Banks are facing civil and criminal penalties for manipulating LIBOR, any chance that anyone in the Census Bureau will face similar penalties? didn't think so.
Environmental activist Bill Talen, more commonly known as Reverend Billy, could be facing up to a year in prison for organizing a musical protest that brought singing, dancing activists to a Manhattan JP Morgan Chase Bank last month — all dressed as frogs.
Been saying this for a long time now. Banksters and CEOs lobby/own DOJ, Treasury, Fed, Congress, state capitals, IMF, etc. Never lose power ever. They write new laws to break/crush competition and protect own power. Any old laws they break they lobby to be protected from enforcement. See SEC, CFTC, DOJ, etc. CEOs and boards never personally responsible for anything negative, but only for how "great and best and brightest" they are. BOA can forge signatures on thousands of foreclosures, no consequences. Dimon/JP Morgan White Whale illegal trades, Alabama bribery cases, manipulation of oil, aluminum, silver, etc. Mortgage fraud, bribery elsewhere. Oops, let's not forget working with Corzine and MF Global to launder and steal money to destroy farmers and other clients. And on. And on. And on.
Now, has Dimon been charged? Indicted? Handcuffed? Ever seen a day in court? On probation? Parole? Has he ever eaten dogsh*t for lunch in a federal or state pen and had a shank coming his way like small time crooks or regular inmates face? NOPE! Blankein? NOPE! Corzine? NOPE!
But bribe one cop, one legislator, as a small time guy. Fix the price in a single business in a small town. See what happens. You'll be charged within one day and go to court, face a misdemeanor or felony conviction, and be bankrupt due to expenses alone. Then your life will be destroyed.
But hey, you ain't a banksta or CEO of a big corp. or a member of Congress. In other words, George Carlin's small club doesn't apply to you, because you ain't in it. USA 2013 = Living the Plutocrats' Dream = It Sucks for the 99.99% of us that used to believe in hard work, learning, and being honest. But hey, at least we can help fund Dimon's corporate fine if anyone still banks with that douche. Or if he loses $ still (as they have done despite sitting on the FED and receiving free tax money aka being completely inept businessmen that actually lose on free and controlled bets) he can always grab our loot through his govt. puppets. Ah, ain't life grand? Now what do teachers and parents tell kids in this Hell? Why should people start families here? Why look to bust ass in some gig to perpetuate this? Hard work and honesty pay off? What lies.
Sure, any business can write off legal costs and I believe that would include fines and they might even get more tax breaks due to the nature of $2 billion being funneled into "blight".
These mortgages are primarily from WaMu, so hmmm, how many people were foreclosed on and how much profits did they make in the end over toxic mortgages? I'm sure it doesn't even come close to the fine.
I have an image in my head of the CFO's offices inside these large multinationals where they are playing Candyland, moving figures around ledgers until no matter what they do, they win on the balance sheet.
Later I'll try to do an overview on inventories with a guesstimate. Yet, I just checked, no data detail on the nondurable goods manufacturers' inventories in this release and if the BEA is using unpublished data for inventories, a guesstimate will be off, but I'll note that as well.
While we can deal with revisions right, especially for September and new data, if they are using "unpublished" data for the entire year and we do not have it, we're sunk in terms of number crunching and worse, uh, what exactly is the NIPA inputs and where does that come from if it is not available to the public from the Census?
This is just so uncool, it is 2013 and there must be at least 5 million people who know how to use spreadsheets well in this country and we should have all data publicly available that goes into these statistical releases. Makes me question the integrity of these reports as well.
most census employees are career number crunchers; it wouldnt surprise me that some started work there under Reagan...so their politics is probably in a similar proportion to that of the population...if it was known in the agency that some were fudging reports to make Obama look better, those opposed to him could much more easily switch employed to unemployed than vice-versa, cause there are more of them...
just saw a headline that business inventories rose 0.6 percent in September; havent seen the report yet but it appears the BEA "assumption" for the month was way off..
The article is implying more than 4 of the 2200 are falsifying survey results. I only covered this because over and over again we have CPS results that are so screwy I cannot track down the variance, within the normal error margins.
That said, I frankly don't believe the New York Post. Prove it, let's have an investigation, testimony, evidence.
But guess what I discovered, the BEA used unpublished inventory data in their manufacturing inventories and God knows what else. *That* is not the first time I've found not publicly available data being used in their government statistical reports and to me that is extremely uncool.
That's why I covered the Post article. Clearly there was one person and 4 out of 2200 doesn't seem out of bounds when we tally up the questions per interviewee and the number of surveys each employee would have to obtain. Sick kid, want to take off, oops, just a little fudgy.
if 2200 census employees interview 60,000 households representing 110,000 individuals per month, that means each employee is responsible for 50 responses to the survey...since most of those are employed already, the opportuntiy to switch survey answers from unemployed is minimal...with the labor force participation rate less than 65%, the average number of unemployed each employee would interview would be around 4...with each survey answer representing around 22K in the final totals, it's unlikely one rouge employee could reduce the number of uemployed by more than 100K...with a margin of error of +/- 300,000 in the monthly change in the number unemployed and +/- 0.2% in the employment rate, it would take at least 4 employees falsifying every unemployed person they interview to swing a change larger than the margin of error...
When the line opened with "oh 400 people make half of the income but you should be GLAD"....
they "give" so much I about threw up. They give to 3rd world and want to offshore outsource more jobs, not America.
Disgusting and that's the third "story" of 60 MInutes in a matter of months which proves they are corrupted.
Ha, yeah, it's me. Anyway, I tore myself away from books and knowledge to watch TBTF/PTB TV to see those assclowns Buffett and Gates on "60 Minutes." Anyway, the Oracle of Omaha, you know, the same guy who was born to a member of Congress and inherited wealth, and Gates, you know, the guy that loves ripping other people's genius and ideas, not paying them for it, and then lobbying the DOJ and others to protect his ill-gotten wealth were just on "60 Minutes" talking about what great philanthropists they are. Now I'm not sure what Buffett did exactly regarding ideas or anything novel (besides lobbying the White House directly, getting sweet deals regarding Goldman, etc.), and I'm sure Gates ripped many of his ideas, made loot off them, and now perjured himself in front of Congress regarding "lack of qualified Americans" (see Youtube for the evidence) so he can abuse visas. And then he's got the antitrust issues, IP theft issues, etc.
But hey, these scumbags have PR firms kicking ass for them and the masses on "60 Minutes" literally talking about how Gates is helping rid the world of polio. NOT ONE MENTION OF SALK! Not one! Jesus, Salk, the man who said he wouldn't/couldn't profit from helping prevent polio, is now being drowned out in his grave by these dicks! Imagine Gates or Buffett in this interview?
Edward R. Murrow: Who owns the patent on this vaccine?
Jonas Salk: Well, the people, I would say. There is no patent. Could you patent the sun?
But Jonas, didn't you realize people that aren't millionaires or billionaires or were willing to crush the competition were/are jacksh*t in the world in 2013? Why, unless you crush everyone and profit off everything and rule other people's lives, how could you matter in the grand scheme of things? I mean, really, if you don't appear in movies or in boardrooms or in a Senator's house or on "60 Minutes" or in Forbes you are nothing. Come on now, greed and press and winning is all, humanity and ethics and humility and modesty be damned.
USA 2013! Because $$ and fame is all!! And people that barely make a living wage donating to worthy causes don't matter at all when compared to boardroom billionaires that use "philanthropy" merely as another tool to lobby for what they want and as another tool in their arsenal to make more money for themselves. Oops, was I not supposed to know that? Was I supposed to believe they were doing it out of the goodness of their hearts?
And I think the lady that founded Spanx was also on TV. Ain't our country great?! Tesla is a zero in our history books. He'll never get press or airtime. Salk is jacksh*t. But hey, Spanx founder and Buffett and Gates and all these others tools are on TV and running our Nation through their punks in DC and state capitals and the TV studios. Well, time to up the glue sniffage because my brain is always getting in the way of just getting along with the blue pill bullsh*t. Duh, Gates is good, duh, Buffett is rich = he must be smart and ethical, Spanx founder is rich = she must be more qualified than me to have a voice in my Nation's policies. WTF, put a fork in the USA, because WE'RE DONE!
It's amazing what these people do with their PR and endless crap. Read, read, turn off the TV, and read some more. This country is Rome 400 AD. Realize. Oh, look, the scum in DC and the corporate boardrooms want to destroy us internally and externally for a few pennies more (and a few more ass-kissing articles more) and then will blame us for our downfall. Awesome, what complete d*cks.
Still not going to write up wholesale inventories with a GDP estimator. I succumbed to try to get data discrepancies addressed again by emailing the BEA, last time I got blown off ++.
We'll see but bottom line, I'm not matching their technical note on inventories so, I would prefer to wait for retail inventories and do the previous method to estimate by the "big picture".
Got a problem and the old sayin'....
garbage in equals garbage out and when one cannot match up the original assumptions, that's some serious garbage dump in to any revision guesstimate.
Could it just be that October is the latest month available, so that by choosing this month to perform the annual comparison, the most up-to-date analysis of trend is possible? Sometimes a simple explanation is better than a theory of conspiracy.
We just saw a 0.8 percentage point increase in wholesale inventories but unless I'm missing some data released here, I'm not going to calculate this without all of the inventories available for September.
They might have a correlation of wholesale to retail but with only 1/3rd of the inventory data released, seems premature to predict the revision, unless I am missing something.
Still, there is a lot pointing to a jump in inventories in other reports. So, they are right again, that's not good news with weak demand and would imply a low Q4 GDP if businesses curtailed production as a result of inventories stockpiling on their shelves unsold., but to me that's much more for a retail figure.
Thing is industrial production in manufacturing did increase. Maybe I should do that overview now, industrial production.
I think that last part is going to be our downfall. Too many people don't deal well with change, and they have to if we have any hope. Too many people still have in their heads that somehow we are going to get back to where we were, and we are not. Not in our lifetime, perhaps never. But life is still worth living, and to give up means giving in to the bastards that continue to profit from our misery. We could organize, protect ourselves, cooperate with each other and insure our housing and food, put economic pressure on employers who don't hire enough older workers at a decent salary, change some elections - but it is going to take giving up the mindset of the Reagan Democrat and become adults who realize that what they have is because of the sacrifices of those who came before us, not the things we have because of the debt we have been accumulating by selling our freedoms for the past 40 years.
They did it in the labor movements from 1865 to about 1930, and we can do it again, but we have to set aside that illusion of security we lived with for so many years, and immerse ourselves in getting free again.
Yep, I am 47. And after working for 25 years at the same company and finally having my hours cut down, and down, until I was only working a ridiculous one day a week... I quit. ($40.00 an hour was what i made) I thought I would find a job, and I did. But they were only temporary. The last company couldn't even afford to keep me working at $14.00 an hour due to the ''recession''. Basically, I have been unemployed for 6 years off and on, never got a dime of unemployment, and finally had to go live at my Mom's house. But after having it all... A good job, hot girlfriends, lot's of friends, a new truck every few years, and a nice pad.... I have lost everything. After dating many beautiful women, I now haven't been on even one date in years. My self confidence is gone.
It is way too late for me now. Plan B is starting to sound peaceful. I used to fear death... Now I look forward to it. Boy, this country is in deep trouble! I feel sorry for the survivors. What a waste of a life mine was.
Well, I've gotten lucky on the effect of trade on the next revision so far but price indexes, which showed a 0.2% "overall" inflation today but are this massive individualized set of indexes could really throw off the guesstimate, still I'd say best case would be 0.2 percentage points. We'll see.
We should keep a prediction widget to see how many of these are correct over time.
I have issues with some of these statistics but it's most often unpublished data, methods and so on, never intentional malfeasance.
The New York Post is big on claiming the "government is lying to us" and frankly understandably so, especially Congress and the White House.
So, I think all of the government statistical branches should be audited, but not by politicians, by statisticians. ;)
Banks are facing civil and criminal penalties for manipulating LIBOR, any chance that anyone in the Census Bureau will face similar penalties? didn't think so.
hell, you can even go to jail for singing at JP Morgan Chase:
Environmental activist Bill Talen, more commonly known as Reverend Billy, could be facing up to a year in prison for organizing a musical protest that brought singing, dancing activists to a Manhattan JP Morgan Chase Bank last month — all dressed as frogs.
Been saying this for a long time now. Banksters and CEOs lobby/own DOJ, Treasury, Fed, Congress, state capitals, IMF, etc. Never lose power ever. They write new laws to break/crush competition and protect own power. Any old laws they break they lobby to be protected from enforcement. See SEC, CFTC, DOJ, etc. CEOs and boards never personally responsible for anything negative, but only for how "great and best and brightest" they are. BOA can forge signatures on thousands of foreclosures, no consequences. Dimon/JP Morgan White Whale illegal trades, Alabama bribery cases, manipulation of oil, aluminum, silver, etc. Mortgage fraud, bribery elsewhere. Oops, let's not forget working with Corzine and MF Global to launder and steal money to destroy farmers and other clients. And on. And on. And on.
Now, has Dimon been charged? Indicted? Handcuffed? Ever seen a day in court? On probation? Parole? Has he ever eaten dogsh*t for lunch in a federal or state pen and had a shank coming his way like small time crooks or regular inmates face? NOPE! Blankein? NOPE! Corzine? NOPE!
But bribe one cop, one legislator, as a small time guy. Fix the price in a single business in a small town. See what happens. You'll be charged within one day and go to court, face a misdemeanor or felony conviction, and be bankrupt due to expenses alone. Then your life will be destroyed.
But hey, you ain't a banksta or CEO of a big corp. or a member of Congress. In other words, George Carlin's small club doesn't apply to you, because you ain't in it. USA 2013 = Living the Plutocrats' Dream = It Sucks for the 99.99% of us that used to believe in hard work, learning, and being honest. But hey, at least we can help fund Dimon's corporate fine if anyone still banks with that douche. Or if he loses $ still (as they have done despite sitting on the FED and receiving free tax money aka being completely inept businessmen that actually lose on free and controlled bets) he can always grab our loot through his govt. puppets. Ah, ain't life grand? Now what do teachers and parents tell kids in this Hell? Why should people start families here? Why look to bust ass in some gig to perpetuate this? Hard work and honesty pay off? What lies.
Sure, any business can write off legal costs and I believe that would include fines and they might even get more tax breaks due to the nature of $2 billion being funneled into "blight".
These mortgages are primarily from WaMu, so hmmm, how many people were foreclosed on and how much profits did they make in the end over toxic mortgages? I'm sure it doesn't even come close to the fine.
I have an image in my head of the CFO's offices inside these large multinationals where they are playing Candyland, moving figures around ledgers until no matter what they do, they win on the balance sheet.
Later I'll try to do an overview on inventories with a guesstimate. Yet, I just checked, no data detail on the nondurable goods manufacturers' inventories in this release and if the BEA is using unpublished data for inventories, a guesstimate will be off, but I'll note that as well.
While we can deal with revisions right, especially for September and new data, if they are using "unpublished" data for the entire year and we do not have it, we're sunk in terms of number crunching and worse, uh, what exactly is the NIPA inputs and where does that come from if it is not available to the public from the Census?
This is just so uncool, it is 2013 and there must be at least 5 million people who know how to use spreadsheets well in this country and we should have all data publicly available that goes into these statistical releases. Makes me question the integrity of these reports as well.
NPR is reporting that JP Morgan figures more than half the settlement will be tax deductible..
most census employees are career number crunchers; it wouldnt surprise me that some started work there under Reagan...so their politics is probably in a similar proportion to that of the population...if it was known in the agency that some were fudging reports to make Obama look better, those opposed to him could much more easily switch employed to unemployed than vice-versa, cause there are more of them...
just saw a headline that business inventories rose 0.6 percent in September; havent seen the report yet but it appears the BEA "assumption" for the month was way off..
The article is implying more than 4 of the 2200 are falsifying survey results. I only covered this because over and over again we have CPS results that are so screwy I cannot track down the variance, within the normal error margins.
That said, I frankly don't believe the New York Post. Prove it, let's have an investigation, testimony, evidence.
But guess what I discovered, the BEA used unpublished inventory data in their manufacturing inventories and God knows what else. *That* is not the first time I've found not publicly available data being used in their government statistical reports and to me that is extremely uncool.
That's why I covered the Post article. Clearly there was one person and 4 out of 2200 doesn't seem out of bounds when we tally up the questions per interviewee and the number of surveys each employee would have to obtain. Sick kid, want to take off, oops, just a little fudgy.
Conspiracy and swaying elections, don't think so.
if 2200 census employees interview 60,000 households representing 110,000 individuals per month, that means each employee is responsible for 50 responses to the survey...since most of those are employed already, the opportuntiy to switch survey answers from unemployed is minimal...with the labor force participation rate less than 65%, the average number of unemployed each employee would interview would be around 4...with each survey answer representing around 22K in the final totals, it's unlikely one rouge employee could reduce the number of uemployed by more than 100K...with a margin of error of +/- 300,000 in the monthly change in the number unemployed and +/- 0.2% in the employment rate, it would take at least 4 employees falsifying every unemployed person they interview to swing a change larger than the margin of error...
When the line opened with "oh 400 people make half of the income but you should be GLAD"....
they "give" so much I about threw up. They give to 3rd world and want to offshore outsource more jobs, not America.
Disgusting and that's the third "story" of 60 MInutes in a matter of months which proves they are corrupted.
Ha, yeah, it's me. Anyway, I tore myself away from books and knowledge to watch TBTF/PTB TV to see those assclowns Buffett and Gates on "60 Minutes." Anyway, the Oracle of Omaha, you know, the same guy who was born to a member of Congress and inherited wealth, and Gates, you know, the guy that loves ripping other people's genius and ideas, not paying them for it, and then lobbying the DOJ and others to protect his ill-gotten wealth were just on "60 Minutes" talking about what great philanthropists they are. Now I'm not sure what Buffett did exactly regarding ideas or anything novel (besides lobbying the White House directly, getting sweet deals regarding Goldman, etc.), and I'm sure Gates ripped many of his ideas, made loot off them, and now perjured himself in front of Congress regarding "lack of qualified Americans" (see Youtube for the evidence) so he can abuse visas. And then he's got the antitrust issues, IP theft issues, etc.
But hey, these scumbags have PR firms kicking ass for them and the masses on "60 Minutes" literally talking about how Gates is helping rid the world of polio. NOT ONE MENTION OF SALK! Not one! Jesus, Salk, the man who said he wouldn't/couldn't profit from helping prevent polio, is now being drowned out in his grave by these dicks! Imagine Gates or Buffett in this interview?
Edward R. Murrow: Who owns the patent on this vaccine?
Jonas Salk: Well, the people, I would say. There is no patent. Could you patent the sun?
But Jonas, didn't you realize people that aren't millionaires or billionaires or were willing to crush the competition were/are jacksh*t in the world in 2013? Why, unless you crush everyone and profit off everything and rule other people's lives, how could you matter in the grand scheme of things? I mean, really, if you don't appear in movies or in boardrooms or in a Senator's house or on "60 Minutes" or in Forbes you are nothing. Come on now, greed and press and winning is all, humanity and ethics and humility and modesty be damned.
USA 2013! Because $$ and fame is all!! And people that barely make a living wage donating to worthy causes don't matter at all when compared to boardroom billionaires that use "philanthropy" merely as another tool to lobby for what they want and as another tool in their arsenal to make more money for themselves. Oops, was I not supposed to know that? Was I supposed to believe they were doing it out of the goodness of their hearts?
And I think the lady that founded Spanx was also on TV. Ain't our country great?! Tesla is a zero in our history books. He'll never get press or airtime. Salk is jacksh*t. But hey, Spanx founder and Buffett and Gates and all these others tools are on TV and running our Nation through their punks in DC and state capitals and the TV studios. Well, time to up the glue sniffage because my brain is always getting in the way of just getting along with the blue pill bullsh*t. Duh, Gates is good, duh, Buffett is rich = he must be smart and ethical, Spanx founder is rich = she must be more qualified than me to have a voice in my Nation's policies. WTF, put a fork in the USA, because WE'RE DONE!
It's amazing what these people do with their PR and endless crap. Read, read, turn off the TV, and read some more. This country is Rome 400 AD. Realize. Oh, look, the scum in DC and the corporate boardrooms want to destroy us internally and externally for a few pennies more (and a few more ass-kissing articles more) and then will blame us for our downfall. Awesome, what complete d*cks.
Still not going to write up wholesale inventories with a GDP estimator. I succumbed to try to get data discrepancies addressed again by emailing the BEA, last time I got blown off ++.
We'll see but bottom line, I'm not matching their technical note on inventories so, I would prefer to wait for retail inventories and do the previous method to estimate by the "big picture".
Got a problem and the old sayin'....
garbage in equals garbage out and when one cannot match up the original assumptions, that's some serious garbage dump in to any revision guesstimate.
Could it just be that October is the latest month available, so that by choosing this month to perform the annual comparison, the most up-to-date analysis of trend is possible? Sometimes a simple explanation is better than a theory of conspiracy.
We just saw a 0.8 percentage point increase in wholesale inventories but unless I'm missing some data released here, I'm not going to calculate this without all of the inventories available for September.
They might have a correlation of wholesale to retail but with only 1/3rd of the inventory data released, seems premature to predict the revision, unless I am missing something.
Still, there is a lot pointing to a jump in inventories in other reports. So, they are right again, that's not good news with weak demand and would imply a low Q4 GDP if businesses curtailed production as a result of inventories stockpiling on their shelves unsold., but to me that's much more for a retail figure.
Thing is industrial production in manufacturing did increase. Maybe I should do that overview now, industrial production.
well, J.P. Morgan Chase and Barclays economists raised their 3rd quarter GDP estimates to 3.1%, and Macroeconomic Advisers is now forecasting a revision to a 3.3% growth rate, so we'll see who's closest...but from here it looks like they're out on a limb with insufficient data...
I think that last part is going to be our downfall. Too many people don't deal well with change, and they have to if we have any hope. Too many people still have in their heads that somehow we are going to get back to where we were, and we are not. Not in our lifetime, perhaps never. But life is still worth living, and to give up means giving in to the bastards that continue to profit from our misery. We could organize, protect ourselves, cooperate with each other and insure our housing and food, put economic pressure on employers who don't hire enough older workers at a decent salary, change some elections - but it is going to take giving up the mindset of the Reagan Democrat and become adults who realize that what they have is because of the sacrifices of those who came before us, not the things we have because of the debt we have been accumulating by selling our freedoms for the past 40 years.
They did it in the labor movements from 1865 to about 1930, and we can do it again, but we have to set aside that illusion of security we lived with for so many years, and immerse ourselves in getting free again.
I just don't know if we still have the spirit.
Yep, I am 47. And after working for 25 years at the same company and finally having my hours cut down, and down, until I was only working a ridiculous one day a week... I quit. ($40.00 an hour was what i made) I thought I would find a job, and I did. But they were only temporary. The last company couldn't even afford to keep me working at $14.00 an hour due to the ''recession''. Basically, I have been unemployed for 6 years off and on, never got a dime of unemployment, and finally had to go live at my Mom's house. But after having it all... A good job, hot girlfriends, lot's of friends, a new truck every few years, and a nice pad.... I have lost everything. After dating many beautiful women, I now haven't been on even one date in years. My self confidence is gone.
It is way too late for me now. Plan B is starting to sound peaceful. I used to fear death... Now I look forward to it. Boy, this country is in deep trouble! I feel sorry for the survivors. What a waste of a life mine was.
Well, I've gotten lucky on the effect of trade on the next revision so far but price indexes, which showed a 0.2% "overall" inflation today but are this massive individualized set of indexes could really throw off the guesstimate, still I'd say best case would be 0.2 percentage points. We'll see.
We should keep a prediction widget to see how many of these are correct over time.
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