal government alone recorded over €242 billion in "refugee-related expenditures" from 2016 to 2025. Official figures from Bundestag reports and the Federal Ministry of Finance confirm the annual totals.

If this is broken down by year, it shows €20.1 billion in 2016, rising to peaks of €28.3 billion in 2022 and €29.6 billion in 2023, then €28 billion in 2024 and €24.8 billion in 2025.

The sum over ten years is €242.5 billion, representing roughly 5.8 percent of total federal budget outlays over the period. These cover social transfers after asylum procedures, integration measures, payments to states and municipalities, and related programs.

The 16 state governments also contributed more than €100 billion from their own budgets. Municipalities added further billions, along with follow-on costs in healthcare, education, and the justice system. Independent reconstructions place a consolidated central estimate near €340 billion, while others go up to €450 billion with add-ons.

However, even these numbers pale in comparison to what some academics have researched. For example, top German academic on public finances Prof. Bernd Raffelhüschen of the University of Freiburg, produced a study in 2024 that indicated that mass immigration may cost Germany up to €19.2 trillion. His study also found that mass immigration had already cost the country €5.8 trillion.

Harms and others describe the €400 billion figure as a minimum. The reason why this figure is treated as a "minimum" is because experts have been unable to truly compile costs for a broad range of areas, which surely total tens of billions over the course of a decade. These areas include court costs and criminal justice.

Germany spends between €9 billion and €20 billion a year on criminal justice. As Remix News has reported before, an astronomically disproportionate share of these criminals are foreigners, meaning that foreigners are costing Germany billions every year just on criminal justice.

Just one example involves the case of Saudi national Taleb A, who plowed his vehicle into a Christmas market in Magdeburg, Germany, killing six people and injuring over 300. The custom-built court constructed specifically to host the trial of Taleb A. cost €4.5 million.

This specialized, high-security facility was constructed by the court in Magdeburg to handle the large-scale proceedings, which included accommodations and seating space for more than 170 co-plaintiffs and their respective legal teams.

That is just one migrant.

Many other costs are not tallied in the official figures

The billions in criminal justice costs do not even cover police and internal security. Crime has risen in Germany substantially since 2016. During that year, according to Eurostat records, Germany had approximately 244,318 total police officers. At the time, that equated to roughly 2,992 officers per one million people, or a density of around 301 per 100,000 inhabitants.

The Federal Police force has grown to around 55,000 to 60,000 total employees (including roughly 41,000 active frontline officers) to manage expanded mandates across national borders, transportation hubs, and airports.

Paying all these new police officers, who are tasked with policing an increasingly violent country, is not only an enormous cost in terms of money, but has led to tens of thousands of lives shattered and destroyed. When a young woman is raped by a migrant or an aspiring doctor is beaten to the point that he has to abandon his medical career, it is difficult to even calculate the true financial cost of such incidents, but in many ways, these incidents have no price tag. They are too horrific to even quantify.

Of course, there are also tens of billions spent on education for migrants, which are not included in the €400 billion total. In addition, Germany has an extensive network of kindergartens, which foreigners also gain access to. In some states like Berlin, the daycare system is entirely supported by taxpayers to the tune of €2.5 billion a year, while the share of kindergarten-age children with a migration background is at 57.4 percent.

There are also deportation costs, administrative overhead, hospital and medical care, and the list goes on.

The real figure may be difficult to calculate with total accuracy, but it is surely larger than €400 billion.

Germans have also paid in other ways, including in higher rental costs, more traffic, crowded schools, and longer wait times at hospitals. Again, not all of these costs are even quantifiable, but the increase the increase in rental costs alone has cost Germans additional billions.

It is also important to note that there are hundreds of thousands of migrants who are becoming naturalized at a rapid pace and already millions of migrants who have been naturalized in previous decades. These migrants and their children use schools, often require welfare, and also need healthcare. Yet, none of these costs are counted towards the tax burden on Germans. In total, there have been further tens of billions spent on these groups, increasingly in the education system which has the highest share of Germans with a migration background. Many of these groups also continue to be a net economic burden on Germany, such as the Turkish population.

Migrant housing is a huge burden for German taxpayers

Accommodation absorbs a large share. The federal government does not even know the total number of asylum accommodations nationwide. An inquiry by Harms to all 401 districts and independent cities produced responses from 320 (about 80 percent). These authorities reported at least 4,437 communal accommodations housing nearly 295,000 residents as of March 2026 - an average of almost 14 per responding district. Extrapolated nationwide, this implies roughly one person in every 227 in Germany lives in taxpayer-financed asylum accommodation.

Harms notes that hotel owners, private landlords, and public companies have all massively benefited. In Hamburg, the municipal company Fördern & Wohnen, which is 100 percent owned by the city, handles a large share of asylum accommodation. He notes that turnover rose from €60 million in 2013 to €747 million in 2025, and staff grew from 948 employees in 2014 to around 2,228 by 2025.

The company operates more than 200 sites and has expanded capacity amid non-European immigration. A former managing director who served less than five months in 2025 received payments totaling €453,000, including a substantial severance, according to the company's annual report.

Similar patterns appear elsewhere: long-term leases on converted offices and hotels, with public entities acting as both demand drivers and suppliers. In Berlin, a former office complex on Hasenheide in Kreuzberg is becoming an accommodation for up to 921 people. First residents were scheduled to move in from early October 2026. The lease runs roughly ten years, into the mid-2030s, paid from public funds. Conversion costs have not been disclosed, citing commercial confidentiality.

The Hasenheide project and the decade of accumulated costs illustrate the continuity. Rents and operating expenses continue into the 2030s, financed by the same solidarity community that underwrites the wider system.

Migrant welfare is core to the new German economy

The Welt article also notes that immigration since 2015 has driven expansion in the social and welfare sector. The number of social workers and social pedagogues rose from about 278,000 in 2015 to 351,000, with the Federal Employment Agency linking part of the growth to refugee-related demand for counseling, care, and support.

Integration courses illustrate the mixed results of large spending. The federal government has allocated around €1.3 billion in peak years, with 2024 near €1.2 billion before later adjustments. Yet outcomes are limited, according to Welt. Roughly 55 percent of those who take the final test reach the target B1 language level, meaning a substantial share - often cited in the range of six in ten depending on the metric of "graduation" or successful completion of the full course and exam - leave without the intended language qualification. Pass rates for B1 have hovered in the mid-50s in recent data, with many achieving only A2 or lower.

Harms further notes that the business of asylum migration has created durable economic interests. In other words, there are people and institutions getting rich for the millions of migrant who have come, which fuels demands for even more immigration.

Public companies, private landlords, course providers, NGOs, and expanded social services all draw ongoing revenue. Critics note that the loudest advocates of open borders and expansive humanitarianism rarely live next to the accommodations or send their children to the schools under the greatest pressure. Residents in affected neighborhoods and local workers experience the practical strains directly.

While governments speak of a "migration turnaround," the broader pro-migration complex continues. Demands for a world without borders, which claim "no human is illegal," persist among advocacy groups. These powerful groups have a keen interest in keeping the mass migration machine going, and so far, they have largely succeeded even if the majority of Germans are opposed.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/18/2026 - 07:00

Watergate, A Hoax?

Zero Hedge -

Watergate, A Hoax?

Authored by Silvio Canto, Jr. via American Thinker,

If you are a baby boomer, you remember The Beatles, Henry Aaron hitting #715, and President Nixon resigning over Watergate. It was our soundtrack, as they like to say. It gave us words like "Nixonian" and "The Saturday Night Massacre" and Oval Office tapes. It turned the 37th president into an evil man, and everyone took a shot at him. Even the GOP took down his pictures at the party's convention.

As someone who admired President Nixon, bought and read all of his post presidency books, and volunteered as a student for his 1972 reelection campaign, I do believe that revisiting Watergate is a good idea. Maybe The Washington Post will end up returning that Pulitzer? Don't bet on that, but who knows?

What if Watergate was a hoax, as we say these days? Honestly, after watching Russiagate, the New York trials, and everything else, the idea is not so crazy. I'm not ready to call it a hoax yet, but I'm open to a conversation, as they say these days.

Well, some people think so, such as John D. O'Connor:

Many citizens today, with varied sources of information, understand the highly unethical lawfare waged against President Donald Trump, as exemplified by the Russiagate hoax. By contrast, the more restricted media environment of the early 1970s made prosecutorial misconduct during Watergate harder to scrutinize. With fresh eyes now taking a closer look at the reporting and prosecution of Watergate, it is becoming clear that DOJ investigators should sanction prosecutorial misconduct and set the historical record straight on Richard Nixon's innocence.

As a refresher, Watergate refers to a political scandal stemming from the June 17, 1972, burglary of the Democratic National Committee's offices in the Watergate building by burglars with known CIA ties. After two years of investigations, committee inquiries, and trials, over 40 government officials were convicted or jailed, and President Richard Nixon was forced to resign from office.

Recently, former Nixon aide and historian Geoff Shepard presented his case to the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility (OPR), arguing that the proceedings against Richard Nixon amounted to dishonest, partisan "lawfare" enabled by prosecutorial and Congressional misconduct. Hopefully, the OPR will follow up with a vigorous investigation and clear the record of this unfairly maligned former president.

Clear the record of this unfairly maligned former president? Yes, it's time for a second look at that whole story.

As the article points out:

Why, fifty years later, should we investigate any flaws in Nixon's prosecution? Because key questions remain: 1) was the prosecution of Nixon and aides (with Nixon as an unindicted co-conspirator) so clearly unethical that the OPR should conclude formally that the prosecution was fatally and unethically flawed;

and 2) were the Senate investigation and Majority Watergate Report false in material particulars, constituting a willfully false official Report to the public? In light of the attempted replay of Watergate and the Russiagate hoax, these questions are existential.

Bring it on. Maybe it's time to revisit that whole episode that consumed the country for years. I do recall people back then, such as a neighbor historian, saying that there was a lot of hypocrisy in these attacks against President Nixon. I do believe that the collapse of Vietnam and the betrayal of the Shah of Iran would have turned out differently if President Nixon had been in the Oval Office.

So, let's open up the case and hear more about this.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/17/2026 - 23:30

US Firms Account For 75% Of Chips Powering Russia's New Jet Drone

Zero Hedge -

US Firms Account For 75% Of Chips Powering Russia's New Jet Drone

Building on our earlier notes mapping out the supply chain behind the Russian one-way attack drone, a new report from a Ukrainian defense news outlet claims that a whopping "three-quarters of the Geran-4's onboard computer consists of electronic components manufactured by American companies."

Militarnyi's supply-chain intelligence investigation into Russian Geran-4 drones identified 80 components from US companies among 105 cataloged parts, suggesting how heavily Russia relies on foreign technology despite severe sanctions from Western governments.

An engineering unit with Ukraine's 1230th Athena Engineering and Technical Regiment examined the chips, recovered from recent Geran-4 drone wreckage with most internal components intact, allowing investigators to inspect markings and serial numbers to identify manufacturers.

Here's what they found:

After comparing board descriptions and manufacturer lists, the researcher was able to identify 105 electronic components. Of these, at least 80 are from American companies, accounting for 76.19% of the total.

Countries are determined based on the parent company's place of registration. Under this approach, Intersil components are classified as products of the Japanese company Renesas, while Zetex components are classified as products of the American company Diodes Incorporated.

Texas Instruments dominates the list of manufacturers by a wide margin. Together with National Semiconductor, which it acquired in 2011, the two companies account for 61 components, or 58.1% of the list. These include, in particular, TMS320F28335PGFA processors for data processing and control of onboard systems, VP230 CAN transceivers for data exchange between modules, MB3238I multichannel transmitters, and PS767D301 voltage regulators. The boards also feature REF3020 reference voltage sources, which provide a stable voltage for measurement circuits.

Militarnyi concluded the report: 

With a production rate of 3,000 units per month, this dependence creates a need for more than two million components from Texas Instruments and National Semiconductor combined each year. This indicates a lack of an effective mechanism for monitoring compliance with sanctions, both at the level of the companies themselves and at the government level.

These new findings build on a separate report from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, a US government-funded international news organization, that tore down a Geran-4 drone and found the jet's brain was powered by Texas Instruments chips. They also found many other foreign-made components, much of which came from China.

It remains unclear how and when these chips entered Russia. The recovered chips could have come from inventories stockpiled before sanctions, subsequent purchases through third-country intermediaries or shell companies, or a combination of the two. 

The takeaway we have here is how heavily Russia depends on foreign components to power its new one-way attack drone. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 10/17/2026 - 23:00

Pages