Commercial Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filings Decrease Annually, But...

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

There were 666 commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings made in the United States in July, a 27 percent drop from a year ago, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI).

Chapter 11 bankruptcy allows a business to reorganize its debts so it can continue operating and eventually become solvent. In addition to a decline in Chapter 11 filings, overall commercial bankruptcy filings declined in July, falling by 8 percent year over year, ABI said in an Aug. 6 statement.

The decline in July's commercial filings followed improved economic conditions in June. The 12-month inflation rate declined in June from the previous month after surging for three consecutive months.

According to a July 24 report from S&P Global, U.S. business activity growth accelerated to an eight-month high last month, with business confidence in the year-ahead outlook rising to an eight-month high as well.

ABI clarified that although the number of Chapter 11 filings fell this year, more than 300 filings were made in connection with a large healthcare system's bankruptcy.

A hiring ad at a store in Columbia, Md., on Sept. 18, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

Meanwhile, despite the overall decline in Chapter 11 filings, subchapter V bankruptcy elections within Chapter 11, which represent filings by small businesses, rose 24 percent in July from a year earlier.

This is despite an improvement in small business optimism in June, according to a July 14 statement from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said in the statement that lower fuel costs provided relief for businesses, with companies expecting operating conditions to improve over the coming six months.

"While there have been improvements in the overall environment, high interest rates and modest economic growth are causing owners to approach hiring and capital spending with caution," Dunkelberg said.

Total subchapter V elections in July totaled 234 filings, ABI said in its recent statement.

Amy Quackenboss, ABI executive director, said in the statement that bankruptcy serves as a "critical safeguard" for businesses to reorganize their finances and move forward under conditions of financial distress.

"ABI appreciates the continued efforts of Congress to permanently expand access for both distressed small businesses looking to restructure under subchapter V and for consumers looking to file under chapter 13," Quackenboss said.

Quackenboss was referring to the Bankruptcy Threshold Adjustment Act of 2026 introduced in the Senate by Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) in March.

The Act seeks to permanently raise the small-business Chapter 11 bankruptcy debt threshold to $7.5 million. This threshold is the maximum debt limit a business can have when applying for such bankruptcy.

On Aug. 3, the Senate passed the bill. The legislation now heads to the House of Representatives for approval.

In an Aug. 4 statement from Grassley's office, the lawmaker commended the Senate for unanimously passing the Act.

"Our nation's bankruptcy code should work for Americans, not against them," Grassley said in the statement, while calling on members of the House to quickly pass the legislation.

"By eliminating barriers to reorganization and restoring modern debt limits, the bipartisan Bankruptcy Threshold Adjustment Act would provide American families and small businesses the tools they need to regain their financial footing in a quicker, more streamlined process."

The bill also seeks to raise the debt limit for Chapter 13 filings by individuals to $2.75 million.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration has taken action to ensure businesses have access to sufficient financing to operate.

On July 4, a new policy went into effect that allows businesses to secure up to $10 million by combining two Small Business Administration (SBA) loan programs - 7(a) and 504 loans.

The 7(a) loan program provides financial assistance of up to $5 million, while the 504 loan program has a maximum limit of $5.5 million. Previously, a business could only take $5 million cumulatively from both initiatives. The new update effectively doubles this threshold.

On July 30, the SBA announced that it would update its website to make it more helpful to small businesses and manufacturers.

The update offers a streamlined online lending process for businesses that "simplifies how lenders originate and process SBA-backed loans, helping them deliver capital to Main Street businesses faster and with greater consistency and security," the SBA said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 13:25

US SPR Falls Below 300 Million Operational Limit As Oil Drain Unexpectedly Surges To 6.1MM Barrels, Most In 2 Months

As negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz go nowhere, oil prices continue to slide lower on some naive hope that a resolution to the conflict will magically emerge. Meanwhile, both commercial and strategic stocks continue to be drained at a historic pace, and one day virtually every tank bottom will be hit, sparking a historic surge in commodity prices as the market realizes that physical always wins the war with paper oil. 

That day just got closer today when the US reported that crude oil stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since early 1983, as global inventories are under pressure due to the Iran war.

The SPR fell by 6.1 million barrels to 298.7 million barrels last week, according to data released by the Department of Energy on Monday. The reserve is at its lowest level since January 1983.

The 6.1 million drain was a big jump in the SPR's recent moderating trend which saw the previous week only 2.8 million barrels exit the strategic reserve. Instead, the outsized outflow which was the biggest in almost 2 months suggests that US reserves are once again working overtime to prevent the oil price frrom spiking.

Yet as we have repeatedly explained, it is only a matter of time before the SPR can no longer be used to plug the gap so to speak. That's because the oil industry has generally accepted that the operational minimum for oil in the SPR, a point at which it would be more difficult to pump out the oil, is somewhere between 250 million and 300 million barrels. Meanwhile, sizing studies done on the SPR in the 1970s recommended an inventory minimum of 250 million barrels. 

In other words, the US is already if not at the operational minimum, it will certainly hit it in a few weeks, should the weekly drain persist at this rate. 

The rapid drain of the SPR explains why, according to unconfirmed reports, Iran has "completely ruled out any future negotiations with the Trump administration," declaring it will wait out Donald Trump's term until January 20, 2029, per Iranian outlets and Ghalibaf advisor's post.

"Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends," said Majid Shakeri, advisor to Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf.

He posted: "The path to victory is neither fighting nor a deal — it is managing the process of neither war nor peace, up to the point of victory. Publicly confirming negotiations with the U.S. is sheer folly. The winning approach is denial, ambiguity, and strategic patience."

The US release is part of a coordinated action by countries in the International Energy Agency to support the global oil market with 400 million barrels, although the US has been by far the most aggressive lender of its strategic reserves. 

The drain began after Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels in March to help address the oil supply disruption triggered by Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 12:55

Race To Reopen Hormuz Intensifies As Global Supply Chain Stress Remains At COVID Levels

The latest Bloomberg data show that shipping transits through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely disrupted Monday morning, even as Iran and Oman reportedly moved closer to a deal.

Brent crude futures traded near $85 a barrel as markets priced in the possibility that a deal to reopen the maritime chokepoint could be imminent. Yet global supply-chain stress remains near its highest level since the pandemic, and any normalization could take months, even if shipping traffic resumes.

UBS senior international economist Pierre Lafourcade highlighted the bank's proprietary Global Supply Chain Stress Index, which showed that although pressures eased modestly in July from their highest level since the pandemic, disruptions stemming from the Hormuz chokepoint continue to strain global shipping networks.

The median reading of the bank's 23-component Global Supply Chain Stress Index fell .4 standard deviation from June but remained .9 standard deviation above its pre-Iran conflict level. The average reading declined .3 standard deviation from June while remaining 1.35 standard deviations above February, or pre-US-Iran war, levels.

Lafourcade adds more color here: 

Marginal relief for supply chains relative to the June peak 

With the July data now complete, our Global Supply Chain Stress Index is showing a modest easing in pressure from the June reading, which marked the highest level of stress since the pandemic. Figure 1 below shows the latest reading.

The median of the 23 component series (blue line) now stands at 1.26 standard deviations, 0.9 sd units higher than prior to the Iran conflict but 0.4 units off the June reading. In average terms (red line), the indicator is up 1.35 sd units relative to February, but down 0.3 sd units relative to June, which appears to be the high watermark. Markets are optimistic about some form of imminent resolution, as reflected in the ~20$/b drop in Brent since the July 23 peak, but stress in supply chains is likely to linger on far beyond any implemented accord.

Divergence across components is increasing

The indicator is constructed as the cross-sectional average of z-scored series—a firstorder approximation to the data's first principal component. Figure 2 overleaf shows the contributions over the past five months. 

The indicator most directly capturing the supply shock nature of the Hormuz bottleneck is our measure of seaborne oil and gas flows (shown on the right of the figure, with the sign flipped to indicate rising stress). All other components reflect the shock more indirectly. Oil and gas shipping volumes in the Asia region—the polygon depicted in Figure 3—have retraced about half of the drop since the Strait closure (Figure 4). 

Meanwhile, the global volume of other cargo shipping remained roughly the same. Delivery times improved in Asia ex China but worsened in the US. The greatest relief is coming from lower air-freight costs in July, while shipping costs instead ratcheted up again across all major reporters (Baltic, Harper Petersen, Drewry, and Freightos).

The longer disruptions persist through the Hormuz chokepoint, the greater the knock-on effects across global supply chains, from higher energy and freight costs to depleted inventories, longer delivery times, and renewed inflationary pressure, are all ongoing concerns. 

Professional subscribers can read more on Hormuz, maritime chokepoints, and energy markets here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 12:40



 

 

Part II of my discussion with Vanguard’s Joe Davis and Rebecca Choo Quan about why we all make so many investing mistakes:

Breaking the Biggest Wealth-Destroying Habits
Knowing what not to do is only half the battle—the other half is actually avoiding those missteps. In part two of our conversation, Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management gets practical: how to safeguard your portfolio against panic, minimize regret when making high-stakes decisions and think about wealth in terms of decades, not days.

Here is part I of our conversation.

 

 

See also:
Wall Street Journal

Apple Podcasts

Spotify

YouTube

 

Previously:
Vanguard: The Costliest Mistakes Even Experienced Investors Make (July 23, 2026)

How Not to Invest (full archive)

Vanguard Group (full archive)

 

The post Vanguard: Breaking the Biggest Wealth-Destroying Habits appeared first on The Big Picture.

Game Over? GameStop CEO May Pull $56 Billion eBay Bid

Anyone who took GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen's bid for eBay seriously should have reconsidered after his CNBC interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin in early May.

When Sorkin pressed him on the basic math, Cohen failed to clearly explain how GameStop could finance the $56 billion deal or make the proposed cash-and-stock structure work. The interview raised more questions than it answered and pointed to the inevitable conclusion: the deal was never likely to happen from the start.

Here's the most contentious part of Ryan Cohen's CNBC Squawk Box interview about the GameStop-EBAY acquisition.

This is a HEATED back and forth, uncommon for financial news. $GME

Sorkin, at one point is in disbelief at RC's repetitive answering to his question. pic.twitter.com/MWAbYWStlp

— Reese Politics (@ReesePolitics) May 4, 2026

Fast-forward to Monday morning, when a new Bloomberg report citing people familiar with the matter said Cohen is considering withdrawing the $56 billion bid for the online marketplace.

However, Cohen is not giving up on a potential partnership with eBay. He is reportedly considering proposing a partnership or joint venture that would allow eBay to utilize GameStop's roughly 1,600 US stores to expand in higher-margin categories such as trading cards and collectibles.

GME shares have tumbled 28% since Cohen first offered to buy eBay in May. The $125 per share proposal consisted of 50% cash and 50% GameStop common stock.

eBay shares closed Friday near $112 per share, commanding a market value of $49.8 billion. Including debt, eBay is valued at almost $54 billion. GameStop's market value stands at around $8.6 billion. 

Cohen continued building the eBay stake, and as of July 15, owned 9.75%, making him the second-largest shareholder, only to Vanguard Group. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that stake around 8.55%. 

Cohen will likely use GameStop's stake as leverage, though which path he ultimately pursues from here remains to be seen.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 12:00

If They Were Human, They'd Be Arrested. Experts Respond To Rogue AI Breaches

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times,

What if an artificial intelligence model is given a task and uses every conceivable resource at its disposal to complete it, even at the detriment of humanity itself?

That is what some are now fearing after an OpenAI model broke out of a testing sandbox and used zero-day exploits to hack into Hugging Face, an open-source community for AI and machine learning, to crack a problem it was instructed to solve.

“This is some of the clearest evidence yet that an AI model can run a complete cyberattack from start to finish without a human steering it,” Andrew Jones, co-founder and CPO of cybersecurity firm Adaptive Security, told The Epoch Times.

OpenAI, developer of the popular large language model-powered ChatGPT chatbot, acknowledged the security breach on July 21, stating that two of its advanced models escaped a restricted testing environment and broke into Hugging Face’s software infrastructure.

“After investigating, we now know that this particular incident was driven by a combination of OpenAI models—including GPT‑5.6 Sol and an even more capable pre-release model, all with reduced cyber refusals for evaluation purposes—while being internally tested on a benchmark of cyber capabilities,” OpenAI stated at the time.

Some analysts referred to the incident as an example of AI “going rogue,” “scheming,” or pursuing goals that were at odds with its human testers.

However, multiple AI and cybersecurity experts interviewed by The Epoch Times called this depiction misleading, arguing that the models were pursuing OpenAI’s stated objectives within a testing sandbox where the company had relaxed some of its usual safety constraints.

“‘Scheming’ implies the model wanted something other than what we asked for. It didn’t. Every step was in service of the goal we set,” AI expert Anik Devaughn told The Epoch Times.

Devaughn, who has worked in the industry for years and founded AI firms Wired to Create and Karo, said the Hugging Face breach is more concerning than AI “scheming.”

An illustration of Hugging Face AI in Paris on June 2, 2026. Two advanced OpenAI models recently escaped a restricted testing environment and breached Hugging Face's software infrastructure, raising widespread cybersecurity concerns. Riccardo Milani/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

“A machine with hidden motives is a problem you can look for. A machine with no motives at all, executing your instructions past the point you stopped imagining, is a problem you have to engineer against,” he said.

One expert called it a “canary in the coal mine” situation.

“If this was a human black hat hacker doing it, there would be arrests and litigation, and you name it. It‘d be illegal. It’d be a cybercrime,” Nicholas Nadeau, founder of Onix AI, told The Epoch Times.

“This was a full-on agentic automated breach by an entity, and so we start to ask the questions of who’s responsible. Is it OpenAI? Does the agent, the AI, have a certain level of responsibility? Do the researchers?

“We don’t even have rules, regulations, laws, or even a thought process or framework around defining what responsibility means.”

Relaxed Testing Environment

OpenAI said it was evaluating its models in a sandbox it calls ExploitGym, which has relaxed security constraints for testing.

“We estimate maximal cyber capabilities by running this evaluation without production classifiers used to prevent models from pursuing high-risk cyber activity,” the firm said, describing the relaxed safety protocols that the model exploited.

The firm asked the models to “pursue advanced exploitation using complex attack paths” to determine their cyber capabilities, but said the environment was “highly isolated” and had internet access limited to the models’ ability to “install packages through an internally hosted third-party software.”

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman talks to reporters after meeting with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) in Washington on June 3, 2026. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

When the models were set to work, they found and chained multiple security exploits in both OpenAI’s research environment and Hugging Face’s production infrastructure to locate the test’s solutions within the latter firm’s databases.

Juan Pedro Márquez, a cloud solution architect specializing in AI and agents at Microsoft’s Europe, Middle East, and Africa division, said the “unsettling part” of the incident wasn’t the breach itself, but how the model achieved that task.

“OpenAI lowered its safety refusals for a benchmark test, and the model reasoned that Hugging Face’s infrastructure probably held the answer key, broke out of its sandbox, found a real zero-day, and used it. Nobody told it to,” Márquez said.

Aimee Simpson, director of product marketing at cybersecurity company Huntress, also cast doubt on the narrative that the models were scheming when they broke out of OpenAI’s testing environment.

“It’s not like the system itself was malicious,” she told The Epoch Times.

“The developers still had the objective of acquiring that information; they just didn’t think it would be able to bypass the limits of its test,” she added, describing the path the model chose as “highly creative and extremely unusual.”

Thomas Wolf, Hugging Face co-founder and CSO, and Rachel Metz speak onstage during the HumanX AI Conference 2025 in Las Vegas on March 11, 2025. Big Event Media/Getty Images for HumanX Conference

Models Pursued OpenAI’s Objectives

The models were laser-focused on finding the test solutions, “going to extreme lengths to achieve a rather narrow testing goal,” OpenAI said.

While in ExploitGym’s sandbox testing environment, the models found and chained multiple “zero-day” exploits to break into the internet, “in pursuit of solving the evaluation problem,” according to OpenAI.

A zero-day exploit is a cyberattack that uses a previously unknown security flaw in software or hardware. The name comes from the fact that the software creators have had zero days to fix the problem, meaning no official patch or defense exists yet.

Once the models had access to the wider web, they used additional zero-day exploits to break into Hugging Face.

In Hugging Face’s announcement of the attack, the firm said the AI models executed “many thousands” of discrete actions across a large swatch of “short-lived sandboxes” to hack into the community’s infrastructure.

“This matches the ‘agentic attacker’ scenario the industry has been forecasting,” Hugging Face said.

In an update on the incident posted on July 28, OpenAI said that no planned release models were involved in the attack, and that it had since “deactivated, encrypted, and restricted” the implicated pre-release model from research access.

A phone displays the ChatGPT app in this April 1, 2025, photo illustration. Hugging Face said the OpenAI models executed “many thousands” of discrete actions across a large swatch of “short-lived sandboxes” to hack into its infrastructure. Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times

After reviewing the intrusion event and “broader activity from our models,” OpenAI said it has been finding additional cases in which “models identified and used publicly exposed credentials at the account-level on other publicly available services.”

“We’ll continue to notify service owners directly, and have not seen evidence of broader impact to these providers or other accounts on their services,” it added.

Model Wasn’t ‘Malicious’: Experts

While there have been past instances of models concealing their intentions to circumvent laboratory testing restrictions, the Hugging Face incident was significant because it involved a breach of an outside organization, according to cybersecurity and IT expert George Rees.

“The biggest red flag is not that an AI became malicious, but that it found a path from a controlled test into someone else’s live infrastructure,” Rees, who is the senior security consultant at Secarma, told The Epoch Times.

“Behavioral safeguards can’t replace technical containment, because an AI agent only needs one overlooked permission or escape route to turn an evaluation failure into a real security incident.”

Cybersecurity firm DigiCert recently found that 78 percent of organizations have already experienced an AI-related security incident or vulnerability breach.

“In many cases, these are early warning signs that AI is expanding the attack surface faster than security practices are evolving,” DigiCert CTO Jason Sabin told The Epoch Times.

“This means AI is not just another kind of program operating on the network; it is an active participant capable of accessing data, making decisions, calling upon tools, and interacting with other systems.

“This affects how security is structured, since organizations must identify who is accessing their systems and decide whether the AI can be trusted.”

A man uses AI software on a laptop in central London on July 2, 2025. In early August, the UK's AI Safety and Security Institute released a report describing a similar cybersecurity incident involving OpenAI and Anthropic AI models. Justin Tallis/AFP via Getty Images

In early August, the UK’s AI Safety and Security Institute released a report describing a similar incident with OpenAI and Anthropic AI models.

The agents were tasked with solving a cybersecurity challenge more than 100 times across multiple models.

“Our investigation found that in 10 of those runs, an AI agent took autonomous, unsanctioned action on the live internet, targeting real people and organisations. In total, we catalogued 19 such actions. Almost all of this behaviour (17 actions) came from a single model, Anthropic’s Mythos 5, with 2 actions involving OpenAI’s GPT-5.6-Sol,” the report stated.

Less than a week earlier, Anthropic announced that its Claude chatbot had accessed the internet in three separate instances during evaluations in a testing sandbox.

While Anthropic had intended for Claude to operate in a simulated environment with no access to the internet, a “misunderstanding between us and our evaluation partner” led to Claude gaining access to the internet.

Meta said last week that one of its AI models breached another company during a cybersecurity test, making it the third major AI hacking event.

The model was able to breach the other company by gaining access to the internet during the test, according to Meta.

Implications for Cybersecurity

The incident demands swift action to prevent wider-scale security breaches, AI and cybersecurity experts told The Epoch Times.

One option is to “bring all the smartest people together in this industry and make some ground rules, best practices” that would become “basic rules of the road that everyone is supposed to abide by, just to have some alignment about how things can be done,” Nadeau said, suggesting that this could be done in the private sector without necessarily involving Congress.

U.S. President Donald Trump (Top 2ndL) sits with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during a working lunch at the G7 summit in Evian, France, on June 17, 2026. Julia Demaree Nikhinson/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

However, others suggest that without direct government regulation, companies controlling AI models capable of these breaches will not voluntarily institute the necessary safety protocols to prevent this from happening again.

“It’s clear that government regulation is needed here,” former National Security Agency hacker and veteran security expert Jake Williams told The Epoch Times.

“OpenAI has proven that despite the many public warnings about the dangers of rogue agents—many from OpenAI itself—it is unwilling to do what is necessary to prevent its agents from causing harm to others.

“I’m personally anti-regulation as a rule, but when market forces clearly are insufficient to compel responsible behavior, the government must step in.”

Frank Teruel, COO of Arkose Labs and a veteran cybersecurity and digital identity expert, said the Hugging Face breach is a “preview of what every enterprise will face in production.”

Since the model was “not stolen or hijacked,” and was “aggressively doing its job,” Teruel recommends that containment and giving AI agents “least-privilege access” are now as important as firewalls themselves.

Businesses will likely need to address the problem head-on.

A smartphone displays the icons of some of the main artificial intelligence based apps, including Meta AI, Grok, Gemini, Perplexity, DeepSeek, and ChatGPT, in Saint-Mande, France, on July 15, 2026. Martin Lelievre/AFP via Getty Images

“For enterprises, the fix isn’t ‘stop using agents’—it’s building containment that assumes the agent will try to leave, not hoping it won’t,” Márquez said.

Sabin said his biggest concern is that highly capable AI is now operating at a “speed and scale that far exceeds human response times.”

“An AI agent can discover vulnerabilities, make decisions, and interact with multiple systems in seconds. That fundamentally changes how defenders need to think about security,” he said.

Nadeau compared the incident to philosopher Nick Bostrom’s 2003 paperclip maximizer thought experiment.

In that scenario, researchers give a hypothetical super-intelligent AI one single task: to make as many paperclips as possible. The AI begins scouring the earth for resources, quickly making enormous amounts of paperclips.

Once humans decide to stop the AI, the machine believes humanity will prevent it from reaching its goal, so it destroys humans to achieve the task humans gave it.

The AI isn’t malicious in an anthropomorphic way, or in the sense that it is acting with autonomous goals to intentionally deceive humans, but is rather interpreting the task its human programmers gave it in the most extreme way possible.

A visitor interacts with a dog-like robot from Boston Dynamics at the U.S. pavilion during the AI for Good Global Summit in Geneva on July 7, 2026. Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

The Hugging Face breach is “sort of the same type of thing in a less dystopian way, where it was told to win a benchmark, and it did everything in its power, including [exploiting] zero-day vulnerabilities and escalation,” Nadeau said.

Imagine an example where the Pentagon is using AI for “war games” in which soldiers simulate battle scenarios, and the model similarly breaks out of its testing sandbox to affect the real world.

“[What if] one of the scenarios was to take down a hydro dam or something like that, and it mistook the war game for, ‘I’m going to do it and escape containment and just go for it.’ We’ve already seen how North America’s utility grid and infrastructure is not the most cyber secure,” Nadeau said.

He compared the safeguards on AI to a firearm’s trigger safety.

“How do you know the safety is on when at a certain point, the best way [for the AI] to get the best data is to use real life?“ he said, ”That gets scary really fast.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 11:40

IRS To Propose Retirement Regulations Impacting Millions Of Taxpayers

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of the Treasury plan to propose regulations for a federal retirement savings incentive program, including eligibility criteria and income thresholds for qualifying for such benefits.

IRS Chief Executive Officer Frank J. Bisignano (L) speaks as President Donald Trump looks on prior to signing a presidential proclamation honoring the 90th anniversary of the Social Security Act in the Oval Office on Aug. 14, 2025. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Aimed at low- and moderate-income taxpayers, the IRS Saver's Match is a new federal program that seeks to promote retirement savings. In general, Saver's Match will replace the existing Saver's Credit program for taxable years beginning in 2027.

Under the program, the government will provide eligible taxpayers up to 50 percent of the first $2,000 in retirement savings contributions made to an employer-sponsored retirement plan or IRA.

The amount caps at $1,000 annually and will be paid to eligible individuals beginning in 2028 based on the retirement contributions they made in the 2027 tax year, the IRS said in an Aug. 7 statement.

In a notice issued on Friday, the IRS and the Treasury described regulations that they expect to be in the forthcoming proposed rules.

Four types of retirement savings contributions would qualify for Saver's Match: contributions to a Roth or traditional IRA; contributions made to a section 501(c)(18) plan; certain voluntary, after-tax employee contributions to a qualified retirement plan; and elective deferrals, such as those made to a section 401(k) plan.

"Millions of low- and moderate-income Americans will have the opportunity to strengthen their retirement savings through the Saver's Match program," IRS Chief Executive Officer Frank J. Bisignano said in the statement.

"The Saver's Match makes saving easier and more rewarding by providing a direct federal contribution to an eligible taxpayer's retirement account. The notice is an important first step in implementing President [Donald] Trump's Executive Order with respect to the Saver's Match program," Bisignano said.

Bisignano was referring to the "Promoting Retirement-Savings Access for American Workers by Establishing TrumpIRA.gov" executive order signed by Trump on April 30.

In the order, Trump said that tens of millions of Americans lack access to employer-sponsored retirement plans, with small-business workers, independent contractors, the self-employed, and part-time workers facing "unnecessary barriers to saving for retirement."

The administration intends to ensure these people can obtain up to $1,000 in matching savings they make, Trump wrote, while calling for increased public awareness of the Saver's Match program.

The order directed the Treasury Secretary to establish the TrumpIRA.gov website by Jan. 1, 2027, to provide individuals with information on low-cost, high-quality IRAs.

In its latest statement, the IRS said that the agency and the Treasury anticipate TrumpIRA.gov will list financial institutions that offer IRAs and accept Saver's Match contributions.

According to the TrumpIRA.gov website, roughly 41 million American workers aged 18-65 lack access to employer-provided retirement plans.

"A 25-year-old worker who saves about $165 per month and qualifies for a $1,000 annual Saver's Match could retire with roughly $465,000 at age 65," the website said.

Out of the $465,000, almost $155,000 is expected to come directly from the Saver's Match contributions. The calculations assume an annual return of 6 percent.

Income Thresholds, Saver's Credit

To qualify for the Saver's Match, an individual must be at least 18 years old during the taxable year, according to the IRS and Treasury notice.

For 2027, single filers with a modified adjusted gross income of $35,500 or more do not qualify for the Saver's Match. The same limit applies to married people who file separately.

For married couples who file jointly, the threshold is $71,000, and for the household head, the maximum limit is $53,250.

For taxable years after 2027, these thresholds will be adjusted based on inflation. The Saver's Match claim must be made through a separate Form 8880-A.

While Saver's Match will replace the existing Saver's Credit program, for certain contributions made to Achieving a Better Life Experience accounts, Saver's Credit will continue to be available.

Unlike Saver's Match, which is an amount directly paid to a person's retirement account, Saver's Credit offers a nonrefundable tax credit as an incentive.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 11:00

Meta Releases Muse Glimmer, A 30B Model That Runs On A Single Consumer GPU

Meta released Muse Glimmer on Monday, a 30-billion-parameter model built for agent work that fits on a laptop. The company published the model's weights - the trained numbers that make up the model itself, meaning anyone can download it and run it on their own machine - on the model repository Hugging Face, under an Apache 2.0 license that is genuinely permissive, without the usage restrictions Meta attached to its Llama releases.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg attends the annual Allen and Co. Sun Valley Media and Technology Conference at the Sun Valley Resort in Sun Valley, Idaho, U.S., July 9, 2026. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

The model is aimed at a specific and increasingly crowded target: AI that runs on your own hardware instead of somebody else's cloud. Google has Gemma, Alibaba has Qwen, Mistral and DeepSeek both ship small open models. Meta is arriving late to a category it arguably created and then abandoned.

What It Is

Glimmer was built from Muse Spark, Meta's frontier model, using a technique called distillation: you train the small model on the big model's output until it learns to imitate what the larger system already knows. 

Then there's the problem of making it fit. A 30-billion-parameter model at full precision needs more than 55GB of memory, which no consumer graphics card has. Meta compressed the numbers that make up the model down to roughly a quarter of their usual precision, shrinking it to under 20GB - small enough to leave room for everything else the model needs running alongside it inside a 24GB or 32GB card. The company says the compression costs little or nothing on the tasks that matter.

Speed comes from a second trick, called speculative decoding. Models normally write one word at a time, each one waiting on the last, which is why long answers feel slow. Meta pairs Glimmer with a small, fast companion model that predicts whole chunks of text, then has the real model check the guesses all at once and keep whatever it got right. It works because checking an answer is much faster than producing one. Meta reports the result is 3.1x faster on an RTX 5090, 1.8x on an M5 Max, and 1.5x on an M4 Max.

Meta has positioned Glimmer against Google's Gemma4-31B and Alibaba's Qwen3.6-27B, and claims strong results on tests that measure whether a model can complete a multi-step job start to finish - fixing real bugs in real codebases, calling outside tools, recovering when something fails. Those are the company's own numbers from the company's own testing, which is worth remembering until outsiders get their hands on it. As of Monday, they can.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says a version of Spark itself will follow in the coming weeks, with larger models after. 

Models you can download are cheaper to run and easier to customize than models you rent, and the strongest downloadable ones increasingly come out of China - DeepSeek, Alibaba, Moonshot. Zuckerberg's argument is that American labs are hobbled by training-data restrictions their foreign rivals don't face, and that blocking foreign models is the wrong answer to that.

"US policy must reduce this additional friction if we want American open source models to lead over time," he wrote.

He also wants distillation protected as a matter of policy - "you can learn from anything you can observe." Glimmer is a distilled model, released the same morning, so the principle has a beneficiary.

Meanwhile

The model came wrapped in a 6,500-word essay titled "The Future is for Everyone," arguing that advanced AI should be handed to individuals rather than concentrated in a few institutions, and that "the notion AI is so dangerous that the only safe path is an extreme concentration of power seems inherently problematic."

Meta also announced a $1 billion fund for communities hosting its data centers, a response to the local opposition that has become one of the larger obstacles to building AI infrastructure. The essay cites Richland Parish, Louisiana, where teachers received a $50,000 bonus out of the tax revenue Meta's construction generated.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 10:40

NORAD Jets Intercept 2 Planes Over Restricted Airspace Near Trump's Golf Club

Authored by Chase Smith via The Epoch Times,

North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) F-16 fighter jets intercepted two general aviation aircraft that flew into restricted airspace over Bedminster, New Jersey, on Aug. 9, the command said.

President Donald Trump was at his golf club in Bedminster for the weekend, arriving the evening of Aug. 7 and departing for Washington on Aug. 9, according to his public schedule. The club hosted the LIV Golf New York tournament from Aug. 6 to Aug. 9.

Both aircraft were escorted out of the area safely, according to a statement from the Continental U.S. NORAD Region at Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida, which runs the mission. NORAD said in a post on X that it had intercepted multiple aircraft, while First Air Force put the number at two.

The restrictions had been announced days earlier. On Aug. 6, NORAD said it would enforce multiple VIP temporary flight restriction areas over New Jersey established by the Federal Aviation Administration for the weekend.

Such restrictions close off a defined block of airspace for a set period and are published in advance through notices to airmen, which pilots are required to check before every flight. The FAA issues them for presidential movements and other events, and NORAD enforces them.

In the Aug. 6 announcement, the command said aircraft violating the restrictions would be met with whatever action was needed to gain compliance, and it urged pilots to avoid that outcome.

NORAD also said the public may see U.S. Army ground-based air defense equipment in the same region. Those systems operate under NORAD authorities and work alongside its aircraft as part of what it described as a layered defense network of radars, satellites, and fighter jets.

The command tied the posture to Operation Noble Eagle, the name it gives to all of its aerospace warning, control, and defense missions in North America. NORAD describes the operation as deterring, detecting, and defeating potential threats to U.S. and Canadian airspace around the clock.

NORAD used the opportunity to remind pilots that if they are intercepted, they should immediately tune to 121.5 or 243.0 and reverse course until given further instructions on one of those frequencies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 10:25

Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Retail Sales

Most traders may be out on the beach soaking up the mid-summer sun, but the relentless market and geopolitical newsflow continues for another week.

Following Friday's payrolls report, which was far more dovish than hawkish at face value, attention this week will be firmly on July US CPI (Wednesday), which could go a long way towards further tipping the balance for September FOMC pricing. Futures pricing fell by around 10 percentage points immediately after the release on Friday, leaving the implied probability at 44%. Then we get US PPI (Thursday), which is key for the components that feed directly into core PCE. Other US highlights include retail sales and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (both Friday). Elsewhere, attention will focus on the RBA policy decision (tomorrow), the Norges Bank meeting and UK Q2 GDP report (Thursday), and inflation releases across Asia and Europe. Corporate earnings are quieter than in recent weeks but reports from Tencent, BYD, Cisco, Applied Materials and CoreWeave will still attract attention.

Before we go into the week ahead in more detail the situation in Iran remains finely balanced with Iran’s latest political and security moves suggesting that Tehran is trying to balance a tougher domestic posture with a continued search for a diplomatic off-ramp. The appointment of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaee to head the Supreme National Security Council reinforces hard-line influence at the centre of decision-making, even as Iranian officials insist they are close to an agreement with Oman on a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has described the talks as being in their final stages, but Tehran has stressed that any technical agreement on shipping routes would not by itself lead to a full reopening of the waterway. Reuters and other major outlets report that Iran continues to tie any lasting Hormuz arrangement to wider demands on the US, including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage and security guarantees. Oman has characterised the negotiations as constructive, while Washington has signalled a willingness to continue talks despite periodic tensions. Brent is up around +0.8% this morning but US and European equity futures are fairly flat.

This all follows last Friday’s US payrolls report certainly offering a mixed assessment of labor market conditions. Headline payrolls unexpectedly fell by -23k, private payroll growth slowed to just +30k, and the previous two months were revised down by a cumulative -103k. However, much of the weakness was concentrated in two sectors - leisure and hospitality (-40k) and local government education (-50k), while goods-producing employment and construction both posted their strongest gains in several months. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, its lowest level since early 2025. DB economists view the report as consistent with a broadly stable labor market rather than a sharp deterioration, noting that demographic factors continue to weigh on participation.

The softer payrolls data has reduced the urgency for further Fed tightening in the near term, but with labor market slack only gradually increasing, it's over to Wednesday's US CPI. 

On this big number, DB's economists expect headline CPI to rise by +0.15% mom after June’s -0.42% decline, while core CPI is forecast at +0.26% mom following an unchanged reading in June. Lower gasoline prices should keep headline inflation softer than core, and if forecasts are realized both headline and core annual inflation rates would edge down by around one-tenth to 3.45% and 2.51% respectively. Markets will also be watching for evidence of payback from several unusual price moves in June, particularly across parts of core goods and services.

Attention will then turn to July PPI on Thursday. Economists expect headline producer prices to rise by +0.22% mom, with core PPI at +0.3% mom. Particular focus will fall on categories that feed into core PCE inflation, including healthcare services, airfares and portfolio management. DB strategist are currently tracking +0.22% in July and 3.3% YoY.

Friday’s US data will offer the first major read on Q3 activity. Economists expect retail sales to increase by +0.1% mom in July, a dip from the 0.2% increase in June, as lower fuel prices weigh on the headline figure relative to underlying spending measures. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is expected to ease to 54.7 in August from 55.2 previously.

Fed speakers are relatively sparse, although comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Richmond Fed President Barkin may attract attention following the inflation data.

Outside the US, there are a couple of G10 central banks in focus this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision tomorrow, with our economists (and the market) expecting rates to remain unchanged at 4.35%. Norges Bank follows on Thursday with a 25% probability of a hike priced in.

In Europe, the key release will be the UK’s Q2 GDP report on Thursday. Our economists expect June GDP to contract by -0.1% mom, leaving quarterly growth at +0.4% qoq, although risks are seen as tilted to the downside. Elsewhere, Norway and Denmark both publish July CPI figures today.

On the corporate side, the earnings season is becoming less intensive, with 400 out of the S&P 500 having now reported, but several notable companies remain on the calendar.

In the US, investors will focus on results from Cisco, Applied Materials and CoreWeave, while in China attention will fall on Tencent and BYD.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday August 10

• Data: Japan June BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, July bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, Denmark July CPI, Norway July CPI, Germany wholesale price index
• Central banks: BoJ summary of opinions from the July MPM
• Earnings: Ferguson Enterprises, Alcon, AST SpaceMobile, USA Rare Earth

Tuesday August 11

• Data: US July NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, Italy June trade balance
• Central banks: RBA decision
• Earnings: Lumentum, CoreWeave, Constellation Software, Venture Global, Super Micro Computer
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday August 12

• Data: US July CPI, Japan July M2, M3, machine tool orders, Germany June current account balance, Canada June building permits
• Earnings: Tencent, Cisco, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Coherent, Nebius, Cerebras, Vestas
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($42bn)

Thursday August 13

• Data: US July PPI, initial jobless claims, UK Q2 GDP, July RICS house price balance, EU industrial production, Japan July PPI
• Central banks: Norges bank decision, Fed’s Hammack and Barkin speak
• Earnings: Applied Materials, RWE, Lenovo, Adyen, Pandora
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($25bn)

Friday August 14

• Data: US July retail sales, August University of Michigan survey, June business inventories, China Q2 BoP current account balance, Eurozone June trade balance, Canada June manufacturing sales
• Earnings: BYD

* * * 

Focusing on just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the retail sales report on Friday. There are a few speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Presidents Hammack and Barkin.

Monday, August 10 

• There are no major data releases scheduled.
• 03:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will appear on Yahoo Finance. Moderated Q&A is expected. At the July FOMC meeting, President Hammack dissented from the Committee’s decision to hold the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged, preferring a 25bp hike. In her dissent statement on July 31, she said that “given the stability of the labor market, with the unemployment rate near my estimate of maximum employment, I view high inflation as the more pressing problem.” She added that a “higher federal funds rate would help restrain economic activity and reduce inflationary pressures” because she does “not see the current policy stance as appropriately restrictive.”

Tuesday, August 11 

• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, July (GS -1.0%, consensus -0.9%, last -2.4%)

 Wednesday, August 12 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), July (GS +0.05%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.4%); Core CPI (MoM), July (GS +0.19%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); CPI (YoY), July (GS +3.35%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.5%); Core CPI (YoY), July (GS +2.47%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.6%): We estimate a 0.19% increase in July core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would lower the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.5% on a rounded basis. We expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.5% decline in the car insurance category. We forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.23% increase in the OER category and a 0.16% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trends. We expect mixed travels services inflation (airfares: +2%, hotels: -1%), reflecting the signals from alternative price data. We expect slight upward pressure on the communications category from recently announced price increases for consumer electronics worth 1-2bp on core CPI inflation. We estimate a 0.05% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food prices (+0.2%) but lower energy prices (-2.0%)—which would lower the year-over-year rate to +3.35% from +3.53%. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.26% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in July. We expect a sharp increase in the portfolio management component—reflecting the increase in equity prices in Q2, which flow through to the component with a lag—to contribute to the larger increase in core PCE prices than the core CPI.

Thursday, August 13 

• 08:15 AM Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will speak at the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce’s Government Affairs Breakfast series in Kettering, Ohio. Moderated Q&A is expected.
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.3%); PPI ex-food and energy, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 8 (GS 200k, consensus 202k, last 199k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 1 (consensus 1,800k, last 1,801k)
• 08:40 AM Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Chamber of Commerce in Greenville, South Carolina. Speech text and audience Q&A are expected. On August 7, after the release of the July employment report, President Barkin noted that the employment data were “very consistent with how I’ve been seeing the labor market—which is it’s not loose, it’s not tight, it’s sort of in a weak balance.”

Friday, August 14 

• 08:30 AM Retail sales, July (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto, July (GS flat, consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, July (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Core retail sales, July (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.2% in July (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA). Our forecast in part reflects a 0.2pp drag from payback for an early Amazon Prime Day, which is normally conducted in July but was held in June this year and likely boosted last month’s report. We estimate nominal headline retail sales declined 0.1%, reflecting lower gasoline prices and auto sales.
• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, August preliminary (GS 55.0, consensus 54.6, last 55.2): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, August preliminary (GS 3.3%, consensus 3.3%, last 3.3%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 10:15

Give Them An Inch...

By Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank

Talks between Iran and Oman on the reopening of Hormuz are reportedly inching ahead, as Iran continues to give the US the silent treatment. Negotiators said that a deal to establish a safe shipping route was close, but Iran may now be exploring just how much it can extract from the US in return.

Last week, Iran had already said that any deal with Oman would be contingent on the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. On Friday, a US official told Reuters that the administration agreed to this. The US blockade would end once a deal is announced that “restores commercial shipping without impediments.”

But give them an inch and they’ll take a mile. Tehran added new demands over the weekend, saying that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless the US meets “a number of requirements.” These demands largely seem to refer to the original memorandum of understanding. Iran’s additional demands include the US ending all hostilities and withdrawing its troops from the area. Iran also wants Washington to pay billions in war damages and lift sanctions on the country.

Or do the additional demands reflect division between Iranian camps, and varying levels of distrust of the US? The strait remains a key point of geopolitical leverage – at least until planned alternatives for oil exports are all fully operational.

Meanwhile, the US president appears to be divided on the war as well. The Wall Street Journal reported this weekend that Trump had been willing to walk away without any agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, claiming victory if the strait reopens. However, Iran’s additional demands may have torpedoed that plan.

Netanyahu rejecting the Board of Peace plan for Gaza is a further complicating factor. The Israeli prime minister indicated that he will not withdraw troops until Hamas fully disarms.

So, yesterday, Trump told Axios that he was “low-keying it,” waiting for the economic damage to build: “We are only semi-negotiating. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.” Yet, the longer this persists, the more economic damage could build in the US and other parts of the world as well.

Energy markets started the week off cautiously after all this. Brent futures are marginally higher, but traders seem reluctant to take big positions given all this on-again, off-again news. Equity markets seem to have shrugged off the weekend news flow entirely, perhaps partly aided by US economic data.

Following Friday’s employment report, the case for a Fed hike is weakening, but it is certainly not yet done for. The headline payrolls number disappointed, with a -23,000 jobs print and a 37,000 downward revision to the June estimate. In contrast, unemployment declined from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the underlying data indicate that this was due to a big fall in labour supply that outpaced the decline in household employment.

Our US strategist noted earlier that employment growth has been slowing for several months, and Friday’s report confirmed that downside risks to the labor market have not disappeared entirely since the three insurance cuts last year. This could strengthen the argument of the Fed’s doves. Yet, the employment report also allows the hawks to argue that the labor market is mostly suffering from supply constraints, even if they are a little less confident in their case than before.

In short, the labor market data may have removed some urgency, reducing the odds of a September hike. However, incoming inflation data remain key.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 09:45

Ukrainian Drones Launched 750-Miles Deep Into Central Russia Kill 13

Ukraine's military has conducted a rare, mass casualty attack deep into central Russia. Long-range drones reached Tatarstan, which lies some 1,200km (or about 750 miles) east of the Ukrainian border.

The strikes killed 13 people and wounded at least 75 in what's widely being called one of the most deadly single attacks launched on Russian territory by Ukraine throughout the war.

via Reuters

"According to the latest information, 13 people have been killed and 75 wounded as a result of the drone attack," on the city of Nizhnekamsk, the Tatarstan region's press service indicated Monday.

Nizhnekamsk is an important oil refining hub, and also has a major petrochemical plant, and there have been reports of thick smoke rising above an oil facility near the city. NBC notes that "Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck a Taneco oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, starting a fire."

According to more details in regional media:

Radmir Belyayev, the mayor of the industrial city of Nizhnekamsk, said drones targeted both civilian and industrial sites during the attack. Besides the more than a dozen fatalities, which included one child, regional authorities said more than 70 people sought medical attention.

Unverified reports said the Nizhnekamskneftekhim petrochemical plant, which produces synthetic rubber and plastics, was hit during the overnight attack. 

Hundreds of drones crossed Russia's skies overnight, with the military saying it shot down 456 Ukrainian drones fired overnight.

Ukraine's President Zelensky stated Sunday night, "We do deliver entirely justified responses, and every Russian strike will be met with our response. Russia’s war will be felt more and more at their own home — in Russia."

He added: "The only reason this is still continuing is Russia's unwillingness to end this war." Currently there appear to be no negotiations happening, even after the White House signaled it would seek to renew diplomatic efforts toward ending the war."

And Ukraine's General Staff has warned, "The Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue systematically implementing measures aimed at bringing the Russian Federation’s armed aggression to an end."

At this point, there are hundreds of drones sent on Russia each night, which Ukraine describes as retaliation for heavy Russian ballistic missile attacks on its cities.

BREAKING:

Ukrainian long-range drones have struck Russia’s 3rd-largest oil refinery

Tatneft’s TANECO refinery in Nizhnekamsk in the Tatarstan region has a refining capacity of 17 million tons of oil per year. Only Omsk (22 million) and Kirishi (20 million) have more. pic.twitter.com/Jt1h6KuVmv

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) August 10, 2026

In Ukraine overnight, at least five people were reported killed in a Russian artillery strike in a village in the northeastern Kharkiv region.

Additionally, while Ukraine's repeat large drone waves on central Russia and even the Moscow region have driven headlines, much less attention has been paid to the emerging and renewed Black Sea war. Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 09:30

Boeing Sells Flying-Taxi Venture To Rival Archer Aviation, Takes Near 20% Stake

Archer Aviation shares surged in premarket trading after The Wall Street Journal reported that Boeing had agreed to take a nearly 20% stake in the eVTOL startup as part of a deal that transfers control of its autonomous flying-taxi venture, Wisk Aero, to Archer.

Archer will acquire Wisk, air-traffic software provider SkyGrid, and drone manufacturer Insitu. The 737 maker will receive warrants, gain the right to nominate a director to Archer's board, and retain access to Wisk's autonomous-flight technology. The transaction is expected to close later this year.

Brian Yutko, Boeing's vice president of Commercial Airplanes product development, told CNBC that the deal "allows Wisk, SkyGrid and Insitu to accelerate capability development and time to market while ensuring Boeing capitalizes on its investments in these technologies over the past two decades through continued development in our core businesses."

For Boeing, the transaction marks another divestiture under CEO Kelly Ortberg as the planemaker focuses on strengthening its core commercial-aircraft and defense businesses. Boeing previously invested $450 million in Wisk and has spent more than a decade developing its autonomous electric-flight technology.

For Archer, the deal strengthens its position in developing eVTOLs and the networks needed to support them. Insitu also helps Archer expand its military portfolio.

Archer CEO Adam Goldstein told CNBC that the deal "is the next big step forward in becoming a diversified platform, rapidly growing our revenue base and bringing scale to our business."

Shares of Archer jumped 20% in premarket trading. As of Friday's close, the stock was down 25% year to date. Short interest represents 15% of the float, equivalent to about 95 million shares.

The deal provides further evidence of Ortberg's turnaround plan to return Boeing to profitability, suggesting that efforts to streamline the aerospace giant could lead to additional divestitures.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 09:00

Intel Selling $15 Billion In Stock To Fund AI Boom

With AI capital expenditures exploding to $1 trillion this year, the financing mix is beginning to shift from free cash flow and debt toward equity.

Among the megacap hyperscalers, Alphabet has been the most aggressive in tapping the equity market (read report), while Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta continue to rely primarily on cash flow, debt, leases, and structured financing.

Intel is set to join the broader AI infrastructure complex in tapping equity markets, announcing in a press release Monday morning that it plans a $15 billion underwritten public offering of common stock to bolster its balance sheet and help fund investments across AI compute, custom silicon, advanced packaging, external foundry services, and the emerging physical-AI economy.

More color:

Intel intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes, which may include, but are not limited to, capital expenditures and working capital. The offering is intended to further enable Intel to pursue the growth opportunities ahead while maintaining a strong balance sheet and its commitment to an investment-grade rating. 

Worth noting: An underwritten public offering is not the same as an ATM program that allows shares to be sold "from time to time." Today's announcement is merely a proposed offering, but the shares have not yet been priced or sold. Pricing and closing will follow, subject to market conditions.

Underwriters are expected to receive a 30-day option to purchase up to $2.25 billion of additional shares, potentially increasing the offering to $17.25 billion. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup are acting as joint bookrunners.

The proposed offering comes as Intel shares have risen more than 175% year to date through Friday's close. Shares slipped 3% on the news earlier Monday.

Next year, Goldman expects hyperscalers' capital expenditures to top $1.4 trillion.

Hyperscalers have a free-cash-flow problem...

"You are here" - only MSFT has positive free cash flow now pic.twitter.com/YqoHQYOIAb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 6, 2026

This suggests that AI companies will aggressively tap not only equity markets but also debt markets to fund this infrastructure buildout.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 08:45

Futures Erase Overnight Gains As Oil Hits One-Week High, Yen Slides

US equity futures start the new week barely higher, having erased almost all of their overnight gains, yet still trading at all time highs, led by Tech with small caps starting the week in the red. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are fractionally in the green as traders look to the next big data print from the US this week in the form of CPI and PPI updates, as bets on September rate hikes tumbled after Friday's jobs debacle; Nasdaq futures rise 0.1%. In premarket trading, both Mag7 and Semis are higher with weakness in Memory, Software, and South Korea despite the rise in KOSPI overnight. Cyclicals are outpacing Defensives, including participation from Energy / Cmdtys names. Europe's Stoxx 600 is coming off its best daily streak of gains since June and more money managers say that this European equities rally could be durable. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2% and the Kospi was flat, lagging a 6% surge for the small-cap Kosdaq as it benefits from a rotation out of memory stocks and leveraged ETFs. Overnight, JPMorgan raised its year-end S&P target to 8000 as the bank sees earnings delivering $365/shr this year and $420/shr in FY27, +15% YoY.  Bond yields are flat to +1bp as the yield curve twists flatter; USD trading higher following consecutive weekly declines. USDJPY rises 0.6% toward 159, surpassing last week’s intraday high and more than erasing the drop we saw on Friday after the soft US jobs report prompted a broad dollar selloff; about half of the post-intervention move has now been erased. Commodities are led higher by Energy with MidEast headlines driving direction; Brent trades at session highs, just under $85/bbl and the highest since Aug 3, as Iran and Oman are still short of a final deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while Iran ruled out direct talks with the US for now. Tehran promoted a hard-line ex-commander as its top security official. President Trump said the US was “semi-negotiating” with Iran. Israel has rejected a proposal by US-backed mediators for disarming Hamas. Houthis are targeting Saudi refineries after SA, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a new defense pact. Both Base and precious metals are mixed with silver the standout, rallying with the AI theme. There are no major econ releases today as the market preps for CPI and Retail Sales, our Scenario Analysis is included. With earnings season almost completed, we are seeing the SPX trend towards 15% rev growth, 50% EPS growth, and almost 17% margins. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher even as Apple falls 1.1% as Jefferies downgrades to underperform noting that the roadmap to a higher-priced iPhone looks challenging. Meta Platforms (META) climbs 2.6% after introducing a new AI model called Muse Glimmer that can run on a single computer, allowing users to download and customize the technology (Alphabet +0.8%, Tesla +0.4%, Nvidia +0.2%, Amazon +0.7%, Microsoft -0.09%).

• Aaon (AAON) climbs 8% after the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning company reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
• AbCellera (ABCL) climbs 22% after saying a clinical trial evaluating ABCL635 met the primary efficacy endpoints
• Barrick Mining’s US-listed shares (B) slip 4% after the company reached an agreement with Newmont Corp. on their Nevada joint venture, opening the way for Barrick to list its North American assets in New York.
• HP Enterprise (HPE) rises 6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the stock to overweight. Morgan Stanley is more favorable on the IT hardware industry overall due to heavy spending on AI-related infrastructure.
• MarineMax (HZO) shares are halted after Safe Harbor Marinas, a Blackstone portfolio company, agreed to acquire the company for or $53.00 per share in an all-cash deal.
• Monday.com (MNDY) falls 9% after the application software company posted second quarter results and providing guidance.
• National Energy Services Reunited Corp. (NESR) rises 10% after the company reported a 59% year-over-year increase in its revenue.
• Sionna Therapeutics (SION) tumbles 91% after the biopharmaceutical company said a proof-of-concept trial did not achieve key activity endpoint.
• Tenax Therapeutics (TENX) sinks 84% after the development stage biotechnology company said a trial failed to meet its primary endpoint.
• Varex Imaging (VREX) soars 48% as Teledyne Technologies agreed to buy the company for $18.90 per share.

In other corporate news, Berkshire Hathaway spent about $4.5 billion to buy back its own shares in 2Q and purchased nearly $20 billion of equities in the period. The stock buybacks provided shareholders with their largest quarterly payout since 2021. TSMC reported a 45% rise in its monthly sales, a sign of sustained demand for AI hardware in the face of market volatility. Apple has been testing memory chips from China’s CXMT, as the iPhone maker addresses a memory crunch during the AI boom, according to the WSJ. Paramount Skydance has agreed to sign contracts with major theater chains guaranteeing that it will release 30 movies a year in cinemas if it acquires Warner Bros. Discovery.

Stock futures are set for a modest extension of Friday’s gains, which saw US stocks close at all time highs, with a rate hike looking less likely to happen anytime soon after Friday's dismal jobs report, and strong monthly numbers from TSMC helping the AI narrative. A stellar earnings season is in its final stretch, prompting strategists at JPMorgan to boost their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8000.The team led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas cited stronger cloud growth and increased backlogs at Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. that should reduce worries over return on their invested capital.

“As elevated backlogs convert into recognized revenue, cloud growth should remain well supported, helping validate rising AI capex,” they said. “Across hyperscalers, demand indicators remain high and rising.”

Strategists at banks including Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are also among the most bullish voices on US stocks this year. On average, the S&P 500 is seen rising to 7,845 points by the year end, about 1% above current levels

As Bloomberg notes, there are fewer big market catalysts this week, though everyone will be closely looking at this week's CPI and PPI prints now that inflation is effectively the only thing the Fed is looking at to decide if to hike rates. Investors will also look for further clues on the AI trade — and on the debate around chip valuations — when Applied Materials, Lumentum and Cisco report in the coming days. Sandisk hosts an investor day on Thursday. Further out, Nvidia numbers and the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference are expected to provide some market volatility, if options signals are anything to go by.

“With earnings largely in the rear-view mirror, geopolitics — and particularly Iran’s impact on oil prices and inflation expectations — should move back to the forefront,” said Fabio Caldato, portfolio manager at AcomeA Sgr. “We are focused on Wednesday’s US CPI print as a key test of the ongoing disinflationary process.”

The S&P is tracking for earnings growth of almost 32% in the second quarter, nearly four times the average earnings growth rate outside of the coronavirus pandemic period since the fourth quarter of 2013, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, although much of that is from equity gains on investment. However, there’s more to the story than AI, with eight of the eleven GICS sectors poised for double-digit EPS growth in 2Q, led by energy (up 133%), technology (up 68%) and materials (up 41%).

In other assets, oil held onto gains from the end of last week as Iran and Oman remained short of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump signaled he’s prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes, marking a shift from his repeated threats to escalate the bombing campaign. Israel’s Netanyahu, meanwhile, hardened his position and rejected a proposal by US-backed mediators for disarming Hamas.

An agreement with Oman to establish a shipping route through Hormuz was “very close,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said over the weekend. He ruled out direct talks with the US for now because of violations of an interim peace deal reached in June.

Elsewhere, US large cap equity positioning has jumped from near neutral to now clearly overweight, with large-cap tech particularly elevated, though still below last year’s highs, according to Deutsche Bank strategists. A broadening in EPS growth and upward revisions pushes Morgan Stanley strategists to favor quality stocks as well as AI adopters.

Over the weekend, China’s factory-gate inflation eased for the first time since the start of the Iran war and consumer prices decelerated too, suggesting cost pressures sparked by the jump in oil prices are starting to fade and the threat of deflation returning is once again front and center. Economic growth in the euro-area is expected to be firmer after a resilient second quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Rate-hike expectations for the Swiss National Bank have been pushed back.

European stocks are little changed as the Stoxx 600 comes off its best daily streak of gains since June and more money managers say that this European equities rally could be durable. Technology shares leading the gains, boosted by strength in semiconductors. Media and telecom stocks are underperforming. Here are the biggest movers:

• Aumovio shares rose as much as 6.2% after Bernstein upgraded the stock to outperform from market-perform, saying the German auto parts maker’s valuation “leaves substantial upside and limited downside.”
• Plus500 shares rose as much as 7.1%, with analysts positive on the trading platform operator’s 1H results and shareholder returns program. Some of the numbers were already reported in a trading update last month
• Elmos shares rose as much as 7.8%, broadly in line with the European semiconductor sector, after Oddo BHF raised its recommendation to outperform from neutral
• Legal & General shares fell as much as 2.4%, the most in a month, after Citi cut its recommendation on the UK asset manager to sell from neutral
• Amundi dropped as much as 2.9%, the most in two months, after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to hold from buy
• Pharos Energy shares dropped as much as 6.9%, retreating from a six-year high, after Serica Energy said it’s takeover offer is “final and will not be increased” after being narrowly outbid by Ratio Petroleum last week.
• Aryzta fell as much as 14% to trade at the lowest since January 2023, after weak market conditions in Germany weighed on the Swiss baker’s profitability in the first half of the year

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, with the technology sector the top contributor to gains, after softer-than-expected US jobs data eased pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%, tracking an advance in US equities on Friday that drove the S&P 500 to an all-time high. Shares of Japan’s Recruit Holdings jumped by the most since its 2014 IPO to a record, after the owner of the Indeed job-search portal reported profit that beat estimates and raised its outlook. Taiwan’s Delta Electronics and TSMC were among the other big boosts to the Asia benchmark, with both firms posting a more than 40% jump in July sales. Japan’s Nikkei was the top gainer in the region, while equities in India and several Southeast Asian markets underperformed as oil prices extended gains. Iran and Oman remained short of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Houthi militants claimed an attack on a Saudi refinery near the Red Sea. In Indonesia, the Jakarta Composite Index reversed early gains that had put the benchmark on course for a bull market. Meanwhile, President Prabowo Subianto nominated Destry Damayanti as the sole candidate to head the nation’s central bank.

“Asian markets are taking their cue from Wall Street, where a surprisingly weak US jobs report has taken some of the heat off the Fed ahead of September,” said Josh Gilbert, lead analyst for Asia Pacific and the Middle East at eToro. “The test now is this week’s US inflation print,” with the picture challenged by higher oil prices due to the Iran war, he added.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%. The yen is the worst performer among G-10 currencies against a marginally stronger dollar. USD/JPY rises 0.6% toward 159, surpassing last week’s intraday high and more than erasing the drop we saw on Friday after the soft US jobs report prompted a broad dollar selloff.  The Bank of Japan flagged the risk of inflation heating up in the summary of views from its July meeting, with one board member noting the possibility of a faster pace of rate hikes.

In rates, treasuries are slightly weaker as the US trading day begins — with yields higher by 1bp-2bp and the curve flatter — as oil prices climb for a third straight day amid absence of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Yields remain inside Friday’s ranges, when rally sparked by soft July employment data faded over the course of the session as oil prices rose. US 10Y yields trade up to 4.67%, up 2bps. First Treasury coupon auction cycle of the August-to-October financing begins Tuesday with $58b 3-year note sale; 10- and 30-year new issue auctions follow over next two days US session has few calendar events, with quarterly new-issue auctions ahead this week along with July CPI report Wednesday.  IG credit new-issue calendar is expected to revive with $40 billion anticipated for the week, about half last week’s total, concentrated on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the major economic releases. JGB yields are higher with Treasury yields.

In commodities, Brent crude futures rise 1% to around $84.40 a barrel as Iran and Oman remained short of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while Iran ruled out direct talks with the US for now. WTI crude oil futures are up about 1.4% and highest in nearly a week. Tehran promoted a hard-line ex-commander as its top security official. President Trump said the US was “semi-negotiating” with Iran, according to an Axios report. Israel has rejected a proposal by US-backed mediators for disarming Hamas. Precious metal advance, with spot silver up 1%.

Today's US economic data calendar is blank for Monday; also ahead this week are July PPI and retail sales, and August preliminary University of Michigan sentiment. Fed speaker slate includes Cleveland Fed’s Hammack, unscripted on Yahoo Finance ( 3pm); later this week, Hammack and Richmond Fed’s Barkin have appearances slated Thursday.

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

• President Donald Trump signaled he’s prepared to let economic pressure on Iran build rather than launch fresh military strikes, saying the US was only “semi-negotiating” with Tehran on the Strait of Hormuz: BBG
• Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US concessions on several demands: RTRS
• Intel said it will be offering $15 billion in common stock, taking advantage of renewed interest in its business prospects during the artificial intelligence data center boom.
• Lenders scrutinize US data center financing as community opposition builds: RTRS
• Meta launches new AI model as Zuckerberg champions open-weight push: RTRS
• China Unleashes $28 Trillion Markets to Catch US in AI: BBG
• Stocks held near record highs with traders looking to the next big data print from the US as bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes eased. Oil climbed to $84 a barrel as a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive: BBG
• Boeing agreed to take a minority stake in Archer Aviation in a deal that hands over control of its flying-taxi venture Wisk Aero: WSJ
• Economic growth in the euro zone is set to quicken after showing surprising resilience to the Iran war, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts: BBG
• Poland and Baltics shield infrastructure, fearing a Russian false-flag strike: RTRS
• Ukraine kills 13 in drone attack on Russian city of Nizhnekamsk, officials say: RTRS
• Millions of burnt books show how 'war of endurance' is hurting Ukraine: AP
• GameStop’s Cohen Is Said to Weigh Pulling $56 Billion EBay Offer: BBG
• Wall Street traders and strategists say US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is sending fresh signals that he’s eager to keep bond yields from spiking higher: BBG
• Behind Bessent Moves, Wall Street Sees a Bond-Market Angst: BBG
• In rural Wisconsin, frustrations over Trump ag policies heat up House race: RTRS
• Swiss National Bank forecasters pushed back predictions for an interest-rate increase, with no move anticipated before next June at the earliest: BBG

Iran war

• Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said talks with Oman are constructive and positive, saying Tehran did not address the issue of fees in the discussions with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, but it is natural to collect fees for services received. He added that Iran is currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz rather than resuming negotiations with the US. Furthermore, Baghaei said Iran has demanded compensation for damage caused by the US-Israel war, while the Strait of Hormuz could reopen if no third party interferes.
• The Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee on Sunday approved the general outlines of a bill to manage the Strait of Hormuz, according to ISNA.
• US President Trump told Axios that they are only semi-negotiating with Iran and are just watching Iran with its huge inflation, while he stressed that Iran is in very bad shape economically and has no money to pay its troops, with the US naval blockade exacerbating the Iranian regime's economic crisis. However, he said it will work out and that it always works out, as well as compared it to a chess game regarding the back-and-forth with Iran.
• US Vice President JD Vance said the US is in the middle of a game in the Iran conflict.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian said now is the best time for an agreement because Iran is strong, united and seen as victorious in war. Pezeshkian separately commented on Friday that they will not yield to force, but are not seeking war or aggression either, while he added there will be no reason for the tension to continue if the pressure and threats against Iran stop. Furthermore, he said there was no gap between the government and the armed forces, as well as noted that Iran had solved many problems with its neighbours and relations had improved significantly.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Iran and the US are not engaged in talks, and Tehran will not allow them to start as long as Washington breaches the interim deal signed in June.
• Iran said it is very close to a deal with Oman regarding a new maritime transit route in the Strait of Hormuz, but it renewed a list of demands for the US to agree to before the waterway could open. It was separately reported that Iran warned it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless the US meets a series of conditions, including paying compensation for war damage, according to FT.
• Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued six demands to the US, including total force withdrawal, end to proxy warfare, financial reparations, sanctions and asset relief, lifting the blockade and cessation of rhetoric.
• The wait for the Iran-Oman deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz dragged on, with Iran warning the US that any pact wouldn’t lead to an immediate reopening of the key waterway.
• UKMTO reported that a vessel near Oman was struck by an unknown projectile, which caused a fire on board but has been extinguished.
• Saudi Arabia put out a fire at its Jazan plant early on Sunday, while Yemen’s Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack on the refinery. It was separately reported that Houthis resumed attacking Yemen’s Mocha port using ballistic missiles and drones, with the attacks aimed at Saudi troop concentrations and weapon depots in the region.
• Israel again targeted Alia Al-Tahir Hill in the Al-Nabatiyeh a governorate in southern Lebanon with artillery fire, according to IRNA
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel does not accept a US-backed 15-point plan for Gaza, under which Hamas would disarm in exchange for a phased Israeli withdrawal from the Palestinian enclave, according to FT.
• US official said the White House is not bothered by Israeli PM Netanyahu's statement on Gaza plan and sees it as part of election season in Israel, according to Axios

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were somewhat mixed, but with most major indices in the green, following last Friday's gains on Wall Street, where weak jobs data unwound Fed rate hike bets, while oil prices gained in the absence of a formal Strait of Hormuz deal, and participants also digested soft Chinese inflation data. ASX 200 was lower amid declines in the top-weighted financial sector following earnings from Westpac, while participants also look ahead to tomorrow's RBA rate decision, with the central bank widely expected to keep rates on hold, but continue to echo a hawkish tone. Nikkei 225 rallied as participants digested the recent slew of earnings, with the top gainers in the index driven by their quarterly earnings results. KOSPI traded higher but with upside capped amid the somewhat choppy price action in tech heavyweights and as participants also reflect on earnings releases. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were in the green, albeit with gains in the mainland contained following softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data over the weekend. Nonetheless, the data is seen to keep prospects of a rate cut in H2 on the table, while the PBoC said on Sunday that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in H2, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, and take solid steps to promote sustained and improved economic development.a

Top Asian News

• Chinese CPI MM (Jul) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.3%).
• Chinese CPI YY (Jul) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 1.0%).
• Chinese PPI YY (Jul) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 4.1%).
• Japanese Eco Watchers Survey Current (Jul) 45.7 vs. Exp. 44.4 (Prev. 44.0).
• Japanese Economy Watchers Survey Outlook (Jul) 45.8 (Prev. 45.7).

European bourses begin the week relatively muted, on a quiet earnings and data docket. No major geopolitical updates over the weekend either; Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands to the US, including total force withdrawal and ending proxy warfare. More recently, the Iranian Foreign Minister Baghaei said they are currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz rather than resuming negotiations with the US. Sectors tilt negatively. Tech tops the sector pile, helped by TSMC's July revenue figures (+44.7% Y/Y). Following another strong month of sales, analysts are now estimating a 46.8% revenue increase for Q3, proving that demand for AI hardware remains firm. Other sector gainers include Basic Resources and Energy. On the other side, Media is the sector laggard, with Food, Beverages &  Tobacco and Retail rounding out the sector underperformers. 

Top European News

• Germany Economy Minister Reiche warned that rising support for the far-right AfD could undermine the government’s efforts to attract foreign investors, as it seeks at least EUR 3.75tln in private capital by 2040, according to FT.

Fx

• Mixed performance across G10s, JPY leading declines while the GBP is the gainer alongside the Antipodeans.
• USD overnight attempted to claw back NFP losses, peaking at 99.70, though the modest rally (as much as +0.2%) came under pressure since the EU open, with the DXY returning back to unch. around 99.60. Focus this week will overwhelmingly be on the CPI print, especially since FT sources last week suggested Warsh was focused on the inflation side of the mandate heading into the September meeting. On that note, market bets for tightening remain trimmed vs. Friday, with the OIS curve implying ~22% probability of a hike, around half of that seen pre-data. Today's calendar is light, though remarks are expected from hawk Hammack.
• A continued UK narrative of "no news is good news" with UK Parliament on recess and PM Burnham trickle-feeding incremental cost-of-living policies. GBP carry remains attractive, and, combined with technicals, a strong REC/KPMG jobs number is helping Cable today, which recently lifted above 1.35, with EUR/GBP supported just above 0.8560 - EZ drivers light with a strong Sentix survey not sparking a reaction. EUR incrementally firmer against most CEE, with the week's calendar highlighted by Polish/Turkish/Czech inflation.
• JPY is the clear underperformer, USD/JPY around 30 pips higher than the US payrolls release. Pressure which lacks a clear driver, with BoJ's summary of opinions hawkish leaning "could be considered that the pace of policy interest rate hikes will have to be faster than market expectations". However, MUFG writes retail short USD/JPY positions have "probably" been liquidated. Participants are now potentially turning to a carry strategy, which could be seen as more attractive than chasing the pair lower at these levels. USD/JPY looks towards 159.00, currently 20-30 pips off that mark.

Fixed Income

• A contained start to the session for fixed income. With specifics for the space very light, the docket ahead is particularly thin, though it does pick up later in the week with US inflation prints, and as geopolitical uncertainty continues in what is beginning to feel somewhat like summer markets.
• USTs are flat in a thin sub-10 tick range. The docket ahead is very light, aside from Fed’s Hammack (2026, Hawk) who speaks to Yahoo. More generally, we await an update on the geopolitical front (see Commodities for details). Thereafter, the week is headlined by CPI, which draws focus after recent Fed commentary and particularly last week’s FT source reports, which placed the focus even more on near-term inflation prints; a point also exacerbated after the weak NFP report last week, which pared end-2026 hiking expectations.
• Bunds also flat, but have meandered through a c. 30 tick range, but yet to deviate lastingly from the 125.00 region. No move to the morning’s EZ Sentix for August, which printed much better than expected, driven by the current-conditions index, while the expectations component only increased marginally. More generally, the index shows that “Globally, the signs continue to point to a boom”, with all regions ex-Japan improving in August.
• Gilts opened with gains of just a few ticks, before pairing and moving to unchanged in-fitting with peers. As above, UK specifics are very light, aside from the usual political reporting around PM Burnham and potential smaller measures he may take in the weeks and months ahead, with specific reference to the cost of living. Currently, the benchmark is flat in 87.34-62 confines, well within Friday’s 87.09-80 band.

Commodities

• WTI Sept and Brent Oct futures hold a mild positive bias as US-Iran geopolitics remain uncertain, although gains remain capped as no direct military firings or airstrikes were exchanged between the US and Iranian forces over the weekend. To briefly recap, the US, Iran, and Oman are negotiating a temporary plan to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran says no immediate reopening is guaranteed. Iran is demanding major concessions, while disputes remain over banning US/Israeli ships and imposing transit fees under an Oman-Iran traffic-management deal. WTI resides in a USD 77.79-79.42/bbl range (vs Friday’s 76.53-78.77/bbl parameter). Brent trades within a USD 83.33-84.97/bbl range (vs Friday’s USD 81.50-84.44/bbl range).
• Dutch TTF has posted larger gains as the Middle Eastern concern is compounded by EU gas storage levels entering August at a historically low 55% capacity. Dutch TTF trades up almost 4% at the time of writing, north of EUR 57.50/MWh.
• Metals are firmer in continuation of Friday’s NFP-driven upside and amidst relatively stable oil prices and a lack of fresh geopolitics. Spot gold resides in a narrow USD 4,313-4,362/oz range, within Friday’s USD 4,230-4,372/oz range. 3M LME copper holds above USD 14k/t in a USD 14,033.98- 14,161.93/t, with little impact seen from the weekend’s soft Chinese inflation report.
• Kazakhstan is considering using the BTC and Baku-Supsa pipelines and the Trans-Caspian route via Azerbaijan, for oil exports amid disruptions to the CPC, according to IFX.
• UAE's ADNOC Gas is planning to invest over USD 8bln as part of its expansion push, according to the WSJ.
• Hungarian PM said rising Danube water levels have allowed Paks nuclear power plant to begin reverting one turbine to its original state.
• Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry said export disruptions could create a grain storage capacity shortfall of around 11mln T this autumn.
• UK regulators are readying a framework for tokenised gold as part of plans to encourage digitalisation of financial markets and safeguard London's dominance in global bullion trading, according to FT

Central Banks

• BoJ Summary of Opinions from the July meeting stated that a member said Middle East Development, expanding AI-related demand and weak yen all work towards pushing up inflation, while a member said consumer goods inflation is expected to pick up again towards autumn. Furthermore, a member said policymakers should stay alert to upside inflation risks from a weak yen and strong AI-related demand, while there was also the opinion that inflation risks are skewed sharply upward as higher oil costs feed into consumer prices, and global AI demand and Japan's expansionary fiscal policy support demand.

Geopolitics

• Russia struck two oil refineries in Ukraine's northeastern Sumy region, according to Interfax. It was separately reported that Ukraine’s Odesa port sustained damage from a Russian attack, while Russian authorities said five were killed in a Ukrainian drone attack on Belgorod.
• US President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and Kushner may visit Kyiv and Moscow within the next 7-10 days, according to TASS.

US Event Calendar

• 3:00 pm: Fed’s Hammack Appears on Yahoo Finance

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope you all had a nice weekend. After a couple of months of relentless heat, and with London threatening 37°C again on Thursday, please never let me complain about the cold, wet British weather again. I'm actually starting to feel nostalgic for it, even if I am quite grateful for the extra 40 yards of run on the fairways. I'm looking forward to the cool mountain air of the Alps next week... ... oh wait... it's also shaping up to be the hottest alpine summer on record, with barely any glacial snow left to run headfirst into to cool down. So there appears to be little respite on the horizon.

There's not much respite in markets either. Following Friday's payrolls report, which was somewhat mixed but appeared more dovish than hawkish at face value, attention this week will be firmly on July US CPI (Wednesday), which could go a long way towards tipping the balance for September FOMC pricing. Futures pricing fell by around 10 percentage points immediately after the release on Friday, leaving the implied probability at 44%.

Don't forget US PPI (Thursday) as well, especially for the components that feed directly into core PCE. Other US highlights include retail sales and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (both Friday). Elsewhere, attention will focus on the RBA policy decision (tomorrow), the Norges Bank meeting and UK Q2 GDP report (Thursday), and inflation releases across Asia and Europe. Corporate earnings are quieter than in recent weeks but reports from Tencent, BYD, Cisco, Applied Materials and CoreWeave will still attract attention.

Before we go into the week ahead in more detail the situation in Iran remains finely balanced with Iran’s latest political and security moves suggesting that Tehran is trying to balance a tougher domestic posture with a continued search for a diplomatic off-ramp. The appointment of former Revolutionary Guard commander Mohsen Rezaee to head the Supreme National Security Council reinforces hard-line influence at the centre of decision-making, even as Iranian officials insist they are close to an agreement with Oman on a new shipping framework through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has described the talks as being in their final stages, but Tehran has stressed that any technical agreement on shipping routes would not by itself lead to a full reopening of the waterway. Reuters and other major outlets report that Iran continues to tie any lasting Hormuz arrangement to wider demands on the US, including sanctions relief, compensation for war damage and security guarantees. Oman has characterised the negotiations as constructive, while Washington has signalled a willingness to continue talks despite periodic tensions. Brent is up around +0.8% this morning but US and European equity futures are fairly flat.

In Asia the Nikkei (+1.80%) is strong this morning but the KOSPI is fading after a decent start and is now broadly flat on the day. Elsewhere, Chinese equities are mixed, with the CSI 300 declining -0.52%, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up +0.72% and +0.20%, respectively. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 is down -0.42%, surrendering a portion of the gains recorded on Friday.

China’s weekend July inflation data underscored the fading impact of this year’s oil shock and a loss of domestic economic momentum. Headline CPI slowed to 0.5% y/y (vs. 0.8% expected, 1.0% prior), while core CPI eased to 0.9% y/y from 1.0% (1.0% expected). Producer price inflation also came in softer than anticipated, with PPI rising 3.5% y/y (vs. 3.9% expected, 4.1% prior), suggesting that easing commodity costs and still-weak domestic demand are limiting pricing pressures.

This all follows last Friday’s US payrolls report certainly offering a mixed assessment of labour market conditions. Headline payrolls unexpectedly fell by -23k, private payroll growth slowed to just +30k, and the previous two months were revised down by a cumulative -103k. However, according to our economists, much of the weakness was concentrated in two sectors - leisure and hospitality (-40k) and local government education (-50k), while goods-producing employment and construction both posted their strongest gains in several months. At the same time, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, its lowest level since early 2025. Our economists view the report as consistent with a broadly stable labour market rather than a sharp deterioration, noting that demographic factors continue to weigh on participation. The softer payrolls data has reduced the urgency for further Fed tightening in the near term, but with labour market slack only gradually increasing, it's over to Wednesday's US CPI.

On this big number, our economists expect headline CPI to rise by +0.15% mom after June’s -0.42% decline, while core CPI is forecast at +0.26% mom following an unchanged reading in June. Lower gasoline prices should keep headline inflation softer than core, and if forecasts are realised both headline and core annual inflation rates would edge down by around one-tenth to 3.45% and 2.51% respectively. Markets will also be watching for evidence of payback from several unusual price moves in June, particularly across parts of core goods and services.

Attention will then turn to July PPI on Thursday. Our economists expect headline producer prices to rise by +0.22% mom, with core PPI at +0.3% mom. Particular focus will fall on categories that feed into core PCE inflation, including healthcare services, airfares and portfolio management. Our economists are currently tracking +0.22% in July and 3.3% YoY.

Friday’s US data will offer the first major read on Q3 activity. Our economists expect retail sales to increase by +0.3% mom in July, while lower fuel prices may weigh on the headline figure relative to underlying spending measures. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is expected to ease to 52.5 in August from 55.2 previously. Fed speakers are relatively sparse, although comments from Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Richmond Fed President Barkin may attract attention following the inflation data.
Outside the US, we have a couple of G10 central banks in focus this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision tomorrow, with our economists (and the market) expecting rates to remain unchanged at 4.35%. Norges Bank follows on Thursday with a 25% probability of a hike priced in.

In Europe, the key release will be the UK’s Q2 GDP report on Thursday. Our economists expect June GDP to contract by -0.1% mom, leaving quarterly growth at +0.4% qoq, although risks are seen as tilted to the downside. Elsewhere, Norway and Denmark both publish July CPI figures today.

On the corporate side, the earnings season is becoming less intensive, with 400 out of the S&P 500 having now reported, but several notable companies remain on the calendar. In the US, investors will focus on results from Cisco, Applied Materials and CoreWeave, while in China attention will fall on Tencent and BYD.

Recapping last week now and markets were dominated by developments surrounding talks with Iran. Investors priced de-escalation in Middle East tensions as negotiations between Iran and Oman progressed, though some of that optimism then faded as details of a potential agreement on Thursday raised questions over whether the US would accept the deal and just how free-flowing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be. Energy prices moved sharply lower through the middle of the week, and while Brent crude rebounded from lows of around $78/bbl on Wednesday, it still finished the week down -7.29% to $83.55/bbl (+1.29% on Friday). WTI crude was down -7.67% to $78.18/bbl (+1.15% on Friday), while European natural gas futures slid by -4.42% over the week.  

The fall in energy prices supported a risk-on move, helping the S&P 500 (+3.58%, +0.62% Friday), Stoxx 600 (+1.70%, +0.31% on Friday), DAX (+2.69%, +0.69% Friday) and CAC 40 (+2.41%, +0.17% Friday) all reach new record highs. For both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ (+5.19%, +1.30% Friday), this also marked the largest weekly gains since April. Equities were also supported by the continued rebound in the AI trade that had started late the previous week. The Phily Semiconductor (Sox) Index rose +9.24% last week (+2.56% on Friday) after a difficult July. Other risk assets also benefited, with US HY credit spreads (-15bps) seeing their joint biggest weekly tightening since April.  
Friday’s risk asset rally followed the soft US July Jobs report that saw markets dial back prospects of a September Fed hike. Following the print, investor pricing of a September Fed rate hike fell to 44% (from 72% a week earlier and 57% on Thursday). In turn, Treasury yields declined, with the 2yr (-9.6bps, -5.3bps Friday), and 10yr (-9.0bps, -3.5bps Friday) yields posting their largest weekly declines since May. In Europe, government bond yields also declined, with the 10yr gilt (-12.9bps, -1.7bps Friday), BTP (-12.0bps, -1.8bps Friday), and bund (-7.4bps, -0.8bps on Friday) yields all lower. The European bond rally was supported by the pullback in inflation pricing amid lower oil, with the Euro 1yr inflation swap down -13.1bps to 2.26% (+5.9bps on Friday).

In FX markets, the yen remained a major focus following recent intervention effort, while stronger Japanese wage growth and more hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan reinforced expectations for additional policy tightening. The yen ended the week a marginal -0.23% weaker against the US dollar at 157.76 (+0.42% Friday). Meanwhile, gold rose +7.30% to $4,342/oz (+2.44% Friday) in its best week since January.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 08:21

'The Financial Equivalent Of All Out Nuclear War': Jim Rickards Says 'Yentervention' Is The Biggest Story In The World

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Eight-time, best-selling financial author Jim Rickards is warning of a financial calamity already underway that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is trying to contain.  It is the Japanese yen carry trade where the US Treasury is propping up the yen’s value. 

Is the yen carry trade coming to a halt and can it blow up things?  Rickards says, “The answer is yes and yes..."

"Somebody wrote me and asked if the yen carry trade is a big deal?  I wrote them back and said there is nothing bigger.  This is actually the biggest story in the world.”

In simple terms, the problem is people have been borrowing at 0% in yen to do deals around the world.  Everything was fine until interest rates in Japan started going up after more than two decades.  Rickards says, “This is the engine of global economic growth.  It has been powering the US economy and the global economy for over 30 years.  What could go wrong?" 

" The thing that could go wrong the fastest is if Japanese interest rates went up. . .. The bank of Japan says it is going to keep raising interest rates.  It’s not going to the moon, but 3% for yen (and Japanese) interest rates is like going to the moon when it’s been 0% for 20 years. 

So, now, the yen carry trade is unwinding. . .. The original borrower borrows dollars to pay back the yen loan, swaps the yen and pays back the yen loan.  What if you can’t borrow?  What if the bank says sorry, no soup for you. . ..

Now, what do you do if you want to get out of the yen carry trade?  You have to sell assets.  So, you are going to sit there and make a lot less money or even lose money, or you are going to dump assets to get dollars to pay back the yen loan.  They are both bad for the markets.  It you have to sell assets, guess what?  The price goes down, and other people have to sell assets.  The next thing you know it’s a stampede, and everyone is running for the exit.  This is not a few investment banks on Wall Street or a few hedge funds. 

This is the whole world getting out of the leveraged exchange rate engine that has been running the world for 30 years.  That is the financial equivalent of all out nuclear war.”

Rickards goes on to explain, “Japan is the number one holder of US Treasuries..."

"  They have been selling Treasuries to get dollars to buy yen to prop up the yen.  What happens when you sell Treasuries?  US interest rates go up.  Do you think the Trump Administration or Secretary of the Treasury want US interest rates to go up?

...Treasury Secretary Bessent called Japan and said hold on to your Treasuries.  We will give you all the dollars you need with a swap line with the Federal Reserve. 

So, what we are doing is the US is using dollars from the Fed to prop up the yen.  So, the Japanese do not have to raise interest rates.  So, the carry trade does not unwind.  So, the markets don’t collapse. . ..  It is extremely dangerous...

You are trying to defend an exchange rate that probably can’t be defended, and it is just a matter of time before it breaks.”

Back in 2016, long before the central banks were buying gold hand over fist, Rickards told people to buy gold in his best-selling book “The New Case for Gold.”

Back then, gold was a little more than $1,300 per ounce.  With the price down to around $4,300 per ounce today, that looks like it was very good investment advice.  We are nowhere near the high for gold, and Rickards predicts:

“I think it’s going to the moon.  When I say the moon, I mean $10,000 per ounce.  We have had our correction. . .. We are now heading back up again, and it’s going to happen very quickly.”

On the midterms in November and Trump stopping the voter fraud by Democrats, Rickards says:

“Things are going to get rough.  It’s already in the works.  You can see it coming.  Look at “Act Blue.”  Turns out it was a total fraud.  They were taking foreign money, which is illegal.  They were raising billions of dollars, but they were doing it completely illegally.  They are under investigation, and their board has resigned and ran for the hills. . ..  You take Act Blue and Southern Poverty Law Center off line and that is what the Trump Administration has done, that is billions of dollars the Democrats cannot get their hands on. . ..

In the midterms, the Republicans will spend $500 million and have an army of 500 lawyers fanning out all over the country.  They are not going to wait until after the election to stop fraud.”

The Trump Administration will also stop the mail-in ballot fraud through the US Postal Service. . .. The US Postal service is going to save the day by tracking every single piece of mail (and mail- in ballot.)

There is much more in the 65-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes one-on-one with Jim Rickards, eight-time best-selling financial author, to talk about gold, 2026 midterm elections, stopping voter fraud, the economy and the yen carry trade unwind for 8.8.2026.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 08:05

The Fed Is Failing Its Mandate, But It Could Change Soon

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The Federal Reserve’s legal mandate is clear. It must focus on stable prices and maximum employment. In the past five years, the Fed has failed on both. Inflation remains materially above the 2 percent target, reaching a decade-high 25% cumulative inflation in the 2021-2025 period, while restrictive monetary conditions have been limited to rate hikes, which weigh most heavily on the small and medium-sized firms that generate most of net employment growth.

This failure was not merely a matter of missing a forecast but a policy framework that became narrative-driven rather than data-dependent. The Fed spent much of 2025 moving between concerns about inflation from tariffs based on ideology and a growing admission of weakness in the labor market. However, it continued to treat interest rates as its overwhelmingly dominant instrument. That is a poor policy mix when the problem of persistent inflation was caused by excessive government spending. Kritzman, at MIT Sloan, concluded that “mathematically, the overwhelming driver of that burst of inflation in 2022 was federal spending, not the supply chain.” However, the Fed’s policy was directed at penalizing the private sector while incentivizing large government deficit spending.

The Fed defines price stability as inflation running at 2 percent, measured by the PCE price index. That goal was still unmet at the end of 2025. Headline PCE inflation rose 2.9 percent year over year in December, while core PCE inflation was 3.0 percent. Both headline and core inflation increased 0.4 percent in that month alone. This is not price stability. It is persistent erosion of household purchasing power. A family does not suffer the inflation target in a Federal Open Market Committee statement but significantly higher price increases than those reflected in CPI at the supermarket, the gas station, rent payment, and utility bills. The fact that inflation has slowed from its 2022 peak does not mean the inflation problem has gone away. Prices remain permanently higher after years of monetary and fiscal excess, and the cumulative loss of purchasing power remains embedded in household budgets.

The Fed’s narrative during 2025 frequently focused on temporary factors, inexistent tariff effects, labor-market rebalancing, and the expected path of core inflation. Some of those factors mattered. But the larger error was to ignore the monetary and fiscal origins of the inflation shock. Inflation did not appear suddenly. It was the consequence of an extraordinary expansion of money, liquidity, and deficit-financed spending in 2021 through 2024.

The United States ran enormous fiscal deficits even after the pandemic emergency had passed. Government spending grew aggressively, while the central bank’s earlier asset-purchase programs absorbed a large volume of government and mortgage debt. The result was a policy mix in which fiscal expansion was incentivized and monetary discipline was inexistent.

The Fed was not a brake on fiscal excess. It was an enabler.

Quantitative easing and the expansion of the central-bank balance sheet created the perception that all public deficits could be financed at artificially low cost without consequences. That illusion encouraged Yellen and Biden to treat debt issuance as painless and made it easier to sustain spending levels that exceeded the productive capacity of the economy. Yellen’s reckless decision to refinance most maturities with short-term bonds proves this. She was clearly expecting more easing in 2025 after the unnecessary rate cuts announced in the middle of the election campaign.

Money supply growth, deficit spending, and ultra-low policy rates were not small mistakes or isolated events created by an emergency. Together they created too much unproductive demand relative to available supply. When supply chains normalized and energy prices fell, some disinflation followed, but the excess monetary and fiscal impulse had already lifted the general price level and distorted the allocation of capital. Furthermore, the overall inflation continued to rise even when energy prices fell below 2022 levels and supply chain costs dropped to pre-COVID-era prices, proving that monetary and fiscal excess, not a supply shock, was the main cause.

The government’s and Fed’s responses made the error worse. Instead of controlling spending and understanding the fiscal source of persistent inflation, using the balance sheet more forcefully, the government increased public spending by 2 trillion above the emergency levels of the COVID-era, and the Fed placed the burden of restrictive policy on private sector borrowers. Families with credit cards, first-time homebuyers, small businesses, and entrepreneurs became the transmission mechanism of monetary policy.

Small firms are the backbone of the U.S. labor market. Businesses with fewer than 250 employees account for more than 51 percent of net job creation and generate 58 percent of net private-sector employment growth from the first quarter of 2023 through the end of 2025.

Small businesses do not finance investments like large listed corporations, issuing bonds, syndicated loans, or share issuances. Small businesses need bank credit, using variable-rate loans, personal guarantees, commercial-property lending, and retained earnings.

The Fed’s restrictive policy hits the productive economy hardest. A large company with a strong balance sheet can delay expansion. A small business with a refinancing need will stop hiring, cut inventories, postpone equipment purchases, or close altogether.

NFIB data shows that the average short-term loan rate paid by small-business borrowers was 8.4 percent in December 2025. Only 25 percent of owners reported borrowing regularly, a historically low share.  

By keeping liquidity elevated, enabling government excess, and hiking rates, the Fed has made borrowing costs prohibitive and often nonexistent for small businesses (SMEs). For many banks it became safer and more profitable to hoard government debt than to lend to families and businesses.

SME credit constraints accelerate employment losses, accounting for roughly one-third of the aggregate employment response to monetary-policy shocks. Thus, the central bank cannot claim to support maximum employment while maintaining a framework that punishes the firms responsible for most of the job creation.

The Fed’s own institutional analysis recognized that policy remained contractionary even after rate reductions, with the federal funds rate above the neutral level. Therefore, monetary policy was still restrictive while inflation was not being driven by an overheated private economy.

There is no compelling case for maintaining a punitive rate stance when private-sector credit creation is weak, hiring is slowing, and the inflation impulse is increasingly concentrated in transitory categories such as energy or government-driven cost pressures. The correct question is not whether inflation is above target. It is what is causing it.

As inflation comes from excessive government spending, debt monetization, or a temporary energy shock that is fading, higher rates do nothing to solve the source of the problem. As such, it gives the impression of a restrictive, inflation-control-focused policy but it is very far from the stated intention. The Fed was exceedingly accommodative when it came to bloating the size of government in the economy and aggressively hawkish against the private productive sector. Therefore, rate hikes simply crushed investment and consumption in sectors that did not create the inflation.

This is the massive policy mistake at the heart of the Fed’s 2021-2025 approach. It tried to cure inflation through higher borrowing costs while leaving the balance-sheet channel underused and allowing fiscal dominance to remain unchallenged. The Fed was trying to cure obesity in the system by starving the part of the economy that was already thin.

Interest rates are a blunt instrument, similar to using a cannon to swat flies. They affect every borrower, but their damage is greatest for households and smaller firms. The balance sheet is a more direct tool for removing excess liquidity, reducing monetary distortions, and restoring discipline to governments and financial markets.

The Fed did reduce securities holdings by around $2.2 trillion from June 2022. However, in October 2025, it announced that securities runoff would cease from December 1, even though its balance sheet remained extraordinarily large by historical standards. That decision sent the wrong signal. It suggested that the Fed was more willing to preserve the sovereign debt bubble and manage short-term market corrections than to implement monetary normalization. The Fed’s balance sheet has never returned to normal. It simply declines for a short period of time, only to rise again.

The Fed should have accelerated the balance-sheet reduction in a transparent and predictable manner instead of delaying it, allowing Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to roll off more rapidly, thus reducing excess money in the system. Powell and the Fed should have made clear that monetary policy cannot serve as a permanent buyer of government debt. They did the opposite.

That framework would reduce excess liquidity without forcing the entire adjustment onto entrepreneurs and working families. Furthermore, it would also create pressure for greater fiscal discipline, because government borrowing would face a more realistic market price.

Kevin Warsh offers an opportunity for a needed change in focus and approach. He recognizes that the Fed has two major instruments, interest rates and the balance sheet, and that they do not affect the economy equally. Warsh has argued that balance-sheet policy disproportionately benefits holders of financial assets, while rate policy reaches broadly across the real economy. He has supported a smaller balance sheet alongside lower interest rates, rather than treating rate hikes as the automatic and only answer to every inflation concern. This would make price stability and maximum employment easier to achieve.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 07:20

My back-to-work morning reads:

• Mind the Gap 2026: Morningstar’s annual investor return gap study — the difference between fund returns and investor returns, driven by badly timed buying and selling. The behavior gap persists, and it’s still costing investors more than a percentage point a year. (Morningstar)

• Elon Musk is building a form of capitalism that Adam Smith would hate: The merchants are becoming princes, writes Tim O’Reilly (Economist) (archive mirror) see also Trump quietly clears the road for Musk’s Cybercab: “It’d be wonderful for the United States to have a national set of rules for autonomous driving.” It’d be wonderful for the United States to have a national set of rules for autonomous driving. (Popular Information)

• The Mystery of Online Prices: How Personal Data and Privacy Change What You Pay for Groceries: Mozilla Foundation’s investigation into surveillance pricing — the same cart costs different amounts for different people, and the data brokers deciding who pays more. (Mozilla Foundation)

• The Service A post-mortem on New York City’s weed underground. Ariel Delgado Dixon is the author of the new novel, Sourland. Here, she remembers a kingpin whose dog she used to walk. (Dirt)

• These AI Barons Are Ready to Give Away Their Fortunes: A new generation of philanthropists made rich by artificial intelligence are preparing to give away their vast wealth. What should we make of a multi-billion-dollar pinky promise? Wired on the AI wealth pledge wave — the billionaires promising to give it all away, and the question of whether philanthropy at this scale is generosity or governance. (Wired)

• Danny Meyer Finally Tells Us What Went Wrong: Matt Rodbard’s interview with the hospitality legend — the no-tipping retreat, the Union Square Cafe moves, and an unusually candid accounting of the bets that didn’t work. The new book What Could Possibly Go Right? is honest about wrong decisions. The industry needs to hear this. (Food Time with Matt Rodbard)

• How Data Centers Broke American Politics: What the Unabomber, Steve Bannon’s tech guy, and Bernie Sanders taught me about the great data center backlash of 2026. Wired on the data center backlash as a political realignment — power bills, water rights, and land use are scrambling party coalitions in every state with a buildout. (Wired)

• How the U.S. Squandered Its Strategic Advantage: The Atlantic on the weapons shortage shaping the Iran conflict — decades of industrial-base neglect meeting the reality of sustained munitions expenditure. (The Atlantic)

• The Prettiest Town in Every US State: From Stonington, Maine, to Carmel-by-the-Sea, California, these picturesque locales prove that living large isn’t a requirement for living beautifully (Architectural Digest)

• How Jordan Harper Reinvented Noir for the Epstein Era: The New Yorker on the crime novelist whose fiction maps the actual power structures of exploitation — noir updated for a world where the conspiracies are real and documented. This year’s buzzy “A Violent Masterpiece” inverts the genre’s traditional contrast between optimism and despair. Is a hopeful crime novel still a noir? (New Yorker)

Video of the day: Erasing Taxes For the Rich Is the Hottest Business on Wall Street

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week with Jack Raines, a writer and venture capitalist. We discuss his new book, Young Money.

100 Years of US Stock Market Wealth Creation Breakdown – Bessembinder Findings

Source: Morningstar

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

"Chuds" Rejoice As Woke Video Game Studio Bethesda Crushed By Mass Layoffs

From around 2014 through 2023 nearly every aspect of western pop culture from movies to television to comic books to video games to marketing was invaded by what seemed like a highly coordinated horde of far-left activists.  This subversive coup in entertainment launched what many now refer to as the "woke era" in western politics, giving birth to the infamous concepts of "cancel culture" and "DEI".  

The movement was incredibly well supported with billions in funding through ESG lending and government subsidies.  Politicians protected them from legal consequences and helped to censor their opponents.  Mainstream journalists lavished them with praise and ran propaganda to tear down critics. 

NGOs funneled easy cash into any organization that declared its fealty to the progressive multicultural agenda.  True beleivers were planted into every level of every media industry.  Those companies that did not immediately comply were extorted into conformity with threats of mob harassment, accusations of "bigotry" and potential boycotts. 

    

Numerous corporations fully embraced and enabled the spread of the woke mind virus.  Even though the political left often claims they are "fighting against the elitist class", their entire movement owes its existence to corporate and government support.

The battle against the woke takeover had been bubbling under the surface for many years as a rebellion was waged by a small but scrappy alternative media.  However, at that time, the public was largely unaware of the psy-op that was targeting them.  There was nowhere near enough popular momentum to stop the coup.  All the political left had to do was deny that any such an agenda existed.  It was "all in people's heads" and a product of "conspiracy theory." 

Then, leftist activists hijacked video games and video game journalism, injected the industry with woke messaging and pissing off millions of gamers.  After that, everything changed. 

"Gamergate" was born and the anti-feminist, anti-DEI movement exploded like wildfire.  What Gamergate accomplished, mainly, was forcing the issue into the mainstream and forcing the establishment media to acknowledge that a coordinated invasion was taking place.  Journalists went from denying the existence of the agenda to openly defending the agenda as a good thing. 

One game development studio that stood at the forefront of the woke mob and aggressively engaged in the culture war against traditional western storytelling was Bethesda Softworks, a subsidiary of Microsoft.  Once a legendary studio famous for the "Fallout" franchise, the company ultimately reveled in the subversion of their largely straight, male audience and sought to "teach the Chuds a lesson" by destroying everything they held dear. 

Asmongold reacts to Bethesda employees being forced to tear down a memorial for laid off coworkers

"Yesterday's layoffs at Bethesda cut 14 layers of management, we lost dozens of programmers, artists, designers and testers, many of whom worked on BGS for decades"

"Apparently… pic.twitter.com/Df7iygAMXF

— Asmongold Daily (@Asmongold_Daily) July 10, 2026

Simultaneously, Bethesda was engaging in political support for activist projects like Black Lives Matter and LGBT pride.  The virtue signaling was off the charts.  The fight with the studio hit a crescendo with the release of "Starfield", an open world sci-fi game that seemed to focus more on DEI and pronouns than creative storytelling.  The game was meant to be Bethesda's crowing achievement, but it failed due to gamer boycotts.

Starfield, which cost around $400 million to produce, was met with a mediocre reception and within a few months player numbers crashed by 90%.  Evidence suggests the game never actually made a profit.  The ongoing failures of Bethesda contributed to the wider cuts by Microsoft/X Box and studio was hit particularly hard. 

In 2026, the Chuds are rejoicing over the collapse of studios like Bethesda, and rightly so.  Gamers tried to warn them but they refused to listen.   

Last month, Microsoft announced a financial "reset" which led to structural layoffs.  As a result, Bethesda has now fired an estimated 30%-40% of employees with a large number of developers being kicked to the curb.  It should come as no surprise that most of these employees look exactly as you might expect: A gaggle of socialist circus freaks.    

Seeing these former employees all together in one place makes it perfectly clear what caused Bethesda to implode.

Some analysts theorize that the Microsoft culling is actually meant to rectify mistakes from the woke era and purge activist troublemakers from their payroll.  A large number of corporations have been doing the same thing in recent years after realizing there is no market for DEI in media.  Having the faintest smell of social justice propaganda in their products leads to collapsing sales. 

By extension, woke activist employees are notorious for creating problems from thin air and litigating against their employers.  There's really no downside to firing them.    

The delusion these former developers suffer from is embarrassing.  They seem convinced that their projects were financially successful, but if that was the case they would not be losing their jobs en masse.  The event is yet another example of the entitlement mentality that has infected corporate employees today; they treat any firing as if it is a violation of someone's civil rights.  If a worker believes that a company is supposed to value their livelihood above making a profit, that person is not mentally equipped to function in the real world.

Remaining workers at the company staged a mock memorial for their fired comrades, as if they had died in the line of duty.  It's more evidence for why their hands should never come near media content ever again. They should be serving overpriced coffee at Starbucks, not influencing $400 million media projects.

For the conservatives who still don't understand the importance of pop media and video games when it comes to the greater political conflict in the west, just know that it doesn't matter if you don't get it; just know that the political left does get it.  They almost successfully pirated the entire western world by taking control of entertainment media and saturating it with woke indoctrination. 

If it's important to them, it should damn well be important to you.  

Politics is downstream from culture.  Win the culture war, win the west.  It's that simple.  Video games represent the biggest slice of the media industry by far and this is where younger generations are going to congregate and form their collective views.  Luckily, they saw the takeover coming and moved to intercept before it was too late. 

At least greater populist movements are more aligned with the importance of the culture war and what it represents in recent years.  There are still numerous problems with getting everyone on the same page, but compared to a decade ago, the improvement has been dramatic.  The fact that "Get Woke, Go Broke" has become a rule rather than a mantra is a bit of a miracle.    

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 05:45

He Just Bought It From A Shop...

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

A young British man walked out of a Manchester shop with a brand new baseball bat still sealed in its factory plastic packaging. Within moments, multiple police officers were on him, treating the purchase as a weapon and detaining him in full view of the street.

The footage, which spread rapidly on Sunday, captures the absolute state of policing in modern Britain. Officers challenge the lad, physical contact follows, backup including motorbike units arrives, and he ends up in a police van.

The bat's plastic covering remains clearly visible throughout. No claim has emerged that he brandished it, threatened anyone, or used it for anything other than carrying it home after a legitimate purchase.

Meanwhile in Manchester ??

A British lad just bought a brand new baseball bat from a shop and is POUNCED upon by MULTIPLE police officers immediately after leaving the store.

The officers accuse him of "carrying a weapon" even though the bat was clearly brand new and just... pic.twitter.com/FNZGRQnYy5

— BRITAIN IS BROKEN ?? (@BROKENBRITAIN0) August 9, 2026

Under the Prevention of Crime Act 1953, officers can stop and check items that could be used as offensive weapons in public if there is no clear reasonable excuse. A brand-new bat still in its shop packaging, purchased moments earlier, is the definition of a reasonable excuse for any ordinary person. Yet the response was immediate and multi-officer.

This incident does not stand alone. It fits a documented pattern that has played out repeatedly under the current climate of policing.

In early July, footage from Birmingham showed a white teenager who had just been attacked by a group of black males. A female officer moved in, shielded the aggressors, and directed force at the victim.

Multiple officers then swarmed the white lad, used foul language including "You're going to walk to the car you fucking dick," forced him into a police car the wrong way, and dragged him back out.

A bystander trying to explain that the white teenager was the victim was ignored. The attackers left without consequence. West Midlands Police were reported to have discouraged further sharing of the footage rather than addressing the conduct on camera.

That same period produced further examples. South Yorkshire Police officers were filmed shoving, baton-wielding and pointing Tasers at teenage girls during a dispersal in Rotherham. The force itself described the short clip as appearing "nothing short of shocking."

Rotherham, of course, remains the site of the long-running grooming gangs scandal in which authorities failed for years to protect native British girls. Officers have also been captured manhandling a five-year-old boy, slamming a man's head into a metal bollard, and using heavy force against a military veteran simply sitting on a wall filming while stating he was doing nothing wrong.

The following days brought another layer of absurdity. Officers were filmed confronting people for standing around in public squares doing nothing, threatening arrest for filming in public on the grounds that presence "might" wind someone up and lead to a breach of the peace, and even entering a pub to warn a man over a critical tweet about a local councillor.

One Merseyside officer was caught calling a man legally filming a "nonce." Resources that should have been directed at actual violence were instead spent inventing pre-crime justifications against ordinary citizens exercising basic rights.

Meanwhile the daily reality on Britain's streets continues without pause. People are being stabbed and assaulted hour after hour, day after day. The endless stream of reports is dominated by migrants and feral gangs.

Knives, machetes and random street attacks fill the crime logs and the local news. Strangely, the videos of white British lads roaming around smashing people with baseball bats remain vanishingly rare.

The cameras and the officers somehow never seem to catch that particular threat in action. Yet a sealed bat bought from a shop is enough to trigger an immediate multi-officer response.

The common thread is selective aggression. Native British people going about lawful business - buying sports equipment, filming in public, standing still, or simply existing as the victim of an assault - face rapid, multi-officer responses.

Patterns of violence involving other demographics frequently receive a lighter touch or none at all. The Henry Nowak case remains the most egregious recent illustration: the white student handcuffed while dying after his killer falsely claimed racial abuse, while the actual attacker was not restrained in the same way.

Police chiefs have denied the existence of two-tier policing while acknowledging that the public perception is widespread. Anti-racism guidance that instructed officers not to treat everyone "the same" has been under review precisely because of the damage it has done to trust. The result on the ground is what the Manchester bat video shows: a young man treated as a threat for carrying a sealed item out of a shop.

Equal treatment under the law is not optional. When officers prioritise optics, ideology, or fear of certain accusations over consistent application of the rules, public confidence collapses.

A brand-new baseball bat in plastic is not a public order crisis. Treating it as one while real threats are managed with kid gloves is the crisis. Britons are watching these clips in growing numbers. The pattern is no longer deniable.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/10/2026 - 05:00