I said in the above comment that at $2 trillion, a 20 year program of rail-building would cost $200 billion per year, when it would actually be about $100 billion per year...unless you did it in 10 years.
By the way the WTO rule does not apply, I believe, to government-owned companies, so if the US took over the Big 3, they could mandate that the Big 3 buy most of their components in the US while subsidizing them.
Although you never hear people argue that you can't trade for all of your manufactured goods with services -- I know why that is, it would only call into question the entire foundation of neoclassical economic analysis. So there's a religious ideological problem.
This is part of the whole "post-industrial" idea that's been propagated as well. At any rate, there's actually a fairly easy way to rebuild manufacturing with policy: domestic content legislation. Now, the problem is with -- guess who? -- the WTO rules, which say that if you subsidize an industry, you can't demand domestic content, unless it's for general infrastructure. Which trains are. So the easiest way to lift up much of the manufacturing base is to embark on a huge program of train-building.
You might think that this is in the realm of fantasy, but let's fantasize that we add a high-speed rail system to this country that covers most of the 46,000 miles of the Interstate Highway System. According to the figures from California's high-speed rail planning, it costs about $50 million per mile for high-speed rail. So if you put down, oh, say, 40,000 miles of high-speed rail, over 20 years, you have $2 trillion in spending, or about $200 billion a year.
So the point is, if you can figure out infrastructure investments that involve buying parts from the industrial base, then the government can basically invest big bucks into rebuilding the manfufacturing base.
You are so right and I simply am horrified that the financial sector is getting (???).... I think it's now $8.5 trillion in money pledges total. Yet manufacturing cannot even get obviously, oh so damn obviously, completely unfair trade agreements or even the same subsidies given to foreign manufacturers in the United States even lip service?
I do know there were many fair traders election and the U.S. population on the Congressional side obviously is trying to get in better representatives but from administrations the manufacturing sector should be the center piece of any stimulus plan and we just don't even heard the term manufacturing mentioned!
I mean they are blasting the big 3 over $25 billion loan with AIG got overnight $85 billion. What is wrong with this picture!!!!!
If any moral person had actually read von Mises, it's pretty damned obvious right from the start that the Austrian School is based on eugenics and accelerated evolution- they actually consider depressions to be a *good* thing because it gets rid of "inefficient" businesses.
Never mind that's the same bankrupt morality of anti-semitism.....
The preview should be exactly what you will see posted. At least that's the underlying code and how it's worked for me. You probably didn't notice the <B> you're putting in there without the closing tag, which is </b>. The XHTHML tag for bold is <strong> and needs the closing tag, </strong>. Also, you don't need to put paragraph tags <P> in your post but if you do, you need closing tag, </p>.
Then you're leaving SNIP in your blockquote.
So, what happened was you had an open <B> tag which made bold the entire post, which I don't think you meant.
As your friendly anal admin, you can email me with questions.
I usually put answers in the user guide as well as the admin forum (and I'll respond via email).
But, one thing is because I have a lot of things enabled on the site (unlike most other blogs) a malformed blog post can potentially mess up the entire site. I have a lot of code running to automatically correct mistakes but it's possible something gets past the script if human eyeballs do not catch their errors.
It might be useful to define, macro-economically, what constitutes a recovery, by economic indicators, for people.
Then, we might discuss what these metrics lag reality so badly and also how they defocus on working people.
I'm thinking of the jobless recovery, which if you're right on the tepid 2009 recovery will surely take place and the huge disconnect from main street.
Definitions frequently carry emotional "baggage" with them.
I try to keep to the usually dry academic definitions, but for example, for a huge minority if not the majority of people the recovery/expansion of 1933-37 still was a rotten time.
Most of the people who actually lived through 1933-1937 wouldn't consider it a recovery; but you're right in a way.
Here's a point of "personal economics" that I'm going to put out there because I do believe in your methods if not your definitions:
Watch NDD's figures very carefully. They indicate a once-in-a-lifetime deflationary depression opportunity coming. Keep a close watch on the PMI as well. You'll have about a month, maybe, or closer to a week between PMI increasing and the increase of the prices in the stores. This will be the bottom of deflation. This will be the time to buy durable goods for your household that have a 10-20 year expected lifespan. You won't see them this cheap for another 70 years.
but the situation in the US is unlikely to degenerate into full on social collapse here.
In China, the CCP needs 7%+ growth annually to keep a lid on the simmering social situation there. There have been something like 80,000+ disruptions of social order large enough that they require the security forces to intervene.
With the number of people being put on the street in Guangdong in particular, there's going to be serious social unrest, unless the government steps in with a program of Keynesian spending. Which they have to the tune of $586 billion to improve domestic infrastructure and targeted social welfare programs.
This is a good start, but the question is what happens when the dollar reserves run out. At that point, the CCP may have to consider a strategy shift to stay in power. From economic development to the nascent, but nonetheless very powerful,nationalist sentiment in the country.
Chinese who were educated before the 1980s where likely exposed to textbooks that included maps that showed large portions of East Asia that had tribute relations with the Chinese Empire, as territories "lost" in the old democratic period (1840-1919) this includes the Russian Far East, Sakhalin, the Korean Peninsula, the Spratly and Paracel island chains, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, Malaysia, Assam, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Nepal.
Prior to the arrival of Europeans in the region, China sat at the center of a vast unequal trade system disguised as tribute relations to conform with the low regard Confucians held for merchants.
If the Chinese turn to nationalism there could be serious conflict with some of these countries. Right now the Chinese and Russians are buddy, buddy, but Siberia holds a vast treasure or oil, gas, and minerals that would allow the Chinese a more secure energy supply than the one they have now coming from the Middle East and Africa, which has multiple bottlenecks that could be closed.
Please get rid of the Austrian School Of Economics. They have done nothing but ruin this country-for some damned reason we have more of them than Austria does! Bring back John Maynard Keynes!!
In answer to both your and Rob Oak's questions above, I am using "recovery" in the same sense as "expansion" or "positive GDP". For example, the period of 1933-37 was an expansion or recovery. There was positive GDP growth during that period, even though unemployment never went below 12%.
and sorry for the inconvenience. Does that mean the preview is not actually WYSIWYG? But I shall certainly look at the posted end product in the future before assuming I'm done.
On the causes of the crash, of course I agree. The point I wanted to make was that Citi and the Street promote and thrive on usury and speculation, but it has all come full circle.
You had a lot of XHTML mistakes in your post, which I took the liberty to correct. Check out the user guide on the right column link. Lots of info on how to format as well as other user guide info for EP.
To all folks, please check your post after hitting submit (publish) to make sure it's formatted as you want.
On the bankruptcy bill, well, I don't think it caused this, that is attributable to derivatives, i.e. the shadow banking system, but it sure didn't help!
At this point one would think people would be protesting in the streets for all of the money has gone to these banks, many with absolutely predatory practices and nothing to the homeowner, the consumer.
have no idea who you are talking about, since this is an economics blog. Let's just not blast others and/or bringing the blog wars here. We're not them and on top of it we're not a political blog per say. We're an economics blogs, focused on the facts and one of the reasons EP exists so we do focus in on all things econ and not personalities or other bloggers and so on.
...money changed hands. What do you think Obama spent his dough on.
And....
You cannot overestimate the ignorance of such as Kos, Bowers, BTD, Jeralyn and Jane. All of whom I've met and discussed this issue with.
None of them has the education, history does have something to say; skilset, none are good writers; training, journalism...what's that? They achieve their prominence by the simple fact of being first on the scene.
Not because they are particularly suited to the peculiar blend of analysis, writing skills and historical knowledge that blogging really requires.
And of course they really, really want all the important Villagers, such as PeLousy & Co. to like them... to give them access. I was kicked of dumbass Kid Oakland's blogger's list for asking what the BFD was about getting accredited to the DNC convention. He did this by private email as he really, really didn't want to have public conversation about how special access at the DNC might 'inluence' his prize pack of bloviators.
It's really no different today, except in a few spots, in 'Left Blogistan' than is was in pre-revolutionary Boston except...
...the Founding Fathers are, so far, missing.
The mechanism for progressives to draft and fund their own candidates does now exist and is not yet totally under the control of bloviators such as Kos and Bowers.
If the Obamanation fails, for whatever reason, the progressive movement will be there.
It's not going away no matter how much the Upper Tenth and their hoodies wish it too. Financial inequality has now become too great for that to happen.
...check out this post for an alternative view of what 'the economy' is suppose to do.
When we get this sort of discussion 'on the table' we will be on the road to a better tomorrow. As long as the discussion is bounded by current ideas about how society works and why we need it we're not gonna get...
This is why Krugman, while doing yeoman work that is needed for our current survival, and the rest of the economic establishment are not helpful in planning, yes we need to plan all successful society's planned stuff, and preparing for tomorrow.
I think we might see a "recovery" in (highly dubious) statistical measures of the economy, such as GDP, capacity utilization, unemployment rate, and so on.
But I'm a nutcase. I'm not looking for a recovery. I'm looking for a complete revolutionary shift
- from a "post-industrial" consumerist society that consumes more than it produces without accounting for negative externalities such as environmental degradation, and counts in GDP the speculative frenzy of financial derivatives creation and trading,
- to a industrial-oriented society that producing the surplus of capital goods to truly develop the less-developed countries of Africa and elsewhere, beginning to rapidly wean itself off fossil fuels and has finally learned the difference between enterprise and speculation and reigned in financial markets accordingly.
the more voters are concerned about economic issues, the more they vote Democratic.
But, those red states also are not huge sanctuary illegal immigration states and they also do not have huge manufacturing or are financial/tech hubs.
So, their population, labor supply, jobs are much more stable than other parts of the country.
More financially secure, less tendency to vote for economic reasons.
Of course on the economic reasons front I just read Obama appointed a La Raza corporate, cheap labor, open border, everything is about "hating brown people", illegal immigration is great agenda group (brought to you by the US Chamber of Commerce, the meat packing industry and Coca cola !) Director of Intergovernmental Affairs
So I guess the message is to not only make sure we have open borders but to also make sure the individual states don't try to do something about it. Lovely.
I said in the above comment that at $2 trillion, a 20 year program of rail-building would cost $200 billion per year, when it would actually be about $100 billion per year...unless you did it in 10 years.
By the way the WTO rule does not apply, I believe, to government-owned companies, so if the US took over the Big 3, they could mandate that the Big 3 buy most of their components in the US while subsidizing them.
http://gristmill.grist.org/user/Jon%20Rynn
Although you never hear people argue that you can't trade for all of your manufactured goods with services -- I know why that is, it would only call into question the entire foundation of neoclassical economic analysis. So there's a
religiousideological problem.This is part of the whole "post-industrial" idea that's been propagated as well. At any rate, there's actually a fairly easy way to rebuild manufacturing with policy: domestic content legislation. Now, the problem is with -- guess who? -- the WTO rules, which say that if you subsidize an industry, you can't demand domestic content, unless it's for general infrastructure. Which trains are. So the easiest way to lift up much of the manufacturing base is to embark on a huge program of train-building.
You might think that this is in the realm of fantasy, but let's fantasize that we add a high-speed rail system to this country that covers most of the 46,000 miles of the Interstate Highway System. According to the figures from California's high-speed rail planning, it costs about $50 million per mile for high-speed rail. So if you put down, oh, say, 40,000 miles of high-speed rail, over 20 years, you have $2 trillion in spending, or about $200 billion a year.
So the point is, if you can figure out infrastructure investments that involve buying parts from the industrial base, then the government can basically invest big bucks into rebuilding the manfufacturing base.
http://gristmill.grist.org/user/Jon%20Rynn
You are so right and I simply am horrified that the financial sector is getting (???).... I think it's now $8.5 trillion in money pledges total. Yet manufacturing cannot even get obviously, oh so damn obviously, completely unfair trade agreements or even the same subsidies given to foreign manufacturers in the United States even lip service?
I do know there were many fair traders election and the U.S. population on the Congressional side obviously is trying to get in better representatives but from administrations the manufacturing sector should be the center piece of any stimulus plan and we just don't even heard the term manufacturing mentioned!
I mean they are blasting the big 3 over $25 billion loan with AIG got overnight $85 billion. What is wrong with this picture!!!!!
If any moral person had actually read von Mises, it's pretty damned obvious right from the start that the Austrian School is based on eugenics and accelerated evolution- they actually consider depressions to be a *good* thing because it gets rid of "inefficient" businesses.
Never mind that's the same bankrupt morality of anti-semitism.....
The preview should be exactly what you will see posted. At least that's the underlying code and how it's worked for me. You probably didn't notice the <B> you're putting in there without the closing tag, which is </b>. The XHTHML tag for bold is <strong> and needs the closing tag, </strong>. Also, you don't need to put paragraph tags <P> in your post but if you do, you need closing tag, </p>.
Then you're leaving SNIP in your blockquote.
So, what happened was you had an open <B> tag which made bold the entire post, which I don't think you meant.
As your friendly anal admin, you can email me with questions.
I usually put answers in the user guide as well as the admin forum (and I'll respond via email).
But, one thing is because I have a lot of things enabled on the site (unlike most other blogs) a malformed blog post can potentially mess up the entire site. I have a lot of code running to automatically correct mistakes but it's possible something gets past the script if human eyeballs do not catch their errors.
It might be useful to define, macro-economically, what constitutes a recovery, by economic indicators, for people.
Then, we might discuss what these metrics lag reality so badly and also how they defocus on working people.
I'm thinking of the jobless recovery, which if you're right on the tepid 2009 recovery will surely take place and the huge disconnect from main street.
Definitions frequently carry emotional "baggage" with them.
I try to keep to the usually dry academic definitions, but for example, for a huge minority if not the majority of people the recovery/expansion of 1933-37 still was a rotten time.
Most of the people who actually lived through 1933-1937 wouldn't consider it a recovery; but you're right in a way.
Here's a point of "personal economics" that I'm going to put out there because I do believe in your methods if not your definitions:
Watch NDD's figures very carefully. They indicate a once-in-a-lifetime deflationary depression opportunity coming. Keep a close watch on the PMI as well. You'll have about a month, maybe, or closer to a week between PMI increasing and the increase of the prices in the stores. This will be the bottom of deflation. This will be the time to buy durable goods for your household that have a 10-20 year expected lifespan. You won't see them this cheap for another 70 years.
but the situation in the US is unlikely to degenerate into full on social collapse here.
In China, the CCP needs 7%+ growth annually to keep a lid on the simmering social situation there. There have been something like 80,000+ disruptions of social order large enough that they require the security forces to intervene.
With the number of people being put on the street in Guangdong in particular, there's going to be serious social unrest, unless the government steps in with a program of Keynesian spending. Which they have to the tune of $586 billion to improve domestic infrastructure and targeted social welfare programs.
This is a good start, but the question is what happens when the dollar reserves run out. At that point, the CCP may have to consider a strategy shift to stay in power. From economic development to the nascent, but nonetheless very powerful,nationalist sentiment in the country.
Chinese who were educated before the 1980s where likely exposed to textbooks that included maps that showed large portions of East Asia that had tribute relations with the Chinese Empire, as territories "lost" in the old democratic period (1840-1919) this includes the Russian Far East, Sakhalin, the Korean Peninsula, the Spratly and Paracel island chains, Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Burma, Malaysia, Assam, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Nepal.
Prior to the arrival of Europeans in the region, China sat at the center of a vast unequal trade system disguised as tribute relations to conform with the low regard Confucians held for merchants.
If the Chinese turn to nationalism there could be serious conflict with some of these countries. Right now the Chinese and Russians are buddy, buddy, but Siberia holds a vast treasure or oil, gas, and minerals that would allow the Chinese a more secure energy supply than the one they have now coming from the Middle East and Africa, which has multiple bottlenecks that could be closed.
Please get rid of the Austrian School Of Economics. They have done nothing but ruin this country-for some damned reason we have more of them than Austria does! Bring back John Maynard Keynes!!
In answer to both your and Rob Oak's questions above, I am using "recovery" in the same sense as "expansion" or "positive GDP". For example, the period of 1933-37 was an expansion or recovery. There was positive GDP growth during that period, even though unemployment never went below 12%.
and sorry for the inconvenience. Does that mean the preview is not actually WYSIWYG? But I shall certainly look at the posted end product in the future before assuming I'm done.
On the causes of the crash, of course I agree. The point I wanted to make was that Citi and the Street promote and thrive on usury and speculation, but it has all come full circle.
You had a lot of XHTML mistakes in your post, which I took the liberty to correct. Check out the user guide on the right column link. Lots of info on how to format as well as other user guide info for EP.
To all folks, please check your post after hitting submit (publish) to make sure it's formatted as you want.
On the bankruptcy bill, well, I don't think it caused this, that is attributable to derivatives, i.e. the shadow banking system, but it sure didn't help!
At this point one would think people would be protesting in the streets for all of the money has gone to these banks, many with absolutely predatory practices and nothing to the homeowner, the consumer.
It's just criminal.
have no idea who you are talking about, since this is an economics blog. Let's just not blast others and/or bringing the blog wars here. We're not them and on top of it we're not a political blog per say. We're an economics blogs, focused on the facts and one of the reasons EP exists so we do focus in on all things econ and not personalities or other bloggers and so on.
...money changed hands. What do you think Obama spent his dough on.
And....
You cannot overestimate the ignorance of such as Kos, Bowers, BTD, Jeralyn and Jane. All of whom I've met and discussed this issue with.
None of them has the education, history does have something to say; skilset, none are good writers; training, journalism...what's that? They achieve their prominence by the simple fact of being first on the scene.
Not because they are particularly suited to the peculiar blend of analysis, writing skills and historical knowledge that blogging really requires.
And of course they really, really want all the important Villagers, such as PeLousy & Co. to like them... to give them access. I was kicked of dumbass Kid Oakland's blogger's list for asking what the BFD was about getting accredited to the DNC convention. He did this by private email as he really, really didn't want to have public conversation about how special access at the DNC might 'inluence' his prize pack of bloviators.
It's really no different today, except in a few spots, in 'Left Blogistan' than is was in pre-revolutionary Boston except...
...the Founding Fathers are, so far, missing.
The mechanism for progressives to draft and fund their own candidates does now exist and is not yet totally under the control of bloviators such as Kos and Bowers.
If the Obamanation fails, for whatever reason, the progressive movement will be there.
It's not going away no matter how much the Upper Tenth and their hoodies wish it too. Financial inequality has now become too great for that to happen.
...check out this post for an alternative view of what 'the economy' is suppose to do.
When we get this sort of discussion 'on the table' we will be on the road to a better tomorrow. As long as the discussion is bounded by current ideas about how society works and why we need it we're not gonna get...
......'the change you've been waiting for'.
This is why Krugman, while doing yeoman work that is needed for our current survival, and the rest of the economic establishment are not helpful in planning, yes we need to plan all successful society's planned stuff, and preparing for tomorrow.
I think we might see a "recovery" in (highly dubious) statistical measures of the economy, such as GDP, capacity utilization, unemployment rate, and so on.
But I'm a nutcase. I'm not looking for a recovery. I'm looking for a complete revolutionary shift
- from a "post-industrial" consumerist society that consumes more than it produces without accounting for negative externalities such as environmental degradation, and counts in GDP the speculative frenzy of financial derivatives creation and trading,
- to a industrial-oriented society that producing the surplus of capital goods to truly develop the less-developed countries of Africa and elsewhere, beginning to rapidly wean itself off fossil fuels and has finally learned the difference between enterprise and speculation and reigned in financial markets accordingly.
Technically can a recovery occur with a 10-12% unemployment rate? (by the definitions).
the more voters are concerned about economic issues, the more they vote Democratic.
But, those red states also are not huge sanctuary illegal immigration states and they also do not have huge manufacturing or are financial/tech hubs.
So, their population, labor supply, jobs are much more stable than other parts of the country.
More financially secure, less tendency to vote for economic reasons.
Of course on the economic reasons front I just read Obama appointed a La Raza corporate, cheap labor, open border, everything is about "hating brown people", illegal immigration is great agenda group (brought to you by the US Chamber of Commerce, the meat packing industry and Coca cola !) Director of Intergovernmental Affairs
So I guess the message is to not only make sure we have open borders but to also make sure the individual states don't try to do something about it. Lovely.
Since I live in a blue state and tend to vote red.....I'm curious. What in the voting patterns of a red state do you think keeps employment at bay?
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