2nd US Aircraft Carrier Rerouted From Caribbean To Mideast As Iran In Crosshairs

Soon on the heels of Netanyahu's meeting with President Trump at the White House this week, the US has quietly ordered its USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, to depart the Caribbean Sea and head to the Middle East, at a moment the White House is weighing possible military action against Iran, NY Times and others are reporting.

The redeployment will give Washington two carrier strike groups in the region, stacking additional warships alongside the already-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln as Trump turns up the pressure on Tehran over its nuclear program as well as ballistic missile arsenal. It's expected to take at least two weeks or more for the Ford to reach its destination off Iran.

USS Gerald R. Ford, via US Navy

Trump had openly discussed the idea of sending a second carrier strike group to the region earlier this week, a clear escalation as indirect US-Iran talks in Oman sputter with no breakthrough, but he's all the while expressed hope that he wouldn't have to use them.

"The ship’s crew was informed of the decision on Thursday, according to four U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about the decision," NY Times reports.

Previously, the Ford had been operating in the Caribbean after its abrupt redeployment from the Mediterranean, as part of the earlier show of force tied to Venezuelan operations - making its rapid retasking toward Iran a stark reversal of routine scheduling for one of America's 11 total carriers available globally.

On this, the NY Time details: 

The Ford’s warplanes participated in the Jan. 3 attack on Caracas that captured President Nicolás Maduro. The strike group’s current deployment has already been extended once, and its sailors were expecting to come home in early March.

The new delay will further jeopardize the Ford’s scheduled dry dock period in Virginia, where major upgrades and repairs have been planned.

Trump has warned Tehran that failure to cut a deal would be "very traumatic" even as US diplomacy clings to the possibility of a quick agreement.

Trump took the opportunity to repeat a US ultimatum to Tehran early this week: "Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time," he told Axios to kick off the week. The Iranians will no doubt have this ringing in their ears headed into a planned second round of talks next week.

The USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group currently there, just south of Iran, involves dozens of fighter jets, Tomahawk missiles, along with several support warships. 

Trump has still claimed that Iran "wants to make a deal very badly" and is engaging much more seriously than in the past. There are signs that this is accurate, given the latest offer to dilute its enriched uranium in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.

The US president days ago articulated his view that the June war taught the Iranians a huge lesson: "Last time they didn't believe I would do it," Trump said. "They overplayed their hand."

US Navy aircraft carrier status as of today.

Deployed - 2
Available to deploy - 1
Post deployment availability - 2
Training - 2
Maintenance - 5 pic.twitter.com/OEHpB5MWZo

— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) February 9, 2026

Meanwhile, two observations from The Economist's Gregg Carlstrom:

1) The lesson from last summer's failed effort at diplomacy is to watch what Trump does, not what he says; his vaguely optimistic statements about negotiations do not reflect reality (and that goes double for Witkoff's).

2) No matter how much Trump beefs up the American military presence in the Middle East, he still lacks the sort of military option he prefers (a quick, decisive "win").

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:55

Futures Fall On Friday The 13th As CPI Looms

US equity futures are lower in a scary start this Friday the 13th, having given up modest overnight gains, as Investors - already on high alert for any further signs of the "AI scare trade" - braced for Friday’s inflation reading and any clues it holds on what happens next for interest rates.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down by 0.2%, having flipped between gains and losses after a three-day S&P 500 losing streak and especially Thursday's brutal 1.6% cash-market slump, which DB's Jim Reid described as "Friday 13th coming a day early for risk assets yesterday." In pre-market trading, Mag-7 all names are weaker ahead of the long weekend, but there are some bright spots within Energy / Mats / Fins but, so far, pre-mkt trading does not point to another significant de-risking. Bond yields climb 1-2bps across the curve with the belly underperforming and USD rallying. Commodities are retracing some of yesterday’s losses led by precious metals. Crude oil futures fell on a report that some OPEC+ nations see scope for output hikes. Today’s macro focus is on CPI and if any new AI "Obsolescence" trades emerge. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Alphabet -0.7%, Amazon -1.0%, Apple -0.4%, Nvidia -0.3%, Meta -0.8%, Microsoft -0.6%, Tesla -0.8%).

• Airbnb (ABNB) is up around 4.8% after the travel-booking platform’s first-quarter revenue forecast exceeded the average analyst estimate.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) is up 11% after the semiconductor capital equipment company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook for adjusted earnings that is above the analyst consensus.
• DraftKings (DKNG) slides 15% after the sports betting company’s revenue forecast for 2026 missed the average analyst estimate.
• Dutch Bros (BROS) jumps 13% after the coffee chain reported adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter that surpassed Wall Street estimates.
• Pinterest (PINS) is down around 20% after the social media company’s first-quarter forecast was weaker than expected.
• Tri Pointe Homes (TPH) rose 27% after Sumitomo Forestry says it will acquire the company for around $4.28 billion.

In corporate news, Goldman Sachs’ top lawyer, Kathy Ruemmler, is leaving the firm following a cache of Department of Justice documents showing her links with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The sharp swings this week have highlighted how quickly shifts in sentiment around AI can reverberate far beyond the technology sector. The so-called AI scare trade has seen knee-jerk selloffs in sectors from logistics to software providers amid fear the technology will hurt their businesses.  Meanwhile, investors are watching Friday’s January inflation print to see if it reinforces strong jobs numbers earlier in the week, which prompted traders to curb bets on interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The median forecast predicts a year-over-year increase of 2.5% for the core consumer price index.

“What could help the market is if inflation comes in softer than expected,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy at Panmure Liberum. “The strong labor market data earlier this week has reduced hopes for rate cuts by the Fed, yet if inflation continues to cool off, we think the Fed might be willing to add more rate cuts in the mix.”

Punishment has turned “brutal” for any stocks perceived to be at risk from AI disruption, according to Joel Kulina, managing director for TMT trading at Wedbush Securities.The worries over AI-fueled disruption underscore a sea change in market sentiment. Enthusiasm for the technology drove the lion’s share of stock market gains over the last few years.  That’s been replaced by concerns that the newest tools released by Google, closely held AI developer Anthropic and a slew of lesser-known startups are already good enough to threaten a wide array of companies, many far outside the umbrella of technology.

“The number one issue for the market: AI has now become a net negative, pressuring equities,” Kulina says. “‘Sell first, ask questions later’ has been the mentality on a day-to-day basis this month. Megacaps remain capital intense, likely leading to less free cash flow and buybacks on one hand, while decimating legacy industries due to fears of severe disruption on the other.” In the latest such episode, Algorhythm Holdings, a former karaoke company turned AI developer with a stock-market value of only $6 million, announced a logistics platform that triggered a 6.6% slide in the Russell 3000 Trucking Index on Thursday.

Volatility, already stirring, may flare up further as traders square off positions to cut risk before the Presidents’ Day holiday on Monday and Lunar New Year holidays in China and several other Asian markets next week. After Wednesday’s surprisingly strong jobs report prompted traders to pare bets on rate cuts by the Fed, inflation data numbers due at 8:30 a.m. ET have added significance. “The CPI tends to run hot in January as businesses often hike prices in the beginning of the year, a phenomenon that statistical adjustments can’t completely strip out,” according to Bloomberg Economics chief economist Anna Wong. She expects headline consumer prices to rise 0.20% month-on-month, slower than the 0.31% increase in December. Remove volatile food and energy prices, and core consumer prices are predicted to rise 0.31% in January, up from 0.24% the previous month.

European stocks extend declines from the prior session. Stoxx 600 down 0.5% technology stocks outperform as a selloff in sectors deemed at risk from artificial intelligence eases, while basic resources lag on reports the Trump administration is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods. FTSE 100 and the DAX slightly outperforming.Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: 

• Safran shares rise as much as 8% to a record high, after the French engine manufacturer improved its guidance for 2026 and lifted its outlook for 2028, expecting a strong civil engines aftermarket and momentum on defense.
• RELX shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most since April, after BofA Securities said the information and analytics provider is one of its top stocks for this year and that this week’s results shows the recent de-rating is overdone.
• DataWalk shares surge as much as 7.2%, bucking a broader selloff on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, after the Polish data processing company’s accelerated book-building saw shares priced above Thursday’s closing level.
• Kalmar shares gain as much as 8.2%, hitting a record high, after releasing its fourth-quarter results and announcing a “major order” from Maher Terminals for 30 hybrid straddle carriers.
• NatWest shares swing between gains and losses on Friday after the UK lender posted a strong profit beat, currently trading 1.5% down as Shore Capital analysts flag its outlook is yet to take the recently announced deal to buy Evelyn into account.
• L’Oréal shares drop as much as 7%, the most since October, after the beauty company reported like-for-like sales for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate.
• Tomra shares drop as much as 9.3%, the most since October, after the recycler reported fourth quarter revenues below consensus and DNB Carnegie said it sees “muted” collections.
• SSAB shares slide as much as 8.9%, leading a drop in European miners after the Financial Times reported the Trump administration is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods, which would ease market disruptions.
• Norsk Hydro shares fall as much 6.6%, the most since 2023, as analysts called the company’s guidance weak, due to soft pricing and pressure in the aluminum extrusions business.
• Elkem shares fall as much as 13% in Oslo, the most since July, after the company agreed to sell the majority of its silicones division to Bluestar — a deal in which “many investors might have thought there would be a sale for cash,” Morgan Stanley analysts write.
• Huhtamaki shares decline as much as 5.5% following the Finnish consumer packaging firm’s fourth-quarter results, which DNB Carnegie noted showed organic sales continuing to decline.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, as the region’s AI-driven rally took a breather after US tech shares tumbled overnight. Shares in Hong Kong led losses ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.5%, snapping five days of gains. Still, the gauge is on track for its best week since September 2024, after hitting fresh records every day this week through Thursday. Equity benchmarks in Japan, South Korea and mainland China also fell. Despite the near-term pullback, Asian stocks have demonstrated resilience against the broad selloff driven by Wall Street’s fears of business disruption caused by artificial intelligence. The region is seeing more foreign demand as investors rotate away from crowded US trades and seek exposure in Asia’s AI supply chain. Equity markets in mainland China and Taiwan will remain shut all of next week, while Hong Kong is closed for three of the days. 

Citigroup is raising the pay of CEO Jane Fraser to $42 million for 2025, making her among the best compensated US banking heads. Clear Street, a Wall Street broker built on cloud computing technology, postponed its IPO after cutting the target by nearly two thirds. And Coinbase Global showed how quickly a cooling crypto market can pressure even one of the industry’s most diversified exchanges. Revenue in the fourth quarter tumbled a more-than-estimated 20% to $1.8 billion as falling token prices drained trading activity across digital assets.

“Today’s pullback looks like a healthy pause within a broader upward trend,” said Tareck Horchani, head of sales trading, prime brokerage at Maybank Securities in Singapore. “Near term, I expect choppier price action driven by global tech sentiment and positioning flows, but the underlying earnings trajectory, especially in semiconductors, and sustained foreign inflows should continue to provide support once liquidity normalizes.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.2%, with yen and the Aussie dollar underperforming. Russia’s central bank cut rates by 50bps versus expectation for a hold.

In rates, treasuries are little changed in early US session, holding most of Thursday’s curve-flattening gains as focus shifts to January US CPI report at 8:30am New York time. Yields remain within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels, the 10-year near 4.11%, lagging bunds and gilts in the sector by 2bp-3bp. 2s10s spread is near 65bp, about 6bp flatter on the week.

In commodities, WTI crude oil futures fell on a report that some OPEC+ nations see scope for output hikes. Gold is steadying short of $5,000/oz.

Friday's US economic calendar slate includes January CPI at 8:30am. No Fed speakers are scheduled

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX +0.1%
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.12%
• VIX -0.4 points at 20.47
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1183.57
• euro -0.1% at $1.1857
• WTI crude +0.2% at $62.99/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The US and Taiwan signed a trade deal to cut tariffs and boost access for American products in Asia, including a pledge by Taipei to buy more than $44 billion worth of LNG and crude. BBG
• Ukraine and Russia peace talks process remain stuck, primarily over territorial concessions and security guarantees. Politico
• OpenAI told US lawmakers that DeepSeek used unfair methods to extract results from leading rival models to train its next-gen chatbot. BBG
• The Central Intelligence Agency released a new video on Thursday seeking to capitalize on upheaval at the top of China’s armed forces to recruit potential spies. WSJ
• Trump is planning to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods as he battles an affordability crisis that has sapped his approval ratings ahead of November’s midterm elections. FT
• Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura floated the possibility that the bank could soon declare that its price target has been achieved, as the nation’s inflation is becoming stickier. WSJ
• The Pentagon is sending the Navy’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier to the Middle East, as the U.S. steps up plans for a potential attack on Iran, two U.S. officials said. WSJ
• Tech and banking trade groups are among others that are urging the Trump administration to not change the federal framework they have been using to safely deploy AI: Axios 

Trade/Tariffs 

• China and the US held an anti-drug intelligence exchange meeting on February 10th-12th, Xinhua reported; both sides agreed to promote healthy and practical anti-drug cooperation.
• China's Ministry of Commerce holds a roundtable with German firms; hopes that German companies can increase investment in China.
• US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods, according to FT.
• Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa engaged with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on US-bound investment initiatives and confirmed progress on talks to launch the USD 550bln investment.
• Taiwan President Lai said trade deal with US marks a pivotal moment for Taiwan's economy and industries, adds we secured significant benefits for Taiwan's industries and overall economy, and we solidified the Taiwan-US high-tech strategic partnership.
• US Department of Commerce increases duties on Chinese battery-grade graphite to 160% related to Novonix (NVX).
• US and Taiwan sign a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan to eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods, while US confirms 15% tariff rate on Taiwanese goods.
• US and North Macedonia agreed to a trade framework with the US to impose 15% tariff on North Macedonian goods, while North Macedonia is to eliminate all tariffs on US goods.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the losses stateside, where tech underperformed as AI-disruption concerns re-emerged, and logistics/industrials stocks were also pressured after Algorhythm Holdings (RIME) released its AI freight scaling tool. ASX 200 was dragged lower by losses in tech stocks, and as participants also digested earnings releases. Nikkei 225 retreated at the open after recent currency strength and with focus also on earnings reports, including from SoftBank, which returned to profit in Q3 but missed expectations, while its shares were also not helped by its AI exposure. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp suffered alongside the broad downbeat mood in the region, and despite reports that President Trump paused some China tech bans ahead of his summit with Xi in April, while it is also the last trading day in the mainland before the Lunar New Year and Spring Festival holiday closures.

Top Asian News

• Chinese New Yuan Loans (Jan) 4710B vs. Exp. 5000B (Prev. 910B).
• Chinese M2 Money Supply YoY (Jan) Y/Y 9% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.5%).
• Chinese Total Social Financing (Jan) 7220B vs. Exp. 7050B (Prev. 2210B).
• Chinese Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (Jan) Y/Y 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.4%).
• Chinese House Price Index MM (Jan) Y/Y -0.4% (Prev. -0.4%).
• Chinese House Price Index YoY (Jan) Y/Y -3.1% (Prev. -2.7%).

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) are trading mixed as the end of the week nears. SMI (+0.6%) leads its European peers, closely followed by the AEX (+0.5%). On the other hand, the CAC 40 (-0.2%) is the slight laggard following a mixed bag of earnings coming out of France. European sectors are mixed. Technology (+1.3%) sits comfortably at the top of the pile, followed by Insurance (+0.6%) and Industrial Goods  and Services (+0.5%). Upside in Tech follows on from the earnings by Applied Materials, which posted positive earnings and Q2 forecasts. Sitting at the bottom lies Basic Resources (-1.3%), as miners react to the selloff in metals prices. Consumer Products and Services (-0.7%) is weighed on by L'Oreal (-3.5%) post-earnings.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer is set to call for multinational defence initiative to cut costs of rearmament, according to FT

FX

• DXY is currently trading with very mild gains and trades at the midpoint of a 96.89-97.15 range. Really not much driving things for the index this morning, with traders awaiting the US CPI report later. On that, the headline is expected to rise +0.3% M/M (prev. 0.3%), and core rising at a rate of 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.2%). UBS said easing inflation should keep the Fed on track for rate cuts despite strong jobs data, forecasting two 25bps reductions in June and September, while FOMC projections indicate one additional cut this year. In terms of recent price action, ING notes that there has been a strong inclination to sell USD rallies this week, as such, analysts “struggle to see the dollar recover substantially from here”.
• G10s are mixed against the USD, with the NZD and CAD holding around the unchanged mark, whilst the CHF, AUD and JPY hold towards the foot of the pile, with the latter the clear underperformer. EUR was little moved by the EZ GDP 2nd estimates and Employment change, which printed more-or-less in-line with expectations.
• Really not much driving things for the JPY this morning, with the weakness potentially a slight paring of a four-day winning streak seen following PM Takaichi’s landslide victory. Focus has been on Takaichi’s remarks that she will adhere to fiscal responsibility, with attention also on comments via FinMin Katayama, who noted that the foodstuff tax cut could be funded by foreign reserves. On the monetary policy side of things, markets now see the chance of faster BoJ normalisation; on that, BoJ’s Tamura (Hawk) suggested inflation is becoming “sticky”, and flagged the chance of a rate hike “this spring”. On the neutral rate, he suggested that the policy rate is “very distant” from the neutral rate. USD/JPY was little moved by his comments, and currently trades at the upper end of a 152.63-153.66 range.
• CHF is slightly lower this morning, in the aftermath of the region’s inflation data; the Y/Y metric printed in-line with the consensus, whilst the M/M metric was a touch below the prior and surprisingly fell into negative territory. The CHF initially weakened on the report, before scaling back much of the pressure thereafter. It is worth reminding that SNB’s Schlegel suggested that the Bank is willing “look through negative months of inflation”, adding that the bar to negative rates is high.

Central Banks

• Fed's Miran (voter) said some of the concern he has on labour markets is a little less than he had before, adds a range of policies are pushing out the supply of the economy and will increase economic growth in a non-inflationary way. said:. Fed is one of the biggest risks to growth. Monetary policy has passively tightened. We may be underestimating how restrictive monetary policy actually is.
• BoJ's Tamura said he feels Japan's recent inflation is becoming sticky and reiterates will keep raising rates if outlook is met, adds we may be able to judge that BoJ's price goal has been achieved as early as this spring. Added that even if the BoJ raises the policy rate further, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
• Japan's PM Takaichi is to meet with BoJ Governor Ueda on February 16th at 17:00JST / 08:00GMT.
• Japanese PM Takaichi's advisor Honda suggests the BoJ may consider raising interest rates later this year, but noted the unlikelihood of a hike in March.
• ECB's Kazaks said the ECB has yet to see full impact of EUR appreciation; he worries strong EUR reflects dollar weakness; said now is not the time for ECB to move interest rates; said ECB officials are on monitoring mode on EUR strength.
• PBoC's new emphasis on overnight money market rate has reportedly sparked speculation it could become the main policy target.
• Riksbank's Jansson said January inflation confirmed the picture of downside risks to inflation. Figures for GDP and consumption have been a little weaker recently.
• Russian Federation Interest Rate Decision 15.50% vs. Exp. 16% (Prev. 16.00%).

Fixed Income

• Another contained start for fixed income into US CPI and before Monday's US holiday, which coincides with the Chinese New Year holiday period.
• USTs on the backfoot, but only marginally, going into US CPI to round off a packed week of data. Currently, at the low-end of a 112-21 to 112-28 band, and while in the red as it stands, the upper-end of that band is a new marginal WTD peak.
• Bunds are also contained, though the benchmark finds itself firmer by a handful of ticks, but off best in 128.93 to 129.12 confines. The firmer APAC bias came from gains towards the end of the European day after German Chancellor Merz said he is not in favour of joint eurobonds, in addition to the read-across from a strong US 30yr auction.
• Gilts opened higher by nine ticks, catching up to the strength seen on that US auction. Since, the benchmark has retreated into the red with losses of c. five ticks in 91.34 to 91.51 parameters. Ahead of US CPI today but, more pertinently for the UK, next week's packed data docket that will likely determine if the BoE cuts in April as markets currently forecast, or if March comes into consideration.
• JGBs came under pressure to a 131.52 low after BoJ's Tamura said even if they tighten, monetary conditions will remain accommodative.
• Japan sold JPY 649.5bln in 10yr, 20yr and 30yr JGBs in enhanced liquidity auction; b/c 2.95 vs. Prev. 2.58. Highest accepted spread -0.014% vs. Prev. +0.018%. Allotment of bids at highest spread 2.5490% vs. Prev. 86.2119%.
• PBoC is to issue CNY 30bln in 3-month and 1-year bills in Hong Kong.
• Australia sold AUD 1bln 2.50% May 2034 bonds, b/c 3.44, avg. yield 4.2898%.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are trading relatively flat following yesterday’s slump after dollar strength and weak risk sentiment, sparked by AI disruption woes. Adding to further downside pressure were comments from US President Trump yesterday evening that the US must make a deal with Iran and that they could reach a deal over the next month. Not much in terms of fresh catalysts thus far in the European session, as traders await US CPI. WTI and Brent are trading at the lower end range of USD 62.54-63.17/bbl and USD 67.22-67.89/bbl, respectively.
• Precious metals are rebounding after yesterday’s decline, which was driven by a stronger US dollar following strong jobs data surpassing market expectation. There is no fresh catalyst behind today’s recovery, though some analysts attribute the move to dip-buying after the recent sell-off. Spot gold is currently trading near the upper end of USD 4,885.89–4,997.53/oz range, while silver is holding at the upper range of USD 73.745–79.085/oz.
• Copper trades slightly lower triggered by downbeat sentiment in Wall Street and APAC, although Europe fares somewhat better. The red metal trades at the lower end range of 12,800-13,021/t. Other relevant news in the metal space includes the Shanghai Weekly updating their Warehouse changes before the Chinese holiday: Copper +9.47%, Nickel +2.29%, Aluminium +21.3%.
• Indonesia's Mining Minister said we are studying a plan to ban exports on a number of raw materials next year, which includes tin.
• India's Reliance has reportedly been awarded general authorisation from the US to buy Venezuelan Oil.
• Three people reportedly burnt at Exxon's (XOM) Beaumont facility.
• Shanghai Weekly Warehouse Changes: Copper +9.47%, Nickel +2.29%, Aluminium +21.3%.
• ANZ revises gold price forecast, now sees gold hitting USD 5,800/oz in Q2 vs. previous forecast of USD 5,400/oz.
• Qatar hikes April term price for Al Shaheen oil to USD 0.87/bbl over Dubai quotes, according sources.
• Shenzhen financial regulator issues public notice to further standardise gold market operations.

Trade/Tariffs

• China and the US held an anti-drug intelligence exchange meeting on February 10th-12th, Xinhua reported; both sides agreed to promote healthy and practical anti-drug cooperation.
• China's Ministry of Commerce holds a roundtable with German firms; hopes that German companies can increase investment in China.
• US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods, according to FT.
• Japan's Trade Minister Akazawa engaged with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick on US-bound investment initiatives and confirmed progress on talks to launch the USD 550bln investment.
• Taiwan President Lai said trade deal with US marks a pivotal moment for Taiwan's economy and industries, adds we secured significant benefits for Taiwan's industries and overall economy, and we solidified the Taiwan-US high-tech strategic partnership.
• US Department of Commerce increases duties on Chinese battery-grade graphite to 160% related to Novonix (NVX).
• US and Taiwan sign a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan to eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on US goods, while US confirms 15% tariff rate on Taiwanese goods.
• US and North Macedonia agreed to a trade framework with the US to impose 15% tariff on North Macedonian goods, while North Macedonia is to eliminate all tariffs on US goods.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russia's Kremlin said that new round of peace talks with Ukraine will take place next week; adds that its unlikely that discussions will move beyond talks before the conflict in Ukraine is settled.
• US, Russia and Ukraine are planning to meet again next week, possibly in Miami or Abu Dhabi, POLITICO reported.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• US aircraft carrier U.S.S Gerald R. Ford will be sent to the Middle East from Venezuela, according to officials cited by NYT.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said Russia will provide Cuba with material assistance, TASS reported.
• Russia's Kremlin said they did not decide to stop using the dollar but that the US imposed restrictions, dollar will have to compete with other currencies if the US lifts restrictions.
• Japan seizes a Chinese fishing boat off the Nagasaki coast, according to Japanese press.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: United States Jan CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: United States Jan Core CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: United States Jan CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.7%
• 8:30 am: United States Jan Core CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.6%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Friday 13th came a day early for risk assets yesterday and although the sell-off is continuing this morning in Asia, US futures are more stable as I type. It’s perhaps indicative of the state of markets at the moment that a $6 million market cap company that until recently specialised in Karaoke helped wipe tens of billions off logistics stocks to add to the weakness. I've seen some shocking Karaoke performances in my time but this perhaps tops them all. Overall the S&P 500 (-1.57%) slid to a third consecutive decline. Once again, software stocks in the index were one of the worst hit, falling -1.49%, but it was a rough day for tech in general, with the Magnificent 7 (-2.24%) and the NASDAQ (-2.03%) both losing significant ground. Matters weren’t helped by some weaker US data, which added to the risk-off tone, leading to clear signs of financial stress across several asset classes. Indeed, Bitcoin (-2.92%) fell for a 4th consecutive session, credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, and silver (-10.67%) posted another sharp decline.

Tech stocks were in the driving seat of yesterday’s selloff, although unlike some sessions recently, the move was a broad-based one as investors reckoned with the AI-led disruption of various industries. In terms of the movers, Cisco Systems (-12.32%) was one of the worst performers, posting its worst daily performance since 2022 as investors reacted to its latest earnings. On some days, that would make the worst performer in the entire S&P, but there were 7 companies that saw a double-digit decline yesterday, which just shows the adjustment taking place. One of those double-digit declines was CH Robinson Worldwide (-14.54%), as global logistic companies were the latest industry to see artificial intelligence concerns as a very small AI logistics company called Algorhythm Holdings (formerly a Karaoke company) said its SemiCab platform helped customers scale freight volumes by 300% to 400% without a corresponding increase in headcount. The Russell 3000 trucking index fell -6.64% as companies of all size reacted to the news.

Old fears were rekindled within commercial real estate as well as CBRE (-8.84%), a commercial real estate company, saw large losses for a second day following comments from their CEO saying “If there are less office workers in the long run as a result of AI, there will be less demand for office space. That would be a long-term trend to unfold.” So, the market continues to price in further AI disruption across industries, sometimes in the most abstract way.

S&P Financials (-1.99%) also saw a sharp decline, as the KBW Bank Index (-3.21%) posted its worst performance since October. And there were signs of the selloff broadening out, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-1.31%) falling back from its record high the previous day, whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.49%) also fell back from Wednesday’s record. European credit markets were relatively steady as EUR IG was unchanged at 75bps, while EUR HY spreads were just 1bp wider to 264bps. USD IG spreads were 2bps wider to 77bps and USD HY spreads moved 12bps wider to 275bps.

Looking forward, attention will today turn to the US CPI print for January, which is a couple of days later than expected because of the partial government shutdown. This is an important one, because markets are still expecting further rate cuts under a new Fed Chair, but stronger data like the jobs report on Wednesday has led to a bit more doubt as to whether that’s still possible. So another hawkish print today would further push in that direction, particularly given this quarter is already seeing a decent fiscal impulse from the Trump tax cuts.
In terms of what to expect, our US economists forecast that monthly headline CPI would be at +0.26% in January, down from +0.31% in December. And if realised, that would take the year-on-year CPI rate down to +2.5%. However, they think that headline inflation would be weighed down by a -2.4% decline in motor fuel prices, meaning that core CPI should be relatively strong at +0.35% on the month.

Otherwise, they’re keeping an eye on tariff-related strength in core goods, as they expect a continued impact in categories like household furnishings and supplies, as well as apparel. For more details, click here for their preview and to register for their subsequent webinar.  
Ahead of that release, Treasury yields fell across the curve, driven by the wider risk-off move as well as some weaker US data. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were a bit higher than expected, coming in at 227k in the week ending February 7 (vs. 223k expected). Meanwhile, existing home sales were down to an annualised rate of 3.91m in January (vs. 4.15m expected). So that further dampened sentiment, and expectations for Fed rate cuts this year moved back up again. For instance, the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting was up +5.3bps on the day to 53bps. And in turn, yields on 2yr Treasuries (-5.4bps) fell back to 3.456%, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (-7.4bps) fell to 4.098%. Yields have moved back up +1 to +1.5bps across the curve this morning.

Oil prices had already been moving lower along with other risk assets, but the selloff gained momentum amid a bevy of headlines that pointed to greater supply. Brent crude futures closed -2.71% lower on the day, finishing at $67.52/bbl. First, there were comments from US Energy Secretary Wright that China had bought crude from the US that was previously purchased from Venezuela. This was followed by comments later in the day from Interior Secretary Burgum, who said during an event in Washington that the US would be selling Venezuelan oil to China at global market price levels. Bloomberg reported that Venezuelan officials are set to grant more oil permits to Chevron and Repsol, adding credence to the potential for further supply in the medium term. Staying with the US, President Trump reiterated his preference to “reach a deal” with Iran and said that it could come together “over the next month, something like that.” Additionally, there was reporting from Bloomberg that showed Russia had included returning to the dollar settlement system as part of a greater re-framing of the US-Russia economic relationship.

Staying in commodities, gold saw a sharp sell-off of their own despite its traditional haven status. The story of Russia returning to the dollar payment system probably contributed. Gold prices fell -3.19% to $4922/oz, while silver (-10.67%) and copper (-3.02%) also saw outsized moves. As noted above there was more crypto weakness as bitcoin fell -2.92% and is under 5% away from last week’s lows, which was the lowest level since October 2024.

Earlier in Europe, the main highlight yesterday was the EU leaders summit in Belgium. At the summit, EU leaders sought to move forward with reforms to bolster Europe’s economy and improve regional coordination. There were many proposals with various champions. French President Macron pushed a “Buy European” agenda, which remains on the table as European Council president Costa said, “ I feel that there is a broad agreement on the need to use (European preference) in the selected strategic sectors, in the proportional and targeted way.” German Chancellor Merz and Italian PM Meloni called for greater deregulation, with PM Meloni saying that the EU “ cannot continue to hyperregulate…there's no time to lose.” On the matter of greater joint debt,  most leaders were calling for greater stimulus, however Merz seemed unmoved saying, “We have taken on European debt in exceptional situations -- but those were exceptional situations…We have to make do with the money we have."

Across the Channel, UK gilts outperformed after the latest UK GDP print came in softer than expected. It showed Q4 GDP up by +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), which left annual GDP growth for 2025 at +1.3%. So with the downside surprise in the Q4 number, investors priced in more rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, and the 2yr gilt yield (-2.1bps) fell to just 3.60%, its lowest level since August 2024, whilst the 10yr gilt yield (-2.4bps) fell to 4.45%. And elsewhere in Europe, there was a smaller decline that left yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.5bps) and BTPs (-1.3bps) lower as well.

In Asia, the AI related sell-off continues, albeit after a strong week in the region. The Hang Seng (-2.10%) stands out as the largest underperformer, with the CSI (-0.92%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.85%) also lower. The Nikkei (-1.22%) is also weak but its gains so far this week are close to +5.5% post the election results. Elsewhere the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.37%) is also lower after a firmer week with the KOSPI (-0.23%) outperforming.  S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are down jus over a tenth of a percent with European ones back up a similar amount. As we go to print the FT is reporting that the US is planning to roll back some steel and aluminium tariffs that nods to our view that the tariffs headlines this year, whilst very noisy, will likely lean in a dovish direction ahead of mid-terms where the cost of living issue is likely to be decisive.

Early morning data revealed that China’s new home prices continued their decline in January, reflecting weak demand that is likely to further burden the country’s financially constrained developers. Prices decreased by -0.4% month-on-month, matching the decline observed in the previous month.

Looking at the day ahead, data releases include the US CPI print for January, and the second estimate of Euro Area GDP for Q4. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the BoE’s Pill.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:29

Aluminum Futs Slide As Trump Weighs Metal Tariff Rollback In Affordability Push

Aluminum futures in London slipped on Friday after a Financial Times report stated that the Trump administration is considering a partial rollback of steel and aluminum tariffs as it battles an affordability crisis (left over from the Biden-Harris regime years) ahead of November's midterm elections.

The FT cited three people familiar with internal discussions who said White House officials are reviewing steel and aluminum import tariffs of up to 50%, which affect a wide range of downstream consumer products such as appliances to soda cans. The plan would exempt some products, pause further expansions, and shift toward narrower, product-specific national security investigations.

Trade officials at the U.S. Department of Commerce and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative believe these tariffs are already denting consumer sentiment by pushing up prices for goods such as drink cans and pie tins.

The administration is mulling carve-outs for popular food products to tame grocery-store inflation amid affordability concerns this year. Last year, Trump called for a trade war with Beijing ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

News of the planned tariff rollback on aluminum and steel goods sent metal futures in London falling on Friday morning.

Aluminum slid 1.3% to $3,059 a ton on the LME. Zinc dropped 1.4%, while copper fell by about half a percent after available LME inventories posted their largest increase since July.

The Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex (core contracts: aluminum, copper, nickel, lead, and zinc futures) appears to have formed yet another peak since 2022 and is still trading well below its Covid-era high.

What is clear for companies operating in this space is that navigating the U.S. tariff regime has become arduous, with tariffs appearing to change monthly.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:20

Bitcoin Advances Toward Quantum Resistance With Proposed Update

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via Bitcoin Magazine,

BIP 360, a proposal aimed at preparing Bitcoin for future computing threats, has been updated and merged into the official Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) GitHub repository, marking a new step in efforts to strengthen the network against emerging cryptographic and quantum computing risks. 

The proposal introduces a new Bitcoin output type called Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR), designed to support quantum-resistant script tree functionality while maintaining compatibility with existing Tapscript infrastructure, according to a note seen by Bitcoin Magazine.

Supporters of BIP 360 describe the proposal as an early move toward quantum-hardening Bitcoin at the protocol level.

A merge into the BIP repository does not signal endorsement or future activation. BIPs are merged as part of the open process for documenting or discussing potential upgrades.

BIP 360: Pay to Merkle Root

was published pic.twitter.com/GXkmTHnDoL

— Murch (@murchandamus) February 11, 2026

Bitcoin at risk from Quantum computing in theory

Quantum computing has raised concerns across the cryptography and cybersecurity fields because sufficiently advanced machines may be able to break widely used cryptographic systems.

In Bitcoin’s case, the threat centers on the possibility that computers could derive private keys from exposed public keys, which could lead to stolen funds.

While all Bitcoin addresses become vulnerable when spending reveals a public key, some output types carry greater exposure. 

Taproot addresses, along with Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) outputs and reused addresses, are considered more at risk because public keys are visible on-chain.

P2MR is conceptually similar to Taproot but removes a key weakness. Taproot includes a key-path spending method that can expose public keys. The proposed P2MR output type disables that key-path spend and commits only to the script path, reducing the surface area for potential attacks.

The BIP’s authors say the proposal is meant to serve as a foundation for later upgrades that could introduce post-quantum signature schemes into Bitcoin through follow-on soft forks. The note points to algorithms such as ML-DSA (Dilithium) and SLH-DSA (SPHINCS+) as possible candidates.

“Ultimately, the introduction of BIP 360 and P2MR is a first step in a larger set of quantum-resistance proposals that will be necessary to quantum-harden Bitcoin,” said co-author Hunter Beast, a Bitcoin developer and senior protocol engineer at MARA. 

Beast added that the team is also exploring proposals to address vulnerable coins that are unlikely to move, including long-dormant holdings.

The latest update adds Isabel Foxen Duke as a co-author alongside Beast and cryptographic researcher Ethan Heilman.

Duke, a technical communications specialist, said the goal was to make the proposal understandable beyond the developer community.

“Given the sensitivity of the subject matter, we aimed to ensure the BIP was written in a manner that was clear and understandable to the general public,” Duke said.

The proposal arrives as governments and major technology firms increase investment in post-quantum cryptography. 

The U.S. National Security Agency’s CNSA 2.0 framework calls for quantum-safe systems by 2030, while the National Institute of Standards and Technology plans to phase out elliptic curve cryptography in federal systems in the mid-2030s.

Supporters argue that BIP 360 aligns Bitcoin with a broader shift toward quantum-safe security standards, positioning the network to adapt as computing capabilities advance.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:05

Goldman Sacks Ruemmler As Epstein Scandal Claims Obama's Former Lawyer

What do Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Susan Rice, Jeffrey Epstein, the Rothschilds, and Goldman Sachs all have in common?

Kathy Ruemmler... Goldman's (soon to be former) top lawyer, after a batch of documents released by Congress and the DOJ revealed she was thick as thieves with Epstein.

Ruemmler rose to the top ranks of Wall Street, becoming a key advisor to Goldman CEO David Solomon after serving as White House counsel to former President Barack Obama. 

While she allegedly told the bank that her relationship with Epstein was limited and "purely professional," turns out she lied (or they knew, which makes it worse). It would later become public that she not only met with Epstein dozens of times and exchanged friendly emails for years, she was listed as an executor of Epstein's will as recently as Jan. 18, 2019 - which had been removed before he died in prison on Aug. 10 of that year. 

What's more, the Washington Free Beacon reported late last month that Epstein showered her with luxury gifts - including a $9,400 Hermes handbag, a Hermes-branded Apple watch, and a spa treatment package at the Four Seasons Hotel in Washington DC. 

She also denied having ever helped Epstein with PR, telling the outlet "I did not advocate on his behalf to any third party—not to a court, not to the press, not to the government."

Turns out that was a total lie. 

On Friday, the DOJ released over 3 million pages of Epstein documents, including one in which Ruemmler was helping draft statements to help Epstein counter claims that he got a "sweetheart deal" when he was allowed to plead guilty to minor charges in a 2007-2008 sex trafficking case involving dozens of underage girls. 

Just over three weeks ago, Goldman vehemently denied that that plans were afoot to fire Ruemmler. Turns out, not so much. 

Kathy's Out

On Thursday, the Financial Times reported that Ruemmler will resign on June 30 - (aka they fired her and let her resign), saying in a statement to the outlet "I made the determination that the media attention on me, relating to my prior work as a defence attorney, was becoming a distraction."

Her decision comes after documents showed she held extensive discussions with Epstein between 2014 and 2019, long after he pleaded guilty in 2008 to state charges of soliciting prostitution from a minor. Ruemmler joined Goldman in 2020.

Goldman chief executive David Solomon has stood by Ruemmler since her close association with Epstein first emerged in 2023. He said in a statement on Thursday that she “will be missed”. -FT

Ruemmler has said she regrets ever knowing Epstein and that she didn't know about his criminal activities, which we're sure isn't just because she got caught. 

Interestingly, Ruemmler once arranged an advantageous settlement for the Rothschild family with the Obama DOJ, for which she was reportedly paid $10 million and Epstein was paid $25 million. 

Obama's lawyer Kathy Ruemmler and her buddy Epstein helped to arrange an extremely advantageous settlement for the Rothschilds with the Obama DoJ. For this, Kathy was allegedly paid USD 10 million and Epstein was paid USD 25 million.

The Rothschilds business was introduced to… https://t.co/P66nd9lplS pic.twitter.com/pwRABR3sVV

— Svetlana Lokhova (@RealSLokhova) February 12, 2026

Developing...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 08:00

Warsh Likes It Hot, And Will Move The Fed's Inflation Target To 2.5-3.5%

By Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research

Executive Summary:

• The Fed will run the US economy hot – because, with labour demand and supply now in balance, both demand and supply must expand to keep output expanding.

• Short-term US real rates will come down further because the Fed will continue to cut even with inflation in the 2.5-3.5 percent range.

• The US dollar will continue to weaken, given the currency’s dependence on real interest rate differentials.

• The US yield curve will undergo a ‘bear steepening’ as US inflation expectations ratchet higher. Meaning, T-bonds will underperform cash, as well as other major sovereign bonds.

• Stocks will continue to outperform bonds.

• New tactical trade: Overweight MSCI ACW Consumer Discretionary versus Industrials.

Some Like It Hot

The US economy has reached a watershed. For the first time since the pandemic, labor demand and labor supply are in perfect balance, with both now standing at 172 million workers.

Labor supply equals the number of available workers: those with jobs plus those without jobs. Labor demand equals the number of people in work plus job vacancies plus workers on temporary layoff. Many people miss this last component of labor demand. Labor demand must include workers on temporary layoff because there is demand for these workers, albeit they are on temporary layoff for idiosyncratic reasons (such as a government shutdown).

Put a different but equivalent way, the labor market is balanced when the number of ‘jobs looking for workers’ (job vacancies) equals the number of ‘workers looking for jobs.’ The latter means the unemployed. But given that those on temporary layoff are not looking for jobs, it more correctly means the unemployed that are not on temporary layoff.

The number of job vacancies and the number of unemployed not on temporary layoff both now stand at 6.6 million workers

So, correctly measured either way, the US labor market is now in balance.

A Labor Market In Balance Means Double Jeopardy

The US labor market is in balance, but such a balance is extremely rare. In the normal state, that prevailed for decades prior to the pandemic, labor demand runs short of labor supply. Meaning the economy is demand-constrained. 

Since the pandemic though, in a highly unusual state, the relationship flipped. Labor supply has been running short of labor demand. Meaning the economy has been supply-constrained.

The distinction between demand-constrained and supply-constrained is crucial because it is the constraint on the economy – the lower of demand and supply – that drives economic output.

In a normal demand-constrained economy therefore, a demand recession causes a GDP recession. In a supply-constrained economy however, it takes a supply recession to cause a GDP recession. This explains why the abnormally supply-constrained US economy cheated a GDP recession when demand went into recession through 2023-24. The growth in the constraint – labor supply – kept output growing.

Now though, the US economy is at a watershed that puts it in ‘double jeopardy’. Given that labor demand and labor supply are in perfect balance, a drop in either would cause output to contract.

Put another way, both demand and supply must expand. To counter this double jeopardy, the Fed must run the economy hot.

Stimulate demand. But also stimulate supply by creating conditions for labor participation to rise – to offset the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) expulsions of (illegal) migrant workers.

Don’t Bet On An AI-Driven Productivity Surge

If the US labor market is back in the balance it was pre-pandemic, then why is US wage inflation still running hotter than pre-pandemic?

You might counter that the just-released Employment Cost Index (ECI) showed quarter-on-quarter wage inflation slowing to just 3 percent (annualized rate). Yet quarter-on-quarter wage inflation is highly volatile. More meaningful is the smoother 4-quarter wage inflation rate, running at 3.4 percent.

You might further counter that even 3.4 percent achieves the target of 3.5 percent wage inflation that several Fed governors have claimed is consistent with 2 percent price inflation.

Yet 3.5 percent ECI inflation is not consistent with 2 percent price inflation.

The very well-established relationship between ECI inflation and core PCE inflation tells us that, to be consistent with core PCE inflation at 2 percent, ECI inflation must be at 3 percent

Again, you might counter that such a 1 percent gap between ECI inflation and core PCE inflation implies that productivity growth is 1 percent, which is implausibly low. Yet while other more comprehensive measures of productivity growth may show a higher number, 1 percent is the well-established gap between these two specific datasets.

Finally, you might counter that even this specific 1 percent gap should widen if AI boosts productivity growth, allowing wage inflation to run hotter. Yet, despite much wishful thinking, the fact that the gap has not widened warns us that we should not bet on an AI-driven productivity surge as our base case.

The Warsh Fed Will Let The US Economy Run Hot

The reason that wage inflation has gapped structurally higher versus the jobs-workers gap is that the composition of the US labor market has structurally changed. As I highlighted in Why The World’s Fate Hangs On 2.5 Million Older American,  there are almost 3 million fewer older workers in the US labor supply now than before the pandemic.

The loss of millions of older workers is significant because many jobs are non-fungible by age. Just as older workers cannot do younger-aged jobs that require physical strength or athleticism, younger workers cannot do older-aged jobs that require decades of acquired skills or experience.

Therefore, the shortfall of older workers has created an additional tightness in the US labor market which is not captured in the aggregate jobs-workers gap. Once we account for this additional tightness, we get a near-perfect explanation for the evolution of US wage inflation. 

To repeat, faced with the double jeopardy of declining labor demand or declining labor supply, the Fed will turn a blind eye to this structural uplift in wage inflation. It will do this by de facto moving its inflation target to 2.5-3.5 percent. In effect, a Warsh-led Fed will let the US economy run hot.

There are several investment conclusions:

• Short-term US real rates will come down further because the Fed will continue to cut even with inflation in the 2.5-3.5 percent range.
• The US dollar will continue to weaken, given the currency’s dependence on real interest rate differentials.
• The US yield curve will undergo a ‘bear steepening’ as US inflation expectations ratchet higher. Meaning, T-bonds will underperform cash, as well as other major sovereign bonds.
• Stocks will continue to outperform bonds, as the Fed runs the US economy hot.

New Tactical Trade: Overweight Consumer Discretionary Versus Industrials

Consumer Discretionary has underperformed Industrials by almost 20 percent through the last 65 trading days. But the collapsed complexity  of this near-vertical underperformance suggests that the magnitude and pace is overdone.

The potential pivot could be the market warming to the US consumer, given the combined effect of ultra-low US real interest rates, fiscal stimulus, and a still-robust labour market.

Hence, in line with our thesis that the Fed will run the US economy hot, and given the stark underperformance of Consumer Discretionary, a new tactical trade is to go overweight MSCI ACW Consumer Discretionary versus Industrials.

Set the profit target/stop-loss at +/-10 percent, and trade expiry on March 25th.

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 07:20

Mercedes Warns Of Fresh Margin Squeeze As China Struggles Persist

Mercedes-Benz warned that profitability in its car division could come under renewed strain this year, underscoring a difficult outlook as the luxury group contends with elevated costs, weak demand in China and global trade tariffs, according to Reuters.

Shares fell as much as 5.7% after the announcement and were down 3.1% by mid-morning trade on Thursday.

Presenting 2025 results that fell short of expectations, CEO Ola Kaellenius told investors, "The rules are changing," adding, "We are fundamentally reinventing the company."

The automaker projected a 2026 adjusted return on sales of 3% to 5% in its core cars unit, compared with 5% last year — below the 5.4% analysts had forecast. Group operating profit dropped 57% to 5.8 billion euros, missing the expected 6.6 billion euros, hit by roughly 1 billion euros in tariff costs, adverse currency effects and sliding sales in China.

Reuters writes that while management expects a marked rebound in operating profit this year following 1.6 billion euros in redundancy charges in 2025, challenges in China persist. Finance chief Harald Wilhelm said car sales there are likely to decline again in 2026 after a 19% fall last year, as competition intensifies against domestic rivals and peers such as Volkswagen and BMW.

Mercedes is banking on an aggressive rollout of 40 new models over the next three years — beginning with its updated flagship S-Class — to regain momentum in the world’s largest auto market.

Over the longer term, the company aims to lift margins in its autos division back to 8%–10%, supported by what it called "relentless cost discipline." Measures include job reductions launched in 2025 and expanded production in lower-cost locations such as Kecskemet, Hungary. Analysts at Jefferies said the medium-term target "looks confident but may be questioned."

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 06:55

My end-of-week morning paraskevidekatriaphobia WFH reads:

• The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor: Soaring profits and stocks funnel more of GDP toward companies, their top employees and shareholders. AI will intensify this trend. (Wall Street Journal)

• A Stanford Experiment to Pair 5,000 Singles Has Taken Over Campus: A student built a matchmaking algorithm called Date Drop that has consumed the school—and highlighted the challenges of finding love for high achievers. It has become an all-consuming force on campus, pairing thousands of students every Tuesday night at 9pm. Turns out the best and brightest can crack quantum physics but not “hey, wanna get coffee?” (Wall Street Journal) see also How a Math Genius Hacked OkCupid to Find True: Love Mathematician Chris McKinlay hacked OKCupid to find the woman of his dreams. (Wired)

• Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs? First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025 (Liberty Street Economics)

• How the Merrill Lynch deal made Bloomberg: Lessons from The origin story of how a single trade terminal contract with Merrill Lynch transformed Michael Bloomberg’s startup into a financial data empire. Bloomberg-Merrill Lynch in an Anthropic era. (Substack)

• The shadowy world of abandoned oil tankers: Over the past year there has been a big rise in the number of oil tankers and other commercial ships being abandoned around the world by their owners. What is causing the spike? And what is the human impact on the affected merchant sailors? (BBC)

• The secret to happiness? These experts say it’s feeling loved by others. A happiness researcher and a relationship expert teamed up to write about how we can all feel more loved. They argue it’s the key to happiness. (Washington Post)

• The Incompetent Confidence Complex: An Epidemic of Unchecked Incompetence: The intellectual foe of unchecked storytelling is the existence of objective reality. I believe in eternal truths. There are fundamental realities of the cosmology of the universe that are unchanging and fixed realities. But there are very, very few eternal truths. Everything else is pretty darn subject to opinion. (Investing 101 / Substack)

• The Hidden Bias in Language That Turned Left-Handedness Into a Bad Thing: While the days of forcing left-handed children to use their right hands are mostly over, the bias against lefties continues in most languages around the world. The word “sinister” literally means “left.” From Latin roots to modern idioms, language has been quietly slandering lefties for centuries. (Mental Floss)

• Your friends are still acting like everything is normal in America. What do you do? All Americans live in a “dual state.” Here’s what that means — and how to help others see it. (Vox) see also Faced With Trump, Libertarianism Shrugged: The libertarian movement should have been one of the first lines of defense against this aspiring autocrat. It folded instead. (The Bulwark)

• Olympians Can Eat All the Pasta in Italy. So Why Are They Drinking Broccoli? Cross-country skiers are slurping up a potentially performance-enhancing drink of the concentrated vegetable in the hope of speeding up their recovery. https://www.wsj.com/sports/olympics/cross-country-skiing-broccoli-8c706442?st=hSksN9&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Heather & Doug Bonaparthe, a married couple who work together and wrote a book on the financial challenges couples face: “Money Together: How to find fairness in your relationship and become an unstoppable financial team.” Our discussion sits somewhere in between financial planning and couples therapy, built around real stories that try to help couples find a healthier approach to money.

 

AI is 3 years old. A majority of Americans say they use it every week

Source: @DKThomp

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday the 13th Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

"Bye-Bye Data Center": German Town Rejects Multi-Billion Euro Construction Project

Via Remix News,

Germany is increasingly rebelling against multi-billion-euro data centers, reflecting a trend seen in other Western countries. This time, Groß-Gerau, a town outside of the mega internet hub of Frankfurt, is the latest to reject the construction of a major data center over fears of rising power costs, diminished water and environmental resources, ugly aesthetics, and skepticism over job creation.

Major U.S. investors were behind the push to build the 174-megawatt data center, but local residents and politicians have successfully stopped construction of the five-building complex, which represented €2.5 billion in investment.

The city parliament of the southern Hessian district town officially stopped the construction of the project by Vantage Data Centers. According to German media reports, the assembly rejected the proposal in an 18 to 14 vote, according to Welt newspaper.

The opposition was led by a coalition of mostly left-wing and libertarian parties — the SPD, Greens, FDP, Free Voters, and the Left Party. Meanwhile, the business-friendly CDU and the Free Voters’ Association backed the project.

Although the investors had already purchased the 14-hectare site on the outskirts of the city, residents were not convinced they wanted a data center in their own backyard.

Frankfurt already saturated

Frankfurt, also a major financial hub, has already seen some of the densest clusters of data centers in Europe.

In early 2026, NVIDIA and Deutsche Telekom launched a major industrial AI cloud in the region featuring over 10,000 GPUs, specifically designed for high-performance AI training and inference.

The market in Frankfurt has surpassed 1.3 GW (Gigawatts) of live capacity, with projections to reach 2.5 GW by 2031. Frankfurt is currently on track to overtake London as Europe’s largest data center market within the next five years.

Now, residents are revolting against these trends, with concerns over rising power costs, diminished water and environmental resources, and a lack of jobs generated by the centers.

Skepticism and fear

The town resisted for a variety of reasons, including aesthetics, a lack of jobs, and the sheer scale of the project.

Residents also feared the five massive buildings would tower over and damage the cityscape of the town, which has just over 20,000 inhabitants.

Mayor Jörg Rüddenklau (SPD) also did not believe the promised benefits would materialize, doubting the facility would generate significant new jobs or trade tax revenue.

The same resistance has been seen elsewhere in Germany, and in fact, on a global scale. In Bavaria, local groups have successfully argued that these “server barns” provide almost no local jobs — often fewer than 50 for a multi-billion euro site — while occupying vast amounts of valuable industrial land that could be used for manufacturing and other purposes.

In response to these growing concerns, the German government has introduced some of the world’s strictest regulations to appease locals.

By 2028, new data centers must reuse at least 20 percent of their waste heat, and projects that cannot prove this are being rejected. Starting in 2027, all German data centers must also cover their consumption entirely with renewable energy. This is making it harder for investors to find viable sites, as they now need to be located near major wind or solar sites.

Politicians celebrate

Following the vote in Groß-Gerau, Mayor Rüddenklau emphasized that he refused to be pressured, describing the rejection as a vital course of action. His party’s parliamentary group was even more direct, stating that the “city would not be sold to a major investor.”

The local Green Party also wrote on its website: “Bye-bye data center – billion-dollar ‘deal’ happily falls through.”

The Green Party characterized the decision as a victory for the community, noting that “with the rejection of the project, an oversized, highly problematic urban planning and ecological project is off the table.”

The party stated that the site would now be developed in a “socially acceptable and future-proof” manner.

More resistance on the horizon

Meanwhile, massive data center projects are advancing in other areas of Germany. A massive 300 MW “Mega Campus” is moving forward to serve the Brandenburg Wustermark region outside Berlin, but it has faced intense scrutiny over its impact on the local water table.

Beyond Groß-Gerau, towns like Hanau are seeing organized “neighbor resistance.” Residents are citing a 2025 study showing that some data centers consume as much water as small cities during summer heatwaves to keep servers cool.

Germany’s Energy Efficiency Act (EnEfG), which became strictly binding for many operators in 2025, has only exacerbated the problem. Grid connection requests have skyrocketed near many major cities. In Berlin alone, data center requests have reached nearly 3 GW, far exceeding what the city’s current infrastructure can handle.

Data centers are driving up the price of electricity for households and starving other sectors of power.

A similar conflict is also running in the German town of Maintal, where the U.S. firm “Edgeconnex” is pursuing a 170-megawatt data center.

Critics say these projects are necessary for Germany’s “digital future,” but with AI data centers not only generating very few jobs, but also threatening to wipe out jobs for millions in the future, some local residents are having trouble understanding what they are getting out of these deals besides high energy prices, diminished water supplies, and ugly eyesores on the landscape.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 02/13/2026 - 02:00

A Warning To Seattle: Don't Become The Next Cleveland

Authored by Charles Fitzgerald via GeekWire.com,

Consider a successful mid-sized American city. One with decades of population growth. Median household incomes on par with or exceeding New York City. A bustling port in a prime location. Bold civic architecture. A vibrant arts and cultural scene. And home to some of the world’s biggest and most valuable companies.

That could be Seattle. It also describes Cleveland about 75 years ago.

In the 1950s, Cleveland was an epicenter for the era’s “Big Tech.” Industrial giants like Standard Oil, Republic Steel, and Sherwin Williams were all founded in Cleveland. Like engineering outposts in Seattle, other leading companies including General Motors, Westinghouse, and U.S. Steel were well represented locally. 

Yet Cleveland’s success unraveled remarkably quickly.

Within 20 years, when the Cuyahoga River caught fire in 1969, the city was seared into history as “the mistake on the lake.” The population has declined by 60% since 1950 (and is still shrinking). Cleveland has gone from the seventh largest U.S. city in the country to the 56th. Median household incomes are now less than half the national average — and less than 40% of the Seattle area. 

Today in Seattle tech circles there is great trepidation about the region’s next act. Seattle is not punching above its weight in the AI era the way we did in the software era. We might not even be punching our weight.

Entrepreneurs, executives, investors, and technologists are departing, either because they don’t think they can be competitive here in the white-hot AI market and/or are concerned about a deteriorating business environment. And the exodus appears to be accelerating.

You might take solace that our little corner of the country hosts two of the world’s five biggest companies (which is a little crazy). But it is easy to believe both Amazon and Microsoft are past peak employee count, as they become more capital-intensive and lean into AI-driven productivity. Other local tech companies and engineering centers are also shrinking, while new job listings have plummeted. 

While the tech sector confronts existential dread, the political class in Seattle and Washington state seems oblivious. They don’t have much to say about creating jobs or nurturing industries of the future (or even of the present). Revenue is their focus above all else, with considerably less emphasis on how our taxes translate into efficient and effective provision of government services.

Charles Fitzgerald at the GeekWire Cloud Summit in 2019. (GeekWire File Photo / Kevin Lisota)

The traditional Seattle civic partnership between business and government has frayed. Few lessons have been learned from Boeing’s slow-motion migration out of the Seattle area (Washington is now home to just over a third of Boeing employees, and due to decrease further).

Relations between the tech industry and government are rocky, with the industry seen almost exclusively as a bottomless source of revenue. It would be shocking — but not surprising — to one day learn Amazon and/or Microsoft are moving their headquarters out of the state. (Bellevue already looks like Amazon’s HQ1 in all but name).

The tech boom has been an immense boon for Seattle, as the city attracted talent from all over the world.

Seattle’s population has grown by almost 40% in the 21st century, and the City of Seattle rode that tailwind. The city’s inflation-adjusted budget grew over three times faster than the population over the same period. 

That growth raises some obvious questions.

Are city services three times better? How long can government spending keep outgrowing the population? What happens if population growth slows — or even reverses?

Meanwhile, city issues loom large in the desirability of doing business in Seattle.

Downtown is barren, with record vacancies. Public safety, housing and homelessness are perennial hot topics, but progress is scarcer. After the recent election, we’re apparently going to take another shot at those persistent problems with progressive panaceas that have seen limited success, both locally and elsewhere. 

Amazon’s Spheres, with the Space Needle in the background. (GeekWire File Photo / Kurt Schlosser)

Completely missing from any discussion is the crisis in our schools, where the majority of fourth and eighth graders in Seattle are not proficient in reading or math.

Education is one of the most effective solutions to many social ailments — and a mandatory prerequisite for an advanced civilization — yet we’ve seemingly given up.

Which brings us back to Cleveland.

When its fortunes began to shift, Cleveland’s politicians made a bad situation worse. A confrontational, short-term posture from government made it easy for companies to put Cleveland plants at the top of their closure lists. Contrast that with another Rust Belt city, Pittsburgh, where politicians and business worked together to accept and manage the inevitable transition. They defined the post-industrial playbook for cities — one Cleveland belatedly adopted. 

Seattle has always been a lucky city. Prosperity has often come from unexpected sources. The Alaska gold rush was, quite literally, a gold rush. Bill #1 (Boeing) made Seattle synonymous with aerospace. Proximity to Alaska gave us a competitive container port, while rival ports like Portland and San Francisco dried up. Bill #2 (Gates) catalyzed a software industry in Seattle (and beyond). Jeff (Bezos) famously drove to Seattle in his Chevy Blazer, where he pioneered e-commerce and created a million and a half jobs along the way.

Maybe the luck holds and the next big thing just shows up. It could be space, energy, robotics, biotech or something unimaginable today. Hopefully we get lucky again, but hope, as they say, is not a strategy. 

So I’ll offer a catchphrase as you think about Seattle’s next act: Don’t be Cleveland.

(I want to be very clear that I mean no offense to Cleveland. The people there today are still digging out of a hole created decades ago. Let’s learn from them and not repeat the errors of their forebears.)

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 22:35

E. Coli At 'Incredibly Dangerous Levels' As DC Raw Sewage Spill Into Potomac May Be Largest In US History

Raw sewage from a 60-year-old pipe has dumped roughly 300 million gallons of waste into the Potomac River in what is possibly the largest sewage overflow in U.S. history, according to environmental advocates and regional officials.

A recently placed warning sign is seen at the sight of a massive pipe rupture, as sewage flows into the Potomac River, right, in Glen Echo, Maryland, on Friday.
Cliff Owen/AP

DC Water said last week that a section of its sewer system known as the Potomac Interceptor collapsed along the Clara Barton Parkway on Jan. 19, triggering a massive discharge of untreated wastewater into the river.

In a press release, the utility estimated that approximately 243 million gallons of wastewater had overflowed from the collapse site. On Monday, DC Water said there had been an additional “significant overflow” on Sunday during a period of high river flow, noting that some bypass pumps were not in service at the time.

The Potomac Riverkeeper Network, a local environmental advocacy organization, claimed in a Facebook post Wednesday that the total volume of sewage released had surpassed 300 million gallons.

An analysis of the water by the University of Maryland (UMD) and the Riverkeepers found "high levels of fecal-related bacteria and disease-causing pathogens" - which they say raise "urgent public health concerns." 

"Raw sewage from a 60-year-old pipe has vomited roughly 300 million gallons into the Potomac River and is still not fully contained," said PRKN President Betsy Nicholas. 

Dean Naujoks, who holds the title of Potomac Riverkeeper, told The Baltimore Sun that the only comparable sewage spill he could recall occurred in 2017 along the U.S.-Mexico border, when roughly 230 million gallons of wastewater were released.

“The Potomac River is a shared natural treasure, and any event that threatens its health understandably causes concern, frustration, and a sense of loss,” DC Water CEO David L. Gadis said in an open letter released Wednesday. “Those feelings are not only valid — but they are also shared by all of us at DC Water.”

Environmental experts say the scale of the spill is difficult to contextualize but extraordinary by regional standards.

Gussie Maguire, a Maryland staff scientist with the Chesapeake Bay Foundation, compared the volume released in Washington to annual sewage overflow totals in Baltimore.

“The way that I put it into perspective for myself and for people before is I compared it to annual sewage overflow amounts,” Maguire told The Hill in a Thursday interview. “You don’t really necessarily want to think about it, but there are a lot of sewage overflows going on in any particular year.”

Maguire said Baltimore’s largest recent annual sewage overflow occurred in 2018, when the city released approximately 250 to 260 million gallons over the course of the entire year — a volume comparable to the Potomac spill from a single infrastructure failure.

She also noted that the section of sewer that collapsed had already been slated for upgrades, with DC Water having allocated more than $600 million for planned improvements.

While the spill itself was a single incident, Maguire said the underlying vulnerabilities that caused it are widespread.

“The sewage spill was a single event, but the circumstances that led to it are not unique,” she said, adding that sustained funding for infrastructure upgrades is “really, really important, so that we don’t see this sort of large-scale spill become a regular occurrence.”

The environmental consequences have been immediate. Researchers from the University of Maryland reported that E. coli bacteria levels at a Potomac River monitoring site were 10,000 times above Environmental Protection Agency recreational standards two days after the Jan. 19 rupture. A week later, those levels had fallen but remained 2,500 times above federal guidelines.

Officials have warned that monitoring and cleanup efforts will continue as repairs to the damaged sewer infrastructure move forward.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 22:10

Judge Boasberg Orders Government To Facilitate Return Of Deported Venezuelans

Authored by Stacy Robinson via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge in Washington has ordered the Trump administration to facilitate the return of Venezuelans whom he said should receive a hearing after their deportation under the Alien Enemies Act.

U.S. District Judge James Boasberg wrote in his Feb. 12 ruling that the government must parole those deportees into U.S. custody if they present themselves at a port of entry and provide them due process to contest their deportation.

Boasberg said his ruling was intended to mirror a Supreme Court ruling from last year, which upheld U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis’s order that the government “facilitate” the return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia.

The government will also have to pay for the flights and provide a boarding letter to the deportees, but that only applies to those flying in from a third country, not Venezuela itself.

The return might be short-lived, Boasberg said, since anyone who is flown back or paroled into the country will be detained by U.S. immigration officials and held in custody while their case plays out.

They also face being deported again at the end of the proceedings.

An attorney for the plaintiffs previously told the judge that some of his clients were willing to take that risk.

The ruling is the latest chapter for the deportees, who were sent to El Salvador’s CECOT terrorism confinement center last year. They were subsequently released into Venezuela.

Boasberg ruled in December that the government needed to give the Venezuelans an opportunity to contest their deportation. When the Justice Department objected to that ruling, the judge ordered a hearing to discuss ways the government could provide due process.

“I never said, and the plaintiffs never said, they were not deportable,” Boasberg remarked at that hearing on Feb. 9.

The question, he told the court, was whether the plaintiffs were deportable under the Alien Enemies Act, and if they had been given due process.

The Justice Department argued, in a court filing ahead of the hearing, that Boasberg lacked jurisdiction over the detainees since they had been turned over to the El Salvadoran government and released into Venezuela.

The DOJ also said remote hearings were infeasible, since the U.S. government would have no way of combating perjury or testing the identity of witnesses in such proceedings.

The volatile political situation might also complicate matters, the DOJ argued.

Responding to those concerns, Boasberg said in his order that plaintiffs could file supplemental challenges to their deportation—along with proof that they were not Tren de Aragua members—and he would decide whether to require such hearings, and their logistics, later.

He also punted on the jurisdiction question, saying the government can argue against any upcoming plaintiff filings.

An attorney for the plaintiffs said some of his clients had no association with Tren de Aragua and would be able to prove it if given a chance.

He and his team had identified a “handful” of plaintiffs who managed to leave Venezuela, and were willing to return to the United States for in-person hearings, though he didn’t want to specify in open court where they were living.

Boasberg has ordered him to reveal those locations to the court, but under sealed documents.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 21:45

Inpex Warns Of Looming LNG Crunch in Asia

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com,

Japan’s Inpex expects an LNG supply shortfall in the Pacific coastal region, including Asia, in 2035, as demand will nearly double from current levels, the oil and gas major said in its 2025 earnings report on Thursday. 

Global LNG demand is expected to increase to about 700 million tons per year in 2035, up from the current level of around 400 million tons annually, according to the Japanese company, which operates the Ichthys LNG project offshore Western Australia.  

“Demand will be concentrated in the Asia–Oceania region, accounting for about 60% of the total,” Inpex said in the outlook to 2035.  

“Supply shortfall is expected in the Pacific coastal region, including Asia,” the company noted in its LNG Supply and Demand Outlook in the report. 

While other regions look sufficiently supplied, the Pacific coastal region could see a supply shortfall of 231 million tons per year in 2035, according to Inpex. 

Despite warnings of a near-term global LNG glut, top exporters in the Middle East, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), see strong demand going forward and flag insufficient investment in supply in the medium to long term.

The UAE is growing its LNG exports to meet surging global demand that will outpace investment in supply, Energy Minister Suhail al Mazrouei told Reuters at the end of last year.

“I agree with his excellency, Minister of Qatar, that the demand is going to be much, much more than the projects that we are seeing,” the UAE official added. 

Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, who is QatarEnergy’s CEO as well as the Minister of State for Energy Affairs of Qatar, said in December “I have no worry at all about demand in the future.”

“I have a worry about the lack of investment for additional supply in the future, which will cause prices to spike,” Al-Kaabi added. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 20:05

Two Israelis Arrested, Indicted After Using Classified Iran Info For Polymarket Bets

The Israeli government has announced the arrest and indictment of an IDF military reservist and a civilian with classified clearances who placed bets regarding military operations on the popular Polymarket prediction market.

A joint statement by Shin Bet and the Israeli Police, which teamed up to conduct the investigation, said bets were made "based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed as part of their military duties."

via AFP

Authorities have not confirmed details of the specific bets, but it follows Kan News first reporting suspicions that officials within the defense ministry had leveraged classified information to profit on Polymarket.

At least one of the accused reportedly bet on the timing of Israel's opening strike on Iran in last June's 12-day war. The indictments mention "serious security offenses" as well as bribery and obstruction of justice.

According to the Times of Israel, one of the men netted about $150,000 based on the insider knowledge:

Last month, Kan said a user who went by the name ricosuave666 placed several bets in June 2025 with suspicious accuracy regarding Israeli military operations in Iran, wagering tens of thousands of dollars and making a profit of around $150,000.

While not identifying the men, the defense ministry and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a lengthy statement.

"The defense establishment emphasizes that engaging in such betting activities, based on secret and classified information, poses a substantial security risk to IDF operations and to the security of the state," the statement indicated.

An IDF spokesperson continued, "The IDF views with utmost severity any act that endangers the security of the state, particularly the use of highly classified information for the purpose of personal gain."

The IDF called it a "grave ethical failure and a clear crossing of a red line," and indicated that "In response to the incident, measures have been taken and procedures will be reinforced across all IDF units to prevent similar cases from recurring."

There have been several similar 'insider betting' scandals in the United States related to fast-moving geopolitical events, for example involving the timing of the Trump-ordered Venezuela military operation. Red flags have even been raised surrounding the Super Bowl halftime show:

Earlier this year, an anonymous bettor on Polymarket perfectly predicted the US invasion of Venezuela mere hours before over 150 US aircraft rocked the country’s capital of Caracas, netting them over $400,000.

The incident reignited a heated debate over insider trading on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. While the act is strictly forbidden on Wall Street, prediction markets are currently operating in a regulatory vacuum, allowing those who enjoy insider status to score big — while everyone else is left to pick up the bill.

And the evidence that prediction markets are rife with insider traders continues to grow. As one eagle-eyed Reddit user noticed, an anonymous day-old Polymarket account correctly guessed 17 out of around 20 bets about Sunday’s Super Bowl half-time show.

Vegas did $130M on the Super Bowl.

Prediction markets did $1.33B. 10x Vegas

1. @Kalshi - $871M
2. @Polymarket - $312M
3. @opinionlabsxyz - $92M
4. @predictdotfun - $31M
5. @Novig - $19M
6. @SX_Bet - $5M
7. @Overtime_io - $443K

— MovieTime (@MovieTimeDev) February 10, 2026

"All told, they made about $17,000 in profit," the report observes, and points to the extreme unlikelihood, statistically-speaking, in getting 17 out of the 20 bets exactly right.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 19:40

American Colleges Received $5.2 Billion In Foreign Funding In 2025, Education Department Reveals

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

American colleges and universities received more than $5.2 billion in reportable foreign gifts and contracts last year through more than 8,300 transactions, the Department of Education said in a Feb. 11 statement.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) campus in Cambridge, Mass., on May 25, 2025. Learner Liu/The Epoch Times

The database was compiled from foreign funding disclosures submitted by educational institutions. Such disclosures are mandated by Section 117 of the Higher Education Act, which obligates universities and colleges receiving federal funding to annually disclose gifts and contracts from foreign sources valued at $250,000 or more.

The top recipient of foreign funds last year was Carnegie Mellon University, which received almost $1 billion. This was followed by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, also at nearly $1 billion, Stanford University, which got more than $775 million, and Harvard University, which received more than $324 million, the department said.

Qatar was the biggest foreign source of reported gifts and contracts, pouring more than $1 billion into U.S. educational institutions last year. This was followed by the United Kingdom at more than $633 million, China at more than $528 million, Switzerland with $451 million plus, Japan with $374 million, Germany at more than $292 million, and Saudi Arabia spending more than $285 million.

The data has been made available for public inspection via the foreign funding higher education platform launched earlier this year by the Trump administration. The information is based on reports through Dec. 16, 2025.

Between 1986, when Section 117 was included in the Act, and Dec. 16, 2025, a total of $67.6 billion in foreign funding had been reported across 555 institutions, data from the platform show.

Qatar also topped the aggregate list of foreign funding sources at $7.7 billion, followed by China at $6.4 billion, and Germany at $4.7 billion.

The top recipient during this period was Harvard, which received $4.2 billion in foreign funding. Carnegie Mellon University came in second at $3.9 billion, followed by MIT with $3.5 billion.

In this multidecade period, Harvard was also the top recipient of funds from parties located in “countries of concern,” at $610 million. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology was second, receiving more than $490 million, while New York University received more than $462 million to hit the third spot.

Foreign countries of concern include China, North Korea, Russia, Iran, and other nations determined as such by the Department of State.

“Thanks to the Trump Administration’s new accountability portal, the American people have unprecedented visibility into the foreign dollars flowing into our colleges and universities—including funding from countries and entities that are involved in activities that threaten America’s national security,” Secretary of Education Linda McMahon said.

“This marks a new era of transparency for the American people and streamlined compliance for colleges and universities, making it easier than ever for institutions to meet their legal obligations.”

In April 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on transparency regarding foreign influence at American universities.

The order instructed the education secretary to ensure robust enforcement of foreign funding reporting at higher educational institutions to prevent harm to American interests.

“It is the policy of my Administration to end the secrecy surrounding foreign funds in American educational institutions, protect the marketplace of ideas from propaganda sponsored by foreign governments, and safeguard America’s students and research from foreign exploitation,” the order said.

Investigations and Lawsuits

In its latest statement, the Department of Education said it had initiated four Section 117 investigations since the start of the Trump administration amid reports of “inaccurate and untimely foreign source gift and contract disclosures.”

The universities subject to the probe were Harvard, the University of Pennsylvania, the University of Michigan, and the University of California–Berkeley.

In addition to Section 117 enforcement, the Trump administration has engaged in legal conflicts with universities over various policies.

In July 2025, the administration withheld $584 million in research funds from the University of California–Los Angeles (UCLA), alleging that the institution failed to tackle anti-Semitism as well as discriminatory admission practices.

A lawsuit was filed in September 2025 by associations and labor groups representing employees at the university’s 10 campuses, alleging violation of First Amendment rights. In November 2025, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration from cutting federal funding to the university.

Harvard filed a lawsuit against the Trump administration in April, seeking to restore $2.2 billion in contracts and grants withheld by the government.

A federal judge reversed the funding freeze, highlighting that the government violated First Amendment rights while pushing forward its efforts to counter anti-Semitism. The Department of Justice appealed the decision in December 2025.

On Feb. 2, Trump announced that his administration would seek $1 billion in damages from Harvard, calling the university “strongly anti-Semitic.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 19:15

Confirmed: US Covertly Sent Thousands Of Starlink Terminals Into Iran Amid Unrest

The Trump administration has confirmed what was already long suspected -the US sent Iranian protesters thousands of Starlink terminals amid last month's raging economic protests and unrest.

The mainstream media had claimed the whole time that the demonstrations were both purely peaceful and completely spontaneous, but a Thursday Wall Street Journal piece greatly muddies this MSM narrative.

Source: Getty Images

"After Iranian authorities smothered mounting unrest in January by killing thousands of protesters and severely cutting internet connectivity, the U.S. smuggled roughly 6,000 of the satellite-internet kits into the country, the first time the U.S. has directly sent Starlink into Iran," WSJ writes.

This also contradicts earlier claims from weeks ago that it was merely activist non-profit NGO groups which got a small amount of Starlink systems to protesters. That was perhaps the 'cover' narrative. But later it became evident the SpaceX-made comms equipment was more ubiquitous.

Skeptical observers questioned how that amount of sophisticated equipment could so easily get across Iran's borders at a moment security forces were on a high state of alert. They concluded, reasonably, that it must have had the involvement of Western intelligence services.

“The State Department had purchased nearly 7,000 Starlink terminals in earlier months—with most bought in January—to help antiregime activists circumvent internet shut-offs in Iran, officials said.” https://t.co/1Hmx3QNQCR

— Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga) February 12, 2026

WSJ tries to tiptoe around the obvious contradictions:

President Trump was aware of the deliveries, officials said, but they didn’t know if he or someone else directly approved of the plan.

Tehran has repeatedly accused Washington, without evidence, of playing a role in fomenting popular dissent and organizing last month’s nationwide demonstrations in the country of 90 million people. Iranians were protesting years of economic mismanagement, a weakening currency and hard-line rule.

The U.S. has denied any connection to the uprising, though the Starlink operation shows the Trump administration has done more to support antiregime efforts than has been previously known.

The publication brazenly claims the accusations of an external hidden hand are "without evidence" while in the very next stanza admitting a direct connection, and then seeking to downplay it.

Trump had even in real-time repeatedly said "help is on the way" - even as dozens or possibly hundreds among the dead and injured were police officers and among security forces. This showed some level of an armed element mixed into the destabilizing demonstrations.

Starlink devices, clearly present during the protests given local photo and video evidence, are illegal in Iran and authorities are still trying to uncover and hunt down presumed smuggling networks.

Russian media taking note of the emerging story:

US SMUGGLED 1,000S of Starlink terminals into IRAN after protests erupted — WSJ report

In 'an effort to keep dissidents ONLINE'

'Provided covert support' to RIOTERS pic.twitter.com/s6tEezhtJA

— RT (@RT_com) February 12, 2026

The State Dept has been calling its ongoing purchases of Starlink terminals for Iran part of an 'internet freedom' initiative, but if the situation were reversed, Washington obviously wouldn't stand for it. It is easy to imagine American outrage in the scenario where Iran was the one issuing communications equipment to anti-Trump protesters in the US on a mass scale, for example.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:50

Half Of Gen Z Brings Parents To Job Interviews: Survey

Authored by Oscar Mackey via The College Fix,

80% said their parents have communicated with their manager at least once...

Over 50% of college-age job seekers had their parents sit with them at an in-person interview, a January survey by Resume Templates found.  What’s more, over 35% of surveyed individuals reported parents either writing a cover letter or performing a test assignment for them.  

Julia Toothacre, a career coach and chief career strategist at the survey group, said she had never seen parents this involved in their child’s job searches in the past. 

“When I was doing career development at the college level, we would see parents come in to talk about majors and sometimes career choices, but they weren’t sitting in on interviews or communicating with managers,” Toothacre told The College Fix in a recent interview via email.

When asked what she believed caused this trend, Toothacre replied, “I think COVID played a larger role in this parental involvement than many people want to admit.” 

She elaborated:

“Right now, one of the main factors is the unpredictable market. I think parents are seeing how difficult it’s been to get hired and how many entry-level and early-career positions are being replaced with AI or simply being limited. 

“Second, I believe this generation, while more emotionally aware, also experiences greater anxiety than previous generations. Couple that with living through COVID during formative years, and there is going to be a portion of this generation that feels like they need additional support,” Toothacre told The Fix.

The survey polled young adults ages 18-23.  

Parental involvement in this survey was defined as “the actions a parent took for their child during the job search process.”

The young adults surveyed reported parental involvement was often repeated.  They also said parents submitted applications (64%), completed test assignments (51%), and sat in on in-person interviews (51%). 

Additionally, 80% said their parents have communicated with their manager at least once, including 67% who reported multiple instances.  During these interactions, the most common topic was their schedule or hours (58%), and the second most common was workplace accommodations (38%).  

What’s more, young men were more likely to report repeated involvement by their parents than young women: 70% of men said their parents submitted an application for them compared to 59% of women.  Young men also reported a similar trend in parents writing emails (61% vs. 52%) and joining multiple in-person interviews (57% vs. 47%).

The career service group also polled 181 parents in a separate survey. A majority of the parents said their involvement was requested by their child, and their reasons for doing tasks on their child’s behalf included a difficult job market, inexperience, and anxiety.  

According to the parents surveyed, 71% reported their adult child requesting help, while 25% offered help.  

When asked about the survey, Lenore Skenazy, a journalist and founder of Let Grow, a movement advocating for child independence, said parents to step back and let their children learn more on their own. Speaking with The Fix in a recent phone interview, she said doing so encourages resilience and independence. 

“It’s a natural impulse, helping our kids,” Skenazy said. 

And while it’s good for young adults to ask for help, she said parents also need to let their children step up. The older children become, the more parents need to trust them to do things on their own, Skenazy said.

A 2024 survey by Resume Templates found similar results with one in four young adults saying they brought their parents to a job interview, The Fix reported previously.

“[I]t’s becoming clear that constant adult supervision and intervention are hurting young people. This over-assistance is undermining their self-confidence and competence,” Skenazy told The Fix at the time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:25

India's Richest Man Sees Company Shares Dip After OFAC Request On Iranian LPG Allegations

Shares of Adani Enterprises Ltd fell as much as 3.5% in Mumbai earlier this week before trimming losses, after the company disclosed that a US agency has sought information over alleged imports of Iranian petroleum products.

In a stock exchange filing, the flagship of the Adani Group said it received a request on Feb. 4 from the US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), according to Telegraph India and Bloomberg.

The outreach followed voluntary discussions the company initiated after a June 2025 Wall Street Journal report that claimed Adani-linked firms may have brought Iranian liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) into India, potentially exposing transactions to US sanctions risk.

The company said OFAC is conducting a civil inquiry into certain transactions routed through US financial institutions that may have involved, directly or indirectly, Iran or sanctioned parties. It emphasized that the communication “does not contain any findings of aberrations/non-compliances” and that it is “voluntarily engaging and fully co-operating” with the US authority.

The Journal had reported that US prosecutors were examining whether companies controlled by billionaire Gautam Adani imported Iranian LPG through Mundra port in Gujarat. It also said some tankers operating between Mundra and the Persian Gulf displayed characteristics experts associate with sanctions evasion. Purchases of Iranian oil and related products are restricted under US sanctions tied to Tehran’s nuclear programme.

At the time, the conglomerate described the allegations as “baseless and mischievous” and said it “categorically denies any deliberate engagement in sanctions evasion or trade involving Iranian-origin LPG.” The group added that it does not handle cargo from Iran at its ports or manage vessels owned by Iranian entities.

Adani Enterprises said the matter has no financial impact. LPG contributed 1.46% of the company’s revenue and about 0.5% of overall group revenue in the fiscal year ended March 2025. It added that it halted all LPG imports from June 2, 2025, out of “abundant caution.”

The inquiry comes as the group continues to face scrutiny in the US, including a separate bribery probe and earlier allegations of stock manipulation and accounting irregularities by short seller Hindenburg Research in 2023, claims the conglomerate has denied.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 18:00

China's Central Bank Keeps Buying Gold... And Dumping US Debt

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

China’s ferocious appetite for gold is influencing the global metals market, and that demand is what will keep driving up metal prices, according to Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital.

The People’s Bank of China’s gold holdings totaled 74.19 million fine troy ounces by the end of January, up from 74.15 million in the previous month, according to recent central bank data.

Beijing’s value of gold reserves also surged to $369.58 billion, from $319.45 billion in December 2025.

Gold accounts for almost 9 percent of China’s total reserves, the World Gold Council estimates.

The metals market has been on a roller coaster ride over the past few months.

Gold prices are currently trading at about $5,000 per ounce—up by 17 percent this year—on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Silver, the sister commodity to gold, is hovering at about $80 per ounce. The white metal has fallen sharply since reaching an all-time high of $121.

The commodities boom will continue, with a focus on oil and gold, Howell said in a recent interview with Siyamak Khorrami, host of EpochTV’s “California Insider.”

Global financial markets are experiencing a commodities boom, particularly in industrials, which coincides with the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. At the same time, Howell said, energy is also witnessing a dramatic increase.

“Stronger economic activity worldwide will elevate oil prices from their current subdued levels,” he said. “Gold has had a tremendous rally over the last 18 months. It’s defied most predictions, but it continues to go up.”

China is playing an outsized role in its meteoric ascent.

Although retail traders are fueling sizable inflows into gold investments, China has been on a gold-buying spree for years as part of the country’s de-dollarization efforts.

For more than a decade, Beijing has been diversifying its foreign exchange reserves to reduce its exposure to the U.S. dollar and American assets, particularly Treasury securities.

In October, China’s holdings of U.S. debt fell to $688.7 billion, down by nearly 10 percent from the previous year, according to Treasury Department data.

Reports have surfaced that Chinese regulators have advised banks to trim their holdings of U.S. government bonds because of market volatility. Whether this shows up in the data over the coming months could further cement China’s long-term plans to ditch the dollar and remain in gold.

Influential Force in Gold Markets

As China remains one of the world’s largest buyers, it will also maintain an immense influence in global gold markets, according to Howell.

“The reason gold is going up is because of what’s happening in China,” he said.

It is no secret that China has largely shaped the global metals market through physical demand, whether through industrial consumption or retail use.

But recent activity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange indicates that Beijing is also influencing prices, said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING.

“Rising turnover and open interest signal a greater role for speculative positioning in driving momentum, and notably, key price breaks in gold and silver have increasingly occurred during Asian hours, with Europe and the US following rather than leading,” Manthey said in a Feb. 6 research note.

Domestic investors are increasingly turning to commodity futures to express macro views and hedge risks, as property markets are weak, equities are uneven, and capital outflows face tighter controls, according to Manthey.

In this environment of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, metals—across the base and precious spectrum—have become a more prominent alternative investment channel.

Gold trading at a premium in China sends various signals to global markets, mainly the sign that domestic stockpiling is underway. This, Manthey said, sends the message that supplies are tightening and worldwide availability could be tightening.

Although fundamentals trump short-term speculative forces in precious metals, influential noise can trigger greater volatility and abrupt, sharper price corrections.

The Great Debasement

One long-term factor supporting the bullish case for gold is money printing.

Over the years, China has frequently engaged in monetary debasement through aggressive stimulus programs.

Howell estimates that officials have injected more than $1 trillion in liquidity into the financial system to prop up the world’s second-largest economy amid diminished household demand, trade strife, and slowing factory activity. At the same time, China is grappling with enormous debt.

“China’s probably got the biggest problem of the lot, because it’s still sitting on that huge real estate debt which has been saddling the economy,” Howell said.

Although Evergrande and Country Garden have not captured international attention lately, the fallout of China’s real estate bubble burst persists, featuring a mountain of red ink.

Today, China’s general government debt accounts for more than 100 percent of gross domestic product, reflecting the years-long dependence on credit-fueled growth.

The only solution for the authorities to prevent a debt-fueled crisis is to print money, according to Howell. Although defaults are one strategy, they would inevitably destroy the credit system.

“So what happens is central banks come in, and they print money, and that is the solution to every financial crisis you can think of going backwards, and that will be the solution to future financial crises,” Howell said.

“Given the fact that the debt levels are rising remorselessly year after year after year, politicians are kicking the can down the road,” he said. “They’ve got no appetite to control spending, and they just think the easy way out is either take on more debt or print money.”

At a time when assets have become the go-to investment for institutional investors and armchair traders, one of the most important strategies is to refrain from selling gold.

“You don’t want to be selling gold right now,” he said. “Strategically, you’ve got to hold gold.”

Good as Gold

In 10 years, gold could reach $10,000 per ounce, according to Howell—and he is not the only one presenting a bullish prognostication.

Yardeni Research forecasts $10,000 by the end of the decade.

“This is all happening because rising geopolitical tensions are driving a military arms race, and defense companies need metals to increase their output,” Yardeni Research said in a Jan. 25 research note.

“Also boosting metals prices is the geopolitical AI arms race, which is escalating capital spending on technology.”

Meanwhile, “deep currents” are supporting gold’s rally, such as U.S. deficit spending and central bank buying, said David Miller, senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds.

“These are very powerful forces and will likely drive gold significantly higher over the next three, five, or even [10] years,” Miller said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 17:40

US Forces Pull Out Of Syria's Tanf Base, Hand Over To Jolani Regime

After many years of being there, American forces have withdrawn from the Al-Tanf Garrison, a base in southern Syria near the borders of Iraq and Jordan, according to fresh reporting in AFP.

US troops had long operated out of Tanf to pressure the Assad government as part of the long-running US-backed regime change project. The US primarily trained the Syrian Free Army (FSA) in that remote desert area - which was an umbrella group of various factions, likely among them jihadists, armed and funded by Washington.

Wiki Commons

A Syrian military source told AFP and other international outlets Wednesday that the "American forces withdrew entirely from Al-Tanf base today" and relocated to a Jordan base.

The report said that Syrian military personnel replaced the US forces - but that the Pentagon will "continue to coordinate with the base in Al-Tanf from Jordan."

So after over a decade-long proxy war, the bearded 'ISIS-lite' jihadists of Jolani/Sharaa's army were just handed an American base overnight. Perhaps that was the plan all along. Al Jazeera provides further confirmation:

Syrian ⁠forces ⁠have taken control of the strategic al-Tanf military base near the border with Iraq and Jordan, the Syrian defense ministry has said, amid the withdrawal of a longstanding United States troop presence at the base.

The ministry said in a statement on Thursday that Syrian Arab Army units had taken control of al-Tanf, securing the base and its surroundings, "through coordination between the Syrian and American sides".

Army units had "begun deploying along the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordanian" border nearby, the ministry said, while border guards would be deployed in the coming days.

It was only in December that an insider attack took place in the central town of Palmyra, resulting two US soldiers and a civilian killed. Washington tried to pass it off as a "lone ISIS gunman" but the Syrian government itself admitted the attacker belonged to their security forces.

US officials have admitted to The Wall Street Journal that post-Assad Syrian Army is "riddled with jihadist sympathizers, including soldiers with ties to al-Qaeda and ISIS and others who have been involved in alleged war crimes against the Kurds and Druze."

In northeastern Syria, a place where most US troops are based, there have been signs of large-scale withdrawal into Iraq over the last several weeks.

This has been extremely controversial as the US-backed Kurds and SDF forces have been attacked as Damascus forces move in. The Kurds are once again being thrown under the bus, with no support, after having been armed and trained by Washington for much of the last decade. Abandonment of the stateless Kurds has been a clear pattern over time.

Tyler Durden Thu, 02/12/2026 - 17:20