The National Association of Realtors released their pending home sales for January 2012 yesterday. Beware of revisions, we've seen irrational exuberance on pending home sales before.
The National Association of Realtors released their pending home sales for November 2011. We have headline buzz blaring highest pending home sales in 19 months as well as claims the entire economy is on the road to recovery, based on just this one private sector housing data report.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, dropped 30.0 percent to 77.6 based on contracts signed in May from a reading of 110.9 in April, and is 15.9 percent below May 2009 when it was 92.3. The falloff comes on the heels of three strong monthly gains as home buyers rushed to take advantage of the tax credit.
While this was expected, the 15.9% below May 2009 is the number to look at. Even more interesting while NAR reports:
The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. However, many closings have been delayed recently from a rush of buyers into the system and slow processing of short sales, in addition to the heavy volume and a more thorough loan underwriting process. As many as 180,000 buyers who signed contracts by April 30 may have missed the June 30 closing deadline for the tax credit.
The reality is Congress passed an extension of the homebuyer's tax credit, yet to be signed into law. CBS MarketWatch:
I gotta laugh because a host of economists now are quite upset that the never ending attempts to re-inflate housing bubbles just isn't going to happen. How long can one's denial last?
Pending Home Sales dropped 16% from last month. It's amusing how Realtor.com tries to paint the news a little better:
The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 16.0 percent to 96.0 from an upwardly revised 114.3 in October, but is 15.5 percent higher than November 2008 when it was 83.1.
There is a video interview on Realtor.com discussing projections and once again, surprise, surprise, the reality that people need good stable jobs to buy homes pops up.
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