Individual Economists

MiB: McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty Insurance

The Big Picture -



 

 

This week, I speak with McKeel Hagerty, CEO and Chairman of Hagerty. We discuss how he transformed the family boat insurance business into a “sexy” driver-forward business. We also discuss our love of collectable cars and his love of his first car, a Porsche, that he bought at the age of 13.

A transcript of our conversation is available here on Tuesday; A list of his current reading is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (video), YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Jason Wenks, founder and CEO of Altruist, a modern custodian built as a clean sheet from the ground up, fully integrated with artificial intelligence. He began his career at Morgan Stanley before launching Retirement Wealth Advisors, and then FormulaFolios. The through-line of his career has been creating lower-cost, tech-enabled, financial advice.

 

 

 

Current Reading/Favorite Books

Lots of musical bios:  Keith Richards, Slash others
Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy
Sonic Boom
George Washington
Benjamin Franklin
Wealth of Nations
entire Dune series
The Foundation series,

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The Anti-Amazon. One brilliant feature of the Costco experience is, paradoxically, the constraint: as opposed to Amazon, with its near infinite assortment, or even Walmart, which has approximately 130,000 SKUs (stock keeping units, or distinct items) in the average Supercenter, any given Costco will only hold 4,000 SKUs to choose from. While most retailers today assume that consumers want ever greater assortment, Costco’s popularity speaks to a countervailing desire for less choice. Indeed, the pre-selection of items for sale in their warehouses is part of the value proposition: not only are you going to get a lot of a particular thing for a good price, but you also won’t have to deliberate over micro-differences in a more robust assortment. Benjamin Fong on what a genuine alternative to Amazon’s logistics empire would require. A serious, wonky look past the everything-store. (Phenomenal World)

How do you solve a problem like social media? Part I It’s all well and good saying we should regulate social media. But social media is already regulated. So why is it failing? And what could we do in response? The first installment of a serious policy analysis of what regulation would actually look like—beyond the usual hand-wringing and congressional hearings that go nowhere. (Chaminda Jayanetti) see also At 17, She Sued Meta and Google, and Won. Now She’s Ready to Tell Her Story: Kaley Glenn-Mills’ lawsuit reshaped the fight to protect children from social media. She says she still can’t stop scrolling. . (Bloomberg free)

The Second Derivative: Why No One Understands the AI Boom: The market misremembers 2008. That same blind spot sits at the center of the AI boom. The second derivative problem: bulls and bears alike are arguing about the AI boom’s level when the rate of change is what matters. (Groundbrkr)

‘There Is No Going Back’: The Inside Story of Europe’s Rupture With America: Trump’s tariffs, threats against Greenland spurred a rebellion by top leaders; the limits of ‘flattery diplomacy’. The WSJ’s inside story of Europe’s rupture with America: “There is no going back.” The post-war alliance, unwinding in real time. (Wall Street Journal) see also The Canadian Who Steered Europe Away From the U.S. Facing threats from Trump, Mark Carney emerged as a central figure in a project to reshape the Western alliance The WSJ profiles the diplomat who helped Europe decouple from American strategic dependence — a realignment that will outlast any single administration. (Wall Street Journal)

The Great Blogging Collapse: What Happened to 100 Successful Blogs? [Study] I tracked 100 once-successful blogs over four years to understand what happened after Google’s Helpful Content Updates and the rise of AI Overviews. The results were striking: the median blog lost 85% of its organic traffic, while only 21 continued to grow. This study reveals the patterns behind the winners, the losers, and what it takes to build a blog that can survive in 2026.(Daniel Stanica)

What Makes Humans Stupid: It takes intelligence to get things spectacularly wrong. An essay on our undoing. Nautilus on the cognitive biases, social pressures, and structural incentives that systematically produce bad decisions—even among the smartest people. (Nautilus)

Capitalists Love This Podcast. So Do Their Critics. “Odd Lots” goes deep on lentils in Saskatchewan, the global tractor supply and trucking markets. Is it the skeleton key to understanding this strange economic moment? Congrats to Jope & Tracey!  The NYT profiles Odd Lots, the Bloomberg podcast that’s become required listening for both the financial establishment and the people who want to dismantle it. The rare show that doesn’t condescend to either audience. (New York Times)

The Inside Story Of Leverage Research 1.0 Between 2011-2019, Leverage Research explored the deep psychology of Effective Altruism and Silicon Valley, then suddenly dissolved among rumors of “demons.” What happened? Lydia Laurenson’s firsthand account of Leverage Research 1.0 — one of the rationalist movement’s stranger experiments, told from the inside. (Substack)

The Terrorist in the Brain: What Robin Williams and Bruce Willis can teach us about dementia—and about the industry that has grown up around our fear of it Skeptic on Lewy body dementia — the ‘terrorist in the brain’ that claimed Robin Williams and afflicts Bruce Willis — and what medicine can actually offer. (Skeptic)

How Lizzo Became One of Pop Culture’s Great Flops: The singer is experiencing a new form of downward mobility—and she’s not alone. The Atlantic on how Lizzo became one of pop culture’s great flops — a case study in how fast fame’s flywheel reverses. (The Atlantic)

Video of the day: Every Jon Favreau Movie, Explained by Jon Favreau | Vanity Fair

Be sure to check out our bonus episode of Master’s in Business with David Risher, CEO of Lyft, one of North America’s largest ride-sharing networks. He joined Lyft’s board in 2021 when the firm was burning cash and losing ground to Uber. Lyft has returned to profitability, with its stock rising more than 75% since Risher took the reins as CEO in 2023. In Q1 2026, the firm had 28.3 million active riders and did $4.9B in gross bookings, with $1.7B revs, and $132.8m in EBITDA. Previously, he held senior roles at Microsoft and Amazon.

Mag-7 underperformance returns top 5 S&P 500 weighting to the level 2 years ago

Source: Deutsche Bank Research Institute

 

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To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

 

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The Token Revolt Goes Mainstream: Palo Alto CEO Demands 90% AI Price Drop

Zero Hedge -

The Token Revolt Goes Mainstream: Palo Alto CEO Demands 90% AI Price Drop

Eight days ago it was Palantir's Alex Karp going ballistic on live television about the "effing insane" economics of renting intelligence by the token. On Thursday it was Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora's turn, and while his delivery was calmer, his number was not: Arora told CNBC that AI token prices need to fall as much as 90% before enterprise adoption can actually scale.

So the chief executive of one of the largest cybersecurity companies in the world - that buys this stuff at industrial scale - telling the frontier labs, on their favorite network, that their pricing model is broken by roughly an order of magnitude.

90% Or Bust

Arora wants token costs at roughly one-fifth of current levels within the next 12 months, and down 90% by the year after that. Arora joins a growing list of executives - Karp most loudly among them - calling out runaway token costs, and that the bill shock is already pushing corporate buyers toward cheaper open-weight alternatives, including Chinese models that are rapidly closing the capability gap with the American labs. Regular readers will recognize that migration: we have documented Coinbase cutting its internal AI spend nearly in half by defaulting engineers to Chinese open-weight models, Microsoft weighing a hosted DeepSeek variant for its own agentic tools, and OpenRouter data showing Chinese models capturing - in some periods - north of 60% of global token consumption among top models.

Altman Blinks First

The timing was not accidental. Arora's comments landed the same day OpenAI shipped its new GPT-5.6 family, with Sam Altman telling CNBC the latest model is 54% more token-efficient on agentic coding - a spec sheet line that doubles as a confession about what customers have been screaming at him for months. Asked about it, Arora offered the faintest of praise, calling the efficiency gain a good start before adding: "I think we probably need another turn at it."

Translation: nice 54%, now do it again. Twice.

None of this should surprise regular readers, who know OpenAI has been weighing drastic price cuts to claw enterprise customers back from Anthropic - the start of a classical deflationary race to the bottom - the opposite of what an industry burning tens of billions a year, and hoping to grow into trillion-dollar public valuations, actually needs. Altman himself conceded in June that cost had gone from a non-issue to a major one for customers. A month later, the "drastic cuts" are arriving dressed up as efficiency gains.

Meta Rising?

Also on Thursday, Meta launched Muse Spark 1.1, its first serious run at the agentic coding market that made Claude Code a phenomenon. Per Reuters figures cited by TechCrunch, Meta is charging $1.25 per million input tokens and $4.25 per million output tokens - parked right alongside the budget tiers of its rivals, Anthropic's Claude Haiku 4.5 and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Luna. Meta AI chief Alexandr Wang described the pricing as "very aggressive and attractive," and every new API account starts with $20 in free credits.

The launch was apparently important enough that Mark Zuckerberg posted on X for the first time in three years - his last post came in July 2023 - to pitch Spark as "a strong agentic and coding model at a very low price." Read that again: the CEO of a company spending well north of $100 billion a year on AI infrastructure, a company Wall Street is openly pressing for evidence of AI returns, broke a three-year social media silence to advertise that his product is cheap.

Meta also shipped its Muse Image generation model Tuesday, SpaceXAI dropped a new Grok, and OpenAI's GPT-5.6 family all landed inside the same 48 hours. 

The Math Has Not Changed

Arora's admission is the latest wake-up call - from the tokenmaxxing fiasco and the $500 million mystery Claude bill, to Uber capping AI coding spend after torching its 2026 agentic budget in four months, to UBS checks finding token costs are now a live issue for roughly 60% of enterprise customers - including one that got its first AI invoice and heard leadership respond, flatly, "we don't have the money for this."

And we aren't the only ones concerned about how this will go... As JPMorgan noted one month ago: falling prices do not automatically fix the customer's problem, but they absolutely wreck the seller's. Gartner's own work suggests that even a 90% collapse in inference costs may not shrink enterprise AI bills, because agentic consumption grows faster than prices fall and providers do not pass the savings through. Meanwhile Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok has laid out the mirror-image problem: if token prices converge toward zero, there is not enough revenue to support the hyperscaler buildout even in a world where compute demand keeps surging. Arora's 90% is the customer's survival number. It may also be the vendor's extinction number.

Meanwhile, the buildout is not slowing down to wait for the answer. Amazon raised $25 billion in debt this week to fund AI infrastructure, a month after SpaceX's $25 billion bond sale - while this very morning, SK Hynix pulled off the largest US listing ever by a foreign company, a $26.5 billion raise that saw its ADRs open 14% above the offer price. The pattern could not be cleaner: the companies selling the shovels are booking record raises at record valuations, on the same tape where the companies selling the tokens are being told to cut prices 90%.

All of which lands at a delicate moment for the two firms the price war is actually about. OpenAI has already pushed its IPO into 2027, and Anthropic's headline $47 billion ARR - a figure we treated with some skepticism when it was paraded ahead of the IPO filing - now faces its first print in a world where the customers have read their invoices and the competition includes Meta at $1.25 per million tokens.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 16:50

Apple Sues OpenAI Alleging Trade Secret Theft In Blockbuster AI Hardware Case

Zero Hedge -

Apple Sues OpenAI Alleging Trade Secret Theft In Blockbuster AI Hardware Case

Apple has filed a major lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California accusing OpenAI, io Products, and former Apple executives of misappropriating trade secrets to fast-track AI hardware development.

The complaint details a months-long scheme involving former Apple employees now at OpenAI. Key defendants include Tang Tan (OpenAI hardware lead and ex-Apple VP of product design) and Chang Liu (former Apple senior electrical engineer). Apple alleges they directed recruits to share confidential details on unreleased devices, components, manufacturing processes, and suppliers.

Specific claims, according to the WSJ, include Tan instructing interviewees to bring physical Apple hardware parts for review, retaining and distributing an internal Apple "Need to Know" departure security document, and using stolen supplier information to trick partners into using proprietary techniques. Liu is accused of downloading over a thousand pages of confidential files post-departure via a retained laptop and maintaining improper contacts at Apple for ongoing updates. (MacRumors)

“This case is about Apple’s former employees stealing Apple’s trade secrets for the benefit of OpenAI. Apple brings this suit to put a stop to it.”

Apple describes the conduct as “the tip of the iceberg” and states that OpenAI’s hardware efforts are “rotten to its core” due to reliance on misappropriated information. The company first contacted OpenAI in February with concerns but received no response. (9to5Mac)

In a response to inquiry by MacRumors, Apple said: 

“At Apple, our teams are constantly developing breakthrough technologies to create the best products and services in the world, and protecting their work and intellectual property is something we take very seriously. Recently, significant evidence has emerged suggesting individuals employed by OpenAI wrongfully took Apple’s secret and confidential information regarding our unreleased technologies, processes, and products. We will always defend our teams’ hard work and innovations, and we are taking all appropriate steps to do so.”

Apple seeks an injunction barring use or disclosure of the information, plus damages. The suit targets Tan and Liu for breach of contract but does not name Jony Ive or Sam Altman. It notes the Siri/ChatGPT partnership is not at issue and highlights that over 400 ex-Apple employees now work at OpenAI. 

This development occurs amid previously reported tensions, with OpenAI reportedly considering its own legal action against Apple over integration expectations. OpenAI is advancing hardware projects, including potential devices tied to its acquisition of Ive’s io startup. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 16:39

Myth Busted: U.S. Much Safer Than Many Peer Nations

Zero Hedge -

Myth Busted: U.S. Much Safer Than Many Peer Nations

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearInvestigations,

Conventional wisdom holds that the United States is the most violent and dangerous nation in the developed world. This dark view is frequently invoked by conservatives to demand stronger penalties for crimes and by progressives to argue for stronger gun laws.

At the same time, other nations point to crime as an Achilles heel of the American system. These include two peer nations with some of the most restrictive gun laws in the world - Australia and Canada. In 2025, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported that "the U.S. generally sees higher violent crime rates than many other countries." Last year, the Canadian Press similarly reported that "the number of police-reported violent crimes for every 100,000 people continue to be higher in the United States than in Canada."

The data, however, undercuts this narrative. While the United States still leads in some categories, on the whole it has significantly less violent crime per capita than those two nations.

Regarding homicide, the most heinous crime of all, it's true that in 2025, the U.S. murder rate was about four per 100,000 people - roughly twice Australia's and Canada's 2024 homicide rate. Yet it's also true that homicides account for only a tiny fraction of violent crime. In 2024, homicides represented just 0.21% of violent crimes in the U.S., based on National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) estimates of rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. Murder comprises an even smaller fraction of crimes in Australia and Canada.

Murders in the U.S. are usually highly concentrated geographically, often connected to street gang activity, and threaten only a tiny fraction of Americans. Just 2% of counties account for approximately 54% of all murders, and within those counties roughly two-thirds of killings occur within areas covering only about ten city blocks. By contrast, 53% of U.S. counties report no murders in a typical year, while another 16% report only one.

Moreover, when analyzing the incidence of a broader set of crimes, the U.S. is nowhere near the most dangerous developed country.

Ignoring Police

Because police statistics capture only a fraction of actual crime, the U.S., Canada, and Australia all conduct large-scale victimization surveys that estimate total crime, including incidents never reported to police. The Bureau of Justice Statistics has conducted the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which interviews roughly 240,000 Americans annually, for more than 50 years. Australia relies on a comparable survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, while Statistics Canada conducts the General Social Survey (GSS) on Safety and Victimization.

"Anyone who wants to understand the seriousness of crime in Canada needs to recognize that victimization surveys paint a more complete picture than police-reported crime," said Gary Mauser, who has extensively studied crime at Simon Fraser University in Canada.

The gap between police statistics and actual victimization is substantial. In Canada, the police-reported violent-crime rate is 885 per 100,000 people. The GSS reported a violent victimization rate almost 10 times that - 8,300 per 100,000.

Australia shows a similar pattern. Although the state of Victoria did not provide assault data to the ABS, only about 37% of robberies and sexual assaults were reported to police in 2024.

The U.S. data tell a very different story. Although the FBI does not collect national counts of simple assault, it recorded 1,203,808 violent crimes in 2019. During the same year, the NCVS estimated 2,013,220 felonious violent crimes - rape or sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault, excluding simple assault. Police reports therefore captured 59.8% of the NCVS estimate.

Using these broad estimates, Australia's rape and sexual assault rate is roughly three times higher than that of the United States. Australia's assault rate is about twice as high, and its burglary rate is about 2.5 times higher. Robbery is the only category where the two countries report similar rates.

But even this Australian data significantly understates the extent of violent crime because it counts victims rather than the number of crimes, unlike the U.S. data. If someone is robbed or sexually assaulted twice, the Australian survey records only one victimization, while the U.S. counts two separate crimes. As a result, Australia's survey misses repeat victimizations and understates the total amount of violent crime. Even modest adjustments suggest that Australia's violent crime rate is 15% higher than already discussed.

"For decades, researchers have documented that people report crimes more often when law enforcement is more likely to catch and punish the offenders," said David Mustard, a professor and crime expert at the University of Georgia. "The extremely low reporting rates in Australia and Canada therefore raise serious doubts about public confidence in their criminal justice systems."

Normalizing Rape

For example, in Canada in 2019, about 8.1% of total violent crimes resulted in the person being arrested and charged with the crime (210,000 arrested and charged out of 2.59 million victimizations), which is quite low even compared to the 20% rate in the U.S.

In Australia, there are numerous complaints that "Rape is effectively decriminalized." In New South Wales, of the 9,138 sexual assaults reported to police in 2022, there were only 1,016 convictions - just an 11% conviction rate. Indeed, during a recent lecture that I gave to college students in New South Wales in February, several women said there was no reason to report rapes and sexual assaults to the police because they believed nothing would happen to the criminal and it was personally embarrassing to come forward publicly.

As a result, an analysis based solely on police statistics can be misleading when comparing countries. Victimization surveys tell a different story. Although direct comparisons require some caution because the Canadian GSS and the U.S. NCVS define certain crimes like sexual assault differently, those differences generally favor Canada and make the U.S. appear relatively more violent.

Still, the results remain striking. In 2019, Canada's overall violent-crime victimization rate was at least 175% higher than the U.S. after adjusting for different methods. "Anyone who wants to understand just how serious crime is in Canada needs to recognize that crime rates are higher in Canada than in the U.S., according to victimization surveys," Mauser said.

Robbery offers an especially useful comparison because both surveys define it similarly. Canada's robbery victimization rate was 268% higher than the U.S. rate. Property crime follows a similar pattern. Canada's burglary rate was 259% higher than the U.S. rate.

Nor is this pattern unique to recent years. The International Crime Victimization Survey (ICVS), which used identical questions and definitions across participating countries before the United Nations assumed responsibility for the survey and later discontinued it, reached similar conclusions. In 2000, Australia's violent-crime victimization rate - including robbery, sexual incidents, assaults, and threats - was 104% higher than the U.S. rate. Robbery was 150% higher and sexual assaults 167.9% higher. The survey also found Canada's violent-crime victimization rate to be 40% higher than the U.S.

Few countries conduct victimization surveys, but the historical evidence from older ICVS data paints a similar picture. The ICVS found that England and Wales and Scotland had violent crime rates about 40% higher than the United States, while Finland's rate was about 20% higher. France, the Netherlands, and Sweden recorded rates roughly equal to the U.S., whereas Belgium and Poland experienced violent crime rates about 20% lower.

"The media's emphasis on reported crime badly underestimates how bad the violent crime situation in Australia is compared to the U.S.," Dr. Kesten C. Green, who has studied crime and is a researcher at the University of Adelaide Business School, tells RealClearInvestigations.

"Only victimization surveys capture both reported and unreported crimes, providing a far more complete picture

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 16:25

When Uncle Sam Turns Venture Capitalist, What Could Go Wrong?

Zero Hedge -

When Uncle Sam Turns Venture Capitalist, What Could Go Wrong?

Authored by James Varney via RealClearInvestigations,

The battery recycler Ascend Elements was riding high in 2023, flush with hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding.

The seed money provided to the Massachusetts company, which launched in 2017, was one of several large bets the Biden administration placed on the green future as it essentially created a venture capital arm at the Department of Energy and other agencies. In the movies, VCs almost always score big through their early investments in future behemoths (e.g., PayPal or Meta when it was Facebook). In real life, those jackpots are the exception, not the rule - many of the deals go south.

Alas, Washington isn't Hollywood, and the government isn't spending celluloid dollars. In April, Ascend Elements filed for bankruptcy, leaving U.S. taxpayers out nearly $320 million.

Government funding of private companies is receiving new scrutiny as the Trump administration is upping the ante on such efforts by demanding that the feds receive an equity stake for their largesse. While this approach is leading the government into uncharted waters, experts say the operative concept - using taxpayer money to make risky bets on private companies - has a long and troubled history. The bankruptcy of Solyndra, a maker of niche solar panels the Obama administration had given $535 million in 2009, became shorthand for the problems that occur when government tries to pick winners and losers in the marketplace.

"It generally doesn't work," said Steven Neil Kaplan, a professor of entrepreneurship and innovation at the University of Chicago's Booth business school. "There are three problems with it, namely that the government doesn't usually have the best information; two, it's going to be political; and three, the incentives aren't in place to pay for performance."

It is still too early to assess the Trump administration's investments in private corporations, but the hundreds of billions of dollars shoveled out the door by the Biden administration through the Investment Infrastructure and Jobs Act provide some insight into the challenges the government faces when it turns into a venture capitalist. RealClearInvestigations' review of one sliver of that spending - $1.68 billion in grants awarded in 2023 under the umbrella of "Energy, Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Energy Programs, Energy" - demonstrates how difficult it can be to follow the money and assess the impact when taxpayer funds are doled out to private corporations.

Foreign Assets

The grants reviewed by RCI all went to companies involved in the electric vehicle battery market, either in terms of making the batteries themselves or generating the various elements that comprise an EV battery. Unlike the billions doled out by Biden's EPA through its Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund - which made the regulatory agency a large grant maker for the first time - these Energy Department deals went to existing for-profit companies rather than startups or newly formed nonprofit organizations. RCI's analysis of the DOE grants did not find any of the glaring political connections it uncovered in the EPA disbursements.

Ascend Elements marked the biggest taxpayer bet within that package, but there were several others of $100 million or more, according to the Treasury Department's usaspending.gov. The grants represent venture capital-like moves by the Biden administration to jumpstart and expand renewable energy initiatives in the name of fighting global warming.

Although taxpayer money is presumably spent in accordance with the government's enumerated duties and to benefit Americans, some of the large grants went to companies that are enjoying more support abroad than at home.

For example, Synesqo Specialty Polymers USA, a branch of a Belgian company traded on European exchanges, received $178.2 million. Mike Finelli, Syensqo's chief technology and innovation officer, highlighted the company's moves in Europe rather than the U.S. in his response to RCI.

"Syensqo has recently launched a new company in Europe to help scale up commercial demonstration of advanced materials for solid-state batteries in Europe," he said. "In the U.S., although the policy and cost environment is supportive, market growth is evolving at a measured pace. ... Importantly, the U.S. Department of Energy grant awarded in 2023 remains active, with discussions ongoing, and we continue to serve the market from our existing production in France."

Similarly, $100 million went to Group 14, a private company in Washington state that is "building the world's largest factory for advanced silicon battery material."

The company, which says it has raised roughly $1 billion for the Washington facility it hopes to open this year, acquired an ownership stake in a South Korea factory last year.

Group 14 did respond to a request for comment.

Critics of directing government funds to private companies say it can also be difficult to assess the impact of the grants - and how the money was spent - because corporations are not obligated to answer the public's questions about their businesses. While the taxpayers may have provided a substantial chunk of these companies' financing, they are responsible to their shareholders, not taxpayers.

The "Market Test"

Walter Block, an economist on the faculty of Loyola University in New Orleans, said the Energy Department's 2023 grants also raised related questions about whether taxpayers are bankrolling companies that have not yet passed "the market test."

"The government shouldn't be involved in any of that," said Block, a proponent of the Austrian school of economics, which prioritizes free-market principles. "Taxpayers have a right to ask how and why these things were done if the company isn't viable in the market."

Final grades on some of the outstanding grants can be difficult to judge when, as is the case with several of these grants, the recipients are private companies. Synesqo, however, is traded on European markets. When it received a large injection of federal cash in 2023, its stock traded near $95 per share, but its value has since declined by nearly 30%.

And to Kaplan's point about who is making the grant decisions, that remains a mystery. Although Energy Secretary Chris Wright has trumpeted the cancellation of various Biden-era deals, the department did not respond to RCI's multiple requests for comment. Synesqo was the only company to respond to questions.

The hope that the government, with its vast resources, can goose innovation is not new. The U.S. government's longstanding support for basic research has led to many medical and technological breakthroughs, including radar and the Internet.

Many of those achievements, however, have come through more traditional grants to America's great research universities, and a separate batch of such grants was also part of Biden's green energy spending. Governments at all levels have also sought to spur business development and innovation by offering tax incentives, though usually with mixed results.

Venture capital, essentially seed money, is different and unlike more familiar government contracts, such as those for defense contracts or highways and roads. Those arrangements carry their own ethical temptations, ranging from pay-to-play schemes to overt political support, that have made politics infamous, from Tammany Hall to modern-day Chicago or Louisiana. It is those sorts of alleged insider deals that were leveled against the Biden family and now against President Trump and his offspring.

Necessary Investments

Still, not everyone is opposed to the government making admittedly risky bets. Some consulting companies actually pitch businesses on considering federal sources for venture capital.

Fred Block, a sociology professor at the University of California, Davis, whose work has been applied to venture capital models, notes that some level of success has been achieved by the Small Business Administration's Small Business Innovation Research Program.

In addition, a 2006 study by Block and some colleagues on 100 "winners" picked by the trade publication Research & Development showed that at some point in their development, federal money had assisted 88 of them.

"The key point is the necessity of government involvement with cutting-edge projects," Block told RCI. He noted how private research entities like RCA's once-fabled Sarnoff Corporation are no longer around.

"You have to have collaboration between different kinds of specialists and no private company can afford to have all those people on staff," he said.

Kaplan had also cited the SBA loans as a case where government venture money often bears fruit, but those are much smaller investments and must adhere to strict guidelines. And unlike the Energy Department grants under Biden or some of the moves made by the Trump administration, SBA decisions are made by teams of professionals rather than an anonymous federal apparatus. Again, the issue comes back to the quality of information available and who makes the calls.

"They've developed the expertise," UC Davis's Block said. "Now that appears to be gone. Who knows who or how decisions are being made now? Maybe Trump makes them in the middle of the night."

Big Money for Recipients

While none of the individual deals stand out in terms of the federal government's enormous spending, they often represent big money for individual recipients: The $82 million that went to Cirba Solutions, a battery recycling outfit in Charlotte, N.C., for instance, amounted to nearly twice the company's estimated annual revenue of $39.5 million.

That sort of proportion also shows how these Department of Energy grants are different from similar big economic moves Washington has made, such as propping up the savings and loan and auto industries, or trying to keep markets solvent.

Critics of both the gigantic spending on green energy specifically, and the effort to wrench the American economy away from the fossil fuels that power most of it, warned that more Solyndras are possible.

"What's the point of Congress authorizing billions of spending with almost no oversight?" asked Daniel Turner, the executive director of Power The Future, a conservative group concentrating on rural power. "Of course we should be concerned about what might happen. It's absurd to have funneled so much money to green technology companies without market approval."

Yet even in proven markets, the risks inherent in the government taking huge stakes in companies are problematic.

"When there's so much money involved, are there conditions?" asked Thomas Pyle, president of the American Energy Alliance, which does not accept government donations. "There's something very pernicious, very suspect about the idea of the government being venture capitalists, and there's so much more at stake when it's taxpayer dollars involved."

There is also the possibility that a company backed by federal money makes it big, in which case new questions arise about equity, how the government may define success as venture capitalists, and whether the government may try to become an active investor, looking to influence personnel and other decisions at the company. Those factors are on top of the hoary conflicts of interest that have long bedeviled government moves.

Those questions are likely to multiply in the coming years as both parties seem more open to the government owning stock in private companies. The Trump administration has already received billions of dollars in equity stakes for money funneled to private companies (mostly tied to national security), and Sen. Bernie Sanders has introduced legislation that could give the U.S. a 50% ownership of the largest AI companies. Neither the Trump administration nor Sanders' office responded to requests for comment.

Kaplan outlined some steps the government could take to improve the process, such as only backing companies that have already passed "the market test" or shown an ability to raise significant capital. Even then, however, the same terms should attach to a government grant that do to the private investments, and thus the entire practice is problematic and best avoided, he said.

"It's just rife with conflict and bad information," Kaplan told RCI. "For a private investor, if you're negative, you go out of business. But if it's the government and it goes negative, they raise your taxes."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 14:15

Federal Judge Orders DHS Not To Obey Order From Another Judge

Zero Hedge -

Federal Judge Orders DHS Not To Obey Order From Another Judge

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge on July 8 said the Trump administration must not comply with an order from another federal judge and must continue to have key functions of an immigration database disabled.

The Department of Homeland Security building in Washington on March 25, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Judge Sparkle Sooknanan of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia said that officials with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and other agencies shall keep disabled the ability to look up Social Security numbers and carry out mass uploads in the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) system.

Sooknanan ordered the Trump administration in June to disable the features, finding that recent updates to the database violated privacy laws by disclosing Americans' Social Security numbers and other sensitive information.

Sooknanan said on July 8 that arguments from the government in favor of pausing her previous order were unpersuasive, including the argument that highlighted a July 7 ruling from Judge T. Kent Wetherell II of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Florida that ordered DHS to enable the functions for four states under a 2025 settlement that he had approved.

Wetherell had noted that he could have waited until the case in Washington proceeded, but that the four states had presented "unrebutted evidence showing that they are suffering real and concrete harm every day that passes without the disabled features of the SAVE system."

He said that Sooknanan could have deferred to his previous determination that the functions were lawful, which was reached, he said, in part because the Social Security Act does not preclude disclosing Social Security numbers for immigration enforcement.

Sooknanan disagreed, describing Wetherell as having "erred in significant ways," including by reaching a decision on the merits in the case without opinions from parties outside the federal and state governments that oppose the governments' position.

Sooknanan said that settlements may warrant reexamination and that she acted properly by enjoining DHS from allowing officials to use the new features introduced in 2025 despite the existence of the settlement.

Even if Wetherell's ruling ends up holding, the settlement is only with DHS, not the Social Security Administration (SSA), and only with four states, the judge wrote, so it would not prompt a stay of her earlier order with respect to the other 46 states.

DHS, which had declined to comment on Wetherell's decision, did not return a request for comment on Sooknanan's ruling by the time of publication.

The four states have not reacted to the competing rulings.

The Electronic Privacy Information Center and the League of Women Voters, the plaintiffs in the case overseen by Sooknanan, asked Wetherell this week to allow them to intervene in the case involving the states, citing the contradictory orders and their interest in the situation. He has not yet ruled on the motion.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 13:25

Three Reasons Gas Prices Are Likely To Remain Elevated

Zero Hedge -

Three Reasons Gas Prices Are Likely To Remain Elevated

The US national average for regular 87-octane gasoline remained uncomfortably above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon threshold for roughly two and a half months. That stretch pressured lower-income consumers, forcing many to trade down or cut discretionary spending while weighing on broader consumer sentiment. The key question now is whether pump prices have further room to fall or whether current levels will become the new normal this summer.

Answering that question is Goldman's leading commodity expert Daan Struyven, who penned a note on Thursday explaining the three forces keeping pump prices high:

Reason #1: Tight Refining Fundamentals

Exhibit 4: The Global Refining Utilization Rate Was Near Historical Highs Before the Hormuz Shock

Exhibit 5: Refined Oil Products Stocks Are Low

Reason #2: Ongoing Refined Products Supply Shocks

Exhibit 6: Combined Refinery Outages in Russia and the Middle East Are 4.6mb/d Above Their Seasonal Normss

Reason #3: Asymmetric Passthrough

Exhibit 7: Firms Look Much More Likely to Report Selling Price Increases After Energy Prices Rise—Such as in 2021 and 2022—Than Report Selling Price Decreases When Energy Prices Fall—Like in 2023 and 2024

Struyven's three reasons suggest that the recent declines in the national average prices of gasoline, diesel, and other refined fuels may prove limited.

Professional subscribers can read more on energy markets and Gulf/Hormuz at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 13:05

World's First Commercial Nuclear-Powered Satellite Set For Launch Aboard SpaceX Rocket

Zero Hedge -

World's First Commercial Nuclear-Powered Satellite Set For Launch Aboard SpaceX Rocket

Authored by Mrigakshi Dixit via Interesting Engineering,

Miami-based City Labs is all set to launch the world's first commercial nuclear-powered satellite into orbit.

NanoTritium battery Citi Labs

Solar panels have some challenges. When a satellite slips into the shadow of the Earth, hits a permanently dark lunar crater, or drifts into deep space, its solar arrays become useless. Batteries can step in, but they eventually die.

City Labs thinks nuclear energy could solve this persistent problem. On July 7, the company announced that its BOHR (Betavoltaic Orbital High-Reliability) satellite had secured a launch slot on a SpaceX Transporter-17 rideshare mission.

According to reports, SpaceX has scheduled the launch of its Transporter-17 rideshare mission for Tuesday, July 7, at 3:10 a.m. ET. The launch will mark a massive historic milestone. BOHR will be the first-ever nuclear CubeSat to enter orbit.

"This is a historic step for commercial nuclear power in space," said Peter Cabauy, CEO of City Labs. "BOHR demonstrates that safe, compact, and regulatory-approved nuclear power systems are ready for routine commercial deployment. This capability enables persistent, always-on payload operations that are not constrained by sunlight or battery life."

Secures FAA approval

Engineered for safe handling, transportation, and integration into standard commercial launch environments, City Labs' tritium-based power systems operate at extremely low radiation levels.

BOHR's core technology is City Labs' proprietary NanoTritium™ betavoltaic system, which generates continuous power from the natural beta decay of tritium rather than nuclear fission.

Compared to space-bound nuclear reactors, betavoltaic cells operate with no moving parts, no liquid electrolytes, and zero risk of fire or thermal runaway. Furthermore, as the tritium fuel naturally decays, it harmlessly transforms into helium-3, a completely stable and non-radioactive isotope.

This process operates at safe, ultra-low radiation levels suitable for standard commercial handling. In this mission, the nuclear battery will run and validate the primary payload independently, while a solar power system manages the main satellite bus operations.

Getting a nuclear payload onto a commercial rocket isn't easy.

In fact, it requires cutting through some of the toughest regulatory red tape on Earth. BOHR represents the first commercial space mission to successfully navigate the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) pathway for nuclear launch approval, a framework established under National Security Presidential Memorandum-20. The safety analysis was led by City Labs' Kevin Makinson and independently validated by Sandia National Laboratories.

The FAA issued its definitive payload authorization on September 30, 2025.

Advancing space exploration

Backed by the Department of War, NASA, and the Air Force Research Laboratory, the mission arrives at a key time for space exploration.

NASA's Artemis program aims to establish a permanent human presence on the Moon. Therefore, the demand for continuous, light-independent power sources is skyrocketing. It could position this satellite as a pathfinder for future deep-space operations.

"This milestone establishes a new class of spacecraft capabilities, enabling persistent operation of critical subsystems where traditional power systems fall short. This includes deep space, permanently shadowed lunar regions, and long-duration autonomous sensor networks," the company stated in the press release.

As a result, the BOHR mission will serve as a vital pathfinder for future nuclear-powered spacecraft supporting both civil and national security operations. When SpaceX's Falcon 9 lifts off, it will be launching the next era of nuclear-powered space exploration.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 12:45

Federal Appeals Court Upholds Illinois Ban On 'Assault Weapons'

Zero Hedge -

Federal Appeals Court Upholds Illinois Ban On 'Assault Weapons'

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal appeals court on July 9 upheld Illinois’s ban on the sale and possession of “assault weapons” and large capacity magazines, overturning a lower court ruling that had blocked enforcement of the law.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker signed the Protect Illinois Communities Act into law in January 2023 after a gunman killed seven people in a 2022 shooting during an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago. A federal judge overturned the law in 2024, finding it violated the Second Amendment right to bear arms, but the injunction was later stayed after the state appealed.

In a 2–1 decision on July 9, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit concluded that the state’s ban is “consistent with the principles that underpin our nation’s tradition of firearm regulation.”

“In short, legislatures have long imposed restrictions on particularly dangerous weapons, and the Act is but another chapter in that story,” the order stated.

The appeals court said that semiautomatic rifles are rarely used for self-defense, citing an analysis that found handguns accounted for the majority of defensive gun uses.

Circuit Judge Michael Brennan dissented, saying the Illinois law contradicts the nation’s regulatory traditions that “forbid governments from prohibiting firearms commonly owned for self-defense.”

“Because the people have overwhelmingly chosen the AR-15 rifle and its magazine as their weapon of choice, they are protected by the Second Amendment,” the judge stated.

In a social media post, Pritzker called the ruling “a victory in the fight to end gun violence.” The governor said the state will continue enforcing its ban on “assault weapons” and high-capacity magazines.

The National Shooting Sports Foundation, a plaintiff in the case, said the appeals court erred in its ruling on modern sporting rifles (MSRs) and planned to seek the Supreme Court’s review.

“There are more than 32 million MSRs in circulation today, making these semiautomatic, centerfire rifles commonly owned and commonly used by nearly every standard,” the firearms industry trade association said in a statement.

“Likewise, there are hundreds of millions of standard-capacity magazines owned by law-abiding Americans in the United States.”

The Protect Illinois Communities Act criminalizes the sale and purchase of certain types of semiautomatic rifles and large capacity of ammunition.

Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul said in a statement that the weapons ban was intended to protect public safety.

“This is a win that enhances public safety in Illinois,” he said. “We have seen the damage that assault weapons and large-capacity magazines can inflict, and these weapons of war have no place in our communities.”

The Supreme Court said last month that it will consider whether bans on semiautomatic rifles, often called “assault weapons,” violate the Second Amendment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 12:05

Watch: New Video Shows McConnell Wheeled Out On Stretcher After June Cardiac Emergency At D.C. Home

Zero Hedge -

Watch: New Video Shows McConnell Wheeled Out On Stretcher After June Cardiac Emergency At D.C. Home

New video shows emergency responders loading Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) onto a stretcher and into an ambulance outside his Capitol Hill residence on the morning of June 14, the same day the longtime Senate Republican leader was hospitalized.

The neighbor-recorded footage, first published Friday by CNN, depicts emergency vehicles - including multiple ambulances and a fire truck - clogging the street near McConnell's home as first responders wheel a person identified by witnesses as the 84-year-old senator toward an ambulance. The individual's face is not clearly visible in the video, but their lower legs and feet were seen under an orange blanket.

Dispatch Audio Cited Cardiac Arrest And CPR

The video adds new weight to emergency dispatch audio previously obtained by an independent journalist and reported by CNN. In that recording, responders were dispatched to McConnell's known address for an "unconscious" person experiencing a "cardiac arrest," with a paramedic heard saying "CPR in progress."

A neighbor who spoke with CNN said officers described it only as a "medical emergency" at the time but confirmed through another eyewitness that the person on the stretcher was McConnell. No sirens were used as the ambulance left the scene.

Prolonged Hospitalization Raises Questions

McConnell has remained hospitalized for nearly a month. His office has released only terse updates saying he is "receiving excellent care" and "continues his recovery," with few specifics on his condition or prognosis. The opacity has fueled rampant speculation in Washington political circles and on social media.

Some Republican allies, including Senate Majority Leader John Thune and commentator Scott Jennings, have said they've spoken with McConnell recently and described his voice as strong. Still, the lack of detailed medical disclosures stands in contrast to the public nature of the emergency response now coming into view. Others mocked it as covering up for 'weekend at Mitch's.'

The incident marks the latest health scare for McConnell, who has a well-documented history of falls, concussions and other episodes. As a towering figure in Senate Republican politics for decades, his extended absence continues to ripple through the chamber and the broader party.

McConnell's office declined to comment on the new video or audio.

This story is developing.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:45

RFK Jr. Plans To Create A List Of Injuries Caused By COVID-19 Vaccines

Zero Hedge -

RFK Jr. Plans To Create A List Of Injuries Caused By COVID-19 Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health officials are proposing a plan to clarify which COVID-19 vaccine side effects would be eligible for government financial compensation, according to a new notice.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Minneapolis on May 21, 2026. David Berding/Getty Images

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and one of its divisions said in a description of a proposed rule released on July 1 that they plan to establish an injury table for COVID-19 vaccines through the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP).

"The Table will list and explain injuries that, based on compelling, reliable, valid, medical, and scientific evidence, are presumed to be caused by covered COVID-19 countermeasures, and set forth the time periods in which the onset of these injuries must occur after the administration or use of these covered COVID-19 countermeasures," a summary of the rule, which has not been made public, stated.

COVID-19 vaccines fall under the CICP because previous health secretaries declared and extended emergency declarations for COVID-19, which opened up the option of emergency clearance of vaccines and other countermeasures under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who just announced that he was ending the emergency declaration, is authorized under the declarations to provide benefits to people injured by the vaccines under the act, HHS officials noted in the proposal summary.

"Under the leadership of Secretary Kennedy, HHS is restoring transparency and accountability because the American people deserve clear, evidence-based information about both the benefits and the known risks associated with medical countermeasures," an HHS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email.

The spokesperson said that more information will be available when the notice is published in the Federal Register.

Aaron Siri, Kennedy's former lawyer, wrote to Kennedy in 2025, urging him to create a COVID-19 vaccine-injury table. He pointed to the readiness and preparedness law, which states that the health secretary "shall by regulation establish a table identifying covered injuries that shall be presumed to be directly caused by the administration or use of a covered countermeasure."

An injury table would help people injured by vaccines apply successfully to the congressionally created program, which requires "compelling, reliable, valid, medical, and scientific evidence" that an injury was a direct result of a countermeasure, Siri wrote on behalf of the Informed Consent Action Network, which advocates for government transparency and change.

"A well-constructed injury table is needed for the CICP," Richard Hughes IV, a former Moderna executive who is representing health groups in litigation against the administration that has halted some of its changes to vaccine guidance, told The Epoch Times in an email. "The real question is whether this administration would promulgate such a table or weaponize it to further platform misinformation."

Dr. Joel Wallskog, who suffered the neurological disorder transverse myelitis and other issues from COVID-19 vaccination and has sued the government over the CICP, told The Epoch Times in an email that the HHS proposal "is more appearance than substance."

"It appears to do little more than streamline the process for the relatively small number of individuals whose injuries - primarily anaphylaxis and myocarditis/pericarditis - are already recognized under the current system," added Wallskog, also the co-chair of the React19 nonprofit, which offers support to people injured by COVID-19 vaccines. "For everyone else who has been denied, nothing changes."

Erica Samp, who says she was injured by a COVID-19 vaccine, said in a post on X that she supported the plan but that she's watching to see what details are included, including the covered injuries.

The CICP is both administered and adjudicated by HHS officials. It has compensated some people who have said COVID-19 vaccination caused health issues, but rejected others, including people such as Wallskog, whom doctors diagnosed as being injured by COVID-19 vaccines, The Epoch Times previously reported.

The CICP has, through June, compensated 60 COVID-19 vaccine injury claims, nearly all for myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation. The average compensation has been $4,000, aside from a few large payments, and about 99 percent of applications have been rejected.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine said in 2024 that COVID-19 vaccines definitely cause myocarditis and shoulder injuries, but that other possible harms could not be conclusively linked to the shots.

Some outside organizations, such as React19, have said that the available evidence supports a link between the vaccines and additional problems.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:25

Mitsubishi Motors Joins Physical AI Race With Humanoid Robot Production Deal

Zero Hedge -

Mitsubishi Motors Joins Physical AI Race With Humanoid Robot Production Deal

Mitsubishi Motors shares surged as much as 17% in Tokyo on Friday after the automaker unveiled a deal with the University of Tokyo startup Highlanders to mass-produce humanoid robots, signaling a push beyond its core automotive business and reinforcing a broader trend we have highlighted that could sweep across the global auto industry.

Highlanders signed an MOU with Mitsubishi Motors to develop humanoid robots for automotive factories and mass production at Mitsubishi's Kyoto plant as early as 2027. Early production runs could amount to 1,000 per month. 

The Japanese automaker plans to test the humanoids in its own facilities to address labor shortages and increasingly complex manufacturing, using operational data to guide a broader rollout. Mitsubishi has already invested in Highlanders.

Citi analyst Arifumi Yoshida wrote in his first take that the partnership between Mitsubishi Motors and Highlanders is "positive" for the automaker's stock, as it signals a push into physical AI:

After the July 9 market close, Mitsubishi Motors announced an MOU with Short-Term View: Upside Highlanders, a University of Tokyo startup, for the mass production of Price (09 Jul 26 15:30) ¥330.6 humanoid robots at its Kyoto plant. Production will begin in early 2027, Target price ¥420.0 with monthly production capacity of c1,000 units prepared. Highlanders will handle development and sales, while Mitsubishi Motors will leverage Expected share price return 27.0% its automotive production expertise in quality and other areas to provide Expected dividend yield 3.0% production and development support. Mitsubishi Motors has invested in Expected total return 30.1% Highlanders and is considering additional investment. The company plans Market Cap ¥442,459M to utilize the robots in Mitsubishi Motors factories while marketing them US$2,742M as Japan-originated physical AI products to diverse industries domestically and internationally. Multiple inquiries have already been received. We believe the stock market will welcome this initiative to expand its automotive business expertise into physical AI, which has also been earmarked as a national priority.

Mitsubishi Motors shares in Tokyo closed up 10% on Friday but remain at 2022 lows.

In recent weeks, Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee pointed out, "OEMs are entering humanoid robotics to boost productivity and unlock new revenue streams." Read the note here.

Lee noted, "Automakers have several advantages across hardware, software, and scale. There is significant overlap between vehicle and humanoid components—motors, reducers, sensors —as well as manufacturing."

It appears that Mitsubishi Motors is following other automakers, including Tesla and several Chinese companies, in making a big push into humanoid robotics development and mass production. EVs and humanoid robots share similar component ecosystems, manufacturing processes, and supply chains, giving automakers a potential advantage in scaling up production.

Here is a complete overview of the automakers developing humanoid robots:

Humanoid production ramps globally begin next year. Read report.

Does this suggest that legacy US automakers will eventually partner with humanoid robotics firms? What about Rivian and Lucid? The race for physical AI is underway.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:05

UAE Oil Output Hits All-Time High, Doubling Pre-Crisis Levels

Zero Hedge -

UAE Oil Output Hits All-Time High, Doubling Pre-Crisis Levels

Confirming reports from earlier this week, the latest estimates from the International Energy Agency signaled that the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which unexpectedly quit OPEC earlier this year in a shock move that threatened the cohesion of OPEC, produced 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in June, its highest output ever.

The UAE’s crude oil production jumped from 3.3 million bpd in May to 4.1 million bpd in June after the country left OPEC effective May 1, started raising output, and managed to sneak a lot of exports out of the Middle East even as the Strait of Hormuz was mostly blockaded for the first half of June.

The crude oil production in June, at 4.1 million bpd, was the highest ever on record for the UAE, nearly double the output in March 2026 at the start of the Hormuz crisis. The production level also topped the previous record of 4 million bpd from the spring of 2020 when the OPEC+ producers were fighting for market share in a brief price war during peak Covid, according to OilPrice.com

The UAE has sought to adapt to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by sneaking tankers in dark mode through the Strait and increasingly offering to sell many of its crude grades for loading offshore Fujairah and at Sohar in Oman, outside the Strait.

Moreover, the Abu Dhabi national oil company ADNOC accelerated plans to have a new pipeline operational in 2027 that would double its oil export capacity through Fujairah, which sits outside the Strait of Hormuz.

ADNOC plans to build a new project, the West-East 1 Pipeline, which is expected to become operational next year and double the UAE’s energy giant’s export capacity through the Emirate of Fujairah to meet global demand for energy supplies.

The national oil company also plans to plans to award as much as $55 billion (200 billion UAE dirhams) on upstream and downstream projects over the next two years. The announcement of accelerated growth came days after the UAE said it would quit OPEC effective May 1 to pursue its national interests.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:03

IEA Warns Escalation In US-Iran Hostilities Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast

Zero Hedge -

IEA Warns Escalation In US-Iran Hostilities Could Upend Oil Surplus Forecast

Despite the tentative recovery of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the first build-up in global stocks since the war began, this week’s re-escalation of the U.S.-Iran hostilities could flip the outlook for an oil market surplus for next year, the International Energy Agency said on Friday. 

Oil prices have plunged since the United States and Iran signed the memorandum of understanding (MoU) in the middle of June, with North Sea Dated prices down by $31 per barrel in June to $68 a barrel by early July, their lowest since January and $2 per barrel below pre-war levels, OilPrice reported.

And while the oil market is still expected to move to significant surplus towards the end of the year, IEA said that this is heavily predicated on the assumption that tanker flows through the Strait will gradually recover: “An escalation in hostilities on 7-8 July, however, clouds the outlook and could upend the forecast that sees the market flipping to a surplus next year,” the IEA said in its closely watched Oil Market Report for July

Since the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, tankers have rushed to exit the Persian Gulf, including millions of barrels of Iranian crude that Tehran couldn’t move past the U.S. blockade between mid-April and mid-June. As a result, global oil supply rebounded by a massive 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 98.8 million bpd in June, amid a partial recovery in Gulf production, the IEA said.

However, global oil output remained about 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels, with supply on track to decline by an average of 3.7 million bpd to 102.6 million bpd in 2026, “contingent on a swift de-escalation of renewed hostilities.” Meanwhile tanker crossings have slowed to a trickle, while insurers are reportedly demanding a pound of flash, with Reuters reported that “war insurance for ships inside the Gulf has already ticked higher towards 3% of a vessel’s value, up from 2% at the end of last week.” Meanwhile, quotes for coverage as high as 5% are still circulating. 

At the same time, global demand - which was hit by demand destruction when crude prices topped $100 early this year - is starting to recover from the lows seen in the second quarter, with annual declines easing from 4.8 million bpd in April-June to an expected yearly drop of 1.7 million bpd in the third quarter, the IEA reckons.

Despite the wave of crude managing to clear the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks, product supply and deliveries are much slower to rebound, with the markets still tight, the agency noted.

“The disconnect between apparently well supplied crude oil markets and tight product markets underpinned a rally in cracks and refinery margins to four-year highs by early July,” said the IEA.

“While concerns over jet fuel shortages have eased in recent weeks after refiners pushed output to new highs, diesel and gasoline markets have tightened, with gasoline cracks moving sharply higher.”

Here are the key highlights from the report:

  • On demand, there has been significant sequential improvement with +1.2mbd YoY growth forecast in 4Q vs. -1.7mbd YoY in 3Q and -4.8mbd YoY in 2Q.  For context, Asia accounted for 2/3 of the peak demand drop. Overall, demand forecast increased slightly vs. last month report with 2026 now -1mbd YoY and 2027 +2mbd YoY (vs. -0.7mbd and +2.1mbd GS Research forecasts).
  • On supply, June increased by 4.1mbd MoM to 98.8mbd, although still 9.4mbd below pre-war levels. Focusing on the Gulf, total June exports increased 6.5mbd MoM to 16.1mbd vs. 24mbd pre-war average.  In particular, it is worth noting that UAE (who recently left OPEC+) produced record volumes in June with further growth expected. 
  • Inventory data showed 21mb increase in June, the first increase in four months following 360mb decline from March to May.  The IEA said that 69% of the proposed 400mb emergency inventory release has been completed, with uncertainty over the timing of release of the balance. 
  • A recovery in world oil demand is underway, with consumption set to rise from its May nadir on seasonal trends and as pent-up demand is released in line with a rebound in product supplies. Annual contractions ease from 4.8 mb/d in 2Q26 to 1.7 mb/d in 3Q26, followed by a rise of 1.2 mb/d in 4Q26, for an overall decline of 1 mb/d this year. Forecast growth of 2 mb/d in 2027 results in a two-year pace of expansion well below historical trends. 
  • Global oil supply rebounded by a sharp 4.1 mb/d to 98.8 mb/d in June, as a resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz underpinned a partial recovery in Gulf production. World output was nevertheless some 9.4 mb/d below pre-war levels, with supply on track to decline by an average of 3.7 mb/d to 102.6 mb/d in 2026, contingent on a swift de-escalation of renewed hostilities. If transit volumes improve, oil supply will expand by 7.5 mb/d next year. 
  • Refined product cracks and margins surged to four-year highs in early July, as increased crude supplies pushed oil prices sharply lower, while product markets remained tight. Global refinery runs rose by 1.5 mb/d in June, down 6 mb/d y-o-y, with Middle East export refineries yet to restart, Russian throughputs curtailed by attacks and Asia still running at reduced rates. Global runs are expected to decline by 2.4 mb/d this year and rebound by 3.1 mb/d in 2027. 
  • Global observed oil inventories rose for the first time in four months in June, by 21 mb, as sharply higher oil on water volumes more than offset continued draws in onshore tanks. Following a decline of 73 mb in May, total OECD stocks fell by a further 62 mb in June, of which an estimated 44 mb came from government stock releases. Non-OECD crude stocks eased by 37 mb in June, led by a 41 mb draw in China. 
  • Benchmark crude oil prices continued to spiral lower in June, erasing all of their wartime gains, as tanker traffic out of the Gulf picked up and market focus shifted to the prospect of oversupply. North Sea Dated crude plunged by $22/bbl m-o-m, to around $68/bbl, with prompt time spreads reverting to contango. Prices rose after the ceasefire agreement was breached on 7-8 July, with Dated trading around $77/bbl at the time of writing. 

Here is the full visual recap, courtesy of Goldman

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 11:01

No Takers, Nor Tankers

Zero Hedge -

No Takers, Nor Tankers

By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank

Daily crossings through the Strait of Hormuz increased substantially after the US and Iran announced a “peace” agreement in mid-June. However, those numbers have started to dwindle as the ceasefire—peacefire, shmeasefire—appears increasingly shaky. According to Bloomberg, the Joint Maritime Information Center said that traffic through the Strait remains at “reduced levels,” (around 24% of pre-war transit) even though US-assisted vessel transits have been largely uninhibited.

Reuters reports that “some war insurers advise shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after attacks,” adding that “war insurance for ships inside the Gulf has already ticked higher towards 3% of a vessel’s value, up from 2% at the end of last week.” Meanwhile, quotes for coverage as high as 5% are still circulating. So even though the Strait is technically open, there don’t seem to be many takers—nor tankers.

Trump did declare just a few days ago that the ceasefire was “over,” with the US commencing strikes on Iranian sites, including the Iranshahr airbase, and Iran responding by attacking its neighbors in Kuwait and Jordan. Yesterday afternoon, explosions were heard in Bushehr, which is—likely not coincidentally—home to Iran’s only nuclear power plant. Initial reports suggest that the power plant itself was not hit. Brent crude oil prices did not move in reaction to the announcement.

Whether the ceasefire is truly “over,” or whether another MOU will emerge in the coming days (weeks? months?), remains very much an open question. Oil markets, however, remain as optimistic as ever. While Brent crude climbed by roughly $8, briefly trading above $80/bbl for the first time since 22 June, more than half of that move was retraced yesterday, with prices closing at around $76/bbl.

In other news, Anthropic has tapped former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke to join its Oversight Trust, which seeks to “keep the artificial intelligence company accountable to its public mission.” The importance of the Oversight Trust has only intensified following earlier events this year, when Anthropic delayed the release of its Mythos model and triggered an emergency meeting among global leaders to address concerns about its potentially dangerous capabilities.

New York Fed President, John Williams, made several notable comments today on inflation, that seem to be at odds with those of current Fed Chair Warsh. In a speech organized by the New York Fed, Williams highlighted his concerns about the inflationary effects of AI, saying that “if [AI demand] creates a sustained impulse to demand relative to supply in inflation, I do think that’s the kind of situation where you don’t look through.” Some readers may recall Warsh’s manifesto published to the Wall Street Journal in November of last year titled "The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership,” where Warsh calls attention to the disinflationary effects of AI, saying that “AI will be a significant disinflationary force, increasing productivity and bolstering American competitiveness.” While Williams also notes the potential for AI to “play out in a more benign way,” his aforementioned base case shines a light into the varying schools of thought and the potential for “good family fights” when the Fed next convenes.

Task Force Warsh also announced the individuals who will be leading each of his five Fed task forces:

  • Communication: Former BoE governor Mervyn King, UW professor Peter Fisher, and former BCB President Arminio Fraga.
  • Balance sheet: Harvard University professors Karen Dynan and Jeremy Stein, and former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan.
  • Data sources: Harvard University’s Raj Chetty, former Walmart CEO, Doug McMillon, and UChicago’s Kevin Murphy.
  • Productivity and jobs: Marc Andreessen of Andreessen Horowitz, Stanford’s Carles I. Jones, and Asha Sharma from Microsoft.
  • Inflation framework: Harvard University’s Greg Mankiw, NYU’s Thomas Sargent, and the BIS’s former economic advisor, William White.

Canada’s Mark Carney spoke with the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah (the first Canadian PM to make the trip since the year 2000) to discuss the war between the US and Iran, as well as opportunities for economic collaboration. This resulted in the signing of several MOUs, including one to “strengthen cooperation across key defense, economic, trade and investment, cultural, educational, scientific, and consular priorities. Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) is now also scheduled to attend the Canada Investment Forum in September.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 10:45

Guns Fall Silent As Trump Says US-Iran Talks On Again, But Insists 'In No Uncertain Terms, Ceasefire Is OVER'

Zero Hedge -

Guns Fall Silent As Trump Says US-Iran Talks On Again, But Insists 'In No Uncertain Terms, Ceasefire Is OVER'

The guns have actually been silent in the Middle East overnight, after two days of deadly strikes between the United States and Iran, amid a general return to premarket open headlines of 'peace imminent again' as mediators desperately work to get diplomacy back on track. The White House position is that the ceasefire is over but that Washington has agreed to reengage Tehran in mediated talks.

Trump indicates US has agreed to Iran talks, but United States has stated to them, in no uncertain terms, that cease fire is over.

The New York Times writes early Thursday that "Qatar, which helped broker the U.S.-Iran truce last month, has been in talks with Washington and Tehran to de-escalate the crisis, according to two officials with knowledge of the matter, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy. In recent days, several other regional countries — Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, all of which host U.S. military facilities — said they have come under Iranian attack."

via Shutterstock/National Interest

The same report further says, "Even as the fighting appeared to subside on Friday, it remained unclear whether the latest mediation efforts could prevent that cycle from repeating." The situation has devolved into a "dangerous test of wills, with each side trying to show that it can absorb the other’s attacks and respond forcefully, without tipping the conflict back into full-scale war," NYT continues.

And separately Bloomberg also reports, "Talks between the US and Iran on a permanent peace deal are continuing, according to a US official, despite two days of clashes that threatened an already fragile ceasefire. The renewed hostilities risk undermining efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories, the International Energy Agency said."

Bloomberg continues: "Oil prices steadied on Friday after a bumpy week. While gasoline prices have fallen since the fragile ceasefire, they’ve lagged crude’s sharp decline, prompting one asset manager to buy protection against stickier-than-expected US inflation."

There appears real movement on this, given also that Reuters is freshly reporting that Qatar negotiators are currently in Iran to meet Iranian officials, as part of the effort to immediately de-escalate tensions and create conditions for broader negotiations.

Still, the crisis is on edge and full-scale war could return at any moment, also as the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency is once again alerting global vessels security threat in the Strait of Hormuz remains at its highest level.

In Iran, the burial of the slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has finally concluded, and the IRGC's top commander, Brigadier-General Ahmad Vahidi, has pledged vengeance against the US and Israel for the assassination, saying it won’t "be erased from the historical memory."

The Revolutionary Guard chief called for the "full realization of justice and a fitting response to the criminals, especially the child-killing American army." An estimated 41-43 million people attended the six-day funeral for the late Khamenei, according to Iranian media.

In the meantime we commented overnight on who is not seeking permanent Iran peace at this point, on lingering concerns about the Islamic Republic's nuclear program. The Wall Street Journal in a Thursday evening report says that Israel has provided fresh intelligence to the White House indicating just such a Tehran-linked plot.

The timing is quite curious and interesting given it comes just as the warring sides standing on the brink of returning once again either to talks, or to full-scale war:

Israel shared new intelligence with the U.S. that it said indicated a fresh Iranian plan to kill President Trump, people familiar with the matter said, a finding that would mark an escalation in the war between Washington and Iran.

Iran for years has vowed openly to retaliate against Trump for the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, who was a top general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in the president’s first term. 

The Israeli embassy in Washington declined to comment. Iran’s Mission to the United Nations didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The White House referred The Wall Street Journal to comments the president made on Wednesday. 

The Israelis have remained deeply dissatisfied with terms laid out in the previously agreed-to MoU, and so have every incentive to goad Washington further into the conflict. Certainly many within the US administration know this, and so might be taking this new 'intelligence warning' - which was leaked rather quickly to major media - with the appropriate degree of skepticism. 

The US has still - somewhat surprisingly - affirmed it remains engaged in 'technical talks' with Iran, despite the prior days of tit-for-tat bombings. "Technical talks between the US and Iran are continuing, according to a US official, following two days of clashes that threatened to shatter an already fragile ceasefire between the two nations," reports Bloomberg, also late in the day Thursday. "The US is still committed to finding a solution with Iran, the official said Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter."

So it appears there's still hope that things might not spiral further. As for the alleged assassination plot, this isn't the first time Iran has faced such accusations, and each time Tehran officials have vehemently denied them.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 10:40

Trump Refuses To Sign Landmark Housing Bill In Protest Over Stalled Elections Legislation

Zero Hedge -

Trump Refuses To Sign Landmark Housing Bill In Protest Over Stalled Elections Legislation

President Donald Trump declared Friday morning that he won't sign the sweeping bipartisan housing bill awaiting action on his desk in protest of the Senate's failure to pass his signature elections legislation. Unless the president issues an outright veto by midnight, however, the housing package will become law Saturday without his signature.

President Donald Trump attends an event to mark the launch of "Trump Accounts" in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, D.C., July 6, 2026. Photo by Evan Vucci/ Reuters

In a Friday morning Truth Social post, Trump said he was withholding his signature "in PROTEST" over the Senate's inability to pass the SAVE America Act, a comprehensive elections overhaul that would require photo identification to vote and proof of citizenship to register, and would bar most mail-in balloting, with exceptions for military service, disability, illness and travel.

The president asserted that the elections bill is "polling at 97% with the Republican Party" - a figure he offered without citing a source - and called its failure "a serious threat to any politician who votes against it." He renewed his demand that Senate Republicans "TERMINATE THE FILIBUSTER," warning that Democrats would abolish the 60-vote rule "in their very first hour" back in power. Rendering "Democrats" throughout with a derisive misspelling, Trump added that the "title of DUMB" would revert to Republicans if the party allowed the stalemate to stand.

A Deadline, Not A Veto

This is of course performative unless Trump actually vetoes it. Under the Constitution, a bill becomes law automatically if the president neither signs nor vetoes it within 10 days, excluding Sundays, while Congress is in session. That clock on the housing measure - the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act - runs out at the end of Friday.

Because Congress has remained formally in session through the window, the "pocket veto" that would let the bill die quietly is widely viewed as unavailable. That leaves Trump two choices: veto the legislation outright, or let it lapse into law. His post on Friday, notably, promised only not to sign it.

A veto would face long odds. The Senate approved the package 85-5 on June 22, and the House passed it 358-32 - margins far beyond the two-thirds needed in each chamber to override. Congressional observers caution, though, that override votes can scramble such numbers, as some members retreat rather than be seen defying the president. Lawmakers overrode a Trump veto of a defense bill once before, in the final weeks of his first term.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., a close Trump ally, has already conceded the likely endgame. "If he doesn't, it's still law," Johnson said last week of the president's refusal to sign.

The Housing Bill

The bipartisan measure marks the most comprehensive federal housing legislation in decades. It aims to expand supply and lower costs by cutting regulatory barriers to construction, streamlining reviews, encouraging local zoning reform and restricting large institutional investors from buying up single-family homes, alongside pilot programs to expand access to smaller mortgages.

Republicans had planned to campaign on the law this fall. With the average 30-year fixed mortgage hovering near 6.5 percent, affordability consistently ranks as voters' top concern heading into November's midterm elections - and Trump's approval on housing has slipped since he began blocking the bill.

Trump upended the bill's rollout on June 24, canceling a Capitol signing ceremony roughly an hour before it was to begin - with the stage, desk and presidential seal already set in Statuary Hall - and declaring on social media that he would not sign until Congress passed the SAVE America Act, which he labeled "a National Emergency." He has since dismissed the housing package as being "of minor importance" and a "yawn" next to the elections bill.

The tactic is familiar: earlier this year, the president derailed a bipartisan deal on surveillance authorities to press the same demand.

The SAVE America Act has passed the House but failed five times on the Senate floor, where Democrats are unified against it and Republicans' 53 seats fall short of the 60 needed to break a filibuster. Four Republicans - Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky - have twice voted no.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-SD, has flatly refused to gut the filibuster, telling Fox News that Republicans are "bound by arithmetic." Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, the bill's most vocal Senate champion, has countered that the party is only "10 votes shy of cloture" and should force Democrats into a grinding floor fight. Roughly two dozen House conservatives, meanwhile, have vowed to block other legislation until the voting bill moves - a rebellion that stalled the annual defense bill and sent the House home early for its July Fourth recess.

Friday's post also appears to walk back a compromise Trump embraced only days ago. On Tuesday, he endorsed House GOP leaders' plan to pass pieces of the SAVE Act through the filibuster-proof budget reconciliation process - a package Johnson has dubbed "reconciliation 3.0." The president's return to demanding the filibuster's termination suggests that détente may already be fraying.

And Of Course, Outrage Ensues

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, who helped steer the housing bill through the Senate, urged Trump in a video posted to X to "sign the damn bill." Sen. Mark Kelly, D-AZ, accused the president of holding the legislation "hostage."

Republican patience is thinning in public, too. Tillis, who is retiring, reduced his objection to a sentence: "It's quite simple: It's a math problem." Rep. Steve Womack of Arkansas quipped that any colleague not at least a little frustrated by now should question their own sanity. Thune, asked about the canceled signing last month, would say only that the decision was the president's call to make.

Trump has shown no sign of relenting. He promoted the SAVE Act from the National Mall during his July Fourth address, and in a weekend post warned that without it, "I don't want to be the last Republican President!"

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 10:25

Polymarket Seeks Approval To Bring Margin Trading To U.S. Customers

Zero Hedge -

Polymarket Seeks Approval To Bring Margin Trading To U.S. Customers

Authored by Olivier Acuna via CoinDesk,

Prediction market Polymarket applied for a license to offer U.S. users margin trading, enabling them to place bets with less upfront capital, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

Polymarket takes another step in its return to the U.S. (Kanchanara/Unsplash)

Polymarket's U.S. affiliate, Coming Home GBA LLC, filed for a futures commission merchant license with the National Futures Association, Bloomberg said, citing a company representative. Polymarket will also require authorization from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for changes to its rulebook that would allow trading without fully collateralized positions.

Prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer yes-or-no wagers on the outcomes of events, such as weather, sports and elections. Margin trading lets investors open positions with less upfront capital, a practice common in traditional markets. Kalshi received clearance to offer margin trading in March.

Polymarket's application comes as prediction markets continue to grow. Volumes hit $51 billion last year and are on pace to reach about $240 billion in 2026. Wall Street broker Bernstein recently said it expects volume to rise to $1 trillion by 2030 as the sector evolves from niche wagering into wide-based "information markets" spanning sports, crypto, politics and the economy.

Polymarket's application follows a marketing campaign it announced Wednesday to convince policymakers, regulators and potential users that it is trustworthy. Four years ago, the company agreed to stop serving U.S. customers as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC, which alleged it had offered unregistered event-based derivatives.

Polymarket did not respond to a CoinDesk request for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 10:05

Ryanair Passenger Partially Sucked Out Of Plane After Window Shatters

Zero Hedge -

Ryanair Passenger Partially Sucked Out Of Plane After Window Shatters

A 61-year-old Serbian man was almost sucked out of a Ryanair flight after a piece of the plane's engine broke off and struck a window on the Boeing 737-800, causing it to shatter. 

The man's wife and other passengers pinned the man to his seat for five minutes as his "head and shoulders" were hanging outside the plane, which had left Greece's Macedonia airport for Germany at 5:55 a.m. CNN Greece reports. 

"The plane window broke and his wife held him for 5 minutes from the feet so that he would not leave. With the help of many passengers, they managed to pull him into the cabin," said trade union official, Michalis Giannakos, adding "the injured person is in shock and with friction burns." 

The window shattering sounded like "a tire bursting," one passenger told Radio Thessaloniki, adding "We immediately realised there had been a decompression. There were screams … for a moment I thought someone had accidentally opened the emergency door."

"The masks dropped and there was a strong smell. The head and shoulders of one passenger were outside the window. Fortunately, he hadn’t taken off his seat belt."

"A Ryanair flight from Thessaloniki to Memingen on Friday morning (10 July) returned to Thessaloniki shortly after take-off when a passenger window detached on the fly. The aircraft landed normally and passengers returned to the terminal," the airline said in a statement cited by ENIKOS. 

"One passenger requested and received medical assistance on the ground in Thessaloniki," the statement continues. "In order not to be long overdue, an aircraft was mobilized to transport the passengers to Memingen, which departed Thessaloniki at 9:35 local time this morning."

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/10/2026 - 09:45

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