Jobless Rate in Michigan now at 15%, California hits unemployment rate Record

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Fifteen states and the District of Columbia reported jobless rates of at least 10.0% in July

We have some eye catching headlines out of today's BLS regional and state unemployment survey. Firstly Michigan has an unemployment rate of 15%. California is now 11.9%, a record and Georgia is at 10.3%, also a record. Looking for new claims data?

Twenty-six states reported over-the-month unemployment rate increases, 17 states and the District of Columbia registered rate decreases, and 7 states had no rate change

Yet the implication is the national unemployment rate is unchanged according to the BLS. Are we now having people fall off of the rolls and thus the count?

Below is the change in employment (i.e. people with jobs or not, instead of the unemployment tally).

 

Table D.  States with statistically significant employment changes from
June 2009 to July 2009, seasonally adjusted
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              |    June     |   July      | Over-the-month
           State              |    2009     |   2009 (p)  |   change (p)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
California....................|  14,285,400 |  14,249,600 |     -35,800
District of Columbia..........|     703,000 |     716,200 |      13,200
Florida.......................|   7,380,000 |   7,354,800 |     -25,200
Kansas........................|   1,334,800 |   1,341,100 |       6,300
Maryland......................|   2,541,700 |   2,551,700 |      10,000
Michigan......................|   3,841,300 |   3,879,400 |      38,100
Minnesota.....................|   2,646,700 |   2,657,000 |      10,300
Mississippi...................|   1,124,300 |   1,118,000 |      -6,300
New York......................|   8,582,500 |   8,644,600 |      62,100
North Carolina................|   3,938,100 |   3,911,700 |     -26,400
Tennessee.....................|   2,649,300 |   2,664,900 |      15,600
Texas.........................|  10,378,900 |  10,416,800 |      37,900
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
   p = preliminary.

 

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It's more of the seasonal adjusting model

at work.

The impression of falling unemployment is going to fall apart just like the initial claims data already has when the August numbers come rolling in. Just wait.