Individual Economists

Saudi Arabia's Most Critical Pipeline Restored After Drone Attack

Zero Hedge -

Saudi Arabia's Most Critical Pipeline Restored After Drone Attack

A key Saudi oil pipeline to the Red Sea was restored on Sunday and is now pumping at full capacity after an Iranian drone attack last week damaged a pumping station.

The East-West pipeline is back at full capacity, moving about 7 million barrels per day and restoring critical energy flows from Saudi's Persian Gulf oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz.

Bloomberg quoted the Saudi energy ministry as saying that Saudi Aramco's offshore Manifa field has been restored, while repairs continue at the Khurais onshore complex. Last week, attacks on Manifa and Khurais each knocked out about 300,000 bpd.

"This quick recovery reflects the high operational resilience and crisis management efficiency of Saudi Aramco and the kingdom's energy ecosystem as a whole, thereby enhancing the reliability and continuity of supplies to local and global markets," the energy ministry said.

The Iranian attack on the pipeline last week came on the same day the U.S. and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire. By Sunday, after a marathon round of talks in Islamabad between Vice President JD Vance, U.S. negotiators, and Iranian negotiators, no peace deal was reached, but the door was left open for future diplomacy.

"We leave here with a very simple proposal: a method of understanding that is our final and best offer," Vance told reporters earlier. "We'll see if the Iranians accept it."

On Saturday, the U.S. Department of War confirmed that two U.S. warships transited the Hormuz chokepoint to begin marine mine-clearing operations. Only a handful of ships have transited the critical waterway, as traffic remained muted late into the weekend.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 08:45

India's Nuclear Bet Is Starting To Pay Off

Zero Hedge -

India's Nuclear Bet Is Starting To Pay Off

Authored by Haley Zaremba via OilPrice.com,

  • India's fast breeder reactor in Tamil Nadu achieved criticality earlier this month, making it self-sustaining and only the second commercial plant of its kind in the world.

  • The 500-megawatt plant advances India's goal of reaching 100 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2047, up from roughly 9 gigawatts today.

  • While the milestone is significant, experts warn India's 'all of the above' energy strategy may need to become more targeted as demand grows.

India has reached a milestone in its nuclear energy program through its state-of-the-art fast breeder reactor, signalling a major step forward for the clean energy transition in the world’s most populous country. The country’s most advanced nuclear reactor reached criticality earlier this month, meaning that the nuclear chain reaction powering the plant is self-sustaining. This breakthrough will ultimately allow India to import far less uranium to power its nuclear program, and can be adapted to use domestic thorium reserves for fuel in a win-win for the subcontinent’s energy security and autonomy. 

When the plant comes online fully, it will be only the second commercial breeder plant of its kind in the world. The other is in Russia. These plants could change the nuclear landscape completely, as they are capable of producing more fissile material (in essence, nuclear fuel) than they consume. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the achievement as “a proud moment for India” and “a defining step” in advancing India’s nuclear program.

“This advanced reactor, capable of producing more fuel than it consumes, reflects the depth of our scientific capability and the strength of our engineering enterprise. It is a decisive step towards harnessing our vast thorium reserves in the third stage of the programme,” Modi said in a post on X on Monday.

This achievement is a long time in the making. The plant, based in the Southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, has been in development since 2000. It’s not yet clear when the plant will come online, but it is expected to generate 500 megawatts of carbon-free electricity. This will represent a major step toward India’s aim to achieve 100 gigawatts of capacity by 2047, a significant boost from today’s level of approximately 9 gigawatts.

At present, nuclear power accounts for just 2% of India’s energy mix, but the carbon-free form of energy production will be a critical part of India’s decarbonization strategy. India is currently between a rock and a hard place when it comes to balancing energy security and sustainability with the nation’s humans and economic development goals. 

Despite considerable economic development in recent decades, India remains one of the poorest countries in the world, and increasing energy access is a central platform of India’s continued climb out of poverty. “Tackling the energy access gap is a critical step in meeting the country’s economic and social development ambitions, and it has been a top priority for successive Indian governments,” says a Guardian report from September of last year. 

Meeting the energy needs of all 1.47 billion people in India without majorly derailing global climate goals will require enormous investments in a wide array of traditional and innovative energy alternatives. India is already the third-largest energy consumer in the world after the United States and China, and its needs will only continue to grow. Nuclear, and next-gen nuclear such as breeder reactors, will be just one component of a diverse energy portfolio. 

While the fast breeder reactor marks a major step forward for Indian energy innovation, it likely won’t provide a silver-bullet solution to the subcontinent’s energy challenges. Many other nations have pursued the development of such models, including the United States, China, France, and South Korea, but most have abandoned the pursuit in favor of other next-gen nuclear models that they see as more promising, such as small modular reactors. However, even if this form of reactor doesn’t become the new normal for India, it will still serve the country’s overall energy ambitions, which include a diverse energy playing field. But, going forward, a more streamlined approach may be necessary. 

“India’s energy transition goals have always been an ‘all of the above’ approach, to increase capacity from fossil and non-fossil sources as part of its broader economic growth aspirations – and in response to growing demand,” Ashwini Swain, an energy transition expert at the Delhi-based Sustainable Futures Collaborative, told The Guardian. “So far the approach has mostly been ad hoc and supply-centric rather than targeted to end users, because it comes from a scarcity mindset,” Swain went on to say. “This has worked out so far, but India has reached a stage where we need a much more strategic whole systems approach to energy transition.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 08:10

Add Pakistan To Growing List Of Countries Preparing To Stockpile Shahed-Style Attack Drones

Zero Hedge -

Add Pakistan To Growing List Of Countries Preparing To Stockpile Shahed-Style Attack Drones

The Pakistan-based drone company Sysverve Aerospace can now be added to the rapidly expanding list of defense firms worldwide racing to develop, manufacture, stockpile, and potentially deploy low-cost, one-way attack drones on the modern battlefield. The proliferation of these drones across two major battlefields in Eurasia is set to permanently reshape warfare.

Pakistani-American artificial intelligence investor Amir Husain posted on X about an exhibit featuring Sysverve’s latest "Shahed-like loitering munition."

When asked on X by one user where the exhibit was being featured, Husain stated it was at the World Defense Show, held in February in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Sysverve’s website describes the company as a leader of unmanned air target systems in Pakistan and states it also develops surveillance and combat UAVs. Its contact page lists the company in Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

Last week, we revealed that India has adopted the Iranian-style drone playbook, with startup HoverIt showcasing its DIVYASTRA MK2, an advanced long-range strike drone.

In the six-week U.S.-Iran conflict, Shahed drones launched by Iran proved extraordinarily effective, knocking out data centers in surrounding Gulf states and even successfully striking U.S. bases in the region.

The U.S. announced during the conflict that it had deployed its own Iranian-style kamikaze drones.

We recently published a fascinating piece titled "Ukraine Becomes World’s AI Weapons Laboratory," which delves into Ukraine’s drone industry and offers more insight into interceptor technology.

On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces stationed in the Gulf had successfully used Ukrainian interceptor drones against Iranian Shahed drones.

The emergence of these low-cost drones on the modern battlefield began with the war between Ukraine and Russia over the past four years. There are even reports that Russia was preparing to send a massive drone shipment to Iran:

The UAE recently announced that it has developed a jet-powered, Shahed-style drone capable of speeds exceeding 650 mph.

Let’s not forget that China is producing these drones at scale to the highest bidder:

The development of these low-cost drones will be accelerated by more advanced power plants, as well as AI-enabled targeting, which could make the kill chain truly autonomous. There are already reports suggesting that AI kill chains have arrived.

It is safe to assume militaries worldwide will stockpile one-way attack drones by the millions in the years ahead. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 07:35

London Mayor Sadiq Khan Calls For A Government Social Media 'Disinformation' Unit

Zero Hedge -

London Mayor Sadiq Khan Calls For A Government Social Media 'Disinformation' Unit

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Sadiq Khan is pushing hard for a new state-backed disinformation unit to silence online criticism of London. The Mayor claims a “dark blizzard of disinformation” is undermining the city, linking it directly to offline harm, and wants government tools to force Big Tech to act – or else.

In a post on X (replies closed of course), Khan declared: “We can’t ignore the link between online disinformation and offline harm. At the Cambridge Disinformation Summit, I spoke about how the ‘outrage economy’ is eating away at the basic bonds of trust that hold our societies together – and why we need urgent action.”

He doubled down in remarks to the media, insisting: “We’re right to expect big tech to do better, but we should not rely on it. If platforms fail to act, the state must have the tools to make them. That’s why I’ll continue lobbying the government publicly and privately to take a much tougher approach.”

Khan called for “a new central body with the agility and authority to protect our democracy from disinformation, and deal with the scale and speed of this crisis. And we need more aggressive enforcement of the rules we already have. Because unless regulators like Ofcom have the power to hit companies where it hurts, they’ll keep on getting away with it.”

He added: “The outrage economy is eating away at the basic bonds of trust that hold our societies together. It isn’t just a challenge for progressives like me. It’s a challenge for anyone who believes in democracy – wherever they are.”

Khan further suggested that “The same people attacking the capital have already started targeting other cities around the world. And, in a few years’ time, I think we’ll look back on London as the canary in the coal mine. But I hope we’ll also see it as the place where the fightback began.”

Civil liberties group Big Brother Watch sounded the alarm on X:

As we recently highlighted, Khan is running a campaign to dismiss the chaotic reality on London’s streets as foreign propaganda or American disinformation:

While Khan obsesses over online narratives, the actual data from his own city tells a different story.

Every hour in London a rape is reported, and every half hour or thereabouts knife crime is reported. Yet Sadiq khan claims it is the safest city in the world and everything negative you hear is “disinformation.”

Big Brother Watch’s warning is spot on. When officials label uncomfortable truths about crime, migration and failing multiculturalism as “disinformation,” the real agenda becomes clear: protect the narrative, not the public.

This is classic surveillance-state creep dressed up as protecting democracy. Instead of fixing the streets, Khan wants to police the tweets. Free speech isn’t the problem – unchecked crime and open-borders policies that imported it are.

The fightback isn’t a new government censorship body. It’s citizens refusing to be gaslit while their city crumbles. Londoners deserve safe streets, not speech police.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/12/2026 - 07:00

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• What China Just Learned From the Iran War: Beijing watched America bomb Iran and drew its own conclusions about red lines, deterrence, and Taiwan. The lessons are not the ones Washington wants China to learn: A blockade of Taiwan would hurt the global economy more than Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. (The Atlantic)

• Job Growth on ICE: Krugman crunches the numbers on how immigration enforcement is freezing the labor market. You can’t deport workers and grow employment at the same time—pick one. (Paul Krugman) see also The Disillusioned College Grads Turning to the Labor Movement: At workplaces from Starbucks to Apple, highly educated downwardly mobile young people are organizing for better conditions. A new generation of educated workers is discovering unions, and the labor movement hasn’t been this energized in decades. The future of organized labor wears a hoodie and a master’s degree. (New Republic)

• The Most Powerful People in the World Are Obsessed With Media Again: Sam Altman is buying his favorite show, Larry Ellison is buying CNN to merge it with CBS News, Jamie Dimon is toying with launching a venture. It may mark a new era of vanity media owners. History suggests this never ends well for journalism. (Hollywood Reporter)

• After record highs, Colorado’s legal pot market hits a harsh comedown: The first state to legalize weed is now watching its market collapse. The lesson for every state legalization effort: the green rush ends and reality follows. (Washington Post)

• When Bill Ackman Vented Over $2 Million, Fellow Billionaires Rushed to Commiserate: Bill Ackman lost $2 million on something and other billionaires lined up to feel bad for him. The world’s tiniest violin is back in stock at Pershing Square. The investor revealed a family office feud. The world’s richest man came to his defense on social media. (Wall Street Journal)

• A Historian Spent 30 Years Interviewing Nazis. He Identified 12 Warning Signs of Fascism. All 12 Are Present in America Right Now: Three decades of interviews with actual Nazis distilled into a 12-point checklist. Spoiler: the checklist is fully checked. Read it and decide for yourself. (Uncensored Objection)

• The Bills That Destroyed Urban America: Joseph Lawler traces how postwar highway and housing bills gutted American cities more effectively than any wrecking ball. The planners dreamed of gleaming cities. Instead ,they brought three generations of hollowed-out downtowns and flight to the suburbs. (The New Atlantis)

• Trump’s Economy: You’re Either an Insider or a Chump: The Bulwark on the two-track economy Trump is building. The insiders trade ahead of policy announcements and the rest of us pay the bills. The grift is the point. The president is enriching friends, pardoning criminals, and impoverishing everyone else. (The Bulwark)

• Opposing ICE Might Save the Country. It Could Also Ruin Your Life: The personal cost of standing up to immigration enforcement is enormous—lost jobs, legal fees, and social ostracism. Wired profiles the people willing to pay it anyway. (Wired) see also Unmasking the Paramilitary Agents Behind Trump’s Violent Immigration Crackdown An investigation into BORTAC and BORSTAR agents and their use of force during the administration’s immigration enforcement surge. A WIRED analysis of DHS records identified dozens of specialized federal agents who used force against US civilians during the largest known deployment of its kind in US history. (Wired) see also What spending probes at DHS reveal about Kristi Noem’s time in office: Kara Voorhies, a little-known contractor, worked closely with top aide Corey Lewandowski and had wide influence over contracts under Noem’s leadership. (Washington Post)

• Cigarettes Get a Sequel: Hollywood’s ‘Cool’ Bad Habit Is Back: Smoking is making a comeback on screen after decades of public health campaigns drove it underground. Hollywood’s coolness machine never stays reformed for long. (The Ankler)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Mike Pyle, Deputy Head of BlackRock’s Portfolio Management Group (PMG) and member of the Global Executive Committee. He helps oversee $5 trillion in client assets across systematic & discretionary strategies as well as directly overseeing PMG’s hedge funds platform. He also heads the  BlackRock Investment Institute.

 

Change in Straight of Hormuz Traffic

Source: @JoshEakle

 

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To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

'I Have A Dream'...

Zero Hedge -

'I Have A Dream'...

Authored by 'no01' via Gold and Geopolitics substack,

I have a dream where politicians live next door to you...

Not metaphorically.

Literally...

The man who voted to rezone your street works three doors down. His kids go to the same school as yours. When he raises the local tax rate and the potholes don’t get fixed, he drives over those same potholes every morning. And when the community has had enough, they let him know. Loudly. Personally. The way humans have held each other accountable for most of history, before we invented the beautiful abstraction of “institutional distance”.

I know. It sounds naive.

Let me explain why I don’t think it is...

We live in an era that treats political monopoly as completely normal while losing its mind over market monopolies. Regulators drag Google into congressional hearings for owning search. They fine Microsoft for bundling browsers. They write entire legislative frameworks to prevent one company from becoming too dominant in any given market because we all understand, instinctively, what monopoly does: it kills accountability, it kills innovation, it raises prices, and it entrenches mediocrity. The monopolist has no reason to improve because you have nowhere else to go.

And then we hand the same monopoly structure to the people who control our laws, our taxes, our foreign policy, our money supply, and we call it “democracy”.

The irony is immaculate.

The European Union is the cleanest example of what happens when you take this logic to its conclusion. The European Commission - the body that actually initiates legislation - is not elected. The Parliament, which is elected, cannot propose laws. It can only approve or reject what the Commission puts in front of it. The commissioners are appointed by national governments, serve five-year terms, and answer to a structure so opaque that most Europeans couldn’t name a single one of them without Googling.

This isn’t a flaw in the design.

It IS the design.

Unaccountable by architecture.

And Brussels is just the most visible layer. NATO, the UN, the WEF, the IMF - the whole ecosystem of supranational governance operates on the same principle: decisions made by people you didn’t elect, cannot remove, and will never meet. Corruption doesn’t require evil people. It requires structures where there are no consequences for failure and no competition for alternatives. Give anyone a monopoly with no accountability and you don’t need to assume malice. Incentives do the rest.

Though, to be fair, the incentives also attract a specific type of person.

Friedrich Hayek made this point in “The Road to Serfdom”: in any large bureaucratic structure, it is not the best people who rise to the top. It is the people most willing to compromise, most comfortable with ambiguity about means versus ends, most talented at political manoeuvring.

Power selects for a particular psychology. Always has. And once you centralise enough of it into structures that nobody can vote out, you’ve created the perfect habitat for exactly the people you least want running things.

Hans-Hermann Hoppe pushed this further in “Democracy: The God That Failed”, making an argument that sounds monstrous until you actually think about it: monarchs, counterintuitively, have better incentives than democratic politicians. A king owns the country. He passes it to his heirs. His time horizon is generational - he has every reason to keep the thing functional long-term. A democratic politician has a four-year window. He doesn’t own anything. He’s a temporary caretaker with a short lease and no liability for what he leaves behind. So he extracts. He borrows against the future. He promises what cannot be delivered because he won’t be around when the bill arrives. You don’t have to agree with Hoppe’s conclusions to recognise that the time-horizon problem is real and unsolved.

The answer though in my opinion isn’t ‘monarchy’.

The answer is competition.

Hayek had a second insight (this one from “The Use of Knowledge in Society”, his 1945 essay in the American Economic Review), and it’s the one that made him famous: “The Knowledge Problem”.

Central planners fail not because they’re stupid, but because the knowledge they need is dispersed, local, contextual, and impossible to aggregate centrally. The price of tomatoes in a village market contains information no ministry of agriculture could replicate. When you centralise decisions, you lose the signal.

The same is true in politics. A bureaucrat in Brussels setting housing policy for Tallinn, Seville, and Ghent simultaneously is not making informed decisions. He’s making averaged guesses applied uniformly to situations that are not uniform. The knowledge that actually matters - what this or that neighbourhood needs, what these people value, what tradeoffs they’re willing to make - exists locally. It always has.

The economist Charles Tiebout formalised this in 1956, though the intuition is much older: municipalities that compete for residents are forced to govern well. If your city raises taxes and delivers nothing, people leave. The tax base shrinks.

The city either improves or it hollows out. Residents “vote with their feet” - a form of continuous democratic feedback that no election cycle can match, because it happens in real time and has immediate financial consequences for the state. Tiebout called it “fiscal federalism”. I’d call it capitalism applied to governance. Same principle. You have options, so the provider has to perform.

Liechtenstein wrote this into its constitution directly: any village has the right to secede from the principality by referendum. It has never happened. It doesn’t need to. The right to leave is enough to enforce good behaviour. Switzerland has 26 cantons, each with its own tax rate, its own laws, its own character. Zurich and Appenzell Innerrhoden are barely recognisable as the same country. And Switzerland, despite being landlocked, multilingual, and geographically inconvenient, consistently ranks among the most prosperous and stable places on earth. Coincidence is not the explanation.

Now add the OTHER half of the dream.

No professional politician class.

This isn’t even a new idea. The Romans had the cursus honorum - a structured series of civic roles that citizens were expected to fill as a duty, not as a career.

The Athenians used sortition, selecting officials by lottery from eligible citizens, on the logic that any competent adult could govern and that elections primarily select for rhetoric and ambition rather than competence. Switzerland still operates a militia democracy at the cantonal level - officials who hold day jobs and govern part-time. The professional politician is a modern aberration, roughly a century old, and the results speak for themselves.

The requirement I’d add: you cannot spend more than 50% of your time on political duties. The other half you work. Not consulting, not board membership, not “advising” - you do something that produces a tangible output. You build something, fix something, teach something, grow something. You stay in contact with the reality that your decisions affect.

A transport minister who commutes by train. A housing regulator who rents. A labour minister who has been hired and fired. The skin-in-the-game principle that Nassim Taleb has been banging on about for decades: those who make decisions must bear the consequences of those decisions. The current system is precisely inverted - politicians make decisions whose consequences fall entirely on others, often long after the politician in question has retired comfortably on a parliamentary pension.

And pay them accordingly. Prestige, not salary. The Romans understood this. The Swiss still understand it. When you make politics lucrative, you attract people who are primarily motivated by the lucrative. When you make it a duty, you get different candidates. Not perfect candidates - nothing produces those - but structurally different ones.

The accountability piece is the last thread, and maybe the most important.

Human scale. That’s what’s missing from every layer of modern governance above the local. When the city councillor who approved the bad zoning decision is someone you recognise at the market, something changes. Not because everyone will tar and feather him (though the option is clarifying). But because social accountability is the oldest and most effective enforcement mechanism we have. It predates courts, predates elections, predates states. You live in a community. You face the people affected by your choices. That feedback loop, compressed into institutional distance, is exactly what supranational governance destroys. Nobody in Brussels faces any community. Nobody at the IMF shops at the same supermarket as the Greeks they were advising in 2010.

The counterarguments are real and worth taking seriously for thirty seconds.

  • Defence: small states are vulnerable. True - but there’s a difference between voluntary defensive alliances and permanent supranational governments. NATO started as one and became the other. You can coordinate on specific shared threats without surrendering legislative sovereignty. Switzerland manages it fine.

  • Race to the bottom on standards: if states compete, won’t they all rush to the lowest tax, weakest regulation, most exploitable environment? Sometimes. Singapore didn’t. Switzerland didn’t. Liechtenstein didn’t. Competition also produces race to the top - the record is mixed, and the assumption that centralisation produces good standards is contradicted by every agricultural subsidy regime in EU history.

  • Not everyone can move: valid, and the most serious objection. Foot-voting privileges the mobile. But the competitive pressure benefits even those who stay, because the government that loses mobile residents to better-governed neighbours has immediate incentive to improve. You don’t have to leave for the dynamic to work. You just have to be able to leave.

  • Global problems need global solutions: pandemics, climate, nuclear proliferation. Coordination on specific, defined problems with voluntary treaty structures is not the same thing as permanent supranational government with legislative power and no democratic accountability. We managed to coordinate on nuclear non-proliferation without building a world government. The argument proves too much.

My dream ain’t a utopia.

My dream is incentives that work instead of incentives that reliably produce what we currently have.

I have a dream where the man who raised your taxes has to look you in the eye at the weekend.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 23:20

New Iran Leadership More Extreme, Israeli Intelligence Concludes

Zero Hedge -

New Iran Leadership More Extreme, Israeli Intelligence Concludes

In what should not at all be a surprise to anyone who has been awake and observant over the past 20+ years of America's military interventions in the Middle East, the Israeli Army and intelligence officials have concluded that Iran's news leadership is more extreme than the previous one.

The IDF delivered a closed-door intelligence briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Thursday, which involved presenting this finding, according to The Times of Israel.

via Majlis

Iran's new leadership consists of members of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) which are now frequently described as far more ideologically rigid than the former political leadership - a development which was entirely predictable.

The slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba has not been seen in public since the US-Israeli attacks began, but he is also said to be hardline than his father. And of course, this current crop of leaders have either lost family or been wounded in the strikes - giving them more incentive to take a rigid stance against Washington.

Still, NeoCon warmongers have been at times repeating old Iraq war, Bush era talking points of "they will greet us as liberators". 

This certainly didn't happen in either Iraq or Afghanistan, and in the latter country the Taliban is now in complete control despite a more than two-decade long US coalition occupation and quagmire. America's 'nation-building' only produced a failed state followed by greater Taliban ascendancy and control.

In many cases, the very same officials advocating for regime change in Iran were on board with all the foreign policy failures of the past, also including Syrian and Libya.

The Trump administration itself in the opening days of the bombing campaign acted as if suddenly masses of people would rise up and overthrow the Islamic Republic and its long-standing institutions.

Yet the government has not fallen, and still President Trump has lately claimed that Iran's losses of dozens of senior civilian and military leaders is tantamount to "regime change". This has not changed facts on the ground.

Vice President JD Vance traveled Friday to Pakistan for high-level talks with Iranian officials, and reports say that some 70 Iranians are traveling with the Tehran team to present a 'unified front'. Talks are expected into Sunday, and they entered with contrasting demands which appear very far apart.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 22:45

Pakistani Warplanes Land In Saudi Arabia For Start Of Mutual Defense Pact

Zero Hedge -

Pakistani Warplanes Land In Saudi Arabia For Start Of Mutual Defense Pact

Via The Cradle

A Pakistani military force arrived at Saudi Arabia's King Abdulaziz Air Base on Saturday, as part of a strategic defense pact between the two countries, the kingdom's defense ministry has announced.

The Pakistani force includes air force fighter jets and support aircraft. It was sent to Saudi Arabia to "enhance joint military cooperation, raise operational readiness, and support security and stability in the region," the ministry's statement said.

Pakistan Air Force image

The military deployment arrived following five weeks of US-Israeli attacks on Iran, and as ceasefire talks take place in Islamabad.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a strategic defense agreement last year involving joint deployments, intelligence sharing, and coordinated responses to regional threats.

The pact commits both states to treat any attack on one as an attack on both, allowing the Gulf kingdom to benefit from the protection afforded by Pakistan's nuclear weapons arsenal.

In January, Pakistani F-16 fighter aircraft participated in a multinational air combat exercise in Saudi Arabia. The Spears of Victory-2026 exercise also involved military forces from France, Italy, Greece, Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan, the UK, and the US.

Riyadh and Islamabad have a history of close military cooperation dating back to the 1960's. During the 1991 Gulf War, Pakistan sent troops to defend the Saudi kingdom from a possible Iraqi invasion. In return, Pakistan has benefited from Saudi financial and military support.

On Saturday, Turkish media reported that Saudi Arabia and Qatar will provide Pakistan with $5 billion in financial assistance to help shore up Islamabad's dwindling foreign currency reserves, which currently stand at about $16.4 billion.

The development comes as the UAE is requiring Pakistan to repay a $3.5 billion debt by the end of the month. Pakistan's reserves have come under additional pressure recently, thanks to rising costs for imported fuel resulting from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The $5 billion payment was announced following a meeting between Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed bin Abdullah al-Jadaan and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday night in Islamabad.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 22:10

Car-Shopping Websites Report Uptick In EV Interest Following Gasoline Price Shock

Zero Hedge -

Car-Shopping Websites Report Uptick In EV Interest Following Gasoline Price Shock

March brought the biggest fuel price shock Americans have experienced on record, or at least according to AAA data going back to the early 2000s.

A fuel price shock changes consumer behavior, especially for low-income households, by forcing folks to drive less, combine trips, cancel discretionary travel, or shift to carpooling and public transit.

For those who have the financial flexibility to do so, a fuel price shock may push some consumers toward smaller cars, hybrids, and EVs and away from large SUVs and trucks, because fuel economy suddenly matters much more.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a $4-per-gallon national average for gasoline, a politically sensitive level, is the threshold at which some consumers are beginning to think about EVs again.

Online car-shopping platforms such as Cars.com and Edmunds have reported a modest uptick in EV interest among users on their platforms in recent weeks. 

Edmunds pointed out that interest in EVs on its website has returned to where it was before federal tax incentives expired late last year.

"In the short term, a lot of Americans, and this has nothing to do with regulations, are coming back to EVs because of the cost of ownership," Hyundai Motor Chief Executive José Muñoz told the WSJ. "Basically, the fuel costs are making them change their decision."

Muñoz said that EVs are finding a place in the driveways of households in states like California because it makes economic sense to commute to work during the week in EVs rather than gasoline-powered cars. 

He said the thinking in some households is: "I have one car from Monday to Friday, another car for the weekend."

We must point out that far-left states like California suffer from state-killing climate policies and terrible energy policies that are crushing households on the pocketbook level. 

Data from Cox Automotive shows that EV sales jumped 12% in the first quarter as a flood of off-lease EVs swamped the market, pushing prices lower and making them more affordable.

Edmunds data show that EVs accounted for roughly 6.2% of new-car sales in March, up from 6% in February, but this is noticeably down from September, when EVs accounted for 11.5% of sales. Higher EV sales last year were mostly driven by consumers seeing that federal tax credits were expiring at the end of the year, think of it as demand pulled forward.

Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, said the surge in gasoline and diesel prices at the pump during the six-week U.S.-Iran conflict led to "an uptick in consideration" of EVs. She said driving habits are hard to change, considering Americans enjoy the luxury of large SUVs and trucks.

Meanwhile, Chinese EV exports soared 140% in March, driven by surging demand outside the US amid Gulf-related energy shocks. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 19:15

Climate Organization Behind Anti-ICE Protests Is Leading May 1 School Walkout Plan, Parent Group Reports

Zero Hedge -

Climate Organization Behind Anti-ICE Protests Is Leading May 1 School Walkout Plan, Parent Group Reports

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

One of the main organizations behind the recent protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations is encouraging children to walk out of class en masse next month to help promote its agenda, which includes achieving what it said are “Eco-socialism, [a] multi-racial democracy, and Green New Deal legislation,” according to a April 8 report by representatives of parent group Defending Education.

Organized by the Sunrise Movement, hundreds of young climate activists march to the White House to demand that U.S. President Joe Biden work to make the Green New Deal into law in Washington, DC, on June 28, 2021. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

The Sunrise Movement, during its March 17 online membership meeting, called on schools to “train up” employees and students to disrupt the federal government ahead of planned May 1 “May Day” protests as part of an ongoing “political revolution” to “structurally change the foundations of this country,” according to slides Defending Education, a nonprofit opposing indoctrination in classrooms, obtained from a tipster who attended the meeting.

The Sunrise Movement, according to the slides and its website, describes itself as an anti-President Donald Trump “climate revolution” group that advocates socialism, supports a rainbow coalition of the multi-racial working class, and calls for an end to the “billionaire” two-party political system.

In addition to mass school walkouts, the organization is also calling for more disruptions to Hilton hotels, which have housed ICE officers, according to the slides. Past actions included calling for boycotts of the hotel chain and engaging in “wide awake” events where protestors gathered outside of Hilton-branded hotels and made as much noise as possible to prevent ICE officers—and everyone else staying there—from sleeping.

Another slide illustrates a domino effect that starts with the ideological conversion of students and young people and spreads to teachers, customer service workers, city service workers, factory service workers, shipping and transportation workers, and ultimately “military and police defections.”

“They have zero reservations about using children to advance their political ideology,” Rhyen Staley, Defending Education research director, told The Epoch Times. “These kids are being used for their propaganda.”

The Sunrise Movement was frequently listed in an earlier report produced by Staley that identified 357 protests and walkouts at middle schools and high schools so far this year. He said the organization, backed by wealthy donors, recruits students via social media and provides signs used at the protests.

The slide presentation is not currently on the Sunrise Movement’s website, but the information noted in it is contained in different pages throughout the site, including a “student rise-up” guide.

“May Day 2026 is our chance to practice mass non-cooperation, prove our power so we can pick bigger fights, and set the movement’s agenda with clear demands,” the guide says.

“On May Day 2026, students at hundreds of schools are walking out, rising up, and disrupting business as usual.”

Staley anticipates participation from K-12 students across the country, especially in Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and California. Most of them, he said, don’t necessarily agree with or understand the ideology they’ll be walking out for; it’s just a chance to get out of class.

He previously told The Epoch Times that teacher unions are connected to public school protests nationwide.

Becky Pringle, president of the National Education Association (NEA) teachers’ union, appeared in a Sunrise Movement video two days before the Jan. 30 “National Day of Action” coordinated by the coalition NationalShutdown.org.

“On behalf of the education professionals who belong to the NEA ... thank you, Sunrise, for standing on the front lines in Minneapolis and in so many cities across our nation, demanding justice in all forms,” Pringle said in the video.

Staley said these events exacerbate what he said is an ongoing discipline crisis in public schools. Districts might not have updated policies to address walkouts or delegate responsibility to teachers, who might only deduct class participation points with no further discipline for skipping class without an excused absence. School officials often don’t understand how freedom of speech protections apply in school settings and fear they’ll be sued for First Amendment violations if they don’t allow students to participate in walkouts.

“They don’t want nastygrams [from attorneys] and the bad attention,” he said. “They’d rather deal with the fallout from just a few parents afterward.”

Safety is another concern, given the heightened fear of terrorism. A massive May 1 mobilization of children is a dangerous idea right now, Staley said.

Defending Education urges parents to talk with their children about the consequences of skipping classes to promote politics they don’t necessarily support. Teachers can also use this current event as a teaching moment and challenge students to state their views in writing as if they were submitting a letter to Congress or their local newspaper.

“[Students’] responsibility is to be as educated as possible,” he said, “so [they belong] in a classroom.”

The Epoch Times reached out to the Sunrise Movement for comment but did not hear back by publication time.

Janice Hisle, Savannah Hulsey Pointer, and Darlene McCormick Sanchez contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 18:40

It's A MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ World And We're Just Living In It

Zero Hedge -

It's A MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ World And We're Just Living In It

Authored by Rick Moran via PJMedia.com,

What is MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+? It might be a new, super-strong password. Maybe it's a Gen-Whatever code-like thing that's sweeping the internet, like "6-7" or something.

If only it could be that mundane.

In fact, MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ is an all-inclusive, all-encompassing, balls-to-the-wall, slam bang, wham-bam-thank-you-ma'am acronym for the totality of the gender bending, sexually "unique" population of Canada. 

For the record, as Jim Treacher helpfully points out, it stands for "Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls, Two-Spirit, Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, Questioning, Intersex, Asexual, and "additional identities ("+").

The excitement was started by a Canadian New Democratic Party member of parliament, Leah Gazan, who complained that not enough money was being spent to "deal with the ongoing genocide of MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+."

Budgeting for each and every identity, preference, and fantasy spirit in the MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ community would blow up the Canadian budget. 

I fondly recall when sexual preference identities were simple: LGB and maybe T, XYZ, believe you me. It was easy. It was a simpler time then. We didn't have to worry about offending someone by using the wrong pronoun. We didn't have to worry about making some poor, disturbed "T" or "Q" explode in tears from being misgendered.  

It would be so much easier (and we'd be less likely to offend) if the MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ "community" would just walk around with name tags identifying which gender they are, what their sexual identity is, and most importantly, what pronouns they prefer to be referred to.

Yes, that's a joke. No Nazi "Star of David" references, please.

Not that I'd use them. But since misgendering is going to be an Olympic sport in 2030, it would be helpful to know who we should insult. 

Treacher tried and failed to keep a straight face in reporting on this phenomenon.

Okay, for real, this is a serious topic. You don’t want to see women kidnapped and murdered.

Not most women, anyway. I mean, there are names that come to mind…

But no. Nobody should go through that.

Mostly.

And of course, since that’s such a long acronym and that woman just rattled it off like it’s a normal thing to say, people are having some fun with it today. “Got my new password!” That sort of thing.

There’s a British comedian named Damian Slash who has perfected a sort of straight-faced satire of… liberal excesses, let’s put it that way. Here he is explaining why MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ is no joke.

The internet being the internet, there was a slanderous fake news take on this story that claimed Canada was updating its LGBTQ+ acronym to MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+.

Pink News, whose goal is to "empower generations to embrace and shape the future - making the world a gayer place," says that simply isn't true.

"She [Gazan] used MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ as a catch-all term," says Pink News. 

"Catch-all?" Really? That's a pretty wide net to use as a "catch-all." 

"Various social media sites began reporting that Canada has now officially updated the LGBTQ+ acronym to MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+, which isn’t the case," we're informed by Pink News.

 It's impossible to parody leftists who are blissfully unaware of their own stupidity.

Okay, so why is this so annoying? Why does this bug me so much? Why is liberalism so irritating?

Because that’s what’s going on here. It’s not about making fun of people who are in trouble. It’s not about making fun of these women.

It’s about not just being able to say that. That these women are in trouble. They need help. Just say that they’re missing women. They’re possibly murdered. Just say that.

But that’s not inclusive.

Precisely. If this really were about saving lives, they wouldn't use code that's impossible to say with a straight face or highfalutin "all-inclusive" descriptions of what these people's preferences are when it comes to who they love or prefer to sleep with.

It's pretentious bull. And they do their cause no good by employing acronyms solely to be "inclusive" while failing to see it as the problem.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 17:30

Texas To Face $700 Million In Federal Penalties For SNAP Errors Through 2027

Zero Hedge -

Texas To Face $700 Million In Federal Penalties For SNAP Errors Through 2027

Authored by Sylvia Xu via The Epoch Times,

Texas is expected to pay $708 million more by 2027 to the federal government in penalties for erroneous distributions from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

The state officials released the cost in a presentation to the Senate Committee on Health and Human Services on April 8.

The state payment error rate was estimated to be nearly 9 percent in fiscal year 2025, totaling $627 million in erroneous payments.

Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Texas will need to share an additional food stamps program cost of $708 million, 10 percent of the state’s total program benefits, based on its error rate, beginning October 2027.

Currently, the federal government fully funds the food stamps program, while states only need to pay half of the administrative expenses.

In fiscal year 2024, Texas received nearly $7 billion in federal funding and paid roughly $470 million for administrative costs.

Starting in October 2026, the states will need to share the administration costs at a rate of 75 percent. By 2027, Texas is expected to pay about $826 million more after adding in administrative fees of $117 million.

To avoid that result, Texas needs to bring its error rate down to 6 percent before the fiscal year ends this September.

In Texas, more than 3.2 million residents benefit from the food stamps program as of December 2025, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

A family of four can receive a maximum of $994 per month on a Lone Star Card, which can be used like a debit card at any store that accepts SNAP.

Starting on April 1, SNAP recipients cannot buy candy or sweetened drinks in Texas with their Lone Star Cards.

Improper Payments

The federal government allocated nearly $100 billion to the food stamps program in fiscal year 2024; however, roughly $11 billion of that total was attributed to improper disbursement.

The food stamp error rate doesn’t come from fraud by people receiving the benefits, but from states making mistakes in determining who gets benefits and how much they receive.

Mistakes arise when beneficiaries forget to report changes in income or circumstances, or when government offices commit errors during case processing, according to the Texas Health and Human Services.

Food stamp errors accounted for 7 percent of the approximately $162 billion in improper payments recorded across 68 federal programs in fiscal year 2024, according to a report from the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Since fiscal year 2003, cumulative federal improper payments have amounted to an estimated $2.8 trillion. The actual amount of improper payments may be significantly higher, according to the report.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 16:20

Three Supertankers Carrying Iraqi And Saudi Crude Sail Through The Strait Of Hormuz

Zero Hedge -

Three Supertankers Carrying Iraqi And Saudi Crude Sail Through The Strait Of Hormuz

The wait is over: after the Persian Gulf side of the Hormuz Strait had turned into a bit of a parking lot late last week as tankers piled up hoping to use the ceasefire and make the crossing, two Chinese supertankers loaded with crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz hours after a Greek vessel moved through the waterway, marking a significant uptick in oil shipping traffic. It represents the biggest day of oil exits through Hormuz since the war caused traffic through the waterway to all but halt six weeks ago. More importantly, none of the ships are carrying Iranian oil or have obvious, direct links to the country.

The two Chinese supertankers are the Cospearl Lake and the He Rong Hai.  The Greek one is the Serifos. The Serifos and the He Rong Hai loaded their cargoes in Saudi Arabia, while the Cospearl Lake did so in Iraq, the tracking data show. 

All three tankers sailed eastward via south of Iran’s Larak Island, a new route outlined by Iran’s navy last week. The duo were in the Gulf of Oman by Saturday morning, ship-tracking data shows.

The two Chinese supertankers are the first from the Asian nation observed taking barrels out of Persian Gulf, a benefit for Beijing but also underscoring that the country has also been squeezed by the conflict. There’s also a third Chinese tanker, the Yuan Hua Hu, which hasn’t been signaling on Saturday, that had been waiting close by the first two before they moved to depart the Persian Gulf. 

The ships’ journeys were widely watched by marine and oil industry analysts as a sign of potential uptick for the traffic through the strait. Only two bulk carriers were allowed to pass on Friday, the fewest so far in April, according S&P Global Market Intelligence.

While the exits are significant, in oil flow terms, they are still way below peace-time levels: The three crossing tankers between them have a transport capacity of about 6 million barrels of crude. In addition, Iran, the only country really sending barrels through, exported at a rate of about 1.7 million barrels a day last month. That would imply roughly half the normal rate of shipments through the waterway — and only on a single day. 

Iran has said that vessels are allowed to sail through the waterway, but that they must get permission to do so. All three tankers followed a northerly route through the strait that has been demanded by Tehran. That path passes through Iranian waters and along the coasts of Qeshm and Larak Islands and is well away from the traditional Hormuz shipping lanes that hug the southern coast of the waterway.

The Greek tanker was signaling for Malacca in Malaysia, whose media reported on Friday a permission for the country’s freighters to depart. Malacca is also a waypoint for ships going elsewhere in Asia. 

Almost all traffic through the waterway, which normally handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and a similar portion of liquefied natural gas, ground to a halt within a day of the war starting on Feb. 28.

The reopening of Hormuz is critical to global oil trade because its closure has resulted in the loss of millions of barrels of supply to mostly Asian markets. A resumption would alleviate pressure on increasingly tight physical markets everywhere, and send prices plunging. The US and Iran are set to hold peace talks in Islamabad in the coming days.

* * *

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 15:45

Why Is China's Embassy In D.C. Hardening Security Perimeter With Barbed Wire

Zero Hedge -

Why Is China's Embassy In D.C. Hardening Security Perimeter With Barbed Wire

Washington, D.C.-focused local outlet Popville, short for Prince of Petworth, posted several images showing barbed wire being installed around the security perimeter of the Chinese Embassy.

The photos appear to show at least four workers installing the barbed wire atop an already hardened perimeter wall of block and iron fencing. 

Embassies in Washington face security risks, but the sudden decision to further harden the Chinese compound raises obvious questions: whether Beijing is responding to a specific threat, anticipating protests or unrest nearby, or preparing for the arrival of a senior official or foreign delegation.

We should also note that activist networks aligned with pro-China and Marxist groups have called for May 1 general strike actions aimed at disrupting the U.S. economy. It remains unclear whether the embassy's sudden security hardening is connected to those planned demonstrations or to some other threat stream.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 13:25

Orban Warns "We Could Now Lose Everything": Sunday's Hungarian Elections Have Profound Implications For Europe

Zero Hedge -

Orban Warns "We Could Now Lose Everything": Sunday's Hungarian Elections Have Profound Implications For Europe

As Hungarians head to the polls on Sunday, April 12, 2026, the country stands at a historic inflection point. For the first time since Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party swept back into power in 2010, a credible challenger - Péter Magyar and his Tisza party - has a genuine shot at ending 16 years of what Orbán proudly calls his "illiberal laboratory." In a final campaign rally, Orbán warned supporters they are choosing "not just a government, but the fate of the country" and could "now lose everything we have built together."

Bluntly put the election is a referendum on the durability of nationalist populism in Europe, the future of EU integration, energy security amid the Ukraine war, transatlantic conservative alliances under Trump 2.0, and even the fate of billions in Chinese investment that have reshaped Hungarian industry.

Right now, it looks like Magyar has it in the bag, so read on for the implications:

//--> //--> //--> Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Yes 72% · No 28%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

As Goldman notes, independent polls, seat projections, and prediction markets all point to a likely Tisza victory - potentially with the two-thirds supermajority needed to rewrite the constitution. Markets have been pricing it in for over a year, yet the stakes could hardly be higher, and the outcome remains fluid until the ballots are counted. A Fidesz upset or narrow hold would reverberate from Brussels to Beijing, from Kyiv to Washington. This is the "Battle for Hungary" - and its ripples could redefine the continent’s political fault lines, as noted by Andrew Korybko. 

The Two-Man Race: Orbán’s Empire vs. Magyar’s Surge

Orbán, 62, has dominated Hungarian politics since 2010, crafting a model of "illiberal democracy" that mixes nationalist rhetoric, state-orchestrated economic control, and defiance of EU norms.

He positioned Hungary as a bulwark against mass migration, gender ideology, and Brussels overreach - exporting the playbook to allies like Donald Trump. Under his watch, Fidesz built an electoral machine that delivered supermajorities in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, despite never exceeding roughly 54% of the vote, thanks to gerrymandering, diaspora voting, and first-past-the-post districts.

Enter Péter Magyar, 43, a former Fidesz insider turned insurgent.

A lawyer and ex-husband of a former justice minister, Magyar burst onto the scene in 2024 after a dramatic break with the party, railing against corruption, cronyism, and economic mismanagement. His Tisza party has consolidated the fragmented opposition into a genuine two-party contest. Magyar campaigns on restoring rule of law, unlocking frozen EU funds, and delivering economic relief without sacrificing sovereignty. He is explicitly targeting the two-thirds supermajority (133 of 199 seats) to repeal Fidesz’s "Cardinal Acts" and constitutional changes.

The numbers tell the story. Long-term polling charts show Fidesz’s support eroding from peaks near 48% in 2024 to the low 30s–low 40s today, while Tisza has rocketed from the mid-20s to 50–58% among decided voters.

Taking a 'Naive' Average of All Polls Suggests Tisza Will Receive Most Votes, But Fall Short of 50%

Independent pollsters like Medián consistently show Tisza at 55–58% and Fidesz at 35–38%, with "Other" parties collapsing into single digits. 

On Polymarket, Péter Magyar is trading at 72% to become the next Prime Minister (versus 28% for Viktor Orbán), with over $62 million in trading volume. The "Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner" market gives Tisza a 75% probability of winning the most seats and forming the next government (Fidesz at 26%), with roughly $60 million traded.

//--> //--> //--> Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Yes 75% · No 26%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

Even accounting for the system’s built-in advantages for incumbents - 106 single-member FPTP districts, strong rural and Romanian-diaspora support for Fidesz - the market consensus strongly favors a decisive shift in power.

The Domestic Reckoning: Economy, Corruption, and Voter Fatigue

Hungary’s voters are not marching to the polls in a vacuum. Beneath the ideological battle lies raw economic pain. As Goldman notes further, cumulative price rises of 40% since 2021 have hammered households despite inflation cooling to +1.4%. Growth has stagnated. Corruption perceptions rank Hungary as the EU’s most graft-prone member, per Transparency International. Many Hungarians see Orbán’s system - subsidies, tax breaks, and special deals - as having enriched insiders while ordinary people footed the bill for the cost-of-living crisis.

Orbán has countered by highlighting 16 years of achievements - job creation, pension increases, and border barriers to halt illegal immigration - and warned that losing power would mean Hungarians "lose everything we have built together."

A Tisza victory would likely deliver immediate relief: the unlocking of roughly €20 billion in frozen EU funds, contingent on judicial and anti-corruption reforms. Magyar has pledged a credible path to euro adoption by 2030, which would stabilize the forint and lower borrowing costs long-term. A supermajority would let Tisza dismantle the "Cardinal Acts" that entrenched Fidesz power over media, elections, pensions, and taxation.

As Korybko notes, the emotional undercurrent runs deeper. Orbán’s defenders credit him with shielding Hungary from the worst of the Ukraine war fallout - keeping Russian energy flowing, avoiding direct involvement, and preserving sovereignty. Many Chinese business owners in Hungary quietly echo that view: they grumble about bribes and cronyism but prefer the "devil they know" because "at least things get done," according to SCMP. 

How Hungarian Elections Work

Voters cast two ballots: one for a local candidate (106 seats via first-past-the-post) and one for a national party list (93 seats via proportional representation). A simple majority elects the prime minister and passes ordinary laws; two-thirds is required for constitutional amendments and Cardinal Acts. 

Ballots open at 06:00 CEST and close at 19:00 CEST on Sunday. Counting begins immediately; a clear winner typically emerges election night, with official certification roughly one week later. Recounts are possible if margins are razor-thin. Turnout will be decisive: high participation historically favors challengers riding waves of discontent.

Geopolitical Earthquake: From Brussels to Beijing

Europe and the EU

Orbán has been the bloc’s most stubborn spoiler - vetoing Ukraine aid packages, blocking rule-of-law sanctions, and slowing federalization. A Tisza win would remove that veto leverage overnight. Brussels-friendly governance could accelerate EU integration, restore Hungary’s access to cohesion funds, and align Budapest with mainstream European policy.

Ukraine

Kyiv has clashed repeatedly with Orbán over energy imports from Russia and reluctance to arm Ukraine. Ukrainian pressure tactics - including weaponizing the Druzhba pipeline - have failed to move him. A

Ukraine hates Hungary too, but only because Orban refuses to arm it, continues purchasing energy from Russia, and has occasionally obstructed EU funding for this former Soviet Republic. In response, Ukraine has weaponized the Druzhba oil pipeline from Russia upon which Hungary relies to a large degree to pressure him into reversing his policies, but to no avail. Ukraine also colludes with the Hungarian opposition, which is now Ukraine’s and the EU’s joint proxy, in their Russiagate conspiracy theories. -Korybko

Magyar government would likely soften Hungary’s stance, easing EU-Ukraine funding bottlenecks and reducing pipeline friction.

United States and Trump 2.0

The international right has rallied behind Orbán. Former President Donald Trump endorsed him on social media, calling him "a truly strong and determined leader" with "a proven record of outstanding results" and a "true friend, a fighter, and a winner."  U.S. Vice President JD Vance visited Budapest and sharply criticized Brussels for "unprecedented interference" in the election process. A Fidesz hold would bolster that transatlantic populist axis; a Tisza victory would be a setback, signaling that even the strongest illiberal outpost can fall to domestic economic grievances.

European Populist Allies

Orbán has also received strong backing from key figures on the European right. France’s Marine Le Pen praised his stance on the Ukraine war as "very brave," Italy’s Matteo Salvini framed the vote as a contest over Europe’s future and national sovereignty versus centralized EU control, and Germany’s AfD co-leader Alice Weidel voiced her support.

Russia

Moscow’s stake is modest but real: Orbán’s pragmatic energy deals and occasional obstruction of anti-Russia measures have been valuable. Putin sees Hungary as a potential future bridge for EU-Russia détente once the Ukraine war ends. Russia has avoided overt meddling, but a Tisza shift would narrow that window.

Out of the four foreign parties with stakes in the “Battle for Hungary”, Russia’s are the least. It supports Orban’s pragmatic approach to the Ukrainian Conflict and views Hungary as a valuable partner in Europe. More than that, however, Putin believes that Orban can help repair Russian-EU relations sometime after their proxy war in Ukraine ends. While certainly game-changing if it occurs, this scenario is admittedly unlikely, ergo why Russia isn’t meddling in his support despite conspiracy theories to the contrary. -Korybko

China

Billions in Chinese FDI - most visibly CATL’s massive battery plant in Debrecen - have become politically radioactive. Banners reading "No battery, no deal," "Debrecen belongs to Hungarians," and "Chinese, go home" dot the city. Chinese firms face local backlash over imported labor, environmental risks, and meager local economic spillovers. Tisza has been measured - calling for "pragmatic, mutually beneficial" ties while demanding stricter EU-compliant rules on labor, environment, and taxes. Projects already under construction are unlikely to be seized, but a new government would pivot from "seduction" (subsidies and visas) to enforcement. 

Market Verdict: The Forint Has Already Spoken

Investors have been positioned for a Tisza outcome since early 2025. The forint has strengthened in anticipation. Goldman's EM desk outlines clear scenarios:

  • Tisza win (base case): EUR/HUF –2%, swaps –20 to –30 bps, credit spreads –15 to –25 tighter.
  • Tisza + supermajority: EUR/HUF –4%, swaps –30 to –40 bps, spreads –25 to –40 tighter (+ €20bn EU funds unlock). 
  • Fidesz hold / upset: EUR/HUF +4%, swaps +40 to +50 bps, spreads +25 to +40 wider.

FX volatility desks price roughly 3% gap risk around the event, with positioning long HUF but some profit-taking near 375. 

Aftermath Scenarios: Victory, Narrow Hold, or Chaos

A decisive Tisza victory would mark the end of the Orbán era and a constitutional reset. A narrow Fidesz government or blocking minority could trigger exactly the Color Revolution fears some analysts warn of - EU- and Ukraine-backed protests framed around "Russian meddling," exactly the kind of destabilization Orbán has accused opponents of preparing. Hungarians themselves hold the greatest stake. They will live with the consequences - economic relief or continued stagnation, EU integration or defiant sovereignty, pragmatic Chinese investment or stricter oversight. 

Why Europe - and the World - Should Watch Closely

This is more than a Hungarian election. It is a stress test for the durability of the populist wave that Orbán helped pioneer. A Tisza supermajority would deliver the clearest repudiation yet of illiberal governance in Europe, emboldening Brussels and weakening nationalist holdouts elsewhere. It would signal that economic pain and corruption fatigue can trump sovereignty rhetoric even in the EU’s most defiant member.

Conversely, an Orbán hold - against the polling tide - would validate the model’s resilience and give fresh oxygen to conservative-nationalist forces from Warsaw to Washington.

Sunday’s result will not just decide Hungary’s next prime minister. It could redraw the map of European populism, recalibrate great-power alignments, and determine whether the "illiberal laboratory" survives or becomes a historical footnote. Polls close at 19:00 CEST. By nightfall, we may know whether the Battle for Hungary ends in revolution - or resilience. The continent is watching.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 12:15

Watch: Axe-Wielding Man Attacks U.S. C-130 Cargo Plane At Irish Airport

Zero Hedge -

Watch: Axe-Wielding Man Attacks U.S. C-130 Cargo Plane At Irish Airport

Footage posted on X appears to show a deranged man hammering away on top of a U.S. Air Force C-130H Hercules parked at Shannon Airport on Ireland's west coast on Friday.

"A man breached security at Shannon Airport in Ireland, climbed onto a parked C-130 Hercules, and damaged it with a tool," the Clash Report wrote on X.

Local media outlet Clare FM described the incident as a "security breach," with airport operations briefly suspended while police arrested "the person, understood to be a male," who was "seen in the vicinity of a United States Air Force C-130 Hercules transport aircraft that had been parked on a remote taxiway at the airport."

"A man breached security at Shannon Airport in Ireland. It's understood that the person climbed onto the wing of the aircraft and caused damage to the fuselage with an implement, possibly an axe, while it was parked," the outlet said.

In recent months, at least one far-left group has attacked a critical supply chain node supporting the F-35 stealth fighter jet program in the UK. There are no indications yet from authorities as to whether the C-130 attacker was part of a left-wing threat network

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 11:05

Swalwell Denies Rape Allegations - Refuses to Drop Out Of Governor's Race Despite Democrat Exodus

Zero Hedge -

Swalwell Denies Rape Allegations - Refuses to Drop Out Of Governor's Race Despite Democrat Exodus

The latest:

• Eric Swalwell’s California governor campaign collapsed after sexual assault allegations.

• Former staffer alleged harassment plus two assaults while she was intoxicated.

• Four women total have accused Swalwell of sexual misconduct.

• Swalwell denies all claims as false and politically motivated.

• Major Democratic allies withdrew support and called for him to exit the race.

- Update (as of Saturday morning): Since the San Francisco Chronicle story and initial fallout (including Hakeem Jeffries’ call for Swalwell to step down), Swalwell released a video across social media strongly denying the allegations as “flat false” and confirming he is not dropping out of the governor’s race. In the video Swalwell specifically referred to the accusations as coming from “anonymous” people, even though at least one woman (the primary accuser) has come forward publicly and given an on-camera interview to CNN.

CNN’s follow-up confirmed four women total have now alleged misconduct - including the named Chronicle/CNN accuser (former staffer) plus three others citing unwanted touching, intoxicated encounters, and unsolicited explicit messages or nude photos. Additional prominent Democrats (Sen. Adam Schiff, campaign co-chairs Reps. Jimmy Gomez and Adam Gray) withdrew endorsements and joined calls for Swalwell to exit the race and resign from Congress. More unions and rival candidates echoed those demands.

The campaign saw continued staff departures, quietly removed its endorsements page (now a 404 error), and faces legal threats against accusers. Prediction markets price his win odds at roughly 4-5% and show ~86%+ odds he drops out before the June primary. Republicans (including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna) have filed motions to expel him from the House. No formal investigations or lawsuits have been publicly filed yet, but the political damage appears severe and possibly irreversible.

Eric Swalwell's chances of becoming California's next corrupt governor cratered on Friday after detailed sexual assault allegations from a former district-office staffer were published in the San Francisco Chronicle. 

Polymarket odds of becoming California's next governor are at 4% as of this writing...

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes 5% · No 96%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

* * *

The stunning drop - visible in real time on platforms such as Polymarket, where “Yes” contracts on Swalwell's victory traded as high as $1,100 earlier in the day before cratering to pennies - reflects a campaign that appears to be in free fall just weeks before ballots drop in the June primary. Traders piled into the “No” side at 96 cents, effectively pricing in the congressman’s political demise in the nation’s largest state.

The Allegations

A woman who worked in Swalwell's Castro Valley district office for nearly two years, beginning around 2019 when she was 21, alleged that Swalwell sexually harassed her as soon as she started, that they had some consensual encounters while she was on staff, and that he twice sexually assaulted her when she was too intoxicated to consent - once in a 2019 hotel room and again in 2024 after she had left his office. The woman, who is not named in the story, told the Chronicle she felt pressured by his position of power and has lived in fear of coming forward.

"She said Swalwell, who is married and 17 years her senior, tried to kiss her in her car when she drove him home from a donor meeting one night. Driving him to another event weeks later, she said Swalwell pulled out his penis in the car and asked her to perform oral sex on him. She said she did so in a parking lot.

In September 2019, the woman said, Swalwell invited her out for drinks and she became so severely intoxicated that she does not remember the rest of the night. She said she woke up naked in Swalwell’s hotel bed and could feel the effect of vaginal intercourse. She said Swalwell distanced himself from her afterward and the relationship faded." -The Chronicle

Swalwell immediately rejected the claims as “false” ...hang on... 

...and politically motivated, calling them a last-ditch effort to kneecap the Democratic primary leader. “For nearly 20 years, I have served the public — as a prosecutor and a congressman - and have always protected women,” he said in a statement. “I will defend myself with the facts and where necessary bring legal action.” His attorney sent a cease-and-desist letter to the accuser’s counsel threatening defamation litigation.

The allegations landed as the campaign was already reeling from weeks of unverified social-media rumors about inappropriate conduct with female staffers. By Friday, the fallout was swift and brutal.

At least four senior aides had resigned in anticipation of the story, according to multiple Democratic sources familiar with the situation. Unions that had endorsed Swalwell, including the powerful UFCW Western States Council, withdrew their support and called on him to suspend his campaign. “The allegations … are extremely detailed, troubling, and gut-wrenching,” the union said in a statement.

Even longtime ally Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) publicly withdrew his endorsement. House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who had been neutral in the race, issued a carefully worded statement Friday night: “This extremely sensitive matter must be appropriately investigated with full transparency and accountability. As I discussed with Congressman Swalwell, it is clear that is best done outside of a gubernatorial campaign.”

* * * Update: House Speaker Hakeem Jeffries has called for Swalwell to step down, as well as for an investigation.

Swalwell’s campaign manager, Yardena Wolf - his longtime chief of staff who moved over to run the gubernatorial operation - had personally briefed a small group of online influencers earlier in the week on the initial rumors, sticking to the campaign’s line that the claims were “false, outrageous” and that no NDAs or ethics complaints existed. Wolf has not issued a new public statement since the Chronicle story dropped, and a campaign spokesperson was unreachable Friday night amid the staff exodus.

The political math in California has shifted overnight. Just weeks ago, Emerson College polling showed Swalwell leading a fragmented Democratic field with 17 percent support and 25 percent undecided. Prediction markets briefly pegged his chances above 60 percent. He had positioned himself as the Democrat best equipped to counter the Trump administration from Sacramento, leveraging his national profile and prosecutorial background.

Now the race is wide open. Rivals who once struggled for attention are suddenly the story, while progressive voices that once gave Swalwell the benefit of the doubt are demanding full investigations - or his immediate exit from the race and even Congress.

The timing has fueled intense partisan finger-pointing. Swalwell allies describe the allegations as a coordinated hit job engineered by flailing opponents and amplified by conservative voices. Supporters of the accuser counter that the details are credible, long-suppressed and too serious to ignore for a candidate seeking the state’s highest office.

Whatever the ultimate legal or electoral verdict, the market verdict is already in. The blue line on the betting charts has turned into a cliff - and Eric Swalwell’s path to the governor’s mansion has all but vanished.

Needless to say, not even Chinese spies will be interested in Eric after this.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 10:56

IMF Warns Iran War Will Slow Global Growth, Raise Inflation, And Worsen Food Insecurity

Zero Hedge -

IMF Warns Iran War Will Slow Global Growth, Raise Inflation, And Worsen Food Insecurity

Submitted by OilPrice.com

Severe fuel shortages, hunger, and spiralling inflation will be some of the consequences of the Iran war as the head of the International Monetary Fund said that it would leave “scarring effects” on the global economy.  

In a speech by Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, global policymakers were warned that trade disruption across the Middle East over the last month would lead to lower growth and higher inflation.

The impact of the war was also predicted to be uneven between different countries depending on levels of energy imports and their proximity to the war, according to the world’s foremost economic organisation.

Georgieva’s address on Thursday morning underlined the consequences of what one month of the US and Israel’s war with Iran, and the subsequent hold-up in trading flows across the Strait of Hormuz, would mean for the world economy. 

She warned that the most severe fuel disruptions will come for islands in the Pacific Ocean, with the ripple effects then spreading around the world. 

She also said that 45 million more people would suffer from food insecurity, while there were “warning lights flashing red” for fuel shortages in several countries. 

Inflation expectations could also “break anchor and ignite a costly inflation process”, though Georgieva said long-run confidence in price growth among households and businesses presented “very good and very important” readings. 

IMF: Fuel shortages to lead to ‘ripple effects’

The IMF chief added that infrastructure damage, particularly at Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas complex that is critical for energy supplies in Asia, would lead to “no neat and clean return to the status quo”. 

The IMF will update its economic forecasts next week, which will feature specific changes on the outlook for the UK economy. 

Georgieva asserted that the world economy would suffer from lower growth and warned decision-makers “not to make things worse”. 

“I appeal to all countries to reject go-it-alone actions—export controls, price controls, and so on—that can further upset global conditions,” she said. 

“Don’t pour gasoline on the fire.”

The IMF’s forecast revisions next week will be the second major update on the global economic outlook after the OECD, a Paris-based think tank, said the UK economy would be harder hit than any other G7 country by the war. 

It suggested the UK would suffer the second-lowest level of growth this year and the second-highest level of inflation after the US. 

There are renewed hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and allow trade and production to resume, but economists and policymakers have warned that the full reopening will take weeks, given the risk of further escalation and the wobbly terms of the current ceasefire agreement.

President Trump and Iranian leadership officials have floated the prospect of imposing a toll on ships passing through the critical trading route. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper has urged the US administration to resist slapping a tax on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 

The UK economy is also predicted to suffer the worst impacts of the war later in the year after the energy price shock from higher oil and gas prices passes through into household bills from July.

Tyler Durden Sat, 04/11/2026 - 10:30

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