Squeezed For Decades, America's Working Class Is Finally Up Against The Wall

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The net result is America's working class is up against the wall, maxed out.

Let's start by defining the working class in a meaningful way rather than by tossing around meaningless income metrics which implicitly suggest that exceeding some semi-arbitrary income bracket will magically lift a working class household into the middle class.

In the real world, in terms of class status it doesn't matter whether the household income is $30,000 or $130,000; what matters is 1) ownership of assets that have bubbled higher in the Everything Bubble which then provide a buffer of wealth that can be tapped when misfortune strikes, and 2) a cost of living that is consistently and significantly lower than net income, enabling regular savings.

In other words, a household earning $130,000 that owns negligible assets / wealth buffers and consumes every dollar of income just to service its debts and pay all the other bills is working class, while the household earning $30,000 that owns meaningful assets and frugally gets by on $20,000 a year is middle class. The household that earns $130,000 (generally considered a middle class income) but has a net worth is $2 million, no debt and an annual cost of living of $90,000 is upper middle class.

Income by itself misses what's truly important: wealth buffers and a lifestyle that leaves surplus income to be consistently saved and invested.

While we focus on the alarming leap in the cost of living over the past three years, we lose focus on the larger issue: America's working class has been squeezed for decades by the relentless decline in the purchasing power of wages. I explained how to calculate this in We Feel Poorer Because We Are Poorer: Here's Proof (December 4, 2023).

The devastating decline in the purchasing power of wages since 1975 is beyond dispute. As I noted in the above post: "The status quo cheerleaders in the Ministry of Truth ignore the $5,000 annual cost increases in essentials while trumpeting the $100 decline in occasional discretionary purchases. Your rent costs you 100 more hours of work, but you save $100 on airfare, so it all evens out. Um, no."

This chart reveals that the decades of hyper-globalization-hyper-financialization transferred trillions of dollars from wage earners to owners of capital. I explained this in Labor Rising: Will Class Identity Finally Matter Again? (May 1, 2024).

As the purchasing power of wages fell and costs increased, it became more difficult to save earnings and climb the ladder of social mobility. The net result is the bottom 50%'s share of the nation's financial wealth has plummeted to a rounding error / signal noise: 2.6%. A great many of the bottom 80% households have little financial wealth to serve as buffers when misfortune strikes.

Many of the bottom 90% of households own a family home....

But "ownership" doesn't measure equity or mortgage debt. This chart shows that the bottom 90% "own" the majority of debt that drains income, while the wealthy own income-producing assets:

Meanwhile, with interest rates rising, the cost of servicing debts is soaring: since the majority of debt is "owned" by the working class and middle class, the higher interest payments burden the many, not the few.

The working class households which don't own a home are being squeezed by sharply higher rents: as for buying a house now, that is a luxury only affordable to the top layer of American households.

The net result is America's working class is up against the wall, maxed out: whatever lines of credit that were available have been tapped (credit cards, "buy now, pay later" credit, etc.) and wage increases are soaked up immediately by higher costs for virtually everything.

The ladder of universally accessible social mobility has been broken. The stresses generated are already visible, but the political-social consequences are still ahead, and once they manifest, economic earthquakes will follow.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 17:00

China's Broadest Credit Metric Just Turned Negative For The First Time Since 2005

China has lots of economic problems (even if the market has been surprisingly generous in the past 4 months and allowed Chinese stocks to surge despite any actual economic rebound or recovery), but this is a new one.

It is hardly a secret that for much of the past 15 years, and certainly in the aftermath of the Lehman collapse, it was China's unstoppable credit creation that lifted the world out of a deflationary shock time and again, and indeed it is a fact that as long as we can remember, China's broadest credit aggregate, Total Social Financing, was always positive, come rain, blizzard, or shina.

But in a stunning reversal, the latest credit data published over the weekend by the PBOC revealed that for the first time since late 2005 - nearly 20 years ago - China's Total Social Financing turned negative!

The drop was thanks to a combination of weak loan demand and slow pace of bond issuance, but whatever the reason, there is a bigger problem: China can't grow the economy without injecting billions (or trillions) of credit into it. Yet, without credit demand - at any interest rate or price - all the money that China does inject will go into various asset bubbles, which means we are back at square one.

Here are the details:

• New CNY loans: RMB 730bn in April (RMB loans to the real economy: RMB 331bn) vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 914bn
• Outstanding CNY loan growth: 9.6% yoy in April (+8.0% mom sa ann); March: 9.6% yoy (+8.7% mom sa ann).
• Total social financing (TSF flow, reported): RMB -199bn in April, vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 941bn.
• TSF stock growth: 8.3% yoy in April, vs. 8.7% in March. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock: 3.5% in April (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), vs. 8.2% in March.
• M2: 7.2% yoy in April (-1.6% mom sa ann estimated by GS) vs. Bloomberg consensus: 8.3% yoy, GS forecast: 8.0% yoy. March: 8.3% yoy (+6.4% mom sa ann).

According to Goldman, it wasn't just the negative print in TSF that conveyed weak credit demand: so did the composition of RMB loan data which showed household loans contracted in April, and corporate loans expanded mainly due to a surge in bill financing. As the bank further adds, the broad weakness in money and credit data likely reflects

1. the focus of policymakers on optimizing the structure and effectiveness of loan extension;
2. more stringent measures to tackle “idle money circulation” in the financial system (e.g., corporates’ borrowing for redeposits).
3. deposit outflows from banks to financial markets (particularly the bond market).

Now a closer look at the narrative behnid the numbers:

1. Total social financing (TSF) flows turned negative in April, the first time since October 2005, significantly below market expectations. The disappointing TSF data was driven by weak loan demand and slow pace of bond issuance. Bill financing surged as banks tried to fill in unused loan quota, which reduced the amount of undiscounted bankers’ acceptance bills. Shadow banking credit (undiscounted bankers’ acceptance bills, trust loans, entrusted loans) declined by RMB 246bn vs. an expansion of RMB 223bn in March. Bond net issuance fell sharply in April compared with March: Government bond net issuance moderated to RMB 159bn vs. RMB 478bn in March, while corporate bond net issuance was negative in April after seasonal adjustment (RMB -88bn vs. RMB 260bn in March). In year-over-year terms, TSF stock growth slowed to 8.3% from 8.7% in March. The sequential growth of TSF stock moderated to 3.5% mom sa annualized in April from 8.2% in March. For
2. New CNY loans missed market expectations notably as well in April, and the sequential growth of RMB loans slowed to 8.0% mom sa annualized from 8.7% in March. That said, year-over-year growth of RMB loans was flat at 9.6% in April. The composition of new loans showed weak credit demand as household loans contracted and bill financing grew much faster than medium-to-long term corporate loans. After Goldman's seasonal adjustment, household loans contracted by -0.4% month-over-month annualized in April, vs +5.6% in March. Bill financing rose 70.4% month-over-month annualized in April (vs. -3.2% in March), while corporate medium-to-long term loans growth accelerated modestly to 11.8% month-over-month annualized in April (vs. 9.5% in March). The sizeable gap between “total new loans” (which was RMB 730bn in April) and the “new RMB loan under TSF” (which was RMB 331bn in April) was mainly due to the RMB 261bn expansion of loans to non-bank financial institutions.
3. M2 growth slowed materially to 7.2% yoy in April (vs. 8.3% in March). On a sequential basis, M2 declined by 1.6% month-over-month annualized, vs +6.4% in March. Year-over-year growth of M1 turned negative in April, the first time since January 2022. The Financial News, a media outlet affiliated with PBOC, reported that the slowdown of M2 growth was driven by three factors: 1) deposit outflows from banks to non-bank financial institutions for higher returns of wealth management products, thanks to falling bond yields and lower deposit rates (more on this shortly); 2) more stringent measures to address “idle money circulation” (e.g., corporates’ borrowing for redeposits); 3) lower incentives for local governments to boost deposit/loan growth due to changes in accounting methods of value-added in financial sectors (in an effort by the central government to improve the GDP measurement).
4. 4. April’s credit and money data consistently pointed to weak credit demand. Recent policy communications suggest that the PBOC continued to focus on enhancing monetary policy transmission and improving the efficiency of loan usage. Looking ahead, the growth of new CNY loans and M2 may gradually slow down further, as the PBOC highlighted weakening relationship between economic growth and credit expansion. Taken together with soft year-to-date growth of TSF stock, we revise down our TSF stock growth forecast to 9.5% for 2024 (vs. 10.0% previously). In light of upcoming acceleration of government bond issuance, we continue to expect two more RRR cuts and one policy rate cut through the remainder of this year.

Looking ahead, Goldman expects government bond issuance to pick up in late Q2, and the PBOC to facilitate the government bond issuance by increasing interbank liquidity. We continue to forecast one 25bp RRR cut in Q2.

While economists are trying to goal seek this latest disappointment out of China, the market has already priced it in, and overnight Chinese government bonds gained, as the poor credit data fueled expectation of more monetary policy easing and allowed traders to shrug off debt supply concerns. The offshore yuan touched its weakest level in over a week.
Bonds. And with credit demand plunging 10Y yields are dumping just fast; here are some more from Bloomberg:

• China plans to start selling the first batch of its 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) of ultra-long special central government bonds on Friday.
• Weakness in credit print “adds to the possibility of another RRR cut" coming before end-2Q, likely coinciding with the special bond issuance and a step-up of local government bond issuance for the remainder of 2Q,” Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Stanchard Chartered Bank said

10-year bond yields fell to 2.29% versus previous close at 2.34% on Saturday; the domestic interbank bond market was open on May 11 due to holiday adjustment

Finally, China’s credit in April shrank for the first time as government bond sales slowed, while loan expansion was worse than expected in a sign of weak demand.

Bottom line: the yuan is dumping, credit is not only stalling but outright contracting, and while stocks are modestly higher as traders hope thay finally bottom-ticked the rebound, the collapsing Chinese yields signal that much more deflation is coming unless Beijing can arrest it. In either case, China is now facing a toxic cocktail of two equally bad choices: i) devalue the currency in hopes of kickstarting exports (since nothing else works), or ii) do nothing and watch as the economy spontaneously collapses in on itself and leads to a global economic shockwave that forces all developed central banks to quickly turn on the money printer.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 16:40

"If Mr. Trump Is Hitler, Think Of Newsom As Godzilla With Hair Gel..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

Monster Mash-Up

“My take is that the US is incredibly unstable right now, and could go in almost any imaginable direction between now and the election, as well as some unimaginable ones.”

- John Michael Greer

Did you notice that it took just a little bit of internal chaos to alert the Party of Chaos that maybe chaos wasn’t the greatest thing to be the party of? Something went awry the past two weeks when thousands of creamy coeds on every campus across America donned the keffiyeh and, in effect, demanded submission to history’s most notorious misogynist cult. It struck a most cacophonous chord among progressives, like Kumbaya as orchestrated by Karlheinz Stockhausen. To awaken from Wokery, you see, is a brutal shock to the brain.

And so, over the weekend every big dog in the Democratic Party’s doghouse came out barking against the current direction of the Democratic Party — that is, over an electoral cliff, lemming-style. Bill Clinton lamented at the Milken Conference that:

“the political rewards of grievance politics and name-calling and being negative have been so immense that nobody could give’em up. That’s what this whole shebang has come down to now.”

James Carville had a veritable nervous breakdown on X:

“It’s going the wrong way, it’s not working. Everything we’re throwing is spaghetti at a wall, and none of it is sticking, me included.”

Fareed Zakaria over on CNN confessed that:

“None of this is playing out the way I thought it would.”

Gee, really?

None of them could bring themselves to actually name the doddering donkey in the room, “Joe Biden.”

Nor did they dare call out the stage manager behind the old Joe-from-Scranton show, Barack Obama, not exactly coasting into his fourth term, as expected.

They’re all surprised the way things are turning out. And, of course, “JB” himself did not come out of his Rehoboth Beach hidey-hole after declaring no more bullets and missiles for you, Israel, which landed amongst the Party’s donor class like a tear-gas bomb.

Hillary Clinton popped up on the Morning Joe show wearing royal purple to remind the audience that Donald Trump is another Hitler, threatening “the sanctity of the Constitution” and adding “maybe this will be our last election.”

If she’s putting herself up as possible last-minute replacement for the ever more ghostly “Joe Biden,” she was not so crass as to say so. The party will have to come pleading to her on its knees, hoping she can once again muster the legions of indignant women to oppose the wicked Golden Golem of Greatness — who was, that very day, on display in a Manhattan courtroom having to endure the jibes of the paradigmatic wronged woman, porn-star Stormy Daniels.

What else have they got, really? Gavin Newsom?

If Mr. Trump is Hitler, then think of Mr. Newsom as Godzilla with hair gel. Imagine what he could do to the whole USA after trashing California, as he has managed to do. Sorry to tell you, but in an election contest between Hitler and Godzilla, Hitler would probably win. It’s a rock-paper-scissors deal. Any other ringers they might throw in? The only name that ever comes up is Illinois governor JB Pritzker, who actually looks a bit like King Kong, and has certainly done a Kong-job on Chicago. And, by the way, that’s where the Democrats’ convention will happen in August. Wouldn’t it be something to see King Kong versus Godzilla there?

All of which is to say that something beyond desperation has set in amongst the Democrats, an emotion so dire that Elizabeth Kubler Ross couldn’t find a word for it on her transect of grief. They don’t know what to do at this point. They have only a few months to figure it out and there is more at stake than a mere turnover in administrative duties. The shadow of the gibbet looms in their nightmares. Their lawfare schtick was one thing, a kind of fun-and-games compared to what’s coming at them: the actual law, trials for more serious crimes than mere book-keeping errors and mis-pricing real estate valuations. Think: sedition, treason, bribery and tack on conspiracy to commit all the above.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump provided a further shock to the awakening Woke with a Saturday evening fan meetup down-the-shore in Wildwood, New Jersey. Somewhere between eighty to a hundred-thousand voters showed up in what is said to be among the bluest states in the country. Bruce Springsteen must have been weeping into his avocado toast over in Red Bank. Then, across the Sunday morning news digests there was talk about “a landslide win,” and even more amazed chatter about RINOs and Never-Trumpers returning to the folds of the Golden Golem’s heavenly garment, as though Mr. Trump had virtually Jeezified himself through a year of tribulation.

Will the Democrats just go through the motions the next six months, awaiting execution? Naw. One way or another, they are going to jam Hillary into this psychodrama.

Stay tuned for a couple of medical emergencies.

First, Kamala Harris will resign on account of a sudden “health problem” that prevents her from attending to her duties. Cancer will be implied but not spelled out. “Joe Biden” will appoint HRC of the Purple Pantsuit as veep.

Three weeks later, “JB” will submit his resignation for medical reasons, and nobody will need to ask why.

Voila! The first woman president, she-whose-turn-has-finally-come, flies triumphantly out of the Democratic Convention in her hometown, Chicago, like Rodan the Flying Reptile emerging from the mythic volcano, cawing her battle-cry across the land. The Golden Golem answers with a roar. The great re-match is on!

*  *  *

Support his blog by visiting Jim’s Patreon Page or Substack

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 16:20

Hedge Funds Hammered As 'Roaring Kitty' Returns; Bitcoin & Black Gold Bid

The return of 'Roaring Kitty' sent GME soaring higher (up 110% at its highs)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and prompted squeezes/panic-covering across the 'most shorted' names and 'retail favorites (memes)' soared...

Source: Bloomberg

As John Flood noted from Goldman's trading desk: "GS Most Short Rolling basket in focus having a top 5 move over the past 5 Years (3.3std)."

Source: Bloomberg

Volume/activity has been abysmal recently and today was no better with overall activity levels -7% vs the trailing two weeks average.

• HF buy skew sticks out @ +16.6% unsurprisingly, that’s 97th %-ile & the highest level in 6wks.  Covering most acute in Info Tech with a buy skew @ +20% and short ratio of only 34%.  HCare, Consumer, REITs & Comms Svcs all net to buy; Macro Products & Energy (likely PR hedges) net for sale

• LOs are 15% better for sale with just Cons Disc and Fins as small to buy.  The most concentrated selling is in Macro Products & Info Tech, with modest supply across HCare, Indust, Comms Svcs & Energy

Most notably, the weakest sleeves of the market are surging higher – Most Short Basket up +3 sigmas // YOLO basket up +3 sigmas // China Internet basket up +2 sigmas

GameStop “stonks” surged up to 119% after a cryptic post on X from Keith Gill, aka 'Roaring Kitty', his first since June 2021. Some investors interpreted it to mean that Gill is coming back into action (BBG).

S&P is unchanged but NOT all is calm underneath the surface. HF community under pressure on this Manic Monday. We are seeing a considerable amount of covering by the fast money community in both single stocks and macro products during the first 3 hours of trading.

Keep an eye on the following thematics as it feels like this could get worse before it gets better...

'HF VIP Longs vs Most Short' was down 7% - the biggest drop since June 2021 (today’s move is a 4SD over last 1 year of trading)

Source: Bloomberg

Mega Cap Tech vs Non Profitable Tech down 4% (today’s move is a 3SD over last year of trading)

Long Momentum down 4% (today’s move is a 4 SD over last year of trading)

In context, today saw half of all indicative hedge fund gains year-to-date have been cut in half...

Source: Bloomberg

Here we go again: explosion in most shorted names means worst day for hedge funds since Dec 2023. Gross unwinds, margin calls, stay puft marshmallow man all to follow pic.twitter.com/yxl8220Nau

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 13, 2024

The jump in inflation expectations (and household debt stress) from The New York Fed's survey did provide some selling pressure on the day however - as well as Chevron's decline (driven by reports that influential proxy giant ISS recommended Hess investors abstain from voting on the proposed $53 billion acquisition).

By the close, the S&P was unchanged, The Dow was the laggard (down around 0.2%), while Small Caps outperformed and Nasdaq held on to some gains (both well off the day's highs)...

Treasuries were bid today (but traded in a narrow range), ending the day down only 1bp...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the day flat, recovering overnight losses...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ripped back up to $63,000 today, erasing Friday's plunge losses...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold gave back more than half of last week's gains today, back below $2340...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil bounced back off $78 (WTI) - around its 100DMA - recovering most of Friday's losses...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this trend is not Powell's (or Biden's) friend...

Source: Bloomberg

'Growth' data continues to surprise to the downside, and 'inflation' data surprise to the upside. What do we call that Jay? Clue: it rhymes with blag-station.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 16:00

Turkey Treating Over 1,000 Wounded Hamas Members In Hospitals: Erdogan

The NATO country with the second largest military in the alliance has just admitted to aiding and abetting a US-designated terror organization.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in surprisingly frank statements acknowledged that Turkey is currently treating over 1,000 Hamas members in various hospitals across the country. In the remarks he stressed that Turkey does not consider them terrorists, but as part of a "resistance movement" against Israel.

Via AFP

Also surprising is that such an admission, which is sure to anger other Western allies, came as Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was on an official visit with Erdogan in the capital city of Ankara.

"Hamas is a resistance organization whose lands have been occupied since 1947, and it has protected its lands after the occupation," Erdoğan said, clashing with Greece's view of the militant organization currently fighting Israel.

"I do not see Hamas as a terrorist organization. On the contrary, I see Hamas as people struggling to protect their own land and their own people," Erdogan added.

According to more from the exchange:

Speaking at a press conference after talks with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Ankara, Erdogan also said he was saddened by the Greek view that deems Hamas a terrorist organization.

Greece and Turkey cannot agree on all issues related to the war in Gaza but they can agree that violence must end and a long-term ceasefire is needed, Mitsotakis said.

“Let’s agree to disagree,” Mitsotakis said, responding to Erdogan.

Erdogan at one point told his Greek counterpart that terrorist organizations "should have no place in the region's future" and that there is "growing unity" on this, but that Turkey differs on the definition when it comes to Hamas.

But, Erdogan explained, "we are in agreement that a ground operation in Rafah would be unacceptable."

Since the Gaza War started in the wake of the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack, Erdogan has been a constant critic of both Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu personally. 

Erdogan corrects Greek PM Mitsotakis, says “Hamas isn’t a terror group, it is an insurgent group that is trying to protect its territories that have been occupied since 1947” pic.twitter.com/U0mrRdjEcG

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) May 13, 2024

Turkey has also cut trade with Israel over what it called the "worsening humanitarian tragedy" currently unfolding. Israel has in turn accused Erdogan of being a "dictator". 

As for treating hardline jihadists in hospitals, this also happened during the war in Syria, but in that case even Israel at one point had been giving medical aid to anti-Assad militants on its soil, most of which were linked to al-Qaeda.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 15:45

What's The Inflation Rate Under Biden Vs 7 Previous Presidents?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Voters seem angry about inflation despite economists telling us how great things are. A few pictures explain.

Why Biden Is Losing on the Economy

The Wall Street Journal comments on Why Biden Is Losing on the Economy

Democrats and the press keep telling Americans that they don’t know how good they have it. The U.S. economy is great, Bidenomics is the reason, and don’t worry, be happy. Yet the voters, those numbskulls, keep telling pollsters they don’t feel the boom and they don’t approve of President Biden’s economic performance.

If our friends on the left want to stop berating voters and admit reality, they might look at the chart nearby from Dan Clifton of Strategas Research Partners. It compares the average annual consumer-price inflation rate across the first term of the last eight presidencies. As you can see, Mr. Biden’s average inflation rate of 5.5% is second only to Jimmy Carter’s average rate of 10.3%, and Mr. Carter wasn’t re-elected.

The President keeps telling voters that inflation has fallen on his watch to 3.5% from that peak, but voters remember how low inflation was for some 40 years before Mr. Biden took office and went on his historic spending spree. Americans can also see that prices aren’t falling back to where they were when Mr. Trump was President. They know their average real earnings have declined since Mr. Biden took office.

Voters aren’t stupid, and this is why they don’t like Mr. Biden’s economic record.

It's not the hand that Biden was dealt that mattered. It's how he played the hand he was dealt.

1. The biggest fiscal stimulus in the world, totally unwarranted
2. Student debt cancellation
3. Absurd energy policy
4. Rent moratoriums
5 The IRA

All massively inflationary

— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) May 11, 2024

The Journal explains what I have been talking about for months.

But the article misses a big point. Neither the Fed nor economists in general view housing prices as inflation. The economic illiterates do not count asset prices in general as inflation.

Home Prices Hit New Record High, Don’t Worry

The Case-Shiller national home price index hit a new high in February. That’s the latest data. Economists don’t count this as inflation.

Case-Shiller national and 10-city indexes via St. Louis Fed, OER, CPI, and Rent from the BLS

On May 2, I commented Home Prices Hit New Record High, Don’t Worry, It’s Not Inflation

Not Inflation?!

Economists, including the Fed, consider homes a capital expense, not a consumer expense.

As a result, they all ignore economic bubbles and blatantly obvious inflation on grounds it’s not consumer inflation. This has gotten the Fed into trouble at least three times. The first was the dot-com bubble, then the Great Recession housing bubble and now.

It’s really pathetic when you make the same major mistake over and over and over. It’s a result of groupthink.

Inflation Since January 1, 2020

• CPI: 20.3%

• OER (Owners’ Equivalent Rent): 22.1%

• Rent: 22.5%

• Case-Shiller National Home Prices: 47.2%

Allegedly, the latter has nothing to do with inflation. And adding insult to injury for those seeking to buy a home, mortgage rates have sky rocketed.

Mortgage News Daily Average Mortgage Rates

Image courtesy of Mortgage News Daily, anecdotes by Mish

On January 1, 2020 the mortgage rate was 3.76. Now it’s 7.16% with home prices up 47.2%.

But hey, let’s claim that this has nothing to do with inflation.

Trapped In Your House?

A New York Fed survey shows 1-year and 3-year look ahead moving expectations are at record lows.

Data download from the New York Fed, chart by Mish

On May 6, I commented Trapped In Your House? Moving Expectations Hit Record Low

The above post started some interesting discussion on Twitter. One person noted that expectations had been declining anyway.

OK but two things. From 2014 to 2022 expectations fell from 20.8 percent to 16.4 percent. A decline of 4.4 percentage points in 8 years. In the next two years, expectations fell another three percentage points,

Trapped offers a reasonable explanation for the acceleration.

Second, those are “expectations” not actual results. Unfortunately, we will not have 2024 data for two more years.

According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, moving rates for Americans declined from 12.8% in 2021 to 12.6% in 2022. Thus, more people thought they would move than actually did.

I suggest 2023 and 2024 will be lower for obvious reasons. But if for some reason it’s higher it will be more renters moving around, not homeowners.

We do not have the precise data that proves homeowners are trapped, but we do have strong enough data to suggest that is the case.

Young Voters Bail on Biden

On March 7, I commented Polls Show Biden is Losing Black, Hispanic, and Young Voters to Trump

Q: Why is Biden losing black voters and young voters?

A:Those are the groups most likely to rent. In general, those are the groups most impacted by inflation whether you count home prices or not.

People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.

On April 30, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

The economy is a very broad category that encompasses inflation, jobs, unemployment, wages, rent, and housing.

Other polls split the economy in various pieces, such as inflation and jobs. Not a single poll mentioned housing specifically.

Q: What is it that young voters really have on their minds?
A: Rent – Unaffordable Housing

I said people who rent will decide the election. One might also say young voters and blacks will decide the election. It’s really the same issue, but none of the polls framed it the way I just did.

Trump would be wise to pick a candidate who appeals to young voters and also women for the abortion issue. Trump might win even if he doesn’t.

This was a discussion among several friends of mine recently.

One friend accurately noted that VP candidates don’t swing many voters. Yep, that’s true, but even half a percentage point could swing the election. It would behoove Trump to choose wisely.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 15:25

"An Absolute Disaster": Media Freaks As Trump Dominates Battleground States

A new set of polls reveals that Donald Trump is leading President Biden in five out of six critical battleground states, as young and nonwhite voters grow increasingly dissatisfied with the current president.

The surveys, from the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer found that Trump is smoking Biden in Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, while Biden is barely clinging to Wisconsin. The top grievances among disaffected voters are cost of living, immigration, and the war in Gaza, in what the NY Times characterizes as "widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country and serious doubts about Mr. Biden’s ability to deliver major improvements to American life."

Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely.

Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters — just 13 percent — believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term, while even many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo.

...

The economy and the cost of living, however, remain the most important issues for one-quarter of voters — and a significant drag on Mr. Biden’s prospects. More than half of voters still believe that the economy is “poor,” down merely a single percentage point since November despite cooling inflation, an end to rate hikes and significant stock market gains. -NY Times

And the media is freaking out:

"AN ABSOLUTE DISASTER": President Trump post MASSIVE leads in battleground states over Crooked Joe Biden in New York Times poll.

NEVADA: Trump +13
GEORGIA: Trump +9
ARIZONA: Trump +6
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump +3
WISCONSIN: Trump +1 pic.twitter.com/f92WSa7i4l

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) May 13, 2024

In particular, Biden's impotence has "helped erode his standing among young, Black and Hispanic voters, who usually represent the foundation of any Democratic path to the presidency."

Young hispanics, for example, gave Biden more than 60% of their vote in 2020. Now, Trump and Biden are virtually tied among that demographic. Trump has also garnered over 20% of black votes according to the poll, the highest level for any Republican candidate wince the Civil Rights Act was enacted in 1964.

Because of this, Trump's strength among young and nonwhite voters has "upended the electoral map."

Based on the latest RCP Averages, this is what the map would look like if the election were held today: https://t.co/qt0zX3Gvxv pic.twitter.com/GWa0z7IC5d

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) May 13, 2024

"It is concerning to me when I keep seeing press come out of the White House where they keep saying the economy is good," according to 32-year-old Jacob Sprague of Reno, Nevada, who voted for Biden in 2020 but won't be doing so again. "That’s really weird because I’m paying more on taxes and more on groceries and more on housing and more on fuel. So that doesn’t feel good."

Even more hilarious is that nearly 20% of voters blame Biden more than Trump for the Supreme Court's 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade (what?).

Trump is polling particularly well with voters who believe that political and economic systems need to be torn down - around 15% of registered voters, with whom Trump is leading by 32 points.

Things are so bad some are convinced Biden will be replaced at the Democratic National Convention in mid-August.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 15:00

"There's A Lag In The Real Economy... And It's Hitting Now" - Ed Dowd Warns Of "Huge Credit Crisis Coming"

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Former Wall Street money manager Ed Dowd is a skillful financial analyst.  Even though he has a wildly popular book on CV19 vax deaths and injuries called “Cause Unknown,” he is now turning his attention back to the economy. 

Dowd warns the economy can fall out of bed at any time.  Dowd explains, “What’s coming up next is a credit cycle..."

"We are going to see commercial real estate go into problem mode.  There are a lot of loans that need to be rolled over in 2024 and 25.  A lot of these properties are down 80%...

There is huge credit risk coming.  The prediction of bank failures is accurate.  We are going to see, over the next 12 to 24 months, banks go belly-up.  Then, they will have to get merged with bigger banks.”

What happens to the Biden economy?  Dowd says,

“The economy is going to take a nosedive sometime in the next 12 months.  The real economy is not doing well...

The only thing that has been holding up the GDP growth is government spending. 

We are spending $1 trillion every 100 days.  That’s adding $1 trillion to the deficit. 

The only job creation is government jobs, and they don’t actually add to the economy...

Reports are coming out now that the low-income consumer is getting absolutely hammered.  McDonald’s talked about it in their most recent earnings call...

So, low-income and the middle-class are getting squeezed while the rich continue to plug along.”

Dowd told me off camera that the economy could get into trouble without warning.  Dowd explains,

“You’ve got to look at history.  In 2008 and 2009, everyone talks about the crisis, but bank failures started showing up in 2007...

I suspect as we roll through time in the real economy and the money supply issues start to hit the economy, we will see more bank failures and more businesses shut down. 

46% of small businesses are having problems paying their rent.   There is going to come a time in the next 6 to 12 months this huge shock that we saw in the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2000 bubble where massive layoffs start to happen–it’s inevitable. 

This is what happens when you crank up interest rates from 0% to 5.5%.  There is a lag in the real economy, and it’s hitting right now.  It’s only going to intensify as time goes on.

Dowd likes gold as a core asset.  He also thinks the dollar has a way to go before it tanks, but it will tank someday. 

Dowd also thinks that the CV19 bioweapon shot pushers are trying to change the narrative to admit “some deaths” happened, but the amount is small.  Dowd calls BS on that, and he thinks the death and injuries are at least 33 million in the USA alone. 

According to Dowd’s research, the CV19 vax was a criminal enterprise that murdered and seriously harmed millions.  Dowd thinks the deaths and injuries from the CV19 vax are going to get worse.  Dowd thinks Johns Hopkins and the rest of the medical community are trying to change the narrative, so they don’t get blamed for pushing a massive death and disability CV19 vax program.

There is much more in the 53-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with money manager and investment expert Ed Dowd, author of the recently updated book called “Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021, 2022 and 2023” for 5.11.24.

*  *  *

To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here

You can order Dowd’s newly updated book called “Cause Unknown” by clicking here. If you want to go to Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com, click here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 14:40

With "Exceptionalism" Like This, Who Needs Enemies?

Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,

Last weekend we suggested that “I Like My Exceptionalism to Be Exceptional” and highlighted data that was anything but exceptional. As the Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to fall, and CONsumer CONfidence showed anything but confidence, it seemed like a good idea to add to last weekend’s theme.

More on “Exceptionalism” In Jobs

Let’s start with “full-time” jobs. Full and part-time jobs come from the “Household” part of the NFP data. From my perspective, full-time jobs are more important than part-time jobs. There are certainly other views on the matter, but I prefer full-time jobs.

I find a few things “interesting” on this chart (and by interesting, I mean less than exceptional).

• Depending on the time horizon, we are below trend growth in full-time jobs (this time horizon captures that).

• We had a strong post-COVID rebound, and by March 2022 we had created 832k more full-time jobs than we had prior to the pandemic. In the over 2 years since then we have added 1.4 million full-time jobs. That is 56k per month – hardly “exceptional.”

• The high level was 134.8 million in June of 2023. That dropped to 132.9 million as of March 2024. So, in a 9-month window, where “exceptionalism” was the story, the Household Survey (which admittedly was nowhere near as strong as the Establishment Survey) showed a loss of almost 2 million full-time jobs! Last month’s Household report showed a big gain of almost 1 million full-time jobs, making the data look less bad. One can wonder (and I often do) why we even bother collecting the Household data if it is not taken seriously? Or maybe it should be?

Maybe this is one reason why the “perception” of the economy isn’t as good as the data suggests? Because we pick and choose which data people should pay attention to, that is distorting the reality of the economy most people face.

Now let’s look at the CES Net Birth-Death Model. You know the movie where they say, “you had me at hello?” Well, this “explainer” loses me at about the 2nd line. Maybe I should struggle through more carefully and try to build my own model. Many I am sure have, but I’m not sure if I could, and I definitely don’t care enough to do it. So, with that as a caveat, I often wonder about the impact this has on jobs and how accurate it really is. Maybe it is the awkward name which scares me (seriously, birth-death is the best name someone could come up with for this important component of NFP?).

Since January 2021, the Establishment Survey says we have added 8.5 million jobs, of which 3 million were generated from the birth/death model. Seems reasonable that this “plug” or calculation is about 35%.

In the past year (April 2023 to April 2024), 53% of the jobs created can be attributed to this model. 1.6 million of the 3.1 million jobs created (according to the Establishment Survey). Presumably, this data is correct, yet maybe this explains why there is a difference between the perception of the economy on many fronts, and what Wall Street touts as the “actual” data. Maybe some portion of these “estimated” jobs aren’t really jobs?

I am not sure which data series is “correct“ or which “calculations” we should place more faith in. Yes, according to the BLS, the margin for error is materially higher in the Household Survey than the Establishment Survey, but both are quite high relative to the “precision” with which the data is presented.

CONsumer CONfidence “Exceptionalism”

I’m not sure in which direction this weekend’s report would have gone had it not been for Friday’s University of Michigan report. Given the ongoing glut of weaker than expected data, and a lot of feedback on last weekend’s piece, I probably would have done the same report. But CONsumer CONfidence solidified the direction we had to go. For those of you who read the T-Report regularly, you know that I am suspicious of the validity of the CONsumer CONfidence survey (hence the double CON). But apparently the devil can quote scripture for his or her own purposes, so why can’t I?

Confidence plunged to 67 from 77 and had one of the biggest misses versus expectations of all time. Current conditions and future conditions didn’t matter – it was bad across the board. Inflation expectations (which the Fed pays attention to) seem to be “less anchored” than they were as the one- year inflation expectation jumped to 3.5% from 3.2% (the highest since November). The 10-year crept back to 3.1%. It had gotten to 3.2% in November, but other than that one print, this is tied as the highest longer-term inflation measure since this whole mess began!

I promised myself I wouldn’t use the word stagflation, since that is nowhere close to my base case, but it is increasingly difficult to dismiss the possibility. So maybe I will just say Stag and Flation and leave it at that as a way to hint that it is creeping into my scenario analysis without quite getting there.

But I digress, the one chart I want to show is the sentiment for Democrats.

University of Michigan provides the data broken down by party affiliation. I have no idea how useful that is in reality, but it is curious. There is almost always a better perception by those whose party is in charge. Any time we dip below the black line on this chart, we should be worried because that is lower than confidence was when Trump was president. We are not there yet, but it has declined to the lowest level in a year. The decline was so rapid that it raised eyebrows. Prior declines could easily be linked to COVID or to the Fed starting to unwind easy money. This one is less easy to pinpoint, especially with the cacophony of “exceptionalism” that I’m taking more notice of than I usually would.

For what it is worth, I believe the University of Michigan itself published something to the effect that they double checked the data and confirmed that it is statistically significant.

Maybe I’m just the devil quoting scripture for my own purposes, but this report (which I often dismiss) is at least somewhat troubling and doesn’t do much for the “exceptionalism.”

The Exceptional “Doctor Copper”

We are seeing the price of many commodities increase. I will highlight “Doctor Copper” as it is one of the strongest charts and is normally associated with global economic growth.

IF the rule of thumb holds, then an acceleration of copper should be indicative of increased global activity, which should benefit everyone. Let’s start with what we know:

Copper (along with other raw materials) is rising in price again, potentially sparking another round of inflation fears as commodity price increases are likely to impact either prices or margins – neither particularly appealing for markets. Let’s think about what could be driving this.

• A shift in what the world is consuming (maybe it is data) which is creating unusually large demand for specific resources. Seems plausible and would indicate some sectors should do well, but the rise in these commodities doesn’t herald a new age of global growth.

• A shift in who is consuming. India has certainly been a massive beneficiary of the shift away from manufacturing in China. I’ve posited that any real risk of a commodity inflation bubble, like we saw in the mid-2000s, would be a result of India’s rise and economic empowerment there. Could this be yet another sign of India’s growth and their need for raw materials? l like that idea, as it supports my India growth story and commodity price risk views, but it is mere conjecture (wishful thinking, even) on my part at this stage. My argument is that even if this is a part of the move, it will benefit India and not the globe.

• China finally rebounding? That is possible. It is difficult for any economy, especially one being propped up by the government, to do worse month after month. At some point there will be a rebound. Here, I would argue vehemently that a rise in commodity prices due to increased manufacturing in China is not good for many companies. It will inflate prices for components, and I’m increasingly convinced that our The Threat of Made By China 2025 understates the risk due to competition with Chinese brands.

Rising commodity prices are unlikely to be helpful from an inflation standpoint. They may be contributing to the inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey. What remains to be seen is are they reflective of an improving global landscape, or are they more tied to a theme that is unlikely to benefit domestic companies as much as in the past? It will be very interesting to see how this plays out, and I’m definitely in “trying to figure it out” mode, rather than having high conviction in how it fits my theory.

Tariff Exceptionalism

It looks like we are headed down the path of increasing tariffs. Since 2018, I was largely in support of tariffs, and I probably need to remain supportive. Back in 2018, many argued that the tariffs were going to “Start a Trade War.” My main argument in favor had been that “we’ve been in a trade war for two decades, where only 1 side fired shots.” I did miss how quickly and efficiently China would move into Mexico (as one example) to mitigate the impacts of tariffs.

But since this entire report is a backhanded “compliment” to “exceptionalism” I only want to point out the absurdity of solar panels.

• At one time the U.S. was one of the largest manufacturers of solar panels.

• The production of solar panels, for a variety of reasons, shifted to China. While cost was clearly one reason, I suspect that the “ungreen” nature of making solar panels contributed to that shift as many nations seemed to be in the “if we don’t see it, it didn’t happen” mode of thinking in terms of production that wasn’t green. China was quick to fill that market need.

• At the same time, or in parallel, we have pushed and legislated for the need to use sustainable energy, such as solar. We’ve created subsidies and rules to increase demand for solar panels.

• Now, as we need more and more energy (anything from data centers to EVs has been adding to demands on our electric grids), we will put tariffs on Chinese made solar panels. This increases the cost, potentially substantially, on something public policy is driving us towards.

It really hurts my head that over the past few decades (there is no single administration to blame), we have failed to tie together industrial policy, economic policy, and environmental policy.

Not that “free markets” were ever free, but maybe there is a lesson in here somewhere. Though, as much as I’d like that lesson to be that laissez-faire works, I suspect the lesson would be that more control works better, c’est la vie.

In any case, the trade war is ramping up. While the fight is between China and the U.S. (with countries like Germany weighing in), the battleground will likely be in markets across the globe, and I remain afraid that we are far less prepared for that than the market is currently pricing in!

Bottom Line

Lower yields. I still like 4.3% to 4.5% on 10s and am pricing in two cuts this year. I am convinced that the economic data will show signs of further weakness. What I am less convinced of, and need to reevaluate, is whether inflation can come down, or whether we’ve bottomed and are heading higher? I don’t like the notion of stagflation as a concept, but it has popped up on my radar screen. So, while I still think yields will drop, I have less conviction. If we get a drop in CPI, which seems plausible, I would probably look to fade any bond market rally on that. 

What do lower yields mean for stocks? I think we are near the end of the lower yields/Fed Put rally that has helped stocks creep higher on anemic volumes. Last week we argued that the market might “gap” from “no landing” to some form of “bumpy landing” and I think that is in the midst of occurring, which won’t support risk assets. I still prefer China and think India as an investment will continue to outperform (I think I’ve been more focused on China as it fed my “contrarianism” more than India).

Credit. Boring. Still prefer to reduce exposure to the riskiest credits but think credit will remain “boring” relative to rates or stocks.

Hope you all had a truly exceptional Happy Mother’s Day and enjoyed time with your family!

Now, we can get back to worrying about how “exceptional” or not the economy is!

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 14:00

At Least 360,000 Flee Rafah As Israel Touts 'Precision Operation' Against Biden Criticism

An estimated 360,000 Gazans have fled the southern city of Rafah as the Israel Defense Forces concentrate a ground operation on the eastern half of the city, the main UN aid agency UNRWA says. This figure is likely to grow higher by the day as IDF tanks and ground units press forward.

The official Palestinian death toll, issued by the Hamas-run Health Ministry, has surpassed 35,000 - tallied at 35,091 Gazans killed and other 78,827 wounded since Oct.7. The last 24 hours of fighting has seen 57 killed and 82 injured, according to the figures.

Anadolu Agency

Gaza's health system is "hours away" from collapse, the health ministry has told international aid groups and news outlets, due primarily to fuel shipments being not getting into the Strip amid fighting. Hospitals and clinics rely on generators to operate.

"We are just hours away from the collapse of the health system in the Gaza Strip due to the lack of the necessary fuel to operate generators in hospitals, ambulances, and (for vehicles to) transport staff," the Gaza health ministry said.

Israel has said that over the weekend it had transferred a large quantity of fuel into the Strip in order to ease the humanitarian crisis.

Ongoing pressure to minimize civilian death from the Biden administration has resulted in the Israeli side claiming it is engaged in a 'limited' ground offensive. So far the IDF appears to have cut Rafah in half and is focused on actions in the east. Specific sectors of the cities have been ordered to be evacuated, with tens of thousands of flyers having been dropped from aircraft.

In a Sunday night phone call Defense Minister Yoav Gallant sought to defend the operation, telling US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Israel is undertaking a 'precise operation'.

The readout says Gallant conveyed to the US top diplomat "developments in Gaza, including IDF operations across the Strip in the face of terror hotspots, and the precise operation in the Rafah area against remaining Hamas battalions, while securing the crossing."

"The minister expressed his appreciation to Secretary Blinken for the ongoing support provided by the US administration for Israel’s security," the readout added.

Israel “Likely” Used U.S-Supplied Weapons in Violation of International Law. That’s OK, Though, State Department Says https://t.co/SMFRB593zC by @ShawnMusgrave, @prem_thakker https://t.co/SMFRB593zC

— The Intercept (@theintercept) May 10, 2024

Blinken reportedly again conveyed the US stance which stands against a major operation in Rafah. The White House has warned it could withhold future offensive weapons from Israel, but so far it seems a mere one shipment has been confirmed as on pause.

Meanwhile major IDF operations have restarted in the north too, with Reuters describing: Israeli forces pushed deep into the ruins of Gaza's northern edge to recapture an area where they had claimed to have defeated Hamas months ago, while at the opposite end of the enclave tanks and troops pushed across a highway into Rafah. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have again taken flight.

* * *

Israel settlers have continued to attack humanitarian aid shipments entering the Strip from Israel...

Israeli right wing activists blocked aid trucks which were on their way to Gaza today at the Tarqumiya crossing in the West Bank pic.twitter.com/fUd3ywuDbr

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 13, 2024

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 13:45

Biden Calls Illegals Crossing The Border "Hispanic Voters"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a telling slip of the tongue earlier this week, Joe Biden referred to the unprecedented rise in illegal immigrants entering the US as an “influx” of “Hispanic voters.”

During an interview with a Spanish radio show, Biden was talking about the border crisis, and stated “It’s even a bigger influx now in terms of Hispanic voters, or Hispanic – Hispanic citizens, who want to become citizens.”

Listen:

In a telling slip of the tongue earlier this week, Joe Biden referred to the unprecedented rise in illegal immigrants entering the US as an "influx" of "Hispanic voters." Full report here: https://t.co/FYpTpE1j1m pic.twitter.com/ybcjVggVih

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) May 11, 2024

ILLEGAL ALIENS! Looks like Dementia Joe had a Freudian slip. He told the truth. Extremely rare for him.

— Joe Blow (@srv2000) May 10, 2024

This was always the plan.

— RingoTyler (@PKLakeDog21) May 10, 2024

Biden also ludicrously compared mass illegal immigration at the border to Irish people coming to America in the 1840s.

He said it’s “a little bit like back in the 1840s and the great exodus of Ireland, because of the famine and the way Irish Catholics were treated. They said no, no, we don’t need any more of those folks. There was a large influx.” 

Except the Irish weren't involved in human trafficking, drug smuggling, and corruption.

— Tim Shorts (@TimShortsBBQ) May 10, 2024

The difference is the Irish came her LEGALLY!

— ML (@mlvercle) May 10, 2024

“The Hispanic community is part of the future of America,” Biden further stated, adding “Twenty-eight out of every 100 students in school speak Spanish, the idea that you’re gonna ignore that? That’s our future.”

He then repeated the claim that the economy is “good” because of mass illegal immigration, and suggested anyone who disagrees is xenophobic.

“One of the reasons that we’re growing so much is we have a significant influx of immigrants coming into our country, only reason our economy’s so good. We’re not a xenophobic nation. Other nations are, we’re not, that’s why our economy is the best in the world,” he claimed.

As we highlighted yesterday, amid the unprecedented explosion in illegals entering the US, there has been a six thousand plus percent increase in Chinese nationals being encountered at the border, with over 1000 being apprehended in just the past week.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 13:25

Melinda Gates Abruptly Quits Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Melinda Gates revealed on X that she is resigning as co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, with her final day being June 7.

"After careful thought and reflection, I have decided to resign from my role as co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

My last day of work at the foundation will be June 7th."

She plans to focus on her own philanthropic efforts, supported by a $12.5 billion grant.

Gates said:

She continued:

Gates explained more about her new chapter in life: 

Let's examine the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in depth.

Here, data from the research firm Sayari shows its complexity. 

Source: Sayari

Back to Bill and Melinda, they divorced in 2021 after a 27-year marriage. 

Melinda ends her goodbye letter by saying she'll explain more about her new philanthropic efforts at a later date. 

Why the sudden split, Melinda? 

Microsoft Co-Founder Bill Gates and Melinda Gates are splitting up

Could this split have anything to do with Bill’s relationship with Epstein? https://t.co/DRNXO6wtis

— JC Oviedo (@JCOviedo6) May 3, 2021

Hmm. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 13:05

Why The Establishment Fears A Trump-Led Fed

Via SchiffGold.com,

While in office, Trump blamed the Fed for tightening monetary policy.

Now members of Trump’s team allegedly plan to give a re-elected Trump more power over the Fed, igniting panic from mainstream economists about a politicized Fed.

Our guest commentator explains why the real risk, from the establishment’s perspective, is not that Trump will turn the Fed into a political organization but that he will expose that it already is one.

The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

Discourse about the Federal Reserve is frequently full of myths, dishonest framing, and outright lies. Listen to a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell or read an article from a major outlet’s lead Fed correspondent and you’re bound to hear at least a few. For instance, it’s common for the financial press to characterize the Fed’s current conundrum as “walking a tightrope.”

It’s said that the Fed is working to guide the economy along without tipping it over into either high inflation on one side or a recession on the other.

The last couple years, we’re told, saw the economy wobble too far toward the inflation side, with the Fed now attempting to pull the economy back to the thin line of stability without tipping over too far and plunging into a recession.

But anybody who actually understands what causes recessions can tell that this framing is, at best, incredibly misleading. The Fed doesn’t prevent recessions, it directly causes them.

These days the tightrope analogy contributes to the myth that, while difficult, a recession is possible to avoid. It isn’t. All the Fed can do is delay and amplify the painful correction that earlier monetary policy made inevitable.

Another myth that has been getting more attention in past weeks is that the Fed as an organization is separate from, above, or independent from politics.

The attention follows a Wall Street Journal report alleging that members of former president Donald Trump’s team are drawing up plans to give the president more power over the Fed should Trump win the election this November. Reporters cite an internal ten-page document that argues the president should be consulted on interest-rate decisions and have the authority to fire Fed chairs before their term is up. These plans sparked panic about a politicized Fed and provoked responses from several concerned economists.

It is absurd that this needs to be spelled out, but the Fed is already a political organization. It was established by an act of Congress in 1913. Two decades later, Congress consolidated much of the Fed’s power in Washington, DC, and set up the position of chairman, who is appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate. It also created a single committee—most of which is also appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate—to direct open market operations for the entire country. Then in 1977, Congress passed another bill requiring the Fed to pursue specific policy goals.

So, a bunch of politicians created an organization and consolidated its power in Washington, DC, where a committee of government officials appointed and confirmed by politicians directs monetary policy for the entire country according to policy goals defined earlier by other politicians. And we’re supposed to consider this organization to be nonpolitical.

Moreover, the idea that the changes Trump’s team might be considering would represent a categorical change to the structure of the Federal Reserve is crazy. Fed chairs already consult with current presidential administrations through the Treasury Secretary. It’s not as if the Fed is isolated from the ambitions of the executive branch.

The real risk, from the establishment’s perspective, is not that Trump will turn the Fed into a political organization but that he will expose the fact that it already is one.

From the outset, the Federal Reserve System has represented the politicization of money and banking in the United States. It allows the government to finance its preferred programs with newly printed money and to manipulate the entire structure of the economy with centrally planned interest rates. This is great for politicians, government bureaucrats, and politically connected businesses that get the new money early. But it traps the rest of us in a recurring nightmare of unnecessary economy-wide booms and busts along with devastating, culture-destroying permanent price inflation.

The illusion of an independent, nonpolitical Fed is critical to keep the scam going.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 12:45

Even If Powell "Can't See The Stag And Can't See The Flation", Consumers Can

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Bumps and Potholes

UK Q1 GDP surprised to the upside at the end of last week to print at +0.6%, rather than the more modest 0.4% that market economists had been expecting. That means that Britain is officially out of recession. Perhaps even more importantly for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, GDP per capita grew for the first time in two years and the Governor of the Bank of England has been talking about rate cuts. The FT reports that corporate takeover activity for UK companies has hit the highest level since 2018 as international capital managers realise that UK stocks are comparatively cheap. Suddenly, everything is coming up Rishi, but that’s unlikely to save him from an electoral drubbing later in the year.

Of course, faster economic growth can in some ways be a double-edged sword. If the economy is turning over more quickly, it raises questions about inflationary pressures – which might delay those rate cuts that Governor Bailey was hinting at. In the case of the UK this might not be an issue because the stronger GDP result was driven by fixed capital formation – suggesting that businesses are investing to raise the speed limit of the economy – while households seem to have taken Huw Pill’s advice to accept that they are poorer and kept a lid on their own spending.

Over in Canada it might be a different story. Labour market figures for April showed employment growth of 90,000 in the month. That’s a mighty bounce back from the loss of 2,200 jobs in March, and well above the consensus estimate of +20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate duly fell (despite a 1-tick climb in the participation rate) to a still high 6.1%, and hourly wages growth also came in firmer than expected at 4.8% y-o-y (albeit down on March’s 5% figure).

Consequently, the 65% probability of a June rate cut that the OIS futures were suggesting last Thursday has suddenly fallen to a 45% probability. The market is still fully-priced for a cut by July, but only just.

There were further bumps in the road for the global crusade against inflation last Friday when the latest iteration of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report was released. Consumer confidence dropped like a rock, all the way from 77.2 in April to 67.4 in May. Both ‘current conditions’ and ‘future expectations’ looked grim, which perhaps suggests a “plague on both your houses” attitude to the two leading contenders for the Presidency. Crucially, 1-year inflation expectations leapt from 3.2% to 3.5%, and 5-10 year expectations (generally a low volatility number) edged higher from 3% to 3.1%. Even if Jerome Powell “can’t see the stag and can’t see the flation”, it appears that consumers can.

Powell is scheduled to speak tomorrow, but the timing presents a few potential landmines for the Fed Chief. Powell’s remarks will come after the release of April PPI figures, but ahead of the CPI report. CPI is likely to be the key point of interest for financial markets this week, but there’s also the not-insignificant issue of big new tariffs on Chinese EVs (amongst other things) expected to be announced tomorrow. The CPI numbers are expected to print at +0.4% m-o-m, as they did in March. Unfortunately, 0.4% m-o-m is incompatible with 2% annual inflation, so Powell might still be a little cagey on there whereabouts of the stag and the ‘flation.

Japan, China and Australia have lately thrown up some potholes in the road back to at-target inflation. Japanese March labour cash earning figures reported last week showed year-on-year growth of less than half the expected number. China PPI slipped further into deflation at -2.5% in April (although CPI nudged up slightly to 0.3%) and aggregate financing actually fell for the first time since 2005.

China’s housing woes are clearly ongoing, and it appears that this has started to worry Xi Jinping, who is reportedly looking at ways to protect state-owned developers that may also help to staunch the balance sheet recession being experienced by Chinese households. The long-awaited stimulus bazooka might be on the way (of sorts), but almost certainly not for private sector developers who might be too close to decadent Western-style capitalists for Xi’s liking.

The fortunes of Chinese real estate developers are of particular interest to Australia, since bulk commodities used in the production of steel and concrete (iron ore, coking coal) sit atop the list of Australia’s major exports.

The Australian Government will deliver a budget tomorrow night - Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third, and likely his second successive surplus. The now traditional pre-budget leaks to the media suggest a more growth-oriented fiscal impulse which would ordinarily be a concern for the RBA - who inexplicably maintained their neutral outlook on interest rates last week, despite big upward revisions in their inflation forecasts and downward revisions to unemployment forecasts.

One suspects that the RBA dead-batted the strong Q1 inflation print of a week earlier with the benefit of advance warning from Treasury that budget initiatives would substantially reduce measured CPI. Treasury is reportedly expecting CPI to be back below 3% by the end of the year as new subsidies for electricity bills, rent assistance and childcare shift the burden of payment from households to government. Those increased subsidies will mechanically reduce measured CPI, but they won’t reduce underlying cost pressures, which will instead be paid through the tax system. Happily, the budget will also include income tax cuts.

So, there have been a few bumps to inflation here, and a few unanticipated drops there. Ultimately the US CPI report will be the main game of the week as markets look for continued signs of an upward trend in price pressures.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 11:30

Household Finance Fears Worst Since COVID As Inflation Expectations Surged In April, NY Fed Survey Finds

Well if Fed Chair Powell couldn't see the 'flation' before, perhaps he can now...

After flatlining around 3.,0% for the last four months the median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.3%, according to The New York Fed's April Survey of Consumer Expectations.

They also increased to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon, while decreasing to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent at the three-year horizon.

Home price expectations ticked up to 3.3 percent after seven consecutive months at 3.0 percent, reaching their highest level since July 2022.

Consumers also anticipated faster price growth for gasoline, food, medical care, a college education and rents, according to the New York Fed survey.

The data follow a string of reports that have indicated sticky inflation and a relentless run-up in home prices.

Data out this week is projected to show US consumer prices still rose at stubborn pace last month, and shelter has been consistently responsible for boosting measures of inflation.

All of which is hammering household budgets as the share of consumers that expect they’ll miss a minimum debt payment over the next three months is at the highest since the onset of the pandemic.

Finally, views of the labor market worsened, with earnings growth expectations decreasing and the probability of higher unemployment rising.

Respondents were also less confident in their ability to find a new job if they lost their current one, falling to the lowest reading in three years.

So - all things considered - not the shiny basket of awesomeness that 'Bidenomics' keeps being promoted as eh?

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 11:19

Jen Psaki Claims Biden Never Looked At Watch, Suggests Gold Star Parents Lied

You know it's bad when Axios is calling out Jen Psaki for lying about President Biden checking his watch during a ceremony for soldiers killed during the botched 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal.

In her new book, "Say More," the former White House press secretary claims that Biden looked at his watch only after the ceremony had ended, contradicting fact-checks (even Snopes) and on-the-record statements from Gold Star families who were there.

Psaki says Biden critics were engaged in "misinformation" and used the image to make "him appear insensitive, concerned only about how much time had passed."

The Associated Press photographer on the tarmac snapped two photos of Biden looking at his watch twice and 10 minutes apart, as fact-checkers at USA Today and Snopes noted soon afterward. -Axios

Psaki also 'mistakenly cited' a passage from the Washington Post to reinforce her lie - when what she quoted was actually from USA Today's fact check article, not the post. The fact check noted that Biden looked at his watch at the end of the ceremony, but also concluded that "photos and video show [Biden] also checked his watch during the ceremony."

More via Axios:

Many family members of the 13 soldiers killed during the explosion at the Abbey Gate base in Kabul have consistently said in interviews and appearances before Congress that Biden checked his watch as the caskets went by.

• Mark Schmitz, the father of Marine Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz, told Congress in August of 2023 that "while I stood there on the tarmac watching you check your watch over and over again, all I wanted to do was shout out, 'It's two f***ing thirty, asshole.' "
• The day after the ceremony on Aug. 29, 2021, Shana Chappell, the mother of Marine Lance Cpl. Kareem Nikoui, wrote on Facebook: "I watched you disrespect us all 5 different times by checking your watch!!! What the f*** was so important that you had to keep looking at your watch????"

.@jrpsaki I’ve spoke to these parents.

Calling Gold Star families liars - even when there’s photographic proof - is a pathetic partisan attempt to defend your boss and a bad look. https://t.co/XoZi6VTETX

— Rep. Mike Waltz (@michaelgwaltz) May 13, 2024

Psaki Responds

While initially declining to comment, Psaki told Axios that the "detail in a few lines of the book about the exact number of times he looked at his watch will be removed in future reprints and the ebook," adding "The story on Afghanistan is really about the importance of delivering feedback even when it is difficult told through my own experience of telling President Biden that his own story of loss was not well received by the families who were grieving their sons and daughters."

https://t.co/dr3KFWKTQO pic.twitter.com/7y9URnyPXU

— Peter J. Hasson (@peterjhasson) May 13, 2024

Democrats consistently rewrite history.

This is a particularly despicable instance of this.

What do the Dems running for Congress in #WI03 have to say about this disgrace?

Nothing.

They will not even bother to protect Americans on social media, what do you think they would… https://t.co/DCKiDSdvU8

— Derrick Van Orden (@derrickvanorden) May 13, 2024

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 11:00

Lindsey Graham Suggests Nuking Iran And Hamas

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Warmonger in chief Lindsey Graham suggested Sunday that Israel, with the help of the US, should use nuclear weapons on Iran and Hamas fighters in Palestinian territories.

Appearing on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” the Republican Senator asked “Why did we drop two bombs, nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki?”

“To end a war that we couldn’t afford to lose,” Graham continued, adding “You don’t understand, apparently, what Israel is facing. They’re facing three groups: Iran, who has received $80 billion in aid… They’re taking that money to kill all the Jews.”

Graham claimed that Israel is facing a significant threat to its existence, and therefore should do whatever it takes, just as the US did in World War Two.

Lindsey Graham suggests dropping big fat NUKES on Iran and Hamas. Doesn't explain how that would work, just says 'it was ok when we did it to Japan'. Full report here: https://t.co/I5kmBiK9OQ pic.twitter.com/LdHXnNVTYd

— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) May 13, 2024

“Why is it okay for America to drop two nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end their existential threat war?”

Graham continued, adding “Why was it okay for us to do that? I thought it was okay. To Israel, do whatever you have to do to survive as a Jewish state.”

“Give Israel the bombs they need to end the war they can’t afford to lose and work with them to minimise casualties,” Graham urged.

Host Kristen Welker provided some pushback, noting that there are now more advanced weapons that could be deployed, rather than just dropping a big fat nuke, and that there might be an alternative to all out war.

But Graham wasn’t having it, stating “When you’re telling the world you’re going to restrict weapons delivery to the Jewish state who is fighting a three-front war for their survival, it emboldens Iran, it emboldens Hamas.”

It’s hardly surprising coming from Graham, who has been calling for wiping Iran off the face of the Earth for years now. But how exactly is Israel going to nuke Hamas without causing more untold carnage to millions of innocent people, including those in its own country?

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 10:40

Market Manipulation Trial Over Bill Hwang's Spectacular $36 Billion Implosion Begins This Week

The trial over Bill Hwang's Archegos Capital Management begins this week.

The charges in Hwang's trial come from the 2021 collapse of the $36 billion dollar Archegos and Reuters has said that testimony could last up to 8 weeks. Prosecutors have said that Archegos' collapse led to $100 billion in shareholder losses at companies he held.

The trial is set to shed a light on how major Wall Street players accommodated, and potentially turned a blind eye, to risky tactics from a wealthy client. Hwang is being accused of using total return swaps to take massive positions in companies without holding their underlying stock. 

As Reuters notes, the company faced crippling margin calls in March 2021 due to falling stock prices. This, in turn, led to significant losses for Archegos and its lenders, including Credit Suisse and Nomura Holdings.

Archegos founder Bill Hwang and CFO Patrick Halligan, charged with racketeering conspiracy and multiple counts of fraud and market manipulation, have pleaded not guilty.

They contest the prosecutors' claims of market manipulation, which some legal experts view as a challenging case for the government. The trial is expected to feature testimony from Archegos’s guilty-pleading head trader and Chief Risk Officer, alongside potential appearances from bank executives.

Hwang was arrested in April 2022 and charged with racketeering conspiracy, securities fraud and wire fraud in connection with a scheme to manipulate the share prices of public companies in order to boost profits. He was then released on $100 million bail. At the time, he told authorities that he had "lost his passport" and so his wife surrendered hers instead. As we noted, he also lived just minutes from Teterboro airport in New Jersey. 

Chief Financial Officer Patrick Halligan, also pleaded not guilty and was freed on $1 million bail and had his travel limited.

According to the 40-page indictment, Hwang engaged in a "fraudulent scheme" that included "interlocking deceptive acts and misconduct, through false and misleading statements to security-based swap ("SBS") counterparties and prime brokers and manipulative trading designed to artificially move the market, which, in tandem, increased Archegos’s assets under management from around $4 billion to over $36 billion in just under six months."

In order to overcome this issue, Archegos "chose not to rely on ordinary market forces," and instead "engaged in a brazen scheme to manipulate the market for the securities of the issuers that represented Archegos’s top 10 holdings" by purchasing both securities and SBSs related to those issuers.

Archegos, through Hwang and Tomita, effected this scheme by dominating the market for its Top 10 Holdings, as well as by “setting the tone” (i.e., engaging in large pre-market trading), bidding up prices by entering incrementally higher limit orders throughout the trading day, and “marking the close” (i.e., engaging in large trading in the last 30 minutes of the trading day) and by other non-economic trading, all with the goal of artificially inflating the share prices of its Top 10 Holdings.

To fuel the alleged manipulation, Archegos used margin extended by counterparties - which Hwang and crew 'deliberately misled', because had they answered truthfully after they began asking questions, it "would have led Archegos to exhaust the finite trading resource that its Counterparties provided."

As a reminder, Archegos amassed a concentrated portfolio of stocks well in excess of $100 billion by using borrowed money in the form of TRS, which kept the exposure on the books of the various prime brokers working with Archegos, thus allowing Hwang to hide his full exposure.

Hwang is a former protégé of hedge-fund titan Julian Robertson, who founded Tiger Management in 1980, which as the Wall Street Journal reports, turned $8.8 million into nearly $22 billion. Several investors trained by Robertson became known as the "Tiger cubs."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 10:20

Musk Wins Latest Censorship Battle In Australia As High Court Rules Against eSafety Commissioner

Authored by Rebekah Barnett via 'Dystopian Down Under' blog,

Can Australia’s eSafety Commissioner block content globally on demand? Not today, ruled the Australian Federal Court, in a win for Elon Musk’s social media platform X.

US billionaire Elon Musk (left), Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant (right)

In a decision this morning, Justice Geoffrey Kennett refused to extend a temporary injunction obtained by eSafety last month, which forced X to remove footage of the Wakeley church stabbing, an alleged religiously motivated terror attack.

Under the Online Safety Act (2021), the eSafety Commissioner, Julie Inman Grant, has the authority to order removal of such ‘class 1 material’ within Australia under threat of hefty fines.

eSafety argued that X had not gone far enough to block the content from Australians, as a geo-block can be circumvented by a VPN. X argued that eSafety was effectively seeking a global ban on content, straying outside of the Australian online harm regulator’s jurisdiction.

eSafety applied to the Federal Court to extend its temporary injunction against X, with a hearing taking place on Friday 10 May. The temporary injunction was due to expire at 5pm on Friday, but was extended to 5pm today, presumably to allow time for Justice Kennett to deliver a decision on the matter.

This morning, Justice Kennett determined that, “The orders of the court will be that the application to extend … is refused,” meaning that at the time of publishing, the injunction is no longer effective. A written decision with the Judge’s reasoning is yet to be published.

In a statement on the Federal Court decision, eSafety said that the matter will return to Court for a case management hearing on Wednesday, 15 May.

Source: X

"The application for this injunction should have never been brought," said Dr Reuben Kirkham, Co-Director of the Free Speech Union of Australia (FSU) in a statement today, questioning the validity of the Commissioner’s bid to enact a global content ban on X.

“The eSafety Commissioner is overreaching and behaving more like an activist than a responsible public servant.”

Dr Kirkham, who was present for the hearing on Friday, told Dystopian Down Under that he counted 12 lawyers present (seven for X, five for eSafety), which, if eSafety is ordered to pay costs, will lump tax payers with “a considerable amount of unnecessary legal costs.”

Digital civil liberties nonprofit the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) echoes FSU Australia’s position, stating that, “no single country should be able to restrict speech across the entire internet,” and likening the Commissioner’s actions to “[using] a sledgehammer to crack a nut.”

An affidavit submitted by the EFF to the eSafety vs. X proceedings last week called for the Court to consider the international impact that a ruling in eSafety’s favour would have in setting a precedent for allowing one country to enforce content bans on citizens of other countries.

“If one court can impose speech-restrictive rules on the entire Internet—despite direct conflicts with laws [in] a foreign jurisdiction as well as international human rights principles—the norms of expectations of all internet users are at risk,” stated the EFF in an article summarising the affidavit.

X’s Global Government Affairs posted about the hearing, stating, “We’re glad X is fighting back, and we hope the judge will recognize the eSafety regulator’s demand for what it is—a big step toward unchecked global censorship—and refuse to let Australia set another dangerous precedent." At the time of publishing, no updated statement on the Judge’s decision had been issued.

Source: X

Dr Kirkham calls the Commissioner’s application to extend her injunction against X “part of a pattern where the eSafety Commissioner’s office seemingly engages in gamesmanship rather than respecting the rule of law or acting as a model litigant.”

Indeed, today’s ruling in X’s favour comes amidst mounting controversy over the eSafety Commissioner’s ongoing stoush with X, which appears to be driven partly by Julie Inman Grant’s global censorship ambitions, and partly by personal feelings.

Inman Grant, who formerly directed Twitter’s Public Policy (Australia and Southeast Asia), has repeatedly criticised Elon Musk since his purchase of the Twitter platform in 2022.

Moreover, Musks’s advocacy for a broad interpretation of free speech on the internet conflicts with Inman Grant’s professed view of free speech as a right that needs to be “recalibrated” for online spaces.

For its part, X has failed to comply with routine reporting to the eSafety Commissioner’s satisfaction, leading eSafety to initiate civil penalty proceedings against X in December last year. If found non-compliant, X could be fined up to AUD $780,000 per day, backdated to March 2023, when the determination of non-compliance was made.

Perhaps the biggest controversy between X and eSafety centres on the highly charged and subective issue of gender ideology.

Inman Grant has enforced removal of a string of posts on X questioning gender ideology, including one suggesting that men can’t breastfeed, and another about a trans-identified male who allegedly injured female players during a women's football game in NSW.

In an internationally high-profile case, the Commissioner recently issued a removal notice over an acerbic gender-critical post by Canadian activist Billboard Chris, raising questions over whether the Government should be able to police opinions and censor statements of biological fact on the internet.

FSU Australia is currently involved in Administrative Appeal Tribunal proceedings on behalf of Billboard Chris (real name Chris Elston) against the eSafety Commissioner. Additionally, X has threatened to sue eSafety over the matter.

Source: X

Returning to the issue of the Wakeley stabbing footage, Inman Grant’s attempt to globally ban the content has been supported by the Australian Government, which leveraged the incident to call for more censorship, including the reintroduction of an unpopular misinformation bill.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also responded to calls to address violence against women by proposing to further expand eSafety’s budget and remit, which could see deep fake pornography and “other misogynistic material” censored by the regulator.

No one will argue against explicit pornography being blocked from children’s view, but it is around the grey edges of definition creep on terms like ‘harm’, ‘adult cyber abuse’ and ‘misogynistic material’ where disagreements will undoubtedly kick-off.

In a move of ‘no confidence’ against eSafety, FSU Australia has launched a petition to abolish the office of the eSafety Commissioner altogether, arguing that a combination of parental controls and platform incentives will suffice in keeping children safe on the internet.

A more moderate approach may be to curtail eSafety’s remit to its original function of dealing with child abuse content (as in 2015), and revenge porn (as in 2017), before the regulator’s purview and powers were significantly expanded with the introduction of the Online Safety Act in 2021.

However, in the media and political conversation, there is little appetite for a moderate approach, as conveyed in a viral guest appearance by media personality Tracey Holmes on a recent episode of the ABC’s failing show Q+A.

Calling out the double standard in the censorship conversation, Holmes told the studio audience,

“I don’t agree with any kind of censorship in a general sense. I don’t think Elon Musk is contributing to any social cohesion split inside this country. I think our mainstream media is doing enough of that. I think our politicians do enough of that…

“Of course there are fault lines everywhere, but there’s only one way you can stop those fault lines from getting bigger, and that is to have the ability to have the town square to hear different points of view…

“And I think unfortunately we’ve been fed ‘this side or that side’ for so long, people are giving up on mainstream media, that’s why they’re tuning out. That’s why they’re going to YouTube… we have let them down.”

Hopefully, some higher-ups in the corporate media tuned to hear what Holmes had to say.

*  *  *

To support Rebekah's work, share, subscribe, and/or make a one-off contribution to DDU via my Kofi account. Thanks! Follow her on X

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: All Eyes On CPI As Fed Speakers Galore

After a very slow week, the key event for markets this week will be US inflation data with April’s PPI (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) the highlights. We’ll see if the higher-than-expected US inflation seen in Q1 extends into Q2 or not. Markets will also hear from Powell (tomorrow) and Vice Chair Jefferson (today) as the highlights of a busy Fedspeak calendar that are included in the day-by-day list at the end. The next most important US data release is Retail Sales on Wednesday.

Elsewhere China’s monthly activity numbers (Friday) are important, and staying in Asia, we also have Japanese PPI (tomorrow) and Q1 GDP (Thursday). In Europe tomorrow’s ZEW survey in Germany and UK labor market stats are highlights. Swedish CPI (Wednesday) may get a little extra attention after last week's Riksbank cut, only the second G10 currency to ease this cycle after Switzerland earlier in the year. Earnings season quietens with only 7 S&P 500 companies and 69 Stoxx 600 companies reporting.

Previewing the main events now and let’s start chronologically with regards to US inflation. For PPI tomorrow, the headline (+0.3% consensus, vs. +0.2% previously) and core (+0.2% consensus vs. +0.2% last month) are always less important than the key components that feed into the core PCE deflator – namely, health care services, portfolio management and domestic airfares. As DB economists point out, whilst the March health care services print was relatively soft (+0.1%), the six-month annualized growth rate of 3.5% was still higher than at any point in the decade prior to the pandemic. They also highlight that with respect to portfolio management, the strength in asset market performance leading up to March should result in a strong print for April, given the typical lags.

With regards to CPI, DB economists think that given the 3% rise in seasonally adjusted gas prices, headline CPI (+0.37% forecast vs. +0.38% previously) should grow faster than core (+0.29% vs. +0.36%). This would lead to core YoY CPI falling two-tenths to 3.6%, and headline falling a tenth to 3.4%, both in-line with consensus. The three-month annualized rate under this scenario would fall by four-tenths to 4.1%, but the six-month annualized rate would tick up a tenth to 4.0%. As ever all eyes will be on whether rents finally respond more in keeping to the numerous models that have suggested they should already be well below where they currently are.

For Wednesday's US Retail Sales, DB’s headline (+0.5% vs. +0.7% previously), ex-autos (+0.4% vs. +1.1%) and retail control (+0.3% vs. +1.1%) forecasts suggest some payback from a strong March release. There will be a few extra eyes on initial jobless claims this week given the spike to +231k last week after months of relative stability around the +210k level. DB economists think the spike could have been mostly due to NY school holiday dates having been shifted and would therefore expect much of the spike to reverse. We also have US housing starts and permits on Thursday which include a 2019-2024 seasonal revision which could be of note. Various regional factory surveys are out which will help fine tune PMI forecasts.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 13

• Data: US April NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan April M2, M3, Germany March current account balance, Canada March building permits
• Central banks: Fed's Mester and Jefferson speak
• Earnings: SoftBank, Tencent Music, Petrobras

Tuesday May 14

• Data: US April PPI, NFIB small business optimism, UK Q1 output per hour, March weekly earnings, employment change, April jobless claims change, Japan April PPI, machine tool orders, Germany and Eurozone May Zew survey
• Central banks: Fed's Powell speaks, ECB's Knot speaks, BoE's Pill speaks
• Earnings: Alibaba, Tencent, Rheinmetall, Home Depot, Vodafone, Sony, Bayer

Wednesday May 15  

• Data: US April CPI, retail sales, May NAHB housing market index, Empire manufacturing index, March total net TIC flows, business inventories, Italy March general government debt, Eurozone Q1 GDP, employment, March industrial production, Canada March manufacturing sales, April housing starts, existing  home sales, Sweden April CPI
• Central banks: Fed's Kashkari speaks, ECB's Villeroy speaks, China 1-yr MLF rate
• Earnings: Cisco, Allianz, Burberry, RWE

Thursday May 16

• Data: US April industrial production, import and export price indices, housing starts, capacity utilization, building permits, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, New York Fed services business activity, initial jobless claims, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilization, Italy March trade balance, Norway Q1 GDP
• Central banks: Fed's Harker, Bostic and Mester speak, ECB's financial stability review, Panetta, De Cos, Nagel and Villeroy speak, BoE's Greene speaks
• Earnings: Walmart, Baidu, JD.com, Applied Materials, Deere, Siemens, Take-Two, Deutsche Telekom, BT

Friday May 17

• Data: US April leading index, China April retail sales, industrial production, new home prices, property investment, France Q1 ilo unemployment rate, Canada March international securities transactions
• Central banks: ECB's Vasle, Guindos, Vujcic, Holzmann and Kazaks speak, BoE's Mann speaks

* * *

Focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI and retail sales reports on Wednesday and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including an event with Vice Chair Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President Mester on Monday and an event with Chair Powell on Tuesday.

Monday, May 13

• No major economic data releases scheduled.
• 09:00 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speak: Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will take part in a discussion on central bank communications at an event hosted by the Cleveland Fed. Q&A is expected. On April 16th, Vice Chair Jefferson noted that his baseline “continues to be that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady at its current level, and that the labor market will remain strong, with labor demand and supply continuing to rebalance.” Vice Chair Jefferson also said that “if incoming data suggest that inflation is more persistent than I currently expect it to be, it will be appropriate to hold in place the current restrictive stance of policy for longer.” On April 17th, President Mester noted that she was still “expecting inflation to come down,” but that she thought the FOMC needed “to be watching and gathering more information before we take action.” President Mester will retire from the FOMC in June.

Tuesday, May 14

• 06:00 AM NFIB Small business optimism, April (consensus 88.1, last 88.5)
• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food and energy, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, April (GS +0.2%, last +0.2%)
• 09:10 AM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech at an event hosted by the New York Fed. Text is expected. On March 25th, Governor Cook noted that while disinflation “has been bumpy and uneven,” “a careful approach to further policy adjustments can ensure that inflation will return sustainably to 2% while striving to maintain the strong labor market.”
• 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take part in an event with European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot hosted by Netherlands’ Foreign Bankers’ Association. Q&A is expected. At the press conference following the FOMC’s May meeting, Chair Powell pushed back strongly against the possibility of rate hikes, saying that he thinks “it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike.” He added that the FOMC would need to see evidence that policy is not sufficiently restrictive in order to hike but is not seeing that. Chair Powell also suggested that he did not take much signal from the inflation uptick in Q1, emphasized the “lag structures built into the inflation process,” and noted that he expected sequential inflation to slow this year.

Wednesday, May 15

• 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, April (consensus -10.3, last -14.3)
• 08:30 AM CPI (mom), April (GS +0.37%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Core CPI (mom), April (GS +0.28%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); CPI (yoy), April (GS +3.42%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.5%); Core CPI (yoy), April (GS +3.61%, consensus +3.6%, last +3.8%): We estimate a 0.28% increase in April core CPI (mom sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 3.6%. Our forecast reflects a 2.5% pullback in airfares and net declines in auto prices (used -0.8%, new unchanged) based on rising inventories, mixed auction prices, and a pullback in incentives. We also assume another decline in communication prices (-0.25%) now that post-holiday price normalization has run its course; Adobe data also indicates falling prices for consumer electronics. We estimate a further slowdown in the primary rent measure (+0.37% vs. +0.41% in March) reflecting the continued softness in apartment inflation, but we assume continued strength in OER (+0.45% vs. +0.44% in March) given the resilience of the single-family segment. On the positive side, we forecast another large gain in car insurance rates (+1.6% vs. +2.6% in March) based on online price data, and we assume a 2bp boost to core CPI from this year’s tax preparation price hikes (within financial services CPI). We estimate a 0.37% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher energy (+1.7%) and food (+0.3%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 22bp increase in core PCE in April.
• 08:30 AM Retail sales, April (GS flat, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto, April (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.1%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, April (GS -0.4%, consensus +0.1%, last +1.0%); Core retail sales, April (GS -0.4%, consensus +0.1%, last +1.1%)... We estimate core retail sales fell 0.4% in April (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; mom sa). Our forecast reflects payback from strong Easter spending in March, as well as sequential softness in credit card spending across retailers and restaurants. We estimate unchanged headline retail sales, reflecting higher auto sales and gasoline prices. 10:00 AM Business inventories, March (consensus flat, last +0.4%) 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, May (consensus 51, last 51)
• 12:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a fireside chat at the 2024 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference. Q&A is expected. On May 7th, President Kashkari said that he thought “the most likely scenario is we sit here [at the current fed funds rate] for an extended period of time.” President Kashkari noted that the FOMC could cut rates “if inflation starts to tick back down or we saw more marked weakening in the labor market,” but that “if we get convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at 3% and that we need to go higher, we would do that.”:
• 03:20 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington D.C. Q&A is expected. On May 10th, Governor Bowman said that she had “not written in any cuts” for 2024 in the FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections. Governor Bowman noted that her “expectation would be a number of months of progress, … and a number of probably meetings as well before I might be comfortable with” interest rate cuts.

Thursday, May 16

• 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS 9.0, consensus 7.5, last 15.5); We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed mane the economy and eventually get us to 2%,” but that he was not “in a mad-dash hurry to get there if all these other good things are happening.” President Bostic also emphasized that if “inflation starts moving in the opposite direction away from our target, I don’t think we’ll have any other option but to respond to that,” noting that he would “have to be open to increasing rates.”

Friday, May 17

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
• 10:15 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a speech on the payments system at the International Organization for Standardization Technical Committee. Text is expected. On March 27th, Governor Waller noted that he continued to “believe that further progress will make it appropriate for the FOMC to begin reducing the target range for the fed funds rate this year. But until that progress materializes, I am not ready to take that step.” Governor Waller also emphasized that “the strength of the US economy and resilience of the labor market mean the risk of waiting a little longer to ease policy is small and significantly lower than acting too soon and possibly squandering our progress on inflation.”
• 12:15 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver a commencement address at the University of San Francisco School of Management. Text is expected. On May 9th, President Daly noted that the policy rate was “restrictive, but it might take more time to just bring inflation down.” She also emphasized that “it’s far too early to declare that the labor market is fragile or faltering.”
• 05:45 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a commencement address at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy at the University of Virginia. Text is expected. On April 3rd, Governor Kugler noted that her “baseline expectation is that further disinflation can be accomplished without a significant rise in unemployment,” and that “if disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate.”

Data Sourced from DB, Meta and GS

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 09:40