Snow, snow, look at the snow. This is a line from a pre-school first reader book and the last economic indicator reports are quite similar. All of a sudden everything is blamed on the weather, in a repetitive, rhyming pattern.
Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in January following a gain of 0.7 percent in December. Manufacturing production rose 1.0 percent in January, with increases for most of its major components, while the indexes for both utilities and mining advanced 0.7 percent. At 101.1 percent of its 2002 average, output in January was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose 0.7 percentage point to 72.6 percent, a rate 8.0 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009.
Of the major groups, even construction had a positive gain of 1%, but down -5.3% for the year.
To put this is context, here is a graph of industrial production from right before the start of this recession.
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December 2009 was released last Friday, but it's significant and I want to cover it for completeness sake, even though this post is quite late.
Industrial Production has increased 0.8% from last month. Manufacturing increased 1.1% with gains in both durables and non-durable goods. This is good news. Mines (think about the price of commodities recently), increased 2.1% from last month. Utilities decreased -1.8%, blamed on mild temperatures.
Here is the graph of industrial production since the official start of this recession, the index is now at 2002 levels:
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization numbers are out for September 2009. Industrial production increased 0.7%, which is down from a 1.2% increase in August.
On Q3 2009, things are looking better:
For the third quarter as a whole, output advanced at an annual rate of 5.2 percent, the first quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2008 and the largest gain since the first quarter of 2005.
Total industrial production is still down 6.1% from it's September 2008 level.
Capacity utilization is now 70.5%, up 0.6% from last month but still down 4% from September last year.
Seems we have another cash for clunkers wonder. Minus autos industrial production increased 0.4%. So, this is the second month industrial production rose.
Industrial output rose 0.8 percent in August, following an upwardly revised increase of 1.0 percent in July. Production in manufacturing expanded 0.6 percent in August, and the index excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 percent. The gain in July for manufacturing was revised up 0.4 percentage point, to 1.4 percent; in addition, factory output for April through June is now somewhat less weak than reported previously. Production at mines moved up 0.5 percent in August. The output of utilities gained 1.9 percent, as temperatures swung from an unseasonably mild July to a slightly warmer-than-usual August. At 97.4 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 10.7 percent below its level of a year earlier. In August, the capacity utilization rate for total industry advanced to 69.6 percent, a level 11.3 percentage points below its average for the period 1972 through 2008.
Last month's Industrial production and capacity utilization data was spun to some glorious V for victory recovery, at which point I noted a contraction is a contraction, which is what last months data was.
I've been looking over industrial production and capacity utilization for July 2009, trying to analyze a trend. July's industrial production index rose to 96.0.
Here is last months graph, not including this months number, zeroing in on this depression recession.
Industrial production shrank less than forecast and a New York regional factory gauge showed the smallest contraction in more than a year, signaling manufacturing is on the verge of stabilizing.
Folks, here is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production & Capacity release:
The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell to 70.9 percent, a rate 10 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2008. This rate matches the historical low for this series, which was recorded in December 1982; the data for total industrial utilization begin in 1967.
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