so forgive me if I don't credit it though I can honestly say I didn't come up with it, but I once heard that the main reason to keep the status quo was too many jobs and money tied to the current way.

The criminal element targets the middle class and wealthy for kidnapping and such. Honestly, I feel for them, the horror stories I hear. Still, the border needs to be secured, otherwise you're gonna have almost a no-mans land between parts of the Southwest and northern Mexico.

This isn't an exchange, it's a central counterparty (CCP). CME Group operates other exchanges, but this isn't one of them. Exchanges and CCPs are fundamentally different entities.

You are correct it isn't an exchange in the normal sense.  But before I decided to reply to you, I made some phone calls to both exchanges and their respective clearing corps.  As for the exchange, well allow me to break some news for you, the CME and ICE plan on making it a full fledged exchange for these swaps via their respective platforms.

In any event, the SEC already approved the main CCP for CDS (ICE Trust), and it's been clearing CDS for a couple weeks now. CME Group is irrelevant, and I doubt it'll ever get any volume. ICE Trust has the backing of the major dealer banks, so it will dominate the clearing of CDS.

First let me say it does not matter to me who "dominates," I own shares in ICE (CMEG at $256 a share is too rich for me), so the question on this is actually irellevent.  Who will have the lion share of this market though isn't clear cut.  Remember when the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE, now Euronext LIFFE) used to dominate in certain interest rate products then the Frankfort-based Eurex ate their lunch?  I will say this, there is something of an animosity or competition between New York and Chicago's financial markets.  Chicago has come to dominate derivatives markets in the US, and this is New York's chance to take a piece of the action; ironically enough ICE has offices here and is headquartered in Atlanta.  The CME has gotten big, especially after it purchased it's long-time rival the old Chicago Board of Trade; for many it seems as if they were "too big."

You stated volume, well the CME's thing just got off the ground, give it time. Saying that, and in the spirit of fairness, they are having issues.  Bloomberg has a story where the CME is having problems lining up customers. But we'll see if they get some.  Now, after talking with both on the phone, the ICE version has 7 dealers while the CME is looking to have more than this.  It should prove interesting how that turns out. Also, if it looks like they can get a better deal at the CMDX they will go to it, and there is nothing that says that Goldman or JP won't also operate there as well.  But like I previously state, it remains to be seen and it doesn't matter which one dominates; may the best platform win.

Also, central clearing doesn't have anything to do with "closing out" CDS trades. It just substitutes the CCP as the counterparty to both sides of an already-agreed-upon trade.

Where did I say central clearing did this?  I've never stated they closed anything.  Please re-read what I typed.

 And what makes you think "everyone wants out" of CDS trades? That's not even remotely true. If anything, everyone wants into CDS trades, because they're the best way to hedge credit risk, and because the CDS market was literally the only market to remain reliably liquid during the post-Lehman panic selling.

I was referring to positions where the counterparty is bankrupt and gone. I also never stated that people weren't looking to initiate new positions. Credit Default Swaps do make an excellent hedge, where did I make the opposite claim?  Also, no one is arguing about liquidity here. 

You seem to think that I meant that the sky was falling on CDSes, and if that is what you got from what I typed, then I should have said it better.  I've long promoted Swaps.

Finally, the idea that there "hasn't been an exit [for CDS trades] until now" doesn't even pass the laugh test. Of course there's an exit: just call your counterparty and buy out the risky PV of the remaining coupon stream. Happens every hour of every day. Or just buy an offsetting CDS

Trust me, no one is laughing.  Once more, you assumed that I'm of the opinion that the whole thing collapsed.  But you have a lot of these CDS where the payout isn't happening.  If it was such good working order, then why the hell is the CME and ICE even doing this?  If Goldman and JP Morgan were able to do this on their own, they would have.  Just because you can get a quote on a Bloomberg terminal doesn't mean you're going to trade at that price. 

You know, I find it humorous that you had to go on to attack me because I posted a news article.  Perhaps I was to broad in my message, I will grant you that.  But nowhere did the idea of derivatives as a bad instrument come into what I typed.  You seemed to be into derivatives like I am, and I look forward to seeing more posts from you.  But at least lets be gentlemen about this.

trying to get this material together, written, and uploaded, as part of the process of getting a general idea of what we need for a new "industrial mobilization." The scary part is that there is hardly anyone doing studies along these lines - great national projects that can drive the economy forward, the way the Interstate Highway System and the Apollo Moon Program did. If we survive the coming economic maelstrom unleashed by the financial follies of the past three decades, I'm sure that these numbers will end up being wildly at variance with the reality of what needs to be built - especially because the sprawl of American urban areas grievously distorts the numbers. Bottom line to my purpose - get people thinking BIG.

Regarding paying for it - on the side I'm reading Bray Hammond's account of how the Union financed the Civil War, looking for details of Lincoln's greenbacks, which the big bankers like Morgan hated so much. I'm pretty certain we're going to end up democratizing the Fed, and issuing Treasury notes directly as legal tender as payment for building these types of infrastructure projects.

care to respond?

anonymous drive-by Nick, I hope you consider creating an account. EP is a community site which means if you wish to write posts you can by creating an account. Sounds like you have some insight here into these CDS trades we could use.

Awesome detailed post but we're burning cash to the point I and I am not alone, am wondering about a national default on the debt and potential for hyper inflation down the road.

We do not even have details from the Federal Reserve on precisely how they are going to "wind down" this massive money printing press they have turned on.

So, whipping out trillions in more spending, uh.....

Also, in terms of systems, this needs to be analyzed in my view, much, much more. So far I see continual politics, inefficiencies and philosophies versus real cost effectiveness.

Firstly, the entire paradigm of the 9-5 (actually 8-7) daily commute to the office is stuck in the last century. One does not have to be physically present with virtual offices, teleconferencing, instant messaging, online collaboration and so on. That would cut down on demand as well as energy costs enormously if corporations would stop this silliness of requiring people to be stuck in some cube at some office.

Then, the idea that one must concentrate large populations into "cities" goes along with the above.

While the assumption is one must "end suburban sprawl", in fact I see technology being able to more enable the spreading out of small regional areas, of distributed communities, not the opposite.

Then, local transport. Local transport sorely lacks in the United States. This is your basic getting around a city without a car.

So call me a naysayer but I think many of the underlying assumptions on some of this are simply wrong.

Another problem is overall population in the United States, which completely affects the amount of transport needed. If they insist on turning the United States into China/India by unlimited immigration, which appears to be the great corporate goal....then we will have the same massive problems these countries have due to excessive population...

but if they get a grip on labor economic realities and the burdens of a massive population per nation-state, then there will not be as great of a need.

Believe me, I am all for public transport projects, especially where it makes sense but this is a engineering system/routing issue in my view, taking into account a variety of factors and variables....

I think BruceMF has mentioned the Chicago politics many times and as a result, one does not even have an efficient system set up to get across the town.

Nice to see you back Tony and don't take my criticism too harshly...I just get the impression people are jumping on some sort of philosophy instead of thinking this through as a system, as an engineered system, the inputs into it, the technological realities of the day as well as future, and how to cost effectively manage that system.

Terrific Post....thanks for all your hard work.

I'd forgotten about Penn Square/Continental Illinois precedent...my outrage meter had kinda stopped at the S&L debacle.

Too bad this kind of analysis never makes it to the political blogorama- dome where all we get is full time Kabuki theater from both the left and the right. The lefties spend all their time re-crucifying Bill Clinton, with an occasional snarl at Phil and Wendy Gramm and the righties have the vapours over impending socialism.

Political Contributions are nothing but BRIBE MONEY, QUIP PRO QUO. Companies being BAILED OUT make large contributions to Congressional/Senatorial members of the federal government and to State politicians. This must end to preserve our republic

Incredibly important, thanks