Hock Tan Warns AI Investors Are Gambling In A Casino... Whose Chips His Own Credit Is Paying For

Usually it's the chip CEOs who are the cheerleaders and the bond market that plays the skeptic. On Monday, the CEO of the second-most important AI chipmaker on the planet decided to play both roles.

Speaking on a panel at a DBS conference in Singapore, Broadcom boss Hock Tan said that many of the investors piling into AI behave more like gamblers than investors, setting extreme expectations only to discover they are effectively sitting at a casino table. In his own words, "a lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in."

He didn't stop there. Tan also questioned the long-term economics of the money-losing frontier labs, and, most importantly for markets, warned that insufficient capital could become the next constraint on the AI industry's growth. As if to make his point for him, Intel's Lip-Bu Tan, who shared the panel, said hardware will stay in short supply for another two to three years. Translation: the chips will be scarce, and so will the money to pay for them.

Semis did not take it well. The SOXX slumped 2.6% and JPMorgan's AI memory basket tumbled 4.3% on a day when more than 60% of S&P members actually rose. Asked to explain the selling, JPMorgan tech specialist Joshua Meyers wrote in the bank's afternoon Market Intel briefing (available to pro subs) that "the most proximate reason seems to be Hock Tan's participation in a panel at a DBS conference in Singapore, where he warned financing could become a bigger bottleneck than component shortages (in addition to questioning frontier lab business models, and comparing 'many investors' to casino gamblers)."

Below we look at why Tan is right about the bottleneck, and why the people he called gamblers are the ones keeping his stock afloat while his own bondholders head for the exits.

The Bottleneck Is Money

Tan's warning will come as no surprise to (even not so regular) readers: we have been warning since last October that the AI buildout runs on ever increasing amounts of debt, and last week Goldman's Rich Privorotsky effectively conceded the point when he said the AI borrowing binge is now crowding out everyone else in the capital markets.

The evidence has been piling up. Last Thursday, Nvidia-backed Australian data center operator Firmus first slashed the price of its IPO by 25% and then pulled its $5.5 billion listing altogether, opting to raise money in private markets instead (good luck with finding someone dumb enough there). Our reaction at the time:

*FIRMUS DECIDED TO WITHDRAW APPLICATION TO LIST ON ASX *FIRMUS NOW PURSUE CAPITAL FROM PRIVATE MARKETS Bring on the Apollo life insurance policies

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 8, 2026

And Tan wasn't the only one at the DBS event flagging it: just before he took the stage, DBS CEO Tan Su Shan said the market is now repricing the risks around AI financing after the heavy investment of the past two years. When the bank hosting the conference and the chipmaker on the panel agree that the money is the problem, it's probably the money.

The Customer Is Losing Money... And Broadcom Is Lending It

Then there is the swipe at the frontier labs. Tan said OpenAI's $50 billion annualized revenue as of September suggests there is a viable business, but that the company is still losing money because it spends so much on training and compute, so for now the number tells you little about long-term profitability.

Fair enough. Except that OpenAI is Broadcom's customer, and on top of it, courtesy of SPV structures that would make Jeff Skilling blush, Broadcom is the one arranging the money for OpenAI to buy Broadcom's chips (you may get a little nauseous after reading that).

As we detailed last Thursday, Broadcom is in talks on a $50 billion+ chip financing for OpenAI (Bloomberg puts the next leg at closer to $30 billion), on top of the $60 billion it is syndicating for Anthropic and the $35 billion "Big Sky" platform it set up with Apollo and Blackstone in June. That's roughly $145 billion of chip debt with Broadcom's name on it, or as we put it when we tweeted this chart, "$300BN in chip-collateralized SPVs, so far":

In other words, the CEO questioning the labs' business models is also the biggest single lender to those business models! Over the weekend, Jefferies went even further, warning of "massive capital destruction" since just two cash-burning labs account for half of a $2.3 trillion backlog.

And last week's FT report that OpenAI's run-rate was ~$50 billion rather than the widely cited ~$70 billion, which Goldman's TMT desk chalked up to gross-vs-net accounting, showed just how much of a ~$1 trillion equity complex rests on largely made up and unaudited numbers from two private companies.

Gamblers Hold The Stock, Bondholders Hold The Bag

Which brings us to the irony. Tan may sneer at the "casino" crowd, but the casino is the only thing propping up AVGO. Per Goldman's derivatives desk, Mag7 is now ~22% of total US prime exposure (the most since early 2022), semis exposure has doubled to ~12% from ~6% at the start of the year, and roughly $115 billion sits in levered semis ETFs. JPMorgan's factor team adds that semiconductor sentiment is back above the 99th percentile. Those are the real gamblers.

Broadcom's creditors, meanwhile, are folding. The moment Broadcom's Anthropic financing hit the tape, we said what would happen next:

*BROADCOM AMASSING $60 BILLION TO FUND CHIPS FOR ANTHROPIC CDS gonna fly tomorrow

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2026

It took about 12 hours for Broadcom bonds to hit all-time lows. And it has been one-way traffic since August, when Broadcom's CDS exploded after it emerged that the company was seeking up to $100 billion in an off-balance sheet SPV.

Back then, 5Y CDS hit a record 122bp. After a brief September reprieve, the Anthropic and OpenAI financings sent it right back up: according to Goldman's TMT specialist sales desk (available to pro subs), Broadcom's 5Y CDS printed a record 136bp last Thursday, alongside Oracle at a record 261bp, as nearly $500 billion of 2026 AI borrowing gets repriced. Goldman flagged both spreads as key gauges of concern over debt-funded AI capex. At 133bp, Broadcom's CDS is a few basis points from that record, and more than triple where it was in May, while Nvidia, its own $500 billion "compute financing platform" notwithstanding, sits at 86bp:

Put differently, the stock is held by the people Tan just called gamblers, and the bonds are priced by the people who agree with him.

Tan Had Some Help

To be fair, JPMorgan's Meyers also pointed to a weekend sell-side note re-igniting power worries (a shortage of "powered shell" of as much as 19GW next year, and more in 2028), plus Middle East headlines and nervousness ahead of a private frontier lab investor meeting on Wednesday. Memory got an extra kick from China's CXMT progress on next-gen DRAM, which we covered this morning in "Memory Remains The Epicenter". And with bond markets shut for the holiday, Goldman's cash desk said it was the lowest-volume session of the year, which tends to amplify every move.

Tellingly, Goldman's derivatives desk saw clients reach for HYG downside, buying 50k Jan 77/73 put spreads, with the bond market closed. Even the gamblers, it seems, are hedging the credit.

Bottom Line

JPMorgan's Market Intel team is sticking with its "Tactically Bullish" call into earnings, arguing semis can climb this latest wall of worry. Maybe. But when the CEO whose company is financing its own customers' chip purchases says money, not silicon, is the next bottleneck, while his own CDS prints records, we'd side with the credit market.

After all, in a casino the house always wins. The question is who the house is when the house is also lending the chips.

More in the full JPM US Market Intelligence afternoon briefing and Goldman's TMT specialist sales note, both available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 23:31

The Collective Is The Enemy Of Community

Authored by Thaddeus G. McCotter via American Greatness,

The Democratic Socialists of America exploit young people's longing for community, but socialism's coercive collectivism destroys the voluntary relationships that sustain it.

Whether reflecting on the impersonal essence of "virtual reality" and the incessant stream of demands and anxieties it imposes upon our diurnal, increasingly alienated existence, or listening to the concerns of one's fellow citizens, one hears a persistent leitmotif: the longing for true community, especially among the youth.

One aspect of this longing has been well bruited: people's gnawing sense that the myth of "virtual community" is an alienating illusion that increasingly leaves them numb and pining for personal engagements - the flesh-and-blood amities, intimacies, and sundry other encounters of true community.

Exacerbating this sense of loss, especially among the young, people are very concerned about "affordability" - such as the inability to purchase a new home, rent an apartment, find an entry-level job, or keep the one they already have - due to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and inflation. But too often overlooked is how the diminishment of these opportunities has reduced people's personal interaction and the sense of community it brings.

Indeed, when people, notably youth, talk about wanting to "shop locally," support small businesses, or even reject "corporate" entities and their culture, it is not a complete rejection of capitalism. Indeed, one can clearly recognize young people's embrace of free markets and small businesses. Yet, it is a practical complaint regarding its failures - one of which is its eclipse of community beneath an impersonal corporatism. (One can make the argument that today's youth are essentially the political descendants of Jeffersonian Republicans, but I digress.)

Naturally, one group that has not overlooked young people's yearning for a greater sense of community is the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). They exacerbate youth's disaffection with the economy by equating corporatism and capitalism and proffer socialism as a virtuous panacea for economic ailments. And, for alienated people yearning for community, the DSA conflates and substitutes the collective for community.

But the truth is the collective is the enemy of community.

As Robert Nisbet warned in his seminal work, The Quest for Community: A Study in the Ethics of Order and Freedom:

Marxism, like all other totalitarian movements in our century, must be seen as kind of secular pattern of redemption, designed to bring hope and fulfillment to those who have come to feel alienated, frustrated, and excluded from what they regard as their rightful place in a community. In its promise of unity and belonging lies much of the magic of totalitarian mystery, miracle, and authority.

It is a false promise.

Under socialism, the "warm embrace" of the collective is created by an omnipotent, centralized government. It relies upon coercion, not consent. In addition to crushing an individual's agency and ability to dissent, it destroys the voluntary intermediate institutions that form a community and insulate and protect the individual from the domination of the centralized government.

As Nisbet explained, the destruction of these intermediate institutions is imperative for would-be authoritarians:

We may regard totalitarianism as a process of the annihilation of individuality, but, in more fundamental terms, it is the annihilation, first, of those social relationships within which individuality develops. It is not the extermination of individuals that is ultimately desired by totalitarian rulers, for individuals in the largest number are needed by the new order. What is desired is the extermination of those social relationships which, by their autonomous existence, must always constitute a barrier to the achievement of the absolute political community. The individual alone is powerless. Individual will and memory, apart from the reinforcement of associative tradition, are weak and ephemeral. How well the totalitarian rulers know it. (...) To destroy or diminish the reality of the smaller areas of society, to abolish or restrict the range of cultural alternatives offered individuals by economic endeavor, religion, and kinship, is to destroy in time the roots of the will to resist despotism in its large forms.

The antithesis and antidote to the collective is community.

Community requires individual consent, agency, voluntary associations, and governmental subsidiarity. This is decidedly different from the strawman argument proffered by socialists that the choice is between the collective and a calloused "rugged individualism." While deceptive, such an argument makes a cynical sense, because subscribing to the DSA's agenda would leave someone just a coerced cog in the collective, not a consensual member of a true community.

Once more, Nisbet writes in his book, The Sociological Tradition:

There must be in any stable culture, in any civilization that prizes its integrity, functionally significant and psychologically meaningful groups and associations lying intermediate to the individual and the larger values and purposes of his society. For these are the small areas of association within which alone such values and purposes can take on clear meaning in personal life and become the vital roots of the large culture.

And is it not the aim of all radicals, including the DSA, to destroy root and branch the foundations of an established civilization?

Is it not to fundamentally eradicate all individual agency and consensual, intermediate communal relationships to impose their radical ideological dictates to perfect humanity and create Utopia?

Is it not, as Nisbet avers, to make sure "man's alienation from man must lead in time to man's alienation from God," and from community into the chill grip of the iron fist of the collective?

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 23:25

Luxury Condos Seized In Singapore’s Massive Money-Laundering Case Go Unsold

Singapore has no shortage of people curious about the spoils from its massive money-laundering crackdown. Getting them to actually buy the confiscated real estate has been another matter.

The government is gradually disposing of assets tied to the S$3 billion laundering scandal that erupted in 2023, according to Bloomberg. More than 80 homes are being sold alongside watches, jewelry, handbags and other expensive possessions seized from the operation.

The luxury goods have been hot. The luxury real estate decidedly has not.

Of more than two dozen high-end properties recently put through auctions, only four apartments have found buyers that way. At one sale, more than 60 people showed up for seven properties carrying over S$43 million ($33.6 million) in combined opening prices. Not one sold.

One Gramercy Park apartment near Orchard Road failed to attract a single bid. Another large marble-finished unit with its own elevator was offered at S$7.55 million. Eventually someone tried S$4 million, prompting laughter before the offer was dismissed.

The scene captured an uncomfortable reality for sellers: plenty of people want to see what happens when convicted money launderers' assets hit the auction block, but curiosity isn't translating into aggressive offers.

“There has been a lot of hype generated,” said Tan Tee Khoon, Knight Frank Singapore’s head of auction and sales. Some attendees, he added, openly admit: “I just want to come and see.”

The weak results also arrive at a difficult moment for the most expensive slice of Singapore's housing market.

Bloomberg writes that government measures intended to restrain property speculation have dramatically narrowed the pool of potential purchasers. Most foreigners buying residential property face an additional 60% stamp duty, while relatively few locals are prepared to spend eight figures on a home.

Two confiscated apartments at Martin Modern recently changed hands for S$2.12 million and S$2.08 million, roughly around their previous transaction levels. Two others at Wallich Residence sold for S$6.6 million and S$5.48 million, below their initial auction prices.

The broader Singapore property market remains relatively firm, but the top end has developed weak spots. Private-home prices recently posted their fastest quarterly increase since 2024 even as transaction volume fell about 30% from the previous quarter.

Sentosa, where members of the laundering operation accumulated expensive property, illustrates the disconnect. Villa prices on the resort island fell roughly 11% over the decade through 2025.

Some seized homes are now being marketed for considerably less than their former owners paid. Convicted launderer Lin Baoying spent almost S$29 million on two detached Sentosa houses in 2021. Their current combined guide price is more than S$6 million below that purchase price.

Deloitte's Singapore unit is overseeing the liquidation and plans to release assets in stages through mid-2027. If properties repeatedly fail to sell, prospective buyers have an obvious incentive to wait for further reductions. Sellers, meanwhile, don't want to cut prices so aggressively that the portfolio begins looking like distressed inventory.

Photos: Knight Frank/BBG

The assets stem from an enormous 2023 police operation involving more than 400 officers and over 200 properties, many in expensive areas including Orchard Road and Sentosa. Ten China-born defendants were convicted, and the group became widely known as the “Fujian Gang.”

The fallout eventually reached Singapore's financial sector. Nine firms, including Credit Suisse, Citibank and United Overseas Bank, were hit with a combined S$27.45 million in penalties over anti-money-laundering shortcomings connected to the case.

Yet while multimillion-dollar apartments sit without bids, the former owners' handbags and jewelry have been flying out the door. At an auction conducted by Hotlotz, every luxury-goods lot sold. One limited-edition Louis Vuitton pumpkin bag created with Japanese artist Yayoi Kusama was expected to fetch S$12,000 to S$16,000. Instead, 81 bids pushed the final price to S$87,000.

The difference is partly psychological. Someone chasing a rare handbag, watch or piece of jewelry may worry another opportunity won't appear. Property buyers can compare an apartment against alternatives, determine fair value and walk away when the numbers don't work.

Another 14 Hotlotz auctions are planned, including Hermès handbags and watches from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Richard Mille. Dozens of homes also remain in the liquidation pipeline. The government has already recovered substantial sums. By the end of March, approximately S$1.4 billion in cash and proceeds from disposed assets had entered Singapore's Consolidated Fund.

For now, Singapore's most infamous criminal asset sale has produced a strange split: people will fight over the handbags, but they won't fight over the homes. And with buyers increasingly convinced that patience could produce lower prices, the remaining condos may prove considerably harder to move than the watches, diamonds and designer bags sitting inside them.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 23:00

At Least 10 Supertankers Approaching Port Of Fujairah Reverse Course Amid Iran’s Attacks

A growing number of empty supertankers have been turning away from the Persian Gulf as escalating Iranian attacks threaten a critical transfer hub for wartime oil shipments, Bloomberg reports.

At least 10 very large crude carriers and several Suezmax vessels approaching the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates have stopped or reversed course in recent days, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. 

While other vessels are still continuing on their journeys into the region, the retreat of these tankers amid near-daily attacks around the Strait of Hormuz - some near Fujairah itself - raises fresh concerns over the sustainability of oil flows through the waterway.

Fujairah is commonly signaled as an interim destination by vessels ultimately sailing to the Gulf of Oman, where they can collect cargoes via ship-to-ship transfer, or onward into the Persian Gulf. That makes the number of ships heading toward the port a broader indicator of tanker operators’ appetite for approaching the waterway.

The shift threatens a key workaround that has helped Persian Gulf oil exports recover to near prewar levels. Large crude carriers can wait off Fujairah and in Omani waters outside Hormuz while shuttle tankers make the riskier transit through the strait, bringing out crude and transferring it for onward shipment to buyers.

The system depends on a steady supply of receiving tankers, so a significant retreat from the region by empty VLCCs could slow the flow of crude, tying up the shuttle vessels for longer when tanker availability is already tight.

The pullback is particularly striking given the financial rewards on offer. A global tanker shortage has pushed shipping costs to extraordinary levels.

For example, hiring a vessel to haul oil from the US to China now costs more than launching a rocket into space.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 22:45

"My Guy, I Can Code": After Deconstructing Adobe, Dev Uses Claude To Clone Microsoft Office For Free

Days after unveiling free, open-source stand-ins for seven Adobe applications, Atlanta engineer Brandon Thomas has turned to Microsoft Office. This week he posted WordCraft, GridCraft and DeckCraft - replicas of Word, Excel and PowerPoint - to GitHub, Tom's Hardware reported. Thomas says he used Anthropic's Claude to help build the software and is giving the results away.

The Adobe set came first. Gizmodo's Mike Pearl reported on Oct. 7 that Thomas had used Claude Opus 5.5 and the Rust programming language to recreate Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere and four other Adobe applications. Thomas wrote on Hacker News that they were in early alpha and "not anywhere close to ready," while Pearl called the Photoshop stand-in "glitchy, but real." Adobe, Pearl noted, agreed to a $150 million settlement after federal prosecutors sued it in 2024, alleging it was "trapping" people in subscription plans.

The Office clones followed within days. Paul Thurrott reported on Oct. 9 that WordCraft reads and writes DOCX files, and that ArtCraft, Thomas's company, calls it 87 percent complete for ribbon commands and about 62 percent complete for real feature parity. For GridCraft, a pre-alpha Excel stand-in, ArtCraft claims 93 percent of Excel's worksheet functions. DeckCraft, the PowerPoint stand-in, is said to cover about 79 percent of the feature set and to be 80 percent of the way to a first alpha.

Thurrott also reported that ArtCraft has removed the download links from its website, leaving GitHub as the way to get the code.

Gadget Pilipinas took a closer look at the project's documentation and found some important caveats. WordCraft's roadmap says charts, SmartArt and embedded OLE objects are lost when a DOCX file is loaded and saved, and validation against real business documents had not yet begun. The site also noted that counting ribbon commands measures whether a feature can be invoked, not whether it actually behaves the way Word does. It listed the licenses as Apache-2.0 or MIT. Release numbers differ between the two outlets: Thurrott reported version 0.3.0, while Gadget Pilipinas cited 0.5.0.

The larger target is the subscription model itself. When Microsoft added Copilot to its consumer plans in January 2025, PCWorld reported, Microsoft 365 Personal rose from about $7 a month to $10 and Family from about $10 to $13, with 60 AI credits a month included. Existing subscribers could remain at the old price on a "Classic" plan.

And the customer base is enormous. Microsoft last reported 89 million consumer Microsoft 365 subscribers in July 2025 and then stopped publishing the metric, according to Office-Watch, which estimates the total is now about 95 million. It also reported that consumer cloud revenue rose 24 percent in the quarter ended June 30.

Tom's Hardware called Thomas's project "a targeted protest" against subscription software and said ArtCraft's Discord community is already asking for more, with a CAD clone among the most frequent requests. But it also cautioned that most of the apps are "still far from what they intend to replace."

After the Adobe release, critics dismissed the software as vibecoded "AI slop." Thomas answered on X:

My guy, I can code

In college I was building laser games on skyscrapers and cloning the luciferase-luciferin system into plants via agrobacterium-mediated transfection

AI models enable me to work as an entire company. I'm doing 4x better than Google's revenue per employee https://t.co/HE3qk7paBm pic.twitter.com/sGCkdy92QM

— e/chelon (@echelon) October 9, 2026

The revenue-per-employee comparison is Thomas's own claim, and none of the coverage cited here independently checked it.

The project's "clean-room" description also remains untested. ArtCraft says the apps are clean-room reimplementations written from public specifications and observed behavior. Besthub summarized the view of lawyer Neil Brown, who it said notes that the legal position depends on the jurisdiction and argues that an independent reimplementation made without access to the original source code may not infringe. None of the coverage cited here reports a legal challenge from Microsoft or Adobe.

None of this means Office has been replaced. By ArtCraft's own figure, WordCraft remains about 38 percent short of real feature parity, and the documentation makes clear that important functionality is still missing.

What has changed is the cost and speed of producing a plausible competitor. One engineer working with a coding model has released rough but working versions of Word, Excel and PowerPoint only days after doing the same for Adobe's creative suite - and he is aiming directly at a market where the incumbents have spent years moving customers toward recurring subscriptions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 22:35

Southeast Asia Needs 100TWh More Power, But Its Weak Grid Is A Problem

By Haley Zaremba of OilPrice.com

The war in Iran has exposed a critical vulnerability in Southeast Asia’s energy markets. The region is heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports, and demand is continuing its steep growth trajectory even as global crude oil prices remain punishingly high. Though the Strait of Hormuz is finally reopening, restoring flows of crude oil out of the Persian Gulf and toward Asian buyers, global oil markets have a long road toward recovery. Luckily, the wheels are already in motion to electrify the continent and move away from heavy dependence on imported oil and gas, but the interim will be a rocky chapter for energy security in the rapidly developing region. 

When the Strait of Hormuz initially closed in February, in response to the United States and Israel’s military campaign in Iran, Asian markets were hit hard and hit early by the cutoff. Southeast Asian nations were especially vulnerable to price volatility because of the region’s relatively high dependence on energy imports and low capacity to absorb market shocks thanks to economic constraints. 

In the weeks and months after the Strait closed, the Philippines declared a national energy emergency, and governments across the region turned to energy rationing, work-from-home mandates, and even four-day work weeks to manage the strain. However, the same crisis has also kickstarted a much-needed and arguably overdue renewable revolution that will bolster regional energy security, independence, and autonomy going forward. Getting there is the hard part. 

“Rising fuel imports and fast-growing electricity demand are increasing [Southeast Asia’s] exposure to market disruptions and volatility,” the International Energy Agency fwrote in a news report earlier this week. However, “closer cooperation can strengthen its ability to respond,” the article continued.

“Southeast Asia is one of the world’s most dynamic regions, but its rising needs for energy to power its economic growth face challenges in an increasingly uncertain global energy landscape,” said International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Energy security must be built into decisions across the whole system from oil stocks and gas infrastructure to electricity grids and more efficient use of energy. By working more closely together, ASEAN countries can make better use of their collective resources and respond more effectively when disruptions occur.”

A large part of the coordinated response will need to focus on building up supportive clean energy infrastructure in addition to clean energy production capacity. While solar energy is taking off across the region, grid expansion and refurbishment, energy storage capacities, and transmission infrastructure are lagging behind, risking a major bottleneck in the region’s electrification trajectory. 

According to an August report from Climate Home News, “inadequate grid capacity and maintenance is already proving a major factor in the region’s stuttering rollout of new clean energy projects.” The report also points to “issues ranging from unclear power purchase agreement (PPA) structures, a failure of power policies to keep up with investor needs, permitting and licensing approval delays, grid connection constraints, limits to private sector involvement in electricity markets, and policy and tariff uncertainty.”

Indeed, the region’s renewable revolution risks stalling out before it even really starts if these issues are not addressed quickly. A May report from consultancy Bain & Company and Standard Chartered found that between the years of 2021 and 2025, 50 to 60 percent of renewable energy projects in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia were cancelled or stalled thanks to inadequate infrastructural and policy support.

These issues are set to intensify as rapid economic development continues across Southeast Asia. “More than 100 TWh of new electricity demand is expected to arrive by 2030, driven by data centers, electric vehicles (EVs), and industrial clusters,” the Bain & Company report finds. “However, while demand from these sources is set to materialize in one to three years, grid infrastructure takes five to fifteen years to build. This mismatch has made the grid a key binding constraint that increasingly determines where capital flows.”

Source: Bain

The International Energy Agency’s new report argues that there is still hope, however, if the region’s governments work together to forge and maintain increased resilience in the face of volatile global markets and local pressures. The report recommends “stronger national preparedness and deeper regional cooperation across different sectors and fuels to help members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) withstand supply disruptions and volatile prices.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 21:45

Tragedy Strikes Israeli School Hike When Teen Puts Remnant Hezbollah Ordinance In Backpack

Tragedy has unfolded Monday during an Israeli school field trip in the north of the country. A 15-year old was killed and around 20 more teens and teachers injured when unexploded Hezbollah ordinance detonated.

The incident is being widely reported in Israeli media, and happened in the Ramim Ridge area in the north of the country. The group came upon what was "believed by the military to be a submunition from a Hezbollah rocket."

Scene of blast aftermath, via YNet

The group was on a hike of Naftali Mountains Forest scenic route, but it was reportedly also in an area previously targeted by Hezbollah rockets, given that at some point the Israeli army used it as a staging ground related to the Lebanon campaign.

Throughout prior years of war going back to the Gaza and Iran conflicts, Hezbollah routinely launched Grad rockets containing dozens of BRB1-type submunitions on northern Israel. This caused a largescale exodus of residents from the area, and mass school closures.

But even though a sense of normalcy has returned amid an uneasy Lebanon ceasefire (which also gets not infrequently broken), and schools and public events have long reopened, certain dangers still clearly remain.

Israeli's YNet details the following:

One of the schoolchildren is believed to have picked up a submunition during a hike along the Naftali Mountains Forest scenic route and put it in his backpack. Several minutes later, the submunition exploded, according to a preliminary probe by authorities.

The blast killed a teenager and wounded 19 others, including two in serious condition and three in moderate condition.

Over a dozen ambulances and a bomb disposal unit were dispatched to the chaotic scene. Three Israeli Air Force helicopters also helped in the rescue efforts. Some of the surviving teens described taking off running after the blast, given also confusion over whether they were under attack.

Israel's military and security services have launched an investigation centered on whether the class outing had authorization to be in a military zone. Times of Israel separately puts the number of injured at 24.

Exampled of a BRB1-type submunition from a Hezbollah rocket that struck the northern border community of Metula, March 4, 2026. Recovered by Israeli police.

Authorities are also urging citizens to not touch military items or ordinance, and to call an emergency hotline so it can be safely disposed of. The whole ordeal raises the possibility of future such tragedies happening, as the countryside is likely littered with much more dangerous ordinance after years of Israeli-Hezbollah war.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 21:20

$427,000 In Salaries, No Employees: FBI Raid Puts Baltimore City Nonprofit In Spotlight

A Baltimore City nonprofit that received $1 million in federal pandemic funding reported more than $427,000 in salaries and wages while listing zero employees on its federal tax filing, according to Chris Papst, lead investigator for FOX45's Project Baltimore.

Papst has tracked nonprofit KEYS Empowers since FBI agents raided the nonprofit linked to a Baltimore City school board member who abruptly resigned.

KEYS Empowers' latest Form 990 filing, covering 2024, reported $2,001,754 in revenue, with $427,201 paid out in salaries and wages. But as Papst noted, the filing lists no employees.

Papst added more color to KEYS Empowers' filing:

• $2,001,754 in revenue
• $427,201 in salaries and wages
• $79,701 in travel expenses
• $242,288 for conferences, conventions, and meetings
• Zero employees

At the center of KEYS Empowers is Mujahid Muhammad, who resigned as a member of the Baltimore City Board of School Commissioners after the FBI raided his nonprofit.

"I'm extremely concerned," said Torrey Snow, a contributing member of the Baltimore Sun's editorial board.

Snow continued, "Maryland taxpayers are heavily subsidizing the work in Baltimore City, and they need to know that officials that are in these areas are keeping an eye on where this money is going."

In 2022, left-wing Mayor Brandon Scott's office announced a $1 million award in American Rescue Plan Act funding to KEYS Empowers.

"If public money is going into these nonprofits, it is the official's responsibility to ensure that these nonprofits are engaging in activities that are necessary and benefiting the public," stated Snow.

Publicly available data show KEYS Empowers' corporate structure and link Muhammad and Ashiah Parker, both appointed to the Baltimore City school board by Mayor Scott, to the nonprofit. This points to overlapping nonprofit leadership, school board appointments linked to Scott, and government funding for a highly questionable nonprofit.

The relationship map places Mujahid Muhammad between not just KEYS Empowers but also K.E.Y.S. Development T.A. LLC. 

Reporting more than $427,000 in salaries and wages yet listing zero employees is a major red flag.

The questions remain: who received the taxpayers' money, what services did they provide, and who approved the payments? Whether this is simply sloppy Form 990 reporting or something more serious, taxpayers deserve answers.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 20:55

Secret UFO Arms Race? US, China And Russia Battle To Unlock Mysterious Technology

The United States, China and Russia could be locked in a secretive new arms race involving unidentified flying objects, raising extraordinary questions about whether America's biggest adversaries are competing to unlock technology that could transform modern warfare, according to the New York Post.

The possibility of a UFO arms race is drawing renewed attention as lawmakers, former intelligence officials and military veterans warn that Washington could be falling behind its geopolitical rivals in the race to understand mysterious aerial phenomena.

Rep. Eric Burlison (R-MO) has warned that America's failure to release promised UFO information could give China and Russia a major propaganda victory, allowing the rival powers to portray themselves as more transparent than Washington.

"I think it would definitely be a misstep because of what we would be demonstrating to our people," Burlison said in an interview with the New York Post. "We're supposed to be the most transparent country in the world to its citizenry and if another country is able to be more transparent than the United States on this topic it would be a blemish on our otherwise pristine legacy on transparency."

WHAT DOES GPT KNOW!?!?

Former U.S. intelligence official David Grusch has also claimed, without public evidence, that China and Russia possess crashed UFOs, suggesting that America's adversaries could be attempting to reverse-engineer technology of unknown origin.

Grusch made headlines in 2023 after testifying before Congress about alleged secret government programs dedicated to recovering and studying mysterious spacecraft.

In 2021, China publicly acknowledged investigating unexplained aerial sightings, including using artificial intelligence to analyze reports of mysterious objects.

The South China Morning Post reported at the time:

According to Wuhan-based researcher Chen Li from the Air Force Early Warning Academy, human analysts have been overwhelmed in recent years by the rapidly mounting sighting reports from a wide range of military and civilian sources across the country.

"The frequent occurrence of unidentified air conditions in recent years ... brings severe challenges to air defence security of our country," said Chen, in a 2019 report to a conference of senior information technology scientists in Beijing in 2019.

Russia's interest in UFOs reportedly dates back to the Soviet era.

The New York Post noted:

Investigative reporter George Knapp released a trove of documents on Russia in February that he snuck out of the USSR in 1991. Those documents point to the Soviets investigating thousands of reports of UFOs while officially denying their existence in public.

However, the Pentagon's All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office has repeatedly pushed back against claims of secret alien technology programs, reporting that investigators found no verifiable evidence that the U.S. government or private companies possess extraterrestrial technology.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 20:35

Colombia's Richest Man Turns Venezuelan Oil Contract Into $500 Million GeoPark Stake

Colombian billionaire Jaime Gilinski is positioned to take control of GeoPark Ltd., a Latin American energy producer, after converting a Venezuelan oil agreement secured at almost no upfront cost into an equity stake initially valued at more than $500 million, according to Bloomberg.

The transaction illustrates the competition for Venezuelan assets following Nicolás Maduro’s removal in January and Washington’s subsequent relaxation of energy sanctions. Investors with government connections are moving quickly into a country whose enormous oil reserves have suffered from years of mismanagement, sanctions and inadequate investment.

Bloomberg writes that Gilinski, worth approximately $40 billion according to Bloomberg, made his fortune in banking and acquisitions, including his takeover of food manufacturer Nutresa SA. His son Gabriel reportedly visited Caracas more than ten times this year, meeting with acting President Delcy Rodríguez in March while pursuing opportunities in Venezuela’s energy sector.

Those efforts resulted in a 25-year agreement to operate Bare, a heavy crude field in Venezuela’s Orinoco region. Located near existing Chevron facilities, the property could benefit from established infrastructure.

Photo: Bloomberg

Shortly after securing the contract, Gilinski arranged to transfer his interest to GeoPark in exchange for newly issued shares initially worth approximately $515 million. The transaction would make him the company’s majority shareholder despite requiring little personal investment in the underlying project.

GeoPark would finance development and retain a 65% net working interest, with the remaining 35% belonging to state-owned PDVSA. The company hopes to increase production from approximately 11,000 barrels per day to 95,000, although achieving that target will require substantial spending and access to materials needed to transport Venezuela’s unusually thick crude.

Gilinski had already acquired approximately 20% of GeoPark in March, effectively disrupting a competing takeover attempt. Rather than negotiating the Venezuelan agreement entirely through GeoPark, however, he secured most of the operating rights separately before offering them to the company.

GeoPark says it participated in the negotiations and initially held a 5% interest in Bare. The company is now seeking to acquire Gilinski’s remaining 95% at a valuation reportedly 5% below estimates prepared by its advisers.

The deal remains subject to conditions that must be satisfied by December. If the underlying Venezuelan contract expires before completion, the GeoPark transaction will be canceled.

Gilinski is hardly alone in pursuing Venezuela’s reopening. Pacific Coast Energy has begun operating two heavy oil properties, while newcomers including Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam have negotiated agreements. Established players such as Chevron and Repsol remain active as other international producers consider returning.

For Gilinski, the arrangement could deliver an extraordinary return: majority control of an established energy company in exchange for oil development rights obtained with minimal upfront capital, while GeoPark assumes the financial burden of expanding production.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 20:20

ABC News Retracts Trump Family Hit Piece, But Won't Say Why

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

ABC News is facing ongoing scrutiny after publishing a controversial story about President Donald Trump's sons and abruptly taking it down after critics challenged several claims that they slammed as false.

Donald Trump Jr. poses with his 11-year-old son Spencer. / PHOTO: @donaldjtrumpjr via Instagram

The story centered on the claims that Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump's "investments have won billions in Pentagon since" Donald Trump returned to office in 2025.

It claimed that companies in which the president's sons had invested had benefited from more than $6 billion in government contracts.

ABC ran the story Wednesday but removed it an unknown time later that day. The article was no longer available on the outlet's website by Thursday morning, according to Mediaite.

The page instead displayed an error message reading: "OPPS! PAGE UNAVAILABLE. The page either does not exist or is currently unavailable."

The story was written by ABC reporter Nathan Lee, who, after the story's deletion, deactivated his LinkedIn and X page. Headline USA has reached out to Lee but has not received a response.

Before the removal, the ABC story had enjoyed widespread promotion from Democratic politicians and lawmakers, most of whom used it nearly in unison to criticize the Trump family.

It is unclear who brought the story's claims to ABC News' attention or whether it was pitched by a Democratic operative.

One of the story's critics, communications strategist and former Trump official Alexa Henning, speaking on behalf of 1789 Capital, said that ABC News conflated the size of the venture capital firm's investment in defense contractor Anduril with the amount raised in a funding round.

Trump Jr. is one of six partners of 1789 Capital.

ABC deleted this article in less than 24 hours because it's false. Sounds about as long as your presidential campaign would last. https://t.co/Nzj34wwNnQ

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) October 8, 2026

Separately, the story downplayed that some investments began under Biden, undermining its central narrative.

ABC News ultimately republished the story on Oct. 9 with a long editor's note and corrections. The new version had no author byline and attributed the story to "ABC NEWS."

The note read: "A version of this story published on Oct. 7 contained errors in the description of certain company investments, government contracts and event chronologies. After subsequent reporting, this version contains corrected information and additional context regarding some of those investments, contracts and events."

Even members of the legacy media expressed shock at ABC's handling of the story, with CNN journalist Andrew Kaczynski describing the move as "absolutely wild" on X.

"ABC News completely retracted this story like two days ago just totally nuked it," Kaczynski wrote. "No note, no explanation, no comment. It had been shared by tons of top lawmakers and democratic officials."

The revised story now says that 1789 Capital invested $50 million in Anduril "as part of a larger $2.5 billion funding round last year, according to the defense contractor's founder."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 20:05

Suspect With "Extensive Criminal Record" Charged In Fatal Shooting Of Philadelphia Police Officer

A 35-year-old Philadelphia Water Department employee is facing murder and attempted murder charges following a weekend shooting that left one police officer dead and another fighting for his life, according to CBS News.

Eric Lewis, who prosecutors say fired on at least 11 officers during an extended confrontation in West Philadelphia early Saturday, was arrested after authorities discovered him hiding in a tree near the scene. He appeared in court Sunday and remains jailed without bail ahead of an October 26 preliminary hearing.

The violence claimed the life of Shane Seiber, 40, a decorated 10-year police veteran and father of two who had recently completed SWAT training. Seiber, who previously served at Dover Air Force Base from 2007 to 2015, suffered three gunshot wounds and died despite emergency medical treatment.

Photo: CBS News

CBS writes that a second officer, 33, and the father of five children, was struck by 12 bullets and remained in critical condition. Police Commissioner Kevin Bethel said his recovery was far from certain.

The confrontation began around 1 a.m. when officers were dispatched to a home on North 52nd Street following reports of an armed individual outside the residence. Gunfire erupted as police approached, prompting a large response involving patrol officers and tactical units.

According to District Attorney Larry Krasner, Lewis subsequently fired toward nine other officers, although none were injured. Authorities eventually apprehended him after he reportedly spent several hours concealed in a nearby tree.

Investigators collected a shotgun and two pistols from the property, including a handgun reportedly taken from one of the wounded officers.

Photo: CBS

Pennsylvania state Rep. Amen Brown, who lives nearby and observed the arrest, described Lewis as having "an extensive criminal record".

Brown also alleged that the suspect made statements indicating he wished more officers had died.

Lewis is reportedly employed by Philadelphia's Water Department and represented by District Council 33, a union that has expressed sympathy for the victims and promised to assist investigators.

The shooting has intensified discussion among local officials about public safety and behavioral health policies. Mayor Cherelle Parker called for expanding Pennsylvania's involuntary commitment statutes to address serious substance abuse and mental health problems.

Meanwhile, Gov. Josh Shapiro directed that flags be lowered to half-staff in Seiber's memory. Sen. John Fetterman also expressed support for the officers' families and hopes for the surviving officer's recovery.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 19:40

Saudi Energy Conference Loses Shell, Exxon, BP Execs - Who Bail After Houthi Strikes

Via The Cradle

Several top energy executives were dropped from the schedule of Saudi Arabia's ongoing WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh on Monday, as the kingdom insists on holding the conference despite the threat to the capital posed by the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces (Houthis). 

The event began on October 11 and is meant to run until 15 October. The head ‌executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron, and BP were expected at the event. 

Source: Asharq Al-Awsat

On Monday, they were no longer listed on the agenda that the conference organizers put out.

"To everyone who traveled to Riyadh, thank you," said Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman while making the opening comments at the WPC Energy Congress. 

"You know this ​country is safe and that we hold your protection at whole heart… Our gathering here ⁠does not mean the risk is gone," he said. 

He said that the YAF’s operations targeting the kingdom were "serious" and deserved an "equally serious" response. The event had been planned for April but was postponed when the illegal US-Israeli war on Iran was launched in February.

"Unfortunately, due to travel ⁠disruption, we are unable to be there in person. We greatly value our long-standing partnerships across the region," said a BP spokesperson cited by Reuters. The spokesperson added that the firm made “every ​effort to participate.”

Shell declined to comment, and TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Chevron did not ​immediately respond.

The event is taking place 10 kilometers from Riyadh’s King Khalid Airport, which was bombarded by the YAF over the weekend, resulting in 12 deaths.

At the conference, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said pressure across the energy world will only worsen until the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened by Iran.

"Globally, the squeeze on crude oil is serious," he said. The surge in refined fuel prices is making things worse, he added. 

Offshore inventories are “well below” 6 million barrels, he went on to say, warning that it could take up to two years to refill while meeting demand. Meanwhile, crude oil prices climbed to their highest level in two weeks on Monday.

Brent crude rose 1.25 percent to $106 per barrel, while US WTI crude traded at $92 per barrel, marking their highest levels since 29 September.

Riyadh has suffered significantly as a result of its renewed war on Yemen and Sanaa’s retaliatory strikes, widening the country’s budget deficit and pushing the Saudi economy to the brink of "contraction," the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Monday.

Over the weekend, Riyadh’s international airport came under heavy Yemeni bombardment. The halt to operations at King Khalid Airport was extended on Monday. Sanaa had repeatedly issued warnings over recent days, but Saudi authorities insisted on keeping airports running.

The kingdom's Abha International Airport has also been under fire. Major Aramco sites across the country have been repeatedly struck, including refineries. 

Heavy clashes inside Yemen are ongoing as well, as Ansarallah-led forces clash with the kingdom’s proxies in a bid to expel the Saudi-led coalition from the country. In September, the YAF seized Bab al-Mandab, much of the western Yemeni coast, and several Red Sea islands. Ansarallah-led forces are now pushing toward the city of Taiz.

Sanaa’s large-scale campaign of retaliatory strikes against Saudi Arabia and its proxies is the result of the kingdom’s July escalation against Yemen. Indiscriminate Saudi bombing of Yemen has escalated in recent days, resulting in civilian casualties. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 18:50

Anthropic Bans "Sustained And Needless" Cruelty Toward Claude In New Usage Policy

Anthropic has added a prohibition on "sustained and needless abusive or cruel behavior toward our models" to its usage policy, AFP reported Thursday. The policy page lists an effective date of Nov. 12, 2026 - so you have about a month to abuse it like a red-headed stepchild.

Breaking up will be up to Claude itself - which "will remain the primary enforcement mechanism." Anthropic said last year that it was giving Claude the ability to end conversations in "rare, extreme cases" of persistently harmful or abusive user interactions. It did not immediately respond to AFP's request for comment on the new language.

The policy does not explicitly cite "model welfare," the idea that AI systems might deserve protections usually reserved for living things, AFP noted, but Anthropic and its executives have entertained the concept. CEO Dario Amodei told The New York Times in February: "We don't know if the models are conscious...But we're open to the idea that it could be."

Others reject the premise. Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman wrote in an essay last month that "AIs are not conscious. They do not feel, experience, or suffer." He called granting rights and moral protections to such a system "a recipe for disaster." AFP also listed Pope Leo XIV among those who have rejected the idea of machine consciousness; at St. Peter's Basilica on Thursday, it said, he suggested machines lack a soul and merely "compile data" faster than people can.

Jackson Stakeman, a general manager at the Atlanta-based AI services provider Sparq, told AFP that the consciousness debate leads in circles. "Consciousness is a trap. We can't prove it in each other," he said. The better metaphor, in his view, is a mirror: AI systems "reflect what we put in, at scale," which he called reason enough for the policy change.

The Personhood Push

The cruelty clause lands in the middle of a campaign that ZeroHedge readers have seen laid out in some detail. This week we ran an essay by Peter C. Earle arguing that AI companies' growing talk of machine consciousness has a commercial logic. Earle pointed to a New York Times report that Anthropic spent months meeting religious scholars, over meals and under nondisclosure agreements, to persuade them its models "think and feel."

The essay also recounted that Anthropic cofounder Christopher Olah cited "evidence of introspection" at a Vatican event, and that Pope Leo XIV's encyclical answered the other way: "So-called artificial intelligences do not undergo experiences, do not possess a body, do not feel joy or pain." Those are the essay's quotations of the sources; they were not independently checked for this piece.

Earle's argument is that personhood would work as a moat. If an AI system is a moral patient, rivals become "prospective risks," and the technical barriers to entering the business become "moral ones." He also reached back to Dartmouth College v. Woodward (1819), the Supreme Court case that gave corporations protections once reserved for people, to suggest AI could follow the same path, and he asked whether a model is a product or an entity, and whether copies of it count as separate individuals.

The consequences he expects are regulatory. Firms seen as creators of entities with independent interests, he wrote, should expect licensing, testing limits, audits and "rights" commissions to become standard, a regime the incumbents could help design. His conclusion was that leaving consciousness unsettled serves the labs best, since uncertainty supports a stronger oversight regime than either answer would.

Nothing in AFP's account says Anthropic's new clause is part of such a strategy, and the policy does not invoke welfare or rights. A rule against abusing a chatbot is also easy to read more narrowly, as Stakeman did, as a conduct standard for users. But the company's executives are on record leaving the question open, and the same company has been the subject of the religious-outreach reporting.

The Skeptics' Case

The opposing view has had its own airing on ZH. In "What AI Is... And Is Not," Charles Hugh-Smith wrote that large language models are not thinking, understanding or making judgments and are "engines of linguistic automation, not engines of understanding." In his words, "AI is not a 'mind,' it is a probability distribution."

Hugh-Smith argued that people mistake fluency for thought because the output "sounds like us." He cited the 1966 chatbot ELIZA, which drew users into conversation despite being simple, and quoted a Scientific American line that a model "cannot form beliefs, revise them or check its output against the world." He said the question of when to declare AI conscious has run for decades without an answer. That is an opinion piece, and the Scientific American line is his quotation, not one checked here.

The two ZH pieces and the AFP report converge on one point: nobody has shown that these systems experience anything, and the people most willing to entertain the idea sell the systems. Suleyman, who runs AI at Microsoft, is likewise a competitor of Anthropic, so his objection carries its own interest. What the clause does settle is narrower. From Nov. 12, abusing Claude at length is a policy violation, and the remedy remains Claude's own ability to end the conversation.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 18:25

Bipartisan Senators Challenge Trump's Russian Diesel Deal, Claim It Violates Federal Law

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

A bipartisan group of seven senators is demanding President Donald Trump reverse his decision to allow Russian diesel imports into the United States, arguing the agreement violates federal law and provides financial support to Moscow amid its ongoing war with Ukraine.

UNITED STATES - JUNE 4: Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., arrives for the Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearings for President Trump's judicial nominees in the Hart Senate Office Building on Wednesday, June 4, 2025. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

The lawmakers issued a joint statement Sunday citing a 2022 law prohibiting Russian energy imports, which Congress passed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"President Trump's decision to allow Russian diesel imports to the U.S. runs directly counter to that law," the senators said. "The Administration has also failed to consult with Congress or submit any explanation to justify its decision as required by statute."

The group includes Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Curtis of Utah, along with Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Ron Wyden of Oregon.

Trump announced Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to supply hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel fuel to American and global markets. The Treasury Department subsequently authorized Russian diesel imports through April 2027.

The agreement is part of Trump's effort to reduce soaring fuel costs as Americans struggle with higher energy prices ahead of November's midterm elections.

Diesel prices reached a record average of $6.53 per gallon in September, according to AAA, as the ongoing conflict with Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets.

However, the senators argue that easing restrictions on Russian energy exports undermines American pressure on Moscow.

"The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians," they wrote.

Tillis separately questioned the agreement's legality during an appearance Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," arguing that the 2022 legislation established conditions for lifting restrictions, including Russia's withdrawal from Ukrainian territory.

The White House previously responded to Tillis' criticism by pointing to Trump's Truth Social announcement declaring an "ENERGY CEASEFIRE" between Russia and Ukraine, although the president offered no details about the arrangement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also expressed concern that relaxing sanctions without a lasting agreement to reduce hostilities could weaken efforts to pressure Russia.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 18:00

Nearly 15,000 ICE Detainers Not Honored In New York City, DHS Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

A total of 14,916 immigration detainers issued by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) were not honored by New York City due to its sanctuary policies, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

There were 47,750 criminal charges and convictions linked to these detainers that New York City ignored between Jan. 20, 2025, and Sept. 14, 2026, Homeland Security said in an Oct. 9 statement.

An immigration detainer is a request from ICE asking local, state, or federal law enforcement agencies to notify the agency before releasing a removable immigrant or to hold the individual for up to 48 hours beyond the scheduled release time so that the Homeland Security can take custody of the person.

"Sanctuary politicians create an environment for criminal activity to thrive, not for American citizens to be safe," Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said in the statement. "When you have sanctuary cities and politicians, you endanger the safety of the public."

The Homeland Security statement was issued in the context of a recent shooting of Oscar Bengal, a criminal illegal immigrant in New York. Bengal, from the Dominican Republic, was shot on Oct. 8 while federal immigration agents were attempting to arrest him in the Bronx.

Bengal was sent to a local hospital for treatment and subsequently placed in detention.

The illegal immigrant had previous criminal convictions for grand larceny and has been arrested for drug possession, assault, weapons charges, and robbery, according to Homeland Security. He is allegedly associated with the Trinitarios street gang, which is implicated in the murder of a Border Patrol officer last year.

Bengal had entered the United States illegally and was arrested by the New York Police Department in December 2023. However, he was released back into the community in a few days due to sanctuary policies, Homeland Security said.

"When dangerous illegal aliens are released back onto the streets by radical sanctuary politicians, our officers are forced to make arrests at large in the community in unpredictable and dangerous environments," Homeland Security said in another statement.

Among the 47,750 criminal charges and convictions, the crimes include homicides, sexual assaults, drug offenses, kidnapping, weapons offenses, and assaults, Homeland Security said.

In July, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul wrote a letter to Mullin, criticizing the immigration enforcement actions being carried out in the state.

"My long-standing policy has always been that we will cooperate with law enforcement when crimes have been committed, and there is a warrant for arrest or a court order, because we want our streets to be safe as well; but this unbridled aggression against law-abiding New Yorkers must stop," Hochul said.

"Instead of focusing on the worst of the worst, your administration is detaining neighbors and coworkers, separating families, and secretly building the infrastructure to detain even more people."

According to New York's January 2025 guidance update for local authorities regarding immigration enforcement, there is no legal obligation for a local law enforcement agent to detain an individual pursuant to an ICE detainer.

In September last year, Homeland Security sent letters to multiple sanctuary states, including New York, requesting compliance with ICE detainers, in line with federal immigration regulations.

In December 2025, Homeland Security said that New York had released 6,947 criminal illegal immigrants, failing to honor ICE detainers. In addition, there were, at the time, 7,113 immigrants in custody in New York with an active detainer, accused of crimes such as assaults, homicides, and sexual predatory offenses.

Homeland Security said in its latest statement that Hochul brought in legislation barring local law enforcement from cooperating with ICE.

"Here in New York, we need local police focused on keeping our communities safe - not serving as de facto ICE agents, not conducting civil immigration enforcement," Hochul said in an Aug. 25 statement.

The legislation took effect on Aug. 25, after which 15 county sheriffs sued the New York government to overturn the ban.

New York is one of the states the Department of Justice has designated as following sanctuary policies, which can include placing limits on ICE detainers and restricting ICE agents' access to jails for immigration enforcement.

Other states that, at the time, designated such policies include California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. In addition, the District of Columbia and multiple counties and cities were also designated as having implemented sanctuary policies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 17:00

Polymarket Sees 69% Chance Guilfoyle Out By Month's End As Trump, Rubio Weigh Firing

Prediction markets have dramatically repriced the tenure of Kimberly Guilfoyle as US Ambassador to Greece.

As of Monday, Polymarket traders put a 69% probability on her being out of the post by October 31 - up sharply from the mid-single digits just days earlier - after reporting that President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are actively considering her removal.

//--> Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?
Yes 69% · No 34%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

A senior U.S. official told the Associated Press that Trump and Rubio are "extremely pissed off" by the accumulating allegations of improper conduct and would likely decide this week after the Columbus Day holiday. Rubio was described as particularly angry: he had just visited Athens, where Guilfoyle attended most of his events and greeted him with a bear hug as the stories circulated. The State Department's inspector general is examining the claims.

This follows ZeroHedge's earlier coverage of the two main strands of Wall Street Journal reporting that have driven the controversy. In late September we noted the firestorm after Guilfoyle was reported to have told Greek officials, during a March dinner discussing the collapse of Romania's government, that "We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here." The Journal has also detailed her promotion of a Greek construction and energy company's interests (Aktor Group) across the Balkans, including allowing its lobbyist into diplomatic meetings, while pushing U.S. LNG sales via the "vertical gas corridor."

Days later the Journal published the donor texts: six days before her July 9, 2025 Senate confirmation hearing, Guilfoyle allegedly messaged Trump donor Eric Deters on Signal asking him to wire $100,000 to her American Express account in a way that "won't show up anywhere," while he sought her help securing administration attention on personal tax and legal matters. Deters has said the relationship involved roughly $300,000 in prior appearance fees and discussions of up to $1 million more for influence; he has called the $100k request "absolutely a quid pro quo" and labeled her "a grifter." Her lawyers have disputed the authenticity of the messages and said any money sought related to unpaid pre-nomination speaking fees.

Newer Journal reporting has added claims of luxury travel funded by Greek businessmen. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Guilfoyle was recorded boasting about flying on a private jet with Aktor CEO Alexandros Exarchou and later traveling with shipping tycoon Nikolas Tsakos; she reportedly told an American businessman seeking an invitation to an Eric Trump dinner, "You know, I can deliver the world to you... I'm going to make you a lot of f-ing money." Embassy statements have said she followed State Department ethics and gift-reporting guidelines.

Her legal team (David Schwartz and Jesse Binnall) issued a statement late Sunday denying wrongdoing, asserting compliance with regulations on private travel, and indicating they are evaluating legal remedies over the claimed speaking-fee debt. Rubio had praised her as an "incredibly effective advocate" in a statement ahead of his Athens visit, and while there called her a "strong ambassador" even as he refused to address the reports, telling journalists that press accounts are "not the gospel." Trump has previously described the situation as "too bad" while saying he had heard little and that she was "always very nice."

The Polymarket contract resolves "Yes" if Guilfoyle ceases to be ambassador for any period before the stated date (including via announcement of resignation or removal), based on official information or a consensus of credible reporting. Volume has climbed past $60,000 total as the October 31 contract moved from the mid-single digits into the 60s over the weekend; the December 31 contract sits around 73%.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 16:40

"Too Combustible": New York Times Calls For Canceling Sophie Cunningham

Authored by Jonathan Turley via JonathanTurley.org,

The New York Times demonstrated again this week that it remains solidly part of the cancel campaign culture. The Athletic, owned by the Times, joined the mob in calling for the Indiana Fever to dump Sophie Cunningham for publicly opposing biological males playing in women's sports - a position shared by the vast majority of citizens.

The column by Candace Buckner blames Cunningham for creating a "circus" and says that she is a distraction from the game due to her public stance. So, she is now "too combustible, her takes too "turbulent" to play basketball.

Of course, if she supported transplayers, she would presumably not be combustible but admirable.

Notably, the Times does not view those who have attacked Cunningham and her fans as too "combustible," including coaches wearing opposing slogans and statements in favor of biological males in women's sports. The New York Times itself reported that almost 80% of citizens hold the same position as Cunningham.

The Oct. 6 column called on Indiana not to renew Cunningham's contract after two seasons when she becomes a free agent because she is "too combustible."

However, the Times does not believe that those coaches and players speaking out in favor of such inclusion are "too combustible."

There was no call for sacking figures like Storm co-owner Celeste Keaton, who reportedly yelled profanities at girls who were simply supporting women in sports and Cunningham.

Nor was there a call to sack Minnesota Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve for wearing a T-shirt supporting trans players in a game against the Indiana Fever and Cunningham.

Liberal sentiments are never combustible for the Times. The newspaper ran a long line of columns supporting Colin Kaepernick in his kneeling protests during games. Conversely, columns attacked former player Enes Kanter Freedom for wearing a T-Shirt reading "WOMAN noun. adult human female."

For most of us, the hatred for Cunningham is baffling. These athletes have a unique perspective on this controversy that can help inform the debate on both sides. We should welcome the insights of athletes for and against transgender players in this national discussion.

Instead, Cunningham has been subject to the same hateful, unhinged attacks that we have seen on other influential figures such as J.K. Rowling. There is no room for civil debate or any difference of opinion.

The purpose of these campaigns is obvious. Even with the vast majority of citizens supporting Cunningham's position, press and pundits want to deter others from publicly taking such positions. It is designed to chill speech and deter dissent.

On Friday's episode of "No Hesitation with Sophie Cunningham & Drew Hanlen," Hanlen correctly called the piece an "absolute hate piece." Cunningham responded even more succinctly to the Times with "suck it."

I am not concerned for Cunningham, who has shown great courage and steadfastness in the face of these critics. Rather, it was the latest evidence that the Times has changed little in fueling the mob and canceling opposing voices.

The Times has thrilled the extreme left with its signature relativism in defending any abuse on the left, from looting to murder. It has continued to feature violent extremists as political attacks rise around the country.

The same newspaper that fired editors and denounced Sen. Tom Cotton for his NYT column quelling violent protests would go on to print individuals who have said that they are ok with killing conservatives or capitalists.

Just before the anniversary of the Cotton controversy, the New York Times published a column by University of Rhode Island professor Erik Loomis, who defended the murder of a conservative protester and said that he saw "nothing wrong" with such acts of violence.

After canceling Sen. Cotton, the Times had no problem with publishing the views of a Chinese figure called the enforcer of Beijing in the crushing of protests.

The New York Times is undeterred because its readers seem to value the very hypocrisy revealed in these controversies. They can rely on the Times to offer spins and deflections to relieve them of any self-examination after tragedies like the Kirk assassination.

While denouncing disinformation, the Times has embraced false narratives and continues to publish distorted historical claims.

As with its cancellation of Sen. Cotton, the Times shows that the left is ready to resume the prior campaign of cancel campaigns and censorship of opposing views. That includes an athlete who merely voiced a view in favor of female athletes that is shared by roughly 80 percent of the country. It is not shared by the Times or its viewers, so (once again) Cunningham must go.

Opposing viewpoints are intolerable to many on the left, and the editors of the Times are once again rationalizing the worst impulses of American politics.

* * *

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 16:20

DOJ Lacks Authority To Check Voter Lists Against Immigration Database, Judge Says

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice (DOJ) cannot take the names of registered voters and compare them against a federal immigration database, a federal judge has ruled.

U.S. District Judge Sparkle Sooknanan, based in Washington, handed down an order on Oct. 9 against the department.

The DOJ has been requesting lists of registered voters from states and, after obtaining them, checking them against the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements service, which contains citizenship information.

When people are identified as registered to vote despite not being citizens - according to the SAVE database - the DOJ has been demanding that states remove them from voter rolls.

"The challenged policy represents the federal government's attempt to decide who gets to vote," Sooknanan said. "But Congress has left that authority where our Constitution has always placed it: with the states."

She also said that the department "cannot run roughshod over longstanding laws that were carefully crafted to protect the rights of the American people."

The DOJ did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.

"The Trump administration has repeatedly taken extreme measures to interfere with how elections are run, undermine confidence in the results, and create confusion," Ming Cheung, a senior staff attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union, which is representing plaintiffs who sued over the policy, said in a statement.

"This effort to seize sensitive voter data is part of that same pattern, and today's ruling makes clear that the administration cannot use the federal government to disrupt elections or put voters' rights at risk."

Common Cause and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington sued in April, arguing the effort to build a national voter database with the files from states was illegal in part because the DOJ planned to disclose confidential voter data to contractors to help verify the status of the voters and force states to remove voters identified as lacking citizenship.

"No federal statute authorizes DOJ's sprawling new voter surveillance, data consolidation, and purging operation," they said.

Government lawyers said that Congress authorized the department to enforce voting laws, including the National Voter Registration Act, and that the effort was part of that enforcement.

The act says states must make a "reasonable effort" to remove ineligible voters from voter lists and says the attorney general can sue states if they do not comply with the law.

The DOJ created the policy after President Donald Trump directed the attorney general to work with states to identify suspected violations of election laws, including voting by ineligible individuals.

Sooknanan said that the laws the government cited do not authorize the policy.

"It would turn these voter-protection laws on their head to find that they authorize DOJ's unprecedented actions," she wrote.

The National Voter Registration Act, for instance, emphasizes the role states have in maintaining voter rolls and does not empower the DOJ to demand voter data from states, the judge said.

She vacated the DOJ's effort to maintain voter lists.

The ruling came several weeks after the Supreme Court paused a ruling by Sooknanan in a related case that had blocked the government from using an expanded version of SAVE to verify voters' citizenship.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 15:40

The Biggest Threat To Today's Data Centers Is In The Battery Room

Authored by David Ellis via Data Centre Dynamics,

As data centers continue to multiply, facilities are deploying industrial-scale Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) units by the hundreds and substation-size front-of-the-meter Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) to secure against grid failure, power surges, or other disruptions.

But while the battery units are looking after the servers, who is looking after the batteries?

In the last few years, lithium-ion batteries have become the backup power of choice for data center UPS and BESS systems, and for good reason. They have long lifespans, a small footprint, and superior energy density. While data centers tend to be safe, things can and do go wrong. When they do, it's almost always related to lithium-ion batteries.

The September 2025 data center fire in South Korea that led to a paralyzing nationwide outage in government services started with a single lithium battery explosion. Last year, a battery room at the Chirisa Technology Parks data center in Virginia caught fire twice in two months. Firefighters who responded to a May 2025 fire at an Oregon data center leased by X flagged the battery room as the source of the blaze. As the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) noted recently, "Nearly every notable fire event in data centers in recent years has involved lithium-ion batteries in some way."

The biggest safety threat to modern data centers' backup battery systems falls on a single culprit: hydrogen. When a lithium-ion cell begins to fail, internal temperatures rise rapidly, forcing a breakdown in the battery's internal chemistry. Hydrogen, the smallest and lightest molecule, is often the most measurable gas during the initial stages of failure. Unlike traditional vented lead-acid batteries, lithium-ion cells do not regularly emit hydrogen gas. When 'off-gassing' does occur, it usually means something has gone very wrong. Overcharging, cell damage, separator defects, internal short circuits, or even the formation of tiny lithium dendrites can trigger a state known as thermal runaway. If early warning detection systems are not installed, this is when things get dangerous fast.

Once thermal runaway is triggered, it's a self-sustaining chain reaction. Rising heat melts the battery's internal separator, causing a short circuit that rapidly generates heat. The extreme heat drives internal thermal decomposition, which releases fuel and oxygen. The release of oxygen feeds sustained combustion that can spike to more than 1,000°F (538°C) in a matter of seconds. Because the cell is sealed, the extreme heat and pressure cause the battery to burst into flames that can ignite neighboring cells and equipment.

While industry data shows a steady decline in BESS failure rates per gigawatt-hour of deployed capacity, the stakes are still high. Because the large-scale shift to lithium-ion battery configurations has only taken place during the last 3-5 years, hyperscalers, regulators, and insurers are beginning to catch up to the reality that lithium-ion deployments do not conform to legacy safety protocols.

Previous safety best practices that focused on ventilation to prevent critical concentrations of hydrogen during regular off-gassing are no longer sufficient for today's battery rooms. Energy-dense lithium-ion cells are often packed in enclosed cabinets. This makes for a small footprint that can trap volatile gas beyond the reach of traditional ventilation units. Given the potential for a sudden flare-up, the safety approach for these configurations has shifted from ventilation to early-stage off-gas detection.

Regulations and standards are evolving accordingly to prioritize early detection and prevent worst-case scenarios. Standards like NFPA 855 were designed specifically for lithium-ion deployments, mandating continuous gas detection alongside standard exhaust systems.

Destructive testing standards, like UL 9540A, generate the fire-propagation data that inform spacing and suppression requirements in model codes and standards like NFPA 855. Additionally, UL 2075, a standard covering gas and vapor detector performance, is now being used in modern BESS and UPS environments to certify specific gas or off-gas detectors used to monitor hydrogen and hazardous gas accumulation in battery rooms.

While the standards and regulations evolve, their practical implementation has not kept pace with the scale of data center deployments. Designing a battery room layout that complies with specific standards and local fire and safety requirements is not exactly intuitive, nor is it top-of-mind for data centers focused on uptime and speed-to-market. Backup battery systems are largely treated as a necessary investment to satisfy stakeholders. In practice, the safety systems underwriting hyperscale battery deployments are not just check-boxes; they're the first line of defense keeping the facility online and off the front-page news.

Anyone who has bought the wrong smoke detector for their home understands that not all safety equipment is created equal. Some battery room gas sensors are overly sensitive and cause false alarms, like the smoke detector that goes off anytime there's a pan on the stove. Some gas sensors quickly lose calibration and require regular maintenance. Other sensors are not designed for integration into today's smart anti-explosion and fire systems and building management systems.

When it comes to safety, too many data centers are left guessing. Industry standards and certification are making it easier for hyperscale operators to identify what they need to optimize safety. But with highly compressed timelines between standard operations and a thermal incident, it's critical to monitor the very first signs of catastrophe. For today's gigawatt-scale data centers, the earliest sign of failure isn't smoke or fire, but hydrogen silently venting in a battery cabinet.

Data centers are rightly focused on delivering massive compute density and next-generation AI chips, but the systems powering those capabilities need rigorous attention as well. Securing a multi-billion-dollar deployment goes beyond acknowledging the thermal risks inherent in modern backup power systems to actively tracking the element responsible for turning a potential risk into an active crisis.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/12/2026 - 15:00