What he is referring to is a paper, and now they are in blogging wars on how Fema did not follow basic macro economic precepts, laws.
He is not blasting neoclassical or macro economics, he is using it in his argument.
Mankiw.....suffers from bad math. He believe outsourcing is good and with math, this is with the mathematics.
For it is dead wrong about necessary surplus of winnings over losings—as I proved in my “Little Nobel Lecture of 1972” (1972b) and elsewhere in references here cited (see also Johnson and Stafford, 1993; Gomory and Baumol, 2000). The present paper provides explication of the popular polemical untruth.
the mathematics are spattered throughout but in a nutshell he says when the outsourced country has productivity gains through innovation that is enough to cause the other country to cut production, that 2nd country will lose in trade equilibrium.
i.e. not a win-win and it's some pretty simple math too. Samuelson is just using the model and plugging in a few scenarios.
in your poll, "which single policy was the worst for the U.S.?"
well you left out the Community Reinvestment Act. that is the single worst policy that has simply destroyed the country and should be put on there. im sure you wont cause then Democrat would be at fault, and we cant have that can we. the truth, noooo nobody wants to know that. just keep blaming Bush.
"Fresh water economics uses difficult mathematical tools. Students in fresh water graduate programs have to learn a huge amount of math very fast. It is not possible to do so if one doesn't set aside all doubt as to the validity of the approach. Once the huge investment has been made it is psychologically difficult to decide that it was wasted."
This part I have firsthand experience with and it is very true, but the flip side may be even more important; namely, those students who are capable of doing the math but do not accept the basic assumptions, soon realize that they will have no future in the profession, and drop out. This leaves only the true believers behind -- and there is a great deal of money to be made by being a -shill- er, true believer.
BTW, Stirling Newberry is a composer. I am not sure that he has any formal training in economics at all; but his ideas are very interesting and he is a terrific writer. Don't forget, it was musicians who cracked the Japanese code in WW2!
... without any of the radical right wingers in the House ... that's what all of the real manuvering is about. The talks with House Republicans is pure puppet theatre.
... most of the rail programs that are getting additional funding under the House bill ...
... of course, "Buy American" provisions on rail funding is especially safe since everyone does it, so there's nobody to raise a complaint in the WTO ... all the Europeans have national content requirements, Japan has, and China quite famously has generated complaints from doing the same thing.
Politicians in the US do not have the balls to do this - the mantra of globalization will get in the way. The US has set up a one way street where the Indians look after their own and US citizens and displaced from jobs in their own country.
and I agree with you so all I can say is call your Senators at this point and demand they add those conditions. US workers preferred (U.S. citizens perms) or something to this effort or....pass S.1035 as a stand alone, intact, as is.
That is a bill from last Congress to reform the H-1B and L-1 Visa programs.
I have a feeling that all of the stimulus for laid off Information Technology American workers will just go to IBM, Accenture, TCS, Wipro - who in turn will hire a bunch of h1bs.
Does anybody know if there is an amendment to only hire american workers in this free money give away?
Sometimes in dense analysis I borrow the graphs for a picture is worth a thousand words.
But still, I'm just not going to be a believer (except on known infrastructure jobs which a report today came out about our crumbling bridges) on which component is going to generate x jobs....until I see a directly analysis on each component, generating y U.S. worker jobs.
I especially do not trust Democrats (or Republicans) to not give offshore outsourcers billions. They already have and they will not even breath on how offshore outsourcing of jobs is one of the reasons we are in this mess.
I wish tax cuts were a dead religion. But the Republicans just won't give it up. God, I'm hoping a dead elephant falls on top of Grover Norquist some day soon.
I'd suggest simply update it to now be current and then take what is relevant in the original and repost.
Many of the writings from the people on here are not that "time dependent" which ya know blogs really are.
So, I personally think it's fine to update older writings and just bring them up to current, revised and repost them.
Matter of fact I have a few that I should consider doing that.
It's kind of a bummer when people write timeless detailed posts with all sorts of references, analysis and it's shelf life is 24 hours (on EP the shelf life of post I have purposely make longer, because of this and still looking to improve that)
I just kind of wrote an opinion piece (speckled with tax analysis) on the non-debate debate.
Yes, both sides are driving me nuts because this should be a very careful analysis, each component should have a "jobs created" and "when created" by each section and none of this 'oh 1% spending = 1% GDP growth' stuff.
I don't think that is quite valid because they passed the last "Stimulus" with those exact assumptions and obviously GDP contracted 5.5%. Now I don't know if the economy would have contracted more or not...but I find it too odious, to "theoretical" to general to spend so much damn money where just the interest is more than the tax cuts and we're running the biggest deficit in the entire history of the United States.
But yeah, both parties with this fictional non issue dance or policy absurdity just drives me nuts.
...but when will the folks on the Obama team take to the public square and start telling it like it is in a comprehensive and understandable way?
The public's perception is being warped by the Republican lies on the CBO report, bloviating about the deficit, being 'locked out of the process...' and what do we get from the Obama team?
This sort of garbled message but mostly...
(((((((((((((((((((((crickets)))))))))))))))))))
It doesn't take more than a week or so of uncontested lies from the MSM and the 'conservative' bloviation machine and all of a sudden....
....Dems are amending the package to be more 'bi-partisan'. The truly weird thing is that most, not all, but most online commentators, and McClatchy are all over this sort of thing.
The public? Maybe not.
Reich is a smart guy but he is part of the problem. See his stint with the 'Masters of the Universe'. I am more than willing to give any member of the Obama admin the benefit of the doubt despite my opposition to his candidacy but...
...they gotta do better than this. Just being '...not Bush...' is not going to be enough.
is my take. I think I know what he was trying to say and yes I agree, this tape is outrageous and he royally screwed the pooch and is probably significantly out of touch. But I also think he got Obama fever during the primary and there too abandoned objective policy analysis.
I think he was trying to point out there is serious economic injustice in this country....which is true and he was trying to say distribution of projects to address that might be in order...although I think pickin some special interest groups is a mistake because the people who need the most help do not have well paid lobbyist to scream and shout for them in D.C....most notable the entire U.S. middle class.
On the other hand, his talks on income/wealth inequality and other things are well cited, thought out...
So, I think he should realize his error on this one and get economically serious but not throw out the baby with the bathwater.
but, they gots the power.
What he is referring to is a paper, and now they are in blogging wars on how Fema did not follow basic macro economic precepts, laws.
He is not blasting neoclassical or macro economics, he is using it in his argument.
Mankiw.....suffers from bad math. He believe outsourcing is good and with math, this is with the mathematics.
New York Times explaining in layman's terms.
Paul Samuelson's paper, Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream
Economists Supporting Globalization directly refutes Mankiw (in addition to Bhagwati)
the mathematics are spattered throughout but in a nutshell he says when the outsourced country has productivity gains through innovation that is enough to cause the other country to cut production, that 2nd country will lose in trade equilibrium.
i.e. not a win-win and it's some pretty simple math too. Samuelson is just using the model and plugging in a few scenarios.
in your poll, "which single policy was the worst for the U.S.?"
well you left out the Community Reinvestment Act. that is the single worst policy that has simply destroyed the country and should be put on there. im sure you wont cause then Democrat would be at fault, and we cant have that can we. the truth, noooo nobody wants to know that. just keep blaming Bush.
I will try to put the basic information in as reader-friendly a form as I can, in the concluding post.
"Fresh water economics uses difficult mathematical tools. Students in fresh water graduate programs have to learn a huge amount of math very fast. It is not possible to do so if one doesn't set aside all doubt as to the validity of the approach. Once the huge investment has been made it is psychologically difficult to decide that it was wasted."
This part I have firsthand experience with and it is very true, but the flip side may be even more important; namely, those students who are capable of doing the math but do not accept the basic assumptions, soon realize that they will have no future in the profession, and drop out. This leaves only the true believers behind -- and there is a great deal of money to be made by being a -shill- er, true believer.
BTW, Stirling Newberry is a composer. I am not sure that he has any formal training in economics at all; but his ideas are very interesting and he is a terrific writer. Don't forget, it was musicians who cracked the Japanese code in WW2!
... without any of the radical right wingers in the House ... that's what all of the real manuvering is about. The talks with House Republicans is pure puppet theatre.
... most of the rail programs that are getting additional funding under the House bill ...
... of course, "Buy American" provisions on rail funding is especially safe since everyone does it, so there's nobody to raise a complaint in the WTO ... all the Europeans have national content requirements, Japan has, and China quite famously has generated complaints from doing the same thing.
They cannot possibly consider honoring all of those derivatives. These people are insane.
And the constructive criticism about the basic information needed to follow the anaysis to be put in 'a box' in the post is a good idea
Politicians in the US do not have the balls to do this - the mantra of globalization will get in the way. The US has set up a one way street where the Indians look after their own and US citizens and displaced from jobs in their own country.
Even get a seat at the table at this point. They had six years of unfettered control of all three branches of government, the Treasury and the FED.
I think they have done enough damage with their constant drum beating.
It has always been about class warfare.
and I agree with you so all I can say is call your Senators at this point and demand they add those conditions. US workers preferred (U.S. citizens perms) or something to this effort or....pass S.1035 as a stand alone, intact, as is.
That is a bill from last Congress to reform the H-1B and L-1 Visa programs.
I have a feeling that all of the stimulus for laid off Information Technology American workers will just go to IBM, Accenture, TCS, Wipro - who in turn will hire a bunch of h1bs.
Does anybody know if there is an amendment to only hire american workers in this free money give away?
Sometimes in dense analysis I borrow the graphs for a picture is worth a thousand words.
But still, I'm just not going to be a believer (except on known infrastructure jobs which a report today came out about our crumbling bridges) on which component is going to generate x jobs....until I see a directly analysis on each component, generating y U.S. worker jobs.
I especially do not trust Democrats (or Republicans) to not give offshore outsourcers billions. They already have and they will not even breath on how offshore outsourcing of jobs is one of the reasons we are in this mess.
and I have not seen it before. Thanks!
I wish tax cuts were a dead religion. But the Republicans just won't give it up. God, I'm hoping a dead elephant falls on top of Grover Norquist some day soon.
I'd suggest simply update it to now be current and then take what is relevant in the original and repost.
Many of the writings from the people on here are not that "time dependent" which ya know blogs really are.
So, I personally think it's fine to update older writings and just bring them up to current, revised and repost them.
Matter of fact I have a few that I should consider doing that.
It's kind of a bummer when people write timeless detailed posts with all sorts of references, analysis and it's shelf life is 24 hours (on EP the shelf life of post I have purposely make longer, because of this and still looking to improve that)
if I don't post it, holler me a reminder. Unless I can just post the April 2008 original. Euthanize Wall Street to save the economy
I just kind of wrote an opinion piece (speckled with tax analysis) on the non-debate debate.
Yes, both sides are driving me nuts because this should be a very careful analysis, each component should have a "jobs created" and "when created" by each section and none of this 'oh 1% spending = 1% GDP growth' stuff.
I don't think that is quite valid because they passed the last "Stimulus" with those exact assumptions and obviously GDP contracted 5.5%. Now I don't know if the economy would have contracted more or not...but I find it too odious, to "theoretical" to general to spend so much damn money where just the interest is more than the tax cuts and we're running the biggest deficit in the entire history of the United States.
But yeah, both parties with this fictional non issue dance or policy absurdity just drives me nuts.
...but when will the folks on the Obama team take to the public square and start telling it like it is in a comprehensive and understandable way?
The public's perception is being warped by the Republican lies on the CBO report, bloviating about the deficit, being 'locked out of the process...' and what do we get from the Obama team?
This sort of garbled message but mostly...
(((((((((((((((((((((crickets)))))))))))))))))))
It doesn't take more than a week or so of uncontested lies from the MSM and the 'conservative' bloviation machine and all of a sudden....
....Dems are amending the package to be more 'bi-partisan'. The truly weird thing is that most, not all, but most online commentators, and McClatchy are all over this sort of thing.
The public? Maybe not.
Reich is a smart guy but he is part of the problem. See his stint with the 'Masters of the Universe'. I am more than willing to give any member of the Obama admin the benefit of the doubt despite my opposition to his candidacy but...
...they gotta do better than this. Just being '...not Bush...' is not going to be enough.
is my take. I think I know what he was trying to say and yes I agree, this tape is outrageous and he royally screwed the pooch and is probably significantly out of touch. But I also think he got Obama fever during the primary and there too abandoned objective policy analysis.
I think he was trying to point out there is serious economic injustice in this country....which is true and he was trying to say distribution of projects to address that might be in order...although I think pickin some special interest groups is a mistake because the people who need the most help do not have well paid lobbyist to scream and shout for them in D.C....most notable the entire U.S. middle class.
On the other hand, his talks on income/wealth inequality and other things are well cited, thought out...
So, I think he should realize his error on this one and get economically serious but not throw out the baby with the bathwater.
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