but blog posts (diaries) on DK also go to the black hole of never read again due to how they set up their site. Post have a real shelf life of about 48 hours where as we pick up readers over time.
Many of the posts are not truly time dependent, a lot of in depth analysis, some history and so on so and I want to keep that feature, yet everybody is running into a wall on this problem here so I'll see if I can do some sort of technical permalink also through a secondary aliasing.
(that's technical crud for I'll see if I can do both so you don't have to have an engineering degree to write up your stuff!)
It's kind of late for this post but a reminder when you change the blog title, you break the link to the post.
On EP the blog title is the link so when you change it, you break it.
UPDATE in the beginning of the text won't break it and you can also change the publication time to make it top in the blog roll if new information, new updates are added.
I know manfrommiddletown wants a permanent link once a post is first submitted but if I do that I break this, which search engines love this technique and posts gets higher visibility in page rankings and in aggregators.
I'll have to think about this technical dilemma but for now, tis the way it is!
I posted a comment over there. That's one of the issues, divide and conquer into two camps, where there are so many people of all political flavors who have a brain, can look at the indicators, statistics and see impending doom as well as often agree on the corrective policy action.
I just don't get why the financial institutions get absurd amounts of money, who are completely responsible for this mess, dug their own graves, lobbied for it, yet the big 3 can't get part of that TARP and such a much smaller amount as well.
They need to retool.
Here's another thing, GM especially but all three have been busy outsourcing, building plants in China and India like crazy, massive capital expenditures to do that.
Now why that hasn't come up in these discussions and Congress doesn't demand that all funds are for US jobs, US cars, US trucks and so on is beyond me.
Now a word and they are spending billions building factories, facilities, including outsourcing R&D.
At least they will get something, they can't go under but this is just a mess how these things are going on.
Thanks for posting this and keeping on the update, it's incredibly important on what happens, I sure want to know.
... because recall that the last time there was a recession after a financial crisis of at least this magnitude, the recession lasted multiple years, the first recovery was short-lived and followed by a second steep, multi-year recession, and unemployment peaked at around 25%.
Even if the headline rate includes 1% deflation from energy prices, 0.5% deflation on the fix-price sector (that is, excluding the flex-price sector) is quite genuinely deflation ... and of course deflation makes debt overhang problems worse.
When Japan had a finance sector melt-down approaching these levels, what followed was ten years of stagnation, punctuated by three recessions.
Now, this financial melt-down seems to be less severe ... so far ... than the Panic of 1929 which helped ensure that the Recession of 1929/30 became the Great Depression, and more severe than the Japanese Real Estate Bubble collapse leading into the Lost Decade of the 90's.
So within the bracket of financial melt-downs in this range, 10 years of depression or, with very aggressive fiscal policy, stagnation would seem to be a norm.
Breaking that norm is one of the four main economic challenges for 2009.
Is that "paper" gold has gotten divorced from "metal" gold- and that due to industrial use, "metal" gold is really trading at about 1.5x the spot price, with a severe lack of supply. Gold certificates are still trading at spot price- but more people are insisting on the real thing.
Your method, cutting the costs of union employees, is rather short sighted- in that it harms the general economy almost as much as bankruptcy of the big three would. Every one of those union employees is also a consumer- a customer of YOUR work.
Here's where the big three stumbled, and inherent in there is the solution: They overproduced cars that the consumers don't want and can't afford.
I say give them their bailout as a $25 billion grant, not as a loan. But ALL of that money needs to be spent in such a way as to retool their factories to build 25% electric, 25% plug-in hybrid, 25% flex fuel electric drive train diesel, 25% flex-fuel electric drive train gasahol, for the 2010-2015 model years. After that, they can go back to building whatever they want, mix up the percentages, whatever. But what this will give America back is a half a shot at energy independence at the end of the depression, consumers a *REASON* to buy, and continue the good jobs that create consumers.
Similar opportunities exist in making every building in the United States into an ambient-energy power plant sufficient so that the electrical needs of every household are covered, leaving centrally generated energy for industrial use. And of course the information network to control it all.
But that would be too practical of use for the money, wouldn't it?
And you're right to call me out on it. Some states haven't seen the tort reform happen yet, but you're right, a MUCH bigger share of the pie is the duplicate paperwork aspect of having multiple insurance companies with different filing requirements. I'm willing to bet for every doctor, a hospital probably needs two to three people in accounting just to do the billing.
But what they don't understand is that for those smart enough to avoid debt now, and sacrifice to pay off whatever debt they have, deflation is good. It brings prices back into line with wages, and narrows the huge gap between the rich and the poor.
On second thought, given that the Republicans and Democrats have spent the last 50 years trying to increase that gap, I think I know why they see this as a bad thing....
As someone who does this for a living, I have to tell you that the drying up of credit has had a big impact on the markets. In fact, it's always been these "light" volume days where we've seen many of these volatile moves.
When I lived in the southwest, cross border medical tourism was common back to the 60's. If the procedure is not major, it can be considered.
Major medical is something you really want to consider carefully considering how risky it can be in the U.S. We are talking about an underdeveloped country. I remember when my aunt was traveling with us a number of years back, and ended up in a hospital in northern Mexico. They advised to medi-vac her out of there.
But in the meantime, my aunt got to enjoy the bedside manner of the local care. In one instance, an orderly wheeling her bed stopped me pointed her out, ran his finger across his throat and proclaimed, "Muerte". I can still see is gold-toothed grin to this day.
This is the deal. If you want my money, every retiree must take an immediate 15% cut to its pension and an immediate cut to its healthcare services in the form of higher deductibles with zero possibility of an increase until such time that my money is paid and you have had as much as the borrowed money in cash reserves. Every union member must take an immediate 15% pay cut; there will be no termination benefit other than one months pay. Anyone going on strike is immediately terminated with no benefits. There is zero possibility of a pay increase until such time that the company has paid my money back and has as much cash in reserves. All executives must take a 50% pay cut, and none shall get more than $200K a year until such time that they have paid back the money. No Jets, no benefits of any kind besides the pay.
No possibility of a net cash transfer from US operations to foreign operations until such time that my money is paid back.
Then you will see that GM and Ford suddenly become world class car companies that can not just make cars but make lots of profits.
This is should be the deal. Take it or risk loosing it all.
That's why I see, when the China PNTR kicked in, about 2000, then the United States literally just handed over their wealth, economic well being to China and now the bill has become due.
are very expensive. My mother suffered a heart attack two years ago. Spent three days in the hospital. The cost just for her room, not counting the doctor or procedures or what have you, was $56k.
And this guy has been a big player in Gold. The fact is, like he says in his newsletter and on television, all the ingredients for $1000+ Gold is there, yet it isn't moving. No one can figure out why.
but blog posts (diaries) on DK also go to the black hole of never read again due to how they set up their site. Post have a real shelf life of about 48 hours where as we pick up readers over time.
Many of the posts are not truly time dependent, a lot of in depth analysis, some history and so on so and I want to keep that feature, yet everybody is running into a wall on this problem here so I'll see if I can do some sort of technical permalink also through a secondary aliasing.
(that's technical crud for I'll see if I can do both so you don't have to have an engineering degree to write up your stuff!)
Ok, well let me work on a new title and stick with it. I don't care too much for the one up there now.
It's kind of late for this post but a reminder when you change the blog title, you break the link to the post.
On EP the blog title is the link so when you change it, you break it.
UPDATE in the beginning of the text won't break it and you can also change the publication time to make it top in the blog roll if new information, new updates are added.
I know manfrommiddletown wants a permanent link once a post is first submitted but if I do that I break this, which search engines love this technique and posts gets higher visibility in page rankings and in aggregators.
I'll have to think about this technical dilemma but for now, tis the way it is!
I posted a comment over there. That's one of the issues, divide and conquer into two camps, where there are so many people of all political flavors who have a brain, can look at the indicators, statistics and see impending doom as well as often agree on the corrective policy action.
At least he's over there writing!
I just don't get why the financial institutions get absurd amounts of money, who are completely responsible for this mess, dug their own graves, lobbied for it, yet the big 3 can't get part of that TARP and such a much smaller amount as well.
They need to retool.
Here's another thing, GM especially but all three have been busy outsourcing, building plants in China and India like crazy, massive capital expenditures to do that.
Now why that hasn't come up in these discussions and Congress doesn't demand that all funds are for US jobs, US cars, US trucks and so on is beyond me.
Now a word and they are spending billions building factories, facilities, including outsourcing R&D.
At least they will get something, they can't go under but this is just a mess how these things are going on.
Thanks for posting this and keeping on the update, it's incredibly important on what happens, I sure want to know.
... because recall that the last time there was a recession after a financial crisis of at least this magnitude, the recession lasted multiple years, the first recovery was short-lived and followed by a second steep, multi-year recession, and unemployment peaked at around 25%.
Even if the headline rate includes 1% deflation from energy prices, 0.5% deflation on the fix-price sector (that is, excluding the flex-price sector) is quite genuinely deflation ... and of course deflation makes debt overhang problems worse.
When Japan had a finance sector melt-down approaching these levels, what followed was ten years of stagnation, punctuated by three recessions.
Now, this financial melt-down seems to be less severe ... so far ... than the Panic of 1929 which helped ensure that the Recession of 1929/30 became the Great Depression, and more severe than the Japanese Real Estate Bubble collapse leading into the Lost Decade of the 90's.
So within the bracket of financial melt-downs in this range, 10 years of depression or, with very aggressive fiscal policy, stagnation would seem to be a norm.
Breaking that norm is one of the four main economic challenges for 2009.
Is that "paper" gold has gotten divorced from "metal" gold- and that due to industrial use, "metal" gold is really trading at about 1.5x the spot price, with a severe lack of supply. Gold certificates are still trading at spot price- but more people are insisting on the real thing.
This is your Professional area! One of the things I noticed in the 1929 crash was before it happened there were these wild swings.
Your method, cutting the costs of union employees, is rather short sighted- in that it harms the general economy almost as much as bankruptcy of the big three would. Every one of those union employees is also a consumer- a customer of YOUR work.
Here's where the big three stumbled, and inherent in there is the solution: They overproduced cars that the consumers don't want and can't afford.
I say give them their bailout as a $25 billion grant, not as a loan. But ALL of that money needs to be spent in such a way as to retool their factories to build 25% electric, 25% plug-in hybrid, 25% flex fuel electric drive train diesel, 25% flex-fuel electric drive train gasahol, for the 2010-2015 model years. After that, they can go back to building whatever they want, mix up the percentages, whatever. But what this will give America back is a half a shot at energy independence at the end of the depression, consumers a *REASON* to buy, and continue the good jobs that create consumers.
Similar opportunities exist in making every building in the United States into an ambient-energy power plant sufficient so that the electrical needs of every household are covered, leaving centrally generated energy for industrial use. And of course the information network to control it all.
But that would be too practical of use for the money, wouldn't it?
And you're right to call me out on it. Some states haven't seen the tort reform happen yet, but you're right, a MUCH bigger share of the pie is the duplicate paperwork aspect of having multiple insurance companies with different filing requirements. I'm willing to bet for every doctor, a hospital probably needs two to three people in accounting just to do the billing.
But what they don't understand is that for those smart enough to avoid debt now, and sacrifice to pay off whatever debt they have, deflation is good. It brings prices back into line with wages, and narrows the huge gap between the rich and the poor.
On second thought, given that the Republicans and Democrats have spent the last 50 years trying to increase that gap, I think I know why they see this as a bad thing....
As someone who does this for a living, I have to tell you that the drying up of credit has had a big impact on the markets. In fact, it's always been these "light" volume days where we've seen many of these volatile moves.
When I lived in the southwest, cross border medical tourism was common back to the 60's. If the procedure is not major, it can be considered.
Major medical is something you really want to consider carefully considering how risky it can be in the U.S. We are talking about an underdeveloped country. I remember when my aunt was traveling with us a number of years back, and ended up in a hospital in northern Mexico. They advised to medi-vac her out of there.
But in the meantime, my aunt got to enjoy the bedside manner of the local care. In one instance, an orderly wheeling her bed stopped me pointed her out, ran his finger across his throat and proclaimed, "Muerte". I can still see is gold-toothed grin to this day.
That is why it is worthwhile to look at past Oil shocks: 1974, 1980, 1990 -- for guidance as to how this economic shock plays out.
very infomative article and fully agree with it. The cause of present crisis is the greed to become very rich in sgort time without doing work.
This is the deal. If you want my money, every retiree must take an immediate 15% cut to its pension and an immediate cut to its healthcare services in the form of higher deductibles with zero possibility of an increase until such time that my money is paid and you have had as much as the borrowed money in cash reserves. Every union member must take an immediate 15% pay cut; there will be no termination benefit other than one months pay. Anyone going on strike is immediately terminated with no benefits. There is zero possibility of a pay increase until such time that the company has paid my money back and has as much cash in reserves. All executives must take a 50% pay cut, and none shall get more than $200K a year until such time that they have paid back the money. No Jets, no benefits of any kind besides the pay.
No possibility of a net cash transfer from US operations to foreign operations until such time that my money is paid back.
Then you will see that GM and Ford suddenly become world class car companies that can not just make cars but make lots of profits.
This is should be the deal. Take it or risk loosing it all.
That's why I see, when the China PNTR kicked in, about 2000, then the United States literally just handed over their wealth, economic well being to China and now the bill has become due.
I meant to say Dennis Gartman and the Gartman Letter. Anyone who googles Gartner will get a technology industry letter. My apologies.
are very expensive. My mother suffered a heart attack two years ago. Spent three days in the hospital. The cost just for her room, not counting the doctor or procedures or what have you, was $56k.
And this guy has been a big player in Gold. The fact is, like he says in his newsletter and on television, all the ingredients for $1000+ Gold is there, yet it isn't moving. No one can figure out why.
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