I waver between thinking things are so bad now that my countrymen and women can't do otherwise than solve problems through demanding campaign finance reform and the separation of corporation and state (meaning OK, no corporate tax; but in exchange no give-outs, no market distortions, no lobbying, and we stick to defending our human electorate) and listening to the man or woman on the street exclaim over some petty moral issue on either side of the fence. I wish I knew which way this would go - it's the uncertainty that's killing me.
That's just god awful actually but not surprising, I'm wondering if this can be blamed on increased productivity due to technological advances. (that's rare for me to bring that up), but very good research, thanks for bringing it to people's attention.
Obama's going to need those politically-aware volunteers at the local level in 2011, but all he seems to be able to do is alienate his core voters. He must calculate that the game is 100% corporate money and corporate media -- or maybe corporate vote counting?
Either that, or he is counting on the GOP to put on a major clown act in 2012.
Or just praying for some kind of miracle.
Or maybe, Obama is like a great general presiding over a strategically necessary slaughter of his own forces, like Stalin's incredible misdirection of the Red Army's defense against the Wehrmacht's onslaught in 1941.
With friends like these -- Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt Institute, good friends of American working families, sponsor of New Deal 2.0 -- Obama hardly needs any enemies.
I don't think there's anything wrong with the start-ups small-business-creates-jobs theory, as such. Problem is that, like many another great economic theory, there are important preconditions that must first be satisfied.
I'll give the cons their due -- an important precondition would be NOT the 2010 Affordable Health Care Act.
But I'll also give the progressives their due -- an important precondition would be Single Payer or some other 'socialist' scheme, plus, NOT more FTAs.
And, for my 2¢, an important precondition would be some kind of return to protectionism, elimination of tax loopholes favoring MNCs, some way to free domestic producers from being forced to subsidize their foreign competition.
Put down that copy of David Cay Johnston's Perfectly Legal: The Covert Campaign to Rig Our Tax System to Benefit the Super Rich - and Cheat Everybody Else -- no sex angle there!
Get rid of Paul Craig Roberts' Is Fiinancial Globalization Beginning a Process of Reversal?
There's more IMPORTANT news!
Nafissatou Diallo and Dominque Strauss-Kahn!
This story's got it all -- documented gossip about everything from immigration scams to socialist do-gooder subsidized apartments in Manhattan to money laundering to financial hanky-panky around Greek bonds!
There's an old saying among 'criminal lawyers' (almost as interesting a term as 'criminal law') that you can beat the charge but you can never beat the rap. This was widely applied to who was it? -- oh, yeah, that OJ guy!
Anyway, here's the IMPORTANT news about the unfortunate Dominique Strauss-Kahn -- important here at EP because of the connection with how the IMF may or may not have been handling bonds issued by, or to be issued by, the government of Greece and possible related financial (as distinguished from sexual) hanky-panky --
See, my comment back on 1 July 2011, titled'Economic aspect of the case' at Robert Oak's 'We Don't Believe Her' (and my earlier comments back into May) linking to remarks of Forrest Cookson at DebateRX, 'Deep Doings at the IMF' (more than 6,000 viewings, not bad for a little independent blogger out of Bangladesh).
Prosecutors in New York have filed papers recommending some or all charges in the sex assault case against former International Monetary Fund leader Dominique Strauss-Kahn case be dropped.
The rap:
Prosecutors said July 1 they'd found the maid had told them a series of troubling falsehoods, including a persuasive but phony account of having been gang-raped in her native Guinea. She said she was echoing a story she'd told to enhance her 2003 application for political asylum.
Furthermore, she [Diallo] had alluded to Strauss-Kahn's wealth in a recorded phone conversation with a jailed friend, and her bank account had been a repository for tens of thousands of dollars she couldn't explain, a law enforcement official has said.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn may have more to worry about than a possible prison sentence.
The IMF chief's alleged sex-assault victim lives in a Bronx apartment rented exclusively for adults with HIV or AIDS, The Post has learned.
The hotel maid, a West African immigrant, has occupied the fourth-floor High Bridge pad with her 15-year-old daughter since January -- and before that, lived in another Bronx apartment set aside by Harlem Community AIDS United strictly for adults with the virus and their families.
The Post has not been able to ascertain whether the maid, 32, has HIV/AIDS because of medical confidentiality laws.
But the agency [Harlem United] rents apartments only for adults with the disease. A Harlem United worker said at least one adult in the household has to be HIV-positive or have AIDS to qualify for one of their units. A healthy adult with a child with HIV or AIDS is not eligible.
"The [current] apartment isn't rented under her name. Harlem [Community AIDS] United places their tenants in our building," explained an employee of the apartment building's property manager, Chaim Gross, of Brooklyn. ....
Her lawyer, Jeffrey Shapiro, and a close family friend said the chambermaid is a widow who lives alone with her [15-year-old] daughter. Public records list her as the only adult in the current apartment and the only adult having lived in her previous apartment.
Neighbors also say it was just her and the child in both places.
Okay, that's enough. Where did I put my free download of Paul Craig Roberts?
The question posed by Paul Craig Roberts reduces to "Is the world system of financial capitalism subject to fundamentals?" We could compare that to a question like "Is Disney World a suitable model for civilization?"
I think that just as surely as all men are animals implies that all men are mortal ... just as surely as all things come to an end ... even King Gold is mortal. And when the public comes to that realization, the world system of financial capitalism will once again consider itself to be immortal ... but in that regard, every world system is delusional.
Meanwhile, although banks are still stressed by Europe news, the stock market is said to be stabilizing today (22 August 2011). Paradoxically, gold still rides high and the reign of the Gold King continues.
What we should be watching more than the US$ price of gold and much more than US$ "targets" for gold (e.g., Ron Paul's $5000 per ounce) is US$ adjusted for inflation, production volume (including reclamation) and trading volume.
We may be nearing a situation where prices remain high because few buy, few also want to sell. When volume is low enough, reported trading prices inevitably become meaningless as they can be manipulated by a few gold holders or brokers selling and buying among themselves.
Gold prices retreated from early record highs near $1,900 an ounce on Monday, as a rebound in stock markets from last week's lows gathered pace, denting interest in so-called safe haven assets like German bunds and bullion. Although they could not hold their early gains, prices remain elevated ...
With gold, you have to consider not only Wall Street or Main Street, as you have to consider "the street" all over the world. If you find numbers for Wall Street to be elusive and numbers for Main Street to be controversial ... try numbers from "the street" all over the world!
Bangkok Post cites Thailand's Gold Traders Association president Jitti Tangsithpakdi to the effect that "people rushed to gold shops along Yaowarat Road. There were more buyers than sellers and some shops ran short of gold bars."
Jitti Tangsithpakdi: "Some gold shops had to give out booking tickets so their customers can make the purchase next week.
"This is not normal because gold prices are high but people continue to buy gold and not many are selling it .....
"There is a chance that the global gold price could reach US$2,000 per ounce by the end of this year, as foreign analysts predicted, due to the declining world economy. Many investors and funds have begun to speculate on gold, causing the prices to hit $1,869 per ounce .... "
He [Jitti Tangsithpakdi] said small gold traders would be the first to get hurt if gold prices went down without warning.
"People should be cautious about gold speculation as there can be a lot of fluctuation in gold prices. When there's a possibility that gold prices will soar, there's also a possibility that they will fall quickly," Mr Jitti [Tangsithpakdi] said.
There is an excellent discussion going on, along with an online poll, available at a Wall Street Journal webpage, online.wsj.com --
For example, Ryan Shells (22 August 2011) opines:
Gold is an emotional commodity. Is it worth $2,000 per ounce? Well, I would think not. Most people can do without it. It would make sense that the only time gold should be expensive is when people have a lot of money to spend on it ... Most people are going to the jewelry store to sell their gold. That is an indication prices are too high. Most of the buyers of gold are investors who are hoarding it, which has created a sustained bubble that will come apart as soon as there is a modest amount of profit taking. Gold isn't worth $2,000 per ounce. Just 2 years ago, traders valued it at less than $800 per ounce. Historically they say it is the cost of a domestically produced suit. Today, you can buy an American made suit for $1,000, so that would be a more accurate price of gold. If you think with your head, you will be a smarter investor in gold. I personally would recommend people to short gold. [However, Ryan Shells admits he isn't doing that!] In 1980, gold hit $825 per ounce, indexed for inflation, that would be $2,200 today. However, that was a gold peak in price, and over the next two years, gold fell to $300 per ounce, leaving investors with a + 60% loss if they got in near the peak. That is about as bad as the 2008 financial collapse.
However, Michael Smith has a different opinion, not exactly free of political passion:
$10,000/ounce before it peaks. That may sound high, but it factors in the declining dollar, as the economy slips farther into the dip, a'la 1931. It is starting to look like the 1932 election year. I wonder if Republicans will compare Obama to Hoover. It would be absurdly ironic and politically fitting.
But financial advisor Hal E. Berger (August 22) writes:
Gold is an interesting bubble. As a financial professional I have learned over the last +/-20 years that many times when small investors charge into an investment area, eg gold, it is an indicator it is about to crash. Gold is an investment that can not be used as legal tender and is better suited to industry and government transfers than individuals. When this ends a lot of small investors buying from the endless stream of cable ads are going to be hurt.
I continue my speculation (with words rather than with my hard-earned dollars) that the Gold King continues to ride high, but there will be a decline in the price of gold in about a month, and that will correlate with what will be celebrated as a bull market in equity markets following the President's signing of Super Congress legislation, including several FTAs and despite continuing bad numbers for U.S. employment. That's possible, since US economy and NYSE are not necessarily coupled as has been classically presumed. Holding equity in MNCs may be seen as a hedge against US $ dollar inflation just as much as gold!
Are we (US) a first world nation like members of the EU or are we a third world nation? We need to keep in mind that in third world nations. the national stock exchange operates independently of little changes that affect the impoverished masses. Indeed, stock market averages may be inversely related to the impoverishment of the masses!
At first I didn't think so, but you have put this note-worthy discussion of China banking at the right place!
I am in the middle of scrutinizing all four videos carefully. But I'm not sure that it would be of interest to everyone -- maybe not up to the FMN standard in that way. The viewer has to be willing to put some mental energy into trying to see things from the point of view of Beijing or Shanghai.
I found it puzzling the way these guys more or less shrugged off monetarism. They didn't use the term 'fiat money' but that was the way they looked at things, talking about "printing up" money. I mean, we all understand the importance of keeping money supply right and transparency and all, but is the People's Bank the only central bank in the world that "prints up" money? I have this idea that the Federal Reserve effectively does that too. And is "printing" money in and of itself a bad thing? Of course, it's wrong the way it's done, but monetarism itself isn't the problem, or, if it is, JP Morgan is in deep doodoo.
(Since I am a supporter of the American Monetary Institute, I have a particular opinion on all this. And, beyond AMI, I hold the work of Henry C. Simons very high, even though I am fundamentally a protectionist whereas Simons was the opposite at the end of World War II, without the experiential knowledge of globalism that we have today. Of course, Simons, founder of the original 'Chicago School', advocated for a publicly owned banking system, at least for public ownership and control of the Federal Reserve, if not more.)
I understand that these guys are not meeting to discuss monetary theory. But they are discussing a huge experiment in monetarism. And they bring their theoretical prejudices with them (which doesn't make their empirical observations less valid).
Everything discussed brings Singapore to mind. Of course, China is huge, Singapore is tiny. But there are many similarities in their economies, such as the numerous "entities" that are actually government-run and public-funded and/or public-owned, even when foreign capital is involved.
Here's a remarkable factoid, assuming that these guys have the numbers: they say that China (I believe that means People's Bank of China, the government-run central bank) is currently increasing money supply some 15% to 20% per year. They don't have much population growth and I don't believe that even China's economy is growing 15% per year or that their savings in real terms are increasing 20% per year.
It's complicated. Really complicated. Like Singapore, there's a lot more government in everything and everywhere than is visible on the surface.
See, David Cay Johnston's Reuters column on Singapore (including comments) -
How's this for reality-based economics? Here's why it's relevant here at EP: the global gold market is as much about mass (herd) psychology as it is about either fundamental or technical analysis of commodity markets. (See, e..g., Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.)
I continue my analysis of gold in the current global situation, namely that gold will continue to ride high for another month or so, but that there will be a moderating realism probably about the same time as Obama signs off on Super Congress legislation.
However, there's one item about November that may be significant.
Image above is from video "11-11-11, Astrology and Prophecy" at YouTube --
I can't explain it except astronomically or biblically, but something big may hit on or about November 11, 2011, although by numerological analysis it could hit the 5th, 14th or 23rd as well. Not concerning gold exactly, but something else, something that will deliver a shock around the world -- not necessarily bad and maybe even benign (especially if what happens is nothing).
We don't have to go to interpretations of the Book of Revelations to understand this point. Whether a US citizen is bullish on gold, up to and including the $5000 or the $10,000 'target', seems to directly correlate with a negative emotional response to, e.g., the word 'Obama'. I think pictures could be even better than the name in print or spoken, but I feel confident that such a correlation could be shown using standard psychological experimentation methodology. Of course, there is a fundamentals aspect to gold that cannot be denied, but does that really justify rationally holding onto gold until it hits $10,000 ... or even thinking in such terms? I mean, if it's going to get that bad, that fast, criminalization and even confiscation of gold becomes as likely as anything else! (Much more likely than criminalization and confiscation of personal firearms, IMO.)
If nothing much happens in November, then gold will likely go back to its former status as a commodity, neither more nor less, and the great bull market in gold will be forgotten for 2012 except in news roundups of 2011. Much depends on capacity of producers, but there's no more reason to be concerned about the exhaustion of gold than there is to be concerned about the exhaustion of oil or high grade ("steel") coal, and many others.
Of course, gold will continue as a hedge against inflation, but not the only such hedge.
'Dr. Doom' Roubini "is predicting social unrest will spread." -- Robert Oak
I believe that sixty years of global social instability was predicted by Columbia University sociologist 'Dr. World System' Immanuel Wallerstein at the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre even before the events of 9/11/2001. (Wallerstein is primary developer of World System Analysis school of sociology and history and a critic of the WTO world system.)
There is a user guide over on the right hand side and an admin forum. The rules are basically don't break the site and check your HTML/XHTML code. Get enough errors it can screw up the layout, but it really matters when authoring, the comments are "isolated" more in this regard. Then, the site does have a host of scripts to check for errors and limits, strippers and so on to keep out funky and worse stuff, but I can't catch everything.
Other than that, we LOVE graphs and youtubes. Just pick a smaller display window to fit in the comment box and you're good.
We have the ability to display images, scale them, any media, mathematical equations and even a little graphing of data from posts. If it works, has small server load, can display with fast page load and people want something, I'm game to add it.
anything that turns numbers into concepts and more absorbed information I'm into. The biggest crime on EP is to write economic fiction (on purpose, as an agenda).
More data and facts the better and thank you very much! I have no idea why I keep up this site, beyond I just get so into the data and facts myself, so they are almost like my own exploratory notes in a lot of ways, thoughts.
But it's a ton of work so glad folks appreciate the effort!
The never ending stream of are you kidding me???? bogus economic actions, policy, corporate lobbyist, Wall Street, globalist agenda cloaked in economic fictional white paper ramblings keeps us up and running 24/7!
Look at Bloomberg. They had to sift through 29k+ pages of transactions to tabulate this all out, after something like 3 years fighting the Fed to get the data even released to put together the aggregate data and corresponding story. That, my friends is not a volunteer effort and why we need paid press.
But we have an additional problem here, in the U.S. are "strong forces" for "economic creationism" and this psychos are busy mixing religious fundamentalism with insane economic agendas, such as "free markets solve everything" and "destroy social safety nets at all costs"....
and they get their flock to be mesmerized with their economic fiction as much as they pray to Jesus. It's no joke as we see by the GOP Presidential field.
Then, on the other side, we have pure corporate lobbyists and Wall Street running the White House as well as most of Democrats.
Pretty astounding these economic creationists if you think about it, True Christianity was interested in social equality and helping the poor, the under trodden. Not this new bunch, I think of them as Economic Nazis. I'm sorry, yes that's a harsh analogy and over used, but they scare the crap out of me because the U.S. economy as it is is on the brink, and that brink is caused by corporate lobbyists and their globalization agenda, with a sprinkling of absurd special interest groups....
So, what to do? This site will not under any circumstances advocate violence or any such stuff, so I guess the Ratigan constitutional amendment to get big money out of politics completely seems like a good start.
But this cultism of the radical right is downright scary and reminds me so much of how the Nazis mesmerized the nation and got into power in so many ways.
I know this is news, but is there anyone who is not exhausted with this story? Better yet, is there anyone who thinks this will change the dynamics....at all? I know and You know, plutocrats One gazillion and labor -15 trillion with interest and late fees. I don't advocate violence but, is there any other solution to this theft? At the very least a vote of confidence on the entire gooberment, rather than another fraudulent election.
At least in productivity, Farm accounts for about 1% of economic activity. You are right on nonfarm for state data releases....and let's face it, AG is also ignored because it's front loaded with illegal labor too. I think you mean painted red, as in there would be many more states with > 10% unemployment rates. Assuredly true.
If you just did U6, ignore FARM, most of the map would turn red.
Analyzing state data is a true blue project, there are 50 individual data sets to look at, not for the faint of heart. Of course since Texas is being declared a "miracle" due to the never ending economic creationism going on, I might do a piece on just North Dakota, for they have been doing exceeding well the entire time, they have a state bank, a host of policies different from the rest of the nation and it's even more impressive considering the landscape and weather there is like hell on Earth. Sorry ND, not exactly a vacation spot in my experience.
I need to get some mapping software going here, and of course nothing easy to use that's free or cheap so far. But to me, that's the only way to manage state data unless one does each State by itself as a post. (that's 50 posts! 51 if you include D.C. and it should be).
Well, China's currency manipulation (and it's rarely mentioned this is the reason they buy up U.S. Treasuries, they have to in order to manipulate their currency), clearly enables them to undercut the U.S. in overall costs as well as labor costs.
This is interesting. Capital flows, esp. the never ending herd "all rush to EE's" behavior, is something few have really analyzed and I was noticing this from our lovely globalists as somehow a "good" thing to globalize finance and freely play nation-states against each other around the globe.
Germany, France have strong labor laws, a host of policies that keep their wages high, unions strong and jobs in Germany France, so there is much more to that story.
But interesting view, some analysis would be awesome.
Outsourcing is a monetary phenomenon that depends on continued world inflation. In order for foreign labor costs to be artifically cheaper based on exchange rates; foreign countries have to keep creating new money out of thin air faster then the US. Labor arbitrage and trade today is nothing more than a money printing out of thin air game.
The reason not many jobs have been created in the US with the money printing stimulus packages is because the tax cuts and stimulus money created out of thin air have been used to fund the outsourcing of jobs, factories, technology transfers overseas, wars, overseas military bases, infrastructure projects abroad, commodities speculation and the consumption of foreign subsidized manufactured goods.
Yes taxes in the US could be lower because on paper they are high but the big multinational corporations don’t pay much tax anyway and get free services from government like the US military making the world safe for outsourcing. Even if taxes were set to zero in US, the multinationals would still find an excuse to outsource because countries that manipulate their exchange rates by creating new money out of thin air faster then the US would still make foreign labor costs artificially cheaper. The reason that tax cuts are not creating jobs in the US is because the money is being used to consume foreign subsidized manufactured goods and is being used to build factories overseas.
Japan, Germany and China are an interesting mix of countries because they have higher and lower taxes, higher and lower regulations, higher and lower valued exchange rates, higher and lower labor costs, higher and lower inflation then the US but yet they all have trade surpluses and a growing economy. The reason they have trade surplus, a growing economy and lower unemployment than the US is because the money they create no matter how distorting it can be to the economy is used to fund production and industrial activity within their countries.
Could I just say that I love reading your comments? Every time I do I learn about something new I'll need to research in my free time.
I waver between thinking things are so bad now that my countrymen and women can't do otherwise than solve problems through demanding campaign finance reform and the separation of corporation and state (meaning OK, no corporate tax; but in exchange no give-outs, no market distortions, no lobbying, and we stick to defending our human electorate) and listening to the man or woman on the street exclaim over some petty moral issue on either side of the fence. I wish I knew which way this would go - it's the uncertainty that's killing me.
That's just god awful actually but not surprising, I'm wondering if this can be blamed on increased productivity due to technological advances. (that's rare for me to bring that up), but very good research, thanks for bringing it to people's attention.
Obama's going to need those politically-aware volunteers at the local level in 2011, but all he seems to be able to do is alienate his core voters. He must calculate that the game is 100% corporate money and corporate media -- or maybe corporate vote counting?
Either that, or he is counting on the GOP to put on a major clown act in 2012.
Or just praying for some kind of miracle.
Or maybe, Obama is like a great general presiding over a strategically necessary slaughter of his own forces, like Stalin's incredible misdirection of the Red Army's defense against the Wehrmacht's onslaught in 1941.
See, currently linked (at EP) New Deal 2.0's On the Obama Administration's Pressuring of NY Attorney General Office -- heavy-duty lifting on behalf of increasing profitability of the financial sector.
With friends like these -- Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt Institute, good friends of American working families, sponsor of New Deal 2.0 -- Obama hardly needs any enemies.
Check out John Robertson's The new firm employment puzzle at Atlanta Fed's microblog.
I don't think there's anything wrong with the start-ups small-business-creates-jobs theory, as such. Problem is that, like many another great economic theory, there are important preconditions that must first be satisfied.
I'll give the cons their due -- an important precondition would be NOT the 2010 Affordable Health Care Act.
But I'll also give the progressives their due -- an important precondition would be Single Payer or some other 'socialist' scheme, plus, NOT more FTAs.
And, for my 2¢, an important precondition would be some kind of return to protectionism, elimination of tax loopholes favoring MNCs, some way to free domestic producers from being forced to subsidize their foreign competition.
Yes, looks like Philly all over again.
Let's see what the reports are from Out West.
(By 'Out West' I mean approximately the states included in the Ninth Circuit.)
Put down that copy of David Cay Johnston's Perfectly Legal: The Covert Campaign to Rig Our Tax System to Benefit the Super Rich - and Cheat Everybody Else -- no sex angle there!
Get rid of Paul Craig Roberts' Is Fiinancial Globalization Beginning a Process of Reversal?
There's more IMPORTANT news!
Nafissatou Diallo and Dominque Strauss-Kahn!
This story's got it all -- documented gossip about everything from immigration scams to socialist do-gooder subsidized apartments in Manhattan to money laundering to financial hanky-panky around Greek bonds!
There's an old saying among 'criminal lawyers' (almost as interesting a term as 'criminal law') that you can beat the charge but you can never beat the rap. This was widely applied to who was it? -- oh, yeah, that OJ guy!
Anyway, here's the IMPORTANT news about the unfortunate Dominique Strauss-Kahn -- important here at EP because of the connection with how the IMF may or may not have been handling bonds issued by, or to be issued by, the government of Greece and possible related financial (as distinguished from sexual) hanky-panky --
See, my comment back on 1 July 2011, titled 'Economic aspect of the case' at Robert Oak's 'We Don't Believe Her' (and my earlier comments back into May) linking to remarks of Forrest Cookson at DebateRX, 'Deep Doings at the IMF' (more than 6,000 viewings, not bad for a little independent blogger out of Bangladesh).
From KABC (New York) --
The news:
The rap:
But the rap goes on!
According to New York Post exclusive --
Okay, that's enough. Where did I put my free download of Paul Craig Roberts?
[Links verified as of posting.]
The question posed by Paul Craig Roberts reduces to "Is the world system of financial capitalism subject to fundamentals?" We could compare that to a question like "Is Disney World a suitable model for civilization?"
I think that just as surely as all men are animals implies that all men are mortal ... just as surely as all things come to an end ... even King Gold is mortal. And when the public comes to that realization, the world system of financial capitalism will once again consider itself to be immortal ... but in that regard, every world system is delusional.
Meanwhile, although banks are still stressed by Europe news, the stock market is said to be stabilizing today (22 August 2011). Paradoxically, gold still rides high and the reign of the Gold King continues.
What we should be watching more than the US$ price of gold and much more than US$ "targets" for gold (e.g., Ron Paul's $5000 per ounce) is US$ adjusted for inflation, production volume (including reclamation) and trading volume.
Graph from RealTerms.de via Wikipedia (released by owner to public domain)
We may be nearing a situation where prices remain high because few buy, few also want to sell. When volume is low enough, reported trading prices inevitably become meaningless as they can be manipulated by a few gold holders or brokers selling and buying among themselves.
Excerpting for review purposes from Jan Harvey, writing in London for Reuters via NewsFeedResearcher.com
With gold, you have to consider not only Wall Street or Main Street, as you have to consider "the street" all over the world. If you find numbers for Wall Street to be elusive and numbers for Main Street to be controversial ... try numbers from "the street" all over the world!
From the Bangkok Post (August 22 in USA/August 23 in Bangkok) --
There is an excellent discussion going on, along with an online poll, available at a Wall Street Journal webpage, online.wsj.com --
For example, Ryan Shells (22 August 2011) opines:
However, Michael Smith has a different opinion, not exactly free of political passion:
But financial advisor Hal E. Berger (August 22) writes:
I continue my speculation (with words rather than with my hard-earned dollars) that the Gold King continues to ride high, but there will be a decline in the price of gold in about a month, and that will correlate with what will be celebrated as a bull market in equity markets following the President's signing of Super Congress legislation, including several FTAs and despite continuing bad numbers for U.S. employment. That's possible, since US economy and NYSE are not necessarily coupled as has been classically presumed. Holding equity in MNCs may be seen as a hedge against US $ dollar inflation just as much as gold!
Are we (US) a first world nation like members of the EU or are we a third world nation? We need to keep in mind that in third world nations. the national stock exchange operates independently of little changes that affect the impoverished masses. Indeed, stock market averages may be inversely related to the impoverishment of the masses!
Is there no ring of truth in the observation that "gold is an emotional commodity"?
[NOTE: All links tested as of posting, but some of them may go away tomorrow or so.]
At first I didn't think so, but you have put this note-worthy discussion of China banking at the right place!
I am in the middle of scrutinizing all four videos carefully. But I'm not sure that it would be of interest to everyone -- maybe not up to the FMN standard in that way. The viewer has to be willing to put some mental energy into trying to see things from the point of view of Beijing or Shanghai.
I found it puzzling the way these guys more or less shrugged off monetarism. They didn't use the term 'fiat money' but that was the way they looked at things, talking about "printing up" money. I mean, we all understand the importance of keeping money supply right and transparency and all, but is the People's Bank the only central bank in the world that "prints up" money? I have this idea that the Federal Reserve effectively does that too. And is "printing" money in and of itself a bad thing? Of course, it's wrong the way it's done, but monetarism itself isn't the problem, or, if it is, JP Morgan is in deep doodoo.
(Since I am a supporter of the American Monetary Institute, I have a particular opinion on all this. And, beyond AMI, I hold the work of Henry C. Simons very high, even though I am fundamentally a protectionist whereas Simons was the opposite at the end of World War II, without the experiential knowledge of globalism that we have today. Of course, Simons, founder of the original 'Chicago School', advocated for a publicly owned banking system, at least for public ownership and control of the Federal Reserve, if not more.)
I understand that these guys are not meeting to discuss monetary theory. But they are discussing a huge experiment in monetarism. And they bring their theoretical prejudices with them (which doesn't make their empirical observations less valid).
Everything discussed brings Singapore to mind. Of course, China is huge, Singapore is tiny. But there are many similarities in their economies, such as the numerous "entities" that are actually government-run and public-funded and/or public-owned, even when foreign capital is involved.
Here's a remarkable factoid, assuming that these guys have the numbers: they say that China (I believe that means People's Bank of China, the government-run central bank) is currently increasing money supply some 15% to 20% per year. They don't have much population growth and I don't believe that even China's economy is growing 15% per year or that their savings in real terms are increasing 20% per year.
It's complicated. Really complicated. Like Singapore, there's a lot more government in everything and everywhere than is visible on the surface.
See, David Cay Johnston's Reuters column on Singapore (including comments) -
Think Sinagpore is a Low-Tax Haven?
How's this for reality-based economics? Here's why it's relevant here at EP: the global gold market is as much about mass (herd) psychology as it is about either fundamental or technical analysis of commodity markets. (See, e..g., Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds.)
I continue my analysis of gold in the current global situation, namely that gold will continue to ride high for another month or so, but that there will be a moderating realism probably about the same time as Obama signs off on Super Congress legislation.
However, there's one item about November that may be significant.
Image above is from video "11-11-11, Astrology and Prophecy" at YouTube --
November 11, 2011
I can't explain it except astronomically or biblically, but something big may hit on or about November 11, 2011, although by numerological analysis it could hit the 5th, 14th or 23rd as well. Not concerning gold exactly, but something else, something that will deliver a shock around the world -- not necessarily bad and maybe even benign (especially if what happens is nothing).
We don't have to go to interpretations of the Book of Revelations to understand this point. Whether a US citizen is bullish on gold, up to and including the $5000 or the $10,000 'target', seems to directly correlate with a negative emotional response to, e.g., the word 'Obama'. I think pictures could be even better than the name in print or spoken, but I feel confident that such a correlation could be shown using standard psychological experimentation methodology. Of course, there is a fundamentals aspect to gold that cannot be denied, but does that really justify rationally holding onto gold until it hits $10,000 ... or even thinking in such terms? I mean, if it's going to get that bad, that fast, criminalization and even confiscation of gold becomes as likely as anything else! (Much more likely than criminalization and confiscation of personal firearms, IMO.)
If nothing much happens in November, then gold will likely go back to its former status as a commodity, neither more nor less, and the great bull market in gold will be forgotten for 2012 except in news roundups of 2011. Much depends on capacity of producers, but there's no more reason to be concerned about the exhaustion of gold than there is to be concerned about the exhaustion of oil or high grade ("steel") coal, and many others.
Of course, gold will continue as a hedge against inflation, but not the only such hedge.
I believe that sixty years of global social instability was predicted by Columbia University sociologist 'Dr. World System' Immanuel Wallerstein at the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre even before the events of 9/11/2001. (Wallerstein is primary developer of World System Analysis school of sociology and history and a critic of the WTO world system.)
State taxes, especially sales tax in some states.
Nonetheless, very good work by Scooter.
There is a user guide over on the right hand side and an admin forum. The rules are basically don't break the site and check your HTML/XHTML code. Get enough errors it can screw up the layout, but it really matters when authoring, the comments are "isolated" more in this regard. Then, the site does have a host of scripts to check for errors and limits, strippers and so on to keep out funky and worse stuff, but I can't catch everything.
Other than that, we LOVE graphs and youtubes. Just pick a smaller display window to fit in the comment box and you're good.
We have the ability to display images, scale them, any media, mathematical equations and even a little graphing of data from posts. If it works, has small server load, can display with fast page load and people want something, I'm game to add it.
anything that turns numbers into concepts and more absorbed information I'm into. The biggest crime on EP is to write economic fiction (on purpose, as an agenda).
More data and facts the better and thank you very much! I have no idea why I keep up this site, beyond I just get so into the data and facts myself, so they are almost like my own exploratory notes in a lot of ways, thoughts.
But it's a ton of work so glad folks appreciate the effort!
Hezekiah Jones by Dylan....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AicfqEyOHvc...... Sorry if I am not supposed to post links I never read the rules.
[RO] edited to display the link for your enjoyment and as an example to display media in comments
Thank you for your work EP. I owe you and I know it. How about next Tuesday.
The never ending stream of are you kidding me???? bogus economic actions, policy, corporate lobbyist, Wall Street, globalist agenda cloaked in economic fictional white paper ramblings keeps us up and running 24/7!
Look at Bloomberg. They had to sift through 29k+ pages of transactions to tabulate this all out, after something like 3 years fighting the Fed to get the data even released to put together the aggregate data and corresponding story. That, my friends is not a volunteer effort and why we need paid press.
Dr. Doom Roubini is predicting social unrest will spread.
But we have an additional problem here, in the U.S. are "strong forces" for "economic creationism" and this psychos are busy mixing religious fundamentalism with insane economic agendas, such as "free markets solve everything" and "destroy social safety nets at all costs"....
and they get their flock to be mesmerized with their economic fiction as much as they pray to Jesus. It's no joke as we see by the GOP Presidential field.
Then, on the other side, we have pure corporate lobbyists and Wall Street running the White House as well as most of Democrats.
Pretty astounding these economic creationists if you think about it, True Christianity was interested in social equality and helping the poor, the under trodden. Not this new bunch, I think of them as Economic Nazis. I'm sorry, yes that's a harsh analogy and over used, but they scare the crap out of me because the U.S. economy as it is is on the brink, and that brink is caused by corporate lobbyists and their globalization agenda, with a sprinkling of absurd special interest groups....
So, what to do? This site will not under any circumstances advocate violence or any such stuff, so I guess the Ratigan constitutional amendment to get big money out of politics completely seems like a good start.
But this cultism of the radical right is downright scary and reminds me so much of how the Nazis mesmerized the nation and got into power in so many ways.
I know this is news, but is there anyone who is not exhausted with this story? Better yet, is there anyone who thinks this will change the dynamics....at all? I know and You know, plutocrats One gazillion and labor -15 trillion with interest and late fees. I don't advocate violence but, is there any other solution to this theft? At the very least a vote of confidence on the entire gooberment, rather than another fraudulent election.
At least in productivity, Farm accounts for about 1% of economic activity. You are right on nonfarm for state data releases....and let's face it, AG is also ignored because it's front loaded with illegal labor too. I think you mean painted red, as in there would be many more states with > 10% unemployment rates. Assuredly true.
If you just did U6, ignore FARM, most of the map would turn red.
Analyzing state data is a true blue project, there are 50 individual data sets to look at, not for the faint of heart. Of course since Texas is being declared a "miracle" due to the never ending economic creationism going on, I might do a piece on just North Dakota, for they have been doing exceeding well the entire time, they have a state bank, a host of policies different from the rest of the nation and it's even more impressive considering the landscape and weather there is like hell on Earth. Sorry ND, not exactly a vacation spot in my experience.
I need to get some mapping software going here, and of course nothing easy to use that's free or cheap so far. But to me, that's the only way to manage state data unless one does each State by itself as a post. (that's 50 posts! 51 if you include D.C. and it should be).
Well, China's currency manipulation (and it's rarely mentioned this is the reason they buy up U.S. Treasuries, they have to in order to manipulate their currency), clearly enables them to undercut the U.S. in overall costs as well as labor costs.
This is interesting. Capital flows, esp. the never ending herd "all rush to EE's" behavior, is something few have really analyzed and I was noticing this from our lovely globalists as somehow a "good" thing to globalize finance and freely play nation-states against each other around the globe.
Germany, France have strong labor laws, a host of policies that keep their wages high, unions strong and jobs in Germany France, so there is much more to that story.
But interesting view, some analysis would be awesome.
Outsourcing is a monetary phenomenon that depends on continued world inflation. In order for foreign labor costs to be artifically cheaper based on exchange rates; foreign countries have to keep creating new money out of thin air faster then the US. Labor arbitrage and trade today is nothing more than a money printing out of thin air game.
The reason not many jobs have been created in the US with the money printing stimulus packages is because the tax cuts and stimulus money created out of thin air have been used to fund the outsourcing of jobs, factories, technology transfers overseas, wars, overseas military bases, infrastructure projects abroad, commodities speculation and the consumption of foreign subsidized manufactured goods.
Yes taxes in the US could be lower because on paper they are high but the big multinational corporations don’t pay much tax anyway and get free services from government like the US military making the world safe for outsourcing. Even if taxes were set to zero in US, the multinationals would still find an excuse to outsource because countries that manipulate their exchange rates by creating new money out of thin air faster then the US would still make foreign labor costs artificially cheaper. The reason that tax cuts are not creating jobs in the US is because the money is being used to consume foreign subsidized manufactured goods and is being used to build factories overseas.
Japan, Germany and China are an interesting mix of countries because they have higher and lower taxes, higher and lower regulations, higher and lower valued exchange rates, higher and lower labor costs, higher and lower inflation then the US but yet they all have trade surpluses and a growing economy. The reason they have trade surplus, a growing economy and lower unemployment than the US is because the money they create no matter how distorting it can be to the economy is used to fund production and industrial activity within their countries.
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