Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Excerpt:

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in this newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on my blog).

I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

8) Residential Investment: How much will Residential investment (RI) change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

First a graph of RI as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through Q3 2025:

We don't have the data yet for Q4 2025 yet, but RI as a percent of GDP will likely be down year-over-year.

My Boxing Day morning reads:

• Playing Santa Does Strange Things to a Man. What It Did to Bob Rutan Was Even Stranger. Bob Rutan is legendary among the tight-knit fraternity of Macy’s Santa Clauses. Like many of these men, playing Santa changed Bob. Profoundly. His story is one of struggle and failure, heartbreak and grace and—yes—the magic of Christmas. (Esquire)

• Can Netflix Help Save the American Mall? The entertainment company’s new “Netflix House” experience is bringing the brand’s shows into former department stores. Will streaming TV fans follow? (CityLab)

• King of Cannibal Island: The tulip bubble​ is the most famous financial bubble in history, but as historical examples go it is also, in one crucial respect, misleading. That’s because anyone can see the flagrant irrationality which was at work. At peak tulip madness in 1637, rare bulbs were so expensive that a single one was worth as much as a fancy canalside house in Amsterdam. You don’t have to be Warren Buffett to see that the disconnect between price and value was based on delusional thinking. (London Review of Books)

• No one knows anything. Let’s ask them about that: It’s never obvious what to do with thematic surveys. Is it positive or negative that 0 per cent of investors expect a new pandemic in the next 12 months? Should we assume their guess is probably right and buy airline stocks, or should we assume the consensus has underpriced the possibility and sell airline stocks? (FT Alphaville)

•  The Untold Story of Charlie Munger’s Final Years: The Berkshire vice chair was making gutsy investments, forging unlikely friendships and facing new challenges to the end. (Wall Street Journal)

• It turns out that CBS forgot to cancel the broadcast of the piece in the Canadian market…  Here’s the 60 Minutes Segment Trump and CBS News Executives Don’t Want You to See Hours before it was set to air last night, CBS News executives pulled the segment, but Canada’s Global TV app received it prior to broadcast. (The Reset)

• The Most Important Thing We Learned From Susie Wiles: Ever since the publication last week of a two-part article in Vanity Fair in which Susie Wiles, the White House chief of staff, said all of that and more, political observers have been asking: Why did she do it? Why discard her usual discretion and speak so frankly, on the record, about her cracked compatriots in the Trump administration? (New York Times) see also 5 turning points that explain MAGA’s civil war. Today, the movement’s most consequential fights are unfolding beyond the control of its term-limited president — empowering rival factions to shape MAGA in their own image. MAGA entered the year with a sheen of invincibility, riding the high of Trump’s victory and united in his promise of a new “Golden Age.” It’s ending 2025 locked in an existential war over the future of conservatism. (Axios)

• How Willie Nelson Sees America: On the road with the musician, his band, and his family. (New Yorker)

• James Webb Space Telescope confirms 1st ‘runaway’ supermassive black hole rocketing through home galaxy at 2.2 million mph: ‘It boggles the mind!’ News By Robert Lea published December 17, 2025 “The forces that are needed to dislodge such a massive black hole from its home are enormous.” (Space.com)

• How How the Grinch Stole Christmas: Behind the scenes of the lavish, painful, wigged-out movie that should have won Jim Carrey an Oscar. (Vulture)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

High market concentration isn’t a sell signal

Source: TKer

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The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

World War And The Plan To Control Or Kill Young Western Men

Written by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us

When I think of the recent assassination of Charlie Kirk I see the event as symbolic of the death of civil discourse in the west. The timeline split at that moment leaving two distinct groups: The conservatives and centrists who cling to the fantasy that progress through traditional politics is still possible, and the patriots who now realize that a peaceful resolution is unattainable.

I also see it as symbolic of a deeper element of the culture war – Specifically, the war on young white western men. Kirk was 31 at the time of his death. Not “young”, but almost 15 years younger than I am, and it has left me thinking about the future for the next generation of western males at a time when the system is obviously hellbent on destroying them.

They have been the subject of economic warfare through DEI: Corporations and colleges give first shot to any identity group other than white males regardless of merit.

They have been targeted by social warfare: Demonized as irredeemable monsters by woke cancel culture and labeled the cause of all the world’s ills.  Their ancestors built a civilization of unprecedented prosperity and so much material bounty even the poorest people are fat.  They created the middle class, a concept which had never existed before in history.  In 1890 the average global life expectancy was 42 years; by 1990 the average life expectancy was 73 years, all because of western civilization and the technology it created.  And now, white guys are being punished for it.

They have been selected for extermination: They’re the key demographic that leftist governments want to use as cannon fodder for a mindless geopolitical mess in Ukraine.

Charlie Kirk’s biggest mistake was believing that the system could be defeated through peaceful discourse. He was wrong. It’s not just the insanity of the political left that makes peace and reason impossible, there’s also the machinations of globalist controlled governments working tirelessly to conjure a perpetual meat grinder through domestic and foreign conflicts.

One indicator of a coming purge is the open call for young men (specifically conservative men) to accept the idea of future conscription. Multiple EU member states have threatened to institute a military draft if volunteer numbers do not dramatically increase (so much for “democracy”). The purpose of the draft? To construct an EU army large enough to go toe-to-toe with Russia.

As I predicted in my article “World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided”, published in April of 2024, the globalists in Europe are doing everything in their power to stop a peace plan from moving forward in Ukraine. They have been actively sabotaging the Trump Administration’s efforts for a summit which actually includes Russia instead of cutting them out of the process.

At the same time that a greater war is being fomented, there has been a relentless gnawing crusade to demoralize young white men. One could rightly say that this campaign also affects some minority men in places like the US, but let’s not play games – The primary target is without a doubt white western males.

Why? It’s hard to say for certain, but when patriots are called to action it’s usually white conservative men that answer. Minorities (third world migrants in particular) are far more inclined to lean into socialism and view western civilization as a structure to be torn down rather than protected.

This attitude is changing in some areas of South America, for example, but the fact remains that if you visit a developing nation, chances are high that free markets and individual liberty are not common societal values. It’s not racial profiling, it’s simply statistical fact.

In Europe, the current goal of the establishment is to crush the spirits of western men while protecting migrants as a precious commodity. In the UK, the narrative is focused like a laser on white conservative males as public enemy #1, while simultaneously demanding that these same men “prove their patriotism” by fighting for the elites against Russia.

I was watching a news broadcast from the BBC a few months ago in which a male journalist of military age tried to argue rational points on why men in Britain are reticent to go to war for the existing government. He noted that they do not believe that the leftist politicians in power represent them anymore and they feel they are being rapidly replaced by third worlders with hostile ideologies. Why would they fight for such a government?

A black female journalist involved in the discussion sneered at the man’s argument, then grinned as she asserted that nothing he says matters because he could be drafted whether he likes it or not. It was the evil grin of a communist – She knows she’s part of the protected class. She knows that he can be sent to die no matter how logical and reasonable his position,  Meanwhile, she risks nothing in her support of continued war.

She was reveling in the idea of white conservative men being expendable. It’s the leftist dream, is it not? To turn their political opponents into beasts of burden and fuel for the fire of their Utopian fantasy. They don’t care about being correct, or moral; they just want to crush the life out of people who disagree with them.

Progressives in Europe have taken to social media asserting that conservative men should BE SENT FIRST to war; because they are better mentally suited to combat (because conservatives are violent monsters, remember?). They are also easy to sacrifice in the name of the grand progressive experiment. There is, of course, no talk of sending the millions of military age migrant men in Europe to the front lines in Ukraine.

Again, I predicted this exact scenario in my article “Europe Goes Full Totalitarian And Puts The Entire Western World At Risk”, published in March. I stated:

“I would go even further and say that in the event of war with Russia native born citizens will be rounded up for conscription while most migrants are left behind to run the streets of London, Paris and Berlin. I believe the migrants are enforcers to keep any potentially defiant Europeans in line. Many empires and monarchs throughout history have used foreign mercenaries as muscle to prevent local rebellion. The politicians in the EU and UK are following a similar strategy…”

I’ve identified at least three separate propaganda narratives and political agendas that are working in tandem as a weapon against western men.  These mechanisms are highly coordinated across social media, with mainstream news platforms, politicians and influencers repeating the same talking points as if they all received the same script.

Lazy, Apathetic, Angry And Dangerous To Society

Social media is rife with this disinformation claim – Often perpetuated by female influencers, they assert that young men are no longer engaging with modern women and he liberal order because they are “porn addicted”, lack motivation and have no direction. They say that young males have abandoned society and that this makes them volatile and prone to unpredictable violence.

Nothing could be further from the truth. Young men are simply building their own separate society which preserves western values and protects their heritage from the ravages of deconstructionists. Feminists and establishment shills are worried about men walking away because then they can’t exploit those men for their labor and resources anymore. By extension, when men separate from the liberal herd, they have greater independence and a greater potential to rebel.

I would argue that the “incel” narrative widely promoted in the past decade by the political left has nothing to do with sincere concerns about the mental health of young men. Rather, it’s all about controlling those men before they go rogue against the establishment.

Using Economic Hardship And War To Weed Out The Strong

In George Orwell’s novel “Animal Farm”, the communist Pigs seek to dominate the other animals by keeping them busy with arduous (but empty) acts of labor. They use this aimless labor to break the backs of the strongest animals on the farm. The horse named “Boxer” is a true believer in the common good of the collective, but the Pigs see his strength as a potential threat to their long term rule.

They exploit Boxer’s patriotism and ultimately work him to death. They then sell his body to a slaughterhouse despite his faithful service to the farm.

If you are a young man and a patriot in the west and primarily in Europe, YOU are Boxer the horse. They will send you off to slaughter in the name of the collective because you represent potential opposition. They will use economic decline as a means to pressure you into conformity, or leave you no other option but to join the military. They will then celebrate your death, because they nullified your strength without ever having to fight you directly.

Young Men, The Warrior Class And The Weak Elites

Another story I’m often reminded of when contemplating the plight of young men is “The 47 Ronin”. The basic theme is one of justice vs. law and government corruption. When the benevolent lord of a samurai fiefdom is assassinated by another lord, his soldiers call for justice. However, the government intervenes and disrupts any investigation into the murder.

They know the opposing lord is a criminal, but he is also an elite valuable to the power structure. He is one of them, and to punish their own is to bring the entire feudal system into question in the eyes of the nation. They allow him to escape consequences for the sake of the “greater good.”

The samurai, though, do not share in this “enlightened” vision of gray morality. They see everything as black and white; honorable and dishonorable. They make a plan to kill the enemy lord who murdered their master.

I find this story to be the most profound when it comes to explaining the way in which men are treated by modern liberal society, specifically white men in the west. At the end of The 47 Ronin, the samurai succeed in killing the corrupt lord, but they are then required to commit mass suicide or face dishonorable execution as criminals.

They are warriors that have gone rogue; they have exited the societal reservation. They have become the most dangerous thing in existence: Honest men willing to act outside the law.  And so, they must die for the sake of the status quo.

What I see going on today is a perverse agenda to control western men and keep them subservient. The agenda stifles the next generation, through nihilist propaganda, through the apathy of the political circus, and by conditioning those men to see themselves as a dispensable utility. If the system can’t control these men, it will try to kill them by creating a war big enough to thin their ranks by attrition.

The elites view the warrior class as the ultimate danger, and young western men represent the best chance of a renewed warrior class. If these men ever realize their true power, the weakling elites would be wiped off the face of the Earth within moments. I hear the argument often that this kind of rebellion is meaningless without a detailed plan to rebuild.  This is another means of control – Demand a perfect solution before action is ever taken so that nothing ever gets done.

Warriors understand that reformation only comes from the will to take action; the will to create momentum. They understand that civil discourse has its place, but if all it does is maintain the status quo then it must be abandoned. Warriors understand that the worst thing one can do is debate the obvious while the world burns.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 22:30

Number Of Centenarians Skyrockets In The US

Between the 2010 and the 2020 Census, the number of centenarians in the United States grew by 50 percent to more than 80,000 as the realities of aging populations are catching up to a country that had previously outdone its peer when it came to fertility and demographic development.

As Statista's Katharins Buchholz reports, the recently published Census Bureau report on centenarians shows that while they remain a very small part of the U.S. population at only two out of every 10,000 Americans, they are nevertheless emblematic of global changes that see increased life expectancy meet lower fertility rates.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The country with the world’s most centenarians – Japan – has more than twice as many and has been plagued by the realities of demographic change for years.

In 2020, more than 60 percent of U.S. centenarians were aged 100 or 101, while only 10 percent were aged 105 or above.

Women, who have higher life expectancies, were hugely overrepresented among the group, with 79 percent of U.S. centenarians being female.

White Americans are also overrepresented in centenarian populations.

Black and Asian Americans made up somewhat smaller shares of them than their overall population shares would suggest.

Meanwhile Latinos were hugely underrepresented among centenarians, with only around 9 percent of those reaching the age of 100 currently part of the group despite 18.7 percent in the country now identifying as Hispanic. This could be due to the fact that Latino populations are among the fastest growing in the U.S. and therefor have many younger members. Puerto Rico was the place with the second-most centenarians in the country, only surpassed by Hawaii.

The changing realities of aging and fertility have caused demographic change to accelerate recently in the United States. Between the 2010 and the 2020 Census, the number of Americans aged 65 and over rose by 4 percentage points to 16.8% as Baby Boomers entered retirement. Between 1990 and 2000 as well as between 2000 and 2010, this number had held more or less steady.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 21:45

Is A Paleoconservative 'New America First' Committee The Answer?

Authored by J.D. Hester via AntiWar.com

With paleoconservatism currently ascendant in the United States, the slogan "America First" has risen to prominence in public discourse. However, this is not the first time that the phrase has been commonplace in American politics. While America First is currently associated with the right, the bipartisan America First Committee (AFC) united anti-war activists across the political spectrum around keeping the US out of the Second World War. With the Russo-Ukraine War raging on and the Israel lobby pushing for more US involvement in the Middle East, it is once again time for a big-tent alliance to oppose war and put America first.

"History is written by the victors" is a popular adage to describe the phenomenon in which the victorious side of a conflict mythologizes their exploits. Anti-war activists, especially for generally popular wars like WWII, are often vilified as bigots or sympathizers of foreign nations. In the modern era, opponents of U.S. support for Israel are often vilified as "Jihadists," "third-worldists," or "Islamists." Likewise, those skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine are regularly smeared as Putin apologists. Similar slanderous claims have been made about the AFC, despite the principled motives of the vast majority of its members.

Chicago Herald-American

While some members of the America First Committee, like the famous aviator Charles Lindbergh, made antisemitic statements, the organization itself fought antisemitism in its ranks. Nevertheless, historical revisionists have often fixated on the small minority of genuine antisemites. As one historian put it: "Thousands of sincere Americans of varied background and from both political parties joined and contributed to [the America First Committee]. It also attracted support from a number of fringe hate organizations, from anti-Semites, and from Nazi sympathizers. This minority support tarnished its reputation."

The efforts of critics to smear the organization have mostly concealed its successes. However, some prominent individuals have praised the organization for what it was able to accomplish in the short time it existed (about 15 months). Paleoconservative commentator Patrick Buchanan wrote,

"The achievements of [the America First Committee] are monumental. By keeping America out of World War II until Hitler attacked Stalin in June of 1941, Soviet Russia, not America, bore the brunt of the fighting, bleeding and dying to defeat Nazi Germany. Thanks to America First, no nation suffered less in the world’s worst war."

By resisting the efforts of war hawks to preemptively enter World War II, the AFC likely prevented the deaths of thousands of young American men and demonstrated the power of anti-war advocacy.

Now, the time is ripe for another coalition of anti-war activists from across the political spectrum to oppose the possibility of U.S. military entanglement in Venezuela, Ukraine, or the Middle East. Indeed, a new AFC might be closer than expected. In a previous article, I outlined how Tucker Carlson, a paleoconservative, has found common ground with progressives like Cenk Uygur and Ana Kasparian on opposing U.S. support for Israel.

While a new antiwar coalition would certainly look different than the original AFC, the modern geopolitics are radically different from the 1930s. The United States is now a nuclear-armed superpower capable of waging war anywhere on the globe. Additionally, the Israel lobby exerts a strong influence over numerous American politicians. A new antiwar coalition will have different goals and employ different strategies. Nevertheless, its core mission––putting America first by resisting unjust wars – would remain the same.

In the end, a new America First Committee might be even more necessary than it was in 1941. With the advent of nuclear weapons, military conflict is an existential threat to our world. In fact, the doomsday clock states that the world is a mere 89 seconds to midnight. Americans across the political spectrum are waking up to this reality. Opposing war is not a matter of ideology; it is a matter of survival. The simple idea that the American government should put the interests of the people it represents first is so obvious, yet often absent in practice.

A modern AFC could pressure the government to act according to the will of the people and prove that dissent is patriotic. The America First Committee offers a historical blueprint, but it is up to us to build the momentum and movement necessary to truly change U.S. foreign policy.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 21:00

US Northeast Set For Post-Christmas Winter Storm

A post-Christmas Day winter blast is expected for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast for the end of the week, with some of the heaviest snowfall expected in eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and the New York City area.

Meteorologist Steven DiMartino of private forecaster NY NJ PA Weather wrote in a new report Thursday that the winter storm will dump accumulating snow across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Friday afternoon through Saturday.

Here is DiMartino's forecast, which suggests that travel disruptions could occur up and down the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia to Boston:

• Timing: Snow develops Friday between 3-6 PM, becomes steady after 6 PM. Mixed precipitation develops after midnight in several zones, with a change back to all snow by early Saturday morning. Snow showers may linger through late Saturday morning.

• Heaviest impacts: Interior parts of New York and nearby areas could see 6-10 inches of snow or sleet.

• Moderate snow: Portions of southern New England and nearby regions may receive 3-6 inches.

• Mixed precipitation zones: Areas around Philadelphia and central Pennsylvania face snow changing to sleet or rain, with 1-4 inches of snow and up to .05-.25 inches of ice, raising the risk of slick roads and power issues.

• Farther south: Snow may briefly change to rain, with lighter accumulations.

• Coastal New England: Lighter snow showers, generally 1-3 inches.

Forecast Map:

Related:

• "Winter Isn't Over": NatGas Soars As Another Cold Blast Targets US East

• Mapping The Chances Of A White Christmas

Meanwhile, on the US West Coast:

• Atmospheric Rivers Pound US West Coast, Raising Bomb Cyclone Threat Ahead Of Christmas

The latest warmup has been a welcome relief following a first half of December marked by polar vortex mayhem across the eastern half of the Lower 48.

We expect cold air to return in the coming weeks, as peak winter is between mid- and late January.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 20:15

All We Want For Christmas Is A Return To Civility

Authored by William Brooks via The Epoch Times,

For many folks raised in the northern United States and Canada, the Christmas season evokes vivid childhood memories: fresh snowfalls, frosted windowpanes, the scent of a pine tree in a warm living room, and neighbourhoods aglow with coloured lights against the early evening darkness.

We recall midnight carol services followed by exciting Christmas mornings, the thrill of unwrapping a new pair of skates, and the delicious aroma of a roasting turkey.

For almost everyone, Christmas was a season of goodwill—a time when families reunited, neighbours dropped by for eggnog, and communities felt briefly stitched together by shared customs rather than pulled apart by grievance. Those memories help explain why Andy Williams’s early 1960s hit could so confidently proclaim, “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year.”

Such fond recollections now sit in sharp contrast to the Decembers we inhabit today.

What was once a broadly shared cultural moment increasingly feels caught in a vortex of political resentment, culture-war skirmishes, and competing claims over the public space. The season that once wrapped communities in a common warmth now exposes society’s fault lines. Christmas has not disappeared—its lights still shines—but the bonds that once united us are harder to distinguish amid the confusion of post-modern diversity.

During the Christmas season, expressions of hostility toward people of faith have become a familiar part of our present-day ideological battles. Scholars have long documented the opposition of adversarial intellectual movements toward the influence of Christian values in public life. In the United States, organizations such as the Satanic Temple and the Freedom From Religion Foundation openly work to challenge the presence of Christian symbols and traditions in civic settings. Legal arguments invoking the Constitution’s Establishment Clause are routinely used to confine Christmas displays and pageants to private spaces.

In Canada, grievances have taken a more troubling turn. Over the past several years, specious allegations related to the history of indigenous residential schools contributed to an atmosphere in which more than 100 Christian churches have been vandalized or burned, from Kamloops, British Columbia, to Halifax, Nova Scotia.

One cannot ignore that the Judeo-Christian traditions, which once healed social divisions, have become a target for discord. Even the most familiar religious symbols provoke dispute. What used to be shared feelings of peace and joy are now pulled into broader conflicts over identity and power. Sentiments that were once widely shared appear sharply divided, and scores of young people are being conscripted into the pathological legions of a troubled age.

Restoring the Spirit of Christmas

Whatever one’s views on history or accountability, the globalization of violence against people of faith and places of worship reveals how deeply polarized our cultural landscape has become.

In an era when division dominates headlines, restoring the spirit of Christmas will require something countercultural: a deliberate return to civility. As we approach 2026—a year likely to bring continued economic, political, and global uncertainty—individuals and communities still have an opportunity to reclaim the season by prioritizing goodwill over conflict.

One practical step is to revive social gatherings that bridge divides. Local get-togethers, informal open houses, or even virtual reunions can create spaces where politics are set aside in favour of conversation, laughter, and shared experiences. As CBS World War II correspondent Eric Sevareid once observed: “Christmas is a necessity. There has to be at least one day of the year to remind us that we’re here for something else besides ourselves.” Such simple messages can soften resentment, much like the Christmas parties of years gone by.

Another way to restore the season’s spirit is through acts of service. With economic pressures and social isolation still prevalent, volunteering at shelters, donating to food banks, or organizing gift drives can reconnect Christmas to its traditional message of charity and hope. U.S. President Calvin Coolidge captured this well when he wrote: “Christmas is not a time nor a season, but a state of mind. … To cherish peace and goodwill, to be plenteous in mercy, is to have the real spirit of Christmas.” Charitable acts can shift the human focus from self-indulgence to generosity.

Personal reflection is also useful. Attending a carol service, rereading traditional works like Charles Dickens’s “A Christmas Carol” or Dylan Thomas’s “A Child’s Christmas in Wales” can restore the virtues of empathy and humility that contribute to the true spirit of Christmas. In a world that is so quick to weaponize differences, reflection reminds us of what we share. Writer and clergyman Norman Vincent Peale once asserted that “Christmas waves a magic wand over this world, and behold, everything is softer and more beautiful.”

Finally, we can choose to engage more prudently with modern technology: using it to connect with distant loved ones or share words of encouragement, while stepping back from the outrage-driven algorithms that profit from division.

As the iconic American humorist Mark Twain once noted: “It is my heart-warmed and world-embracing Christmas hope and aspiration that all of us, the high, the low, the rich, the poor, the admired, the despised, the loved, the hated, the civilized, the savage (every man and brother of us all throughout the whole earth), may eventually be gathered together in a heaven of everlasting rest and peace and bliss, except” he joked, “the inventor of the telephone.”

If Christmas feels diminished today, it is not because its message has failed, but because we have allowed civility to erode.

Choosing goodwill over resentment will not end every conflict—but it can restore the warmth that once made this season truly wonderful.

In that choice lies a quiet but powerful act of hope.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 19:30

Ex-Netanyahu Aide Says 1st Post-Oct 7 Tasking From 'Panicked' PM Was Helping Him Dodge Responsibility

A former top aide to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that, in the wake of the Oct 7 Hamas invasion on Israel, the first assignment he received from a "panicked" prime minister was figuring out how he could avoid being held responsible for an attack that was as humiliating for Netanyahu as it was devastating for the country. He also said Netanyahu was personally involved in orchestrating the leak of classified information to foreign media in a bid to dodge criticism over a failure to reach a ceasefire agreement.  

Eli Feldstein says Prime Minister Netanyahu was part of a scheme to leak classified information to foreign media to bolster his standing 

The accusations from former Netanyahu spokesman Eli Feldstein came in an extensive interview with Israel's Kan news network that aired Monday and Tuesday nights. While there were many communication needs in the wake of mass bloodshed that brought 1,200 deaths and saw hundreds taken captive, Feldstein said Netanyahu's first priority was avoiding blame. Describing Netanyahu as appearing "panicked" at the time, Feldstein told Kan: 

“He asked me, ‘What are they talking about in the news? Are they still talking about responsibility? He wanted me to think of something that could be said that would offset the media storm surrounding the question of whether the prime minister had taken responsibility or not...The first and biggest task that I had after October 7 was erasing the concept of [Netanyahu’s] responsibility from the public discourse.”  

Further hammering the point, Feldstein said that close Netanyahu associates even advised Feldstein to ensure the word "responsibility" never appeared in statements that he was preparing. “They told me to take the word 'responsibility' out of the lexicon and formulate something without the word 'responsibility' ... it won’t go in,” he said.

Eli Feldstein, who stands accused of operating as a Qatari agent while working as Netanyahu's spokesman, reveals the one and only mission he ever got from the PM: Figure out how I can shirk responsibility for October 7. Do anything. This is just the promo for a long interview… pic.twitter.com/c7I7gmLQZ5

— UnXeptable (@UnxeptableD) December 22, 2025

His account is certain to strike a nerve in Israel, where Netanyahu has faced steady criticism for accepting responsibility for the massive security failure that took place under his government's watch -- and has also been accused of extending the war in Gaza so as to forestall a comprehensive, post-war inquiry, even if extending the war meant keeping hostages lives in peril.

Responding to the broadcast, the prime minister's office was dismissive of what it called a "long series of mendacious and recycled allegations made by a man with clear personal interests who is trying to deflect responsibility from himself." Feldstein has been charged with leaking classified information to the media in a bid to shield Netanyahu from criticism at a time when Gaza ceasefire negotiations had come to a halt.

In his Kan interview, Feldstein said Netanyahu was very much a part of that scheme: “In order to [publicize] such a document, the prime minister must be in the picture – from beginning to end..He is the one who ultimately was behind the leak.” He said Netanyahu is lying when he denies his own involvement. 

Netanyahu recently hosted Sen. Lindsey Graham in Israel 

Feldstein, who'd previously worked for far-right Netanyahu coalition member and current national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, was accused of planting bogus narratives that Hamas was scheming to smuggle Israeli hostages into Egypt, and that Hamas was prolonging negotiations in a form of psychological warfare on the Israeli people. At least one of the outlets that relied on Feldstein's leaks -- the Jewish Chronicle of London -- went on to withdraw their report, with prominent columnists resigning over the scandal. Feldstein has also been accused of accepting money from Qatar as part of a foreign influence operation.  

The leaked document was an internal Hamas communication that was supposed to reveal the group was insincere in reaching a compromise that would bring about a ceasefire. However, one of the recipients of the document, the German tabloid Bild, reportedly distorted the document's content for the benefit of Netanyahu. In Tuesday's second installment of the interview, Feldstein said that, after the misleading Bild story ran, Netanyahu adviser Jonathan Urich texted him and said, "The boss is thrilled."  

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 18:45

Treasury Targets Money Services Businesses In Crackdown On Cartel Money Flows

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Treasury Department has announced a wide-scale enforcement operation targeting more than 100 money services businesses operating along the U.S.–Mexico border, as part of the Trump administration’s campaign to disrupt cartel money laundering through America’s financial system.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the Oval Office of the White House on Nov. 21, 2025. AP Photo/Evan Vucci

The operation, announced on Dec. 22 by the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), focuses on examining money services businesses, or MSBs, operating along the southwest border for potential noncompliance with rules meant to detect money laundering and disrupt illicit finance.

It’s part of the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to combat cartels and other transnational criminal networks whose actions harm U.S. communities and threaten national security.

“At President Trump’s direction, the Treasury Department is utilizing all tools to stop terrorist cartels, drug traffickers, and human smugglers,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.

“This sweeping operation will help root out potential cartel-related money laundering from the U.S. financial system.”

Money services businesses include non-bank financial providers such as currency exchanges, check-cashing firms, and money transmitters.

Treasury officials say those businesses face heightened exposure to illicit finance in border regions, where drug traffickers and smuggling networks seek to move proceeds in small, structured transactions designed to avoid detection.

The new data-driven operation—described by FinCEN as the “first-of-its kind”—was made possible by Treasury’s modernization efforts, including the use of advanced technology to transform fragmented financial information into investigative leads to fight financial crimes more effectively.

The agency said the operation is based on the analysis of more than 1 million currency transaction reports and roughly 87,000 suspicious activity reports submitted by financial institutions.

Using high-performance data processing, the agency is identifying potential compliance failures under the Bank Secrecy Act that could warrant civil penalties, injunctive actions, warning letters, or criminal referrals, it said.

The operation has already produced six notices of investigation, dozens of examination referrals to the IRS, and more than 50 compliance outreach letters, according to the agency.

The move marks an escalation in targeted enforcement of rules meant to combat financial crime, with FinCEN saying that advanced analytics are able generate “reliable decision-grade leads at scale” for regulators and law enforcement to act on.

The Trump administration has increasingly tied financial enforcement to national security, following President Donald Trump’s decision earlier this year to designate several major Mexico-based drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. That designation expanded the government’s authority to freeze assets and pursue sanctions linked to cartel financing.

Enforcement Follows Contested Border Reporting Rules

The latest enforcement sweep builds on a series of geographic targeting orders (GTO) issued earlier this year that lowered cash-transaction reporting thresholds for money service businesses in certain border areas.

In March, FinCEN imposed a temporary order requiring money service businesses in 30 ZIP codes in California and Texas to report cash transactions as small as $200, down from the long-standing $10,000 threshold under the Bank Secrecy Act. That move triggered lawsuits from border-area businesses, which argued the requirement was arbitrary, burdensome, and harmful to legitimate commerce.

In June, a federal judge in Texas granted a temporary restraining order shielding two El Paso-area businesses from enforcement, citing the rule’s geographic design and disproportionate compliance burden.

“The administrative record reflects that the government either failed to consider or offered an unsubstantiated conclusion on at least two important aspects of the problem: (1) there are simple measures that cartel members can take to render the Border GTO completely toothless, and (2) innocent businesses can be profoundly disadvantaged if they are located on the ‘wrong’ side of an El Paso street,” U.S. District Judge Leon Schydlower wrote in a June 24 ruling granting an injunction, which applied only to the plaintiffs and did not halt the policy nationwide.

The Trump administration later allowed the $200 threshold order to expire and replaced it with a modified GTO that raised the reporting floor to $1,000, expanded coverage to parts of Arizona, and extended filing deadlines to ease compliance pressures. That revised order remains in effect through March 2026.

“FinCEN is now issuing a new GTO to target illicit transactions, while mitigating burden on legitimate businesses,” the agency said on Sept. 8, adding that the reissued GTO “will continue to ensure law enforcement can deny individuals and entities associated with these groups access to the U.S. financial system.”

Some civil-liberties advocates and free-market groups have taken a dim view of what they describe as expanded warrantless financial surveillance introduced by the new rules.

“This takes a financial surveillance system that is already enormous and intrusive and burdensome, and it expands that system enormously,” Rob Johnson, senior attorney at the Institute for Justice, told The Epoch Times in an earlier interview.

Nicholas Anthony, a policy analyst at the Cato Institute’s Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, said in a note that the $10,000 threshold for currency transaction reports is long overdue for reform. But he argued that it should be raised—not lowered—to account for inflation.

“Yet, instead, we are seeing a drastic increase in financial surveillance, making the problem even worse,” Anthony wrote.

“Whether it’s the mob or the cartel, organized crime is not an easy thing to deal with.

“However, this challenge does not mean Americans should have their rights stripped away in the pursuit of justice.”

The Treasury did not respond to an earlier request for comment on criticism of the GTO and its lowered reporting threshold. However, in response to one of the lawsuits, government attorneys argued that business-compliance-burden claims were “exaggerated” and that the rule is justified because money service businesses along the southwest border are “particularly vulnerable” to cartel-linked money-laundering abuses.

Kevin Stocklin contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 18:00

What Is Wall Street's Favorite Christmas Song

Every year-end, there are heated debates about what is the "best .... of Christmas", especially among those who work in finance. 

Last year, Home Alone, Die Hard, and Love Actually topped the Christmas movie rankings as polled by the 2025 Deutsche Bank Global Markets Survey. This year, the bank returned to the even more contentious topic of favorite Christmas songs.

At a global level, the bank's 2026 Year Ahead Global Markets Survey found that Wham! won again, while regionally, Mariah Carey took the crown in the US, Asia, and the Rest of the World with All I Want For Christmas is You. The full list is in the report.

For the record, Jim Reid - who compiled and published the survey - writes that his top three would have been Wham!, The Pogues, and Joni Mitchell’s River, a smooth progression from the tacky to the tasteful.

In his last note of the year, Reid also listed his favorite TV series, film, and album of 2025: we except it below (full report here)

• 1. Slow Horses – The best TV series in the world at the moment. Well, until Rivals comes back! I try to model my management technique on Jackson Lamb, if not my personal hygiene.
• 2. Dept Q – A bit like Slow Horses in that it involves a grumpy, rude police boss with a complicated past. He is of course a tortured genius and the show is gripping.
• 3. Blue Lights – A brilliant Northern Ireland police drama on its third series with no drop off in quality and heart.
• 4. Mobland - Helen Mirren and Piers Brosnan do terrible Irish accents in this trashy but fun mob drama. It proved a little light relief when we watched it as Liberation Day rolled through!
• 5. SAS Rogue Heroes – Dramatised true story about an incredible bunch of elite soldiers who seemingly played a big part in the outcome of WW
• 6. The White Lotus – I disliked series 1. Series 2 and now series 3 were great. Not at all like my holidays! Apart from the arguments.
• 7. Karen Pirie – A Scottish police heroine who doesn’t play by the rules but gets results.
• 8. The Newsreader – A homage to the 1980s. Clever Australian program that follows actual global news stories from the period with a fictitious news studio narrative in a period where TV hosts were the anchors of our lives.
• 9. The Studio – Comedies tend not to be very good but this is an exception. Self-deprecating look at the life of a Hollywood studio boss. Seth Rogan plays the character you’d expect him to play. Cringeworthily funny.
• 10. The Beast in Me – Clare Danes gives her usual tour de force and provides all the usual facial expressions to go along with it. A very tense psychological drama. I was a bit scared.
• 11. All Her Fault – Sarah Snook is the magnetic force in this drama about a missing 6 year old boy.
• 12. Black Doves - my wife is not a huge fan of Keira Knightley! So I watched while travelling. Enjoyable nonsense.
• 13. The Diplomat - more enjoyable nonsense I watched while travelling as my wife believed the first series was too absurd to continue with.

Reid's favorite film of the year was "The Ballad of Wallis Island" which was "a life affirming, quirky movie, about a washed up folk pop star who gets booked to do a private gig on a small island at a house of a recluse who won the lottery and bought a place there. It's very good."

His favorite album was Florence and the Machine - Everybody Scream. A dramatic, orchestral, melodic, and confessional mini masterpiece

Finally, for those looking for some light Christmas reading (while escaping from kids or maybe in-laws), DB published its Ultimate Guide to Long-Term Investing (Available to pro subs) which is designed to help everyone put their long-term finances on the firmest footing, which should be a good New Year’s resolution.

More in the full  2026 Year Ahead Global Markets Survey

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 17:15

Waste Of The Day: Superintendent Resigns, Nets Over $900K

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A Long Island school district must pay its superintendent over $907,500 after he resigned without a public explanation this September, according to records obtained by Newsday through a Freedom of Information Law request.

Key facts: The Plainedge Union Free School District paid Edward Salina a $662,352 lump sum for 184 unused sick and personal days and 286.5 unused vacation days.

The district will also pay the remaining $245,185 of Salina’s salary for the 2025-26 school year. The salary is paid in bi-weekly installments, which will end if Salina takes a job at another school, Newsday reported.

Salina’s contract gave him 35 vacation days, 14 sick days and three personal days per year. Unused days were carried over to the next year with no limit.

Waste of the Day 12.23.25 Open the Books

He resigned abruptly on Sept. 12, two weeks into the current school year. The reason remains unknown. He had been superintendent since 2011, and his contract was set to expire in 2029.

“What is paid is basically contractual,” school board president Joseph Beyrouty told Newsday. “There's nothing more to it than that.”

The school district is paying District Wise Search Consultants to lead the search for a new superintendent, according to Newsday. The dollar cost is unknown, but District Wise received $261,000 from several Long Island districts since 2020, including $23,000 each from four other Long Island school districts in 2023 for their superintendent searches, according to Open the Books’ data.

Interim Superintendent Carol Muscarella is earning $1,200 per day but will not hold the job permanently, according to Newsday.

“It's just to basically keep the lights on and the employees paid. And I think she's done a phenomenal job with that,” Beyrouty said. “As a matter of fact, I think she's even gone above and beyond that and really helped tackle some issues that have come up along the way.”

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com. 

Background: The Plainedge school district had a $50.6 million payroll in 2024, according to Open the Books’ database. Seven employees, including Salina, made more than $200,000. An additional 292 people made $100,000 or more. 

Summary: It’s questionable whether any public employee should receive nearly $1 million in a single year, but paying one who is no longer working and gave no explanation for their departure is especially alarming.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 16:30

Lies My Liberal Teacher Told Me About Christmas

It's almost as much a Christmas tradition as eggnog and Rankin/Bass - The political left's propaganda disparaging Noel appears like clockwork every December.  The season inevitably triggers progressives into rantings and ravings about the "white supremacist" evils of western culture, Christianity and the need for a more "secular" or "multicultural" form of celebration.  In other words, Christians aren't allowed to have their own holidays. 

Protected holidays are only reserved for cultures with spicy foods and child marriage.

And, if you went to a public school in the west in the past few decades you probably dealt with multiple liberal teachers who regaled you with their "profound insights" on the "true history" of western holiday traditions.  The problem is, most of what these teachers tell their students is a lie based on generations of carefully crafted political narratives.

The disinformation campaigns against Christmas have been so effective in the past that there are even groups of Christians that actually believe the same nonsense and repeat it as if they have discovered some fantastic conspiratorial secrets that only "true Christians" know.

Let's examine some of these lies and why they are historically inaccurate...

Lie #1: Christmas Is A Pagan Holiday?

Utterly false in every way, but many western students have heard this claim thousands of times over and AI chatbots continue to spread the fallacy today.  The idea comes from the incorrect claim that Christmas is an artificial amalgamation of traditions stolen from pagan events like Saturnalia and the Roman Solis Festival as a way to convert the heathens centuries ago.

Saturnalia was held on Dec 17, not Dec 25, and focused on animal sacrifices and a loosening of moral rules. Christmas was started as a completely separate tradition with separate beliefs and a Christian message. 

The Roman Solis Festival was created a century after Christians began celebrating December 25th as the birth of Christ.  Surviving Roman records from Hyppolytus mention Christmas as early as 200AD.  Hippolytus of Rome (c. 170–235 AD) is widely regarded by modern scholars as the earliest known Christian writer to effectively calculate the birth of Jesus as December 25th.  

The earliest calendar record of the pagan Solis Festival was 354AD, over 150 years later.  It was created by Roman Emperor Aurelian, who was a pagan hostile to the spread of Christianity.  He sought to co-opt or compete with Christian celebrations, rather than Christians trying to co-opt paganism.

Lie #2:  The Birth Date Of December 25th For Jesus Is Completely Made Up?     

The date of December 25th for the birth of Jesus was a deduction from scripture, analyzed in conjunction with historical knowledge about those who worked in the temple.

St. Luke related the announcement of the birth of St. John the Baptist to his elderly parents, St. Zechariah and St. Elizabeth.  St. Zechariah was a priest of the class of Abijah (Lk 1:5), the eighth class of 24 priestly classes (Neh 12:17).  Each class served one week in the temple, twice a year.  Josef Heinrich Friedlieb has established that the priestly class of Abijah would have been on duty during the second week of the Jewish month Tishri, the week of the Day of Atonement or in our calendar, between Sept. 22 and 30.

While on duty, the Archangel Gabriel informed Zechariah that he and Elizabeth would have a son (Lk 1:5-24). Thereupon, they conceived John, who after presumably 40 weeks in the womb would have been born at the end of June.  For this reason, Christians celebrate the Nativity of St. John the Baptist June 24. 

St. Luke also recorded how the Archangel Gabriel told Mary that Elizabeth was six months pregnant with John (Lk 1:36), which means the Annunciation occurred March 25. Nine months from March 25, or six months from June 24, renders the birth of Christ at Dec. 25 - Christmas.

Modern scholars support Hippolytus in his calculations of December 25th.  Whether someone believes in the bible or not, the point remains that the date for Christmas was not pulled from thin air or adapted over time to "co-opt pagan traditions."

Lie #3:  Mary And Joseph Were "Illegal Immigrants"?

This false claim has resurfaced recently in the wake of mass deportations of illegals in the US, and it comes from people who apparently have no knowledge of biblical history.

Mary and Joseph fled Judea for Egypt at a time when both were controlled regions of the Roman Empire.  Therefore, they did not immigrate, let alone immigrate illegally.  They were both considered subjects of Rome and remained within the Roman Empire as they traveled.     

Lie #4:  St. Nicholas Was A Third Worlder? 

In the process of woke activists trying to make everything black and brown, Santa Claus seems to be one of their favorite targets for race swapping.  Leftists argue that St. Nicholas was born in Turkey, and thus, he must have been heavily melanated. 

St. Nicholas was born in Turkey, but he was born to wealthy Greek parents in 270 AD in a Greek colony at a time when the Levant was controlled by the Roman Empire.  The creation of Islam and the Muslim invasions did not happen for another 350 years, meaning, most of the region was fair skinned or "olive skinned".  By today's woke diversity totem pole standards, St. Nicholas would be considered a white guy with a tan. 

All records of Nicholas of Myra's life show widespread reverence for his charity, which led to his eventual sainthood (granted 100 years after his death) and the celebration of his achievements for centuries.   

Lie #5:  Jesus Was Not A Real Historic Person?

Historic accounts say otherwise, including records from the Romans who saw Jesus as a reactionary enemy.  Roman historian Tacitus (c. 116 AD) mentions "Christus" executed under Pilate, and Jewish historian Josephus (c. 93 AD) also refers to Jesus, both confirming Jesus's existence and execution by Romans for followers who called him Messiah, thus supporting the record of events described in the Bible.

Lie #6:  There Is No Leftist War On Christmas?

The greatest trick the devil ever played was convincing people that he doesn't exist.  Yes, there absolutely is a war on Christmas.  One of the root foundations of Marxism/Communism is the crusade to erase religion as a competing ideological fount, and woke leftists are indeed communists.  Karl Marx particularly despised Christianity and argued that:

“The social principles of Christianity preach cowardice, self-contempt, abasement, submission, humility, in a word all the qualities of the canaille (lower class people).”

Of course, Christianity doesn't preach any of these things in the way Marx claimed, but communists see Christianity as an obstacle to their collectivist revolution because it preaches reverence to God above government and asserts that rights are inherent rather than being privileges granted by government.  In other words, erasing Christianity is an important step in building a communist empire where the state becomes god. 

The political left will argue that their incessant demands for more "secular" holiday celebrations are designed to make immigrants feel more included, but they don't make similar demands for any other religious traditions.  It is interesting that Christianity is the only religion that is consistently targeted and Christmas is the only religious celebration consistently forced to accommodate other belief systems. 

Liberal teachers have been training children for decades to hate Christianity and to view Christmas as a sham.  This is not the behavior of a political group at peace.  It is the behavior of a psy-op, a war campaign to demoralize their enemies.            

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 15:45

The Evolution Of The Candy Cane

Authored by Dean George via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Candy canes have been associated with Christmas for centuries, but their origins and early history are shrouded in legend, folklore and fantasy.

The 2019 Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade featured a candy cane float. Public Domain

The sweet and sticky candy first became associated with Christmas in Germany in the 17th century, though the name, color and flavor were markedly different from contemporary candy canes. Originally, they were called sugar sticks. They were pure white in color, had no peppermint flavor, and weren’t “J” shaped. 

The popularity of sugar sticks eventually spread to other European countries like France and England. Because sugar was often unavailable, sugar sticks were often flavored with sweet essences from plants. Sugar sticks were handmade in small batches and given as seasonal gifts to children, family, and friends. 

Candy canes were first made by hand out of sugar syrup using the same hammering and rolling methods that are used in glasswork. Belbury/CC BY-SA 2.0

European immigrants coming to America in the 19th century brought their old-world recipes with them. Eventually, sugar sticks became part of this country’s Christmas celebrations.

European Folklore and Religious Symbolism

A common but unsubstantiated legend says that around 1670, a German choirmaster in Cologne gave children performing in Nativity reenactments sugar sticks to keep them quiet and attentive. A similar tale says that when some church members objected to children eating candy in church, the choirmaster commissioned a confectioner to shape the sugar sticks like shepherd’s crooks to symbolize the Biblical shepherds tending their flocks near Bethlehem, where Jesus was born. 

Modern day legends attributed more to religious symbolism. Some tales say that when turned upside down, the candy crook is shaped like a “J” and stands for Jesus. Another tale implies the candied crook represents a shepherd’s crook and is symbolic of Jesus, the Good Shepherd.

One popular myth is that an Indiana candymaker crafted the Christmas candy cane to symbolize the birth, ministry, and death of Jesus Christ. The white color represents the purity of the Virgin Mary and Christ’s perfection. The thin red stripes denote Jesus’ scourging before he was crucified, and the large red stripe symbolizes the blood Christ shed on the cross. These anecdotes are intriguing but lack any historical documentation to prove their veracity. 

More likely is the idea that German families used the hook in the original candy stick to facilitate using it as a Christmas ornament alongside fruit, nuts, candies, cookies, and paper decorations.

Regardless of their varied origin stories, striped candy canes are now ubiquitous in the Christmas season. Anrie/CC BY-SA 2.0 When Sugar Sticks Became Candy Canes

German-Swedish immigrant August Imgard is the first documented case in North America of using the sweet treat as a tree ornament. On Christmas Day, 1847 he introduced this interesting “twist” on sugar sticks when he decorated a blue spruce tree in Wooster, Ohio as part of his family’s Christmas celebration. 

By the 1860s, the term “candy canes” was appearing in publications like Ballou’s Monthly Magazine. They were described as being hung up next to stockings. In 1871, German immigrant Claus Doscher founded Doscher’s Candies, America’s oldest candy cane maker, which was featured in American Essence magazine. Remarkably, the Doscher’s candy canes are still handmade. 

Each candy cane at Doscher’s Candies is hooked by hand. Courtesy of Greg Clark

The candy cane’s famous red stripes and peppermint flavoring were believed to be added sometime around the turn of the 20th century, according to the National Confectioners Association. 

In 1919, entrepreneur Bob McCormack founded the Famous Candy Company in Albany, Georgia. Within a few years, the company was producing thousands of handmade candy canes annually under the name Bob’s Candy Company (later changed to Bobs Candies). Later, in the 1950s, the Georgia company became the largest maker of candy canes and the first to wrap their candies in cellophane and mass distribute them.

In the 1950s, Gregory Keller, a Roman Catholic priest and McCormack’s brother-in-law, invented a machine that automated candy cane production, greatly reducing production time and labor costs. A patent request for the “Keller Machine” was submitted in 1957 and approved in 1960; it allowed Bobs Candies to produce millions of candy canes annually. Bobs candy canes are still made today, though the McCormack family sold the company to larger candy conglomerates in 2005.

Contemporary Candy Cane Options

The traditional red and white peppermint-flavored candy canes still dominate the market, but novel options in recent years have included fruit-based flavors and odder flavor choices for candies, like bacon, pickle and jalapeño. New textural options include chewy and liquid-filled canes with a juice-infused center.

Candy canes are now seen at other holidays also. There areheart-shaped candy canes for Valentine’s Day and orange and black candy canes at Halloween.

Traditionalists need not worry, though. The National Confectioners Association notes that 90 percent of candy canes are sold between Thanksgiving and Christmas; the second week of December is the biggest single week for candy cane sales annually; 1.76 billion candy canes are sold annually in the United States; candy canes are the number one-selling non-chocolate candy in December, and December 26th is National Candy Cane Day. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 15:00

Largest Acquisition In Nvidia History: Jensen Pays $20BN For AI Chip Startup In Bid For Google's TPU Tech

Just before the market close on Friday, Nvidia unveiled its largest ever acquisition (which however was structured as a licensing deal to avoid anti-trust concerns) when it agreed to buy Groq - pardon license all of Grok's assets and acquire its entire executive team - a designer of high-performance artificial intelligence accelerator chips, for $20 billion in cash. In reality what the deal is really about is Grok's TPU expertise, and specifically the knowledge inside CEO Jonathan Ross' head, who helped launch Google's TPU, the search giant's custom Application-Specific Integrated Circuit. 

Jonathan Ross, chief executive officer of Groq 

The news was first reported by CNBC, citing Alex Davis, CEO of Disruptive, which led the startup’s latest financing round in September. Davis, whose firm has invested more than half a billion dollars in Groq since the company was founded in 2016, said the deal came together quickly (that part is true: the deal likely came together in the days following the recent dramatic ascent of Google's Gemini and TPU architecture, not to mention stock price, as explained below).

Groq raised $750 million at a valuation of about $6.9 billion in September. Investors in the round included Blackrock and Neuberger Berman, as well as Samsung, Cisco, Altimeter and 1789 Capital (where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner). Groq said at the time it would use the funds to expand its data center capacity. Instead, the participating funds are about to 3x their money in 3 months, an unprecedented venture return, thanks to Nvidia's massive cash hoard.

Groq said in a blog post on Wednesday that it’s “entered into a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Nvidia for Groq’s inference technology,” without disclosing a price. Clearly, however, this is much more than just a licensing agreement since Groq founder and CEO Jonathan Ross along with Sunny Madra, the company’s president, and other senior leaders “will join Nvidia to help advance and scale the licensed technology,” the post said.

As Bloomberg explains, sharing a slightly different perspective on how the deal is structured or rather wants to be structured, the world’s largest publicly traded company paid for the right to use Groq’s technology and will integrate its chip design into future products. Some of the startup’s executives are leaving to join Nvidia to help with that effort, the companies said.

Groq will continue as an independent company with a new chief executive, existing finance chief Simon Edwards as CEO, it said Wednesday in a post on its website, which of course it will only pretend to be for regulatory and anti-trust reasons: Nvidia will have stripped all the good stuff, i.e., the TPU IP. It’s data center business, which offers outsourced computing, will continue, the company said in the post. 

Davis told CNBC that Nvidia is getting all of Groq’s assets, though its nascent Groq cloud business is not part of the transaction. Groq said “GroqCloud will continue to operate without interruption.”

The deal represents by far Nvidia’s largest purchase ever. The chipmaker’s biggest acquisition to date came in 2019, when it bought Israeli chip designer Mellanox for close to $7 billion. At the end of October, Nvidia had $60.6 billion in cash and short-term investments, up from $13.3 billion in early 2023. 

In an email to employees that was obtained by CNBC, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the agreement will expand Nvidia’s capabilities.

“We plan to integrate Groq’s low-latency processors into the NVIDIA AI factory architecture, extending the platform to serve an even broader range of AI inference and real-time workloads,” Huang wrote, revealing the deal rationale. 

Groq has been targeting revenue of $500 million this year amid booming demand for AI accelerator chips used in speeding up the process for large language models to complete inference-related tasks. The company was not pursuing a sale when it was approached by Nvidia, Davis said. While it is unclear what is the actual LTM revenue, the acquisition represents a 40x multiple of its "targeted" sales... so do the math. 

So what is the reason for the deal? Well, as we explained in "The Google TPU: The Chip Made For The AI Inference Era", in recent months Nvidia and its GPU architecture has lost momentum to Google and its TPU, which as noted above, is the "chip made for the inference era." And so, instead of developing its own Tensor architecture, Nvidia decided to just buy it. Or rather, it pretends not to buy it as regulators may just kill the deal, which instead was structured as an asset-purchase/licensing deal. 

And the punchline: Groq was founded in 2016 by a group of former engineers, including CEO Ross. Ross is a former Google chip executive who helped start that company’s Tensor Processing Unit, or TPU, the search giant’s custom chip that’s being used by some companies as an alternative to Nvidia’s graphics processing units. As part of the deal, he and other top executives will join Nvidia “to help advance and scale the licensed technology,” Groq said in the statement. 

In its initial filing with the SEC, announcing a $10.3 million fundraising in late 2016, Groq listed as principals Ross and Douglas Wightman, an entrepreneur and former engineer at the Google X “moonshot factory.” Wightman left Groq in 2019, according to his LinkedIn profile. 

Huang added that, “While we are adding talented employees to our ranks and licensing Groq’s IP, we are not acquiring Groq as a company.” Narrator: you are.

Nvidia has ramped up its investments in chip startups and the broader ecosystem as its cash pile has mounted. The company has backed AI and energy infrastructure company Crusoe, AI model developer Cohere, and boosted its investment in CoreWeave as the AI-centric cloud provider was getting ready to go public this year.

In September, Nvidia said it intended to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, with the startup committed to deploying at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia products. The companies have yet to announce a formal deal. That same month, Nvidia said it would invest $5 billion in Intel as part of a partnership.

Nvidia has been making investments in companies across the AI infrastructure ecosystem and is trying to keep a large lead in the market for inference — running models once they have been developed. The company’s leadership has already pledged billions to a wide variety of projects that it believes will further the overall AI industry. Nvidia agreed to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI and has even bought a stake in erstwhile nemesis Intel Corp.

By incorporating a new type of design into what it sells, Nvidia is showing willingness to be flexible and add novel capabilities. That approach is likely aimed at keeping its biggest customers and new adopters focused on its technology at a time when in-house efforts from Google, Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. are gaining momentum as the industry rushes to install as much computing capacity as quickly as it can.

With today's purchase, pardon, "licensing deal", Nvidia has formally lobbed its response to Google's recent ascent with its Ironwood TPU and Gemini AI, which saw a dramatic divergence in the Google vs Nvidia ecosystems (chart below).  The question now is will Google issue its own "code red" and pull every string in its power to kill the deal, or will it respond even more forcefully. One thing is certain: if Nvidia has now successfully caught up to Google and its TPU technology, the alligator jaws of the Google vs OpenAI/Nvidia chart are about to slam shut.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 14:54

'There Is Nothing To Celebrate': Gaza's Christians Mark Somber Christmas Amid Fragile Truce

Via Middle East Eye

Youssef Tarazi, a Palestinian Christian in Gaza, says the giant Christmas tree that once stood as a symbol of communal celebration will not be lit this year. For a third consecutive year, Gaza's Christian community says they will be observing Christmas without public celebrations, as Israel's alleged repeated ceasefire violations and restrictions on humanitarian aid entering the enclave continue to cast a shadow over the holiday.

"Churches have suspended all celebrations outside their walls because of the conditions Gaza is going through," Tarazi, 31, told Middle East Eye. "We are marking the birth of Jesus Christ through prayer inside the church only, but our joy remains incomplete".

Palestinian Orthodox Christians will observe Christmas on January 7 according to the pre-Gregorian calendar, while Catholics are celebrating on Dec. 25.

Before the war, churches across Gaza transformed their courtyards into gathering spaces, decorated streets with festive lights and hosted carols that brought families together. 

Muslims often joined Christian neighbors to mark the occasion, including the annual lighting of a large Christmas tree in Gaza City. "This year, we cannot celebrate while we are still grieving for those killed, including during attacks on churches," Tarazi said.

"Nothing feels the same anymore. Many members of our community will not be with us this Christmas".

George Anton, the director of operations at the Latin patriarchate in Gaza and head of its emergency committee, echoed those sentiments. "We cannot celebrate while Christians and Muslims alike are mourning devastating losses caused by the war," Anton told MEE. "For us, the war has not ended".

Anton said churches are limiting observances to prayers and a nativity scene inside church buildings. "In the past, we decorated our homes. Now, many homes are gone. We decorated the streets. Even the streets are gone," he said. "There is nothing to celebrate".

Since October 2023, Gaza's Christian homes, schools and churches have been damaged or destroyed during Israeli military operations. Three historic churches - Church of Saint Porphyrius, the Holy Family Church and the Gaza Baptist Church - have suffered severe damage.

Anton said at least 53 Christians have been killed directly or indirectly during the war, with many others injured. "Some were killed in air strikes, while others died because we could not reach hospitals or provide medicine, especially elderly people with chronic illnesses," he said.

Determined to stay

This Christmas comes amid what church leaders describe as the smallest Christian population Gaza has seen in decades.

More than 400 Christians have left Gaza during the war, fearing for their lives after relatives and friends were killed. Today, an estimated 220 Christian families - around 580 people - remain in the strip. "Those of us who remain are determined to stay," Anton said, while acknowledging that worsening humanitarian conditions may force more families to leave in search of medical care and stability.

For the last two years, Nazareth, the hometown of Jesus Christ, has not been able to properly celebrate Christmas. Due to the war in Gaza, there has not been a tree in the village square, and the Christmas market has not been open.https://t.co/KVVHKLfgbr

— Crux (@Crux) December 22, 2025

Around 70 percent of Gaza's Christians belong to the Greek Orthodox Church, with the remainder Latin Catholics. "The situation affects everyone - Christians and Muslims alike," Anton said. "We are part of this society, and what happens to Gaza happens to us".

On October 20 2023, less than two weeks into the war, Israeli strikes hit the Church of Saint Porphyrius complex, killing at least 16 people who had sought refuge there. The church is one of the oldest in the world, built on a site used for Christian worship since the fifth century.

In another attack on 17 July, Israeli fire struck Gaza's only Catholic church, killing two women and injuring several others, including the parish priest. "All Palestinians, including the Christian community, are still living with the consequences of the war," Anton said. "We are grieving, frustrated and unstable. We cannot celebrate as if nothing has happened".

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 13:30

From Snowflakes To Raindrops: The Decline Of White Christmas

The magic of a white Christmas - snowflakes dusting city streets and children sledding under twinkling lights - is firmly rooted in the collective imagination, whether in Northern America or Europe.

But what are the actual chances of having a white Christmas?

As Statista's Tristan Gaudiaut details below, according to meteorological service data published by various media reports, there is a significant decline in the likelihood of waking up to snow on December 25 around the world.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Over the last few decades, the tendency for winter precipitation to occur more often in the form of rain, some cities in the Northern Hemisphere are now experiencing white Christmases about half as often as they did in the mid-20th century.

In North America, where a white Christmas is defined as at least 2 cm (1 inch) of snow cover, Montreal is known to be a winter wonderland, with snow recorded 79 percent of the time on December 25 between 1955 and 1989.

Nowadays, the largest city in the province of Quebec sees snow the same day around 68 percent of the time (1990-2024), a drop of 15 percentage points.

A little further south, in the United States, Chicagoans could once expect a snowy Christmas nearly one in two years (47 percent in 1955-1989), but now just face a 35 percent chance (1990-2024), while New Yorkers' odds have fallen from around 18 percent to 12 percent over the same period (-33 percent).

Across the Atlantic, data collected in Germany reveals a similar story.

Munich, famed for its fairy-tale Christmas markets dusted in snow, has seen its white Christmas probability (defined in Europe as at least 1 cm of snow cover) decrease from 47 percent in 1955-1989 to around 20 percent since 1990, a drop of more than 50 percent.

Berlin, less of a snow guarantee, has gone on its side from over a one-in-four chance (29 percent) to just under one-in-five (18 percent), with the last white Christmas dating back to 2010.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 12:45

FBI Raided Secret Service Agent's Home In Charity Tax Fraud Probe

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

The FBI recently raided the home of a Secret Service agent on Vice President JD Vance’s detail in an alleged tax and wire fraud case involving millions of dollars in donations and grants.

In the alleged scheme, the agent accepted donations to a charity that purports to help inner-city youth and victims of domestic violence but didn’t provide the services it reported to the IRS, according to several knowledgeable sources in the Secret Service community.

The raid, which took place on or around Dec. 8, was the culmination of more than a year of work by a joint FBI-IRS investigation that the Secret Service joined in recent months, the sources said. Federal investigators have interviewed more than a dozen Secret Service agents, some of whom contributed to the nonprofit at the center of the probe, which is run by an agent on Vance’s detail.

The Secret Service has placed the agent on unpaid administrative leave and suspended his security clearance, signs that the agency considers the potential crimes and misconduct extremely serious, even though the individual has not been arrested, according to sources familiar with the matter.

RealClearPolitics has reached out to the USSS and has been told a statement is forthcoming.

The alleged fraud could further bruise the Secret Service, which is facing retention problems as it struggles to regain its once elite reputation after two Trump assassination attempts last year. In addition to potential criminal prosecution, the Secret Service agent could face internal insider threat allegations for demonstrating poor judgment and possible criminal intent.

“This is bigger than the 2012 prostitution scandal because agents are trained to investigate tax and bank wire fraud – anyone involved knew what they were doing was illegal,” one source remarked.

In 2012, more than a dozen Secret Service agents and other personnel were placed on administrative leave, and several were eventually fired after their superiors discovered they had hired prostitutes during a trip to Colombia to prepare for then-President Obama’s visit to the Summit of the Americas.

The agent whose home was raided is listed as the founder and chairman of the charity’s board of directors on tax documents filed with the IRS.

The charity in question purports to provide laptops to young inner-city youth in its “Laptops for Hope Program” – at least some of which are laptops donated by the Secret Service because they are beyond their warranties, according to knowledgeable sources. Investigators, however, are looking into whether laptops discovered in the basement of the agent’s home were ever donated to the youth or whether there were plans to do so.  

In tax documents, the charity states that its mission is to provide “emergency assistance to survivors of domestic violence, financial literacy, preventing childhood obesity, & [stet] supporting families affected by HIV/AIDS in VA, MD, DC, & GA.”

The alleged tax and wire fraud schemes could implicate numerous Secret Service agents and employees, some of whom allegedly donated to the charity and then received part of their donation back in a payment. Investigators are looking into whether the donations allowed the Secret Service agents to file deductions and write off numerous work-related expenses, the sources said.

The charity has been operating since 2022, receiving $351,329 in contributions and grants in its first year while paying just $23,000 in salaries, tax documents show. In 2023, contributions and grants shot up to $806,409, and the nonprofit paid its officers a total of $154,590. Those numbers increased to $979,053 in contributions and grants in 2024, the latest tax document available. That year, the charity reported paying $267,221 in salaries.  

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 12:00

COVID Christmas: Never Forget

Yes, it's been five years.

Yes, it's the season of joy and forgiveness, blah blah blah.

But, fuck that!

In 2020, while the sheeple huddled in fear-porn isolation, a cabal of power-hungry bureaucrats and pharma-shilling "experts" pulled off the greatest heist in modern history: they stole Christmas.

Not with guns or tanks, but with "emergency decrees," arbitrary lockdowns, and endless streams of hysterical propaganda about a virus with a 99.7% survival rate for most.

Across the West, authoritarian governors and health czars like California's Gavin Newsom and New York's Andrew Cuomo played Grinch-in-Chief.

Family gatherings? Banned.

Churches closed on the holiest night of the year, while big-box retailers like Walmart raked in billions—essential, you see.

Travel restrictions grounded flights, borders slammed shut, and millions faced solitary holidays, Zoom "celebrations" replacing real human connection.

In the UK, Boris Johnson's last-minute Tier 4 lockdown crushed plans for millions, proving politicians love nothing more than moving goalposts.

And to ensure we don't forget (or forgive) those that imposed such a farce upon so many, Martin Armstrong dug up some images as a reminder...

The economic carnage was deliberate: small businesses gutted, restaurants shuttered, while Amazon's Jeff Bezos laughed all the way to his yacht.

Fauci the Flip-Flopper pontificated from his ivory tower, warning against singing carols or hugging grandma, as if seasonal joy itself was a superspreader event.

This wasn't public health - it was social engineering on steroids.

Fear was the weapon, compliance the goal.

The tyrants wrapped their theft in "science" bows, but the data later exposed the scam: excess deaths from despair, suicides, delayed treatments far outweighed their "saved" lives narrative.

Five years on, the damage lingers: fractured families, eroded trust, and a precedent for endless control.

Christmas 2020 wasn't just stolen - it was sacrificed on the altar of technocratic tyranny.

Never forget: they hated the Whos down in Whoville, and they'll do it again given half a chance.

Never Again!

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 11:15

Intensifying Shortage: This Is What A Run On The London Silver Market Looks Like

Authored by David Jensen via Substack,

Dutch trading specialist Karel Mercx posted the following commentary where the opposite (multiply by -1) of the silver swap rate minus US interest rates can be used as a proxy for the implied silver lease rate to determine physical shortage in the London silver market.:

“The 1-year silver swap minus the US interest rate is now –7.18%.

That distortion explains why the silver rally is not over.

Only at the red line do supply and demand normalize.”

A further six days ago Mercx posted the following commentary:

“ The 1-year silver swap minus the US interest rate is now almost –7%! That distortion is the key reason the silver rally is not over.

That spread should be positive, since silver needed in one year comes with storage, insurance, and financing costs.

Extra explanation.

The silver swap rate is a crucial part of the global precious-metals trade. It exists because major players such as banks, producers, industrial users, and investors constantly exchange silver for dollars without physically moving metal from vault to vault. This mechanism keeps the London physical market tightly connected to the New York financial market.

But that system is now under strain. Physical silver today is almost 7% more expensive than silver for delivery one year from now. Swaps were designed to avoid shipping metal around the world, yet today silver is being moved because buyers are demanding delivery.

Holding physical silver isn’t easy or cheap.

A $1 million position weighs several hundred kilograms, spread across dozens of heavy bars that require vault space, insurance, and security…

…That question is now being priced in. As long as the 1-year silver swap minus US rates remains below the red line, silver’s upside pressure continues. No one knows where supply and demand will reconnect. … ”

I’ve added a trend arrow to the chart that Mercx posted:

Figure 1 - One Year Silver Swaps Minus One Year One Year US Interest Rates at Dec 23, 2025; source: Karel Mercx x.com

Note that the distance from the red line normalization is increasing as the London silver shortage intensifies. The London silver market is devolving, not stabilizing.

[ZH: the spread between SHFE and COMEX silver futures is extreme to say the least - incentivizing the flow from London to Shanghai]...

This is what a run on the London ‘physical’ silver market looks like where holders of unallocated promissory notes for silver ownership and delivery, at the margins, start to demand physical metal delivery.

The enormous leverage of London paper (vapor) claims vs physical silver available for delivery gives the potential for a very quick unwind of London.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 10:30

Arab Nonprofit Stirs Pot With Times Square Ad On Christianity's Holiest Day

On the holiest day of the Christian calendar, the nonprofit Arab-American Anti-Discrimination Committee (ADC) purchased a gigantic Times Square advertisement in New York City declaring, "Jesus is Palestinian." This inflammatory and divisive rhetoric is nothing more than an attempt by the Arab nonprofit to stir up the Christian nation with their own narrative.

Adeb Ayoub, National Executive Director of ADC, told The New York Post that the nonprofit has been renting ad space in Times Square this year, with rotating weekly messages.

"There's a lot more similarities between Arabs and Muslims and Christians in this country than others want to allow us to believe and there are similarities and there is a fear of culture, shared religion," Ayoub said.

NYPost's report continued:

"Most of the Americans in this country are Christian and the birthplace of Christianity is Palestine. If people wanna go back and forth and debate it, then great, the billboard sparked debate. At least you're having a conversation about it. Otherwise, we're silenced and our voices and positions don't come out."

When asked whether his group is disputing that Jesus was Jewish, Ayoub said that "Jesus lives within all of us" and that the subject was "up for interpretation."

He added that Jewish groups he claims have waged a digital war against him since the Spring are free to promote their own views about Jesus.

Based on publicly available records, Adeb Ayoub appears to be affiliated with the United Mission for Relief and Development (UMR), which has a significant focus on Palestine. He also has links to "Liberation Legal" ... 

Earlier this year, ADC hosted ArabCon 2025, the nation's largest annual convention of Arab Americans, in Deaborne, Michigan, which hosted anti-Israel activist Linda Sarsour and China-linked Medea Benjamin of CodePink, among others.

Ahead of ArabCon, ADC wrote on their website, "Recent attempts to smear the organization and our upcoming conference deploy the same racist and tired playbook meant to intimidate and shame Arab and Muslim spaces– branding ArabCon with inflammatory labels like 'pro‑terrorism' and 'antisemitic.'"

Ayoub told NYPost that a new billboard will appear in Times Square for New Year's Eve... 

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/25/2025 - 09:55