"Dangerous Precedent Of Censorship And Sanitization": Biden-Appointed Judge Enjoins Removal Of Slavery And Climate Displays

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

George Santayana famously said that those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. The same is true for judicial overreach. Those judges who yield to the temptation to counter policies that are not to their liking are likely to repeat such excesses of power. That is why the recent decision of U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley in Boston is so concerning. While there are good-faith reasons why some have objected to the removal of slavery and climate change exhibits from national parks and monuments, this is not about the merits but the authority to make such changes. Kelley’s recent injunction smacks of judicial excess rather than measured review.

Judge Kelley, a Biden appointee, issued a preliminary injunction at the behest of groups representing park conservationists, historians and scientists, who argued that the U.S. Department of the Interior has been engaged in a “sustained campaign to erase history and undermine science.”

The complaint is heavily laden with subjective views of historical relevance that are obviously not shared by the Administration. These interpretations were installed under the discretion of the Biden Administration. They were removed under the same inherent discretion of the Trump Administration.

In March 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order reversing his predecessor on what he viewed as a “revisionist movement” that portrayed the U.S. as “inherently racist, sexist, oppressive, or otherwise irredeemably flawed.”

He ordered the Interior Department to make changes to parks, monuments and memorials to address any “false revision of history” that the White House said had occurred in recent years.

Some of the displays discuss the abuses of indigenous populations or the enslavement of persons at these sites. I happen to agree with the Court that such context is important for citizens to fully appreciate our history. The issue, however, is who legally decides on such interpretive displays.

For example, I strongly disagreed with the African American Museum in the exclusion Justice Clarence Thomas from displays of great African Americans.  While I supported those in Congress seeking answers from the Smithsonian, I never viewed the material as a violation of federal law or worthy of judicial intervention. Notably, these historical groups and experts did not file actions in federal court to force his inclusion.

That was, of course, the individual decision of one museum. However, the question is why the Administration can make such individual decisions rather than department-wide or branch-wide decisions. Likewise, it is difficult to see the limiting principle here. If President Trump said that he wanted to emphasize certain elements like patriotism and these displays were substituted, would that also be a violation of federal law?

The challengers invoked federal law to argue that the Trump Administration was wrong and that the action was therefore arbitrary and capricious. The action is based on loose interpretations of the National Park Service Organic Act, the National Park Service Centennial Act, and the National Parks Omnibus Management Act, as well as the Administrative Procedure Act.

Judge Kelley chastises the Administration for removing displays that “do not align with its preferred narrative.” However, the original displays were themselves a preferred narrative by the prior Administration.

Judge Kelley invokes generally worded federal laws to require the Administration to seek out and heed the wisdom of historical experts on such questions, despite the views of other experts who agree with the action.

She declared that the removal of the displays not only undermines “the integrity of the National Parks; it sets a dangerous precedent of censorship and sanitization.”

The court notes that “the Secretary’s Order fails to provide any reasoned justification for its directive to review and remove interpretive material.” Yet, that would seem abundantly obvious from the cited Executive Order and the purpose of the change. The real question is whether this type of action requires more than the exercise of discretion. Agencies and offices routinely make such decisions on displays. The only difference is a branch-wide order.

The court’s cited authority is itself vague and undefined. For example, Judge Kelley holds that “The Order mentions the Organic Act and the FLPMA as ‘Authority’ but does not explain its relationship to those statutes, such as how the removal of interpretive materials comports with the Organic Act’s mandate to ‘conserve’ and to ‘provide for the enjoyment’ of park resources. 54 U.S.C. § 100101(a).”

The Administration is citing the sweeping discretion afforded under federal law.

However, the Court suggests it can micromanage the branch in making decisions about interpretative displays under this language.

Once again, I may agree with these historians on some of this material but it is immaterial — as immaterial as Judge Kelley’s qualms.

In my view, the court’s analysis is deeply flawed and should be reversed.

Here is the decision: National Park Conservation Association v. Department of the Interior

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 14:25

Could Trump's Fable 5 Export Curbs Slow China's AI Model Race

The biggest AI story to start the week is the Trump administration's decision to place export controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models, forcing Dario Amodei's frontier AI lab to restrict foreign access.

The move comes as Chinese open-source models have been rapidly closing the compute gap with U.S. labs. Anthropic's latest release appears to have widened that gap again, particularly in frontier reasoning, coding, and cybersecurity use cases.

Export controls could have second-order effects on the global AI race, according to analysts at Jefferies. By limiting access to Anthropic's most advanced models, Trump officials may slow the pace at which foreign developers, particularly in China, can study, benchmark, or distill these advanced frontier models into cheaper open-source systems.

"US models are improving at a faster pace, likely due to computational advantage, but anti- distillation and US export control are new negatives for China AI," the analysts wrote in a note on Sunday.

The key question now is whether Fable 5 and Mythos 5 include stronger anti-distillation safeguards to prevent Chinese labs from replicating or compressing Anthropic's advances into open-source models. If so, the export curbs may not just be about access. They may represent a broader effort to protect America's AI lead.

To understand the full AI model landscape, not just in the West but also in the East, Bank of America analysts, led by Alex Liu, penned an insightful note on Monday morning about leading Chinese models.

Liu wrote that China's AI model market is moving into a two-speed global structure, with U.S. labs likely to retain the lead in frontier capabilities while Chinese players gain share in lower-cost, high-volume use cases.

She noted that Chinese models are narrowing the gap through efficiency gains, architecture optimization, distillation, and lower-cost inference, making them increasingly affordable.

Liu said AI labs at Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, and Baidu are racing against independent labs, such as DeepSeek, Zhipu, MiniMax, and Moonshot AI.

Who's who in the China AI model market

Incumbents

• Major internet companies such as ByteDance, Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent—many of which have established cloud businesses—have developed proprietary AI foundation models in-house.

Independent AI labs

• DeepSeek, MiniMax, Zhipu, and Moonshot AI are independent AI labs

China AI model landscape is intensely competitive

Investing landscape of Chinese AI labs  

Liu's view is that China AI has shifted from a frontier story to an affordability story. But with the U.S. government now able to halt foreign access to advanced models, as it just did with Anthropic's Fable 5, it appears increasingly difficult for Chinese labs to copy, distill, or reverse-engineer U.S. frontier models.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 14:05

What Could Break The Bull Market This Summer

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Key Takeaways

• After nine straight up weeks, the bull market pullback we flagged finally arrived, and it stopped cold at the 50-day moving average.

• The selloff reset an overbought tape without breaking trend. RSI fell from above 70 to the low 40s, and Thursday’s bounce came on broad participation.

• Our Money Flow Breadth Ratio ticked up to 60%, back in buy territory, and we’re holding equity exposure at 100%.

• The bigger risks haven’t gone anywhere: record margin debt, fading retail demand, and a 10-year Treasury that now out-yields the S&P 500.

• This sets up more upside for now. It does not erase the odds of a deeper correction this summer if forward earnings expectations crack.

Two weeks ago, after the S&P 500 logged its ninth consecutive weekly gain, we discussed that a bull market pullback was coming. It came. From the May 27 record near 7,621, the index slid 4.5% and bottomed almost exactly on its 50-day moving average before ripping back to close Friday at 7,431.46. That is not the opening act of a bear market. That is the kind of bull market pullback that resets sentiment and, more often than not, clears the runway for the next leg higher. The harder question is what happens after the bounce.

The Correction We Told You To Expect

Make no mistake, I have been warning about the potential for a pullback over the last few weeks and repeatedly discussed taking profits and rebalancing risk. As I wrote in “Two-Month Market Rally: What Comes Next,” a market that climbs for 9 straight weeks gets stretched, and stretched markets tend to mean-revert. The only real questions were the “when” and “how much.” We suggested a bull-market pullback of 3% to 5%; toward the 50-day moving average, would be most likely. However, a larger correction is still possible. As noted, the actual decline ran 4.5% peak to trough and found its floor exactly where trend-followers add rather than abandon.

Notably, the dip buyers showed up on cue. When the S&P probed the mid-7,200s on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week, the same crowd that has bought every dip since the April 2025 low stepped in again, and by Friday the index had clawed back roughly a quarter of the prior week’s 2.64% drubbing. That close at 7,431.46 leaves the larger uptrend fully intact, sitting about 2.5% below the high rather than careening away from it.

Crucially, the setup still favors the bulls, at least for now.

First, the damage was technical, not structural. The 14-day RSI ran above 70 at the late-May high and fell to the low 40s at this month’s lows before settling back near 53. In plain terms, the market burned off its overbought condition without violating the trend, which is textbook.

Second, the quality of the bounce mattered. Thursday’s 1.75% surge came on broad participation rather than three megacaps doing all the lifting, and broad thrusts off support tend to mark real lows instead of dead-cat bounces.

Third, our own money-flow work agrees. The Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) is a rules-based model that “systematically adjusts portfolio equity exposure in response to the direction and persistence of institutional capital flows.” We use this analysis to size equity exposure in portfolios, and the MFBR ticked up to 60% as of June 12 and sits back in buy territory after sliding to 55% the prior week. The trailing four-week net flow has swung sharply positive following a deeply negative stretch, which historically reads as a contrarian buy. We’ve held exposure at 100% since April 17, and this signal keeps us there.

“As of June 12, 2026, with the S&P 500 at 7,431.46, the Money Flow Breadth Ratio (MFBR) stands at 60% and rising. This places the indicator in BUY territory (60-70%), triggering a NEUTRAL signal. The prior week reading was 55%, representing a 10% decline over the trailing four weeks. The model currently recommends HOLDING exposure at 100%, a level that has remained since April 17, 2026 (8 weeks). This reflects a FLOW-OVERLAY OVERRIDE: the trailing 4-week net dollar flow has swung sharply positive (>$300B) after a deeply negative prior 4 weeks, a historically strong contrarian buy signal.” – Bull Bear Report June 13th

The map from here is simple. Overhead, the 20-DMA at 7,466 is the first hurdle, then the round 7,500 mark, then the 7,621 record. Below, the 50-DMA at 7,248 is the line in the sand, with the 38.2% retracement at 7,118 and the rising 200-DMA at 6,882 beneath it. Hold 7,248 through Wednesday’s Fed meeting, and this stays a routine shakeout inside an uptrend.

What Could Break The Trade This Summer

None of that means you switch off your risk management. As we warned in “Leadership Is Narrow” and again in “Market Correction Risk,” the ingredients for a deeper drawdown are quietly building underneath a rising tape. Three of them deserve your attention.

Start with leverage. FINRA margin debt hit a record $1.30 trillion in April, up better than a third in a year, and now runs near 4% of GDP against a long-run median closer to 1.5%. Measured against M2, it’s back near the peaks that preceded the 2000 and 2007 tops. Borrowed money cuts both ways. It is an accelerant, not a cushion.

Next, watch the retail bid. Vanda’s flow data shows single-stock retail net turnover rolling over into negative territory in recent sessions, even as prices grind higher. That divergence matters. When the buyer who powered this rally starts selling into strength, the marginal source of demand thins out right as the supply picture gets heavier.

Then there’s the cold math on bonds versus stocks. The 10-year Treasury now yields about 4.45%, while the S&P 500’s trailing earnings yield sits near 3.7%. For the first time in this cycle, a risk-free Treasury pays you MORE than the index earns. That flips the equity risk premium negative and hands every allocator a credible, paid-to-wait reason to trim equities into bonds.

Layer on the supply story as detailed in “Equity Supply Surge”: Alphabet’s $80 billion secondary, SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO, and a queue of mega-raises from OpenAI, Anthropic, and the hyperscalers mean the market has to absorb a wall of new paper. More shares chasing the same dollars is a persistent headwind, not a one-day shock. As we noted in “Parabolic Semiconductor Rally,” when the most prized names all rush the exit at once, it pays to ask who is selling.

How We’re Positioning

So how do we square a buy signal with a real list of worries? We hold exposure and manage risk simultaneously. Those two things aren’t in conflict. The MFBR keeps us invested because the weight of the evidence and a clean test of support still point higher. Bob Farrell’s fourth rule reminds us that exponential moves tend to run further than anyone expects and then correct violently. Markets like that never correct gently. Therefore, we keep trailing stops disciplined, we refuse to chase the SpaceX-fueled enthusiasm at the highs, and we watch 7,248 like a hawk.

The calendar adds a second reason for that discipline. We’re walking into the weakest stretch of the year. As I detailed in “Market Correction Risk: Why Summer 2026 Looks Risky,” the May-through-October window has produced an average S&P 500 gain of just 1.7% since 1950, compared with better than 7% in November through April. The old “sell in May” line gets mocked every spring by people who haven’t looked at the data. The data is one-sided.

Then stack the election cycle on top. 2026 is a midterm year, and midterm years are the weakest and most volatile leg of the four-year presidential cycle. Jeff Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac has tracked the pattern for decades, and the numbers are sobering. Going back to the early 1960s, the average intra-year drawdown in a midterm year runs around 17% to 18%. That is well above the roughly 13% you see in the other three years. Notably, volatility tends to build up ahead of the November vote as investors handicap the balance of power in Congress.

Here’s the part that keeps me constructive, though. That midterm weakness has historically been a setup, not an ending. The 12 months after a midterm election have delivered an average S&P 500 gain of more than 12%. Furthermore, the Dow has climbed by more than 45% on average from its midterm-year low to its pre-election-year high. So the same seasonal soft patch that turns a routine bull market pullback into a deeper summer correction has, time and again, been the launchpad for the next leg up. We manage risk now, NOT because the bull market is over. We do it because we want dry powder and a steady hand when the seasonal low shows up.

None of this is about going to cash and hiding. It’s about tilting the book so you can sit through a noisy summer and still have ammunition for the fall. Here’s the playbook we’re running.

Howard Marks said it best.

“The riskiest thing in markets is the belief that there is no risk.”

With high-yield spreads pinned near 300 basis points, the market is pricing almost none. That’s exactly the backdrop where this kind of playbook earns its keep. Stay invested, but keep one hand on the exit.

The catalyst that turns a healthy pullback into something deeper won’t be a single oil-soaked CPI print. It’ll be the moment forward earnings expectations start to roll over while valuations sit at the high end of history. We aren’t there yet. Watch the Fed on Wednesday, watch wages, and watch whether second-half earnings estimates hold. The trend is your friend right up until the day it isn’t. Our job between now and then is to stay invested without going blind.

What’s your read? Are you adding to this dip or trimming into strength? Does the gap between a bullish tape and a long list of risks have you second-guessing your own positioning? If so, that’s exactly the conversation worth having. Connect with our team, and let’s pressure-test your portfolio before the summer does it for you.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 13:45

Apollo Picks Austin Over New York As Wall Street's Migration South Continues

It's not just Citadel that's moving out of New York.

Apollo Global Management has chosen Austin, Texas, as its second headquarters, according to sources familiar with the decision. The firm, which manages about $1 trillion in assets, evaluated Austin, Miami, Palm Beach, and Nashville before CEO Marc Rowan selected Austin, according to Financial Times.

The new office is expected to host most future hiring as Apollo expands beyond its longtime New York base. While the decision has been communicated internally, it is not yet final.

Austin's appeal includes its strong talent pipeline, growing tech ecosystem, quality of life, and business-friendly environment. Texas has increasingly attracted major financial and corporate employers, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, SpaceX, and ExxonMobil.

FT writes that Apollo has been broadening its U.S. footprint since the pandemic, opening major offices in Connecticut and Florida. The firm now employs more than 4,000 people, over double its 2020 headcount.

Although New York remains Apollo's primary headquarters, the company has stated that most future growth is expected to occur in its second HQ. Austin reportedly also benefited from concerns among employees about limited private-school options in Miami.

Apollo's decision highlights a broader trend reshaping the financial industry. As taxes, regulatory costs, and political uncertainty continue to rise in New York, firms are increasingly looking elsewhere for growth. Critics argue that Mayor Zohran Mamdani's antagonistic rhetoric toward business and his support for higher taxes have reinforced concerns among executives and investors, accelerating the migration of talent and capital to states such as Texas and Florida.

For companies weighing where to expand, Austin's pro-business environment and lower tax burden are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 13:25

America's Largest Wind Farm To Begin Operations This Month

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The SunZia Wind Project, the largest wind farm in the United States, is scheduled to kick off operations this month, roughly three years after construction activities began on the project, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a June 12 statement.

“The wind farm, located in New Mexico, has a total net summer generating capacity of 3,650 megawatts (MW) and is composed of 916 wind turbines,” the EIA said.

“SunZia’s capacity is more than three times larger than the next two largest wind farms, Alta Wind in Southern California (1,098 MW) and Great Prairie in northern Texas (1,027 MW).”

Some of the turbines had already begun producing power and contributing to the electricity grid by April this year, during a testing phase. The wind farm, spread across three counties, is coming online after almost two decades of permitting and planning.

Once operational, much of the wind farm’s power will be exported to Southern California and Arizona.

According to Pattern Energy, which built the project, the wind farm and electricity transmission projects are estimated to generate $20.5 billion in economic benefits throughout the project’s life.

Local governments, private landowners, schools, and communities are estimated to receive $1.3 billion in direct payments.

In terms of employment, the project is calculated to have created more than 2,000 construction jobs.

The EIA said that once SunZia comes online, it will push up New Mexico’s net summer wind generating capacity from 3,997 to 7,647 MW. Wind power will account for 45 percent of the state’s energy capacity mix, followed by 19 percent each from solar and natural gas.

“To be able to export the power generated by this project, Pattern Energy also built the SunZia Transmission Project—a 550-mile high-voltage direct current transmission line that goes from the SunZia Wind Project site in central New Mexico to south-central Arizona,” the EIA said.

“Of the SunZia transmission line’s 3,021 MW of power capacity, 2,131 MW will be delivered and consumed in Southern California.”

According to a fact sheet from Pattern Energy, the SunZia wind farm was developed with a “deep commitment to environmental stewardship” and involved discussions with local, regional, and national conservation stakeholders.

The project will provide “clean power” to 3 million Americans annually. It will save more than 7 billion gallons of water per year compared to coal-fired power and avoid more than 13 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, equivalent to removing roughly 3 million cars from the road.

Curtailing Wind Power

The Trump administration has actively worked to remove incentives for wind power projects, citing concerns about energy security.

In July 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the administration to end federal subsidies for wind and solar energy facilities.

Trump said in the order that these renewable energy sources make America dependent on foreign-controlled supply chains and threaten national security.

Wind and solar power tech rely on materials whose supply chains are controlled by China; for instance, lithium, graphite, cobalt, and manganese are critical to the storage batteries used in wind and solar projects. These rare-earth elements are crucial for the development of wind turbines.

The same month, the Department of the Interior implemented policy measures, such as restoring the congressional mandate to consider all uses of public land and waters equally, to end what it termed “special treatment” accorded to “unreliable energy sources” such as wind power. While fossil fuels can generate power at any time, sources such as wind depend on the weather.

In August 2025, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum signed an order to rein in wind and solar power projects. 

“One advanced nuclear plant ... produces 33.17 megawatts (MW) per acre, while one offshore wind farm produces approximately 0.006 MW/acre, which is approximately 5,500 times less efficient than one nuclear plant,” the department said at the time.

Earlier this month, seven states, including New York and New Jersey, sued the Trump administration over a deal the federal government made with a French wind farm developer. The deal led to the cancellation of an offshore lease intended to develop wind farms and stalled New York’s offshore wind power plans.

“For more than a year, offshore wind has faced an unprecedented and unrelenting campaign of political interference despite billions in private investment, state commitments, and court rulings,” Liz Burdock, president of industry group Oceantic Network, said in a statement.

Meanwhile, solar power overtook coal in the United States’ electricity mix for the first ever month on record in May, energy think tank Ember said in a June 10 statement.

“Solar supplied a record 12.8 percent of US electricity, while coal fell to 12.2 percent, its fourth-lowest monthly share ever,” the company said.

“The share of coal generation in the US mix has nearly halved in the last five years, falling from 19.7 percent in May 2021 to 12.2 percent in May 2026. In contrast, solar power’s share of the mix more than doubled from 5.4 percent to 12.8 percent over the same period.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 13:05

U.S.-Iran Deal Doesn't Mean A Swift Return Of Oil And Gas Flows

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• A U.S.-Iran agreement could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but shipping and production will not immediately return to normal.
• More than 10 million bpd of Middle Eastern oil production has been shut in, and some fields may take months to restart fully.
• Iraq faces a slower recovery than Saudi Arabia or the UAE because its southern exports depend heavily on access through Basrah.

The U.S.-Iran deal and the potentially imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz do not mean that oil and gas trade will quickly return to its previous levels. The announcement of the deal is just the first step, and it could take months for oil and gas shipments in the region to return to pre-war levels.

Middle Eastern producers have been forced to shut in more than 10 million barrels per day of oil production since the Strait of Hormuz was closed three and a half months ago. Producers will need months to fully ramp up wells to previous output levels, while the status of the Strait of Hormuz - even if it re-opens on Friday as expected - is still unclear.

"We don't know what open means or what the speed of evacuation of trapped material is going to be," Daniel Sternoff, senior fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, told AP late on Sunday.

Some producers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates would be quicker to restore output compared to Iraq, for example, which had to curtail the highest proportion of its production due to its inability to move the crude out of its southern fields through Basrah.

"Places like Iraq could be much more challenged because they've had a much bigger shut-in, their fields are more difficult," Alan Gelder, senior vice president of refining, chemicals, and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said.

"It may well take about a year before they get back," the expert told AP.

At the end of May, WoodMac's analysts said that assuming operators choose a measured and controlled ramp-up, the fields affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure could get back to 70% of prior production within three months and to 90% within six months. The last 1 million bpd or so will take considerably longer, according to the energy consultancy.

According to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, "The speed at which supply chains normalise and export flows recover will also play a key role in determining how much of the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market."

Already, some shipping companies have made it clear that they will wait until the deal is formalized on Friday before attempting to cross the Strait. Even for shipowners who are willing to make the crossing, organizing insurance and other practical issues could further delay the recovery.

The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could well mark the end of the war between Iran and the U.S., but it marks only the beginning of what will likely be a long road to recovery for the oil and gas industry.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 12:25

First LNG Tanker Crosses Hormuz After Deal Announcement As Most Ship Managers Remain Cautious

An LNG carrier successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz early on Monday, the first tanker carrying energy products to clear the chokepoint since the U.S. and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait later this week, according to OilPrice.com

While tanker owners and operators remain cautious about rushing to send vessels to the area or having the ones inside the Persian Gulf move quickly toward Hormuz, one LNG tanker passed through the Strait today, carrying LNG to India.

The LNG tanker Disha cleared Hormuz and is currently in the Gulf of Oman, ship-tracking data on MarineTraffic showed. The tanker had loaded LNG from Qatar’s Ras Laffan in early March, just when the Gulf state halted LNG production and exports amid the closed Strait of Hormuz and Iranian missile hits on its LNG infrastructure at Ras Laffan.

The first LNG carrier to transit the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of the US-Iran MOU.

Qatari LNG cargo is heading to India

Map form @Kpler https://t.co/b3t6IWgbGx pic.twitter.com/W44b8SgYSS

— Anas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) June 15, 2026

The tanker is now en route to India, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Monday. 

India has had several LNG tankers from Qatar move through the Strait of Hormuz in the past months, after securing and negotiating corridors with Iran. 

Now the tentative U.S.-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease the traffic congestion and allow more tankers to head to the Middle East to pick up supplies. If the deal holds.

That said, tanker owners and operators await clearance to proceed and are not rushing to test the passage until they have assurances it is safe to do so.

“While we are aware of signs of progress towards a ceasefire, our policy remains unchanged; we will only resume navigation once safety has been fully confirmed,” a spokesperson for Japan’s Mitsui O.S.K. Lines told Reuters on Monday. 

According to MarineTraffic, vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues, but traffic patterns remain uneven and visibility remains limited: 29 verified vessel crossings were recorded between 10 and 14 June, covering crude, refined products, LPG, chemicals, methanol, and general cargo movements. Activity was concentrated on 11 and 12 June, while directional flows remained imbalanced: 23 crossings moved west-to-east, compared with six in the opposite direction.

Additionally, route transparency also remains a key issue, with 18 crossings, or around 62%, classified as Dark or Unknown Route. Two sanctioned vessels were also identified during the period.

Strait of Hormuz traffic remains uneven

Vessel activity through the Strait of Hormuz continues, but traffic patterns remain uneven and visibility remains limited. According to #MarineTraffic data, 29 verified vessel crossings were recorded between 10 and 14 June, covering crude,… pic.twitter.com/SXkofITV5Y

— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) June 15, 2026

As Bloomberg notes, two major oil product shippers and a large vessel management firm remain cautious about sailing in the Middle East, even with the US and Iran reaching an interim peace agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Tanker owner Hafnia said the situation remains fluid, and that “to prepare transits, any alleged reopening must be supported by verified security conditions on the ground”

“Hafnia will only resume transits once there is sufficient confidence in the security environment”

Ship owner Torm meanwhile said it will “carefully assess the situation and resume transits when we consider it safe and responsible to do so”
Jesper Kristensen, CEO of Synergy Marine Group, which manages more than 700 vessels, said that “while the announcement is encouraging, sustained stability and predictability over the coming days will matter.”

“It remains too early to draw firm conclusions,” he added.

Finally, as Lloyds List notes, shipowners rushing to reposition vessels and markets are rallying, yet insurers for now are holding firm on high war‑risk premiums, insisting on ‘solid evidence’ of lasting safety before lowering rates.

Industry bodies warn that mine clearance and a return to the formal Traffic Separation Scheme are essential, as Iran’s blockade has permanently altered regional risk and demonstrated its leverage over the strait.

While a pause in hostilities will free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, the sector sees this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality, with elevated risk now embedded in long‑term decision‑making.

Commenting on the situation, a senior US official said that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will see a significant increase in one to two weeks from now, adding that "the flow of traffic will take some time to improve due to mines in the strait."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 12:19

White House Suspects NY Times Reporters Have Situation Room Recordings

Senior Trump administration officials are convinced that two New York Times reporters have somehow obtained recordings of White House Situation Room meetings, which would represent an astounding breach of security, Axios reported on Sunday. 

"We're afraid some of our most sensitive conversations were being recorded," a White House official told Axios. "And we have no idea which ones." 

The White House Situation Room hosts some of the most consequential conversations on Earth 

The two journalists are Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, and the officials are convinced that verbatim Situation Room conversations reproduced in their soon-to-be-released book must have come from recordings of deliberations inside what should be the most secure conference room in the world. The book -- Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump -- will be released on June 23rd, but excerpts already posted by the Times included detailed quotes from conversations that took place in the Situation Room. 

Some of those direct quotes first appeared in an April 7 Times article on the deliberations that took place in the run-up to Trump's decision to team up with Israel in launching a major war on Iran. That report, also by Haberman and Swan, described how administration officials reacted to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aggressive campaign to convince Trump to betray his campaign pledge to avoid regime-change wars.

Netanyahu was said to have assured Trump that Iran's ballistic missile arsenal could be destroyed in just a few weeks, that Iran wouldn't be able to stop traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, that Iran wasn't likely to attack other countries in the region, that a huge protest movement could be sparked into seizing power, and that Kurdish fighters from Iraq might be enticed into attacking. 

Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan's book is touted as providing "unprecedented reporting from deep within the administration's most closely guarded rooms"

Of course, like his infamous 2002 assurance that an invasion of Iraq would have "enormous positive reverberations on the region," all of Netanyahu's assurances about a war on Iran proved spectacularly wrong. At the time, according to Haberman and Swan's reporting, some Trump administration officials were rightly skeptical. The day after Netanyahu's presentation, CIA Director John Ratcliffe was said to have called Netanyahu's pitch "farcical." Secretary of State Marco Rubio was quoted as bluntly restating Ratcliffe's characterization: "In other words, it's bullshit." 

When Trump asked Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine to weigh in, he's quoted as saying, "Sir, this is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed. They know they need us, and that’s why they’re hard-selling." 

Axios notes that the use of quotations doesn't necessarily indicate an audio recording was obtained: "Bob Woodward pioneered contemporary historical political journalism by including dialogue in his books that was reconstructed from the memories of people in the rooms where things happened." However, the fact that senior White House officials are concerned about what they've seen so far suggests that Haberman and Swan's quotes may not be mere reconstructions. What's more, the promotional descriptions of the book tout "unprecedented reporting from deep within the administration’s most closely guarded rooms." 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 12:05

Nvidia To Raise $20BN In Debt From First Bond Sale Since 2021, As AI Debt Frenzy Goes Parabolic

Over the weekend, we published a length report analyzing what we dubbed "the $1.8 trillion off-balance sheet time bomb at the heart of the AI supercycle",  which focused on the recent surge in popularity of off-balance sheet SPVs, as well as $1 trillion in long-term purchase commitments, and $800bn in lease commitments, which support the AI buildout, and do so by masking the true funding costs of the AI buildout, yet which add significantly to off-BS operating leverage. Additionally, when one adds billions in variable lease payments, over $100BN in embedded capex inside accounts payable, as well as the Construction-in-Progress pipeline which reflect capacity built but not yet expensed - and the $520bn cumulative depreciation estimate is where it eventually lands - and one gets a far more ominous picture of the capital stack that is backstopping the biggest infrastructure buildout in US history, which according to Goldman will translate into as much as $1.4 trillion in 2027 capex, and much more in the following years.

We summarized the complex funding picture which is effectively a series of circular financings across the entire AI ecosystem, "vendor financing and repurchase-style arrangements mean a single counterparty's stress can propagate through several balance sheets at once. Think of it as rehypothecated leverage. Concentration compounds it: the >$2tn of remaining performance obligations across major AI players is built on a handful of very large, long-duration contracts, so the backlog that justifies the spending is also a concentrated counterparty exposure."

But even without focusing on the potentially dire consequences of this off-balance sheet funding unwinding, there is a more mundane risk propagating from the AI buildout, and it has to do with the massive leverage unleashed in public debt markets. We spent the first part of our post discussing just that, but the punchline was captured by the following three charts, the first of which shows that YTD, some $236BN in AI-linked debt has been issued, a 357% increase from the same period last year. By year-end, MS expect this number to more than double to $570 billion.

The second, and perhaps most important chart, is the one showing the dramatic increase in hyperscaler gross leverage, which has surged from 0.9x in Q3 '25 to 1.8x currently, doubling in just over two quarters, and surpassing the gross leverage of the entire energy sector. At this rate, hyperscaler debt is growing at about 0.3x turn per quarter.

Not surprisingly, as a result of the surge in combined leverage, hyperscalers are drifting wider, and after trading inside AA spreads for much of 2025, are now on top of A, and as MS warns, "may widen further on supply." And it's not just outlier Oracle: META is now trading wider to CDX IG. 

Putting it all together, what the above indicates is that hyperscalers, and the broader AI ecosystem, has gong into an all-out debt expansion mode, using both on and off-balance sheet vehicles, to fund as much of the infrastructure buildout (now that the price of 1GW of data center has increased from $50BN most recently to as much as $100BN, due to the jump in silicon density with NVDA Rubin-class racks approaching 600kW and every gigawatt carrying far more GPU and HBM content) while the window is open, and - well - while they can.

Today Nvidia could, and according to Bloomberg, Nvidia became the latest company seeking to raise at least $20 billion from its first corporate bond sale since 2021. 

The chipmaker is marketing bonds in seven tranches, with maturities spanning two to 30 years, Bloomberg reports. Price talk on the longest tenor of the Aa1/AA-rated company is a spread of about 0.9% above Treasuries, while the FT adds that "the 10-year portion of the bond was expected to yield 0.75 percentage points above US Treasuries during initial price discussions."

As Bloomberg writes, picking up where we left off, "the deal is extending a relentless wave of borrowing for companies spearheading the artificial intelligence boom. Firms such as Alphabet Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. have been tapping every corner of the debt market to build the computing capacity needed for AI’s rapid expansion, having raised hundreds of billions of dollars since last year. Investors have readily absorbed the supply."

Nvidia said that it intends "to use the net proceeds from this offering for general corporate purposes, including repayment and refinancing of outstanding notes."

Nvidia last tapped the investment-grade bond market in June 2021, when it raised $5 billion. Its ambitions now are far greater.

And yet, as the FT cautions echoing our own warning, "early signs of market fatigue have prompted some tech companies to find alternative avenues for financing."

Anthropic has turned to private credit investors to seal a $35bn deal backed by Broadcom. Google’s parent Alphabet decided to issue equity for the first time in more than two decades, bringing in $85bn in fresh capital earlier this month.

In any case, the bond market clearly remains open for now; however with leverage within the AI space exploding at the fastest pace on record, it may not take much for the window to close at which point the question will again re-emerge: how will the handful of AI-leading companies fund the trillions in unfunded future obligations.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 11:25

US Gas Prices Slip Below Politically Sensitive $4 Level For First Time In Months

Summary:

• GasBuddy's U.S. Gas National Avg. Falls Below $4 per gallon 
• AAA's U.S. Gas National Avg. still slightly Above $4 per gallon (expected to fall) 
• US-Iran Peace Deal Sends Brent and WTI Tumbling 

Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X that the national average price of gasoline has finally slipped below the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for the first time in many months.

Per De Haan:

The nation's average price of gasoline has fallen 9.3 cents over the last week and stands at $3.99 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country.

The national average is down 52.4 cents from a month ago and is 91.1 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel fell 11.7 cents in the last week and stands at $5.182 per gallon.

GasBuddy tracking 26 states where average #gasprices are below $4/gal, with more likely to join in the days ahead, so long as the Strait does reopen. pic.twitter.com/tduDAoGLKX

— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) June 15, 2026

"Average gasoline prices fell in 47 states over the last week, with the national average dropping below $4 per gallon late Sunday for the first time since mid-April," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

De Haan continued, "The decline came as oil prices moved sharply lower in reaction to news of a potential deal between the United States and Iran, though it remains to be seen whether the agreement will hold. A handful of price-cycling states saw averages jump before joining the broader downward trend. The real test now shifts to the Strait of Hormuz, where any reopening and resumption of normal oil flows would be the clearest signal that this relief is durable. For now, the national average could continue falling, provided there isn't a drastic reversal and the U.S. and Iran continue moving in a positive direction."

Looking at WTI crude futures and the AAA national average for gasoline, the implied decline suggests gas prices at the pump could tumble toward $3.75 by mid-summer.

Great news ahead of midterm elections. 

Pump Pain Relief? Gas Above $4 May End Soon As U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Sends Oil Lower

The national average for U.S. gasoline prices has hovered above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for 76 days, or roughly 2.5 months, as the Gulf energy shock tightened physical markets and forced emergency SPR draws.

But with President Trump declaring late Sunday, just 30 minutes before NY futures opened, that a US-Iran peace deal has been secured, and with WTI and Brent futures tumbling, pressure at the pump could begin to ease in the very near term.

National gasoline prices could slip back below $4 in the coming days or weeks if the crude selloff holds and traders begin pricing in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Still, normalization of crude energy flows will likely take months, if not longer, to return to pre-war levels.

As of Sunday evening, AAA data show the national average for 87-octane gasoline stands at around $4.074.

Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X shortly after Trump announced the peace deal that the national average for gas could fall to $3.75 by July 4.

De Haan wrote:

The U.S. and Iran signaling a deal has been struck. The next few days will be key to see if the agreement sticks, and if traffic begins moving in the Strait. WTI crude down 5%, as more confirmations come in days ahead, national average price of gasoline may continue to fade.

Beyond that, the national average could fall below $3.75/gal by July 4, under a optimistic timeline, but hurricane season could be a major wildcard for the rest of summer- tight global inventories mean it will take months or beyond to fully restore global oil inventories.

The next several weeks will be key- one major slip up could impact greatly prices moving forward. And with so many speedbumps in this situation, it may be foolish to think this problem is now completely over. Time will tell.

Surging gas and diesel prices over the last 2.5 months have added downward pressure on consumers, especially working-class households, who were hit with sticker shock at the pump. This shift in spending patterns is a concerning trend we have meticulously detailed:

• Here's What Happened Inside Convenience Stores When Gas Hit $4

• Here's What Happened Inside Gas Stations When Gas Hit $4

• Beer Demand Goes Flat As Even Alcoholics Pull Back With Gas Above $4

• Energy Drinks Become Latest Casualty As Fuel Shock Shifts Consumer Behavior

• Three Factors Leave Salty-Snack Demand Stale

The combination of elevated gas prices and fading tax-refund tailwinds had already begun to expose cracks in the consumer economy, particularly among lower- and middle-income households. That likely served as a warning signal for the Trump administration: resolve the Middle East conflict before worsening consumer sentiment and pain at the pump become much larger political liabilities heading into the midterms.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 11:25

Protests In Los Angeles As Iranian Soccer Team Arrives For 1st World Cup Match

Iranian Americans protested against the regime in Tehran as the Iranian soccer team arrived in Los Angeles for their first World Cup match against New Zealand on June 15.

As the team arrived at the Los Angeles Galaxy’s training ground in Carson, a small group of Iranian Americans shouted, “Down with terrorists!”

The Iranian national team, which traveled to Los Angeles for a #2026WorldCup match, was protested by a group of Iranians in the diaspora carrying US and Israeli flags.

The same group had celebrated while the US and Israel were carrying out military attacks on Iran, and also… pic.twitter.com/XSiciM9tiN

— Antifa_Ultras (@ultras_antifaa) June 15, 2026

As Chris Summers reports via The Epoch Times, the protesters were holding the pre-1979 Iranian flag—emblazoned with a lion and a sun—which is widely used by the Iranian opposition, and some of them also held the flags of the United States and Israel.

FIFA has banned the lion-and-sun standard under a rule that forbids the flying of political flags or banners inside stadiums during the World Cup.

The match against New Zealand takes place as Iran and the United States seek to finalize a deal to end the conflict that began on Feb. 28, when U.S. President Donald Trump launched Operation Epic Fury.

Mojgan Ramezani, 56, an Iranian American at a rally outside the stadium in Inglewood, California, which will host the match, said, “They’re holding hostage their own people.”

Pictures of athletes who allegedly died in custody ​after being arrested by the Iranian regime lined a nearby street corner during a rally organized by the local Iranian American community.

One of the protesters, 70-year-old Hassan Haddadi, said he was frustrated that there had been no regime change in Iran.

“We’re hoping to bring awareness to the Western world, to somehow do something beyond just condemning, to bring an end to this regime,” Haddadi said.

Players ‘Not Political People’

The Iranian team’s coach, Amir Ghalenoei, said he and his players were “not political people.”

The Iranian team captain, Mehdi Taremi, said they were at the World Cup to bring joy to all Iranians and the millions in the diaspora.

“People have different opinions, but we are here to unite people, and we will try to bring joy to all Iranians wherever they live,” Taremi said at a press conference on June 14.

“We are here to bring joy to Iranian people. We do not get involved in politics. We are here to play football.”

Last week, the U.S. Department of ‌Homeland Security announced that the Iranian team—who are based in Tijuana, Mexico—would be allowed to arrive in the United States on the day before their matches.

Los Angeles is home to the largest Iranian community outside Iran—it is sometimes dubbed “Tehrangeles”—and there are plans for a rally against the Tehran regime outside the stadium in Inglewood before the match.

People carry a giant Iranian flag during a protest in response to FIFA's ban on Iran's pre-revolutionary flag inside World Cup stadiums in Inglewood, Calif., on June 7, 2026. Benjamin Hanson/AP

During the initial group stage of the World Cup, 12 groups of four teams will each play three matches in a round-robin format for a chance to advance to the later stages of competition.

Iran is in Group G, along with New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt.

Belgium is ranked 10th in the world by FIFA, while Iran is ranked 20th, above Egypt (29th) and New Zealand (85th).

Iran is the favorite to beat New Zealand, whose team includes Tim Payne, a defender whose Instagram following went from 5,000 to 5.7 million after influencer Valen Scarsini encouraged people to make Payne famous.

All three of Iran’s group stage matches are taking place in the United States.

Iran plays Belgium on June 21, again in Los Angeles, and then travels to Seattle to face Egypt on June ​26.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 11:05

So, What Do We Know?

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist At Rabobank

A deal is struck and the parties are reportedly set to sign on Friday of this week. Markets are jubilant after an agreement was confirmed by US, Iranian and Pakistani sources, but not without first being threatened by Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon which prompted a telling-off by Donald Trump on Truth Social where he told everyone “don’t blow it”.

Brent crude is down more than 4% this morning to be dealing around $83.72 at time of writing and a rally in bonds late last week has carried over to this morning with Aussie and Kiwi sovereign curves both seeing notable bull steepening.

US equity futures portend the printing of a healthy green candle when markets open later today, but there’s still a lingering sense that we’re not out of the woods yet. Aside from the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah over the weekend, and the lesson of experience that the IRGC doesn’t need much convincing to return to fighting, we learned this morning that despite Donald Trump’s declaration that the strait is now open the strait will actually remain closed until the official signing occurs on Friday – ostensibly to provide time for mine clearing operations. Needless to say, a week is a long time in Middle East geopolitics.

Nevertheless, markets are rallying on the vibe right now but what is actually in the deal will be the critical points – and there is still plenty of fog of war surrounding terms. So, what do we know?

Firstly, the agreement is not really a ‘deal’ at all, or even a deal to have a deal, but rather a memorandum of understanding staking out a framework to discuss a deal over the next 60 days.

War is supposed to cease on all fronts – including Lebanon, Hormuz is supposed to open and the US blockade lifted within 30 days in a kind of oil-for-oil exchange that we have flagged here many times. Iranian sources are claiming that Hormuz transits will occur under Iranian auspices, whereas the US side is still saying no tolls. Axios reports comments from US sources that sanctions relief will follow the re-opening of Hormuz, but there seems to be disagreement over the release of frozen funds and Iranian sources are claiming reparations of some form up to $300bn in value would be payable. If true, that really would be the full enchilada of TACOs and would see the US agreeing to a set of terms that had it restart bombing only a few weeks ago. On the other hand, it could be the case that the terms are actually much more favorable to the US and that the Iranians are simply trying to save face.

#URGENT US Vice President Vance says $24B frozen funds figure 'doesn't appear anywhere' in text US discussed with Iranians, calls claim 'misrepresentation by hardliners'

— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) June 15, 2026

Crucially, there appear to be no guarantees on the nuclear issues aside from a promise from Iran not to seek a nuclear weapon and to engage in talks over the next 60 days. Given that the nuclear program was the entire casus belli in the first place, we still see plenty of scope for this to all fall in a heap. The US midterm elections are 81 days after the expiry of the 60 day negotiating period. Could we see a few more can-kick extensions over that time? Announcing the conclusion of the deal, Donald Trump posted to Truth Social “Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Start your engines indeed, because the race is now on to restock the global energy supply chain while we can.

So, at the risk of being a party pooper, could this be one of those instances of buy the rumor sell the fact? Perhaps there is no greater bear indicator than the fact that the New York Knicks just won the NBA playoffs. The last time they did that was in *checks notes* 1973, just before the Yom Kippur oil embargoes became the biggest energy shock in history up to that point. The Knicks basically top-ticked the market back then with one of the deepest bear markets of modern history (down more than 40% peak to trough) following their victory.

That brings us to SpaceX, where the largest IPO in history just raised $75 billion at a hefty valuation last week and minted another $2trillion market cap company after the stock rallied almost 20% in its first day of trading. His 42% ownership stake combined with other holdings now makes Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, a financial milestone event that feels a bit like the topping out of the Sears Tower as the world’s tallest building in – ahem – 1973.

Personal wealth milestones don’t have as tight a correlation with major market drawdowns as the Skyscraper Curse, but the logic follows a similar pattern: market exuberance causes asset prices to rise, minting a new cohort of billionaires, decabillionaires, centibillionaires or even trillionaires. Then reflexivity kicks in and the popular conception of whether or not it is moral for one person to hold so much wealth leads to policy changes to discourage it. Sentiment then erodes, discounted cash flows get discounted further, and eyewatering valuations start to look more dubious. That’s how we ended up with anti-trust laws in the USA, and how Australia is now seeing capital gains tax rules fiddled with to discourage real estate speculation. A cursory perusal of recent social media posts from prominent Democrats regarding Musk’s personal wealth is instructive in this regard.

That isn’t to say that a correction is imminent. Reversals take time, and a clear catalyst is yet to present itself. Perhaps it lies in the expectations of Fed rate tightening? Or perhaps in the repeated warnings of approaching tank bottom from oil market insiders, and what that might mean for the petrochemical complex, plastics, fertilizers and much of the rest of our hydrocarbon-based 21st century existence as we know it? While there is a sense this morning that a bullet has been dodged and that the “deal” renders the Hormuz black swan a shot duck, to labor the avian metaphor further we really can’t count our chickens until the ships resume transit, factories restore production, and the nuclear issue is settled.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 10:45

Drinking The Court-Packing Kool-Aid: Buttigieg Joins The Calls To Take Over Supreme Court

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg apparently got the message this week that he cannot hope to win the Democratic nomination without promising radical measures, including the packing of the Supreme Court. After denouncing the current Court as “rogue” for not ruling as the left has demanded, Buttigieg endorsed the plan of Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren to pack the Court to reverse adverse constitutional interpretations.

For years, the Supreme Court had a liberal majority that overturned dozens of long-standing cases. That was not viewed as the work of a rogue court. Yet, even as President Donald Trump attacks this Court for ruling repeatedly against him, liberals are now demanding court packing. As the party becomes more radicalized, any candidate expressing doubts over radical demands like court packing is unlikely to make it out of the primaries.

Accordingly, “Mayor Pete” is reaching for Court-Packing Kool-Aid.

In making his pitch to the Rainbow PUSH Coalition convention, Buttigieg knew that he had to offer some radical bona fides. He decided to offer up the Supreme Court:

“We have to do [something] with the Supreme Court, that is now a rogue Supreme Court. To see them eviscerate the Voting Rights Act is to see them reverse some of the most important progress this country ever made, wiping out Black political representation, but also wiping out part of what actually is great within the complex American story.”

That description is part of a campaign of disinformation about the Court’s recent decision to end racial gerrymandering. The Court reaffirmed that the Voting Rights Act would be used to prevent any intentional racial discrimination. It banned states (almost entirely Democratic states) from engaging in racial discrimination to guarantee election results based on the race of the candidates.

He then thrilled the crowd by promising to pack the Court to guarantee the results that he and they are demanding. Declaring that it is “time to think big,” Buttigieg explained:

“Nowhere in the Constitution does it say that there have to be nine Supreme Court justices. That one doesn’t even take a constitutional amendment. It just takes a readiness to set up a court that fits this country. We could have 13 seats matching the district structure of the federal judiciary, but also a process that makes it less partisan.”

Buttigieg appears to be referring to the circuit system, not the district court system.

What is most striking is that he promises to reverse decisions on issues like racial gerrymandering by packing the Court, but then says it will make the Court “less partisan.”

The whole point of adding four new justices selected by the Democrats is to create an instant majority to their liking and to reverse past rulings.

Years ago, I wrote an academic piece on the possible expansion of the Supreme Court, but there is a world of difference between that and a court-packing plan. Under my proposal, the court’s expansion would take almost two decades to ensure that no president could pack the court.

Various Democrats have been pledging to not only impeach Trump (and a long list of other figures), but to pack the Supreme Court as soon as they regain power.

James Carville declared, “If the Democrats win the presidency and both houses of Congress, I think on day one, they should expand the Supreme Court to 13. F— it. Eat our dust. Don’t run on it. Don’t talk about it. Just do it.”

This Nike School of Constitutional Law is catching on with a wide array of pundits and professors. Just do it.

Years ago, Harvard professor Michael Klarman laid out a radical agenda to change the system to guarantee Republicans “will never win another election.” However, he warned that “the Supreme Court could strike down everything I just described.” Therefore, the court must be packed in advance to allow these changes to occur.

Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder has put packing the Supreme Court front and center, explaining, “[We’re] talking about the acquisition and the use of power if there is a Democratic trifecta in 2028.”

At base is a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of the Court. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) not only renewed her previous call to pack the court but said the court was illegitimate for rendering decisions against “widely held public opinion.” Former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) said the court “defies the will of the people.” Reporter John Haltiwanger insisted that “the court is clearly not representative of the U.S. public. It’s supposed to be the people’s court.”

In reality, the court was never meant to be that. It was meant to be the Constitution’s court, designed to stand against everyone and everything except the Constitution. In a system designed to protect the minority, the court (like the Constitution) is counter-majoritarian in much of what it does.

With the Supreme Court removed as a barrier to the left’s radical agenda, Democrats could indeed fulfill the objectives laid out by figures like Klarman to ensure they never lose power again.

That will make the 2028 election the most consequential election for our constitutional history in decades. The outcome will most immediately decide the fate of an institution that has been a stabilizing force for centuries. Even though this Court has ruled against the Trump Administration on a variety of key issues, the left is still demanding that it either yield to all of their demands or face a hostile takeover.

On our 250th anniversary, these reckless and radical voices remind us that (as Benjamin Franklin warned us) this is our Republic if we can keep it.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 10:25

Key Events This Week: First Warsh FOMC, Iran Deal Signing, Retail Sales And More

After 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. It was announced on Sunday afternoon - Trump's birthday, shortly before futures opened for trading and ahead of today's Iran game in the World Cup - and the MoU will be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

According to statements carried by Iranian state-affiliated media, the agreement includes a phased lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the unfreezing of roughly $12bn in overseas assets, and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (after mine clearing) alongside the removal of the US naval blockade. The deal also sets out a 60-day negotiation window on a broader accord, including constraints around Iran’s nuclear programme, where Tehran is expected to commit to maintaining its current status and not pursuing nuclear weapons. The US hasn’t been so explicit and whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran. 

The other major story is the decision late on Friday from the US government to issue an export control directive forcing Anthropic to restrict access to its most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, released to great global acclaim last week, to US nationals only, citing undefined national security concerns. In practice, because it is operationally difficult to separate users by nationality, Anthropic opted to suspend access to these models entirely on a global basis. The move marks one of the first instances of the US applying export controls not just to AI hardware (e.g. semiconductors) but directly to frontier models themselves, reflecting a growing view of AI as a strategic, dual use asset.

Clearly the export control may only be temporary as the cited jailbreak risk is examined and rectified quickly. This is probably the most likely outcome. However, if it longer-term, and more strategic from the US government, it's not great news for US tech firms or for those assuming breakneck speed of AI adoption. US tech firms require a global marketplace to justify their huge investments so far. In addition, global enterprise would want to ensure any models they purchase are usable, especially for business-critical operations. You can't rely on something that could be switched off. So all eyes on what Anthropic and the US government agree as the next step.

Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week, with key policy decisions across the Fed, BoJ and BoE alongside important inflation and activity data.

The primary focus will be the United States and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which marks the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The leadership transition introduces a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around both policy signalling and communication style. While an immediate policy shift is unlikely, the meeting will be closely scrutinized for early indications of how Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s framework, particularly given his stated ambition for a broader “regime change”.

In terms of the statement, a modest upgrade to the labor market assessment appears likely, reflecting steady job growth and a broadly stable unemployment rate. More importantly, the guidance language could shift meaningfully. Warsh has been openly critical of heavy reliance on forward guidance, so the Committee may lean towards a more neutral, data-dependent formulation. This would effectively remove any residual easing bias and reopen the possibility of further tightening should inflation dynamics warrant it. Any such adjustment would be interpreted as a recalibration towards optionality rather than a firm directional signal.

Beyond the headline statement, attention will turn to the Summary of Economic Projections. The distribution of rate expectations may shift upwards, with 4 or 5 policymakers signalling the potential for hikes into 2026 and beyond. This would likely nudge the median path higher across the projection horizon and reinforce the idea that the Fed is not yet comfortable declaring victory on inflation. DB's economists note that Warsh may not submit dots which would reflect his views on forward guidance. Revisions to inflation forecasts, particularly for the outer years, will also be closely examined for evidence of more persistent price pressures. At the moment DB  economists expect core PCE for 2027 to be raised by a tenth to 2.3%.

However, the most revealing element of the meeting may be Warsh’s press conference. His prior remarks suggest he will likely place less emphasis on near-term data fluctuations and explicit forward guidance, instead favoring a broader narrative around structural forces such as productivity and technological change. While this could temper the immediate hawkish interpretation, markets may test whether this framing is sufficient to justify patience in the face of still-elevated inflation. Just as important will be any early signals on communication reform—whether through changes to the dot plot, adjustments to the SEP, or a broader rethink of how the Fed conveys uncertainty. So a fascinating meeting to look forward to.

In terms of US data, the focus will be on May retail sales due Wednesday, and our US economists expect a +0.5% MoM rise in the headline (same as in April). Industrial production is due today (DB forecast is a +0.1% MoM increase, down from +0.7% in April) and there will be several housing indicators out this week as well. US markets will be on holiday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day on Friday.

Outside the US, central bank activity remains heavy. In Europe, decisions are due from the Riksbank and a cluster of Thursday meetings including the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. In the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention focused on the vote split (expectations for 7-2) and any evolution in guidance against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation. Incoming UK data, particularly CPI (Wednesday), labour market indicators (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday), will provide important context for the policy outlook. Meanwhile, euro area attention will also be shaped by ongoing commentary from ECB officials and sentiment indicators such as the German ZEW survey (tomorrow).

Political developments will also be in focus, with the G7 leaders meeting early in the week (today through Wednesday) followed by the European Council summit (Thursday-Friday).

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow) stands out, with expectations for a further rate increase as part of its gradual normalization process. Japanese inflation data later in the week (Friday) will help gauge whether underlying price momentum continues to justify policy tightening. In China, their monthly activity data tomorrow covering industrial production and retail sales will provide an updated read on the growth trajectory, with expectations for a modest improvement after recent softness.

Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold (tomorrow), while New Zealand’s GDP release (Wednesday) will offer further insight into the strength of its economic recovery.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day snapshot of key events

Monday June 15

• Data: US June Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, May industrial production, manufacturing production, capacity utilisation, Germany May wholesale price index, Italy April trade balance, general government debt, Eurozone April industrial production, trade balance, Canada May housing starts, April manufacturing sales
• Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel, Pereira and Kocher speak
• Other: G7 leaders’ summit (through June 17)

Tuesday June 16

• Data: US May housing starts, building permits, import price index, export price index, June New York Fed services business activity, China May retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Germany June Zew survey, Eurozone June Zew survey, Canada May existing home sales, April international securities transactions
• Central banks: BoJ decision, RBA decision, ECB’s Lane, Sleijpen and Escriva speak
• Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Wednesday June 17

• Data: US May retail sales, pending home sales, April business inventories, UK May CPI, RPI, PPI, April house price index, Japan May trade balance, April core machine orders, New Zealand Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed decision, Riksbank decision, ECB’s Sleijpen speaks

Thursday June 18

• Data: US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May leading index, April total net TIC flows, initial jobless claims, UK April average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, May jobless claims change, Italy April current account balance, ECB April current account, Eurozone April construction output, Canada May industrial product price index, raw materials price index
• Central banks: BoE decision, SNB decision, Norges Bank decision, ECB’s Kocher, Nagel, Cipollone, Lane and Escriva speak
• Auctions: US 5-yr TIPS (reopening, $24bn)
• Other: European Council summit (through June 19)

Friday June 19

• Data: UK June GfK consumer confidence, May retail sales, public finances, Japan May national CPI, Germany May PPI, Canada April retail sales
• Central banks: ECB’s Lane, Escriva and Cipollone speak, BoJ minutes of the April meeting
• Other: US Juneteenth holiday

* * *

Looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the import prices report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Wednesday. The June FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, June 15 

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, May (consensus 13.2, last 19.6)
• 09:15 AM Industrial production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Manufacturing production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Capacity utilization, May (GS 76.1%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.1%): We estimate industrial production edged up by 0.1% in May, reflecting increases in auto and oil and gas production, but a decline in natural gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.1%.
• 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, June (consensus 37, last 37)

Tuesday, June 16 

• 08:30 AM Import price index, May (consensus +0.8%, last +1.9%); Export price index, May (consensus +0.6%, last +3.3%)
• 08:30 AM Housing starts, May (GS -1.5%, consensus -2.0%, last -2.8%) ; Building permits, May (consensus -0.2%, last +4.4%)

Wednesday, June 17 

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%);Core retail sales, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.2% in May (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a continued solid signal from alternative data but potential payback after several months of outsized increases. On an inflation-adjusted basis, we forecast a 0.3% increase in the core; the relevant deflator in the PCE price index likely declined 0.1% in May. We estimate nominal headline retail sales increased 0.4%, reflecting higher gasoline prices.
• 10:00 AM Pending home sales, May (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.4%)
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, June 16-17 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, at its June meeting, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and drop the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts. We expect the median dot to show no change to the funds rate in 2026, with three participants projecting a hike this year. We expect the median dot to still show two cuts eventually, most likely one in each of 2027 and 2028. We assume that Chairman Warsh will not submit dots in light of his past criticism of forward guidance, but we are not sure. The economic projections for 2026 are likely to show slightly lower GDP growth and unemployment, and much higher headline and core inflation, but we only expect a small increase in the inflation projections for 2027.

Thursday, June 18 

• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June (GS 5.0, consensus 10.0, last -0.4)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 13 (GS 225k, consensus 225k, last 229k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 6 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,795k)

Friday, June 19 

• Juneteenth National Independence Day. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also remain closed.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 10:00

Trump Threatens 100% Tariff On French Wines Over Digital Services Tax

Update (0810ET): France's President Emmanuel Macron said Monday he wanted to have a "respectful but firm discussion" with Trump.

"We will have a respectful but firm discussion," Macron told TF1 as he prepared to host Trump and other leaders at a G7 summit.

"Tariffs don't do anyone any good, especially tariffs between G7 countries," Macron said.

As Tom Ozimek reported earlier via The Epoch Times, U.S. President Donald Trump on June 15 threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on French wines and champagne unless France eliminates its digital services tax on large American technology companies.

Trump said he delivered the warning directly to French President Emmanuel Macron, demanding that Paris scrap its 3 percent levy on major U.S. tech firms or face steep duties on some of France’s best-known exports.

“I asked him not to charge American companies, and if they do, I have no choice but to charge a 100% tariff on all champagnes and all wines coming out of France,” Trump told the New York Post in an interview. “All [Macron] has to do is get rid of the sales tax, and he wouldn’t have that kind of pressure.”

Trump’s threat prompted concern from French exporters, who warned of further strain on an industry that depends heavily on overseas markets.

“This new threat is bad news for our industry, which relies heavily on exports,” French wine and spirits exporters association FEVS said.

The group called for “responsible behavior” and urged France and the United States to maintain balanced and constructive trade relations “in the interest of both economies.”

France’s digital services tax, introduced in 2019, imposes a 3 percent levy on revenue generated in France by large digital companies. The tax applies to firms with more than about $29 million in French revenue and roughly $870 million in global revenue.

The measure has long drawn criticism from Washington, with the United States saying that it disproportionately targets American technology companies.

Experts say that even a relatively low digital services tax (DST) rate can lead to high effective tax burdens because revenues, rather than profits, are taxed.

“Because DSTs tax revenues, not profits, a company with a 10 percent profit margin would face a 60 percent effective tax rate on digital services provided in France,” economist Cristina Enache of the Tax Foundation Europe wrote in an October 2025 note.

Harvesters fill a press with Chardonnay grapes at the Mailly-Champagne cooperative during the 2025 Champagne harvest on August 26, 2025. Francois Nascimbeni/AFP via Getty Images

Enache described the French tax as discriminatory and cited research noting that France’s DST is ill-conceived because, while it purports to target big digital platforms, the cost mostly falls on consumers.

“The French DST, which functions like a tariff on certain services, is designed to be discriminatory,” Enache wrote. “It targets industries largely dominated by US companies, and the discrimination would be even greater if the revenue threshold is increased.”

Digital Tax Dispute

The United States has repeatedly challenged digital services taxes adopted by France and other countries. During Trump’s first term, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched a series of Section 301 investigations into digital taxes that Washington viewed as discriminatory toward American companies.

“President Trump is concerned that many of our trading partners are adopting tax schemes designed to unfairly target our companies,” then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a June 2020 statement. “We are prepared to take all appropriate action to defend our businesses and workers against any such discrimination.”

Trump has previously threatened tariffs on French alcohol imports. In January, he said he would impose a 200 percent levy on French wines and champagne if France declined to participate in the U.S.-led Board of Peace initiative for Gaza. In March 2025, he threatened a 200 percent tariff on alcohol imports from France and other European Union countries after Brussels announced plans to impose a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey.

The stakes are significant for France’s wine industry. Exports of French wines and spirits to the United States account for roughly one-quarter of the sector’s global sales, valued at about $4.4 billion annually, per FEVS data for 2024.

Wine and spirits imported from the European Union currently face a 15 percent U.S. tariff, a rate French officials have been lobbying to reduce since Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a U.S.–EU trade agreement in Scotland last summer.

Last spring, amid an intensifying trade dispute between the United States and the EU, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Trump’s tariff threats were intended to restore balance and fairness between trading partners.

“The EU has just so many years treated us so harshly, they just can’t stop,” Lutnick told Bloomberg TV in a March 2025 interview. “Their tariffs are way up here, and our tariffs are down here. How about: Relax. Let us balance it. We are your largest and most important trading partner. Treat us with respect and let’s get a little balance. Trump is out there saying: balance, balance, balance.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:50

Trump Threatens 100% Tariff On French Wines Over Digital Services Tax

Update (0810ET): France's President Emmanuel Macron said Monday he wanted to have a "respectful but firm discussion" with Trump.

"We will have a respectful but firm discussion," Macron told TF1 as he prepared to host Trump and other leaders at a G7 summit.

"Tariffs don't do anyone any good, especially tariffs between G7 countries," Macron said.

As Tom Ozimek reported earlier via The Epoch Times, U.S. President Donald Trump on June 15 threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on French wines and champagne unless France eliminates its digital services tax on large American technology companies.

Trump said he delivered the warning directly to French President Emmanuel Macron, demanding that Paris scrap its 3 percent levy on major U.S. tech firms or face steep duties on some of France’s best-known exports.

“I asked him not to charge American companies, and if they do, I have no choice but to charge a 100% tariff on all champagnes and all wines coming out of France,” Trump told the New York Post in an interview. “All [Macron] has to do is get rid of the sales tax, and he wouldn’t have that kind of pressure.”

Trump’s threat prompted concern from French exporters, who warned of further strain on an industry that depends heavily on overseas markets.

“This new threat is bad news for our industry, which relies heavily on exports,” French wine and spirits exporters association FEVS said.

The group called for “responsible behavior” and urged France and the United States to maintain balanced and constructive trade relations “in the interest of both economies.”

France’s digital services tax, introduced in 2019, imposes a 3 percent levy on revenue generated in France by large digital companies. The tax applies to firms with more than about $29 million in French revenue and roughly $870 million in global revenue.

The measure has long drawn criticism from Washington, with the United States saying that it disproportionately targets American technology companies.

Experts say that even a relatively low digital services tax (DST) rate can lead to high effective tax burdens because revenues, rather than profits, are taxed.

“Because DSTs tax revenues, not profits, a company with a 10 percent profit margin would face a 60 percent effective tax rate on digital services provided in France,” economist Cristina Enache of the Tax Foundation Europe wrote in an October 2025 note.

Harvesters fill a press with Chardonnay grapes at the Mailly-Champagne cooperative during the 2025 Champagne harvest on August 26, 2025. Francois Nascimbeni/AFP via Getty Images

Enache described the French tax as discriminatory and cited research noting that France’s DST is ill-conceived because, while it purports to target big digital platforms, the cost mostly falls on consumers.

“The French DST, which functions like a tariff on certain services, is designed to be discriminatory,” Enache wrote. “It targets industries largely dominated by US companies, and the discrimination would be even greater if the revenue threshold is increased.”

Digital Tax Dispute

The United States has repeatedly challenged digital services taxes adopted by France and other countries. During Trump’s first term, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched a series of Section 301 investigations into digital taxes that Washington viewed as discriminatory toward American companies.

“President Trump is concerned that many of our trading partners are adopting tax schemes designed to unfairly target our companies,” then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a June 2020 statement. “We are prepared to take all appropriate action to defend our businesses and workers against any such discrimination.”

Trump has previously threatened tariffs on French alcohol imports. In January, he said he would impose a 200 percent levy on French wines and champagne if France declined to participate in the U.S.-led Board of Peace initiative for Gaza. In March 2025, he threatened a 200 percent tariff on alcohol imports from France and other European Union countries after Brussels announced plans to impose a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey.

The stakes are significant for France’s wine industry. Exports of French wines and spirits to the United States account for roughly one-quarter of the sector’s global sales, valued at about $4.4 billion annually, per FEVS data for 2024.

Wine and spirits imported from the European Union currently face a 15 percent U.S. tariff, a rate French officials have been lobbying to reduce since Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a U.S.–EU trade agreement in Scotland last summer.

Last spring, amid an intensifying trade dispute between the United States and the EU, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Trump’s tariff threats were intended to restore balance and fairness between trading partners.

“The EU has just so many years treated us so harshly, they just can’t stop,” Lutnick told Bloomberg TV in a March 2025 interview. “Their tariffs are way up here, and our tariffs are down here. How about: Relax. Let us balance it. We are your largest and most important trading partner. Treat us with respect and let’s get a little balance. Trump is out there saying: balance, balance, balance.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:50

 

 

Since it’s commencement time, I wanted to share a few thoughts on serendipity.

I have been working in finance since 1996 — three decades. My views on nearly everything have evolved over that time: Indexing, crowd behavior, trading, media, hedge funds, fixed income, private equity, technology, success, and money.

The biggest belief shift I have made over that time is on the subject of “Luck.”

I downplayed the role of serendipity in my youth, but I have since come to recognize it as far weightier and more meaningful than I realized. Why? Because we all want to live in an orderly world governed by cause and effect. We need to believe that our efforts, intelligence, and skills will lead to good outcomes.

“Hard work is its own reward” blah, blah, blah.

But the simple truth is that random events can and do lead to unanticipated outcomes that drive much of what occurs. We underestimate fortune, randomness, and chance at our own peril.

I have been hosting the Masters in Business podcast for 12 years now and have interviewed 650 notable guests, including many Nobel laureates, CEOs, billionaires, fund managers, venture capitalists, private equity investors, and assorted celebrities. The first time a billionaire told me how much luck was involved in their success, I dismissed it as a case of “false humility.” But after the 5th and then 10th mention of luck by wildly differing guests, I could no longer dismiss this so easily.

My interviews with Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital, and famed for his “Chairman’s Memos” were instructive.1 The first time he mentioned his good fortune, I pushed back, asking, “What about intelligence, hard work, and perseverance?”

His answer:

“Everybody in my MBA class at the University of Chicago was very smart and very hard working. But hard work and intelligence are mere table stakes. Not everybody has fortune smile on them; not everybody gets lucky.”

That very honest and sincere answer was persuasive; it made me realize I might be underestimating the role of luck in my own career.

As I thought about it, I recalled numerous examples from my own life.

• Calling the bottom in March 2009 was as much a result of the school calendar — my wife is a teacher — as anything else. We were away on vacation when the market crossed my (infamous) target of “Dow 6,800” in March 2009. When we returned home that Sunday, I had already had time to quietly digest this while away from the markets. The timing of my Sunday evening “Cover Your Shorts and Go Long” missive was pure calendar serendipity; Henry Blodget invited my to come on TV the next day to repeat the message, and that was literally the day of the lows.2 My reward was 100s of people asking me to manage 100s of millions of their dollars.

• At a conference in Coronado Island, I sat at the pool next to a young kid named Josh Brown. We started to chat, and it was clear to me he was something special, overlooked by Wall Street. Bringing him from the Sell Side to the Buy Side was an easy decision – precipitated by the random choice of which poolside lounge chair I picked.

• Launching the firm, Ritholtz Wealth Management, in September 2013 was an inevitable result of 1) my frustration in working for other people and 2) my frustration with how Wall Street managed client monies. Oh, and launching 6 months after a new bull market started – signified by every major index leaping above their prior 2000-13 highs – as one of the best 15-year periods (and counting) of returns (2010-2025) was ramping up? Pure chance.

There were other somewhat random events that led to good outcomes:

-At my High School Senior Prom, the “last song” of the night was announced. I turned to the girl sitting behind me and asked her if she wanted to dance — and to my surprise she said “Yes.” That “girl” has been my wife for the past 34 years…

-In the summer of 2003, I was invited to beta test Six Apart’s “Typepad” – this new thingie called a “blog.” I moved my publishing from Geocities to Typepad and named it after William Goldman’s book, “The Big Picture.” That was 44,000 posts ago. But for someone noticing my real-time notes about what happened on September 11th, this would not have happened.

-My mom was a real estate agent; that’s how and why I began tracking various housing data points in the 2000s. (Most of Wall Street did not follow RRE closely).  But for that, I would not have noticed that the 2000s economy was kinda backwards – it was being driven by ultra-low rates driven and real estate, not true economic growth.

-My real time coverage of the great financial crisis was eventually turned into the book “Bailout Nation,” published in 2009. That led to a column on Personal Finance and Policy for the Washington Post beginning in 2011. From that, came a Bloomberg View column, and then in the spring of 2014, I began a new project for Bloomberg Radio: Masters in Business was Bloomberg’s first podcast.

That is a brief history of my own good fortune. When I see it in print, it’s clear to me that hard work, skill, perseverance, persistence, insight, creativity, etc., are all the minimum costs just to enter the arena. Table stakes, so to speak. Once you’re there, you still need to get lucky.

There are lots of aphorisms in the good fortune space that I find contradictory.

“Luck is where preparation meets opportunity.”

That assumes opportunity comes your way, and that is not always the case.

“You make your own luck.”

I like Ed Smith’s response3 to this:

“Making your own luck is self-contradictory. The definition of luck is something outside your control. So if you are “making your own luck,” whatever you’re doing intentionally clearly does not fall into the category of luck.”

“Increase your surface area for luck.” 4

I guess you can do more things that might have serendipitous outcomes, but isn’t that just saying “work hard, be persistent, and persevere?” It is, as Smith noted, not in the category of luck.

I have no insight into how to have the Fates smile upon you. But I can think of thousands of things you can do that would be helpful to your career.

Here are my top 10 things that helped me “get lucky” professionally:

1. Curiosity: Be genuinely interested in many things, including those that may not be related to your career; Be multi-talented;

2. Effort: Work hard! If possible, harder than everybody else. Sports coaches know that hard work beats talent (almost all of the time).

3. Mastery: Find something you really like and spend lots of time and effort mastering it. Becoming excellent at a single thing often spills over to other areas.

4. Auto-Didact: Read voraciously. Build a library, learn from the masters.

5. Forward-looking: Your academic background matters less and less the longer you are out of school. Stop stressing about it.

6. Add Value: Create something of value that others want — and are even willing to pay for;

7. Network: Meet as many people in your field as you can. Learn from them, and when possible, be genuinely helpful.

8. Specialize: Develop a specialty. Hone that skillset/knowledge until it is razor sharp;

9. Be Prepared: “Once in a lifetime” opportunities come along more frequently than you imagine; Be prepared for when those opportunities present themselves;

10. Serendipity: Be lucky.

 

This is what has worked for me. I hope these ideas will work for you . . .

 

 

Footnotes:

1. “Getting Lucky” by Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital, Jan 16, 2014.

2. “When Barry Ritholtz Talks, People Listen,” By Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics, March 11, 2009

3. “In Defence of Luck” by Ed Smith, Four Seasons Hotels and Resorts, March 12, 2014

4. “How to increase your surface area for luck” Cate Hall, July 23, 2025

 

The post Serendipity: The Role of Luck in Your Life and Career appeared first on The Big Picture.

US Futures, Global Stocks Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal

Global markets soared in a risk-on rally following the announcement of a US-Iran deal Sunday night. Stocks and bonds rallied while oil tumbled to a three-month low after the US and Iran said they have reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the war. This will provide a 60-day window for negotiation. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 2.1%, while those for the S&P 500 rose 1.3%. In the pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA (+2.1%), META (+2.0%) and MSFT (+1.7%). European stocks climbed 0.7% to shatter a pre-war record high while Asian stocks were similarly buoyant. Bond yields are 2-5bp lower led by the belly of the curve and the 10Y trading around 4.4%. The USD is lower. Brent fell to around $83 a barrel and WTI slid below $80 for the first time since the start of the war. Gold and Bitcoin gained strongly, while the dollar lost ground against all major currencies. European bonds outperformed global peers. Metals are higher led by gold (2.8%) and silver (+3.9%). US economic data calendar includes June Empire manufacturing (8:30am), May industrial production (9:15am) and June NAHB housing market index (10am)

In premarket trading, miners, cruise-line operators and airlines gain, while energy stocks fall, on the US-Iran deal. Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Amazon +2.4%, Nvidia +2%, Alphabet +1.8%, Meta +1.5%, Microsoft +1.5%, Tesla +1.5%, Apple +0.7%)

• Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) is up 6.1% after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the defense technology company to buy from hold on revenue upside from defense demand.
• Old Dominion (ODFL) falls 1.1% after Citi analyst Ariel Rosa cut the recommendation to sell from neutral, writing that optimism about the trucking industry seems to be reflected in the valuations of sector players.
• Roku Inc. (ROKU) shares rise 2.5% after Fox Corp. agreed to buy the company for $160 per share in cash and stock. Fox (FOXA) shares fall 13%
• SpaceX (SPCX) jumps 6% after its blockbuster debut Friday vaulted it into the ranks of the world’s most valuable public companies.

In other weekend news, the US government has ordered Anthropic to disable access to its most advanced AI platforms for all foreign nationals after discovering it’s possible to “jailbreak” the Fable 5 AI model. 

The agreement between Washington and Tehran signals an end a three-month conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and upended financial markets. A pickup in energy flows would also help unwind the premium embedded in crude prices, offering comfort to policymakers battling inflation.

“Risk appetite is back on, but the issue is to know whether the Strait fully reopens,” said Christopher Dembik, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management. “Trump doesn’t have a great track record of lasting deals in the Middle East, so there’s a risk of tensions spiking back during the summer.”

Investors are awaiting details of the US-Iran agreement ahead of a formal signing scheduled for Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen after Friday’s signing of the deal, President Donald Trump said on social media. The event would then trigger the start of 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump told the New York Times that if an agreement isn’t reached on nuclear, he could restart military attacks. For its part, Iran will allow free transit through the waterway for only 60 days, Fars news agency reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

“It’s not a permanent solution, so a significant risk premium will likely be priced into markets,” said George Moran, European macro strategist at RBC. “But, if oil stays around $80-85, it certainly takes a good amount of pressure off central bankers’ shoulders.”

Investors bet that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely help ease inflation pressures and reinforce expecations for lower interest rates. Swaps traders are pricing about a 75% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by December, down from about 80% on Friday.

The agreement sees some hedge funds reopening pre-war playbooks, while some market participants caution the economic fallout from the conflict remains unresolved. Reactions in other assets include Bitcoin rallying to its highest level in nearly two weeks, while WTI crude oil slumped around 5%, although considerable challenges remain to relieving a profound global crunch. Hormuz trade will take months to return to normal. 

Turning back to the market, the US stock market is poised to see a surge in new equity issuance, with JPMorgan estimating share sales will add roughly $1.5 trillion of stock to the market over the next two years. It could herald a seismic shift, compared to buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing $12 trillion worth of stock over 20 years.

Meanwhile, with everyone flooding back into risk, the cost to fund US equity positions is jumping unexpectedly, due to the combination of the AI-driven stock rally, the massive growth of leveraged ETFs and SpaceX’s $75 billion listing. The financing spreads embedded in S&P 500 Index futures have opened up the biggest gap to Treasury financing rates since late 2024. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gains are led by autos, industrials and construction stocks, though the benchmark has pared its rise. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

• Banca Generali climbs as much as 9.5% to a new record after Jefferies upgraded the Italian private bank to buy, based on a turn in flows and better visibility
• IQE shares rise as much as 20% after the semiconductor company announced a multiyear agreement to supply indium phosphide wafers to Tower Semiconductor
• Técnicas Reunidas rises as much as 10% after the Spanish company said it has been awarded two engineering, procurement and construction contracts for upstream facilities to handle oil field production in the Middle East
• Belimo shares advance as much as 9.2% to the highest since July 2025 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the company to overweight, saying much of the company’s revenue growth in coming three years will come from data centers
• Corbion shares rise as much as 8.9% to their highest since February 2025 after the Dutch company got an upgrade to buy at Berenberg, which cited higher fish oil prices and the potential for further consolidation in the food ingredients sector
• Energy and defense stocks are among those underperforming as European stocks rise to a new record, with most sectors trading higher after the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
• Kesko falls as much as 11% after the Finnish retailer said it would buy building materials distributor Dahl’s business in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark from Saint-Gobain for €1.2 billion excluding debt. Kesko will sell new shares as part of the financing
• Telia falls as much as 4%, the most since January, after being downgraded to sell from hold at Berenberg, which said expectations of stronger growth are already reflected in the price
• Vistry shares fall as much as 5.6% to the lowest since 1999 after analysts said the homebuilder is cutting prices more aggressively than peers and faces a greater impact from rising build costs
• Luceco slides as much as 12%, retreating from the 2022-high hit at the end of last week, after the maker of electrical products said CEO John Hornby is retiring
• Shares in AJ Bell, DWS and Aberdeen slip after Goldman Sachs downgrades the three investment firms, arguing that recent rallies leave limited upside at a time when the sector faces increased competition and a continued shift toward passive investment
• UCB drops as much as 4.3% after Barclays downgraded the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing limited upside for the Belgian biopharmaceutical company’s shares over the next 12 months

Asian stocks advanced after the US and Iran announced an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over energy-supply disruptions that have driven up oil prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 3.2%, on track for its biggest two-day rally since March 2022. Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared to a record high, while South Korea’s Kospi and the Philippine index gained more than 5%. Most other regional markets were in the green. The renewed flow of energy under the peace deal is expected to lower inflationary pressures ahead of interest rate decisions this week from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The threat of tighter monetary policy has clouded the outlook for growth following the artificial intelligence boom of the past few years. Among key factors being watched locally, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level since 1995 in its decision due Tuesday. Sectors to Watch

• Chinese electric truck and battery maker stocks rise after the government announced a plan to scale up new‑energy heavy-duty trucks, targeting 40% market penetration.
• Chinese chip stocks advance as risk appetite improves, with sentiment further boosted by a report that ByteDance is in talks with China’s Iluvatar CoreX to buy AI chips.
• Asian gold-related stocks follow precious metal prices higher after the US and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
• Asian energy shares fall, tracking a slump in oil, after the US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Airline stocks rise.
• InnoScience Suzhou Technology’s shares jump as much as 12% in Hong Kong after China’s top court backs the company’s case and blocks Infineon Technologies from selling gallium nitride products in the country.
• Chinese brokerage stocks rise as investors rotate into cyclicals on improved sentiment from Iran peace deal and earnings outlook.
• Japanese space industry stocks plunged after SpaceX surged on its first day of trading in the US Friday.

In rates, treasuries hold opening gap higher, with futures just off session highs in early US session and front-end yields 4bp-5bp lower. Price action is driven by slide in oil prices after the US and Iran reached agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz. Fed rate-hike expectations shift further into the future, with a 25bp move fully priced in by March. Treasury yield curve steepens as front-end tenors outperform, widening 2s10s spread by about 1bp, 5s30s by 2.5bp; 10-year is around 4.44% vs session low 4.418% reached in Asia session, slightly lagging bunds and gilts in the sector.  Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Tuesday and $24 billion 5-year TIPS reopening Thursday. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings so far; dealers forecast about $25 billion this week, concentrated ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

In commodities, Brent drops to about $83/barrel and WTI is below $81, down 5% to the lowest since the start of the Iran war. Gold prices are also rising above $4,300/oz on reduced rate-hike bets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is off its lows but still down against most major currencies.

US economic data calendar includes June Empire manufacturing (8:30am), May industrial production (9:15am) and June NAHB housing market index (10am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• The US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, setting the stage for 60 days of negotiations on the fate of Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran will allow free Hormuz transit during that period under the pact. Both sides will meet in Switzerland on Friday to sign a deal. No text of the accord has been released. BBG
• The stock market is starting to expand again after years of shrinking — and potentially at a scale not seen since the dot-com era. For the better part of two decades, a defining feature of the US stock market has been scarcity. Year after year, shares disappeared from public hands, with buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing nearly $12 trillion worth. BBG
• Treasuries climbed across the curve as investors dialed back expectations for inflation and Fed rate hikes. The reported deal may help alleviate pressure on Kevin Warsh before this week’s policy meeting. BBG
• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that high energy prices are starting to feed through to other parts of the economy. Lagarde said the ECB will take measures if they start to feel second-round effects, such as wage increases, and are looking at underlying inflation. BBG
• Prices are likely to stay elevated for longer even if the war in Iran were to end soon, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk. BBG
• The UK announced a full ban on under-16s using social media from early next year in one of the strictest online crackdowns in the democratic world. BBG
• Russia’s ballistic-missile attacks against Ukraine have grown in ferocity and magnitude in recent weeks because Russian military planners are exploiting one of Ukraine’s greatest weaknesses: The Ukrainian military does not have enough Patriot missile interceptors to keep up with the barrages. NYT
• President Donald Trump has said he will hit France’s wine industry with a 100% tariff on exports to the U.S. if it does not scrap its digital services tax on U.S. technology companies. The warning comes ahead of this week’s G7 meeting in Évian-les-Bains, France. CNBC
• South Korea's stock market is approaching a milestone of potentially being considered for MSCI Inc.'s developed-market status after surging more than 90% this year. Most investors expect MSCI to keep Korea in the emerging-market camp for now, but believe it's a matter of time before Korea is classified as a developed market. BBG
• JPM Market Intel team: "We flipped to Tactically Bullish from the previous cautious stance because a potential US–Iran agreement could catalyze a broad risk-on impulse across equities, supported by strong fundamentals. That said, the historical pattern suggests that “everything rally” can fade into concentrated leadership following the initial impulse"
• Volatile market rotations during the past week continued to follow the pattern of the sharpest Momentum rallies in recent decades. Before the sell-off that started two weeks ago, a narrow-breadth Momentum rally had driven the sharpest two-month S&P 500 return since 1971, when scaled relative to volatility. Following similarly sharp rallies in the past, the Momentum factor has usually struggled during the subsequent few months. In addition to the historical precedent, the current market characteristics of elevated trading leverage, still-narrow market breadth, and uncertainty about both the macro outlook and the AI build-out suggest volatility will persist. Goldman

Weekend Iran War Updates

• Over the weekend, the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran's frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan's PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
• A source told Fars that the text of the MoU underwent changes that have definitely and explicitly emphasised the issue of exercising Iranian-Oman sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It is now written that the future of the administration of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz will be "determined" by Iran and Oman. Furthermore, the change now writes that Iran will only accept ships for 60 days of free passage. That is, the US has accepted the principle of receiving fees and has only taken a 60-day discount from Iran. But after these 60 days, Iran intends to benefit from the financial revenues generated by the traffic. 
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz said "we oppose the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon... have made it clear to US President Trump". If Iran attacks Israel because of events in Lebanon, "we will strike it with full force and make sure it clearly understands the gap in capabilities." 
• Israel's Finance Minister said that "the agreement is bad for the entire world. We will have to continue the campaign in creative ways." 
• Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said US President Trump's agreement does not bind us in any way. 
• US and Iran to hold preparatory talks in Doha before deal signing, AFP reported citing a diplomat. 
• UKMTO receives report of an incident 14 Nautical Miles south of Yemen coast.
• US President Trump posted on Sunday, "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"
• US President Trump said in a New York Times phone interview that he reached a deal, despite objections from Israeli PM Netanyahu, whom he described as "very difficult", while Trump added the US is to resume Iran strikes if it can't reach a nuclear accord. Trump also stated that the deal is to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is permanently toll-free and that the MoU suspends tolls in the Strait for 60 days.
• Pakistan's PM Sharif said, following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached, with the official signing ceremony to take place on Friday, 19th June in Switzerland. Sharif also stated that both sides have declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and that with an agreement now in place, the mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week.
• Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the text of the memorandum of understanding has been finalised and an official signing of the MoU take place on Friday in Switzerland, while negotiations for a final deal will be held for a period of 60 days and they will take their own measures if they witness breaches from the other side. Gharibabadi said the MoU text will be published after official signing, but does not mean trust in the enemy, as well as noted that among the topics to be discussed in the 60-day negotiations are ending sanctions, mechanisms for Iran's reconstruction, and establishing mechanisms to monitor all parties' commitments.
• Iran's Foreign Ministry said an immediate and permanent end to the war and military operations on all fronts is effective Sunday night, while it added that talks are contingent on the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions.
• Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran. 
• US official denied Iran's claim of a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, according to Axios' Ravid.
• Iran's chief negotiator/Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement, while US VP Vance is reported to sign on behalf of Washington, according to NYT. It was also reported by Axios that US VP Vance will meet with Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf in Geneva on Friday to sign the US-Iran agreement.
• Mehr News reported continued violations of the ceasefire, stating that Nabatiyeh and Kafrmanah in southern Lebanon were targeted by Israeli artillery shelling.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rallied following the announcement that the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end the hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal, which is scheduled to be signed on Friday, immediately ends the US naval blockade against Iran and provides time for negotiations towards a final deal to be held for a period of 60 days. However, there are some differing views between the sides regarding the release of funds, with Iran claiming a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, which a US official pushed back on, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, while President Trump warned that the US would resume Iran strikes if it can't reach a nuclear accord. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors, with notable strength seen in gold miners, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum owing to the reaction in underlying commodities to the deal to extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz. Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh record high above the 69,000 level with tech, manufacturing and heavy industry stocks boosted amid the lower oil prices and peace agreement. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp tracked the gains of regional peers as the PBoC continued to boost its daily liquidity efforts, and with the gains led by mining and tech, while Chinese airlines soared and oil majors suffered from the drop in oil prices.

Top Asian News

• Fitch affirms China at "A"; outlook stable.
• China issued guidelines on classifying and grading financial information data.
• China is setting up for a commercial launch of a cross-border digital currency platform that would be backed by the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to reduce reliance on the dollar and to draw Beijing closer to its Belt and Road trading partners, according to FT.
• China set out a plan to scale up new-energy heavy-duty trucks and targets 40% market penetration and a fleet of more than 1.6mln vehicles by 2030.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) are rallying after the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, with the STOXX 600 now reaching a new ATH. Details are yet to be confirmed, but it suggests Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US will lift the naval blockade, waive sanctions on Iranian oil and partially release Iran's frozen assets. If there is no breakdown of the deal, the MoU is to be officially signed on Friday in Geneva. Sectors are broadly higher. Cyclicals that have suffered from the closure of Hormuz are the clear outperformers (Autos +3.3%, Construction +2.7%, Travel & Leisure +2.4%). Energy (-3.1%) is the clear underperformer, while Utilities (-1.0%) and Telecoms (-1.1%) also show modest losses.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer is set to backtrack on electric vehicle targets by reducing the all-electric cap from 80% to 50% by the end of the decade amid fears of job losses, according to FT.
• UK PM Starmer confirmed that the Government is to ban social media for all under 16s.

FX

• G10s mostly firmer against the Buck as energy returns to March levels on the US and Iran’s interim agreement. Antipodeans and CHF lead, while USD/JPY briefly ventured below 160.
• DXY -0.3%, is pressured as the risk environment is bolstered by the US-Iran interim deal (see commodities for more details). Fed tightening bets have eased overnight with markets assigning a c. 60% probability of a 25bps hike by year-end. Domestic newsflow light ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Chair on Wednesday. DXY marked a session trough just below its 21DMA of 99.41.
• EUR is firmer against both the Sterling and Buck as it reacts to the softer energy complex. Some ECB speakers this morning, none of which did much to spur a reaction in the currency, as price action remains dependent on geopolitical developments. A number of speakers are due to provide remarks throughout the week, which could provide hints as to whether further tightening is warranted, but with constructive updates this weekend, the chances are slimmer.
• GBP firms, but to a lesser extent than EUR (EUR/GBP +0.2%) with the Makerfield by-election potentially deciding the next UK Prime Minister, and the BoE meeting on Thursday, likely to see the MPC opt to stand pat on rates in a expected 7-2 vote split. On the former, Burnham was busy on the wires over the weekend. He said he would not touch the state pension triple lock, and there were also further reports suggesting Home Secretary Mahmood was an option for Chancellor. GBP/USD +0.2% with 1.34 vulnerable to the downside. EUR/GBP looks to test 0.8650, where the rally stalled overnight. Upside risks to the cross should UK Political uncertainty continue, and an unconvincing BoE potentially highlight vulnerable EUR-UK differentials.
• CHF is the best performer after the nation voted to reject a proposal to cap its population at 10mln, avoiding issues with the EU (USD/CHF -0.4%). NOK is the worst G10 performer with the popular Middle East conflict trade NOK/SEK continuing to unwind (NOK/SEK -0.9%).

Fixed Income

• Global fixed benchmarks rise as the US and Iran agree to a framework peace deal, which has led to continued and sustained pressure in the crude complex. In brief, the US and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement; the US will lift its naval blockade, and Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, a full text has not yet been released, which has stemmed some uncertainty on a few key points.
• USTs (+9 ticks) are currently off the overnight highs and continued the downward bias throughout the European morning (109-24+ to 111-00 range). Action which has been facilitated by the easing of inflationary implications associated with lower energy prices. From a yield perspective, there is a clear bull steepening. The US 2yr (4.03%) is eyeing the round 4.00% mark but still remains well above the levels seen pre-Iran war (3.47%). The path yields take will be subject to: a) developments heading into Friday’s signing, b) the signing itself, c) the time it takes for stockpiles to be rebuilt. Finally, on Fed pricing, markets now assign a 65% chance of a hike by Dec’26 (vs the prev. fully priced by year-end).
• Bunds (+46 ticks) and Gilts (+46 ticks) both gain, thanks to the positive geopolitical updates; the latter outperforming a touch given the UK’s high reliance on external energy. This also comes ahead of the BoE policy decision this Thursday, where rates are expected to remain on hold – the latest geopolitical updates will only further cement that decision.

Commodities

• Over the weekend,the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran's frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan's PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, comments by Israeli Defence Minister Katz suggest Israel will not back out of Lebanon, stating that Israel opposes the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon. Additional comments by Israeli Finance Minister stating the US-Iran agreement is harmful to Israel and that they will have to continue their campaign in creative ways.
• Crude futures gapped lower at the open and have held onto earlier losses. WTI Jul'26 briefly dipped below USD 80/bbl (USD 79.70-82.42/bbl) while Brent Aug'26 trades at the lower end of its USD 82.67-85.93/bbl range.
• Spot gold has benefited from the weekend newsflow, as markets pare back rate hike bets. Markets now assign a c. 60% probability of a hike by December. Spot gold regained the USD 4300/oz handle, currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4281-4346/oz range.
• 3M LME Copper gains amid the constructive risk tone, gapping higher and oscillating in a USD 13.76k-13.87k/t range.

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on French wine over digital tax and demands France axes 3% tech levy or face a trade war, according to NYP.
• Indian Trade Official said USTR Greer to visit India on June 23-24th with the focus on final revisions to interim agreement.

Central Bank

• ECB's Kazimir said it is increasingly evident that monetary policy has more work to do and is not comfortable with outlook for core inflation above 2% even with more tightening. Even with the US-Iran peace framework, damage in the Middle East cannot be undone overnight and is leaning towards frontloading work that needs to be done, but need to be agile and responsive to incoming information.
• ECB's Nagel said the ECB is keeping all options open for July meeting and that the ECB is no longer dealing with short-term supply shock. Can't exclude second-round effects from energy. ECB policy settings are still broadly neutral but there is no relief in sight for the foreseeable future.
• ECB's Kazaks said the ECB can move gradually but is ready to act if needed. To add, Kazaks still see upside risks to inflation.

Ukraine updates

• Ukraine targeted a Russian chemical plant and fuel depot in strikes. It was separately reported that three people were killed and another three were injured in Russia's city of Tula following a drone attack, while a Ukrainian attack damaged two bridges in the Russian-held Kherson region.
• Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was reconnected to the grid after repairs were carried out under an IAEA-brokered local ceasefire.
• UK forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Channel on Sunday in a raid on Russia’s shadow fleet.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Jun Empire Manufacturing, est. 13.5, prior 19.6
• 9:15 am: May Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
• 9:15 am: May Capacity Utilization, est. 76.2%, prior 76.1%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope you all had a good weekend. It was the school fete, and my kids ran what they felt was a very successful homemade lemonade and orangeade stand. The kids and my wife were saying it made so much money they could set up their own business. Without wanting to be a party pooper I had to remind them that I saw the costs on my bank statement. A few hundred oranges and lemons, lots of soda water, other ingredients, an industrial vat to mix it, a few huge glass bottles with taps to dispense them and then all the cups. Oh, and the gazebo, and no ground rent so far. So if anyone wants to invest in this bunch of well-meaning dreamers, please feel free to take me out of my stake. Although if the IPO market stays this buoyant maybe I'll just hold on and float it in a few weeks.

The fizz in staying in markets this morning as after 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. It was announced at around 10:30pm UK last night and the MoU will be signed in Switzerland on Friday. According to statements carried by Iranian state-affiliated media, the agreement includes a phased lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the unfreezing of roughly $12bn in overseas assets, and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (after mine clearing) alongside the removal of the US naval blockade. The deal also sets out a 60-day negotiation window on a broader accord, including constraints around Iran’s nuclear programme, where Tehran is expected to commit to maintaining its current status and not pursuing nuclear weapons. The US hasn’t been so explicit and whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran. 

For now the can kicking exercise has been very well received by markets even after a strong US close on Friday where hopes were raised of a weekend signing. Brent is -4.3% lower at $83.31/bbl and S&P 500 (+1.20%), NASDAQ 100 (+1.90%) and Stoxx (+1.60%) futures are higher as I type and in Asia the KOSPI (+5.56%) is again leading the charge with the Nikkei (+5.24%) not far behind and at fresh record highs. The CSI and Shanghai Composite are +1.47% and +0.94% respectively, while the Hang Seng is +0.45%. The S&P/ASX 200 (+1.34%) is also trading significantly higher ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting. 10-year USTs are trading -5.3bps lower at 4.43% as I write with 2-yr yields -5.7bps lower.

The other major story is the decision late on Friday from the US government to issue an export control directive forcing Anthropic to restrict access to its most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, released to great global acclaim last week, to US nationals only, citing undefined national security concerns. In practice, because it is operationally difficult to separate users by nationality, Anthropic opted to suspend access to these models entirely on a global basis. The move marks one of the first instances of the US applying export controls not just to AI hardware (e.g. semiconductors) but directly to frontier models themselves, reflecting a growing view of AI as a strategic, dual use asset.
Clearly the export control may only be temporary as the cited jailbreak risk is examined and rectified quickly. This is probably the most likely outcome. However, if it longer-term, and more strategic from the US government, it's not great news for US tech firms or for those assuming breakneck speed of AI adoption. US tech firms require a global marketplace to justify their huge investments so far. In addition, global enterprise would want to ensure any models they purchase are usable, especially for business-critical operations. You can't rely on something that could be switched off. So all eyes on what Anthropic and the US government agree as the next step.

Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week, with key policy decisions across the Fed, BoJ and BoE alongside important inflation and activity data.

The primary focus will be the United States and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which marks the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The leadership transition introduces a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around both policy signalling and communication style. While an immediate policy shift is unlikely, the meeting will be closely scrutinised for early indications of how Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s framework, particularly given his stated ambition for a broader “regime change”.

In terms of the statement, a modest upgrade to the labour market assessment appears likely, reflecting steady job growth and a broadly stable unemployment rate. More importantly, the guidance language could shift meaningfully. Warsh has been openly critical of heavy reliance on forward guidance, so the Committee may lean towards a more neutral, data-dependent formulation. This would effectively remove any residual easing bias and reopen the possibility of further tightening should inflation dynamics warrant it. Any such adjustment would be interpreted as a recalibration towards optionality rather than a firm directional signal.

Beyond the headline statement, attention will turn to the Summary of Economic Projections. The distribution of rate expectations may shift upwards, with 4 or 5 policymakers signalling the potential for hikes into 2026 and beyond. This would likely nudge the median path higher across the projection horizon and reinforce the idea that the Fed is not yet comfortable declaring victory on inflation. Our economists note that Warsh may not submit dots which would reflect his views on forward guidance. Revisions to inflation forecasts, particularly for the outer years, will also be closely examined for evidence of more persistent price pressures. At the moment our economists expect core PCE for 2027 to be raised by a tenth to 2.3%.

However, the most revealing element of the meeting may be Warsh’s press conference. His prior remarks suggest he will likely place less emphasis on near-term data fluctuations and explicit forward guidance, instead favouring a broader narrative around structural forces such as productivity and technological change. While this could temper the immediate hawkish interpretation, markets may test whether this framing is sufficient to justify patience in the face of still-elevated inflation. Just as important will be any early signals on communication reform—whether through changes to the dot plot, adjustments to the SEP, or a broader rethink of how the Fed conveys uncertainty. So a fascinating meeting to look forward to.

In terms of US data, the focus will be on May retail sales due Wednesday, and our US economists expect a +0.5% MoM rise in the headline (same as in April). Industrial production is due today (DB forecast is a +0.1% MoM increase, down from +0.7% in April) and there will be several housing indicators out this week as well. US markets will be on holiday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day on Friday.
Outside the US, central bank activity remains heavy. In Europe, decisions are due from the Riksbank and a cluster of Thursday meetings including the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. In the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention focused on the vote split (our team expect 7-2) and any evolution in guidance against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation (see preview here). Incoming UK data, particularly CPI (Wednesday), labour market indicators (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday), will provide important context for the policy outlook. Meanwhile, euro area attention will also be shaped by ongoing commentary from ECB officials and sentiment indicators such as the German ZEW survey (tomorrow).

Political developments will also be in focus, with the G7 leaders meeting early in the week (today through Wednesday) followed by the European Council summit (Thursday-Friday).

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow) stands out, with expectations for a further rate increase as part of its gradual normalisation process. Japanese inflation data later in the week (Friday) will help gauge whether underlying price momentum continues to justify policy tightening. In China, their monthly activity data tomorrow covering industrial production and retail sales will provide an updated read on the growth trajectory, with expectations for a modest improvement after recent softness.

Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold (tomorrow), while New Zealand’s GDP release (Wednesday) will offer further insight into the strength of its economic recovery.

Recapping last week now, and markets saw big moves on the back of geopolitical developments, as tensions first mounted in the Middle East, before easing markedly into the weekend. Overall, hopes for an imminent deal meant that oil prices came down, with Brent crude closing beneath $90/bbl for the first time since early March, down -6.19% to close at $87.33bbl (-3.37% Friday). Indeed, that was clear across the futures curve, with the 6-month Brent future also down -3.46% to $81.69/bbl, its lowest level since April.

With oil prices at their lowest in months, that helped to ease fears about a wider stagflationary shock. Moreover, investors also became dovish on the future rates outlook. For instance, futures were fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by December at the start of the week, but that probability was down to 82% by the weekend. So that meant the 10yr Treasury yield fell -5.0bps (+1.9bps Friday) to 4.48%. And over in Europe, the 10yr bund yield fell -3.7bps to 2.99%, with markets looking through the ECB’s 25bp hike given it was already priced in beforehand.  

For equities this provided a strong backdrop, as positive geopolitical headlines and easing inflation fears supported optimism on the near-term outlook. So the S&P 500 managed to pare back some of the previous week’s decline, with a weekly gain of +0.65% (+0.50% Friday). And over in Europe, there were even stronger gains for the STOX 600, which rose +1.69% (+1.88% Friday). In the tech space, there was another big gain for the Philly semiconductor index, which rose +9.42% last week, but that followed a -10.26% decline on the previous Friday, so the index was still beneath its levels prior to that slump. Meanwhile, rotation away from mega caps saw the Mag-7 fall by -2.54%.

Some other assets also saw less favorable moves. In Germany, the DAX fell -0.50%, making it a relative underperformer in Europe, while Japan’s Nikkei fell -0.85%. Otherwise, HY credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, with US HY up +1bps and Euro HY up +18bps, though IG spreads were more sanguine, with US IG down -1bps and Euro IG flat. And gold fell -2.52% to its lowest weekly close of 2026 at $4,219/oz.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:20

Fox Buys Roku In $22 Billion Deal To Build "Next-Gen Media" Giant

Fox agreed to acquire Roku for $160 per share in a cash-and-stock deal, valuing Roku at around $22 billion. The deal marks a major push by Fox into connected TV, streaming advertising, and direct-to-consumer distribution.

On Friday, Roku shares jumped 20% to a four-year high on Bloomberg news that the company was in talks to be acquired by an unnamed media company. That created a wave of suspense over the weekend among Wall Street research desks, which published several notes speculating on potential acquirers.

JPM

Needham

Citizens

Under the terms of the deal, Roku shareholders will receive $96 in cash and .9693 shares of Fox Class A common stock for each Roku share. Existing Fox shareholders are expected to own about 73% of the combined company, with Roku shareholders owning roughly 27%.

"The transaction combines FOX's leading sports, news and entertainment content and the Tubi service, with Roku's leading connected TV platform, The Roku Channel, first-party data and direct relationship with more than 100 million global streaming households. Together, FOX and Roku will create a scaled next-generation media and technology company positioned at the intersection of two of the most important forces reshaping video consumption: the enduring primacy of live sports and news, and the continued rise of streaming," Fox wrote in a press release, in what only appears to be the emergency of a media empire.

Lachlan K. Murdoch, executive chair and CEO of Fox, said, "In 2020, we acquired Tubi and under our stewardship it has become one of the most successful businesses in streaming. Today, we take the next step: bringing together the most valuable live content portfolio in video consumption with the preeminent streaming platform through which America watches it."

"This combination will transform the scope of our company into high-growth verticals and yield a step change in our overall growth profile," Murdoch said, adding, "And we are executing this acquisition from a position of financial strength – maintaining our investment grade balance sheet while providing our shareholders with an uninterrupted return of capital program in the form of share buybacks and dividends. Roku pioneered streaming TV and scaled it into a leading CTV platform. Together, we intend to lead its next chapter."

Fox detailed key benefits of the merger:

• Increases scale and reach: The transaction pairs the leader in live news and sports with the leading connected TV platform. Roku's platform has leading scale in the attractive, high growth connected TV vertical, reaching over 100 million global streaming households, including more than half of all U.S. broadband households. FOX is #1 in live news and sports, with a portfolio including the NFL, MLB, NASCAR, Big Ten, FIFA World Cup, FOX News and FOX Business that represents some of the most valuable appointment-viewing content in television. Together, FOX and Roku will encompass premium live content, broad distribution and significant audience reach across linear and streaming.

• Expands position in high growth verticals: The acquisition of Roku positions FOX across the full video ecosystem and provides a wider entry into the high growth segment of connected TV, particularly advertising and streaming subscriptions.

• Creates a more powerful streaming platform: Brings together FOX's premium content and advertising capabilities with Roku's consumer interface, home screen, platform technology and direct viewer relationships to enhance content discovery, deepen engagement and create a more compelling streaming experience for consumers and content partners.

• Enhances long-term growth profile: Advances FOX's business mix toward high growth streaming and connected TV verticals and maintains a balanced mix across advertising and distribution businesses, while strengthening the combined company's long-term growth and financial profile and maintaining FOX's disciplined capital allocation approach.

In markets, Roku added about 2% in premarket trading, building on Friday's 20% gain. Fox shares were down about 10%.

Last Friday, Needham analyst Laura Martin raised her Roku price target to $170 from $140, "based on Roku's value to a larger company."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:15

Anthropic Races To Defuse Trump's Fable 5 U.S. Export Curbs While Jefferies Sees New Headwind For China AI

Anthropic's Fable/Mythos 5 ranks number one in the world for model intelligence, widening the US-China gap. The gap may widen further because of "anti-distillation" features, and the models are now under US export control, which has shuttered access to the advanced models.

LLM model matrix pic.twitter.com/d64OIhoYDH

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 11, 2026

Late Friday, the US government banned foreign governments, companies, and individuals from using Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models after researchers at Amazon demonstrated to the Trump administration that some safeguards on Fable could be circumvented.

People familiar with what's happening inside the Trump administration told The Wall Street Journal that Anthropic sent top officials to the White House and held calls to resolve software vulnerabilities, including the alleged ability to 'jailbreak' the model.

DARIO REFUSED TO FIX JAILBREAK W/ ANTHROPIC MYTHOS MODEL: SACKS https://t.co/VArxay0cVA

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 13, 2026

Anthropic's top security staff, including Nicholas Carlini, Logan Graham, and Dave Orr, were sent to Washington on Saturday to speak with senior US officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The move by the frontier AI lab aims to resolve vulnerabilities exposed by Amazon researchers.

More color from WSJ:

People close to the company and the administration said both parties are interested in resolving the issue and restoring access to the cutting-edge models, but it isn't clear what a solution would entail.

Anthropic technical experts and government security researchers coming together was seen by some administration officials as a key step toward a compromise.

The weekend discussions continue months of tension between the administration and one of America's leading AI labs over how new, cutting-edge technologies are used and regulated. The Trump administration has recently taken more steps to control the fast-evolving industry.

The imminent “Anthropic - White House” ceasefire is the new imminent “Iran-US” ceasefire https://t.co/byCO9mLo2h

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 14, 2026

A Sunday letter by cybersecurity experts urged the Trump administration to lift the restrictions on the models, warning that such a move could hurt U.S. cyber defenses, create market uncertainty, and weaken America's AI leadership.

However, Jefferies analysts said quite the opposite, noting that "anti-distillation" features and US export control, "which could make it harder for open-source (Chinese) models to catch up."

"US models are improving at a faster pace likely due to compute advantage, but anti- distillation and US export control are new negatives for China AI," the analysts said. 

More from Jefferies:

Open-source models (mostly Chinese) may find it harder to improve given new anti- distillation features and US export control. More importantly, Anthropic introduced anti- distillation features on Fable 5. If Fable 5 detects suspicious distillation activities, it would downgrade the model to Opus 4.8 and notify users. While this seems to be targeting Chinese AI development, we believe this would set back open source progress if all closed-source model developers follow suit. Moreover, the US has imposed emergency export control on Fable 5, barring foreigners from using them (including foreign employees of US companies), given loopholes in the cybersecurity safeguards. However, since Anthropic has no tools to limit the use to US nationals only (ie, ID checks?), it has suspended both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 globally until it could come up with a way to enforce that export control.

Polymarket

Did the Trump administration overreact to Amazon's findings about Fable 5? Or is it really about slowing China's open source model progress?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 07:45