What a mind and what clear analysis. It's a short essay. He thoroughly debunks the major scare tactic of the budget obsessed male hysterics who embarrassed everybody over the past few weeks. I especially liked the cause-effect point. My minor point added on the Reihart-Rogoff analysis is like picking low hanging fruit. One would think with all the concern among "new age" economists about the influence of regulations, the various regulatory regimes over the 200 years measured would have been a variable. But hey, Shiller took care of the delusions handily.
You hit the high points. I really like the VC fund with domestic only labor and location. There are so many talented people out there ready to rock and there's not much money. Cut our beleaguered Uncle Sam in on a bit of those deals too ongoing and protect ownership of the product for the inventor.
Compare the two debates on fundamental issues - Wisconsin versus the US Congress. There's no contest. God bless the people of Wisconsin and best wishes to a house cleaning recall process.
My sentiment was Bush is worse, but Obama is "wuss." We elected him because he promised to fight for us and he wimped out when fight time came. At the next election, our choice may be between worse and wuss. This ain't our night, kid.
Q2 GDP about $15 trillion, debt, $14 trillion. I think the common problem with debt to GDP is the IMF and OECD. They all use this metric.
Debt cutting though will reduce the economy, no doubt about it. The problem I have generally with deficit spending as stimulus is Keynes made it pretty clear it should be targeted.
The multipliers only work when the funds are kept in the domestic economy plus go directly to the people, the workers, the "consumer".
We never got a stimulus with a real direct jobs problem that keep the funds in the United States and made targeted investments to boot. Say critical infrastructure rebuilding as an example.
Or a state sponsored VC fund where it was required all workers must be U.S. citizens and all production must stay inside the United States, as another.
But bottom line the U.S. economy is smaller than Q4 2007. Plus we have massive people unemployed, on social services to survive and so on, so I like your piece acting like this ratio is static or some real common sense policy and bills wouldn't help the situation out.
Thats...where the snow is thick now. We have all of the politicians touting corporate lobbyist agendas as "jobs" programs and it's positively disgusting.
Trade deals which will lost thousands of jobs, patent law that's all about multinational corporations and nothing about the U.S. innovator...
and these insane GOP who try to claim some tax loophole which makes it even more profitable to offshore outsource jobs is some sort of "jobs program".
Talk about obsessions with precious bodily fluids. Sam's lucky it's just the blood they're after.
If you look at the doctors, you need to ask, "Where were they trained?" That will tell you their diagnostic skills and ability to perform procedures. Many of them have no training, there are a few barbers, and the head of research, Tom "Bug Spray" DeLay has danced himself off to prison somewhere (or not). Their lack of training doesn't stop them.
Poor Uncle Sam. He's tied down like Gulliver but this is no satire. It's become farce with a an all male cast of hysterics. Male hysterics, only in our nation's capital.
Sam needs the good Dr. House, not the charlatans operating now. We can only hope that all the quacks, including the Quack in Chief, lose their licenses and obtain the status of persona non grata. That would get us all well.
Click on this link for a fully illustrated explanation of what went on with "debt negotiations".
Now, I think the fiction is spinning loudly now. We have all sorts of people claiming policies and bills which are project to lose jobs will gain jobs.
It's insane. Right now the bad trade deals are projected to lost at least 200k more jobs.
First to file patents is a disaster, it will turn the small inventory into toast, won't stand a prayer's chance and turn our patent system into something akin to Europe's and elsewhere.
We know how great their innovation engine is ....not.
So, we have bad trade deals, tax holidays that enable more offshore outsourcing, double dutch tax loopholes which really help Ireland get some jobs and of course the never ending demand to really labor arbitrage Americans by turning our education system into a glorified green card ATM, corporate sponsored of course!
I guess hand counting is a pretty good full employment program, but all we really need is durable paper or cardboard ballots that can be machine-counted first followed by automatic hand-counts of random samples, with sample size large enough for 95% to 99% confidence.
This check should be required in every election large enough to make hand-counting unwieldy. The idea of requiring hand recounts (or any recounts) only when the margin between two candidates in less than 3% or whatever ... is patently ridiculous given what we know of computer ("machine") counting of ballots and the ease of hacking that process. It's like closing the side door to the barn when the big doors are swinging wide in the wind.
Meanwhile, we have states in the U.S. (Georgia?) where there is virtually no paper trail whatsoever.
"Its not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes." -- Josef ('Uncle Joe') Stalin
“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile - hoping it will eat him last.” -- Winston Churchill
BTW: What I meant about not judging "the merits on either side of the Russo-Georgian (South Ossetia) war" is just that I had and still have no dog in that fight. In my opinion, the whole thing could best be seen as an opportunistic attempt at reviving the ancient rivalry between Rome and Constantinople -- transposed to Paris/Berlin and St. Petersburg/Moscow.
Like in Romania under Ceeausescu where they kept police files of all typewriters with imprint of the keys or East Germany where the Stasi recorded conversations and kept meticulous records. Plenty of informers on the payroll. I just hope they don't offshore these jobs -- could be a great opportunity for new bureau and lots of contractors. Nation building begins at home!
Folks must not read the details in numbers or something, for the super bad news on PCE as part of the GDP report.
But if they read this site, we estimated PCE would flat line for Q2 and that didn't even include the revisions, so this shouldn't be this huge surprise.
It's extremely important to know how they're spying. I just presume they know anything they want. The good news is that unless you're very wide read, they don't bother with you. Readers and commenters are further down the chain. Pretty soon they list will be an absolute majority, a de facto recall petition.
Don't worry your corporate masters will soon know the names of everyone reading this site.
A bill has just been passed which requires all ISPs to log all its customers and keep a record of the internet sites they visit for 'law enforcement purposes'
"I am not here judging the merits on either side of the Russo-Georgian (South Ossetia) war"?? But why not? McCain was in dangerous territory here -- it took us decades and a trillion dollars to avoid going to war with Russia. But to go to war with Russia over NATO's designs on Georgia? Makes no sense unless yu're willing to (a) make the earth uninhabitable or (b) fight a very costly land war (think of Russian battle deaths in WWII), which we would probably lose. But the other great risk is having Phil Gramm (remember Glass-Steagall repeal and derivatives?) in charge of economic policy. I'll leave it to you to decide which is worserer -- I say all of the above. And so by default we get the current White House as a bunch of brie-eating surrender monkeys in Armani suits. One of their brightest was Peter Orszag (too bad he left) who said recently "Let the tax cuts expire." I couldn't imagine Gramm doing that. Too bad Obama didn't listen to his best advisor.
A+ for incluiding David Kay Johnston in EP links.
Johnston should be required reading for every HS and college course in political science, economics or current events.
What a mind and what clear analysis. It's a short essay. He thoroughly debunks the major scare tactic of the budget obsessed male hysterics who embarrassed everybody over the past few weeks. I especially liked the cause-effect point. My minor point added on the Reihart-Rogoff analysis is like picking low hanging fruit. One would think with all the concern among "new age" economists about the influence of regulations, the various regulatory regimes over the 200 years measured would have been a variable. But hey, Shiller took care of the delusions handily.
Cheers to you!
You hit the high points. I really like the VC fund with domestic only labor and location. There are so many talented people out there ready to rock and there's not much money. Cut our beleaguered Uncle Sam in on a bit of those deals too ongoing and protect ownership of the product for the inventor.
Compare the two debates on fundamental issues - Wisconsin versus the US Congress. There's no contest. God bless the people of Wisconsin and best wishes to a house cleaning recall process.
What is it going to take for something to get done about jobs?
I am almost afraid to know.
A "new" recession? Of course most Americans think we've never gotten out of the one that started in December 2007.
We lurch from misery increasing to misery stagnating. Are we going back to increasing misery again?
My sentiment was Bush is worse, but Obama is "wuss." We elected him because he promised to fight for us and he wimped out when fight time came. At the next election, our choice may be between worse and wuss. This ain't our night, kid.
Rely on David Kay Johnston to go through his archives and dig out some budget reality. Nice historical summary.
We have his column feed now on the left hand column, he's landed at Reuters, which should be good for some real tidbits, finally, on taxes.
Q2 GDP about $15 trillion, debt, $14 trillion. I think the common problem with debt to GDP is the IMF and OECD. They all use this metric.
Debt cutting though will reduce the economy, no doubt about it. The problem I have generally with deficit spending as stimulus is Keynes made it pretty clear it should be targeted.
The multipliers only work when the funds are kept in the domestic economy plus go directly to the people, the workers, the "consumer".
We never got a stimulus with a real direct jobs problem that keep the funds in the United States and made targeted investments to boot. Say critical infrastructure rebuilding as an example.
Or a state sponsored VC fund where it was required all workers must be U.S. citizens and all production must stay inside the United States, as another.
But bottom line the U.S. economy is smaller than Q4 2007. Plus we have massive people unemployed, on social services to survive and so on, so I like your piece acting like this ratio is static or some real common sense policy and bills wouldn't help the situation out.
Thats...where the snow is thick now. We have all of the politicians touting corporate lobbyist agendas as "jobs" programs and it's positively disgusting.
Trade deals which will lost thousands of jobs, patent law that's all about multinational corporations and nothing about the U.S. innovator...
and these insane GOP who try to claim some tax loophole which makes it even more profitable to offshore outsource jobs is some sort of "jobs program".
No wonder the globe laughs at us now.
There you go again ... critical thinking, questioning authority ... rather than meek acceptance of the latest okeydoke from approved pundits!
Oh my.
Talk about obsessions with precious bodily fluids. Sam's lucky it's just the blood they're after.
If you look at the doctors, you need to ask, "Where were they trained?" That will tell you their diagnostic skills and ability to perform procedures. Many of them have no training, there are a few barbers, and the head of research, Tom "Bug Spray" DeLay has danced himself off to prison somewhere (or not). Their lack of training doesn't stop them.
Poor Uncle Sam. He's tied down like Gulliver but this is no satire. It's become farce with a an all male cast of hysterics. Male hysterics, only in our nation's capital.
Sam needs the good Dr. House, not the charlatans operating now. We can only hope that all the quacks, including the Quack in Chief, lose their licenses and obtain the status of persona non grata. That would get us all well.
Sadly, that is exactly what went on too.
Click on this link for a fully illustrated explanation of what went on with "debt negotiations".
Now, I think the fiction is spinning loudly now. We have all sorts of people claiming policies and bills which are project to lose jobs will gain jobs.
It's insane. Right now the bad trade deals are projected to lost at least 200k more jobs.
First to file patents is a disaster, it will turn the small inventory into toast, won't stand a prayer's chance and turn our patent system into something akin to Europe's and elsewhere.
We know how great their innovation engine is ....not.
So, we have bad trade deals, tax holidays that enable more offshore outsourcing, double dutch tax loopholes which really help Ireland get some jobs and of course the never ending demand to really labor arbitrage Americans by turning our education system into a glorified green card ATM, corporate sponsored of course!
I guess hand counting is a pretty good full employment program, but all we really need is durable paper or cardboard ballots that can be machine-counted first followed by automatic hand-counts of random samples, with sample size large enough for 95% to 99% confidence.
This check should be required in every election large enough to make hand-counting unwieldy. The idea of requiring hand recounts (or any recounts) only when the margin between two candidates in less than 3% or whatever ... is patently ridiculous given what we know of computer ("machine") counting of ballots and the ease of hacking that process. It's like closing the side door to the barn when the big doors are swinging wide in the wind.
Meanwhile, we have states in the U.S. (Georgia?) where there is virtually no paper trail whatsoever.
"Its not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes." -- Josef ('Uncle Joe') Stalin
“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile - hoping it will eat him last.” -- Winston Churchill
BTW: What I meant about not judging "the merits on either side of the Russo-Georgian (South Ossetia) war" is just that I had and still have no dog in that fight. In my opinion, the whole thing could best be seen as an opportunistic attempt at reviving the ancient rivalry between Rome and Constantinople -- transposed to Paris/Berlin and St. Petersburg/Moscow.
seems to know real time every single purchase and can call you with a flag if they suspect something funky almost immediately.
They all are in India.
Like in Romania under Ceeausescu where they kept police files of all typewriters with imprint of the keys or East Germany where the Stasi recorded conversations and kept meticulous records. Plenty of informers on the payroll. I just hope they don't offshore these jobs -- could be a great opportunity for new bureau and lots of contractors. Nation building begins at home!
Folks must not read the details in numbers or something, for the super bad news on PCE as part of the GDP report.
But if they read this site, we estimated PCE would flat line for Q2 and that didn't even include the revisions, so this shouldn't be this huge surprise.
I cannot believe the extremes going on to "profile" people. From marketing to now this, it's friggin' pathetic.
How much money can all of this data possibly be worth and I can guarantee there are a host of algorithms out there that are bogus in conclusions.
It's ridiculous, 70% does not 100% make in human choices and behavior.
It's extremely important to know how they're spying. I just presume they know anything they want. The good news is that unless you're very wide read, they don't bother with you. Readers and commenters are further down the chain. Pretty soon they list will be an absolute majority, a de facto recall petition.
Thanks!
Don't worry your corporate masters will soon know the names of everyone reading this site.
A bill has just been passed which requires all ISPs to log all its customers and keep a record of the internet sites they visit for 'law enforcement purposes'
http://yro.slashdot.org/firehose.pl?op=view&type=story&sid=11/07/29/194213
"I am not here judging the merits on either side of the Russo-Georgian (South Ossetia) war"?? But why not? McCain was in dangerous territory here -- it took us decades and a trillion dollars to avoid going to war with Russia. But to go to war with Russia over NATO's designs on Georgia? Makes no sense unless yu're willing to (a) make the earth uninhabitable or (b) fight a very costly land war (think of Russian battle deaths in WWII), which we would probably lose. But the other great risk is having Phil Gramm (remember Glass-Steagall repeal and derivatives?) in charge of economic policy. I'll leave it to you to decide which is worserer -- I say all of the above. And so by default we get the current White House as a bunch of brie-eating surrender monkeys in Armani suits. One of their brightest was Peter Orszag (too bad he left) who said recently "Let the tax cuts expire." I couldn't imagine Gramm doing that. Too bad Obama didn't listen to his best advisor.
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