Individual Economists

'The Nord Stream Pipelines Will Be Relaunched,' Says Right-Wing Polish MEP Braun During Meeting With AfD In Germany

Zero Hedge -

'The Nord Stream Pipelines Will Be Relaunched,' Says Right-Wing Polish MEP Braun During Meeting With AfD In Germany

Authored by Remix News Staff via Remix,

Grzegorz Braun, leader of the Confederation of the Polish Crown, spoke in favor of restarting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines during a meeting Wednesday with politicians from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Lubmin. He said Poland should be a shareholder in the German-Russian project.

Grzegorz Braun (first from the left) spoke together with AfD politicians in Lubmin, where the Nord Stream infrastructure is located. (Source: X /Confederation of the Polish Crown)

"Nord Stream 1, and probably Nord Stream 2 as well, will be relaunched. Russian gas will flow to the West," Braun said. He said Europe needs Russian raw materials and that their absence could have serious consequences for the economy.

Braun argued that Poland should not be excluded from future energy projects concerning Russian gas supplies. "Poland should participate, not boycott. Poland should be the initiator," he said. He also proposed that Warsaw become a shareholder in Nord Stream.

He also said that if Russian gas returns to Europe, Poland could lose economically if the supplies bypass its territory. In his view, Warsaw should seek participation in such energy projects rather than remain outside them.

Braun also spoke of the need to "normalize" and "de-escalate" relations and economic cooperation among Poland, Germany and Russia. He advocated a return to wider use of coal and the ability to buy oil and gas from suppliers offering favorable terms.

The speech took place in Lubmin, the site of the German terminal and infrastructure linked to the Nord Stream pipelines.

Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 were damaged in September 2022 by explosions on the Baltic Sea floor. Nord Stream 1 had been the main route for Russian gas to Germany. Nord Stream 2, though completed, was never launched because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly urged the German government to start supplies through the sole Nord Stream 2 line that survived the blasts. He has said that if the line operates, 27.5 billion cubic meters of gas "will immediately reach Europe."

"Why don't they do it? I just can't understand it. They can receive gas through Ukrainian territory, through TurkStream, but they cannot through the pipeline running along the bottom of the Baltic Sea," Putin said.

"In my opinion, it's crazy, just nonsense. Why? But if they don't want to, fine," Putin said in 2024 at the Vladivostok Economic Forum.

According to U.S. media reports, a group of Ukrainian officers conceived the operation to blow up Nord Stream in May 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan before he allegedly unsuccessfully tried to cancel it at the CIA's request. Polish connections also appear in press accounts of the Baltic Sea sabotage.

U.S. President Donald Trump said last May that "many people know" who blew up Nord Stream. He added that he was the first to thwart the project.

Trump imposed sanctions on Nord Stream 2 in his first term, significantly slowing construction. President Joe Biden repealed them in 2021 and reimposed them after Russia invaded Ukraine. Germany withheld permission to start the pipeline because of the war.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 03:30

These Are The World's Biggest Military Drone Exporters

Zero Hedge -

These Are The World's Biggest Military Drone Exporters

The U.S. and Iran supplied 86% of the 16,822 military drones exported worldwide from 2022 to 2025, according to SIPRI's arms-transfer data: 7,593 from the U.S. and 6,800 from Iran, out of 14 exporting countries.

U.S. exports climbed from 1,010 in 2022 to 3,219 in 2024, then fell to 402 in 2025, while Iran kept delivering about 2,000 a year. Türkiye exported only 381 drones but sold to 28 countries, more than any other supplier.

As Visual Capitalist explains further, this graphic ranks the 14 countries that exported military drones over 2022-2025, using data from the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database.

SIPRI counts drone aircraft weighing at least 150 kg, plus one-way attack drones and loitering munitions, which are built to strike once and be destroyed. The figures include drones sent as aid or built in the buyer's country under license, but largely exclude small FPV and commercial drones.

U.S. and Iran Supply 86% of All Exported Military Drones

The U.S. exported 7,593 military drones and Iran 6,800, each more than six times as many as third-ranked Germany (1,000). Nearly all went to a single war: 95% of U.S. drones went to Ukraine, while 99% of Iran's went to Russia.

The table below shows how many military drones each country exported from 2022 to 2025, along with its share of the global total:

Rank Exporter Drones Supplied (2022-2025) Share of Global Total (%) 1 U.S. 7,593 45.1 2 Iran 6,800 40.4 3 Germany 1,000 5.9 4 Poland 690 4.1 5 Türkiye 381 2.3 6 Israel 205 1.2 7 China 64 0.4 8 Czechia 32 0.2 9 Belarus 20 0.1 9 UK 20 0.1 11 Portugal 7 <0.1 12 Austria 5 <0.1 13 Italy 3 <0.1 14 Sweden 2 <0.1   Global Total 16,822 100.0

Almost all of these drones were built for a single use. One-way attack drones and loitering munitions make up 97% of the global total, which helps explain how a few wartime transfers can add up to thousands of units. Every drone the U.S. sent to Ukraine during this period was of this type.

Nearly all of Iran's exports were Shahed-136 drones that Russia also assembled and produced under license, which SIPRI still counts as Iranian exports. Iran built up its drone industry in response to a UN arms embargo that tightened over time before expiring in 2020.

Below the top two, exports drop off quickly. Only Germany (1,000) and Poland (690) delivered more than 500 drones, while the bottom seven exporters, from Czechia to Sweden, delivered 89 combined.

U.S. Military Drone Exports Fell Sharply in 2025

Drone export patterns for the two largest suppliers shifted sharply in 2025. U.S. exports climbed from 1,010 in 2022 to 3,219 in 2024, then fell to 402 in 2025, the same year new U.S. military aid to Ukraine came to a halt.

Iran, meanwhile, continued delivering about 2,000 drones a year from 2023 through 2025, making it the largest exporter in 2025 by a wide margin.

The table below shows how many military drones the U.S. and Iran exported each year from 2022 to 2025:

Country (Military Drones Exported) 2022 2023 2024 2025 U.S. 1,010 2,962 3,219 402 Iran 735 2,031 2,032 2,002

Most U.S. drones shipped in 2025 went to Taiwan, which received 291 loitering munitions and ranks third among all military drone importers from 2022 to 2025. Ukraine received 100 U.S.-made loitering munitions that year, paid for by the UK.

Europe partly filled the gap left by the U.S. in Ukraine. All 1,000 of Germany's drone exports, consisting of loitering munitions sent to Ukraine as aid, were delivered in 2025.

Türkiye Sells Military Drones to More Countries Than Anyone Else

Türkiye ranks fifth by number of drones exported, but no country has more customers. It supplied 28 countries from 2022 to 2025, more than half of the 54 countries that imported military drones and nearly three times as many as the U.S. or China, with 10 each.

Those buyers are spread across the globe. Twelve are in Africa, while the rest range from NATO members such as Poland and Romania to Pakistan, Kuwait, and Ukraine.

Türkiye also sells a different kind of drone. About three-quarters of its exports were larger aircraft such as the Bayraktar TB2, which can fly mission after mission. It supplied 281 of the 486 larger drone aircraft exported worldwide, or 58%.

That difference is why SIPRI also measures arms transfers using a second metric, the trend-indicator value (TIV). Instead of counting units, it assigns each weapon a standardized value based on the production cost of comparable weapons, so one large armed drone counts for far more than a single-use one. TIV reflects the military capability transferred rather than the price paid, and by this measure Türkiye was the largest drone exporter of the period.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 02:45

Why Is A British Charity Telling Migrants Not To Be 'Deceived' By Underage Girls?

Zero Hedge -

Why Is A British Charity Telling Migrants Not To Be 'Deceived' By Underage Girls?

Authored by James Dixon via Spiked,

Three words in a video that did the rounds last month made my skin crawl: 'Don't be deceived.'

They might sound perfectly innocent at first pass, but in context, they are chilling. The footage in question comes from a recorded session apparently run by the Aberdeen-based Mamacita Foundation, a charity that works with asylum seekers. The subject in question is sexual consent - more specifically, the age of consent.

In the footage, the seminar leader, herself an immigrant, asks the men present what age someone must be before they can approach them for 'anything sexual, intimacy'. At one point, she even seems to admit surprise that the age of consent is 16 throughout the UK - she herself had believed up until that very moment, apparently, that it was 18. She establishes the correct answer there and then, while reading from her notes.

Can we not admit that this is already quite a strange spectacle? Adult men are sitting in Britain, being taught the legal age at which they can have sex with British teenagers. But then it gets quite a lot worse.

'Please, this is very, very essential', the seminar leader says (trying to make herself heard over the chatter of the bored participants). 'Because we've had young men fall for these things that could be preventable.' Fall for these things. She then goes on to advise the men to ask young people their age and even request identification, before coming in with the extraordinary warning: 'Don't be deceived, we have young persons growing bigger than their age.' Twelve and 14-year-olds, she explains, can be taller than she is.

It should really go without saying, but a 13-year-old girl who happens to look older than 13 (as many do) is not deceiving anybody. She is simply existing in the body she happens to have, as it has naturally developed. A child (for that is what she is) does not trick a grown man by being tall for her age or developing early. She should also be able to dress and do her makeup how she likes, or how her parents agree for her to, without fear of advances or attack. Nor does a grown man who has sexual contact with a child 'fall for' her supposed wiles.

The language employed here is very revealing. It shows us quite plainly the assumptions underpinning the consent seminar. The men are accorded less moral agency than their potential victims. They are seemingly seen as being at risk of an unfortunate misunderstanding, or worse still, of being sexually manipulated by children. What they are not seen as is adults with clear legal and moral responsibilities.

It's absurd and grotesque. But perhaps most disturbing is the reduction of the whole question to the age of consent.

There is nothing inherently objectionable about teaching newcomers the laws, including the age of the consent, of the country in which they now live (though the fact that it's deemed necessary should be a bit of a red flag). Yet the law represents the minimum standard of conduct enforced by the state. It does not exhaust our moral expectations of one another. Far from it.

If the principal lesson an adult man can take from training courses like this is that 16 is the magic number, something (or plenty) has gone badly wrong. Most Western adults understand that legality is not the only consideration governing relations between adults and teenagers. A middle-aged man propositioning a girl who turned 16 two months ago will not escape moral opprobrium by claiming he was following the rules. There are norms beyond the letter of the law, and norms that cannot be taught so quickly in a simple seminar (especially one in which none of the attendees seems to be listening).

The Mamacita footage is particularly unsettling because its language is so protective of the men in the room. Be careful, check ID, don't be deceived. Where is the corresponding concern for the girls? Imagine being a 14-year-old girl hearing a grown woman telling grown men that girls your age 'sometimes grow bigger than their age', and that men should therefore avoid being 'deceived'. You would think that you and your behavior are the problem.

We have spent decades trying to drive precisely this thinking out of discussions about sexual misconduct. We were so close to doing away with victim-blaming and slut-shaming - with asking whether she led him on or looked older. We recognize these as ways of shifting responsibility from aggressor to victim, from the adult who acts to the girl who is acted on. This principle should not disappear simply because immigration enters the conversation.

I'm not smearing migrants when I say this. I'm talking about who should hold individual responsibility in any given situation, and saying that, generally speaking, it should be the adult. He is the moral actor responsible for obeying the moral norms in the society in which he lives. If someone comes to Britain, he should be treated as a moral adult. That means granting him the dignity of agency - and demanding the responsibility accompanying it. If he commits a sexual offense, responsibility belongs to him, not to licentious Western culture (because nobody is ever asking for it), and certainly not to a teenage girl who has the misfortune to look older than her years in a man's eyes.

Girls do not 'deceive' grown men simply by growing up.

James Dixon is a Glasgow-based novelist, poet and playwright.

Tyler Durden Fri, 10/09/2026 - 02:00

Interpreting Russia's Position Towards The Islamic NATO

Zero Hedge -

Interpreting Russia's Position Towards The Islamic NATO

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

While Russia officially has no problem with the Islamic NATO and even hopes that it'll one day include Iran to fulfill Russia's regional collective security vision, it would be inaccurate to claim that Russia is naïve about the latent threat that this bloc could pose as a result of Turkiye's rivalry with Russia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov opined in early September on his country's position towards the Islamic NATO in response to a question about the role that Russia could play in restoring stability to West Asia. He began by referencing Russia's over-two-decade-old collective security vision for the Gulf, which he also brought up earlier this spring during the Third Gulf War, since it's an enduring part of its regional policy. Lavrov then said that the latest conflict imbued this concept with a fresh sense of urgency.

It was in this context that he mentioned the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and added that "Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye, which formulated that concept of collective security and a defence alliance, have pointed out that it is also open to other countries." He then declared that "At some stage, provided this structure also coordinates conditions on which Iran could be involved in this process, it could become the best concrete step in the direction of the concept we formulated."

Seeing as how Lavrov earlier said that "Russia's role in any part of the world...has always been in supporting what the concerned countries are ready to coordinate", it can be assessed that his country's position towards the Islamic NATO is officially positive. This is especially so as regards the possibility of Iran joining the bloc, though observers should remember that its three founding states are all tied to NATO, with Turkiye being a member while Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are "Major Non-NATO Allies".

For that reason, it was recently argued that "The Islamic NATO Could Indeed Pose A Challenge To Russia" in response to Valdai Club Programme Director Timofey Bordachev article about "Why the Mecca alliance may work in Russia's favor". In particular, Turkiye is poised to lead the expansion of NATO influence into Central Asia through August 2025's "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity", Pakistan already helps terrorists and arms enter Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia might bankroll all of this.

Even if one argues that stability in Afghanistan isn't integral to Russia's security and Saudi Arabia doesn't bankroll anything anti-Russian, it's veritably the case that "Turkiye Geostrategically Challenges Russia Independently Of NATO". Russian expert Farhad Ibragimov, who earlier argued that Turkiye doesn't do the US' bidding against Russia, commendably adjusted his assessment in light of its US-approved large-scale arms deal with Ukraine that surprised Lavrov's spokeswoman. Lavrov is therefore aware of this.

To be sure, he might not share the same threat assessment of the Islamic NATO's members that was described above, but he at minimum knows that Turkiye continues to geostrategically challenge Russia despite also pragmatically cooperating with it on certain issues. It's not only a member of the Islamic NATO, but also the one geographically closest to Russia and already in a position to challenge it even more in Central Asia, which might arguably influence his and his ministry's private views about the bloc.

With that in mind, while Russia officially has no problem with the Islamic NATO and even hopes that it'll one day include Iran to fulfill Russia's regional collective security vision, it would be inaccurate to claim that Russia is naïve about the latent threat that this bloc could pose as a result of Turkiye's rivalry with Russia. Be that as it may, Russian officials are expected to remain diplomatic by not openly talking about this, but Russian experts, media, and their country's foreign supporters might be more critical.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 23:25

Customs & Border Protection Has Scanned More Than 1 Billion Travelers With Facial Biometrics

Zero Hedge -

Customs & Border Protection Has Scanned More Than 1 Billion Travelers With Facial Biometrics

Customs and Border Protection says it has now verified the identity of more than 1 billion travelers with facial biometrics, announcing the milestone in an Oct. 5 statement. The agency says the system runs at entry in every U.S. airport with international arrivals, at exit in 66 airports, at 42 seaports, and in all pedestrian lanes at the northern and southwest border crossings, with some vehicle lanes covered as well.

A passenger walks toward the airbridge as another walks up to use biometric boarding for an international flight United Airlines flight at IAH George Bush Intercontinental Airport in Houston, Texas, on July 21, 2020. Adrees Latif/Reuters

CBP also says it received $673 million under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act to expand the system across all U.S. ports of entry, and it has struck data-sharing deals with cruise lines. By its own count, the program has biometrically identified more than 600,000 overstayers and more than 2,300 impostors since 2018.

CBP says it discards photos of American citizens within 12 hours of identity verification. Citizens who prefer to opt out can simply notify an officer or airline representative and have their passport inspected manually, the agency says.

As the Epoch Times notes further, the need for speeding up the implementation of an automatic biometric entry/exit data system came into focus following the 9/11 attacks, when several pieces of legislation, along with the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, emphasized the need for it.

In 2013, Congress mandated identifying noncitizens who enter and leave the United States.

The CBP developed the Traveler Verification Service as part of the effort - a facial biometrics matching service that automates the process.

Facial biometrics enable CBP to identify criminals, including suspected terrorists; identify people overstaying in the United States; prevent visa fraud; and block individuals already removed from the United States from reentering illegally.

"Although U.S. citizens are not covered by this rule, they may continue to voluntarily participate in the facial biometrics process at entry and exit," CBP said.

"U.S. citizens who prefer to opt out of the facial biometrics process may simply notify a CBP officer or airline representative and undergo manual inspection of their passport, as required for international travel."

Identification Systems

The United States has various identity verification and storage mechanisms, including biometrics.

The Automated Biometric Identification System holds more than 320 million unique identities, processing 400,000 biometric transactions daily.

The system is owned by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which uses biometrics for various purposes, including facilitating legitimate travel, as well as identifying and preventing illegal entry into the country.

CBP, which comes under DHS, operates the Automated Targeting System, which is a tool that compares traveler, conveyance, and cargo information against law enforcement and intelligence data.

U.S. law also requires air carriers operating in the United States to provide DHS and the CBP with certain passenger reservation details.

"This information is transmitted to CBP before departure and used primarily for purposes of preventing, detecting, investigating, and prosecuting terrorist offenses and related crimes and certain other crimes that are transnational in nature," according to CBP.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 23:00

Why Texas Is Making Data Centers Wait

Zero Hedge -

Why Texas Is Making Data Centers Wait

Authored by Ryan McEntush via Andreessen Horowitz (a16z),

At the end of 2024, Texas' grid operator had 63 GW of large new customers in its queue. By this June, that figure reached 474 GW, more than five times record peak demand, about 90% of it data centers.

Then Texas hit pause. What began as directions for data centers to pay for their own grid upgrades has since escalated to a freeze on all new permits. If you care about AI and American reindustrialization, this is important to understand. Why did it do this?

The upcoming election is part of it, but the underlying issues are worth digging into. The first is the interconnection queue. This pause is just as much about how projects apply for approval as it is about the projects themselves. Developers routinely spam projects across several sites, and many are speculative builds with no customer yet. Often these new developers have never even plugged in a GPU, let alone a power plant, so dealing with low-quality submissions puts ERCOT, which runs most of the state's grid, in a tough spot. Planners can't tell which are real, and they don't want ratepayers paying for upgrades built for projects that never show up.

The second issue is community alignment. Noise, water, emissions, and power bills are top of mind for anyone who lives nearby. And regardless of the reality of these issues, people deserve straight answers when a data center comes to town, and they haven't always gotten them (as of June, only 28 of 377 companies had answered a state survey on their resource use). In Hood County, commissioners were asked to support a tax waiver for "Project Patriot" without knowing who it was. To be fair, code names are common while companies shop for sites since a famous buyer can drive up prices, but that logic becomes tougher to defend once officials vote on tax breaks.

The broader political backdrop is important, but I'll be focusing on the energy side: why it's so hard to power a data center, all the ways developers are trying to do it anyway, and where things are likely headed.

What connecting to the grid actually means

How Amazon purchases power helps illustrate what's changed. For the last decade, they'd find a utility with network capacity, sign up as a large load, then enter long-term contracts to match their use on paper. These were often purely financial, meaning you didn't always have to prove the power could reach you, and the grid connection was easy because utilities had spare network capacity.

That's no longer true. The grid is stretched thin, and almost any new large load or generator now requires an upgrade. Power flows across every connected path, so buying from one plant doesn't reserve a route to your building (there are even markets for transmission congestion rights).

So buyers went after firm power (available around the clock) they could claim more directly, typically by restarting retired plants or by building next to existing ones. Neither was a true escape, and some of the loudest fights are over "colocation," which ERCOT describes as drawing power from a neighboring plant before it reaches the grid:

Interconnection studies are how grid planners identify the wires and substations that need upgrades for any addition to the network. ERCOT used to review studies individually under rules built for 40 to 50 large loads at a time, but 2025 brought 225 new requests by mid-November. So this June, the PUCT approved a new batch approach. Under "Batch Zero," ERCOT studies large loads of 75 MW or more together and allocates grid capacity among them.

Primarily, the studies ask what happens when something breaks. NERC's standard, the baseline for reliability across North America, covers a broad set of outage scenarios, with ERCOT adding its own requirements. Planners might simulate a transformer outage, then knock out a line or generator on top of that. Maintaining that reliability standard without shedding more load often means building additional infrastructure.

A newer risk is load dropping off the grid all at once. Many data centers switch to backup power at the first voltage dip to protect their hardware, so one bad fault can pull an enormous load off the grid in seconds. This happened earlier this year in Virginia, but was fortunately handled well.

Texas has even less room for error since ERCOT's grid is largely isolated. Under some conditions, ERCOT can lose only about 3.2 GW of load at once before causing issues. A new voltage ride-through rule now requires new data centers to stay connected through routine faults, and I've even heard of labs running dummy jobs after a training run fails just to keep load from dropping abruptly.

All of this can sound overly conservative, but the system was designed to put reliability ahead of cost. Put simply, the grid is built for the hot summer days and frigid winters when failure can mean life or death. That duty is what makes sizing the grid so hard; you build for a few peak hours but pay for it all year.

So who does pay for all this resilience? Texas typically splits transmission costs by each large customer's demand during the grid's summer peaks, so a big load that ramps down on the hottest afternoons can skip much of its share of the transmission bill. In July, regulators proposed counting all 12 monthly peaks instead and charging large loads as if they ran at full size. In other words, large buyers would pay in proportion to how big their electricity pipes need to be, not how much is flowing through them.

Sounds simple enough, but splitting up costs is often the slowest part of interconnection. An upgrade built for one campus may also improve reliability for existing customers or make room for future growth that's hard to value up front. And if any new development runs over budget or its load never shows up, everyone else is forced to cover whatever the developer's commitments didn't.

And those commitments are surprisingly cheap to make. The PUCT's new large-load rules, effective October 8, charge a flat $100,000 study fee plus a $50,000-per-MW deposit. The deposit weeds out some speculative projects, but it's a thin filter. ERCOT can reassign a project's capacity if it falls two years behind, but even a project that loses its capacity forfeits just 20% of the deposit (at least $10 million on a 1 GW campus), plus whatever the utility has already spent. Most importantly, the deposit typically only backs the upgrades built for that project, not the more expensive regional lines whose cost everyone on the grid shares.

Fully connecting a large data center can take 5 to 10 years. To accelerate deployment, a phased connection approach is becoming more common, which gives the utility more gradual targets to plan around, as well as a way for the developer to prove they can handle everything they've asked for. All of this also assumes Batch Zero is moving, which it isn't right now. ERCOT has even paused approvals for data centers of 75 MW or more to switch on, including 17 that had finished every other ERCOT step. Until the audit's December report settles which projects are eligible, ERCOT can't study them together, so the timeline is "TBD" and the load forecast is on hold.

What bringing your own power solves

For a developer facing the interconnection queue, skipping the grid entirely looks appealing. Idle GPUs cost far more than the electricity to run them, so speed matters most - what folks call "time to power." That's why developers are planning to bring their own power on site ("behind the meter"), but almost always alongside a connection to the grid, or as a bridge to one:

SemiAnalysis is already tracking 75 GW of equipment orders for behind-the-meter assets, but every site I'm aware of intends to connect to the grid as soon as it can, chiefly because on-site power almost always costs more. So, once the grid is available, say in year five, you switch.

In the meantime, pairing on-site assets with even a partial connection is smart for the same reasons we built a grid in the first place. When one plant trips, the rest of ERCOT's 1,460-plus generating units cover for it, but an islanded load (cut off from the grid) doesn't have that luxury. The grid also provides things we take for granted, like inertia, fault current, steady voltage, and black start. An island has to supply all of that itself - power systems folks know how hard this can be.

AI workloads make the job even harder. At xAI's first Memphis site, swings of 10 to 20 MW several times a second were wearing out turbine shafts until xAI added 150 MW of Tesla Megapacks. A grid ERCOT's size dilutes swings like that, but on a private plant the turbines really feel it. Expect more batteries and other energy storage as rack-level power density grows and swings become more dramatic.

Then there's fueling a site. Winter Storm Uri's lesson is that gas plants can fail together. And since they tend to keep little fuel on site (NERC calls gas a "just-in-time" fuel), spare turbines don't always help. Sometimes the pipeline doesn't even exist yet. Solar trades that fuel risk for the sun and weather, and at gigawatt scale, you need a lot of batteries. Keeping a 1 GW campus running through one 14-hour winter night takes 14 GWh from batteries, about half of all the battery storage on ERCOT's grid as of June. For an island seeking 100% uptime, covering rare events like a cloudy week or another Uri gets expensive.

Whatever the fuel, you want an island that fails gracefully and predictably, with no single point of failure. Even nuclear, about as reliable as power plants get, runs only about 92% of the time, mostly because each reactor goes offline for weeks to refuel. Redundancy in this case means effectively an entire second power plant. Thus, behind-the-meter setups favor modularity, like the more than 500 gas engines of about 4 MW each planned for Shackelford, though hundreds of engines can be a pain to maintain.

Full reliability for an island is very, very hard, but some labs and hyperscalers have shown that, forced to choose between reliability and speed, they'll pick speed. Meta has turned to tents with no backup generators, and SemiAnalysis finds buyers growing more willing to accept outages, with some island designs aiming for as little as 99% uptime, or about 88 hours of downtime a year. With GPU time this expensive, that still beats years of waiting, so for many buyers a temporary island makes sense even if it's messy.

A "private grid" that ties several plants and campuses together can take back many of the benefits a lone island gives up, at least in theory. But today Texas, like most states, only allows building your own power within tight limits:

  • Supplying yourself: You aren't a utility if you supply only yourself, your employees, or your tenants, and nobody resells the power.
  • Running a private use network: You can also run on co-located generation, sell the surplus into the grid, and draw from it when you fall short. This is the model for the Armstrong County campus, and for the West Texas one once it connects.
  • Selling to a neighbor: If you sell to the factory across the road, you need a retail electric provider certificate.
  • Stringing a wire: Build your own line, and you're probably running into the local utility's service territory.

The Cato Institute's consumer-regulated electricity proposal would loosen those limits by allowing private utilities to serve multiple customers across their own network. This isn't an entirely new idea; Utah's SB 132 lets loads of 100 MW or more contract for a fully off-grid system. Texas currently doesn't let a network like this serve multiple customers, but if the demand for power remains insatiable, I'd expect the more permissive states to win larger chunks of the buildout with this "Wild West" utility structure. (However, you may also risk a utility "death spiral," with the grid's fixed costs falling on fewer and fewer customers.)

The flip side is a utility building the island itself. Outside ERCOT, El Paso Electric plans to put 813 small gas generators from ERock (366 MW in all) beside Meta's new campus and run them as an island, on Meta's dime, for up to five years. This is an option because, unlike the transmission and distribution utilities inside ERCOT, it still owns power plants. After the island period, it would connect the plant to its grid and could seek to spread the cost across all its customers, though in September administrative judges recommended approval only if those customers are protected.

Anything that runs on fuel also needs an air permit that matches how it operates, so a diesel generator permitted only for emergencies can't run all the time. Optimistically, permits can come fast when things work. Sometimes they don't, though. In Texas, the freeze now blocks them for data centers until the audit is done.

We should also ask what instances of "bridge" gas are actually bridging to. xAI's first two Memphis data centers answer that in different ways. The first ran temporary turbines off an existing gas main until the grid arrived, then began removing them. Along the way, it ran dozens without air permits. For the second, xAI built its plant across the state line in Southaven, Mississippi, but a July order requires all 69 turbines to retire by mid-2027 as a permanent 1.2 GW plant goes up in their place. One bridge led to the grid, and the other to a power plant of xAI's own.

In August, though, the federal Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) agreed to serve that data center directly, too. Turns out it's hard to stay away from the grid!

What flexibility can buy

A campus that can keep itself running can also be easier for the grid to accommodate, even welcome. It's a large paying customer whose demand can "flex" when power is tight, whether by cutting its draw or exporting surplus power. This is how xAI got approved for grid power at its second Memphis site. What made its promise to flex credible was its ability to carry its entire load for four hours on its own power, and what the CEO of Memphis Light, Gas and Water called "the world's largest grid-connected battery system."

Batteries are only one way to flex. A campus can also shift computing to other hours or data centers, or switch to its own generators. So how much room could flexibility open up? Tyler Norris and colleagues at Duke estimated that, setting transmission limits aside, ERCOT could add about 10 GW of new load without new generation if that load gave up 0.5% of its yearly grid electricity. Since the average cutback lasts about two hours, it's also conveniently battery-shaped. Building on this, a study of PJM (the largest US power market) by Camus, encoord, and Princeton found that for each GW of new data center load, making 20% of that load flexible would save other customers $78 million a year, while bringing its own capacity for the other 80% would keep another $326 million off their bills.

For flexibility to be valuable, it's important that it's always available when operators need it. In Texas, generators already work this way under connect-and-manage. Put simply, they can hook up early as long as ERCOT can cut them down when lines are congested. Generators can live with that because at worst they sell less for a while, but a data center that has promised its customers uptime is more challenging. Some loads, like Bitcoin miners, have made the trade anyway. Batch Zero gives large loads two optional paths here:

  • Bring your own power: A campus can count its own power plant toward its size as long as it can cut back within one minute if the plant fails. So far, 11 Batch Zero projects have picked this path.
  • Agree to cuts: A campus can draw up to the full amount it asked for, but ERCOT can automatically cut anything above its guaranteed share whenever lines are full.

A campus could also pay its neighbors to cut their load instead. In PJM, Google is funding Voltus to pool up to 100 MW of batteries, thermostats, and other flexible devices across a territory. But PJM only counts what it trusts the pool to deliver, and it's a capacity deal that helps the whole grid at its peak, not a fix for any one congested line. That's a harder sell in Texas, an energy-only market where transmission is the main bottleneck. Texas has also barred colocated campuses from getting paid for similar services, since under SB 6 they already have to shut off when ERCOT tells them.

Even so, Texas has been a leader in distributed resources. One Base Power fleet, run with the co-op GVEC, passed ERCOT's pilot tests to sell directly into the wholesale market on its first attempt, and is now expanding to 50 MW. These pilots are important; planners need that kind of proof before they'll design around these fleets. But once trusted, distributed resources can rapidly add capacity without waiting for an expensive new "peaker" power plant, lines, substations, or a lengthy interconnection process.

Other hardware can help, too. Unlike legacy steel units, a solid-state transformer uses semiconductor switches, so software can measure and steer the power flowing through it. Alongside network upgrades like reconductoring (restringing lines with higher-capacity wire) and dynamic line ratings (rating lines for actual weather instead of worst-case conditions), that greater visibility and control can squeeze more out of wires ratepayers already funded. It's a big reason we backed Heron Power, which is set to install its solid-state transformers at a West Texas battery site with RWE.

The problem is that most of these tools help operators keep things running day to day, but planners don't always count them when they size upgrades. Nothing in physics forces that, though. A September study by Piq Energy, using Base Power's data on potential fleets, found that about 80 MW of home batteries, strategically sited to relieve transmission constraints, could resolve all overloads triggered by a hypothetical new 100 MW data center near Fort Worth.

Batch Zero doesn't consider things like this yet. It still plans upgrades for a flexible campus's full planned load, since that path is a bridge to firm service, and there's no option to stay flexible for good in exchange for smaller upgrades. Flexibility gets a campus connected sooner, but it doesn't shrink the upgrades. Planners could instead size them smaller by crediting flexibility and other resources that relieve the same bottleneck, assuming they're measured in real time and perform reliably.

All of this saves time and money by getting more out of what's already in the ground, but no amount of flexibility gets the grid out of building more generation and wires for all the demand coming down the pipe.

Getting to hundreds of gigawatts

On-site power and flexibility will decide how the next few campuses energize, but the labs and hyperscalers I talk to worry most about scale. Their power teams tend to split in two: one picks sites and equipment for the next couple of years, and the other asks how to connect hundreds more gigawatts after 2030.

This is a lot! Run, say, 100 GW all year and it's 876 TWh, about a fifth of what the country used in 2025. Here's what power developers told the Energy Information Administration (EIA) they planned to add in 2026 across the entire grid.

Every source helps, and much of it is headed to Texas anyway. But at last year's average capacity factors (how much plants actually produce versus their maximum), the planned solar, wind, and gas plants would make around 150 TWh a year, or about a sixth of that 876 TWh.

To be fair, that gas bar likely understates what's being built, since EIA's survey only counts plants tied to the grid. In this way, much of the 75 GW of on-site power equipment already on order could be ghost capacity that charts like this one will miss. Still, gas remains popular because it generally runs whenever you need it. And because of that, the constraint is mostly getting the equipment in the first place, so buyers are turning to alternatives that can be easier to find, like reciprocating engines and fuel cells.

That said, gas feels like an incomplete answer to me. I'm no Greenpeace warrior, but running 100 GW around the clock at gas plants' average rate would release nearly 8% of the country's energy-related emissions. Often the easiest equipment to get is even less efficient, too.

Solar is compelling because it already has the production scale the labs are aiming for. The problem is that it's mostly in China. The world added more than 600 GW in 2025, but China alone makes more than 80% of the world's solar components and battery cells. From what I can tell, Chinese suppliers don't mind selling to us that much, at least partly because they see our scale-up as "cute." However, China reportedly weighed curbing exports of specific solar manufacturing equipment. Washington has also put on pressure, with forced-labor shipment holds, new tariffs, and phasing out wind and solar credits. Despite this, Elon is aiming for 200 GW a year of US solar manufacturing on his own, obviously solar-pilled.

Scaling firm power that isn't gas is much more complicated. Uprates and restarts can squeeze a little more from the existing nuclear fleet, but the real upside is new reactors, as we've argued before. Meta and Amazon have signed big deals, but much of it is still options and targets. So far, the military has been a stronger buyer to build microreactors on its bases, which is how factory-built reactors can learn to get faster and cheaper (blame EPC as much as the NRC). Geothermal could also leverage drilling (something Texas knows well) for repeatable power - Google and Meta appear quite interested.

Regardless of the power source, it all still ends up waiting on other equipment like transformers and switchgear, and all the crews to install them. Large power transformers now take more than two years to arrive, and the FCC has limited new foreign-made inverters alongside an August emergency order that could further bar Chinese-made equipment from the grid.

Someone also has to build the wires. In 2008, Texas regulators ordered the CREZ lines to carry West Texas wind, then spread their $7 billion cost across every ratepayer. Now they're approving even bigger 765 kV lines, but it's going slower than many would like. Some of that is just (unfortunately) typical construction, which is slow and expensive anywhere, but there's also a myriad of additional regulatory hurdles on top. The federal permitting deal taking shape in Washington could help move things along if Congress can pass it.

Admittedly, I'm more confident that we'll need a lot of power than I am about the exact shape it takes. My bet is that a handful of setups, depending on geography and flexibility, get built over and over. Maybe on-site gas and batteries carry a campus until its grid connection shows up, then stick around as backup to flex when the grid is tight. Solar gets layered on now where it fits, and geothermal and reactors come in once they prove out.

Past 2030, it's even harder to say who ends up building and owning all that power. One answer is that the same company builds both the plant and the campus (vertical integration), which Google's purchase of Intersect may signal. Another is that oil and gas companies, like Chevron or Williams, become broader grid builders, and it isn't hard to picture them, or "neo-utilities" like NRG and NextEra, building private grids that serve several campuses, assuming the law enables it.

I don't know which way it goes yet, but they'll all be buying from the same equipment makers. That market is huge and surprisingly ill-equipped to meet inflecting demand. Given that, I see two major ways for startups to break in:

  • Integration: Some take familiar hardware and win on integration or business model, the way Base Power runs home batteries as a trusted aggregated resource.
  • Technology: Others bring new technology so much better that early adopters will take a chance on it, which is what Heron Power is aiming to do with solid-state transformers.

A third pitch, crudely put as "worse but faster," sells well in a shortage, but I'd ask what those profits are being reinvested in, because it might get hard to compete if broader supply catches up.

Indeed, shortages like these are an opening for startups, but it helps to understand why incumbents aren't quick to fill them. The last bet on a turbine boom ended in a $22 billion GE Power write-down and helped cost GE's CEO his job. A startup has to survive the busts incumbents are planning around, as well as compete globally with Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power, and all sorts of suppliers in places like India and China. Customers may pay for speed today, but keeping them will take reliable, competitively priced equipment and a service team that knows what it's doing.

Every step of site development is hard. Vendors like GE Vernova now take nonrefundable deposits just to reserve a manufacturing slot, leaving developers with a chicken-and-egg problem. Lenders want a long-term contract with a solid customer, who wants a credible timeline, and that timeline takes deposits the developer usually needs lenders to fund. Bring in an unproven vendor and the loop gets even harder to close (and markets notice fast when it breaks). Once it closes, everything else still has to go right.

For a new vendor, even getting into a campus's first phase is difficult. Hardly anyone has placed a large, firm order for data center power equipment without thousands of hours of operation. For example, FTAI's big order rests on the CFM56, a jet engine that has logged more than a billion flight hours, while Crusoe stepped back from Boom as Boom's first engine core was still gearing up for tests. So even credible teams building awesome technology face a cold-start problem. Thus, getting your product designed into a real project matters far more than early deposits or revenue.

After the pause

I think it's fair to check that projects in Batch Zero are what their developers swore they are, and credible projects should move ahead soon. The permit freeze is harder to defend, though I see the state's logic if the goal is to approve nothing until the audit is done. That said, I don't like that it makes a developer that has funded its first phase, even one bringing its own power, wait like a speculator. Texas should narrow it now by exempting generators permitted only for emergencies and projects that have funded their first phase. The October 19 update to the governor from the state's environmental regulator is the obvious place to start this conversation.

Once the review is done, the ongoing tests can be more straightforward. A developer that pays its security deposit, pays for the capacity it reserves, and hits phased milestones should get a connection date it can plan for. It should also connect sooner if it agrees to cut back when the grid is tight (Batch Zero already does some of this). Going further, the utility building upgrades should probably answer for delays much like a developer does. Perhaps Texas could open lines to competitive bids with cost caps and penalties.

Whatever Texas decides, power will likely stay tight for years while the bottleneck keeps moving. Importantly, data centers are not that unique in the equipment they need; they just hit these limits first. In this sense, they're the perfect rehearsal, because much of what we want to (re)build in this country will run on the same stuff.

That also makes it an opportunity I'd hate to waste. AI companies will pay nearly any price for power and can build almost anywhere, so they can help fund upgrades the grid needs anyway. Analyst Hans Royal estimates inference could pay an absurd $5,600 per MWh for power and still earn a decent return, nearly 60 times what the average US industrial customer pays. That can strain local prices for gas, power, labor, and materials, but the infrastructure it funds can be worth far more. Admittedly, that argument can be a hard sell right now. In an August poll, 56% of Texas voters said more data centers would hurt local energy bills.

The worry is fair since the honest answer is that it depends on who pays. In a perfect world, developers cover their upgrades and pay for the capacity they reserve, spreading the grid's fixed costs across more sales so everyone else pays a smaller share. Berkeley Lab found that from 2019 to 2025, the states with the most load growth generally saw average prices fall after inflation. Imagine all the money racing into AI helping the next factory connect and the next household electrify without an unaffordable bill (or a grid too tight for an EV, or a home robot). That household may never open a chatbot and still come away far better off. We're already seeing early versions of this:

I would not be surprised to see hyperscalers covering a whole town's power bills as part of hosting a local campus. Most states, Texas included, don't let a utility single out one town, but at a small utility where data centers use most of the power, like Oregon's Umatilla Electric, covering a typical household's bill for each of its roughly 17,000 meters would only cost about $30 million a year. Such an agreement could pencil because that's less than 0.5% of what a 1 GW campus costs to own and run.

It's also important to read the fine print when deals are made. In Arkansas, Google agreed to pay $443 million up front toward an Entergy solar plant for its data center. The catch is that Entergy counted it as prepayment for power, so it can still seek the plant's full cost plus a return from all its customers. And Entergy sued two newspapers to stop them from reporting on the contract, then dropped the suit after a judge refused. Even if the deal is legal, this isn't how you build trust with the community.

A campus that levels with its neighbors and actually follows through keeps people on its side, and the next one gets easier to welcome. Get that wrong and everyone else can end up paying for it. In PJM, the market monitor says data centers account for 38% of the latest capacity bill, some $6.3 billion. Let me be clear: none of that justifies a blanket pause. But it does mean getting the rules and incentives right as we scale up development. AI companies have pledged to pay their way, and most would rather connect to the grid than avoid it. It seems ideal for everyone that we let them do so instead of driving that spending into private islands, or pushing infrastructure upgrades that we'll need anyway onto everyone else's bills.

Texas created the energy fast lane first; now it has the opportunity to show us a better one, and I expect it will. Power is where America finds out whether it can still build.

We publish a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here is to be construed as representing the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 22:35

A Leaner Federal Workforce Is A Win For Taxpayers

Zero Hedge -

A Leaner Federal Workforce Is A Win For Taxpayers

Authored by David Harsanyi via The Epoch Times,

One of the most unheralded policy successes of President Donald Trump's second term has been the purging of many unnecessary federal jobs.

The U.S Capitol building in Washington on May 5, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The federal government has reduced its workforce by 300,000 jobs since Jan. 20, 2025, bringing it down to a still-bulky 2.7 million employees. Not since President Lyndon Johnson's Great Society vastly expanded the scope of the national government has the federal workforce been at this level.

It's not merely that the feds have shed superfluous jobs - there are still over 4 million contract workers, after all. It's that the White House has been targeting all the right institutions.

The bloated War Department, with over 61,000 departures, and the equally bloated State Department, with 37 percent of its staff gone, experienced the biggest reductions.

But most of the buyouts were aimed at agencies and departments that should have been shuttered a long time ago. Take the U.S. Agency for International Development, which, for years, was used to funnel billions to hard-left ideological projects around the world. Virtually its entire staff is gone.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the unaccountable bureaucratic brainchild of progressive Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), has lost roughly 88 percent of its workers, though it's still far too big.

The Agriculture Department, which, despite its name, is principally a welfare agency that has little to do with farming, experienced tens of thousands of departures. So has another welfare-state institution, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, whose most notable achievement has been helping inflate housing prices.

Not every agency is being clipped fast enough, though. Early in his term, Trump signed an executive order directing the dismantling of the Education Department. Yet this intrusive agency, which spends its time propping up unions and undermining local initiatives, has lost only 40 percent of its staff.

Every time Republicans threaten to cut federal jobs, though they rarely follow through, Democrats predict that society will be plunged into chaos and high unemployment.

The unemployment rate in September 2024 was 4.1 percent. In September 2025, it was 4.4 percent. It's at 4.1 percent today. Barely anyone, one suspects, has noticed that the federal workforce has shrunk by around 11 percent. They probably wouldn't notice if it shrank by another 11 percent.

What Democrats really fear is losing power. Federal agencies, government employees and public-sector unions are all bases of political influence for the Left.

"This is an attempt at intimidation," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) complained when the Office of Management and Budget released a memo instructing agencies to plan for large-scale layoffs. "Donald Trump has been firing federal workers since day one - not to govern, but to scare."

Why would Democrats be "scared" of a leaner federal workforce?

We don't know how government employees vote, but we can make an educated guess. Around 84 percent of campaign donations from federal workers went to Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in 2024. Federal civilian jobs rose by over 130,000 under the Biden administration. Around 11 percent of the approximately 16 million jobs added during Biden's term were federal, state and local government jobs. Roughly 15 percent of the total workforce, around 24 million people, still work for the government at all levels.

There is more that can be done, not only in trimming the federal workforce but also in decentralizing and dispersing it. The Trump administration promised to relocate more federal jobs out of the Washington area. The political class entrenched around the capital in Virginia and Maryland keeps voting to empower itself. It should be dispersed as much as possible.

In 2001, anti-tax activist Grover Norquist famously proclaimed that his goal was to shrink the federal government until it was small enough to "drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub." We've learned over the years that it doesn't work that way. Neither party has any plan to curb spending, and voters don't seem to be clamoring for one.

Shrinking the federal bureaucracy and workforce isn't going to restrain massive deficit spending and our economy-threatening, turbocharged debt. Still, paring down the size, scope and intrusiveness of a swollen federal government, even if it's just temporary until Democrats come back into power, is a win for taxpayers.

David Harsanyi is a senior writer at the Washington Examiner and author of six books, including "First Freedom: A Ride Through America's Enduring History With the Gun" and "Eurotrash: Why America Must Reject the Failed Ideas of a Dying Continent."

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 19:15

When Did Obesity Become A Drug Deficiency?

Zero Hedge -

When Did Obesity Become A Drug Deficiency?

Authored by Joseph Varon via The Brownstone Institute,

Look at almost any photograph of an American crowd taken 60 years ago. It can be a baseball game, a high school graduation, a beach, an airport terminal, a factory floor, or simply people walking down a city street. Something is immediately noticeable to modern eyes, although almost nobody in the photograph would have considered it remarkable: most people are relatively thin.

They did not have continuous glucose monitors, smartphone applications that counted calories and macronutrients, wearable devices reminding them to stand, boutique fitness studios, bariatric surgery centers, or medications capable of producing 15 or 20 percent reductions in body weight. They were not necessarily more virtuous than we are, and they certainly did not possess superior genes. They lived in a different metabolic environment.

The data backs up what we see in those old photos. In the early 1960s, about 13 percent of American adults were obese. By August 2023, that number had jumped to 40.3 percent, with another 31.7 percent considered overweight and nearly one in ten classified as severely obese.[1] This trend isn't just in the United States. A huge study of over 220 million people from 200 countries found a dramatic global rise in obesity between 1990 and 2022.[2] Our genes haven't changed much in that time. Something else has.

We're now at a turning point in medicine. Faced with one of the biggest and fastest changes in human health, we're treating the results as a condition that needs lifelong medication. The newest drugs are very effective, and that's important to recognize. Semaglutide and tirzepatide have led to weight loss that older nonsurgical treatments rarely matched.[3,4] Semaglutide has also reduced the risk of major heart problems in people with overweight or obesity and heart disease who didn't have diabetes.[5] Tirzepatide has greatly improved sleep apnea in people with obesity.[6] These results are significant, and these drugs are much more than cosmetic weight-loss aids.

That's why we need to look closely at what's happening now. The problem isn't that these drugs don't work; they clearly do. The real concern is that they might work so well that we stop asking why so many people need them in the first place. We could be seeing a major medical breakthrough, but at the same time, we might be accepting that the effects of an unhealthy environment should just be managed with medication. The real question isn't whether these "GLP-1" drugs are effective. It's whether their success is making us stop looking for the root causes of the obesity epidemic.

The Epidemic That Became a Diagnosis

For decades, obesity was framed largely as an individual failure. The explanation was simple: people ate too much, exercised too little, and lacked the discipline necessary to change. That view was scientifically inadequate and often cruel. Body weight is influenced by genetics, neuroendocrine signaling, appetite regulation, insulin sensitivity, adipocyte biology, medications, sleep, psychological factors, socioeconomic conditions, physical activity, and environmental exposures. Contemporary medicine appropriately recognizes obesity as far more complicated than failure of willpower.

Recent international efforts have gone even further, distinguishing excess adiposity from clinical obesity and emphasizing the actual effects of adiposity on organ and tissue function rather than relying exclusively on body mass index.[7]

It was important to stop blaming people for obesity. But now, medicine might be swapping one simple explanation for another. Just because obesity is a real biological condition doesn't mean it starts inside each person. A disease can be both real and caused by the environment. For example, asthma from air pollution is still asthma, and lead poisoning is still a real illness even if the cause is environmental. If a whole community gets sick after a change in the water supply, doctors treat the patients, but no one thinks the community suddenly developed a genetic problem.

We should be just as curious about obesity. When a condition becomes much more common in just a few generations, our first question should be: what has changed in our environment, habits, or society to cause this? Instead, the focus is quickly shifting to which drug can best fight it. We changed the world around us, saw people's bodies change in response, and now we're treating those changes as the main problem.

There is another change that occurred alongside the biological one: our culture gradually changed its definition of what was normal. I have written about this before, using the transformation of Victoria's Secret as one highly visible example. The famously thin "Angels" who once defined the brand were eventually replaced by models representing a much broader range of body sizes, part of a larger and understandable effort to move away from unrealistic beauty standards and the humiliation of people because of their weight.[8] There was much about that change that was humane and necessary. No person should be shamed, ridiculed, or assigned less dignity because of body size.

But compassion and normalization are not the same thing. As obesity became progressively more common, society did more than become more accepting of people with obesity; it also became increasingly reluctant to acknowledge obesity itself as abnormal. The distinction matters because one can respect every human body while still recognizing that excess adiposity carries important medical consequences.

In a remarkably short period, we changed the food environment, changed the physical environment, watched the population become heavier, and then changed the cultural image of what a normal body looked like. Now we are entering the next stage of that progression: pharmacologically treating the metabolic consequences.

What Changed Was Almost Everything

Today, people live in a very different world than past generations. Food is everywhere, all the time. Much of it is designed to be convenient, tasty, long-lasting, quick to eat, and easy to buy again. Foods that once took time to prepare can now be eaten in seconds. Drinks can add a lot of calories without making us feel full. Portion sizes have grown, people move less, jobs are more sedentary, transportation often means less walking, and entertainment usually means sitting. No single food or habit explains obesity, but the environment that shapes our eating and activity has changed a lot.

A key experiment by Hall and his team at the National Institutes of Health showed this clearly. In a controlled study, people ate either ultra-processed or unprocessed diets, matched for calories, nutrients, sugar, salt, and fiber. They could eat as much or as little as they wanted. On an ultra-processed diet, people ate about 500 more calories a day and gained weight. On the unprocessed diet, they lost weight.[9] No one told them to eat more or took away their willpower. Just changing the food environment changed how much they ate.

Physical activity has also dropped a lot. A large study of over 5 million people found that not getting enough exercise became more common worldwide from 2000 to 2022, and by 2022, almost a third of adults weren't active enough.[10] Sleep is important too, even though it's often overlooked. Research shows that not getting enough sleep raises the risk of obesity.[11] All these factors, along with stress, income, medications, food access, work hours, city design, and more, combine in ways that can't be fixed by simply telling people to eat less and move more.

Scientists are also looking at environmental chemicals that might affect metabolism and hormones. The idea of "obesogens" is still new and shouldn't be seen as the only reason for the obesity epidemic. Still, studies suggest that some environmental exposures could affect how our bodies store fat, use energy, or regulate appetite in ways that make weight gain more likely.[12] The right approach is to keep studying these possibilities, especially since the rise in obesity is so widespread.

The most defensible conclusion is therefore also the least sensational: obesity probably does not have one cause. Food changed. Physical activity changed. Sleep changed. Work changed. Transportation changed. Stress changed. Medications changed. Chemical exposures changed. Marketing changed. Portion sizes changed. The economics of food changed. The built environment changed. Human beings then responded biologically to those changes.

The mystery is not that metabolism responded to a dramatically altered environment. The mystery is why medicine became so comfortable treating that response without demonstrating comparable urgency about the environment that produced it.

Then Came the Drugs That Actually Worked

Obesity medicine has a long and sometimes uncomfortable pharmacological history. Earlier drugs frequently produced modest weight loss, troublesome adverse effects, or both. Several were eventually withdrawn because their risks became unacceptable. Against that background, modern incretin-based therapies represented a genuine therapeutic breakthrough. In the STEP 1 trial, adults with overweight or obesity who received once-weekly semaglutide 2.4 mg lost an average of 14.9 percent of their baseline body weight over 68 weeks, compared with 2.4 percent among those receiving placebo, with both groups receiving lifestyle intervention.[3] For nonsurgical obesity treatment, this was an extraordinary result.

Tirzepatide moved the numbers even further. In SURMOUNT-1, 2,539 adults with obesity or overweight and at least one weight-related complication, but without diabetes, were randomized to tirzepatide or placebo. At 72 weeks, average weight reductions were 15.0 percent, 19.5 percent, and 20.9 percent with the 5 mg, 10 mg, and 15 mg doses, respectively, compared with 3.1 percent with placebo.[4] Weight reductions exceeding 20 percent begin to approach territory historically associated with bariatric procedures rather than medication. For patients who have struggled unsuccessfully with obesity for years, it is easy to understand why these drugs can feel revolutionary.

More importantly, the story extends beyond the scale. In SELECT, more than 17,000 adults with preexisting cardiovascular disease and overweight or obesity, but without diabetes, were randomized to semaglutide or placebo. Major cardiovascular events occurred in 6.5 percent of patients receiving semaglutide and 8.0 percent receiving placebo, corresponding to a hazard ratio of 0.80.[5] Subsequent analysis also demonstrated a lower incidence of a prespecified composite kidney endpoint among patients receiving semaglutide.[13] Tirzepatide has produced substantial reductions in apnea-hypopnea index among patients with obesity and moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea.[6] These findings make it impossible to dismiss the GLP-1 era as mere pharmaceutical vanity medicine.

Physicians should welcome effective therapies. A patient with severe obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, sleep apnea, impaired mobility, or other obesity-related complications should not be denied a beneficial treatment because society has failed to solve the larger causes of obesity. We treat the patient who exists today, not the healthier society we wish existed. The mistake would be turning that entirely reasonable clinical principle into permission to stop asking the larger question.

What Happens When the Injection Stops?

Perhaps the most revealing aspect of GLP-1 therapy appears when treatment ends. In the STEP 1 extension, participants who discontinued semaglutide regained approximately two-thirds of their previous weight loss during the following year, while many cardiometabolic improvements moved back toward baseline.[14] SURMOUNT-4 demonstrated a similar phenomenon with tirzepatide. After an initial 36-week period during which participants lost an average of 20.9 percent of their body weight, those randomized to discontinue tirzepatide and receive placebo regained substantial weight, whereas those who continued therapy maintained and further increased their weight reduction.[15]

The conventional interpretation is straightforward: obesity is a chronic relapsing disease, and chronic diseases frequently require chronic treatment. This argument has considerable logic. Blood pressure often rises when antihypertensive medications are stopped. LDL cholesterol generally rises after discontinuation of lipid-lowering therapy. Nobody claims that the recurrence of hypertension proves that antihypertensive drugs failed.

The 2026 American Diabetes Association Standards of Care therefore recommend continuing obesity pharmacotherapy beyond achievement of weight-loss goals when indicated for chronic therapy, noting that discontinuation often results in recurrent weight gain and reemergence of cardiometabolic risk factors.[16] The World Health Organization likewise now states that GLP-1 therapies may be used as long-term treatment for adults living with obesity. However, its recommendation is conditional and recognizes the need for comprehensive behavioral and lifestyle intervention.[17]

Yet, obesity differs from many chronic diseases in one important respect: its prevalence changed dramatically within a remarkably short historical period. That should make us cautious about letting "chronic disease" end the discussion. If the environment continually pushes human metabolism toward excess adiposity, and a drug successfully counteracts that pressure only while it is administered, lifelong pharmacotherapy may be entirely appropriate for some patients. But it should simultaneously intensify our interest in the pressure itself. Otherwise, we risk defining successful medicine as the indefinite pharmacological adaptation of human beings to an unhealthy environment.

Losing Weight Is Not the Same As Losing Fat

Another part of this conversation deserves more attention, particularly as these medications expand into older populations. Large reductions in body weight do not consist exclusively of adipose tissue. During weight loss, some lean tissue is generally lost as well, regardless of whether weight reduction occurs through caloric restriction, surgery, or pharmacotherapy. The relevant question is not whether lean mass changes, but how much is lost, in whom, and what the functional consequences may be.

A DXA substudy of SURMOUNT-1 found that participants receiving tirzepatide experienced a 21.3 percent reduction in body weight, accompanied by a 33.9 percent reduction in fat mass and a 10.9 percent reduction in lean mass. Approximately three-quarters of the lost weight was fat, and one-quarter was lean mass.[18] That is a far more nuanced finding than the popular claim that GLP-1 drugs "destroy muscle."

They do not. Body composition generally improves because more fat than lean tissue is lost proportionally. Nevertheless, lean tissue is biologically important, and its loss should not be treated as irrelevant simply because the scale is moving in the desired direction.

This is especially important in older patients, in whom sarcopenia, frailty, falls, osteoporosis, and loss of functional independence already represent major clinical concerns. Skeletal muscle is not decorative tissue. It is central to glucose disposal, mobility, balance, strength, metabolic reserve, and resilience during acute illness.

A 35-year-old with severe obesity losing some lean mass during substantial fat reduction is not clinically equivalent to a frail 78-year-old doing the same. Responsible obesity medicine therefore cannot consist simply of prescribing an injection and celebrating weight loss. Nutrition, adequate protein intake, resistance exercise, physical function, and muscle preservation should become integral parts of treatment. The goal is not to make patients lighter. The goal is to make them healthier.

The Economics of Treating the Consequence

This discussion has an uncomfortable economic dimension that does not require conspiracy theories or accusations of bad faith. Modern health care is exceptionally effective at creating financial structures around treatment. A pharmaceutical product can be researched, patented, manufactured, marketed, prescribed, reimbursed, monitored, and administered repeatedly. Hospitals can build programs around it. Insurers can establish coverage criteria for it. Physicians can prescribe it. Investors can calculate its market. Patients can measure its effects. The entire structure of modern medicine understands how to assign economic value to an intervention.

Prevention is different. No comparable recurring revenue stream is generated when a child grows up eating mostly minimally processed food, sleeping adequately, walking and exercising regularly, maintaining muscle, and never developing metabolic disease. No blockbuster pharmaceutical product is called adequate sleep, no patent exists on resistance exercise, and no quarterly earnings call celebrates the number of patients who never became sick. That does not mean pharmaceutical companies created the obesity epidemic. It means that our economic system has far more powerful mechanisms for rewarding treatment than for rewarding the absence of disease.

The result can emerge without anyone designing it. Industry develops products that generate returns. Physicians work within reimbursement systems built around identifiable diagnoses and interventions. Insurers reimburse treatments meeting defined criteria. Hospitals organize programs around services they can deliver and bill. Patients understandably prefer interventions that produce meaningful results, particularly after years of unsuccessful attempts at weight loss.

Each participant can behave rationally, yet the system can drift toward a remarkable destination: we construct an environment that promotes metabolic dysfunction and then build an increasingly sophisticated medical economy around helping people survive it.

Now the Government Is Buying In

This discussion became even more consequential in 2026. Beginning July 1, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services launched the Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, a demonstration program providing eligible Medicare Part D beneficiaries access to certain GLP-1 drugs with a $50 copayment. The program is scheduled to continue through December 31, 2027.[19] Whatever one thinks about the policy, it represents an important transition. GLP-1 therapy for obesity is no longer simply a matter between an individual patient, physician, insurer, and manufacturer. The federal government is now directly participating in expanded access.

For many patients, this may be excellent news. Obesity disproportionately affects populations that often have the least access to effective treatment, and cost has been a substantial barrier to modern obesity pharmacotherapy. If these medications reduce cardiovascular events, diabetes, kidney disease, sleep apnea, disability, and other obesity-related complications, expanding access may ultimately prove both humane and economically rational. Those outcomes should be studied carefully, not presumed.

But public financing also creates a public obligation to ask what we are buying. Are we purchasing durable reductions in cardiovascular disease, diabetes, disability, and mortality? Are we reducing total health-care expenditure over time? Are patients becoming stronger and metabolically healthier, or simply lighter? What happens after five, ten, or twenty years of treatment? What proportion of patients remain on therapy? What happens to those who discontinue it? What are the nutritional and functional consequences in older adults? And perhaps most importantly, how much are we simultaneously investing in understanding and modifying the conditions that made treatment necessary?

Those questions are not arguments against coverage. They are precisely the questions that should accompany responsible coverage.

Medicine Must Be Able to Hold Two Ideas at Once

Public debates increasingly demand that we choose teams. Either GLP-1 drugs are miracle therapies that should be celebrated without reservation, or they are dangerous pharmaceutical shortcuts that should be rejected in favor of diet and exercise. Both positions are intellectually unsatisfying. Medicine should be able to hold two ideas simultaneously, particularly when both are supported by evidence.

The first is that GLP-1-based therapies represent a major medical advance. They produce substantial weight loss, improve important metabolic parameters, and have demonstrated benefits extending to cardiovascular outcomes, kidney outcomes, and obstructive sleep apnea in appropriately selected populations. [5,6,13] For many patients, they may prevent disease, restore mobility, improve quality of life, and possibly extend survival. Patients who benefit from them should not be ashamed for using them any more than a patient with hypertension should be shamed for taking an antihypertensive medication.

Second, a civilization in which enormous numbers of people may require lifelong pharmacological manipulation of appetite and metabolism to maintain health should be intensely curious about how that situation arose. Calling obesity a chronic disease does not relieve us of that responsibility. If anything, the scale of the disease makes the responsibility greater.

We should therefore reject the false choice between treating obesity and preventing it. Physicians must treat the patient standing in front of them with the best tools available today. Scientists and public health institutions must also investigate why so many patients present with the same problem.

Government should evaluate whether policies affecting food, cities, schools, physical activity, sleep, and environmental exposures promote metabolic health or undermine it. Medicine should study not merely how efficiently we can produce weight loss, but whether we can preserve muscle, metabolic health, function, and independence while doing so.

The Question Our Grandchildren May Ask

Medical history is filled with treatments that became so familiar that physicians stopped asking the questions that originally justified them. Sometimes the treatments were eventually shown to be wrong. Sometimes they were useful but applied too broadly. And sometimes the treatment worked exactly as intended while distracting medicine from a more fundamental cause of disease. The GLP-1 revolution may ultimately belong to an entirely different category: therapies that are genuinely transformative and beneficial, but whose very effectiveness risks concealing the magnitude of the societal failure that made them necessary.

Imagine medicine 20 or 30 years from now. The drugs will almost certainly be better. Oral formulations, combinations of incretin and other metabolic pathways, agents that better preserve lean mass, and therapies we cannot yet imagine may make obesity increasingly controllable. Perhaps cardiovascular disease and diabetes will decline dramatically as a result. That would be a genuine triumph of medical science.

But imagine another possibility as well. Suppose half of the adult population requires continuous pharmacological intervention to maintain metabolic health while children continue entering the same environment that produced the epidemic.

Suppose we become extraordinarily proficient at altering the individual's biology while leaving the biology-disrupting environment essentially untouched. Would we call that prevention? Would we call it health? Or would we have become very good at treating the consequences of something we never dared to confront?

Those are not reasons to take an effective drug away from a patient who needs it. They are reasons to refuse the complacency that can accompany therapeutic success. The physician's responsibility is to treat disease. Medicine's responsibility is larger. It must also remain curious about why disease occurs, particularly when its prevalence changes before our eyes.

The great irony of the GLP-1 era may therefore be that the medications are not the problem at all. They may be among the best tools we have ever developed for treating obesity. The real problem will arise if their success convinces us that the epidemic itself has been solved. A weekly injection can change appetite, body weight, glucose metabolism, cardiovascular risk, and perhaps the trajectory of an individual patient's life. What it cannot do is explain why a condition that affected a relatively small minority of Americans 60 years ago now affects roughly four in ten adults.

We should use these medications when they improve our patients' lives. We should study them rigorously, monitor their long-term consequences, make access rational and equitable, and resist both their demonization and their indiscriminate use. But every prescription should coexist with a much larger scientific question, one that medicine should have been asking with far greater urgency for decades: what did we change that made so many people sick?

The tragedy of the GLP-1 era will not be that these drugs failed. The tragedy will be if they succeed so spectacularly that an entire generation of physicians stops asking why we needed them in the first place.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 18:25

Gun Jams, Knife Comes Out: One Dead After Bizarre Courthouse Shooting In Nashville

Zero Hedge -

Gun Jams, Knife Comes Out: One Dead After Bizarre Courthouse Shooting In Nashville

A man armed with a pistol was shot and killed by a security officer at the Fred D. Thompson Federal Building and Courthouse in Nashville on Thursday morning, WSMV reported, citing Metro Nashville police.

Police said the man tried to fire his gun at the courthouse security checkpoint but failed, then pulled out a knife and was shot by the security officer. He was taken to Vanderbilt University Medical Center, where he died. A police spokesperson said it was "the first time anything like this has happened at this courthouse," and that the man did not get past the checkpoint.

The man was in his 40s and from out of state, with "ties to Nashville," police said. His name has not been released. Officers searched his car, parked nearby, and "found nothing threatening" inside, police spokesperson Don Aaron told reporters, according to the Nashville Banner.

The shooter reportedly worked with the U.S. Marshals Service, according to reports (he was not a US Marshal himself). The Tennessee Bureau of Investigation is taking over the inquiry into the shooting and the officer's actions. First Assistant U.S. Attorney Rob McGuire said federal officials will work with the TBI to establish the facts, adding, "Right now there's a lot that we're still learning."

The Nashville Public Library's main branch nearby was evacuated after the shooting.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 18:00

Pharmaceutical Lobby Sues Over Trump Admin Program To Reduce Drug Prices

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Pharmaceutical Lobby Sues Over Trump Admin Program To Reduce Drug Prices

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A lobbying group that represents pharmaceutical manufacturers filed suit against the federal government on Oct. 7 over a program aimed at reducing the prices of drugs.

The Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA) stated in a legal complaint in federal court in Washington that the most-favored-nation policy, planned for Medicare by the Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), illegally imposes foreign price controls.

"[The program] is unlawful and clearly exceeds CMS' authority," Stephen Ubl, president and CEO of the lobbying organization, said in a statement.

"The policy doesn't make medicines more affordable for most beneficiaries, while putting future medical innovation and patient access at risk. We share the administration's goal of ensuring Americans can access and afford their medicines, but CMS cannot rewrite the law and bypass Congress to impose foreign price controls. Patients need more choices and more breakthroughs - not government price-setting schemes that undermine both."

The Department of Health and Human Services, the parent agency of CMS and one of the defendants named in the suit, did not return a request for comment by publication time. CMS has stated in notices that it has statutory authority to implement changes to drug pricing, including from portions of the Social Security Act.

Government officials have also pointed to part of the act stating that there shall be no judicial review of certain changes to pricing.

PhRMA, which represents 34 manufacturers including Pfizer and Sanofi, filed suit against the government during the first Trump administration over an earlier iteration of the pricing rule. A federal judge entered a temporary restraining order, ruling in favor of the group.

The rule was withdrawn after Joe Biden became president.

President Donald Trump in 2025 announced a new most-favored-nation pricing effort and has since unveiled agreements with dozens of manufacturers, including Pfizer, Merck, and GlaxoSmithKline.

"Americans - who have for decades paid, by far, the highest prices of any nation anywhere in the world for prescription drugs - will now pay the lowest price anywhere in the world for drugs," Trump said in a speech in February.

One of the components is an update to Medicare's drug pricing model, basing pricing on the average sales price across a number of nations. The rule, due to take effect on Jan. 1, 2027, "would untether Medicare pricing from the statute and the American market, instead importing foreign price controls from 19 countries," the new lawsuit states.

Officials do not have a statutory basis to implement the program, PhRMA stated in the complaint.

"CMS relies on an obscure statutory provision," it stated, "[which does not give it] carte blanche to rewrite the Medicare program to fit policy priorities that Congress has not authorized."

Market-based pricing is critical for ensuring that Americans can access vital medicines, the lobbying group stated, and keeping the program in place would "upend ... stability and predictability, harming seniors and imperiling our nation's global pharmaceutical leadership."

The group is asking the court to declare the program illegal and prohibit government officials from enforcing it.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 17:40

Wells Fargo Faces Federal Probe Over $60 Billion Commitment To Black Homeownership

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Wells Fargo Faces Federal Probe Over $60 Billion Commitment To Black Homeownership

Wells Fargo is facing a federal investigation over mortgage programs designed to increase homeownership among Black Americans, as the Trump administration expands its campaign against corporate policies that make distinctions based on race, according to the Wall Street Journal.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the Department of Housing and Urban Development is examining whether the bank's lending practices gave certain borrowers advantages because of their racial backgrounds, potentially running afoul of federal housing discrimination laws.

The controversy stems from a series of commitments Wells Fargo made beginning in 2017, including a plan to provide $60 billion in financing aimed at helping 250,000 additional Black Americans purchase homes over the following decade. The bank later introduced refinancing assistance targeting minority households, partly in response to criticism of its mortgage approval record.

The WSJ writes that by the end of 2023, Wells Fargo had delivered roughly 40% of the financing it originally promised. Its refinancing initiative had also reached approximately 5,100 borrowers, reducing their monthly payments by an average of $100. The bank has since largely stopped promoting these programs publicly.

HUD Secretary Scott Turner argued that the bank's approach raises serious questions about whether Americans were being treated differently because of their race, regardless of the programs' stated intentions.

“Even if Wells Fargo did not violate the law, its practice of dividing Americans based on race is immoral, unethical and un-American,” Turner said.

The investigation comes as Washington takes a more aggressive approach toward diversity-related corporate policies that became widespread following the racial justice protests of 2020. Other major companies, including IBM and Deloitte, have already reached multimillion-dollar settlements involving allegations tied to diversity considerations in employment decisions.

Federal housing officials are reportedly looking into comparable lending initiatives at other banks as well, suggesting Wells Fargo may be only the beginning of a much wider examination of race-conscious financial programs.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 15:40

Nasdaq Tumbles After FT Reports OpenAI Revenues Disappointing

Zero Hedge -

Nasdaq Tumbles After FT Reports OpenAI Revenues Disappointing

...and just like that, the massive AI CapEx boom "excess demand" narrative is in doubt...

The Financial Times reports that OpenAI’s annualised revenue is about $20bn less than has been previously signalled, according to financial documents shared with investors, a massive gap likely to damp optimism about the growth of AI demand.

The company has recently told investors its revenues were approaching $50bn on an annualized basis at the end of September, far short of the $70bn reported by the FT and other media outlets late last month based on information that was provided to investors.

The most immediate reaction was in Nasdaq which tumbled over 1%...

The Broad AI basket is getting whacked...

Who could have seen that coming with Token Costs plumbing new lows?

And in the tokenized stock market for OpenAI (PreStocks), things aren't looking great: 

How many more of the prior statements are about to be proved false?

The entire shell-game is based on the 'demand'... and if revenues are that big a miss from expectations, there is an even bigger disconnect relative to liabilities...

That's ok, OpenAI only has $1.5 trillion in commitments to... checks circular financing diagram... EVERYONE...

How long before the spins and denials?

* * *

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 15:35

Microreactors Rack Up Wins With Grid-Scale Plants Stuck At Planning Meetings

Zero Hedge -

Microreactors Rack Up Wins With Grid-Scale Plants Stuck At Planning Meetings

At the smaller end of the nuclear industry, tangible progress is becoming easier to find every week. Equipment is getting manufactured and delivered, safety reviews are being completed, and uranium is being split apart.

This is painfully contrasted against what the grid-scale reactor side of the house has to show for the past couple years of the American nuclear renaissance: big announcements about fancy plans…

Start with Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) MARVEL reactor. INL announced DOE approval of the final safety analysis covering zero-power criticality. Its primary coolant system has arrived, and criticality is anticipated in December.

MARVEL is the sodium-cooled microreactor design that the reactor being commercialized by Aalo Atomics is based on.

Last Energy followed up the MARVEL news the next day with DOE approval of the final safety analysis for its Texas A&M reactor pilot. The project now advances into the final stages of preparation before startup authorization. Its full-scale core and conventional low-enriched uranium fuel connect the experiment directly to the company’s commercial design.

Deep Fission, the reactor company placing their pressurized water design underground, received DOE approval of its nuclear safety design agreement in August.

The company also lowered and retrieved a prototype canister simulating their reactor design. The test reached 100 feet, well short of the proposed mile-deep reactor deployment, but it tested actual hardware.

Even if they have nothing to show for getting an AP1000 actually deployed, Westinghouse wasn’t to be left out of the headlines. They’ve been making progress with their eVinci microreactor program, having recently completed high-temperature criticality experiments in September.

Radiant Nuclear at least deserves a place on the watchlist with their gas-cooled Kaleidos reactor installed at INL’s DOME. The company could announce criticality on their test reactor by the end of the year. 

Now compare all of this to what the grid-scale reactors have been up to. Even the most recent $120 billion U.S.-Korea framework is relatively hollow: the terms are non-binding and sites haven’t even been selected…

The demand for nuclear energy has never been stronger, but it's not a demand for greenfield projects. Hyperscalers are in the process of contracting every single existing nuclear megawatt they can find.

Existing, not new. 

The only new megawatts data centers seem to be interested in are the ones they can squeeze from already operating plants.The recent deal between Google and Constellation could lead to as much power from a collection of uprates as an entirely new reactor plant being built.

We’re even seeing tech companies more interested in resurrecting dead plants than building new ones.

It's not an apples-to-apples comparison when it comes to microreactors and gigawatt-scale plants like the AP1000. But, it is disappointing to see the lack of serious and specific project announcements for restoring reliability to the national grid.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 15:20

Hurricane Shuts 63% Of US Gulf Oil Output, Threatens Refineries; Jefferies Warns Of "Fuel Supply Event"

Zero Hedge -

Hurricane Shuts 63% Of US Gulf Oil Output, Threatens Refineries; Jefferies Warns Of "Fuel Supply Event"

Summary:

  • Hurricane Isaias Landfall Forecasted For Late Friday/early Saturday 
  • Major US Refineries In Hurricane's Projected Path 
  • 63% Of US Offshore Gulf Oil Output Shut 
  • 25% Of US Offshore Gulf Oil Output Shut As Hurricane Isaias Nears, Threatens Refineries
Hurricane Isaias Shutters 63% of US Gulf Oil Production

Bloomberg cites data from the Marine Minerals Administration showing US Gulf offshore oil producers have halted about 1.28 million barrels per day, equivalent to shutting in 63% of regional output.

Natural gas shut-ins reached 1.127 billion cubic feet a day, equivalent to 57% of the region's production.

By noon Central Time, workers from 121 offshore platforms had evacuated, while four rigs had moved outside Hurricane Isaias' cone of uncertainty.

This is a massive temporary hit to US crude supply. For NatGas, the national production impact is much smaller.

The next big issue is that refineries may see a decline in crude supply as offshore platforms reduce flows. Any refinery outage from storm-related damage would reduce fuel product production as a global refining crisis deepens.

Major Refineries In Crosshairs

Jefferies consumer staples analyst Kaumil Gajrawala warned clients ealrier today: "Hurricane Isaias is a fuel supply event hitting a system already stretched by the Iran war. ~25% of Gulf crude output is shut in (~4% of US production), but fuel inventories are low and diesel is $6.30 vs. $3.68 a year ago. A small disruption now has outsized price consequences. The second-order effect is freight cost, which favors asset-light models like KO (Buy), where bottlers carry the fleet and fuel exposure." 

As we noted earlier today, any abrupt westward shift in the hurricane's cone of uncertainty would put major refineries at risk, including Chevron's Pascagoula refinery on Mississippi's Gulf Coast. It refines 369,000 barrels of crude a day into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and premium base oils.

Landfall impacts for portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle are expected late Friday into Saturday morning.

25% Of US Offshore Gulf Oil Output Shut As Hurricane Isaias Nears, Threatens Refineries

Hurricane Isaias forced offshore oil and natural gas producers in the Gulf of America to halt a sizable amount of production as the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season churned toward the coast, with potential landfall impacts across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Isaias had sustained winds of 75 miles per hour and was about 460 miles south-southwest of the Mississippi River mouth overnight, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Producers with offshore rigs have already shuttered 25% of crude output and 16% of NatGas production and evacuated workers from eight platforms and two rigs.

Models increasingly point to landfall late Friday night or early Saturday morning east of major energy assets onshore and offshore in Mississippi and Louisiana. 

An abrupt westward shift in the hurricane's cone of uncertainty would put major refineries at risk, including Chevron's Pascagoula refinery on Mississippi's Gulf Coast. It refines 369,000 barrels of crude a day into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and premium base oils.

The disruption to offshore oil and NatGas rigs comes as a global refining crisis deepens, and there is little room for error in the US, as refineries operate near full capacity.

Enki Research risk modeler Chuck Watson said that oil and NatGas outages would likely last no more than a week if the forecast track holds.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 15:17

Trump Treasury Blocks $175 Million In Federal Payments To Dead Recipients

Zero Hedge -

Trump Treasury Blocks $175 Million In Federal Payments To Dead Recipients

Authored by AG News Staff via American Greatness,

The Treasury Department blocked $175 million in federal payments from going to deceased recipients in fiscal year 2026 as the Trump administration expanded efforts to prevent fraud and improper government spending.

Treasury screened more than 1.1 billion federal payments totaling approximately $3.7 trillion during the fiscal year, identifying and returning about 13,500 payments that otherwise would have gone to people listed as deceased, according to the department.

The results represent another step in President Donald Trump's push to tighten safeguards around taxpayer money. Access to Treasury's "Do Not Pay" system expanded from roughly 4 percent of federal programs at the end of fiscal 2025 to 99 percent in fiscal 2026.

"Treasury continues to transform how the federal government protects taxpayer dollars by using better data, stronger controls, and advanced technology to stop fraud and improper payments before money goes out the door," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

The administration's efforts received praise from Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., who spent years pushing legislation giving Treasury permanent access to Social Security death records.

"Unless you were playing Frisbee in the quad during Econ 101, you know the federal government shouldn't be sending taxpayer money to dead people," Kennedy said.

Congress advanced legislation to permanently authorize the Social Security Administration to share its full Death Master File with Treasury's Do Not Pay system, giving federal agencies more complete death information when determining eligibility for payments.

Treasury has also added safeguards to verify bank account ownership and Taxpayer Identification Numbers associated with federal payments. Those capabilities became fully operational Sept. 30, allowing Treasury to flag payments that fail verification before the money leaves government coffers.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 15:05

Citi Calls Aerospace, Defense Stocks "Close To Major Tactical Bottom" After Brutal Selloff

Zero Hedge -

Citi Calls Aerospace, Defense Stocks "Close To Major Tactical Bottom" After Brutal Selloff

US aerospace and defense stocks have been tracking lower as Polymarket odds assign Democrats a higher chance of taking the Senate.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 Aerospace & Defense index approaching bear-market territory, down roughly 20% from its summer high, as Polymarket's implied probability of Democratic Senate control topped 64%.

A nearly 20% slide in aerospace and defense stocks is drawing interest from trading desks looking to buy the dip, though stepping in now risks catching a proverbial falling knife.

Citi aerospace and defense analyst John Godyn sees an opportunity to begin adding exposure. In a note Wednesday, his team outlined that many of these stocks are "close enough to a major tactical bottom." 

"Both aerospace and defense have simultaneously experienced major pullbacks and, while 3Q26 is set up to be a volatile EPS season, we think that we are close enough to a major tactical bottom in many stocks to again advocate for buying the dip selectively: Opening Positive Catalyst Watch on RTX," Godyn said.

The market's big disconnect is that Polymarket odds are weighing on these names, as fears of a Democratic sweep in the midterms early next month could cloud the outlook for military spending. But as Godyn pointed out, all of this uncertainty is happening while the proposed military spending pipeline keeps expanding.

The analyst continued, "Within defense, prefer SMID-cap defense stocks aligned with the highest growth multi-year megatrends through 3Q26 earnings: Opening Positive Catalyst Watch on HII today and revisiting others post AUSA." 

"As usual, we conducted a supplier survey (sample size of 100) to validate company commentary and build conviction: Our top OE-levered pick remains HWM, where we have a pre-existing Positive Catalyst Watch," he added. 

Godyn shows that aerospace and defense stocks in his coverage universe have taken a beating:

He notes that market positioning is more positive in aerospace names than in defense names.

For defense stocks, Godyn says the "outlook is strong," but the funding debate still rages on.

Professional subscribers can read more on aerospace and defense here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 14:40

From Force Majeure To Forced Haulage: Oracle Is Now Trucking Natural Gas To Its AI Data Centers

Zero Hedge -

From Force Majeure To Forced Haulage: Oracle Is Now Trucking Natural Gas To Its AI Data Centers

Two weeks ago, Oracle told the world that Project Jupiter, its massive 2.45GW New Mexico mega-campus for OpenAI, was "on schedule." It also sent a force majeure notice to the developer.

Today we found out how it plans to square that circle: with a lot of trucks.

According to Bloomberg, Oracle has been quietly keeping several data centers on track by hauling compressed natural gas (CNG) by road straight to the server farms, and is now weighing the same stopgap for Project Jupiter, where the gas pipeline that is supposed to feed the campus is running late and threatening the timeline. The plan would let Oracle bring the early phases online before the pipe enters service.

Oracle shares slid about 5.5% on the report...

.... while Bloom Energy (BE), which happens to have a 2.4GW fuel cell contract for Project Jupiter (fuel cells which, last we checked, run on natural gas), tumbled 8%

Regular Readers Will Recall...

Back on Sept 24, we reported that Oracle had sent a force majeure notice to Blue Owl's Stack Infrastructure unit over Jupiter, citing potential power delays, and that Oracle and Bloom immediately launched a reassurance tour insisting everything was fine. Our take at the time: companies don't issue force majeure notices because everything is going fantastically.

Today's story suggests we were, if anything, too polite.

The root of the problem is a pipeline. Energy Transfer (ET) had to reroute the line that will ultimately power Jupiter after state regulators rejected the proposed route (per DCD, the rejection came in July after an initial application was denied in March), pushing the in-service date from this summer to next year. Meanwhile, Oracle has also put out an RFP for 2GW of new renewables in New Mexico, which tells you just how many backup plans the "on schedule" project now requires.

The "Virtual Pipeline"

And it's not just New Mexico. Per Bloomberg, trucked gas kept an Oracle data center outside Salt Lake City moving for more than a year while it waited for its pipeline, with Superior Plus's Certarus doing the hauling. Oracle is also using it for initial work at its OpenAI campus in Shackelford County, Texas, where VoltaGrid is the supplier.

Oracle's massive Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico.

A small cottage industry of CNG haulers has spotted the opportunity and is now pitching "virtual pipeline" services to hyperscalers desperate to start generating compute before the actual pipes show up. Oracle, for its part, seemed thrilled, publicly thanking VoltaGrid on X for its "cost-effective power solutions" shortly after Bloomberg came asking questions.

About that "cost-effective" part.

East Daley Analytics' Jack Weixel told Bloomberg that once you add up labor, specialized equipment and the diesel to move the trucks themselves, delivered CNG costs roughly four times the price of gas at a major pipeline hub. The process is about as elegant as it sounds: gas is pulled off a pipeline, compressed into a trailer, driven for hours to the site, then decompressed to feed the generators. Even a modest AI data center needs trucks arriving constantly around the clock. Diversification at its finest.

There is a reason this approach has historically been reserved for remote mines and oil rigs far from the grid, not for the crown jewels of the AI buildout.

The Napkin Math Gets Ugly Fast

The real question is scale. SemiAnalysis energy analyst Ellie Holbrook told Bloomberg that if Oracle ran just 100MW of Jupiter (roughly 4% of its eventual 2.45GW) on trucked gas, each large trailer would supply only about 40 minutes of electricity.

Let's do the (approximate) math:

  • 100MW at 40 minutes per trailer = ~36 trailers a day, or one every 40 minutes, 24/7/365.
  • Scale that to the full 2.45GW and you need roughly 880 trailers a day, or one pulling up to the gate every 90 seconds or so... forever.

Put differently, trucking can get the lights on in the lobby, not power a gigawatt-scale AI campus. It's a bridge, and a very expensive one, to a pipeline that New Mexico regulators have already sent back to the drawing board once.

And Oracle can hardly afford expensive bridges right now: as Bloomberg notes, the company's free cash flow is negative and expected to stay that way until more of its AI data centers are completed, while it has staked billions (and its reputation) on delivering capacity for OpenAI on time. Paying a 4x premium on fuel to keep the schedule intact is exactly the kind of cost that never shows up in the investor-day slides, right up until it shows up in the margins.

Bottom Line

As we have argued for a long time, the binding constraint on the AI boom isn't GPUs, it's power, and the "solution" of building on-site gas generation only works if the gas actually arrives. When the gas comes by truck at four times the price, the "behind the meter" model starts to look a lot like "behind the 18-wheeler."

Oracle insists Jupiter remains on schedule, and maybe it does. But when the fallback plan for a $165 billion, 2.45GW campus is an around-the-clock convoy of CNG trailers, the more likely outcome is the one hinted at by the force majeure notice: delays, higher costs, or both, with Bloom, Blue Owl and the rest of the Jupiter financing chain along for the ride.

Then again, nothing says "AI supercycle" quite like a trucking dispatch schedule.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 14:21

'Bunker Mode': OpenAI's Jaw-Dropping Math Blitz Draws Boycott, Warning Over Crypto Wallets

Zero Hedge -

'Bunker Mode': OpenAI's Jaw-Dropping Math Blitz Draws Boycott, Warning Over Crypto Wallets

OpenAI just unleashed hundreds of AI-generated mathematical papers in a single release, which include breakthroughs on problems that have frustrated researchers for generations. The pace of discovery here has started to freak out mathematicians - who are now calling for a boycott - while top minds in crypto are raising a chilling question: could AI eventually undermine the mathematics protecting digital wallets before quantum computing?

On October 6, the company published 722 manuscripts covering 372 groups of related findings, all generated by an internal AI model that has not been released to the public. The papers appeared in a public GitHub repository. OpenAI says the work emerged from testing the model on roughly 4,000 research problems, with each result in the final collection using, on average, computing power equivalent to about three hours of ChatGPT Pro's thinking mode. The collection includes claims about prime numbers, geometry and the mathematics underlying computing, touching problems that have resisted some of the world's best minds for decades.

Perhaps the most startling claim concerns the Riemann hypothesis, a mathematical puzzle dating to 1859 that deals with the hidden patterns governing prime numbers - the building blocks from which every whole number greater than one can be made.

For math nerds: 

Mathematicians study those patterns through a special mathematical function, looking in particular at the points where it equals zero. The full Riemann hypothesis predicts that all the important zeros fall along one precise line. OpenAI's model has not proved that. Instead, it claims to have ruled out zeros across an enormous, permanently defined region where previous proofs offered a much narrower guarantee. If the claim holds up, it would be a major advance toward understanding one of mathematics' most famous unsolved problems.

For specialists, the dividing line in the new claim is a value of 7/8, while the full hypothesis would require 1/2. The related equations are known as the Riemann zeta function and Dirichlet L-functions. For everyone else, the point is simpler: the AI claims to have established a far stronger limit on where these crucial mathematical points can appear, without claiming to have settled the entire puzzle.

Other OpenAI papers claim progress on the Hodge conjecture - which concerns the structure of complex geometric shapes - though only for a class of objects called CM abelian varieties.

Math nerds rejoice? Or panic?

Rutgers mathematician Alex Kontorovich was emphatic in his response to OpenAI's announcement:

The release follows OpenAI's September 8 announcement claiming to have solved the Navier-Stokes problem, which concerns the mathematical laws governing moving fluids. That earlier announcement had already sparked disputes over verification and who should receive credit for the work.

The backlash is about more than whether the proofs are correct. On October 7, the Association for Human Mathematics (AHM) urged researchers to stop working with OpenAI, arguing that the company had disregarded scientific norms by using a proprietary model to tackle advanced mathematics and then releasing the results on an unprecedented scale.

"Releasing over 700 files at once is not a demonstration of scholarship, but a demonstration of power," the group said. Its statement rejects OpenAI's assertion that the release advances the field and calls for a return to research centered on human understanding.

AHM is separate from the independent Advisory Group on Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence (AGMAI), whose recommendations OpenAI says informed the release. In guidelines issued September 29, that group explicitly asked AI laboratories to stop testing advanced mathematical problems on proprietary models inaccessible to the research community. But it also laid out a process for responsibly publishing results already generated, including proper citations, formal verification where feasible, independent repositories and support for human researchers trying to understand the work.

After the release, AGMAI emphasized that consultation did not mean endorsement of OpenAI's approach. It treated the publication as the beginning of scientific scrutiny, not the end. Researchers are arguing over who gets to set the scientific agenda, who can access the most powerful tools and what counts as responsible publication - not simply whether computers should be allowed to do mathematics.

Mathematician and commentator Eric Weinstein responded with a sharply different interpretation, accusing scientists of standing in the way of progress:

Game Over, Man?

The implications are reaching beyond university mathematics departments.

On October 7, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake urged the cryptocurrency industry to begin preparing for what he called "bunker mode." His concern is that AI could eventually discover a mathematical shortcut for breaking the digital signatures used to protect Bitcoin, Ethereum and other assets - potentially before the powerful quantum computers that security researchers have long worried about arrive.

Every conventional cryptocurrency wallet relies on a secret private key to authorize transactions and a related public key to verify them. Finding the public key from the private one is easy; reversing the process is designed to be practically impossible. Drake fears an advanced AI could discover a shortcut that makes that reversal feasible on ordinary computing hardware. In a worst-case scenario, he suggested that the widely used ECDSA signature system could become vulnerable in months rather than years. He offered that as a possibility to prepare for, not a demonstrated breach.

Entire tweet below.

For some Bitcoin address types, an unused address conceals its public key behind a cryptographic hash until its funds are spent - so Drake recommends a gradual move to fresh addresses, particularly by large holders whose public keys have already been exposed. He repeatedly warned against rushing: moving money incorrectly can be more dangerous than the hypothetical attack the move is meant to prevent. His advice is not a universal fix for every wallet or address format.

The warning drew sharply different reactions. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin agreed that rapid advances in AI-powered mathematics deserve serious attention, but cautioned that botched wallet migrations can cause real losses. Yehuda Lindell, Coinbase's head of cryptography, went further, saying there was "no evidence whatsoever" that the mathematical foundations of elliptic-curve security had been weakened. Drake went further still, noting the "striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs" among OpenAI's results and alleging he has seen the US government censor academic quantum cryptanalysis first-hand - "backroom interventionism is my base case." He offered no direct evidence of intervention in this release.

Back to the OpenAI release (which doesn't suggest a crypto compromise) - it has seen a few corrections. According to OpenAI's own revision history, a sign error in one paper's proof invalidated it along with two papers built on its construction, and all three - involving Weil classes and K3 surfaces - were withdrawn on October 7. Those withdrawals are distinct from the separately listed claim about CM abelian varieties. The company also revised 14 other manuscripts to repair proofs, correct statements or clarify assumptions, and updated references in 13 more. Its repository now lists 719 manuscripts.

OpenAI says the main results in 300 of the remaining 719 papers - about 42% - have been translated into Lean, specialized software that checks whether each step of a mathematical proof follows logically from the assumptions.  The software checks the statement it is given, but mathematicians still (for now!) have to determine whether that statement captures what the paper claims to prove. And for results without such computer checks, OpenAI itself acknowledges that some may contain mistakes.

The model that produced the work is still a black box controlled by OpenAI. The company has released selected reasoning summaries and promised to support workshops and further verification, but the broader mathematical community still faces the task of sorting durable advances from claims that will need revision - or withdrawal.

That leaves two questions hanging over the release. Can independent mathematicians verify discoveries arriving faster than they can reasonably review them? And if increasingly powerful AI begins changing fields as consequential as cryptography, who gets to decide how that knowledge is tested, shared and put to use?

Drake's entire tweet: 

Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash.

Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase).

Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets.

IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster).

Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot.

Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time?

Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.)

Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once.

Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case.

I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026).

Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS.

Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security.

The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.

 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 13:50

Mediocre 30Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since August 2000

Zero Hedge -

Mediocre 30Y Auction Prices At Highest Yield Since August 2000

After a subpar 3Y auction on Tuesday, and a stellar 10Y yesterday, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week's final coupon sale when it sold $22BN in 30Y paper in an average auction. 

The 30Y sale priced just after 1pm, stopping out at a 5.618% high yield, up sharply from 5.308% in September, and the highest since August 2000!

The high yield stopped through the When Issued by 0.1bps: good, but not as good as last month's amazing 2.7bps stop through.

The bid to cover was 2.542, a drop from last month's 2.612 but above the recent average of 2.411.

The internals were also average: indirects dropped from last month's near-record 79.5% to 72.3%, but that was also above the recent average of 69.1%. Directs took down 20.9%, up from 18.3% and in line with the recent average of 20.6%. And while not nearly as low as yesterday's record low, the Dealers award was 6.8%, one of the lowest on record but a rebound from September's record low 2.2%.

Overall this was a good auction, but would have been much better if the market had some time to digest the news that OpenAI's revenue was, in fact, much lower than it had previously disclosed (imagine that) which has helped send yields sharply lower as the Treasury market suddenly realizes it may not have to compete with the AI bubble for paper much longer... 

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 13:39

Yes, The Public Education System Is Broken

Zero Hedge -

Yes, The Public Education System Is Broken

Authored by Amy Denton via PJ Media,

I have been in education for a long time. My first teaching job came two weeks after my younger nephew was born. His birthday is next week, and he'll be 29. Take out the five years when I was working in retail and going to graduate school, and I've been a teacher for 24 years. There is not enough money in the world to tempt me back into public education. I'd rather stay poor, thank you. I keep hearing about a teacher shortage. That's incorrect. There's not a teacher shortage; there's a people willing to be treated like dirt shortage. Why? How did public education come to this sad state? Jonathan Turley's opinion piece in The Hill speaks to the problem and nails it right to the wall.

His opinion piece titled "The Blue-State Model for Education has Failed, and the Public has Caught On" states early on that one of the reasons the public schools have gone down the drain is because of the teachers' unions. Early in the article, Turley states, "New polling shows that K-12 education has now reached a record low in the number of people who are even "somewhat satisfied" with the state of education in the U.S." He then talks about the "education cartel," a self-sustaining, self-perpetuating alliance between unions and politicians. The cartel has rendered families and students irrelevant.

How is that possible? people ask. Without the students, there is no school system. It doesn't matter to the cartel. As long as the money keeps coming, which it does through dues, the cartel continues to operate. Personally, I have very little experience with the teachers' unions. I joined the American Federation of Teachers briefly so I could get some legal help regarding the principal at the high school where I taught. I was a second-year teacher, and he had determined that I needed to go. He was black, and I was white. The AFT pointed me to the union steward at my high school, a government teacher who was also one of the basketball coaches. He told me that there was nothing the principal could do to force me from the building. I had to leave on my own. I'm a stubborn soul, so I was determined that the principal was going to leave first. He did, two years later.

Was the advice I got worth the annual membership? Absolutely. But that was twenty years ago. I dropped my membership the next year. Today, I wouldn't join any teachers' union because at their very core, they are about representing the teachers, not the students. The unions protect every teacher, even the teachers who have no business being anywhere near a classroom. In the states where teachers are required to join a union, the power is tenfold over the states that give teachers a choice, the right-to-work states.

In states where union membership is required, even if the teacher is able to quit the union, the union will still take a deduction from the teacher's paycheck unless the teacher stands up and says "No." In 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court in Janus vs. AFSCME (American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees) said that taking dues from non-union members was a violation of the First Amendment. This had an effect on union membership, which dropped by 10% after the ruling. However, the unions are not letting the decision slow them down. One year after the Janus ruling, a full 52% of teachers surveyed did not know they could leave the union without paying a fee. We are now eight years after the Janus decision, and the deep blue Democrat states with powerful teachers' unions are working to make it easy to join a union but very hard to leave.

Aren't unions supposed to protect workers and allow them to negotiate on a level playing field with their bosses? During the time of the Robber Barons in the early 1900s, yes. Today, most unions serve no purpose other than to enrich their heads. Both the head of the National Education Association (NEA) and the American Federation of Teachers (AFT) make six figures. The head of the Chicago Teachers Union makes six figures. Their salaries come from dues. Fewer dues-paying members, lower salaries. If the unions actually promoted better teaching and better practices, I would have no problem with them, but they don't. The problem? Money. As long as the money keeps flowing to the unions, they can do whatever they want.

While the NEA, the AFT, and state and city teachers' unions rake in the money, the students suffer. Children do not learn basic math and reading skills when they should and are simply passed along, because holding a child back today makes the school and the school district look bad. As I stated in another article, public schools are all about making things look good without any actual work being done. It's the Gilded Age all over again, but in public education.

Teachers are not allowed to give grades below 50 even if the student has never done any work. The teachers who question the policy are labeled as "difficult" or "troublemakers." Anything that makes the schools and school districts look less than perfect is seen as a problem. Rather than correcting the problem, schools cover it up. The "troublemakers" are given poor evaluations, denied the renewal of their teaching contracts, or even fired from the school and the district because they dare to question the system.

Students who graduate from high school with barely the basics struggle in college. Faculty at Harvard have been reduced to teaching high school math to incoming freshmen because the freshmen have no knowledge base. They never received it. This past May, the University of California reported an alarming lack of math knowledge among incoming students. The University of California, San Diego, faculty report showed a 30-fold increase since 2020 of incoming students whose math abilities fell below the high school level. Guess which political party most of the college professors in California vote for? California also has a very strong teachers' union. Ninety percent of teachers in California are union members. They are voting for their own destruction.

It's not just math that high school students are doing poorly in. The Los Angeles Times reported in 2023 that most California students cannot read or do math on grade level. How is that possible? When the people running the system don't care what the students can or can't do, it makes it easy to ignore the problems. It's not just California with poor test scores; the deep blue Democrat states have the biggest problems. It's not like they care.

What is the solution? Is there a solution? Turley states that school vouchers appear to be the only way to take control from the education cartel, by introducing real competition based on academic performance. I agree with him. I am 100% pro-school choice. Like him, I believe in the public schools. My parents, I, my siblings, and their children went to public schools, but what's going on today in the public school system is not acceptable.

School systems cannot simply keep churning out people who do not have the basic skills needed to survive in life. School vouchers, which allow parents to choose which school their children attend, take care of the biggest problem in public education: money. The less money the school systems get, the less there is to waste. When parents have a choice of schools to send their children to, very few choose to send their children to substandard schools.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/08/2026 - 13:15

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